Ten New CSI Fellows | The Rendle-Sham Case | Scribbler | Charlie Challenge | Mesmer Thieves

the Magazine for Science and Reason Vol. 39 No. 6 | November/December 2015

The Man Who Solved the BERMUDA TRIANGLE ‘MYSTERY’ LARRY KUSCHE Looks Back on His Classic Investigation

BIOCENTRISM: A Curious ‘Me’ Universe

The Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming

The Search for Negative Evidence

We Are All GMOs

Pseudoscience and the EmDrive

Young-Earth Creationism

Published by the in association with the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Ronald A. Lindsay, President and CEO , Research Fellow     Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or , Research Fellow , Senior Research Fellow , Research Fellow www.csicop.org Fellows James E. Al cock*, psy chol o gist, York Univ., Tor on to David H. Gorski, cancer surgeon and re searcher at Barbara Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of Mar cia An gell, MD, former ed i tor-in-chief, Ann Kar manos Cancer Institute and chief of breast surgery Astronomy and director of the Hopkins New Eng land Jour nal of Med i cine section, Wayne State University School of Medicine. Observatory, Williams College Kimball Atwood IV, MD, physician; author; Newton, MA Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first editor, John Pau los, math e ma ti cian, Tem ple Univ. The Skeptic magazine (UK) Steph en Bar rett, MD, psy chi a trist; au thor; con sum er ad vo cate, Clifford A. Pickover, scientist, au thor, editor, IBM T.J. Watson Sus an Haack, Coop er Sen ior Schol ar in Arts and Al len town, PA Re search Center. Willem Betz, MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Sci en ces, professor of phi los o phy and professor of Law, Univ. of Mi ami , professor of philosophy, Ir ving Bie der man, psy chol o gist, Univ. of South ern CA *, MD, physician; investigator, Puyallup, WA City Univ. of New York–Lehman College Sus an Black more, vis it ing lec tur er, Univ. of the West of David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Stev en Pink er, cog ni tive sci en tist, Harvard Univ. Eng land, Bris tol Columbia Univ. Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York Times Mas si mo Pol id oro, sci ence writer; au thor; ex ec u tive Terence M. Hines, prof. of psychology, Pace Univ., di rect or of CI CAP, It a ly science correspondent Pleasantville, NY. Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National Laboratories, James L. Powell, geochemist, author, professor; executive direc- Doug las R. Hof stad ter, pro fes sor of hu man tor, National Physical Science Consortium; retired college and Albuquerque, NM un der stand ing and cog ni tive sci ence, In di ana Univ. museum president, Buellton, CA Hen ri Broch, phys i cist, Univ. of Nice, France Ger ald Hol ton, Mal linc krodt Pro fes sor of Phys ics and pro fes sor Jan Har old Brun vand, folk lor ist; pro fes sor emer i tus of his to ry of sci ence, Har vard Univ. Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, Univ. of CA, of Eng lish, Univ. of Utah Ray Hy man*, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Or e gon Santa Cruz Mar io Bunge, phi los o pher, McGill Univ., Montreal Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus; Donald R. Prothero, paleontologist/geologist, Natural History Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philosophy, science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of Public Museum of County, Los Angeles, CA Sacramento City College; writer Policy, Washington, DC Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, Committee Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist; vice president for science Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for for Skeptical Inquiry education, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Madison, WI Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, New York James “The Amazing” Randi, magician; CSICOP founding Thomas R. Casten, energy expert; founder and chairman, Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School Recycled Energy Development, Westmont, IL of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept.; member; founder, Educational Foundation John R. Cole, an thro pol o gist; ed i tor, Na tion al director, Origins Initiative, Arizona State Univ. Mil ton Ro sen berg, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Chic a go Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion Harry Kroto, professor of chemistry and Am ar deo Sar ma*, chairman, GWUP, Ger ma ny K.C. Cole, science writer; author; professor, Univ. of Southern biochemistry, Florida State Univ.; Nobel laureate Richard Saunders, president, ; educator; California’s Annenberg School of Journalism Ed win C. Krupp, as tron o mer; di rect or, investigator; podcaster; Sydney, Australia John Cook, climate communication research fellow for Grif fith Ob ser va to ry, Los Angeles, CA Joe Schwarcz, director, McGill Office for Science and Society the Global Change Institute at the Univ. of Queensland, Law rence Kusche, sci ence writer Eu ge nie C. Scott*, phys i cal an thro pol o gist; chair, advisory Australia. Le on Le der man, emer i tus di rect or, Fer mi lab; Fred er ick Crews, lit er ary and cul tur al crit ic; pro fes sor emer i tus No bel lau re ate in phys ics council , Na tion al Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion of Eng lish, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Stephan Lewandowsky, psychologist, School of Experimental Rob ert Sheaf fer, sci ence writer Rich ard Dawk ins, zo ol o gist, Ox ford Univ. Psychology and Cabot Institute, Univ. of Bristol, UK Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Ge of frey Dean, tech ni cal ed i tor, Perth, Aus tral ia Scott O. Lil i en feld*, psy chol o gist, Emory Univ., , GA Mountain View, CA Cor nel is de Ja ger, pro fes sor of as tro phys ics, Univ. of Utrecht, Lin Zix in, former ed i tor, Sci ence and Tech nol o gy Dai ly (Chi na) Simon Singh, science writer; broadcaster; UK the Neth er lands Je re Lipps, Mu se um of Pa le on tol o gy, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Dick Smith, entrepreneur, publisher, aviator, adventurer, Dan i el C. Den nett, Aus tin B. Fletch er Pro fes sor of Phi los o phy Eliz a beth Loft us*, pro fes sor of psy chol o gy, Univ. of CA, Ir vine Terrey Hills, N.S.W., Australia and di rect or of Cen ter for Cog ni tive Stud ies, Tufts Uni v. , author, editor of Junior Skeptic at Skeptic maga- Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; professor of Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Cosmos Studios, zine (US), artist, Vancouver, B.C., Canada human development and applied psychology, Uni v. of Ithaca, NY Da vid Marks, psy chol o gist, City Univ., Lon don Toronto Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist Association and Rationalist International Mar io Men dez-Acos ta, jour nal ist and sci ence writer, Mex i co City *, linguist; skeptical investigator; writer; podcaster Edzard Ernst, professor, Complementary Medicine, Peninsula Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Brown Univ. Medical School, Universities of Exeter and Plymouth, Marv in Min sky, pro fes sor of me dia arts and sci en ces, M.I.T. Jill Cor nell Tar ter, as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, Moun tain View, CA Exeter, UK Da vid Mor ri son, space sci en tist, NA SA Ames Re search Cen ter Car ol Tav ris, psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA Ken neth Fed er, pro fes sor of an thro pol o gy, Rich ard A. Mul ler, pro fes sor of phys ics, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Da vid E. Thom as*, phys i cist and math e ma ti cian, Socorro, NM Cen tral Con nec ti cut State Univ. Joe Nick ell, sen ior re search fel low, CSI Neil de Gras se Ty son, as tro phys i cist and di rect or, Krista Federspiel, science journalist, expert on complementary , mathematician, Waalre, Hay den Plan e tar i um, New York City and , Vienna, Austria. The Netherlands Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, SE Louisiana Univ. Lee Nis bet, phi los o pher, Med aille Col lege Indre Viskontas, cognitive neuroscientist, tv and podcast host, and opera singer, San Francisco, CA An drew Fra knoi, as tron o mer, Foot hill Col lege, Los Al tos Hills, CA *, MD, assistant professor Kend rick Fra zi er*, sci ence writer; ed i tor, S    I   of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine Stuart Vyse, psychologist, former Joanne Toor Cummings ’50 professor of psychology, Connecticut College; author Christopher C. French, professor, Department Bill Nye, sci ence ed u ca tor and tel e vi sion host, Nye Labs of Psychology, and head of the James E. Oberg, sci ence writer of Believing in : The Psychology of , Research Unit, Goldsmiths College, Univ. of London Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), Stonington, CT , host of the Rationally Speaking podcast; Mar burg, Ger ma ny Ma ri lyn vos Sa vant, Pa rade mag a zine con trib ut ing ed i tor cofounder, Center for Applied Rationality, Berkeley, CA Paul Offit, professor of pediatrics, director of the Vaccine Educa- Stev en Wein berg, pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, Univ. of Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia (); tion Center, the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia Tex as at Aus tin; No bel lau re ate research fellow of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group Naomi Oreskes, geologist and professor, departments of the E.O. Wil son, Univ. pro fes sor emer i tus, organismic and evolu- Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Victoria History of Science and Earth and Planetary Sciences, Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA tionary biology, Har vard Univ. Mur ray Gell-Mann, pro fes sor of phys ics, San ta Fe In sti tute; Lor en Pan kratz, psy chol o gist, Or e gon Health Rich ard Wis e man, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Hert ford shire, No bel lau re ate Sci en ces Univ. Benjamin Wolozin, professor, Department of Pharmacology, Thom as Gi lov ich, psy chol o gist, Cor nell Univ. Robert L. Park, professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Boston Univ. School of Medicine * Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion on ly.) The S    I   (ISSN 0194-6730) is pub lished Director, CSI, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: au thors. Their pub li ca tion does not nec es sa ri ly con sti tute an bi month ly by the Center for Inquiry in association with 716-636-1425. Fax: 716-636-1733. Email: bkarr@center- en dorse ment by CSI or its mem bers un less so stat ed. the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, P.O. Box 703, Am- forinquiry.net. Cop y right ©2015 by the Center for Inquiry and the Com mit- herst, NY 14226. Print ed in U.S.A. Pe ri od i cals post- Man u scripts, let ters, books for re view, and ed i to ri al tee for Skeptical Inquiry. All rights re served. age paid at Buf fa lo, NY, and at ad di tion al mail ing of- in quir ies should be sent to Kend rick Fra zi er, Ed i tor, S - Sub scrip tions and chan ges of ad dress should be ad- fi ces. Sub scrip tion pri ces: one year (six is sues), $35;   I  , EMAIL: [email protected]. Mail: dressed to: S    I  , P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY two years, $60; three years, $84; sin gle is sue, $5.99. 944 Deer Drive NE, Al bu querque, NM 87122. Be fore sub- 14226-0703. 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Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Skep ti cal In quir er November/December 2015 | Vol. 39, No. 6

28 COLUMNS FROM THE EDITOR The Bermuda Triangle The Man Who Solved the Mystery Delusion: Bermuda Triangle ‘Mystery’ ...... 4 Looking Back after NEWS AND COMMENT Forty Years CFI Calls on FDA to Label Homeopathic LARRY KUSCHE Drugs as Untested and Unproven / Ten Distinguished Scientists and Scholars Named Fellows of Committee for Skeptical 38 Inquiry / Six Presentations at TAM 13 Cel- Through Me, the Universe: ebrate / James Randi Also Feted at ‘Amazing’ Meeting / Mysterious A Stroll through the Curious Clumps of Worms Line Texas Highways / Solipsism of Biocentrism Study Casts Doubt on Omega-3, Antiox- DALE DEBAKCSY idant Brain Benefits / Stephen Hawking Lends Fame to New SETI Search / Farmer in Chile Finds ‘Chupacabra’; Science Sug- 42 gests Otherwise ...... 5 The Consensus on Anthropogenic INVES TI GA TIVE FILES Poltergeist Scribbler: The Bizarre Global Warming Case of Matthew Manning JAMES LAWRENCE POWELL JOE NICK ELL ...... 18

NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD 46 The Charlie We Are All GMOs Charlie Challenge MASSIMO POLIDORO ...... 21 MATAN SHELOMI VIBRATIONS The Rendle-Sham Case: 49 Phony and Phonier The Devil and the Details ...... 23 JÉRÉMIE HARRIS SKEPTICAL INQUIREE AND EDOUARD HARRIS Beware Mesmer Thieves! BENJAMIN RADFORD ...... 25 53 NEW AND NOTABLE ...... 58 The Search for LET TERS TO THE ED I TOR ...... 63 Negative Evidence THE LAST LAUGH ...... 66 JOE NICKELL AND JAMES MCGAHA REVIEWS A Protopian View of Moral Progress DANIEL GRASSAM ...... 56 SPECIAL REPORTS 14 The Moral Arc: How Science and Reason Lead Humanity Toward Truth, Justice, and Freedom From N-Rays to EmDrives: by When Does Science Unlocking the Treasures Become ? DAVID KORDAHL ...... 57

DAVID KOEPSELL Great Calculations: A Surprising Look Behind 50 Scientific Inquiries 16 by Colin Pask Is the EmDrive On Her Majesty’s Secret Saucers Pseudoscience? ROBERT SHEAFFER...... 60 LEONARD TRAMIEL How UFOs Conquered the World by David Clarke Memoir of an Accused Satanist MIKE MORAN...... 62

Life After Death by Damien Echols Committee for Skeptical Inquiry ™ “... promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use Skep ti cal In quir er of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.” THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON EDI TOR Kend rick Fra zi er DEPUTY EDI TOR Ben ja min Rad ford MANA GING EDI TOR Julia Lavarnway ASSISTANT EDITOR Nicole Scott ART DIRECT OR Chri sto pher Fix The Man Who Solved the PRODUC TION Paul E. Loynes Bermuda Triangle ‘Mystery’ WEBMASTER Matthew Licata PUBLISH ER’S REPRE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr

n a recent essay (SI, March/April 2015), I went back forty years to the events that EDI TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, Harriet Hall, Ray Hy man, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Elizabeth Loftus, Joe were stirring the beginning of the modern . One wild claim Nickell, Steven Novella, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. Scott, Karen Stollznow, David E. Thomas, of the time was the so-called mystery of the Bermuda Triangle, and one landmark I Leonard Tramiel event of skeptical investigation was the 1975 publication of Larry Kusche’s The CONSULT ING EDI TORS Sus an J. Black more, Bermuda Triangle Mystery—Solved. I wrote that it is “still today regarded (correctly Ken neth L. Fed er, Barry Karr, E.C. Krupp, in my view) as one of the classic debunking books of all time.” I hasten to add that Jay M. Pasachoff, Rich ard Wis e man CONTRIB UT ING EDI TORS D.J. Grothe, Harriet Hall, Kusche prefers not to be called a ; he just wants to find out what’s true. Kenneth W. Krause, David Morrison, James E. Oberg, Kusche’s remarkable book was newly out there, along with others by Martin Massimo Pigliucci, Rob ert Sheaf fer, David E. Thomas Gardner, James Randi, and UFO critic Philip J. Klass, serving as examples of how to do critical investigations of popular mysteries. When CSICOP was founded in Published in association with 1976, Kusche, Gardner, Randi, Klass, and many others became founding CSICOP fellows. CHAIR Edward Tabash CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Ronald A. Lindsay For this issue, we invited Kusche (rhymes with “bush”) to give his forty-year per- CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Barry Karr spective, recounting his investigation, the events that stimulated it, and his thoughts CORPO RATE COUNSEL Brenton N. VerPloeg, about it all. At the time he didn’t know what the facts were; he wanted to find Nicholas J. Little out. But once he’d completed the investigation, he called the Bermuda Triangle “a BUSINESS MANA GER Pa tri cia Beau champ manufactured mystery” and now refers to it as a “delusion.” FISCAL OFFI CER Paul Pau lin Jacalyn Mohr “The ‘mystery’ of the Bermuda Triangle is one of the most widespread frauds SUBSCRIPTION DATA MANAGER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Paul Fidalgo that has ever been perpetrated,” he writes in this issue. “It was based on poor re- DIRECT OR OF LIBRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga search and distorted, untrue, inaccurate information that was uncritically copied DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR Martina Fern and embellished.” DIRECTOR, COUNCIL FOR We know that now, but back then, before Kusche’s investigation, many people Tom Flynn DIRECTOR, CAMPUS AND COMMUNITY PROGRAMS thought airplanes and ships were indeed mysteriously disappearing at high rates in Debbie Goddard a strangely triangular section of the ocean for reasons unknown. DIRECTOR, AFRICAN AMERICANS FOR HUMANISM Kusche brought his skills as an experienced pilot and flight instructor and his Debbie Goddard BOARD OF DIRECTORS R. Elisabeth Cornwell, university librarian’s curiosity and desire to find out and share the truth to what , Barry A. Kosmin, Hector Sierra, became a remarkable investigation. Edward Tabash (chair), Leonard Tramiel. (Honorary): Rebecca Goldstein, Susan Jacoby, Like many legends this one had its origin in a real event: the disappearance of . five Navy Avenger torpedo bombers on a flight from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, to the Bahamas on December 5, 1945. Their loss was a huge tragedy. It soon led to Ten New CSI Fellows | The Rendle-Sham Case | Poltergeist Scribbler | Charlie Challenge | Mesmer Thieves wild speculation and unsupported theories. Kusche set out to find out what really

happened. His calm, rational approach and his focus on original, not secondary, the Magazine for Science and Reason Vol. 39 No. 6 | November/December 2015 sources eventually led to a reasonable explanation. He also found that subsequent The Man Who Solved the stories of other “mysterious” losses in the “Triangle” were highly exaggerated, and BERMUDA TRIANGLE ‘MYSTERY’ LARRY KUSCHE Looks Back on most losses of ships attributed to the Triangle had determining causes (e.g., severe His Classic Investigation storms) or even happened nowhere near it. BIOCENTRISM: A Curious ‘Me’ Universe

Scientists and naval officials and historians welcomed his book (we show some The Consensus on Human-Caused of their comments on page 37), and after a time the Bermuda Triangle mystery Global Warming The Search for itself sank into oblivion. Negative Evidence

