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World Meteorological Organization WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION WMO TROPICAL METEOROLOGY PROGRAMME (TMP) COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (CAS) PROCEEDINGS OF THE WMO INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON TROPICAL CYCLONES (IWTC) (CO-SPONSORED BY UNDP AND OFDA) BANGKOK, 25 NOVEMBER - 5 DECEMBER 1985 Technical Document WMO/TD - No. 83 (TMP Report Series No. 21) WMO TROPICAL METEOROLOGY PROGRAMME 1. The long-term objectives of the WMO Tropical Meteorology Programme endorsed by the World Meteorological Congress (seventh (1975), eighth (1979) and ninth (1983)) are to enable WMO to: (a) Promote the co-ordination of Members' research efforts in relevant areas of tropical meteorology, by making the optimum use of data, both, those which are routinely available and those which are now becoming available from a number of tropical experiments (e.g. GATE, MONEX, WAMEX and FGGE) and the scientific results therefrom. This will lead to a better understanding of the behaviour of tropical weather systems and to an improvement in forecasts, and will thereby be of economic benefit to the community; (b) Ensure the effective transfer of scientific knowledge on methodologies so as to help in the application of research results to operational services in tropical countries; (c) Help scientists, especially those from developing countries, to participate in studies of tropical meteorology conducted elsewhere; (d) Provide advice to Members, on request, concerning research and training projects in tropical meteorology; (e) Encourage the exchange of information between Members concerning the up-to-date status of research in tropical meteorology. 2. The main components of the WMO Tropical Meteorology Programme will include work relating to the following research topics: (a) Tropical cyclones and associated storm surges; (b) Monsoon studies; (c) Meteorology of semi-arid zones and tropical droughts; (d) Rain-producing tropical disturbances; (e) Interactions between tropical and mid-latitudes weather systems; (f) Tropical limited area weather prediction modell.ing. 3. The overall strategy: WMO should act as a co-ordinator of research activities in tropical meteorology by keeping these activities under continuous review and taking the initiative, where appropriate, to ensure that the maximum benefit is derived from the effective transfer of scientific knowledge on methodologies so as to help in the application of research results to operational services in tropical countries. ,.,~"·~-;;~--~,,. /~ 0 I N (-'.~·,, /·"" ' -.'\ f,·.... "'~ ~~~~·\ loU C> tv1 , ._' '-~- \ ... ~... ' . {{l ... ~--- .,, ; ~. * \.~\' M () ~ / . .. I '(lt~ , ... t-::: '---~... :.~.:·. ,· i TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents i Foreword ii Acknowledgements iii Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: Summary 5 Chapter 3: Workshop recommendations 8 Chapter 4: The state-of-the-science on operational forecasting of tropical cyclones (by G. Holland and J. L. McBride) 16 Chapter 5: Topic 1 - Tropical cyclone global and regional climatology (by W. M. Gray) . • • • 25 Chapter 6: Topic 2 - Tropical cyclone structure (by J. L. McBride). • • . 37 Chapter 7: Topic 3 - Tropical cyclone formation ( by G. Love ) . • • • . • 46 Chapter 8: Topic 4 - Tropical cyclone intensity and structure change (by G. Holland) . • . • . • . • 52 Chapter 9: Topic 5 - Tropical cyclone motion (by L. Chen) 62 Chapter 10: Topic 6 - Numerical modelling of tropical cyclones (by T. Ki tade) • • • • . • . • • • . 74 Chapter 11: Topic 7 - Tropical cyclone measurement and analysis techniques (by R. C. Sheets) • • • . • 87 Chapter 12: Topic 8 - Tropical cyclone coastal impact (by C. P. Arafiles) . • . 99 Chapter 13: Topic 9 - Assessing and improving tropical cyclone forecast warnings (by R. L. Southern) . 112 Chapter 14: Workshop structure, daily schedule and survey • • 128 Annex I Workshop A - structure . 131 Annex II Worskhop B - structure . 136 Annex III IWTC Recommendation Committee 139 ·Annex IV Daily Schedule . 140 Annex V List of Participants . 141 FOREWORD The ·world Meteorological Organization attaches great importance to activities relating to tropical cyclones. One particular activity is the application of research results by Members to improve the issuance of the accurate and timely forecasts and warnings of tropical cyclones occurrence which are essential for the welfare of countries affected by these hazardous weather phenomena. Following the decisions made at Ninth Congress (1983) and the thirty-fifth (1983) and thirty-sixth (1984) sessions of the Executive Council and at the kind invitation of Thailand, the WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC) was organized with the eo-sponsorship of the United Nations Development Programme and the US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (US/OFDA). The programme of