Weak Links in a Dangerously Fractured Region: Fragile State As Global Threats Tasawar Ul-Rahim Baig Old Dominion University
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Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Graduate Program in International Studies Dissertations Summer 2014 Weak Links in a Dangerously Fractured Region: Fragile State as Global Threats Tasawar ul-Rahim Baig Old Dominion University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Baig, Tasawar u.. "Weak Links in a Dangerously Fractured Region: Fragile State as Global Threats" (2014). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/157a-h729 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/31 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WEAK LINKS IN A DANGEROUSLY FRACTURED REGION: FRAGILE STATE AS GLOBAL THREATS by Tasawar ul-Rahim Baig B.A. (Honours) December 2001, University of Karachi, Pakistan M.A. April 2003, University of Karachi, Pakistan M.A. March 2008, Lund University, Sweden A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY August 2014 p >roved by: imon Serfaty (Directo chulman (Member) ABSTRACT WEAK LINKS IN A DANGEROUSLY FRACTURED REGION: FRAGILE STATE AS GLOBAL THREATS Tasawar ul-Rahim Baig Old Dominion University, 2014 Director: Dr. Simon Serfaty In the post-9/11 period a common belief emerged that fragile states are launching pads for unprecedented and unconventional transnational threats. The rise of state fragility or state failure as a paradigm surfaced after the end of the Cold War, but their high risk factor was noticed only later. This is because increased interconnectedness allows information to spread faster and intensifies threat perceptions. This study recognizes that the idea of weak states, small states, and political decay existed before, and that the notion of state fragility has been widely used in recent years. The conventional wisdom about political decay refers to the ineffectiveness of institutions and corrupt governance structures which enfeeble the state, and which is similar to the current literature focused on domestic factors. To understand the fragility of statehood, the study answers the following research question: "Under what conditions do weak and fragile states continue to fail?" The analysis explores two core factors: endogenous and exogenous. The academic literature primarily focuses on endogenous factors, mainly political, security, economic, and social performance of states, to determine state capacity and capabilities. However, this study adds geography, or geopolitics, as an exogenous factor causing state fragility in many cases. Therefore, the study suggests a new category, "weak pivot states" in which fragility is not only the outcome of domestic factors but is also due to its geography and position as a "pivot." The evidence suggests that the impact factor of "weak pivot states" is higher than other weak and fragile states, as they are more susceptible to great power struggles. As "weak pivot states" sit at the crossroads of major and regional powers' interests, one of the findings of this dissertation demonstrates that major powers have often supported undemocratic forces, with centralized authoritarian regimes benefiting the interests of a hegemon. The reduction of the threat level requires the provision of stability and the implementation of an effective political order. The findings suggest that fragile states need to reorient their constitutions and laws so as to create opportunity of equality and inclusiveness to its populations. In addition, the dissertation recommends the creation of "spheres of socialization" at intra-state and inter-state level that will allow education for democracy towards state building and establishing accountable political systems instead of interventions in weak and fragile states; and also facilitate an integration process at sub-regional, regional and then global level to tackle the burden of geography respectively. © 2014 Tasawar ul Rahim Baig. All rights reserved. This dissertation is dedicated to two group of people. First, my family and teachers for their continued guidance, patronage and academic support that has enabled me to expand my intellectual horizons and develop rational understanding about the meaning of life, society, and academic responsibilities. Second, is a group of people with whom I developed a distant though not detached relationship through this dissertation work, where I have come to realize their constant challenges seeking a ray of hope to protect their dignity in times of despair and destitute situations living in fragile and conflict inflicted societies. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I submit a token of gratitude to all my dissertation com m ittee members: Dr. Serfaty; Dr. Karp; and Dr. Schulman for their best support to accomplish this project. I would like to submit my humble and special gratitude to the chair of dissertation committee for his unflagging support, intellectual input, and for providing me enabling space to nurture and prepare for future responsibilities. My affiliation with Dr. Serfaty is not simply based on his supervision of my dissertation; rather he has been my academic advisor and mentor for the last four years. I always feel proud and privileged for being nurtured under the tutelage of his eminent scholarship and direct supervision. Without his direction, advice, and critical thoughts this project would have been difficult to accomplish. I am also indebted to Dr. Karp, whose critical feedback during the summer course on dissertation preparation and writing class enabled me to embark on this research agenda. As an international student, it has always challenging to experience the academic and non-academic transitions in new settings. It would have been very difficult to reach this point in my academic career without her support as Program Director. I indeed learned a lot as a student in her classes, and of course her constructive feedback as committee member on this dissertation has been most helpful. I am grateful to Dr. Schulman for his all the time encouragement and academic input during my candidacy orals and dissertation writing. I am deeply thankful to him for his time to read and critical response on my project, which has been very helpful. My humble thanks to a few individuals who helped me in the editorial assistance, including my Fulbright Fellow from Brazil, Mr. Alessandro Shimabukuro, and my friend Mr. Aaron Sander. I also want to pay my profound gratitude to Ms. Steffani Dambruch for her best editorial support in editing the entire draft, particularly with such limited time. In addition, I would like to submit deep gratitude to my Fulbright Fellows from Myanmar, Mr. Naing Tun Lin and Ms. Ja Turn Seng for their extensive discussions to build my deep understanding about Myanmar. Thanks to Mr. Farid Safarmamad and Mr. Muhammad Fahim PhD fellows at ODU for their technical support. I also want to pay my thanks to GPIS faculty for their tireless efforts, which have helped me to strengthen my academic credentials. I am also thankful to my GPIS fellows for their time and knowledge, it was a wonderful experience at the program with a diverse group from all over the world. My special thanks to Margo Stambleck and other GPIS staff for their best support on administrative matters. Special thanks to my parents whose prayers are always a source of invisible strength and inspiration. Thanks to my family, friends and colleagues at Karakoram International University (KIU) for their continuous support during my doctoral studies. As well, this section of acknowledgement will not be complete without expressing a sincere thanks to my wife Aniqa Baig for her diligent support, care, and love in finishing my academic dream. And, I am also thankful to our two little bright stars: Rohaan and Rushdaan for their presence in our life. Last but not least, this degree would not be possible without the Fulbright doctoral scholarship, and support from KIU. I am grateful to the United States Education Foundation in Pakistan, Mr. Brian Diffley, program officer at the Institute of International Education (HE), and HE for taking care of this academic journey on behalf of the Fulbright Program. ix ABBREVIATIONS AFPEL Anti-Fascist People's Freedom League APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BCIM Bangladesh-China-lndia-Myanmar BIMST-EC Bangladesh-lndia-Myanmar-Sri Lanka-Thailand Economic Cooperation BFBA Burma Freedom Bloc Organization BIA Burma Independence Army BISP Benazir Income Support Programme BSPP Burma Socialist Programme Party CCP China's Communist Party CFN Chin National Front CIA Central Intelligence Agency CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Corporation CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation CPB Communist Party of Burma DREP De-radicalization emancipation programs FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FCR Frontier Crimes Regulations FCS Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations FDI Foreign Direct Investment X GB Gilgit-Baltistan GCBA General Council of Burmese Association GAIL Gas Authority of Indian Limited