Today, Kusche still lives in the Phoenix area. He is “retired,” he says, but ex- We Are All GMOs tremely busy and healthy for turning seventy-five soon. “I have always worked out, Pseudoscience and the EmDrive lengthy bike rides, weights, etc.” He has been married fifty-one years. He still sees Young-Earth Creationism a need for informed against multitudinous untruths. “In this age of in- Published by the Center for Inquiry in association with the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry formation explosion and social media, it is worrisome that so many people believe On the cover (and p. 28): A highly detailed image of so many things without requiring any supporting evidence. . . .” Earth showing the city night lights of North America giving way to day in the Caribbean Islands, Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica. Elements of this image were furnished K F by NASA. [ NEWS AND COMMENT

CFI Calls on FDA to Label Homeopathic Drugs as Untested and Unproven

Consumers spend $3 billion a year on homeopathic drugs, yet most remain unaware that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not evalu- ated them for safety and effectiveness. In comments filed with the FDA the week of August 17, the Center for Inquiry (CFI) urged the FDA to sub- ject homeopathic drugs to the same testing requirements as conventional drugs. Failing that, CFI urged the FDA to at least require homeopathic prod- ucts to be clearly labeled as untested and unproven. is a centuries-old pseudoscience, developed before the discovery of disease-causing pathogens, based on the false beliefs that “like cures like” and that the more an ingredient is diluted the more potent it is, due to water’s “memory” of the diluted ingre- for not distinguishing between effec- tive remedies and pseudoscience Homeopathy is a centuries-old dient. As CFI stated in its comments, from the 1700s if both products “By its own definition, homeopathy share the same store shelves, and pseudoscience, developed cannot work.” Yet for historical reasons there is no labeling on homeopathic relating to the passage of the original drugs to indicate they are given a before the discovery of Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act in 1938 pass by the FDA. Clear labeling on disease-causing pathogens. (which had a homeopathic practitioner homeopathic products, that catches consumers’ attention and informs as a key sponsor), homeopathic prod- them that the FDA does not evalu- can result in people becoming sicker or ucts can be marketed even though they ate these products for safety or effec- even dying for lack of real, scientifically are not subject to the rigorous testing tiveness, is an easy way to ensure that for safety and effectiveness that conven- people looking to treat their illnesses proven treatments. tional drugs must undergo. are not fooled into thinking that In the meantime, the Federal Trade homeopathic drugs are real medi- In late March, the FDA announced Commission (FTC) responded to the cine. Study after study demonstrates it was reconsidering its position on ho- FDA’s requests for public input with its that at most they have a placebo own criticism of the FDA’s slack reg- meopathic drugs. The Center for In- effect. quiry, which advocates for science and ulatory policies on homeopathy. The reason and is home to the Committee “We believe that true freedom of FTC complained, among other things, for Skeptical Inquiry, had previously choice is impossible unless one is fully that the FDA’s policy guide “does not petitioned the FDA to address the in- informed about the choices,” writes require that over-the-counter (OTC) adequate regulation of homeopathic CFI in its comments. “The public homeopathic drugs be approved by products. It was then invited by the needs the guidance of an expert agency FDA as safe and effective if they satisfy FDA to provide testimony at public when it comes to buying drugs as they certain conditions, including that the hearings on the subject in April (SI, are not in a position to evaluate their product’s label contains an indication July/August 2015). effectiveness themselves, without in- for use. Yet the policy guide does not Said Ronald A. Lindsay, president curring unacceptable risks.” require sellers to have competent and and CEO of CFI: One such risk highlighted by CFI reliable scientific evidence to support is the risk of those suffering from real the indication for use.” When people get sick or hurt, they are confronted with countless prod- medical conditions who might rely on The full comments submitted to the ucts that claim to be able to make homeopathic products to the exclusion FDA can be read at bit.ly/CFI_Home- them better. They cannot be blamed of proven scientific remedies, which opathy_FDA.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 5 Ten Distinguished Scientists and Scholars Named Fellows of Committee for Skeptical Inquiry

Ten distinguished scientists, scholars, educators, and investigators from five countries have been elected fellows of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (CSI), copublisher of the S  I. CSI (formerly CSICOP) is one of the world’s leading organizations for the promotion of scientific thinking and the critical examination of extraordinary claims from a scientific point of view. Fellows of CSI are selected for their “distinguished contributions to science and skepticism.” They are nominated and elected by CSI’s twelve-member Executive Council. In addition, CSI named four new Scientific and Technical Consultants. The new fellows join a list of notable CSI fellows that includes astronomers Neil deGrasse Tyson and Jill Tarter; biologists and E.O. Wilson; Nobel laureate physicists or chemists Leon Lederman, Murray Gell-Mann, Steven Weinberg, and Sir Harry Kroto; philosophers Daniel C. Dennett, Susan Haack, and Mario Bunge; anthropologist Eugenie C. Scott; psychologists , , , and Richard Wiseman; magician/author James Randi; science educator and television host Bill Nye; Cosmos creator/writer Ann Druyan; plus many prominent physicians and medical scientists who critique questionable medical claims. The full list of fellows is on the inside cover of each issue of SI and on the organization’s website at csicop.org/about/csi_fellows_ and_staff/. Past fellows now in CSI’s Pantheon of Skeptics (http://www.csicop.org/about/the_pantheon_of_skeptics/) include , Carl Sagan, Martin Gardner, Nobel laureates Francis Crick and Glenn T. Seaborg, , B.F. Skinner, and philosopher and CSICOP founder .

The Committee’s newly elected fellows are:

JOHN COOK, Climate Communication DONALD R. PROTHERO, paleontologist/ John Cook is the Climate Communication Research Fellow for the Global geologist, Natural History Museum of Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the Change Institute at the University of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, CA University of Queensland, Australia. He created Queensland, Australia. and maintains the Skeptical Science website, STUART VYSE, psychologist, former one of the top online sources of information KRISTA FEDERSPIEL, science journalist, Joanne Toor Cummings ’50 Professor about climate science and climate denialism, expert on complementary and alter- of Psychology, Connecticut College; and is coauthor of Climate Change Denial native medicine, Vienna, Austria. author of Believing in Magic: (2011) and the 2013 college textbook Climate The Psychology of Superstition, JULIA GALEF, host of the Rationally Change Science: A Modern Synthesis. He also Stonington, CT Speaking podcast; cofounder, Center was lead author of the paper “Quantifying the for Applied Rationality, Berkeley, CA Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Scientific Literature,” awarded the best STEPHAN LEWANDOWSKY, psychologist, The Committee’s newly elected paper published in Environmental Research School of Experimental Psychology Letters in 2013. He has a BS in physics and and Cabot Institute, University of Scientific and Technical Consultants is currently completing a PhD in cognitive psy- Bristol, United Kingdom are: chology, researching how people think about DANIEL LOXTON, author, editor of Junior , founder and leader of climate change. He and colleague Stephan Skeptic at Skeptic magazine (US), the Guerilla Skepticism on Wikipedia Lewandowsky (also a newly elected CSI fellow) artist, Vancouver, B.C., Canada (GSoW) project, skeptic activist, pho- wrote “The Debunking Handbook,” a guide tographer about the problems of, and best strategies for, PAUL OFFIT, Professor of Pediatrics; debunking anti-science myths. Director of the Vaccine Education GABOR HRASKO, chairman of the Center, the Children’s Hospital of European Council of Skeptical Krista Federspiel of Vienna, Austria, is a medi- Philadelphia Organizations (ECSO), president of cal journalist and author with a PhD in folklore. Hungarian Skeptics She worked as a freelance journalist and edi- NAOMI ORESKES, geologist and pro- tor for several Austrian and German magazines fessor, Departments of the History JOHN R. MASHEY, computer scientist/ and newspapers. She also became known of Science and Earth and Planetary executive (Bell Labs, then Silicon as a radio and television presenter. She is a Sciences, Harvard University, Valley), analyst of climate-change member of the Science Council of the Society Cambridge, MA denial, contributor to DeSmogBlog and for the Scientific Investigation of Para Sciences Skeptical Science, Portola Valley, CA JAMES L. POWELL, geochemist, author, (GWUP, the German skeptics group) and regu- professor; executive director, National larly publishes articles in their magazine, Skep- Physical Science Consortium; retired JULIA OFFE, neurobiologist, science tiker. She is cofounder and an active member college and museum president, journalist, creator of German Science of the Society for Critical Thinking, the Vienna Buellton, CA Slam Regional Group of GWUP. Her focus is on so- cial and women’s issues, consumer protection,

6 Volume 39 Issue 6 | [ NEWS AND COMMENT

medicine, and psychotherapy. Federspiel has as “Why Is There a Skeptical Movement?” shall College, Reed College, the Franklin Insti- become well known as a critic of alternative (2014) exploring the roots, founding princi- tute, and the Los Angeles County Museum of medical procedures. She is author, coauthor, ples, and purposes of scientific skepticism. Natural History. He also served twelve years or editor of a number of books in these fields. Paul Offit, MD, is Professor of Pediatrics and on the National Science Board. In 1998 he Julia Galef is president and cofounder of the Director of the Vaccine Education Center at wrote Night Comes to the Cretaceous about Center for Applied Rationality, a nonprofit the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. He is dinosaur extinction and the modern transfor- think tank that trains people to be more ra- also a professor of pediatrics and vaccinol- mation of geology. His 2012 book The Inqui- tional. She is a writer, podcaster, and public ogy at the University of Pennsylvania School sition of Climate Change is a comprehensive speaker on rationality, science, and the phi- of Medicine. Offit is co-inventor of the rota- examination of the climate denial movement. losophy of science, often explaining common virus vaccine, credited with saving hundreds His 2015 book Four Revolutions in the Earth confusions and popular misconceptions of lives every day. He is a leading proponent Sciences: From Heresy to Truth describes about rationality. She serves on the board of for childhood immunizations and a promi- how four key scientific discoveries (deep directors of the New York City Skeptics and nent advocate for science-based approaches time, continental drift, meteorite impacts, hosts their official podcast, Rationally Speak- to medicine. His 2008 book Autism’s False and global warming) were all initially rejected ing, which she has done since its inception catalyzed a backlash against the but then accepted by science, confirming sci- in 2010, sharing the show with cohost and anti-vaccination movement in the United ence’s self-correcting nature. Asteroid 1987 philosopher Massimo Pigliucci until 2015. States. His three latest books have extended SH7 is named for Powell. Galef has a degree in statistics and did grad- the range of his critiques even further: Deadly Donald R. Prothero is a paleontologist and uate work in economics before shifting to her Choices: How the Anti-Vaccine Movement geologist associated with the Natural History present career advocating for science and Threatens Us All (2011), Do You Believe in Museum of Los Angeles County and a prolific rationality. Magic? The Sense and Nonsense of Alter- writer and author. He received his PhD in the native Medicine (2013), and, most recently, Stephan Lewandowsky is a psychologist geological sciences from Columbia University. Bad Faith: When Religious Belief Undermines whose recent research has focused on the His scientific specialty has been mammalian Modern Medicine (2015). public’s understanding and misunderstand- paleontology. He became involved with the ing of science and why people often embrace Naomi Oreskes, a geologist turned historian skeptical movement in the early 1980s de- beliefs at odds with the scientific evidence. of science, is a professor in the Departments fending evolution and later serving on the ed- He is a cognitive psychologist in the School of of the History of Science and Earth and Plan- itorial board of . His trade Experimental Psychology at the University of etary Sciences at Harvard University. She books include Evolution (2007), Catastro- Bristol, United Kingdom, where he is also part moved to Harvard in 2013 after fifteen years phes! (2011), Reality Check: How Climate of the university’s Cabot Institute. Until 2013, as Professor of History of Science and Sci- Deniers Threaten Our Future (2013), Abom- he was at the University of Western Australia. ence Studies at the University of California, inable Science! (with Daniel Loxton, also a He has published a number of notable stud- San Diego. Her research has focused on un- newly elected CSI fellow), and The Story of ies examining people’s beliefs in misinforma- derstanding scientific consensus and dissent. Life in 25 Fossils (2015). He’s also written tion, including one of the best-known stud- Her 1999 book The Rejection of Continental six geology textbooks, including Evolution of ies of public opinion about climate change, Drift, her coedited volume Plate Tectonics: An the Earth, in its sixth edition. Recent awards advancing the literature on what has come Insider’s History of the Modern Theory of the include the Shea Award (2013) for writing in to be known as “motivated reasoning.” He Earth, and other scholarly works established geoscience and the Gregory Award (2015) for has also studied the relationship between her as a first-rate historian of science. In service to vertebrate paleontology. believing conspiracy theories and rejection 2004, her short paper in Science “The Scien- Stuart Vyse is a psychologist and the former of various forms of science. He is the first tific Consensus on Climate Change” became Joanne Toor Cummings ’50 Professor of Psy- digital content editor for the Psychonomic widely cited and brought her to her detailed chology at Connecticut College, where he was Society, running its blog at http://www. study of climate denialism chronicled in her praised as an engaging teacher. His research psychonomic.org/featured-content. 2010 book Merchants of Doubt (with Erik M. specialty is irrational behavior. His book Be- Conway), which documented how a small Daniel Loxton is editor of the Junior Skeptic lieving in Magic: The Psychology of Supersti- group of contrarian scientists obscured the section in Skeptic magazine (U.S.), and a tion was winner of the Book truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global Canadian writer and artist. He is lead author Award of the American Psychological Associa- warming. It has been widely praised (and (with , also named a fellow) tion. It is an account of the science behind our also attacked). That book in turn inspired this of the 2013 book Abominable Science!, a most irrational beliefs. Oxford University Press year’s feature-length documentary movie of scientific look at cryptozoology heralded as published an updated edition in 2014, with the same title. Her most recent book (also one of the best books about the origins of Vyse adding new research on jinxes, paranor- with Erik Conway) is The Collapse of Western myths about Yeti, Nessie, and other famous mal belief, and luck, and making a renewed Civilization: A View from the Future (Columbia cryptids. His book Evolution: How We and All call for scientific thinking and the naturalistic University Press, 2014). Living Things Came to Be won the $10,000 explanation of the world. Late last year, Vyse Lane Anderson Award, Canada’s top national James L. Powell is a geochemist, author, and began writing a regular column, “Behavior & award specific to children’s science writing. retired university and museum executive. He Belief,” for the S  I website, His book Pterosaur Trouble won the $5,000 is executive director of the National Physical csicop.org. Some notable recent entries in- Bolen Books Children’s Book Prize at the Vic- Science Consortium. He received his PhD in clude “Neuro-Pseudoscience,” “Has Science toria Book Awards. Loxton has also become geochemistry from MIT, taught at Oberlin Col- a Problem?,” “Facilitated Communication: a kind of unofficial historian of the modern lege, and served as its acting president. He The Fad That Will Not Die,” and “Anti-Science skeptical movement, with online papers such has also been president of Franklin and Mar- Trends at Mid-Decade.”

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 7 Six Presentations at TAM 13 Celebrate Martin Gardner

K F All Photos by Brian Engler

Martin Gardner was such a hero to the skeptical community that five years after his 2010 death at the age of nine- ty-five (the S I did a special “Tribute and Celebrations” issue, September/October 2010), cele- brations of his life continue. So it was fitting that the 2015 TAM conference (, TAM 13) in Las Vegas July 16–19 devoted six presentations to Gardner and his influ- ence and legacy. Dana Richards, Martin Gardner’s James E. Gardner gave a touching tribute to his official biographer and a professor of father, Martin Gardner, at TAM 13. computer science at George Mason University, said Gardner “studied phi- losophy to find out what he believed.” son, New York. He had breakfast He never lost that thoughtful, philo- and read the New York Times, then sophical, inquiring attitude. Richards went upstairs to his third-floor office said that in January 1974 Gardner to work until lunch. After lunch he wrote to the publisher Crowell, with- worked again until 4 . That was drawing his books because of some er- the time he and his wife, Charlotte, rant nonsense they had just published. James Randi, Martin Gardner, and Jamy Ian reserved for cocktails, and they tried Swiss (top); James Gardner’s slide listing his “The occult revolution is reaching never to miss that hour together even father’s champions. heights of insanity,” Gardner wrote in if traveling. Then he returned upstairs that letter. This, Richards said, was the Perhaps TAM’s centerpiece speaker to work until dinner, then a bit more “the start of a big pushback” by Gard- on Gardner was James E. Gardner, work after dinner until bedtime at an ner and colleagues, such as James Randi Martin’s eldest son and a professor in early 8:30 . and Ray Hyman, against the pseudo- the College of Education at the Uni- James playfully referred to his fa- scientific nonsense soaking culture at versity of Oklahoma. James came to ther’s “technology”—typewriter, scis- that time. It eventually led in 1976 to the 2010 TAM conference’s special sors and paste, and a dial phone. He their joining philosopher Paul Kurtz in impromptu tribute to his then recently used an abacus to balance his check- founding the Committee for the Sci- deceased father, but in this 2015 venue book. When email came along later, his entific Investigation of Claims of the he had an opportunity to speak at some father did not want it “because he knew , CSICOP (now CSI). length. he would be even more overwhelmed.” Colm Mulcahy, a professor of math- Growing up, James knew his dad (In his later years, however, James did ematics at Spellman College, called was “a skeptic par excellence,” who had help Martin do some research for his Martin “The Skeptic Supreme” and a set daily routine at their home at 10 columns on the Internet.) said, “He was, and is, a debunker.” He Euclid Street in Hastings-on-Hud- James listed his father’s literary he- also emphasized Gardner’s phenome- nal productiveness: he had 101 nonfic- tion books to his credit. (He showed a photo of Martin next to bookcase full of books all by Martin Gardner, joking that this was Martin Gardner “stand- ing by every word he wrote.”) Mulcahy made frequent references to CSICOP and to Gardner’s S I columns (published from 1983–2002) and the books based on them. Colm Mulcahy, Dana Richards, James Gardner, James Randi, and Jamy Ian Swiss in panel remembering Martin Gardner.