the workshop was developed by the International Programme Committee (Chairman, Professor W. M. Gray) as a special and unique gathering which brought together, for the first time, active tropical cyclone researchers, forecasters and warning specialists from all regions affected by tropical cyclones, including those from Members belonging to the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme regional bodies. The main objectives of the IWTC were: (a) to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on tropical cyclones from an integrated global perspective; (b) to report on these aspects and to offer recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the _varying needs of different regions. In-depth exchange of both practical and theoretical information_ and extensive discussions on the complex problems of tropical cyclones resulted in a number of useful recommendations concerning tropical cyclone forecasting, warning and research. An additional outcome was the establishment of better communication between tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters. Plans for future international co-operation between individuals and governments dealing with tropical cyclones were also developed. The present publication contains a summary of the state-of-the-science on the main topics prepared by the session chairmen and recommendations resulting from discussions held at the IWTC. I would like to thank all participants who attended the Workshop and devoted their time and knowledge to help in the advancement of global efforts for improved understanding of tropical cyclones. WMO is also grateful to the Governments and Permanent Representatives of Australia, China, France, USA, and USSR, for providing supplementary support which enabled additional participants to attend. I wish to take this opportunity to thank sincerely all members of the International Programme Committee, topic session chairmen, working group rapporteurs and those who assisted in the preparation of this publication for their valuable collaboration. ~~-~---- (G. 0. P. Obasi) Secretary-General iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The workshop benefited greatly from the devoted efforts made by many to make it a success. To name a few, special thanks go to the competent staff of the Thai Meteorological Department (especially Mrs. Soranee Sangmit, Chief, Local Organizing Secretariat) who helped with so many of the workshop arrangements in Bangkok and hosted the enjoyable social events which were carried out so well. WMO was also very fortunate to have had the excellent assistance of Mr. Wiphat Viriyachant (Secretary of ESCAP released with the kind agreement of Mr. A. S. Manalac, Chief, Natural Resources Division) in the typing and preparation of documents at the workshop. Special thanks must also be extended to Mrs. Barbara Brumit (assistant to Professor W. M. Gray) for the many duties she performed on behalf of the workshop in the preparation of pre-workshop material and her very competent supervision of the workshop's secretarial staff in Bangkok. WMO and its Members must also be thanked for having had the foresight to realize the significance of this event and thus of making provision for it. (Professor W. M. Gray) Chairman International Programme Committee CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION A. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE 1. In the implementation of the WMO Tropical Meteorology Programme (TMP) (formerly called the WMO Programme of Research in Tropical Meteorology), activities relating to tropical cyclone research were included as one of the major components. The World Meteorological Congress (Eighth (1979) and Ninth 0983)), requested that the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences, through its Working Group on Tropical Meteorology provide scientific advice and guidance on the development and implementation of the relevant TMP projects aiming at studying those problems that would help most Members in the tropics to improve their forecasting services and thereby benefit their national economy. 2. Following relevant directives of Congress and the Executive Council, a number of initiatives were taken by the CAS Working Group on Tropical Meteorology to prepare the scientific assessments of study areas related to tropical meteorology, tropical cyclones being one of them. This was the basis on which practical plans for the implementation of specific priority tropical cyclone research projects were subsequently developed. · 3. In his capacity as a member of the above-mentioned Working Group/Rapporteur on Tropical Cyclones, Professor W. M. Gray undertook a survey mission in 1978 to visit some 30 cyclone-affected countries to determine their interest and requirements for tropical cyclone research. The findings helped to further elaborate the tropical cyclone project implementation plan. The survey
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