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Policies for an Ecological Civilization by Cecilia H. Springer A Policies for an Ecological Civilization by Cecilia H. Springer A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Energy and Resources in the Graduate Division of the University of California, Berkeley Committee in charge: Professor David Anthoff, Chair Professor Samuel Evans Professor You-tien Hsing Professor Daniel Kammen Summer 2019 Policies for an Ecological Civilization Copyright 2019 by Cecilia H. Springer Abstract Policies for an Ecological Civilization by Cecilia H. Springer Doctor of Philosophy in Energy and Resources University of California, Berkeley Professor David Anthoff, Chair China’s ecological civilization concept claims a new, Chinese model of promoting economic growth while reducing environmental pollution at the same time. This dissertation uses interdisciplinary methods to analyze two of China’s flagship ecological civilization policies, the national carbon market and the Belt and Road Initiative. While the national carbon market exemplifies China’s changing approach to domestic environmental policy, the Belt and Road Initiative is carrying the Chinese model of ecological civilization overseas. The first part of this dissertation focuses on China’s national carbon market. I use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the interactions between a national carbon market and China’s ongoing structural economic transition, thereby yielding macro-scale evidence and policy suggestions for how China can fulfill ecological civilization goals of increasing GDP while reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Next, I investigate the carbon market from a qualitative perspective, assessing how emissions accounting is used as a foundation for policy- making. I also explore the capacity building community that sustains the carbon market, asking broader questions about how Chinese neoliberalism informs the formation of the national carbon market. The second part of this dissertation focuses on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), situating it in the context of leakage, or relocation of production in response to environmental regulation. Through a novel empirical study, I test the assumption that BRI projects may be better or worse for the environment than other sources of finance. I then explore potential mechanisms of Chinese overseas finance exceptionalism, informing ongoing policy and advocacy debates about how to engage with the growing scale of China’s overseas investment. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................. v Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 Part One: The National Carbon Market .................................................................. 3 Chapter 2: Anatomy of a Carbon Market ........................................................................... 4 What is a Carbon Market? .............................................................................................. 4 Partial Reform ................................................................................................................. 5 Key Institutions ............................................................................................................... 7 Analyzing Carbon Markets ............................................................................................. 9 Chapter 3: Modeling Carbon Markets and Structural Economic Change ........................ 11 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 11 Literature Review .......................................................................................................... 13 Methods......................................................................................................................... 17 Results ........................................................................................................................... 21 Discussion ..................................................................................................................... 26 Chapter 4: Becoming a Carbon Market: Data, Expertise, and Capacity Building ........... 30 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 30 The Emissions Datascape: Building Emissions Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification Systems ......................................................................................................................... 34 From Data to Decisions: Models, Modelers, and Expertise ......................................... 46 Capacity Building: The Market of the Market .............................................................. 54 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 62 Part Two: The Belt and Road Initiative ................................................................. 65 Chapter 5: Belts, Roads, and Leakage .............................................................................. 66 The Scale of Impact ...................................................................................................... 66 Finance as Leakage ....................................................................................................... 67 i Chapter 6: Empirical Analysis of Environmental Performance of China’s Overseas Coal Plants ................................................................................................................................. 70 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 70 Data ............................................................................................................................... 71 Methods......................................................................................................................... 76 Results ........................................................................................................................... 77 Conclusion and Discussion ........................................................................................... 80 Chapter 7: Mechanisms of Impact .................................................................................... 83 Company Roles ............................................................................................................. 83 Hypothesized Mechanisms ........................................................................................... 84 Chapter 8: Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 88 References ......................................................................................................................... 90 Appendix ......................................................................................................................... 102 Abbreviations .............................................................................................................. 102 Air Pollution Control Technologies ............................................................................ 103 Emissions Calculation Validation ............................................................................... 105 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Share of Consumption in GDP of OECD Countries and China, 2012 .............. 12 Figure 2: Share of Value-Added from Services in GDP ................................................... 13 Figure 3: CO2 Intensity (tons CO2/10,000 yuan) of Production in China, 2012 .............. 14 Figure 4: PANDA Production Block CES Nesting .......................................................... 19 Figure 5: China’s Real GDP at Market Prices by Scenario, 2012-2050 ........................... 22 Figure 6: Components of GDP by PANDA Scenario in China, 2050 .............................. 23 Figure 7: Annual CO2 Emissions in China by Scenario (Gt CO2), 2012-2050 ................. 25 Figure 8: ETS Carbon Price by Scenario (RMB/ton CO2), 2012-2050 ........................... 26 Figure 9: Educational diorama and study tour, Taiyanggong natural gas power plant .... 37 Figure 10: Coal plant in Inner Mongolia .......................................................................... 38 Figure 11: Emissions Reporting Compliance Cycle Schematic ....................................... 39 Figure 12: Schematic of Variation in Emissions Data ...................................................... 41 Figure 13: Map of Coal Plants in Asia (excluding China) ................................................ 72 Figure 14: Countries of Origin for Coal Plant Company Types ....................................... 73 Figure 15: Country of Origin Portfolios by Steam Type .................................................. 81 Figure 16: Comparison of Calculated and Reported Emissions Rates ........................... 105 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Review of CGE Implementation of Structural Transition Policies .................... 15 Table 2: PANDA Sectors .................................................................................................. 17 Table 3: Effect of Policy Scenarios on GDP Components (% Change from Baseline) in 2050..........................................................................................................................
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