8 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

emphasize that Gardner “didn’t quite James Randi Also Feted follow the party line.” For one thing, he embraced the idea of mathematical at ‘Amazing’ Meeting Platonism, the idea that the universe is Martin Gardner wasn’t the only famed mathematics. Second, he was a mind skeptic honored at TAM 13. James (“The “mysterian,” which holds that the fun- Amazing”) Randi, who founded the damental nature of human conscious- TAM conference series and for whom ness may not be knowable. (Pigliucci it is named, was also the subject of referred to these two positions as 1) a hilarious opening skit created and Simon Singh tells of Martin Gardner’s infulence “weird, but not crazy.”) And third, performed by musician and TAM host on him as a skeptic. Gardner was famously a philosophical titled “Randi: The Musical”; theist. Pigliucci considered these three 2) a panel discussion with Randi hosted roes (William James, G.K. Chesterton, attributes, balanced them against all by fellow magician and TAM program L. Frank Baum, and Lewis Caroll) and of Gardner’s enormous contributions member Jamy Ian Swiss; 3) a special his “charlatans” (Ted Serios, L. Ron to science and skepticism, and derived Saturday evening reception and series Hubbard, Peter Popoff, Oral Roberts, three lessons: of invited tributes from Randi’s friends Uri Geller, and Dr. Oz for his “homeo- 1) Skepticism is about honest, critical and colleagues, ending with remarks by pathic things”). Martin’s champions inquiry. It is an intellectual attitude. Randi himself; and 4) Randi’s closing included “magicians,” Johnny Carson, It is not about adhering to a list of remarks on Sunday afternoon. Randi turned eighty-seven in August, Stanford statistician Persi Diaconis, specific positions. just after the conference, but seemed his James Randi, and “The Trap Door 2) Skeptics can and should be inspired usual irrepressible self throughout. Spiders,” a New York men’s literary and by role models, but role models are arguing club of mainly science-fiction not infallible or unquestionable. writers that included Isaac Asimov and 3) Skeptics either have to admit that “Let’s say the hell Arthur C. Clarke. some of their main figures hold to anti-vaxxers.” questionable positions or limit —James Randi “Dad wouldn’t talk before “skeptics” to a very small group. an audience, but with a (Pigliucci made clear he favors the typewriter he was direct, former.) truthful, honest.” Another speaker was Simon Singh, the British science writer and skeptic. — James E. Gardner Like so many others, he never met Gardner, “but he really influenced me.” Singh recounted a number of James referred to his father’s famous topics where Gardner influenced his reluctance to do public appearances writings, such as Fermat’s Last Theo- but his determination to engage with rem, cryptography, The Simpsons, cos- pseudoscience and other nonsense in mology, and quackery. print. “Dad wouldn’t talk before an A final special treat for the audience audience, but with a typewriter he was was the showing of a video of an inter- direct, truthful, honest.” view with Martin Gardner, taped by Philosopher Massimo Pigliucci James Randi and magician Jamy Ian (like Gardner, also a past S Swiss in Oklahoma on Martin’s nine- I columnist) spoke on Martin tieth birthday. It was a rare glimpse, in Gardner as a skeptic and public in- the latter part of his life, of a famously tellectual. Pigliucci said Martin “very shy and reclusive skeptic, known in early on influenced my skepticism” person to only a few close friends but and added, “I think Martin Gardner is who through his clear thinking and a good role model for all of us to aspire penetrating writings shaped two entire to.” But Pigliucci quickly went on to generations of scientific skeptics.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 9 Take action with us.

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Mysterious Clumps of Worms Line Texas Highways B  R Just a couple highlights: On his recently announced retire- ment from the board of the James Randi The deluge that flooded parts of Texas Educational Foundation (JREF): “Retire- in late May 2015 created a strange ment. . . . I haven’t noticed any reduction sight on a patch of the state’s highways: in work.” clumps of worms along the center line. He has nearly completed a new book, Thousands of worms, initially mistaken A Magician in the Laboratory. Only a few for discarded spaghetti, were found in more things need to be done before it is Eisenhower State Park in Denison, ready for the publisher. Texas. Randi wishes he had devoted atten- A June 2 ABC News article by tion during his career to “the anti-vaxx- Kaylee Heck explained: ers,” people who deny the enormous medical benefits of childhood vacci- The piles in the middle of Eisenhower State Park were actually nations. “Kids are going to die if these worms, Park Superintendent Ben anti-vaxxers get more of a grip on the Herman told ABC News. Rangers lore; a 2012 study published in open-ac- media.” Randi emphasized that he is were checking the back roads of the alive due to medical science, and many cess online journal PLoS-ONE titled park in Denison, Texas, found on people are alive today because modern May 29 when they found the piles “Self-Assemblage and Quorum in the medicine eradicated smallpox. “Let’s say lined up in a near-perfect straight Earthworm Eisenia fetida” describes “the the hell to anti-vaxxers.” line. “We’re still puzzled why they mechanisms that govern aggregation be- decided to line up in the middle of “I had an to inform the pub- the road,” Herman said. “Even our havior specially the tendency of individu- lic” about charlatans and pseudoscientific biologist doesn’t know why they’re als to leave or join groups in the compost nonsense and claptrap, Randi noted. “I’ve spaced so well and in the line.” earthworm Eisenia fetida.” put a lot of effort into that. I’ve put a lot The fact that the worms came out It’s not clear why no other Texas state of love into that. . . . I want to get back to of the ground isn’t a mystery: they can parks reported the same event, but there work. I can’t waste any time.” drown in rain-saturated soil. But why are several plausible explanations. For On advice to future skeptics: “Read did they migrate to the center line on the one thing, different Texas state parks anything by Martin Gardner. Anything.” road, and why did they appear in dozens got different amounts of rain and have He also advised reading Carl Sagan’s The of discrete, round clumps? The incident differing geological and soil conditions. Demon-Haunted World, the works of Isaac left many scratching their heads. What Unless that same type of worm was pres- Asimov, and “my books too.” was it? Some unknown force of nature? ent in areas with identical conditions, in- In his closing remarks Sunday, Randi A worm flash mob? cluding rain and soil drainage, we might acknowledged and thanked everyone for The answer lies in the fact that the not expect to see other cases. It’s also their supportive words during the confer- center line of the highway is the high- possible that the mysterious worm rings ence. “I cannot thank you enough.” He acknowledged “a lot of lovey stuff” said est point in the area (roads are designed could only have been formed on a closed about him. “I’ve had a lot of hugging here,” with a slight grade to allow for rain run- road; worms in other rain-saturated he noted, adding that he likes hugs. “It is off). As for the mysterious clumping be- areas of the state may have attempted havior, Sharon Hill of the site Doubt- time to say goodbye—for the year. Au re- the same thing but been crushed en voir. See you next year. OK?” fulNews.com looked into the case and masse by traffic tires long before they Note: Since James Randi’s retirement noted that: could make it to the relative safety of from the James Randi Educational Foun- Actually, research has been done on the center stripe and form the unusual dation (JREF) earlier this year, the JREF red wigglers that tend to clump in clusters. The dead worms would be board has been considering how to con- compost piles. Worms communicate by close contact with [each] other. unnoticed on highways and thus not tinue the foundation without his direct They may gather en masse when live long enough to do anything ar- involvement. On September 1, the JREF conditions are not quite right or in tistic or newsworthy. The worms re- board announced that it will convert the the open, then move, in a herd, to a mained for a few days before returning foundation into a grant-making founda- safe location. to the soil without answering questions tion. The announcement can be read at Because the road was closed due to about their motives. http://web.randi.org/home/jref-status. flooding, the center line was the safest and driest place for the worms to be. Benjamin Radford is deputy editor of This isn’t just a piece of animal folk- the S  I.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 11 Study Casts Doubt on Omega-3, Stephen Hawking Lends Antioxidant Brain Benefits Fame to New SETI Search B  R

Omega-3 fatty acids—found naturally in a variety of foods including walnuts, edible seeds, and fish oil—are important for the body’s metabolism. In recent years companies marketing vitamin supple- ments have touted omega-3 and antioxidants as important for main- taining brain health and preventing cognitive decline in later years. However, a large clinical trial conducted by the National Institutes of Health and published in the Journal of the American Medical As- sociation (August 25, 2015) casts doubt on those claims. In one of the largest and most comprehensive studies to date, nearly 4,000 patients were randomly assigned to one of four groups, including one that received a placebo. The average age of the participants was seventy-three, and nearly 60 percent were female. After testing for changes in cognitive func- ANDY RAIN/EPA/Newscom tion (first to establish a baseline for each patient and then at two- Famous physicist Stephen Hawking has joined year intervals) the researchers concluded, “There were no statistically Russian billionare Yuri Milner to launch a major new significant differences in change of scores for participants random- effort in the scientific search for extraterrestrial ized to receive supplements versus those who were not.” Since the intelligence (SETI). They held a press conference in patients did the same with or without the omega-3 and antioxidant London to announce injecting $100 million for a new supplements, there was no effect. project they call Breakthrough Listen. According to lead author Dr. Emily Chew, “Contrary to popular be- SETI pioneer Frank Drake is another notable fig- lief, we didn’t see any benefit of omega-3 supplements for stopping ure joining Break through Listen. SETI efforts rely on cognitive decline.” Though this study casts doubt on the benefit of private funding, and this new project aims to boost omega-3 supplements for older patients seeking to slow cognitive the radioastronomy search activity to unprecedented decline, younger patients may (or may not) benefit from them. There levels. is some research demonstrating that people who eat diets rich in fish “We would typically get 24 to 36 hours on a tele- and antioxidants have better brain health, but it’s not clear whether scope per year, but now we’ll have thousands of hours there’s a cause-and-effect relationship. It is possible that people per year on the best instruments,” UC Berkeley scien- who have healthier brains for other reasons (such as lifestyle hab- its or genetics) also are more likely to eat fish-and antioxidant-rich tist Andrew Siemion, one of the group’s cofounders, diets. said at the news conference. The study, by the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) They say the project will allow scientists to collect Research Group, is titled “Effect of Omega-3 Fatty Acids, Lutein/ as much data on SETI in a day as they now do in a Zeaxanthin, or other Nutrient Supplementation on Cognitive Func- year. The data will be made available to the public, so tion: The AREDS2 Randomized Clinical Trial.” anyone can help in the search.

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12 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT Stephen Hawking Lends Farmer in Chile Finds ‘Chupacabra’; Science Suggests Otherwise Fame to New SETI Search B  R

A goat farmer in Chile who found So if the weird remains found in two mysterious dead animals in early Chile are almost certainly not chupaca- January concluded that he may have bras, what are they? It’s difficult to the remains of the Hispanic vampire come to any definitive identification beast known as el chupacabra. The crea- based upon a few photographs, though ture, whose name is Spanish for “goat some characteristics of the creatures sucker,” is said to suck the blood from suggest an explanation. For one thing, small animals such as chickens and they lack any spikes down the back that goats. It has never been proven to exist, are characteristic of the original ch- though it is nearly as well known as upacabra. The skull, paws, and tail look Bigfoot and the . feline, and the size (about a foot long) According to the January 22 Daily would match a common housecat. The Star, “Goat farmer Javier Prohens was fact that the animals were found laying having lunch with friends when ter- one atop the other, as kittens sometimes rified farmhand 54-year-old Bricio do, may be relevant as well. A mother Saldivar alerted them to the bodies of cat may have given birth to a litter and the strange creatures on the outskirts of two of the unfortunate kittens may have the small town of Monte Patria in the been crushed to death by a bale of hay east central Chilean province Limari.” that toppled over onto them. Prohens described his farmhand’s reac- Where the animals were found pro- tion: “He was clearly scared and said Amid all the sensational vides another clue: inside a wine cellar. he had been up at the old winery and This is where domesticated animals found two strange bodies.” The partially news stories about such as cats are known to wander, hide, mummified carcasses were found amid these bloodsucking and even give birth—but conspicuously hay bales in a cellar, and “at first we monsters, there has so not a place associated with chupacabras, thought they might be bats, but when which are invariably reported outside, we looked closer, we realized they had far been no analysis by usually in desert areas (such as rural to be something else as the heads were zoologists or scientists. Texas) or in rainforests (such as Puerto too big for bats. . . . And then someone Rico’s El Yunque preserve, said to be said they looked like Chupacabras,” the original home of the chupacabra). Prohens was quoted as saying. An indoor chupacabra would be a first. The chupacabra was first reported Furthermore, there is no suggestion by in August 1995 by a woman in Puerto ing over time. Fewer and fewer people Prohens or anyone else that any goats Rico who described seeing a bizarre claimed to see the bipedal, spiky-spined or other animals had been found mys- bipedal alien-like creature with spikes teriously drained of blood, as the ch- monster, and by 2000 it had completely down its back. Soon it was dubbed upacabra is known to do; in any event, disappeared and was replaced by a va- the “chupacabra” and caused a media the mummified mammals had been riety of four-legged animals left hair- sensation that spread throughout the dead for many months or even years. less by the skin disease mange. When Spanish-speaking world. However, Amid all the sensational news sto- medical and DNA tests were done on as described in my book Tracking the ries about these bloodsucking monsters, Chupacabra: The Vampire Beast in Fact, these “chupacabras,” they were revealed there has so far been no analysis by zo- Fiction, and Folklore, it was later deter- to be ordinary animals including dogs, ologists or scientists. The flesh of these mined that the eyewitness had actually coyotes, and raccoons. Last year, a cou- carcasses should be preserved enough to (and mistakenly) described a monster in ple in Ratcliffe, Texas, claimed to have yield a definitive DNA sample, should the sci-fi thriller Species, which she had found a chupacabra that turned out to Prohens or anyone else wish to submit recently seen. be a raccoon. The word chupacabra is it to a laboratory. If public curiosity Though the original chupacabra re- now used to describe any animal that prompts the remains to be tested, the port has been discredited, the stories cannot be immediately identified or results will likely come back as a known and sightings spread through the media otherwise looks mysterious, either be- animal—just like all previous “chupaca- I with the monster’s description chang- cause of hair loss or decomposition. bras”—but the mystery will remain.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 13 [SPECIAL REPORT MEDICAL MISINFORMATION

From N-Rays to EmDrives When Does Science Become Pseudoscience? DAVID KOEPSELL

fair amount of pseudoscience begins as blue-sky, basic scientific hypotheses peer-review procedure, they convened a and experiments. Hypotheses can challenge basic accepted notions, or begin press conference to announce they had Awith them, and may yet somehow go off the rails. How does this happen, achieved fusion at room temperature. and at what point do scientific inquiries become obsessive or pathological? Their science was based on a falsifi- Consider N-rays. able hypothesis. There are theoretically Shortly after the discovery of X-rays, some conditions under which low-en- Prosper-René Blondlot was conducting ergy nuclear reactions could occur, but experiments on electromagnetic radia- Pons and Fleischmann’s experiment tion, specifically attempting to observe was not the success they had claimed. polarized X-rays, when he noticed ap- It was the hopeful Within a few weeks, labs around the parent changes in the brightness of observation of a world were announcing their failures to photographed sparks in an X-ray beam. produce anything like the temperatures Unable to account for the changed researcher who, that Pons and Fleischmann reported, brightness according to current knowl- like several hundred and no neutron radiation, which would edge about X-rays, he proposed that a have been a necessary fingerprint of a new form of radiation was being ob- others around the fusion reaction. Some interesting chem- served, which he called N-rays. Using globe, was seeing “detectors” made of a dim phosphores- cent material, researchers around the something he wanted world began perceiving N-rays, con- to see. cluding similarly that the unexpected in- creases in luminosity that they perceived were corroboration of the new form of radiation. Within a few years, over 300 papers were published on the subject. Roger Shawyer, the British scientist who in- Roger Shawyer, Satellite Propulsion Research Ltd When some rather notable scien- Another more recent example is the vented the EmDrive tists, including Lord Kelvin, failed to Pons and Fleischmann “cold fusion” be able to reproduce the results, doubt debacle. These scientists working at about the existence of N-rays began to the University of Utah were attempt- istry may have been occurring, but not grow. But when Robert Wood visited ing to create “cold fusion” in a crystal fusion. The negative results of other Blondlot’s lab and surreptitiously re- lattice, an attempted shortcut to the labs falsified the science, just as Wood’s placed a part of the apparatus and test high-energy fusion that has so far been fiddling with the apparatus did in the materials during the course of the ex- achieved only in H-bombs and in To- N-rays case, and pursuit thereafter— periment, Blondlot noted no change komak and inertial confinement reac- at least of the Pons and Fleischmann in his detection of N-rays. Only then tors (both high-energy) to a limited process for cold fusion—became pseu- did it become clear that what was being degree. Having observed some rather doscientific (as indeed, people are still perceived did not exist. It was the hope- remarkable heat and supposed neutron attempting to reproduce their result, ful observation of a researcher who, radiation from their setup, they rushed though not with any willing, respect- like several hundred others around the to tell the world. Part of their rush may able funders). globe, was seeing something he wanted have apparently been to achieve prior- Recently there have been some to see. He lacked equipoise; he had be- ity in getting a patent on their process, rather breathless accounts of the dis- come vested in a certain result. but instead of going through the usual covery of a new form of propulsion that

14 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer appears to violate the Newtonian law of would be some sort of statistical cor- of a theory with a falsifying test. This is conservation of momentum. It uses no relation without any hope of falsifying the fundamental difference between sci- propellant and yet has been reported to (or indeed confirming) causation. ence and faith, and science can become produce thrust via creation of micro- If a hypothesis is capable of falsifi- like faith when scientists are unwilling to waves in a certain-shaped cavity. The cation through experiment, it is con- let go of dogma in the face of evidence. EmDrive was first developed by Brit- sidered to be a scientific hypothesis, While accepting new theories takes the ish scientist Roger Shawyer. Versions regardless of whether it conflicts with accumulation of evidence, the falsifica- have been tested by labs in China, the accepted scientific theory. This is be- tion of a hypothesis or theory can occur United States (at the Johnson Space cause derived from Popper’s notion of with a single experiment. Weeding Center, NASA), and now Germany. falsification is the understanding that out pseudoscience from science thus So far, in each of the labs conducting even the most dearly embraced theories has two major paths: asking whether tests, force has been observed at vary- in science are also subject to potential a hypothesis is capable of falsification ing levels in each of the slightly varying falsification. Theory cannot become and conducting experiments that seek experimental setups. dogma, and so it too must be capable to falsify the hypothesis. The latter So far, no one can account for the of being proved wrong through an ex- method found N-rays and cold fusion force measured, and even while all labs to be pseudoscience. are measuring force while trying to Has the EmDrive slipped over the eliminate experimental artifacts that line toward pseudoscience? Not yet. might create false positives, no nega- A hypothesis is However, with each new experiment, tive or falsifying experiments have yet the apparent thrust measured appears shown EmDrives to be totally fruitless. considered to be to be dwindling, which may be be- Something interesting may be happen- pseudoscientific if and cause indeed there is something going ing, and no doubt still more labs will on that causes false positive measure- attempt to replicate force, measure pos- only if it is incapable ments. There is certainly reason to sible thrust, and may even try to create of falsification. remain skeptical, especially since the working prototypes—unless someone proposed propulsion system appears to falsifies the hypothesis. This can be Any hypothesis that violate a basic, well-accepted (though done by a) locating the experimental is logically capable of always contingent) physical law. Of artifact that is causing measurements of force where there is no real thrust, or b) being falsified through course, many of us hope for cheaper, replicating the experiment and measur- some experiment is better, more efficient means to achieve ing no force (perhaps having eliminated considered scientific. long distance space travel. The Em- somehow whatever effects may be caus- Drive may lead to such technology, but ing false positive results). it may well not; we should pursue any For most modern philosophers of and all theoretically feasible means be- science, the primary means by which sides the EmDrive, considering it could well turn out to be just like N-rays and we consider something scientific cen- I ters around Karl Popper’s notion of fal- periment tomorrow. In fact, science at cold fusion. sification. A hypothesis is considered to its best continually tests accepted the- be pseudoscientific if and only if it is in- ory, because our theories, which are David Koepsell is di- models about the structure of nature, capable of falsification. Any hypothesis rector of education that is logically capable of being falsified must always be considered contingent. for the Center for In- through some experiment is consid- Scientists reasonably over time become quiry and a visiting ered scientific. The test centers not on more confident in the accuracy of these scholar at the Insti- whether that test is presently difficult models, as long as they continue to be tuto de Filosoficas to conduct; it may even be impossible confirmed—and more importantly not at UNAM in Mexico given current technology although log- falsified—through ongoing tests. City. He holds a law ically possible. Thus, hypotheses about Our models of nature presumably degree and a PhD in philosophy from the the effectiveness of prayer in healing are improve over time through testing and University at Buffalo. He has authored and pseudoscientific because no experiment through the maintenance of proper equi- can be conceived of to falsify a causal poise and disinterest by scientists who edited numerous books as well as popular link, and the best one could hope for must be willing to accept the downfall and scholarly articles.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 15 Is the EmDrive Pseudoscience? LEONARD TRAMIEL

he question of demarcation is an interesting and important one in the phi- as large as the effects seen. This was, losophy of science. It is, essentially: What is science? Where do we draw the conveniently, left out of the abstract, Tline between science and pseudoscience? I think that question is based on a but for the princely sum of $25 I got false premise, namely that a sharp division exists. I don’t think there is a sharp line access to the entire paper. but rather a gray area. On the other hand there are clearly some things that are The experimental device is basically pseudoscience and others that are science. So, in the cases where the distinction a microwave transmitter and a spe- exists, how do we tell them apart? cially shaped cavity that is supposed David Koepsell, in the adjacent observe thrusts close to the actual to produce thrust due to resonance article, has given one suggestion: The predictions after eliminating many effects. The power levels are high possible error sources that should pursuit of a claim moves from science warrant further investigation into enough that the components get quite to pseudoscience when the claim has the phenomena. warm. This left previous tests vulner- been falsified. So far, so good. Clearly, able to air currents, so a new feature if the claim is capable of being shown This is a classic sign of junk sci- of this test was added: some of it was false and then has been demonstrated ence: the use of obfuscation to make done in a vacuum. To exclude any to be false, any continued pursuit is a statement that says one thing but is magnetic effects, the apparatus was problematic at best. But does this test often read to say another. The state- isolated in a special metallic shield. always work? Alas, the answer is no. ment is clear. The experiment could The apparatus was attached to a sen- Let’s take the EmDrive as an exam- not confirm the claim; yet this sen- sitive torsion balance that can only ple. Looking at the most recent pub- detect horizontal deflections. They lication mentioned by Koepsell from tested the force on the apparatus when the group in Germany (http://arc.aiaa. the purported thrust was vertical as a org/doi/abs/10.2514/6.2015-4083), This is a classic sign of control and with the thrust pointing we see in their abstract an observed junk science: the use in both positive and negative angular thrust of about twenty micronewtons directions. (µN). This is the force of gravity on a of obfuscation to make So what did they see? Quoting mass of about two milligrams, or the a statement that says from the paper: “The control exper- weight of a small mosquito. In the ab- one thing but is often iment (vertical-upwards direction) stract of the paper we read: “. . . we actually gave the biggest thrust with do observe thrusts close to the actual read to say another. up to 224µN.” Yes, you read that predictions after eliminating many right, the control showed the largest possible error sources that should effect. Also quoting from the paper: warrant further investigation into the “We were really puzzled by this large phenomena.” Looks good, doesn’t it? thrust from our control experiment where we expected to measure zero.” But take another look at that excerpt tence was quoted widely as confirma- from the abstract. We’ll start with the They determined that this was due to tion! But what about the rest of that the magnetic interaction of the high preceding sentence, which says: clause, “or refute”? What is that doing currents in the experiment interact- Our test campaign can not con- there? Confusing the reader, that’s ing magnetically with the magnetic firm or refute the claims of the what. It is true that the test did detect shield. They removed the shield and EMDrive but intends to inde- a thrust, so why didn’t that confirm pendently assess possible side-ef- the control direction now resulted in fects in the measurements methods the claim? Because the experiment is a detection of a force about one-tenth used so far. Nevertheless, we do subject to systematic errors that are as large. The force measured with the

16 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer SPECIAL REPORT]

“thrust” in the positive direction was stood, and so thoroughly verified, that be reworked, probably in some funda- the same as the control, whereas the most people feel perfectly comfortable mental way. To say that this is unlikely force for the opposite “thrust” was a rejecting perpetual motion machines is a huge understatement. Momentum bit larger and in the other direction. without any consideration. non-conservation is, to say the least, So there are systematic effects that are It isn’t well known outside of the an extraordinary claim. It would re- of the same size as what is considered physics community, but the law of quire evidence so extraordinary I can’t the signal. This is clearly not a detec- momentum conservation is not just think of what it would be. Anything tion of a force from the experimental an experimentally verified assertion or that seemed to violate momentum device but from the test setup. It is just even a consequence of F=ma applied conservation would be assumed to magnetic effects caused by the inter- to a system with no external forces. be missing something. I submit that, action of the large currents with the Momentum conservation is required at least at a practical level, a claim of metallic components of the apparatus. by a truly magnificent result from momentum non-conservation is, even This is recognized by the authors as more than a perpetual motion ma- their paper ends: chine, a prima facie indicator of pseu- Next steps include better magnetic doscience. But I will relent a bit. If an shielding, further vacuum tests and experiment shows clear evidence of a improved EMDrive models with violation of momentum conservation, higher Q factors and electronics then some effort should be made to that allow tuning for optimal oper- So, is the EmDrive ation. As a worst case we may find find the error that caused it. But that how to effectively shield thrust bal- pseudoscience? isn’t what happened here. We didn’t ances from magnetic fields. I think it quite clearly have an experiment looking at some- thing else that seemed to show that So we now see that their test does is. The efforts to momentum was not conserved with a not refute the claims, because they scientific search to find the inevitable didn’t want it to. It seems quite likely preserve the “effect” error. Instead a device was constructed that they could have eliminated or are rife with the with the intention of finding that mo- characterized the magnetic effects, but trappings of mentum was not conserved. they didn’t. So, is the EmDrive pseudoscience? So this is one way Koepsell’s fine pseudoscience. I think it quite clearly is. The efforts suggestion fails. If you allow research- to preserve the “effect” are rife with ers like these to obfuscate their results the trappings of pseudoscience. I hav- so that they seem to leave room for an en’t mentioned this until now, but the effect, then you can escape the diag- mumbo-jumbo nomenclature used to nosis of pseudoscience while firmly describe it as an interaction with the abandoning any claim to actual sci- “quark vacuum virtual plasma” (which ence. To me this clearly puts the Em- mathematical physics known as No- doesn’t exist) clearly places it in that Drive in the realm of pseudoscience. ether’s Theorem. The fact that this category. But, as I have tried to ex- But there is another, more prob- theorem is not well known is, in my plain, this is one of those extremely lematic issue here. And by problem- opinion, a terrible shame. The the- rare cases where something is worthy atic I mean my position is hard to orem is beautiful, if esoteric, and it of the term pseudoscience right out of justify. As skeptics we don’t hold any highlights the work of one of the least I the box. ideas as dogma. Everything is up for appreciated contributors to our mod- Leonard Tramiel is re-evaluation; all knowledge is tenta- ern understanding of physics, Emmy a physicist and for- tive. Or is it? From a purely theoretical Noether. She was a German mathe- mer vice president, point of view, we can say that all ideas matician (1882–1935) who revolu- software, of Atari. are vulnerable to revision, but some tionized the areas of abstract algebra More recently he are so well established it seems patho- and theoretical physics; even Einstein has concentrated logical to actually consider them that called her a genius. Space doesn’t per- on advocating for way. There is a well-known class of mit an attempt (probably in vain) to science and science ideas that can be immediately rejected: convey the power of Noether’s The- education. He is on the Executive Council perpetual motion machines. These orem, but the law of momentum of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry purported devices would violate either conservation is a consequence of it. If and on the board of directors of the Cen- the first or second laws of thermody- momentum is not conserved, the en- namics. These laws are so well under- tire structure of physics would need to ter for Inquiry.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 17 [ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, is CSI’s senior research fellow. As a historical-document detective, he has worked on many famous cases (he was on the American forensic team that proved the Jack the Ripper diary a forgery), and he is author of such books as Pen, Ink, and Evidence and Detecting Forgery.

Poltergeist Scribbler: The Bizarre Case of Matthew Manning

Signatures on the Walls hat has been called “one of however, “It would be impossibly dif- the most extraordinary out- Covering the walls of Matthew’s ficult and time-consuming to try to Wbreaks of poltergeist phenom- bedroom—from floor to ceiling— identify them all.” ena” of the twentieth century began appeared over six hundred signatures The writings were supposedly pro- with an English schoolboy, aged eleven of deceased persons, most bearing dates duced by “discarnate entities” using and a half years, Matthew Manning spanning six centuries (Figure 1). By pencils that were left lying on a table. (Harrison 1994, 9). August 6, they had largely ceased, but These writings were never seen being Like many other disturbances la- there were occasional later additions. done—unlike Matthew’s later auto- beled poltergeist (from poltern “noisy” Among the writings were seven “poetic matic writings and drawings (to be dis- and geist “spirit”), the events began with aphorisms” that were signed “Robert cussed presently) that were frequently rapping sounds, objects thrown about, observed as he produced them (Beloff heavy furniture moved, objects disap- 1994, 5). In my experience, a spiritu- pearing (but sometimes reappearing in alistic phenomenon that appears shy other rooms), and so on. The activities about being witnessed is most likely not only centered around Matthew and faked. And the idea that a ghost— his home at Queen’s House, Linton, which necessarily lacks a brain—could Cambridge, but they followed him grip a pencil, let alone engage in writ- to boarding school. Many of today’s ing, is ludicrous. paranormal believers suggest the phe- Dr. Vernon Harrison—described as nomenon, once attributed to the devil, a handwriting expert and professional is caused by psychokinetic (“mind-over- photographer—took photos of the wall matter”) energy from pubescent chil- writings before they were painted over, dren with repressed hostilities (Gui- and then studied them. Although he ley 2000, 293–295). However, proper found problems here and there, he con- investigation typically shows the ef- vinced himself that the writings “were fects are simply due to the mischief of examples of direct writing by some en- clever children. I have therefore termed tity or entities,” but he was careful to the phenomenon the poltergeist-fak- add, “I do not insist on it” (Harrison ing syndrome (Nickell 2012, 325–331; 1994, 39). John Beloff of the Society for Bartholomew and Nickell 2015, 129, Figure 1. Matthew Manning’s bedroom walls were covered Psychical Research (which published 136–137). with over 600 historical “signatures.” (Photo by Vernon Harrison) Harrison’s lengthy report) thought the The phenomena at Queen’s House behavior that deliberate hoaxing would that began in February 1967 soon have required “is so bizarre that the waned but then were renewed more Webbe.” A significant number of the case would at least force us to question violently beginning at Easter 1971 and dated signatures are those of Webbe our assumptions regarding the limits of continuing through the summer. On family members—former tenants of human perversity” (1994, 5–6). July 31 a new phenomenon appeared the house—or others connected to it Matthew would have been the obvi- and continued for a week. The effect, in some way, including persons who ous, and perhaps only, suspect for hoax- shown in photographs (Harrison 1994, resided in the vicinity or in nearby ing. Since the signatures that covered 70–72) is remarkable. villages. Admits Harrison (1994, 10), the bedroom walls like graffiti came as 18 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Automatic Writings part of a “poltergeist” outbreak, the iver Cromwell 1643” (Harrison 1994, prankster may have been looking for 76), not only fails to have any resem- Soon, Matthew Manning had dis- attention. In fact, we learn: blance to genuine signatures of Crom- covered that he could produce “auto- Matthew had been working on well (cf. Rawlins 1978, 24, 25, 55), but matic” writing. In this activity, spir- local history as part of a school it even has some wrong (non-Crom- its allegedly guide the hand of the project, so some of the names must wellian) letter forms. Moreover, it is in “entranced” medium to produce writ- have been familiar to him. “Webbe” the same hand as that of some of the ings, drawings, or other expressions. If said that he had noticed his good other bogus scripts—mostly variations not deliberately faked, such activities work and decided to help him by providing him with “half a thou- of the hand of “Robert Webbe,” as are attributed to persons producing sand” names of his “friends, allies Harrison admits (1994, 16, 19), some the effects while in a dissociative and family.” (Harrison 1994, 10) of them “ornamented.” state. (Dissociation is the unconscious Then there is the evidence that process in which a group of mental the individual who actually wrote the activities are separated from the main Handwriting Examination scripts failed to understand the hand- stream of consciousness and so func- I was determined to make my own writing of the periods in question. tion as a separate unit.) (Nickell 2012, examination of the photographed Thus, even though he offers writings 204–205, 347; Mühl 1963) wall writings. (I have had train- dated in the sixteenth century for ex- As with the “signatures,” there ing in forensic writing examination ample, he shows no knowledge of the are serious problems with the “auto- [Handwriting 2008], authored text- common English Secretary Hand that matic” writings of Manning. In the books in the field [Nickell 1990; evolved in the late fifteenth century case of a message purportedly from 1996; 1999; 2009], and worked on psychical researcher Frederic W. H. many famous cases. These include Myers (1843–1901), not only does the alleged diary of Jack the Ripper, the script bear no resemblance to My- the manuscript of The Bondwoman’s ers’s handwriting, even lacking his Narrative, the purported original of nineteenth-century features (like the Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address, and lower-case “p” with tall ascender), but the identification card of Nazi war the “F” of the signature is even the criminal John Demjanjuk.) I studied wrong form (printed rather than cur- the wall writings at length. sive). Indeed, all of the “Myers” text Unfortunately, the “spirit” scripts is very similar to the print-writing of have the characteristics of having been Manning himself. Moreover (trump- slowly drawn rather than naturally ing the rationalization that Manning’s written. They exhibit unnatural even- hand was asserting itself while being Figure 2. Genuine signature of psychical researcher ness in pressure, reveal tremor from Frederic W. H. Myers (top) is shown with Matthew guided), what should have been “Fred- hesitancy, show occasional kinked Manning’s automatically written one, which is obviously eric W. H. Myers” is actually rendered lines betraying uncertainty of move- bogus. as “Frederick Myers.” (Figure 2; see ment, and demonstrate blunt begin- Harrison 1994, 33–34, 91–93.) ning and ending strokes. (See Nickell There are similar problems with 1996, 65–72.) These are traits associ- other writings. Bertrand Russell, the ated with imitative writings, such as atheist philosopher, supposedly writes forgeries, yet these are not the most and continued well into the seven- in acknowledgment that, indeed, one serious faults. teenth (Nickell 1990, 122–124, 202– does not die at death. Spiritualists Most of the “signatures” cannot re- 203). Apart from the handwriting per such as Manning are always trying to ally be called that because—as in the se, there are anachronisms, such as posthumously convert nonbelievers, case of “Robert Webbe”—there are no “Robert Webbe’s” use of ye (for the but this shrewd attempt fails because, known examples of either signature or article the) that had become effectively once again, the writing is spurious: handwriting for comparison (Harrison obsolete long before Webbe’s death for example, the signature includes 1994, 11). The same is true of most of in 1736. Harrison (1994, 11) admits the wrong forms of the letters B and the other writings. Thus, if Matthew the use may have been intended to r. (See Harrison 1994, 89; cf. Rawlins Manning, say, were secretly making give, spuriously, a ye olde antique air to 1978, 198.) them, he would not have to reproduce the writing, and I am convinced that Again, the writing of “Millicent an actual signature, but merely write that is so. Another example is a copy Webbe” is bogus. Although there is in a variety of amateurishly created of an excerpt from the Anglo-Saxon no known specimen for comparison, it styles—rather like a mimic speaking Chronicle manuscript. The copyist has a welter of internal inconsistencies, different made-up voices. did not even understand the letter such as multiple variants of pseudo-an- A signature purporting to be that forms, let alone comprehend what the tique forms. Also, it is signed once of a well-known historical figure, “Ol- text said. (See Harrison 1994, 26, 86.) with its three letters e in Roman form,

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 19 [ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL and again with one Roman and two a single hand, and while clever, were others, revealing that the writer was Greek forms (Harrison 1994, 28, 87). obviously forgeries of known works unable to keep up the disguise (Har- (Gordon 1987, 101). rison 1994, 24–25). Automatic Drawings Consider one example of alleged Manning was also tested by phys- Manning automatism that Harrison In producing both automatic writings icist John Taylor (1980, 83) and col- (1994, 43) terms “the pièce de résis- and drawings, Matthew Manning fol- league Eduardo Balanovski as to his tance.” It is ostensibly a decorative lows in the footsteps of others with abilities in (the alleged pen-and-ink work by master Art multiple automatism skills, notably power of seeing things at a distance Nouveau illustrator Beardsley (1872– Rosemary Brown. She first claimed by or out-of-body travel). 1898), although “received” through to receive dictations of writing from The researchers judged the results to Matthew Manning. In fact, the draw- spirits of the dead (such as Albert be “completely unsuccessful.” ing is a composite of two forgeries of Einstein, Carl Jung, and George In brief, the evidence does not show Beardsley from a published book of Bernard Shaw), then, prompted by an Matthew Manning—self-proclaimed the artist’s works! (Harrison 1994, injury to pass time at her piano, began wonderworker and jack-of-all-trades 44). But even this evidence does not to receive compositions from noted occultist—to have the paranormal dissuade the credulous Harrison. composers such as Bach, Chopin, powers he professes. But he keeps try- I Mozart, and Rachmaninoff. Brown ing to convince us otherwise. Overall Assessment gave more than 400 public perfor- References mances of her “channeled” music. Matthew Manning began as the focus While some saw her as indeed exhib- of “poltergeist” activity that morphed Bartholomew, Robert E., and Joe Nickell. iting the various composers’ styles, into the phenomenon of spirit inscrip- 2015. American Hauntings: The True Stories behind Hollywood’s Scariest Movies—from others more critical regarded her as tions appearing all over his bedroom The Exorcist to The Conjuring. Santa only a mimic (Guiley 2000, 27). walls that in turn led to his becoming Barbara, CA: Praeger. an automatic writer and drawer. He Beloff, John. 1994. Editor’s Preface, Harrison has also claimed to be a psychokinetic 1994, 5–6. Manning’s automatic Booth, John. 1986. Psychic Paradoxes. Amherst, metal bender—though his efforts NY: . drawings appeared to cannot be distinguished from magic Gordon, Henry. 1987. Extrasensory Deception. be works by Aubrey tricks (Booth 1986, 57). And he has Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books. claimed to objects (i.e., cause Guiley, Rosemary Ellen. 2000. The Encyclopedia Beardsley, Paul Klee, of Ghosts and Spirits, second ed. New York: them to magically appear), commu- Checkmark Books. Henri Matisse, and nicate telepathically, astrally project Handwriting expert. 2008. Online at http:// himself into the past, and predict www.joenickell.com/HandwritingExpert/ Pablo Picasso—among the future (Guiley 2000, 27). By the handwritingexpert1.html; March 24; accessed June 8, 2015. others. 1990s, he was also calling himself a Harrison, Vernon. 1994. The signatures healer (Harrison 1994, 8). In fact, he on the walls of Queen’s House, Linton, has many of the traits associated with Cambridgeshire, and some of the automatic Manning’s automatic drawings ap- a fantasy-prone personality (Nickell scripts and drawings of Matthew Manning. Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Research peared to be works by Aubrey Beard- 2012, 347–348). 58(218)(July): 1–104. sley, Paul Klee, Henri Matisse, and Manning’s purported psychic abili- Mühl, Anita M. 1963. , sec- Pablo Picasso—among others. Pur- ties were tested in 1972 for a proposed ond ed. New York: Helix Press. portedly, the spirits of the great artists BBC broadcast. Researchers asked Nickell, Joe. 1990. Pen, Ink, and Evidence. Reprinted New Castle, DE: Oak Knoll would visit Manning while he was in him to provide information—using Books, 2003. a trance. He told the San Francisco Ex- automatic writing—about a set of ———. 1996. Detecting Forgery: Forensic aminer that an expert from Sotheby’s small objects as well as information Investigation of Documents. Lexington: in London had said a “Picasso” he had about the authors of some letters (each University Press of Kentucky. ———. 1999. Crime Science: Methods of Forensic done looked so much like an original in a sealed envelope). The information Detection. Lexington: University Press of that Sotheby’s would have authenti- Manning provided was essentially er- Kentucky. cated it had they not been informed roneous, and the planned broadcast ———. 2009. Real or Fake: Studies in it was a “Manning.” However, noted was canceled. Later it was observed Authentication. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky. psychical investigator James Randi that all but one of the eight extant ———. 2012. The Science of Ghosts: Searching wrote to Sotheby’s, receiving the automatic messages had been written for Spirits of the Dead. Amherst, NY: reply that the claim was “absolutely “clearly in variations of one hand” (that Prometheus Books. Rawlins, Ray. 1978. The Stein and Day Book of not true.” The official stated that the of “Robert Webbe”). The other began World Autographs. New York: Stein and Day. drawings allegedly done by “spirits of in an obviously disguised hand that Taylor, John. 1980. Science and the . various artists” were all produced by slowly evolved into a semblance of the New York: Dutton.

20 Volume 39 Issue 56 | Skeptical Inquirer NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD] MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and cofounder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

The Charlie Charlie Challenge

harlie, can we play?” This simple question— “Cand two pencils put on a cross drawn on a piece of paper—should allow you to evoke the spirit of a child or even a demon. This is the latest web craze known as the “Charlie Charlie Challenge,” perhaps dating back to an ancient Mexican tradition, an experience that intrigues kids and scares adults. Through a sort of séance, some claim people can ask questions to some un- seen entity that should be able to reply. It works like this: On a sheet of paper you draw a cross and in the four quadrants thus formed you write the words Yes and No. You then put a pencil on the sheet, corresponding The idea of a power those who play this game? Many un- to one arm of the cross, and a second allowing people to pleasant surprises that get worse over pencil you put perpendicularly onto the time.” And the president of the GRIS first. Then you ask if the spirit is pres- summon spirits extem- (Group of Socio-Religious Research ent, and when the top pencil moves on poraneously—and and Information), Father François Yes, you can start asking questions. If it Dermine, an exorcist, agrees: “I know a moves to No, just try again later. without the intervention lady who after dabbling in On social media, you can find vid- began to hear voices who told her to kill eos of people fleeing in terror as soon of a medium who needs and many other negative things that as the pencil starts moving, or kids who to fall into a trance—is made her head explode. She started a burst out laughing when the question series of exorcism sessions, but it was “Will I be rejected?” has the pencil anything but new. moving to No. not easy to free her; it took years of There are those who take this game pain and insomnia.” These rumors and quite seriously. In Jamaica, the Min- fears of negative consequences have no confirmation in reality beyond individ- istry of Education has issued a ban the game could unleash real supernatu- ual psychological problems. against students playing the game, as ral phenomena. has the Fiji Ministry of Education. The idea of a power allowing people The Catholic writer Annalisa Colzi In Italy, the head teacher of a middle to summon spirits extemporaneously— school in Ceres, in the province of Ve- is convinced: “Well, the play Charlie and without the intervention of a me- rona, has forbidden the game in class has this purpose: to enslave the souls dium who needs to fall into a trance— to avoid upsetting sensitive students. through the evocation of demons,” she is anything but new. During the late There are even those who worry that explains on her blog. “What happens to 1800s, the board was all the rage.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 21 [ NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO

It was a rectangular wood plate on the “spirits” suddenly stop commu- ers talking about the game as if it which the letters of the alphabet nicating. In other words, when the were new, when it’s actually—and were drawn, plus the words Yes and mind is absorbed in concentration, more interestingly, I think—an old No. Its name derived from the word the muscles obey the will of the op- game that has just recently crossed “Yes” in French and German. erator without him or her noticing. the language divide.” An indicator or planchette was This reaction is now known as the But can two pencils really un- placed on the board, and on it the ideomotor effect. leash supernatural forces? Of participants placed a finger. After This mechanism, however, course not. The movement is due a while, the indicator started to does not explain the Charlie Char- to the unstable equilibrium in the move, moving to several letters lie Challenge, since nobody here two pencils. Indeed, it is almost that formed, in sequence, words touches the pencils. What hap- impossible to keep the top pencil in response to questions put to the pens, and how did this phenome- still once it is set above the other spirit. A more recent version of non start? First, it should be noted one. Any air current, caused by a movement, a breeze, or even only by breath, is enough to trigger the When the mind is absorbed in concentration, rotation. Just try it. But a question remains: Are the muscles obey the will of the operator these seemingly supernatural games without him or her noticing. This reaction is bad for our kids? “There’s a real so- cial bonding aspect to this whole now known as the ideomotor effect. phenomenon,” says Stuart Vyse, a psychologist at Connecticut Col- lege, was quoted as saying on the website Vox. “It’s almost a devel- the Ouija sees the use of a board that it does not have ancient Mex- opmental passage for some kids, to of paper on which the alphabet let- ican origins but is something much deal with things that are scary.” ters are handwritten and, instead of more recent. Some have speculated However, there are no scien- the indicator, an upturned glass or it may be a viral marketing gim- tific studies yet about what effects a coin are used. Participants rest a mick designed to promote a horror playing games like the Charlie finger on the back of the glass and movie just coming out at the time, Charlie Challenge may have on it starts moving, indicating differ- The Gallows, but even if the film’s the psyche or behavior of kids. Says ent letters. The Ouija board was producers had tried to take advan- Mark Griffiths, a psychologist at later patented as a board game by tage of such free advertising, the Nottingham Trent University in Parker Brothers and can be easily game did not originate with them. England, in an article for The In- be found in toy stores. The origin seems rather a bal- dependent: The explanation for such phe- ancing act with pencils called “Ju- nomena has been well known since gando Charly Charlie” posted on As both a psychologist and a father of three adolescents, I the nineteenth century when phys- YouTube in 2014, or a variation of have yet to see any evidence icist Michael Faraday, studying a few years back. However, it seems that the playing of such games the phenomenon of moving tables that it was a sensational television does any psychological harm during séances, discovered that report aired last April on television although it’s not an activity that I it was not the spirits that moved in the Dominican Republic that would actively encourage either. As a teenager and as a university them but the people who were sit- triggered a worldwide interest in student I playfully engaged in ting around it resting their fingers the game. séances and at one party used a on the table surface. They did not For Caitlyn Dewey of the Wash- Ouija board and it never did me do so voluntarily, of course, but by ington Post, the game is the perfect any harm. Some may even argue involuntary muscular movements. example of a viral fad crossing cul- that such activities are “character In such cases, participants form tures: “Charlie makes a killer case building.” However, there may be children and adolescents of a words in response to the questions study in virality and how things more sensitive disposition where asked, pushing the indicator with- move in and out of languages and such games might have a more out noticing. However, should they cultures online. You’ll notice, for long-lasting negative detrimen- I lift their fingers from the indicator, instance, a lot of players and report- tal effect.

22 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER Sheaffer’s “Psychic Vibrations” column has appeared in the S  I  for nearly forty years; its highlights have now been published as a book (Create Space, 2011). Sheaffer blogs at www.BadUFOs.com, and his website is www.debunker.com.

The Rendle-Sham Case: Phony and Phonier

he Rendlesham Forest UFO land- Halt is now claiming: ing case (sometimes referred to as “I have confirmation that (Ben- T“the British Roswell”) involved twaters radar operators) . . . saw the supposed landing (or at least “close the object go across their 60 mile encounter”; the story is inconsistent) of (96km) scope in two or three sec- a UFO in Rendlesham Forest, Sussex, onds, thousands of miles an hour, he came back across their scope United Kingdom, in December 1980. again, stopped near the water Just like the story of the fish that tower, they watched it and observed got away, it gets bigger with each it go into the forest where we were,” telling: the more time that passes the said Col Halt. more exciting the Rendlesham case “At Wattisham, they picked up becomes. In what has almost become what they called a ‘bogie’ and lost it an annual ritual, one of the supposed near Rendlesham Forest.” witnesses invents a new and dramatic “Whatever was there was clearly claim to “prove” that the case is real. under intelligent control.” British skeptic Ian Ridpath has long stayed on top of this case (his work can be found at http://goo.gl/ In what has almost mNZOcc). Here is his summary of it: become an annual ritual, Although the overall case is com- plex, the main aspects can be sum- one of the supposed marized as follows: witnesses invents a

1. Security guards saw bright He also saw a flashing light in the new and dramatic claim lights apparently descending into direction of Orford Ness but was to “prove” that the Rendlesham Forest around 3 a.m. unable to identify it. on December 26, 1980. A bright 5. Col. Halt reported seeing star- case is real. fireball burned up over southern like objects that twinkled and England at the same time. hovered for hours. The brightest of 2. The guards went out into the these, which at times appeared to Halt does not name the supposed radar forest and saw a flashing light send down beams of light, was in operators, nor does he say how he between the trees, which they the direction of Sirius, the bright- followed until they realized it est star in the sky. obtained this information. He claimed was coming from a lighthouse (at that the operators said nothing about Orford Ness). At its most basic, the case comes this until after their retirement, for fear down to the misinterpretation of a 3. After daybreak, indentations in of being “decertified” for reporting a the ground and marks on the trees series of nocturnal lights—a fire- were found in a clearing. Local ball, a lighthouse, and some stars. UFO. Even if this unlikely claim were police and a forester identified Such misidentifications are, of true, it does not correspond to what these as rabbit scrapings and cuts course, standard fare for UFOlogy; the supposed witnesses are reporting: made by foresters. it is only the concatenation of a UFO allegedly whizzing by at thou- 4. Two nights later the deputy three different stimuli that makes sands of miles an hour does not match base commander, Lt. Col. Charles this case exceptional. Halt, investigated the area. He the UFO(s) allegedly seen hovering for took radiation readings, which The BBC reported on July 13 (at hours above the forest and even landing revealed only background levels. http://goo.gl/fnMWnL) that Col. there.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 23 [ PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER

Lee Speigel wrote in the Huffington suits” (https://goo.gl/Swf8cy). By his that Penniston wrote down the wrong Post on July 21 that Halt says this new account, many other Air Force person- date and time for the event in his note- information will “blow the lid off” the nel saw these creatures, but nobody else book (http://goo.gl/IgkM2W). Rendlesham Forest sightings: has reported them. Penniston now says that the binary We previously reported how Halt Another supposed witness, John data from the Rendlesham UFO was accused the U.S. government of cov- Burroughs, has implied while suppos- sent by time travelers, which makes ering up UFO information, and he edly under hypnosis that he and Sgt. sense since aliens would hardly be ex- believes there’s a top secret agency that’s in charge of anything to do Penniston were abducted by beings pected to encode their messages using with possible extraterrestrial visits onto the UFO for about forty minutes ASCII, the American Standard Code to Earth. “There is a contract civil- and brought back to a different place for Information Interchange. But time ian agency, that is fed information, (https://goo.gl/sxh8V2). Supposedly travelers from a future Earth might that is controlling everything. It’s made up of either former military, base personnel saw them being lifted possibly still be using ASCII 6,000 high-level government agencies or up to the object and worried that they years from now (and probably Micro- high-ranking, very knowledgeable soft Windows as well). When Pennis- scientists. I can almost guarantee ton was interviewed on a 2011 podcast you. That’s the way we do it. And disinformation is the biggest thing,” This is not the first time by Angela Joiner, his story got all tan- Halt told HuffPost on Friday. that Halt has “jazzed up” gled up under her questioning. Pen- niston got confused whether he knew The Daily Express of London reported his account of the what the code meant as it was being on July 14 that Halt said: Rendlesham incidents. transmitted (https://goo.gl/8y8bhE). • Rendlesham Forest was mobbed He finally decided that he knew what with US military personnel “hunting UFOs” at the time. six pages of it meant, but he thought • A “UFO exploded” before his eyes the rest of it “didn’t mean nothin’.” and another “shot down a laser What does Penniston’s supposed beam” from 3,000 feet above. “binary code” supposedly mean? The • The UK Ministry of Defence later hid documents relating to well-known British UFOlogist Nick Rendlesham. Pope writes: • US personnel who “lost 40 min- Many people have attempted to utes” during the sighting have translate the Rendlesham Code. been denied access to medical The best-known suggestion so far is files. “Exploration of humanity. Continuous Speaking at a UFO conference for planetary advance. Eyes of your in Woodbridge, Suffolk, he said: eyes. Origin year 8100.” Also included “There is no doubt in my mind we is a list of geographical co-ordinates are not alone and there are some would never be returned. Currently which seem to match up with a people (in power) who know this, Burroughs is charging that his inability number of mysterious and ancient but even Mr. (Barack) Obama won’t sites such as the Great Pyramid in get through to them.” to obtain medical care from the Veter- ans Administration is tied in with his Egypt and the Nazca Lines in Peru. Another co-ordinate corresponds This is not the first time that Halt alleged UFO encounter and that his has “jazzed up” his account of the with the fabled location of the “lost medical records are “classified.” Others continent” of Hy-Brasil, a supposed Rendlesham incidents. Ridpath de- see him as just one among thousands sunken island in the Atlantic, off scribes Halt’s “iffy affidavit,” written in of victims of the ongoing Veterans Ad- the West coast of Ireland, sometimes 2010, as a “disastrous attempt to rewrite ministration scandal in which veterans dubbed the “Celtic Atlantis” (http:// the facts of the case,” suggesting that goo.gl/jC2Zx7). have been denied medical care. “this product of his 30-year-old mem- Sgt. Jim Penniston (ret.), however, So it’s supposedly a binary message ory differs so substantively from what he said and wrote at the time that it relates a completely different UFO from the Celtic Atlantis in the year would be destroyed in a court of law” yarn, in spite of supposedly sharing in 8100. Sounds plausible. If you can (at http://goo.gl/Yyg6KG). Burrough’s UFO abduction. He claims describe any of these “witnesses” as What are other “top witnesses” from to have spent the forty minutes examin- “credible,” then you are much better at Rendlesham reporting? ing and touching a landed UFO and to “believing things” than me. Finally, the Airman Larry Warren claimed to have received a telepathic message from Rendlesham Forest now has its own have seen a light in the forest that “blew it in the form of a “binary code,” which official “UFO Trail,” with a map and an up,” then re-assembled itself, and alien he wrote down in real-time. However, explanation helpfully posted on a sign. beings came scampering out of it. He he did not tell anyone about this for A UFO encounter is a terrible thing I says they resembled “children in snow- over twenty years. Ridpath points out to waste. 24 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or coauthor of seven books, including Mysterious New Mexico: , Magic, and Monsters in the Land of Enchantment.

Beware Mesmer Thieves!

Can thieves really use hypnosis to rob people? There’s a strange news story from : England in which that’s claimed to have happened. Q —Paul Harris

I examined the bizarre case Harris referred to and began by consulting several news sources (Dubuis and Freeman 2014, : Telegraph Video 2014, etc.). An article in the London Evening A Standard summarized the circumstances: A “hypnotist thief ” apparently put as Mr. Haider turned to face him. the owner of an upmarket off-li- He reached into his other pocket cence in a trance before rifling and pulled out the day’s takings, through his trouser pockets and hundreds of pounds in a bundle stealing the day’s takings. Friends of notes, before tapping him once today said Aftab Haider, 56, the more on the shoulder and quickly owner of independent wine mer- walking out. Mr. Haider snapped chants Hops and Pops in Highgate, out of the trance a few seconds north London, was “stunned” by later. (Dubuis and Freeman 2014) the theft of hundreds of pounds in cash. The raid mirrors techniques The event happened around 9:45 used as entertainment by street on the evening of September 11, 2014, magicians and is the first time its nearly three months before the story use in crime has been captured on CCTV in the UK. The suspect, an was reported (reasons for the delay are Eastern European man wearing a not clear but may have been the re- black bomber jacket, brushed past sult of police trying to restart a stalled Mr. Haider as he placed a bot- investigation by releasing the security tle on a shelf, and gently tapped camera footage and asking the public him on the arm. A few seconds later, the suspect made a stabbing for assistance in identifying the thief). gesture with his right hand at eye- Detective Sergeant Dave Bullock was level which appeared to leave Mr. quoted in the news story: “The victim Haider, known as Aziz, mesmer- remained motionless and unable to ised. He reached inside the motion- stop the robbery taking place. He said less shop owner’s trouser pocket, and pulled out his wallet before that he was momentarily unaware of briefly squeezing his shoulder. The what had happened to him. The sus- thief, who kept up a quietly-spoken pect’s distraction tactics appeared to patter throughout, then mimed the have worked as he robbed the victim gesture of a pregnant woman’s belly of cash from his pocket.”

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 25 A Closer Look shoulder touch could be a trigger.” ble to know what exactly happened in The news story was widely taken at Yet why would the hypnosis thief that London shop. However, a hyp- face value at the time and shared as tap his victim on the shoulder, appar- notist thief is the least likely explana- a “weird news” item in news outlets ently bringing him to his senses, just tion. It’s more likely that Haider was and on social media. However, a before leaving? If you have someone simply confused or stunned for a few closer look at the reported circum- doing your will and under your power, moments during the robbery (when stances of the theft raises skeptical why would you release them from startling things—such as a robbery— questions. For example, how could that power before—not after—trying happen people sometimes simply and the thief know that Mr. Haider had to escape? Any thief who wanted to involuntarily “freeze up” in an inde- the day’s receipts in his pocket at assure a clean getaway would simply cisive fight-or-flight moment; this that time? The money could have leave the shopkeeper mesmerized; to might account for the statement that been anywhere in the business, from not do so is like a bank robber paus- he was “momentarily unaware” of a safe to a cash register, yet the robber ing to untie his or her bound victims his surroundings). In fact, the thief’s seemed to know exactly where the before leaving the bank so they can actions look very much like those of money was and when. Furthermore, promptly summon police. an accomplished pickpocket using the video does not, in fact, reveal And why would a thief risk going distraction and misdirection, and the shopkeeper being “mesmerized.” into the same place twice? Sometimes the sensational hypnotism claim may simply be a post-hoc rationalization There is no clinical evidence whatsoever that by Haider for his inaction. It’s also possible that the robbery was staged; a hypnotist can make a person simply forget faked workplace robberies and thefts an experience they had—in fact the effect is are not unknown and allow employ- usually exactly the opposite; a careless ees to account for missing money. hypnotist can easily create false memories Other Hypnosis Thefts of things that never happened. This is not the first time that people have reported being robbed by hyp- notists. In 2014 a German woman claimed she was hypnotized (by psy- Though many news stories stated thieves may make a trial run to “case chics, no less) outside of a supermar- that as an obvious and established the joint” and establish entrances, ket, put into a trance, and later woke truth, there is of course no way to exits, security measures of an intended up at home having been robbed: confirm that aside from Haider’s robbery, and so on—but that’s appar- A pair of hypnotists are being own claim—which may or may not ently not what happened here since hunted by police after a victim be accurate even assuming that is his the route in and out is very short and claimed she was put in a trance sincere belief. clear, and there was seemingly no ef- before being robbed. Police in Germany are investigating a spate In trying to address the implau- fort to evade security cameras. There’s of crimes involving two Russian sibility of a single-event hypnosis, also the unasked question of why, if women who tell their victims they some claimed that the thief must the thief had previously hypnotized will read their fortune. In one inci- have previously pre-hypnotized Haider, he wouldn’t remember the dent 66 year-old Sarah Alexeyeva Haider in preparation for such a encounter. This element of the story told detectives she was spoken to outside an Aldi supermarket bold and bizarre robbery. Magician echoes popular culture assumptions in Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein. Damien O’Brien, who has appeared of hypnosis but not the psychological But the next thing she knew she on the BBC, speculated in the Eve- research. There is no clinical evidence snapped out of a trance and was ning Standard that Haider may have whatsoever that a hypnotist can make sat in her armchair at home. All been previously hypnotized by the a person simply forget an experience her jewellery and valuables had suspected thief who unconsciously they had—in fact the effect is usually disappeared, police said. (Bradley 2014) implanted “trigger words” that would exactly the opposite; a careless hyp- allow a quick hypnosis on a later visit: notist can easily create false memories According to a 2008 BBC News “He may have said on an earlier visit of things that never happened. story, “Police in Italy have issued that the next time he comes in and There has been no follow up ar- footage of a man who is suspected touches the man on the shoulder he is rests or additional information on of hypnotizing supermarket check- going to go into a relaxed trance and this strange case since it made the out staff to hand over money from will let him go into his pockets. The news, and at this remove it’s impossi- their cash registers. In every case, the

26 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer BENJAMIN RADFORD SKEPTICAL INQUIREE ]

last thing staff reportedly remembered Lynn, John Ruscio, and Barry Beyer- confusion, but there’s no reason to fear I was the thief leaning over and saying: stein debunk this popular myth: hypnotist bandits. ‘Look into my eyes,’ before finding the Recent survey data show that pub- References till empty” (‘Hypnotist’ Thief 2008). lic opinion resonates with media There’s a certain creepy gothic fear portrayals of hypnosis. Specifically, Bradley, Chris. 2014. Shopper robbed after to the idea that a mesmerizing stranger 77% of college students endorsed she was hypnotised as she stood outside an can ask you to stare deeply into his the statement that “hypnosis is an ALDI. Daily Mirror (March 4). Online at altered state of consciousness, quite http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/ eyes, or ask you to follow a pocket different from normal waking con- watch swaying seductively to and fro, shopper-robbed-after-hypnotised-stood- sciousness.”. . . But research refutes 3205775. these widely accepted beliefs. and listen to him count backwards Dubuis, Anna, and Simon Freeman. 2014. Hypnotized people are by no means into a hypnotic trance. But it’s pure Shopkeeper ‘placed in trance by hypno- fiction. Hypnosis is a widely misun- mindless automatons. (Lilienfeld et al. 2010) tist’ during theft in north London. London derstood psychological phenomenon, Evening Standard (December 5). Online due largely to its depictions in pop- Hypnosis is not some special al- at http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/ ular culture and film. One common tered state of consciousness but simply moment-hypnotist-put-shopkeeper-in- myth about hypnosis is that it can put a form of deep relaxation. Stage hyp- a-trance-before-stealing-hundreds-of- pounds-in-cash-9904960.html. someone into a helpless or suggestible nosis—such as the kind seen in Las ‘Hypnotist’ thief hunted in Italy. 2008. BBC trancelike state. If it were possible to Vegas comedy acts where “suggest- News (March 22). Online at http://news. simply stare deeply into a stranger’s ible” audience members get onstage bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7309947.stm. eyes to induce a trancelike, compli- and pretend to be chickens or caught Lilienfeld, Scott, Steven Jay Lynn, John Ruscio ant state, then it would happen all the in embarrassing situations—is not true et al. 2010. 50 Great Myths of Popular time. Anyone with practice or skill in clinical hypnosis but instead a combi- Psychology. New York: Wiley-Blackwell. hypnosis could easily turn to a life of nation of showmanship, exhibitionism, Telegraph Video. 2014. Hypnotist thief puts shopkeeper in trance before robbing him. crime by walking into a bank, casting and participatory comedy. It’s not clear The Telegraph (December 5). Online at a hypnotic stare at a teller, and take why a person would believe or assume http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ whatever they like. In their book 50 that he or she had been put into a hyp- crime/11274801/Hypnotist-thief-puts- Great Myths of Popular Psychology, psy- notic trance when they had not. Such shopkeeper-in-trance-before-robbing-him. chologists , Steven Jay a belief may be due to memory loss or html.

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Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 27 THE

MYSTERY DELUSION

28 Volume 37 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer THE

MYSTERY DELUSION Looking Back after Forty Years

The man who solved the Bermuda Triangle “mystery” looks back after four decades on his investigations into the missing flight that started it all and the shoddy research, gullibility, and distortions that created this mystery.

LARRY KUSCHE

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2013 29 orty years have passed since my book The Ber- muda Triangle Mystery—Solved was published in 1975. The most important chapter is “Flight 19,” the account of the five Navy Avenger tor- pedo bombers and a Martin Mariner PBM that Fdisappeared on December 5, 1945. Flight 19 was on an overwater navigation-training flight from Fort Lauder- dale, Florida, to the Bahamas and back. The Mariner was searching for the Avengers after they got lost.

The disappearance account—based on my research that included the of Flight 19 is the official Navy report of the disaster, the personal re- most famous, dra- cords of flight leader Charles C. Taylor, the ninety-two matic, complicated, personal interviews that I conducted, and my flight and relevant incident of the route—is a microcosm of how the mystery/ in the part of the At- delusion of the entire Bermuda Triangle story came lantic Ocean off the southeastern coast of the United about, and how I came to realize that the Bermuda States that, twenty years later, would become known Triangle is one of the biggest frauds/delusions that as the mysterious Bermuda Triangle. The original has ever been perpetrated. mystery story of Flight 19, as it was told for decades Flight 19 is such a significant part of the Triangle by those who did little or no research in authoritative story that, if the planes had safely returned to base, sources, when compared to the true and accurate the concept of the Bermuda Triangle would never have been created. We would never have heard of the Bermuda Triangle, and all the articles, books, documen- taries, movies, and websites about it Figure 1. A Navy Avenger torpedo bomber. The pilot is Willard Stoll, one of the would never have been created. last men to talk with instructor-pilot Lt. Charles C. Taylor before Taylor left on The loss of the Avengers (Figure 1) ill-fated Flight 19 on December 5, 1945. Author Larry Kusche interviewed Stoll and the search plane was a legitimate, in his Michigan home. Stoll, the leader of Flight 18, heard Taylor on the radio confusing, national front-page mystery when he was in the northern Bahamas. He told Kusche that Taylor “couldn’t at the time it occurred. Years later, mag- have been too far away at the time.” azines and newspapers began to publi- cize it and other supposed mysteries in the area. UFOs were a new, popular, and exciting topic in the 1950s. Best-selling books such as Flying Saucers on the At- tack, The Case for the UFO, The Flying Saucer Conspiracy, Strange Mysteries of Time and Space, Stranger Than Science, and others speculated that Flight 19 had been captured by aliens from outer space. Early in the popular 1977 Spielberg movie Close Encounters of the Third Kind, the Avengers suddenly appeared in the Mojave Desert. Near the end, the aviators, who had not aged, walked out of a huge UFO.

30 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE MYSTERY DELUSION

The part of the Atlantic Ocean where [Mysteryans is my shortcut word to the Triangle, but the details of their Flight 19 disappeared became popular for those who contributed to the losses were often inaccurate. when it was given a clever, catchy name creation of the mystery.] Gaddis’s writings started the tsunami by Vincent H. Gaddis in his February Gaddis wrote: of Bermuda Triangle magazine and tab- 1964 article “The Deadly Bermuda Tri- loid articles, books, documentaries, mov- Draw a line from Florida to angle” in Argosy, a popular men’s pulp Bermuda, another from Bermuda ies, and the popular belief in unknown adventure and modest girlie magazine. to Puerto Rico, and a third line forces off the coast of the United States. A shortened version appeared in the back to Florida through the His account of Flight 19 was largely July/August 1964 Flying Saucer Review. Bahamas. Within this roughly based on the fictional quotations in the triangular area, known as the The Argosy article, with several ad- American Legion magazine article. “Bermuda Triangle,” most of ditions, then became Chapter 13, “The the total vanishments have Many of the later mysteryans ac- Triangle of Death,” in Gaddis’s 1965 occurred. Others have happened cepted Gaddis’s version and then em- book Invisible Horizons; True Mysteries in adjacent areas to the north bellished it with their own speculations of the Sea. In what is a rarity among and east in the Atlantic, south in rather than doing original research. Some the Caribbean, and west in the those who would later add to “the mys- added another alleged mystery or two. Gulf of Mexico. tery,” Gaddis listed the sources of infor- My source of information about Flight mation he used in the book: Gaddis did not define how far the 19 in Chapter 22 of The Bermuda Trian- “adjacent areas” extended, while add- Various newspaper articles. gle Mystery—Solved was the official Navy ing, “This relatively limited area is the report: “Board of Investigation into five The Books of . scene of disappearances that total far missing TBM airplanes and one PBM air- Sea’s Puzzles Still Baffle Men in beyond the laws of chance.” He gave no plane, convened by Naval Air Advanced Pushbutton Age. E.V.W. Jones, information as to what were the laws of Training Command, NAS Jacksonville, Associated Press, Sept. 16, chance, but it sounded scientific, as if Florida, 7 December 1945, and related 1950, was the first to mention the matter had been thoroughly studied. correspondence.” No one who had de- the region as a place of mysteri- Map 1 (based on my research) shows clared the loss of Flight 19 to be para- ous disappearances. the intended routes or known locations normal or UFO-related used the official Sea Mystery at Our Back Door, of some of the mysteries in the “adja- Navy report. George X. Sand, Fate Magazine, cent areas.” Many of the other alleged Oct. 1952, expanded on the “mysteries” did occur in or Jones article. closer The 1950s UFO bestsellers pre- viously listed.

The Mystery of the Lost Patrol, Allan W. Eckert, American Legion Magazine, April 1962, which included fictionalized, drama- tized messages that would be attributed to Flight 19 by many of the later mysteryans.

Map 1. Many of the “mysteries” attributed to the Triangle did not occur in or near it, as shown. Virtually all “mysteries” had solutions, or had no proof that they even occurred, when diligently researched and honestly reported. The numbers are chapters in the Solved book.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 31 When I first heard of the Bermuda Triangle in the articles, which I made available to the students. In early 1970s, I realized it was quickly gaining in pop- retrospect, those students and many others across ularity. There were several reasons for my interest. the country were a significant factor in the early growth First, it was an obviously unique and intriguing topic. of the Triangle story. Just as much false information Ships, planes, boats, and people were said to be dis- today is spread by the Internet and social media, back appearing off the coast of the United States! There then we knew that everything we found was not nec- were no survivors, no wreckage, no SOS, no clues. essarily accurate. Today I still get letters and emails I had always wanted to write a book, but because I from students who are writing papers, only now they was entering a new profession and had a young fam- also have my information to use. ily, there had never been a topic that so captured my It might not seem likely, but pilots and librarians interest that I was willing to embark on what would have an important common attribute. They absolutely obviously be a huge research project. hate to make a mistake, to be wrong. A librarian’s Second, I was an experienced pilot. By my early primary job is to help people find the information they twenties I was a commercial pilot, flight instructor, in- seek, which can often be complex and difficult. The strument pilot, instrument flight instructor, advanced inability to find accurate information is failure at the ground instructor, and flight engineer. I had logged job and embarrassing. several thousand flying hours, including more than If a pilot makes a mistake, he and others can end four thousand takeoffs and landings, much of it as up dead. I had known a few people who died in flying an instructor. accidents: A top-notch crop duster pilot for whom I was a loader while in high school. Two friends who learned to fly the same time as I did crashed on a small dirt runway on a sloping hillside that I often used. One of my high-school flying students died when his father Just as much false crashed his plane. I remain adamant about not mak- ing “misteaks” (a small tweak of humor here). information today is After deciding in the early 1970s to write a book about the Triangle, my research consisted of locating the earliest accounts of the mystery incidents in le- spread by the Internet gitimate sources rather than accepting the previous writers’ versions and speculations. Searching for the and social media, back mystery incidents was time-consuming, but many were listed in The New York Times and London Times then we knew that indexes. I located the articles on microfilm and had them printed. I also received information from Lloyd’s of London, the Navy, and the U.S. Coast Guard by U.S. everything we found was mail. Most of the older incidents had no such thing as an official report. not necessarily accurate. My experience as a pilot was invaluable when ana- lyzing many of the “mysteries.” One case that was re- ported in a best-selling Triangle mystery book showed the writer’s lack of flying knowledge. His story was Third, my second master’s degree was in library that a plane flying in the Bahamas had lost the use science. Back then I was working in the Reference of its hydraulic system, so the landing gear could not Department at Arizona State University’s Hayden Li- be lowered, but “the plane seemed to be landing as brary, where we were barraged by student requests for if buoyed up by a cushion of air.” Every pilot I tell this information about the Bermuda Triangle for the term story to laughs. Any student pilot with just a few flying papers they had to write. Librarians know how to do hours knows what the “mysterious force” is. Ground research, which in the 1970s was far more difficult effect is the increased lift and decreased aerodynamic than it is with the technologies that exist today. drag that a wing generates when it is close to the We could not find much about the Triangle, so I ground or water. It can cause an aircraft to float far placed an ad in several library journals and soon re- along the runway at a slowly deceasing airspeed be- ceived a large collection of magazine and newspaper fore it finally settles in.

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Another issue that confuses mysteryans is the dif- 1978. (The name was changed to Commemorative ference between true north and magnetic north. When Air Force in 2002.) I examined their huge single-en- I was flying in Arizona in the 1960s, the difference gine Avenger torpedo bomber on the ground, then (as was 12.5 degrees, and we had to adjust for it when a passenger) headed out over the Gulf of Mexico for navigating cross country. It changes minutely over the a loud, exciting, and informative ride. years as Earth’s magnetic pole slowly moves. The Two days later I rented a Cessna in Fort Lauder- difference is now 10.6 degrees. Mysteryans claim it dale (I was still an active pilot back then) and flew the is a problem in the Triangle because the difference intended route of Flight 19 to the Bahamas, landing there is near zero and that can confuse navigators, for fuel at Walker’s Cay, the chain’s northernmost causing them to get disoriented and disappear. Ac- island. I then flew back across the Gulf Stream and tually, navigation is simplified because adjusting for the Everglades to Key West, Florida, refueled a sec- zero is quite easy. Duh. ond time, then flew along the Florida Keys on the way My research showed that the mysteryans rarely back to Fort Lauderdale. mentioned anything that conflicted with their “mys- The reason for my seven-hour flight was to see tery,” especially hurricanes and other severe weather. what Charles Taylor had seen on his flight and what A well-known suicide that explained an abandoned he should have seen. Although the training group he boat found closer to the Azores than to Bermuda was was in charge of took off from Fort Lauderdale at ignored. See incident 46 on Map 1. Many “mystery” 2:10 in the afternoon and headed east toward the locations were thousands of miles away from reality. Bahamas, an hour and a half later he radioed that There was no credible evidence to support the oft he was sure he was in the Florida Keys, which are repeated tales of only a canary being found on board, southwest of Fort Lauderdale, virtually in the opposite or of still-warm meals on the table of an abandoned direction they had flown. Map 1 shows the Bahamas, ship. east of Florida, and the Florida Keys, west of southern In The Disappearance of Flight 19, published in Florida. 1980, I delved further into that case. After a lengthy “I don’t know where we search using the most advanced research methods are,” Taylor was heard to say of the time (library reference material, the U.S. mail, on the radio. “We must have and long-distance phone calls), I located the (now de- got lost after that last turn. ceased) sister and brother-in-law of Charles Carroll I’m sure I’m in the [Florida] Taylor, the instructor pilot of Flight 19. I stayed at Keys and I don’t know how to their home in Corpus Christi, Texas, several times in get to Fort Lauderdale.” the late 1970s as they introduced me to local peo- He said “both my com- ple who told me what they knew about Taylor. They passes are out.” Taylor did visited my Arizona home, loved my swimming pool, not know where he was, and became friends with my family, especially my late which direction he was fly- father. We visited the Grand Canyon. They loaned me ing, or which way to go. He a large collection of reports, papers, letters, photos, mistakenly identified him- and other correspondence that Taylor’s late mother self as MT-28, which meant and aunt had gathered. “Miami torpedo bomber.” An article in the Corpus Christi Caller included Tay- That revealed that, mentally, lor’s picture and an interview: “Lt. Charles C. Taylor is he was flying out of Miami; visiting his mother after 28 month’s service aboard a those flights were performed carrier in the South Pacific… He will report to the East in the Florida Keys, not the Coast for reassignment.” I located and interviewed Bahamas. His correct ID, ninety-two people who had known Taylor. Childhood FT-28, Fort Lauderdale tor- friends. Navy buddies and other personnel who were pedo bomber, was eventually Lt. Charles Taylor was the somehow involved in the events of December 5. The learned. instructor pilot of Flight radioman and gunner who had flown with him off the Dead reckoning naviga- 19, the five Avenger tor- carrier Hancock during the Pacific war. They told me tion, which Flight 19’s stu- pedo bombers from Fort he was an excellent pilot and the perfect southern dents were practicing, does Lauderdale Naval Air gentleman who was proud to be a U.S. Navy pilot. not use landmarks. It was Another part of my research was to visit the Con- used when flying over the Station that disappeared federate Air Force in Harlingen, Texas, on April 3, ocean, out of sight of land. on December 5, 1945.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 33 They fly in specific directions, according to their compass heading, for a specific length of time, based on the estimated wind direction and speed. Progress is marked on an erasable plotting board (see Figure 2). Taylor had extensive dead reckoning experience during his time in the Pacific war. Prior to flying combat in the Pacific, Taylor had been based in Miami for a year, flying patrol over the Florida Keys and the Gulf of Mexico, watching for German U-boats. After his combat time in the Pacific, he was again based in Miami as an instruc- tor. According to the information sent to me by the National Personnel Records Center, Taylor was “detached” to Fort Lauderdale on November 20, 1945, where the training flights went east to the Bahamas. Taylor reported for duty at Fort Lauder- dale the next day, along with hundreds of other of- ficers, student pilots, and enlisted airmen. He was flying again by December 1, but it is not known if he flew the Bahamas route before December 5. My conclusion, based on all my sources of information, is that this was his first time. On December 5, when Taylor called, he was confused because there are parts of the smaller islands of the northern Bahamas (where he actually Map 2. Flight 19’s 5:50 PM position fix was a circle of 100-mile was) that do look like some of the islands in the radius, several hundred miles north of where Flight 19 should have Florida Keys. I saw both areas on my flight to the turned west toward Fort Lauderdale. Bahamas and the Keys three decades after Tay- lor’s fatal flight. The official Navy report states that Taylor “allowed himself to be led to believe he was in a position in which he could not possibly have been.” Captain William O. Burch, commanding of- ficer of the Naval Air Station, told Taylor’s mother and aunt he thought Taylor had confused the string of cays north of the Bahamas with the keys south of Florida. Some of the writers and websites report that Taylor was confused because his compasses failed, and that is what caused Flight 19 to get lost and eventually disappear. That story, which has largely been accepted, has only added to the mys- tery. What kind of mysterious force, the mysteryans ask, would cause compasses to fail? What other disappearances has this strange force caused? After all, compasses, whether mechanical or fluid– filled, are known to be extremely trustworthy. Dis- trusting a compass could be a response for a pilot when the landmarks he sees do not tally with his compasses, especially after he has made some turns. A former Avenger instructor pilot told me Figure 2. Plotting board used by pilots when flying over water in the how easy it was for him to deliberately disorient a 1940s. They mark their estimated course based on the estimated pilot just by doing a few turns to see how quickly air speed and the estimated wind. A whole lot of estimating goes he could reorient himself. When I was a flight in- on when out of sight of land. (Photos courtesy Larry Kusche.) THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE MYSTERY DELUSION

structor, I discussed with my students the issue of “blind” broadcasts, hoping that someone in the flight absolutely trusting the compass before I signed for would hear it. The storm worsened after darkness fell; them to take their solo cross-country flights. they surely were flying on instruments in turbulent air. Shortly after takeoff from Fort Lauderdale, the An old cliché is that flying is 99 percent boredom planes of Flight 19 were to perform low-level bombing and 1 percent stark raving terror. I never did feel the practice runs at Hen and Chickens Shoals, fifty-six boredom part during my flying career, but on a flight miles east of the Naval Station. That would involve in northern Arizona in 1964 I had a scary hour-long turns and altitude changes, which can also be dis- experience in a Piper Comanche, concerned about if concerting, especially at diving speeds and higher g I would manage to survive. I was over a mountainous forces. area at 17,500 feet (the plane carried no oxygen), Believing he was in the Florida Keys where he had trying at full throttle and full cabin heat to outclimb previously spent many months flying, Taylor refused or outrace the dark thunderhead clouds that were to head west, as pilots had been instructed to do if rapidly developing below me as far as I could see. I they were lost or confused in the Bahamas. If he had was in serious trouble, but my anxiety and fear surely actually been in the Keys, as he mistakenly thought, flying west would have taken them into the huge Gulf of Mexico. He insisted on heading north because he was certain he was south of Florida. One of the stark truths of flying (and hiking) is that the longer a person Flight 19 continued to fly stays lost, the more confused and the more lost he becomes, which is even worse if night is approach- north from the Bahamas, ing. (At least a hiker can stop moving to try to get reoriented.) Flight 19 continued to fly north from the Baha- despite at least one of the mas, despite at least one of the pilots saying they should fly west. But Taylor’s order had to be obeyed; pilots saying they should fly he was the commanding officer. Port Everglades Air Sea Rescue Unit 7 heard several messages between west. But Taylor’s order had Taylor and the other pilots concerning their estimated position, their compasses, and which direction they should go. As best they could tell, no other plane ever to be obeyed; he was the assumed the lead. Navy personnel had no idea where Flight 19 was commanding officer. until 5:50 PM, a half hour after sunset, nearly four hours after takeoff. An approximate position fix based on some of their radio calls was calculated. Flight 19 was somewhere in a huge area, 200 to 400 miles were nothing compared to what the men of Flight north of the Bahamas and sixty to 260 miles north- 19 must have felt, knowing they were doomed to go east of Cape Canaveral! (See Map 2.) down in the cold, raging ocean in the darkness, with By that time, it had turned dark and stormier over no chance of survival. I survived by spotting a small the Atlantic. Fuel was running down and a strong wind break between the huge clouds, diving between them, was blowing out to sea. Turbulence, storm clouds, hoping the break would not close, hoping I would not and the setting sun made it even more desperate. crash into a peak, and then, miraculously, seeing an The only chance they had to survive was to immedi- abandoned strip on a hillside and making a safe land- ately turn west. ing. I spent the night at a nearby ranch. I played a lot But none of the Navy stations could contact the of pool. flight to let them know where they were and what to On December 6, 1945, the day after Flight 19’s do. Radio contact had faded as the planes moved disastrous flight, more than 200 planes and seven- farther away and the sun had set. The atmosphere teen ships from Florida and the Bahamas went out changes at night, drastically affecting radio reception: by dawn, braving high winds and heavy seas. Some static and background noise increases, as does in- small boats and their crews were rescued, but no terference from commercial radio stations, especially trace, no one from of Flight 19 could be found. the powerful music coming from Cuba. No one sent The Martin Mariner search plane that became a

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 35 part of the mystery was seen (from a search ship) Google search returns 3,650,000 entries for it; Flight to explode in the air on the night of December 5 19 shows 285,000,000; my name shows 11,000. at 7:50. Mariners were called “flying gas tanks” be- Some of the websites I perused show much of the cause they carried almost 2,000 gallons of fuel. The same old stuff: accepting the mystery stories, then next morning the ocean was so rough that not a trace listing various “theories” such as death rays from At- of the plane or its crew could be found, even though lantis, a drawing of a UFO over Columbus’s ship, and they knew where it had come down. One officer I in- so on. Some of the sites do present good informa- terviewed said that fumes were occasionally present tion; many refer to my two books. inside the plane, and that he, while on duty in Greece, The concept of mysterious disappearances has had seen a Mariner explode in the air. become part of the language. In baseball, a batted Taylor’s flying skills and combat experience surely ball that cannot be caught is said to have gone into were extensive and heroic during the war, but I did the Bermuda Triangle. It is where money that disap- interview two men who were with Taylor other times peared in the stock market went, and where anyone when he ditched. is who is lost is said to be. The disappearance of The first was his gunner, who told me “Taylor lost Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 in March 2014 in the his bearings” on June 14, 1944, near Trinidad. They Indian Ocean has been mentioned as a Bermuda Tri- ran out of gas, could not get the raft out before the angle–type situation, as expected. plane sank, and their depth charges blew up beneath The word solved in my title elicited comments from them, but they were quickly rescued. some who apparently believe that a solution had to The other ditch was January 30, 1945. After losing involve UFO captures, death rays, or some other mys- radio contact, Taylor couldn’t find Guam. He climbed tery solution. My solution is that the Bermuda Trian- so they could find him on radar. Almost out of gas, he gle is a fraud, a delusion, and that reality is far more ditched in a rough sea. He and his passenger spent a interesting than the phony stories. wet, cold, turbulent night in a raft and were saved late Someone wrote that I was a debunker, that my the next day. Photo 19 in the Flight 19 book shows purpose was to snitch on those who I claim got it Taylor in the raft, being rescued by the USS Bailey. wrong. That comment is also devoid of reality. When December 5, 1945, was the third time he got lost. I began my research, I had no idea how true or un- All these years after the publication of both books, true the mystery stories were. Early on, I hoped to I still get the question: “How did you solve the Ber- find that the mysteries were true, because I knew the muda Triangle mysteries?” The question I rarely get, first hardcover book on the market would be a huge which shows a more analytical mind, is: “Did the bestseller. I wanted mine to be the first! Then reality alleged disappearances actually occur the way the reared its head. Good, honest research, which takes mystery writers said they did?” The answer is no, they much more time than cobbling together “mysteries” did not. that previous writers have created, revealed that virtu- Map 1 shows the Triangle, a thousand miles on a ally every incident had been distorted to make it look side. While the mysteryans claim it is small and lim- mysterious. Thus, I did not get the pleasure of having ited, roughly half of the so-called unsolved mysteries the first hardcover book to be published. occurred far from the Triangle; thousands of miles At the end of The Bermuda Triangle Mystery— away in some cases. The numbers on Map 1 are the Solved, I stated that the Triangle was a “manufac- chapters in The Bermuda Triangle Mystery—Solved. tured” mystery. That was a polite way to say it was a “Research” by the mysteryans was so poor that one fraud. The “mystery” of the Bermuda Triangle is one ship that had been dismasted and lying on its side of the most widespread frauds that has ever been (obviously a storm victim) in the Pacific Ocean was perpetrated. It was based on poor research and dis- included as a Triangle mystery. torted, untrue, inaccurate information that was uncriti- Some occurred closer to Newfoundland and the cally copied, embellished, and sensationalized. route of the Titanic than to Bermuda. Many of the Does it matter if people believe that forces “be- “mysterious losses” occurred because of storms, yond the laws of science as we now know them” are even hurricanes that the mysteryans did not mention. capturing ships, boats, planes, and people, and that Today, the Bermuda Triangle is not the hot topic it scientists, the Coast Guard, Navy, Lloyd’s of London, was forty years ago, but it still gets plenty of interest. and other experts are said to be baffled by it all? The numbers vary considerably, but as I write this, a If those alleged unknown forces in the Triangle are

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Endorsements of Kusche’s only light entertainment for the masses, does it matter Decisive Investigation that some people believe in them? So what if they believe in UFO captures, psychic powers, , ancient as- Editor’s note: Prominent scientists, skeptics, tronauts, and ads to lose thirty pounds by the end of the naval experts, and historians endorsed Larry month? What is the harm in it? Few of us will ever be af- Kusche’s 1975 book The Bermuda Triangle fected by whether there are unknown forces in the Triangle Mystery—Solved. Here are some of those com- or anywhere else. ments: Actually, there is an issue of greater importance than CARL SAGAN, Astronomer: Your book is a wel- whether “paranormal forces” are at work anywhere. In this come alternative to the standard credulous age of information explosion and social media, it is worri- and uncritical works on the subject. some that so many people believe so many things without requiring any supporting evidence, that they employ little ISAAC ASIMOV, Scientist, Author: Reading it was skepticism, have such a lack of curiosity, and such a bias like drinking a glass of sparkling spring water after being offered nothing but mud. toward what they want to be true, that they ignore what is true. T. M. DINAN, Lloyd’s of London: This book is Once false information becomes “common knowledge,” essential reading, for here the mystery is no matter how thoroughly it might be shown to be false, the solved. false version will continue to be believed by some, either ADMIRAL O.W. SILER, Commanding Officer, U.S. because they remain uninformed about the correct informa- Coast Guard: Your position is wholeheartedly tion or because they refuse to accept any information that endorsed by the Coast Guard. is contrary to the beliefs they hold. The need for skepticism, for paying close attention to WALTER SULLIVAN, Science Editor, New York detail, is of critical importance in everyday life. A healthy Times: Thank goodness there are a few ratio- dose of skepticism might have saved billions of dollars nal human beings dealing with this subject. from disappearing during the dot com debacle in the early MARTIN GARDNER, Scientific American: Kusche’s 2000s and the financial meltdown in 2008. It would have research is impeccable, his arguments un- kept millions of dollars from vanishing during the more re- answerable. His solution will convince every- cent Ponzi schemes. body except those simple-minded believers Skepticism and critical thinking are important in politics who refuse to listen to anyone except the when voters let their emotions rule rather than becoming hucksters of irrationality. . . . I agree with him totally. informed on the positions of the candidates. It is important in issues of health, such as the vaccination/autism con- JAMES RANDI: Congratulations on the quite excel- troversy, which is resulting in diseases that were virtually lent job you’ve done to bring some rationality wiped out to start coming back. It is important in the discus- to the very aggravating Bermuda Triangle sion of the use of genetically modified food and the global “mystery.” warming situation. PHILIP J. KLASS, Author of UFOs Explained: The Skepticism. Critical thinking. Honesty. I book should resolve all doubts.

Larry Kusche is the author The Bermuda J. ALLEN HYNEK, Director of the Center for UFO Triangle Mystery—Solved (1975) and Studies: Head and shoulders above what The Disappearance of Flight 19 (1980). else has been written. It is bound to clarify The books set high standards for investi- matters for all people who think. gative research and reporting on popular SAMUEL ELIOT MORISON, naval historian: Anyone subjects. They demonstrate the need who has been bemused by the Bermuda Tri- for critical thinking and being a skeptic. angle literature, which mostly belongs in the He has been a commercial pilot/flight in- categories of myth and fable, should read structor and a technical writer, and he was a founding CSICOP Mr. Kusche’s book. You will find there an ob- fellow. His first novel, Return to Marble Canyon, will soon be jective estimate of all the alleged mysteries published. He has lived in the Phoenix area since the second of the alleged triangle, and learn that most of them can easily be explained by natural grade (1947). causes.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 37 Through Me, the Universe: A Stroll through the Curious Solipsism of Biocentrism The odd and self-centered biocentrism movement believes the universe is created by consciousness and we are central to it.

DALE DE BAKCSY

f you have religious friends of a scientific bent and you scientifically respectable weapon with which to hack a path back to the six- are on Facebook, then you’ve probably been subjected teenth century using the tools of the Ito the phenomenon that has freely labeled itself biocen- twenty-first. trism. Biocentrists believe that the universe is created by It is, in every way, an odd book. It veers into long stretches of desperate, consciousness and that almost every unknown in current self-congratulatory autobiography that science can be adjudicated by an appeal to the role liv- emerge from nowhere and terminate having done nothing in particular. It ing beings have in forging the cosmos with their minds. throws up walls of Wikipedia facts They couch these beliefs in quantum physics and, unlike where they are totally unnecessary and more blatant New Age appropriations, the science is good offers no details where they would be crucial to establishing his ideas or dis- enough to deserve a thorough looking over. crediting his legion of imagined rivals. It has a thoroughly extraneous chap- For people frustrated with the fact that science has not yet explained ev- ter about science-fiction films that erything, it offers ready answers. And somehow meanders into the plot of for a biological community tired of Peggy Sue Got Married before limping physics being the arbiter of the uni- back into the vague fog from whence verse’s secrets, it’s a chance at the big it came. At one point, and I am not leagues. The movement began with making this up, it claims that Einstein the work of Robert Lanza, a medical would have been a more impressive doctor taken with the idea that biology physicist if only he thought more like creates reality. In 2010 he published Dr. Robert Lanza. Biocentrism: How Life and Consciousness It is an odd book. Are the Key to Understanding the True And yet, for a whole movement of Nature of the Universe with astronomer people who want to see the afterlife Bob Berman, and it has since become vindicated by science, and anthropo- the key text for a movement seeking a centrism reestablished as the central

38 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer principle of scientific investigation, it remains foundational. , ever willing to grind the organ for any ailing monkey with half Deepak Chopra, ever willing to grind the a step of metaphysical dance left in it, hailed his work as “original and excit- organ for any ailing monkey with half a step ing,” and it has spawned an impres- of metaphysical dance left in it, hailed sive array of amateur imitators, a fact all the more remarkable considering Robert Lanza’s work as “original and exciting.” that Biocentrism doesn’t really prove anything. It shows a number of things, concludes a number of others, and then leaves the connecting tissue between the two largely to the imagination, as bows are an ordered array of photon “What we perceive as reality is a pro- we’ll see. Its argumentative structure wavelengths produced by the graded cess that involves our consciousness.” is loose enough that it has allowed bending of light inside of a rain drop- A redundancy in vocabulary has be- multiple groups—Catholics and New let. The word rainbow is also used to come a principle of reality creation. Agers and disgruntled biologists—to describe the visual experience that is Now, there is something like sci- claim it authentically as their own our mind’s interpretation of that or- ence to be had here. It is true that with success following in that some- dered array of photons. Clearly, that particles such as photons exist as a su- what muddled wake. interpretation doesn’t exist outside of perposed set of states that break down The method of biocentrism is rel- our heads (everybody “sees” a slightly to a single state (or appear to if you atively simple. Take a scientific con- different rainbow). We are necessary hold with decoherence theory) under cept, conflate the terms used to explain for the rainbow-as-interpretation, but various circumstances. The problem the physical nature of that concept Lanza latches onto the repetitious is that Lanza continuously refuses to and how we interpret that nature, and terminology to conclude, “We are acknowledge the “various” part of that somewhere in the haze, slip the word absolutely necessary for the rainbow’s statement. He speaks nowhere about “consciousness” into the inevitable existence. When nobody’s there, there the space between sensory mechanism resulting maxim. For example, rain- simply is no rainbow.” And as such, and conscious processing, for the very

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 39 good reason that superposition, which maintain itself until the mind resolves drum and then jumps to the unavoid- Lanza needs in order to even begin it into a single reality, focus on the able Double Slit Experiment. talking about the role of consciousness purely mechanical means of pre-con- Abuse of the Double Slit Experi- in the universe, tends to get crushed scious state collapse is something of a ment is almost de rigeur in these sorts in that space. As Yale physicist Abner death blow, and one that Lanza and of books, and Lanza has nothing new Shimony has pointed out in the case biocentrism generally, and palpably, to offer except odd discourses about of visual events, a photon has got to have not engaged with. experiments where atoms prodded by lasers are not allowed to change en- ergy states, an interesting result that “Reality is a process that involves our he ultimately ascribes to the minds of the observers and not, you know, consciousness” is the First Principle of the laser. Clearly, if every person in the room had died at the moment the biocentrism, and it is arrived at by a brazen experiment was turned on, the atoms but adorable attempt to pass off an would have absolutely changed their energy states (except that, under bio- imprecision in language usage as a basic centrism, nobody ever dies; more on that presently). quality of the universe. Further, under biocentric explana- tions, time doesn’t exist and neither does space. The argument for the for- jump through a lot of hurdles before “Reality is a process that involves mer is that the only reason we really even getting to our retinal photo- our consciousness” is the First Prin- believe that time exists is because of receptors—each of which is enough to ciple of biocentrism, and it is arrived entropy, but that entropy is really just throttle superposed states into single at by a brazen but adorable attempt a habit of thinking, a way of describ- outcomes—and that’s before we even to pass off an imprecision in language ing order and disorder that is preju- get to the massive issue of the absorp- usage as a basic quality of the universe diced toward certain results out of tion of that photon by rhodopsin, an and a willful dismissal of the brute mere habit. This is an excellent point event that triggers a macromolecular mechanisms of information collec- if by entropy we mean the definition cis-trans realignment and decisively tion. The pattern once established, given in the average middle school physical science textbook. But entropy suppresses any lingering superposition Lanza bravely sticks with it. He runs is a mathematically measurable quan- far before any conscious processing through—in precisely the same fash- tity, one without which you cannot has happened. For an argument that ion, in precisely the same order—the predict the free energy and therefore relies on probabilistic superposition to classic Tree Falling in a Forest conun- spontaneity of reactions. It is most decidedly not merely “our own minds’ way of perceiving patterns and order” any more than specific heat or aver- age kinetic energy, and to rely on that blithe sweeping away of a necessary physical quantity via a crude caricature in order to unseat the reality of time is to build a castle on swampland. There’s a Goldilocks argument obliquely thrown in for good measure, and objections of long standing aren’t remotely addressed. A lot of things had to go right for us to be here, just as a lot of things had to be right for as- teroids and interstellar gas to be here. Yet nobody is calling the universe as- teroid- or gas-centric, in spite of the fact that it is overwhelmingly better at making them than it is at making us. The Willy Wonka factory produces Nerds Ropes, but it also produces many other candies, and though the

40 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Nerds Ropes may be the most com- And it is at this point that things therefore not possibly fundamental plicated candy that factory makes, it is go from a misguided but intriguing mathematics (Lanza’s scorn for string rather arrogant of them to claim that romp to an out-and-out farce, as theory is oddly bitter), founded on they, and they alone, are the reason biocentrism holds some set opinions a book that wafts mightily between that factory exists and that, further, it about the consequences of its “mind difficult to read self-aggrandizement is only by virtue of their perception of creates reality” mantra that run histri- and scientific over-simplification (the the other candies that those candies onically off the rails. Since we create account of Heisenberg’s Uncertainty exist. reality, time, and space by observing Principle as a battle between our This brings us to the fatal insuf- them with our conscious minds, the “inner” and “outer” worlds is partic- ficiency with biocentrism as it has idea of there being something before ularly priceless). It aims for Feynman been laid out in Lanza’s book and or after us is absurd, and therefore, and settles for Chopra, and the thud I subsequently: the movement’s un- Lanza holds, we cannot die. In what is palpable. willingness to grapple with the yawn- is a perhaps not entirely rigorous Further Reading ing chasm between measurement and statement, he offers, “The mathemat- consciousness. Measurement of a sys- ical possibility of your consciousness Though Lanza’s Biocentrism is the core text of the movement, its uncomfortable thrusts tem undoubtedly changes it, but it is a ending is zero.” You will stay con- into autobiography make it hard to see the linguistic sleight of hand to say that, scious and connected to everything, scientific ideas as anything but the result of a therefore, consciousness changes the forever, the culminating moment of particular individual’s broken psychology. To evaluate the ideas more objectively, try Lanza’s universe. If you are a quantum object a philosophy that, more than once, follow-up book, Rethinking Immortality, or represented by the superposition of relies on, “It just doesn’t feel right for Lothar Schäfer’s Infinite Potential, which many possible states, there are many this not to be true” as its central mo- touches on many of the same points (and features an introduction by—you guessed it— things that can force you into one tivating device. Deepak Chopra). On the web, biocentricity. single and measurable state. Photons Biocentrism is an impatience net does its level best to carry the standard do it. Thermodynamic interaction wrapped in a series of linguistic feints and address the holes in biocentrism that can be plausibly answered, while still staying with the environment can do it. La- dusted with a fine layer of interesting well clear of anything really damning to the sers can do it. Determining one half quantum results. Answers aren’t com- movement. of a conserved quantity in an entan- ing fast enough, and the ones that gled pair of particles can do it. None are coming are not those we want. of those things require consciousness, We feel like love is inexplicable, and Dale DeBakcsy holds and nowhere does Lanza successfully therefore it must be. It sure seems like graduate degrees in indicate that the mind of the person vagueness in our neural interpreta- mathematics and in the room with an experiment is tion of an event ought to correspond intellectual history a contributing factor to the prob- to and infect the causes of that neu- and has been a ability-collapsing outcome of that ral event, and therefore it does. We physics and calcu- experiment. Rather, we are treated would really rather not die, and there- lus teacher since to a series of standard experiments, fore we don’t. As philosophy, it can’t 2003. His most recent SI articles are shown how measurement and inter- find its way out of Kant; as science, it “In Defense of Useless Math” (January/ action seem to matter, and then find, pays too little heed to the interactions February 2015) and “Stop Heisenberg from nowhere, the word consciousness of particles with non-mental envi- Abuse!” (May/June 2014). His science slipped in at the chapter summary, as ronments. It is a movement that ac- and culture blog can be found at www. if it had been there all along. cepts gut feeling over “complex” and countdolby.com.

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Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 41 The Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming In 2013–2014, only four of 69,604 publishing climate scientists rejected anthropogenic global warming. The consensus on anthropogenic global warming is not 97 percent, as is widely claimed; it is above 99.9 percent.

JAMES LAWRENCE POWELL

n May 16, 2013, President Obama tweeted that Cook et al. used the Web of Science science-citation research site to review “Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate the titles and abstracts of peer-re- Ochange is real, man-made and dangerous.” The Pres- viewed articles from 1991–2011 with the keywords “global climate change” ident is one of countless people who have come to believe and “global warming.” They classified that there is a “97% consensus” on anthropogenic global the articles into seven categories from warming (AGW). “(1) Explicit endorsement with quanti- fication” to “(7) Explicit rejection with Since it is inconceivable that any quantification.” In the middle was “(4) climate scientist today could have no No position.” opinion on the subject, if 97 percent The sine qua non of the Cook et al. accept AGW it follows that 3 percent method is the assumption that pub- reject it. To those outside of science, 3 lishing scientists who accept a theory percent may seem an insignificant per- will say so—they will “endorse” it in centage. However, we scientists know the title or abstract. To count an arti- that a small minority has often turned cle as part of the consensus, Cook et out to be right, otherwise there would al. required that it “address or mention have been no scientific revolutions. In ticle in Environmental Research Letters the cause of global warming.” Of the the 1950s, for example, the percentage by Cook et al. titled “Quantifying the 11,944 articles that came up in their of American geologists who accepted Consensus on Anthropogenic Global search, 7,970—two thirds—did not. continental drift was likely less than 3 Warming in the Scientific Literature.” Cook et al. classified those articles as percent. Yet they were right. They reported that “Among abstracts taking no position and thus ruled them If there were a 3 percent minority expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% out of the consensus. on AGW it would matter, but there is endorsed the consensus position that Do we need to know any more to not. The “97% consensus” is false. The humans are causing global warming” realize that there is something wrong percentage of publishing climate scien- (emphasis added). The 97 percent fig- with the Cook et al. method? The con- tists who accept AGW is at least 99.9 ure went viral and, not surprisingly, the sensus is what the majority accept; you percent and may verge on unanimity. qualifying phrase “expressing a posi- cannot rule out a two-thirds majority How, then, has nearly everyone tion”—the fine print, if you will—got and still derive the consensus. from President Obama on down come dropped. But those three words expose Moreover, is it true that scientists to buy the claim of a 97 percent consen- the false assumption inherent in the routinely endorse the ruling paradigm sus? The figure comes from a 2013 ar- Cook et al. methodology. of their discipline? To find out, I used

42 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer the Web of Science to review articles in three fields: plate tectonics, the origin of lunar craters, and evolution. Of 500 recent articles on “plate tec- tonics,” none in my opinion endorsed the theory directly or explicitly. Nor The consensus is what the majority accept; did a single article reject plate tecton- ics. This statement was about as close you cannot rule out a two-thirds majority to an endorsement as any came: “Plate tectonics, which shapes the surface of and still derive the consensus. the Earth, is the result of solid-state convection in Earth’s mantle over bil- lions of years.” What of lunar craters? As recently as 1964, nearly every scientist who had studied the moon believed that its cra- ters were volcanic. Then in July of that teorite impact, nor did any reject it. The seeing, in the concept of ‘descent with year, the first successful Ranger mission closest any came to an endorsement modification,’ a framework naturally returned thousands of photographs may be this sentence: “It is known that able to incorporate both adaptation and showing that the moon exhibits craters most of the craters on the surface of the constraint.” ranging in size from the colossal to the Moon were created by the collision of Are the sentences quoted in the microscopic. Except for a few senior minor bodies of the Solar System.” three preceding paragraphs endorse- holdouts, scientists quickly embraced Do biologists writing about evolu- ments or simple statements of fact? the meteorite impact theory. A Web of tion routinely endorse Darwin’s theory? To calculate their 97.1 percent re- Science search for “lunar craters” today I reviewed the abstracts of articles in sult, the Cook et al. study divided the turns up 185 articles stretching back to the Journal of Evolutionary Biology from number of abstracts that they said en- 1920 (including an overlooked 1921 2000 through 2014. Of 303 articles, dorsed AGW (3,896, including 2,909 article by Alfred Wegener that showed 261 had abstracts. Not surprisingly, “implicit” endorsements) by the total convincingly that the craters are due to none of the 261 rejected the modern that expressed a position (4,014, which meteorite impact). I reviewed the ab- evolutionary synthesis; neither did any included the rejecting articles.) Would stracts of the most recent 100 articles, endorse it. The closest any came may the method work for plate tectonics, which go back to 1997. As with plate have been this statement: “A long line the origin of lunar craters, and evolu- tectonics, none explicitly endorsed me- of biologists have followed [Darwin] in tion? Since none of the authors of the

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 43 articles I reviewed in those fields reject gauging how strong it is, reporting a is represented in four. But Hansen does the theory in question and only a hand- temperature rise of 3 ± 1°C for dou- not have four different opinions about ful, if that, could be said to directly en- bled CO2. The abstract included this AGW—he has only one opinion, and dorse it, the Cook et al. method would sentence: “Observed global warming we know very well what it is. His ar- wind up classifying the vast majority as of approximately 0.5°C in the past 140 ticles may use different language ac- taking no position and omit them from years is consistent with anthropogenic cording to what he and his colleagues the calculation. We would be left divid- greenhouse gases being the dominant happen to be writing about, i.e., they may seem to “endorse” AGW or not, but these are distinctions without a dif- ference. The Cook et al. classification is not about Hansen’s core belief but about the subject of his articles. Hansen had a total of six articles in Cook et al.’s “no position” category. A number of other prominent climate sci- We know from the history of science that entists show up there as well. These in- the most important advances come when clude (with the number of articles): R. Bradley (3), K. Briffa (2), E. Cook (5), stubborn facts overthrow the ruling paradigm. M. Hughes (2), P. Jones (3), T. Karl (5), M. Mann (2), M. Oppenheimer This is how scientific reputations are made. (3), B. Santer (2), G. Schmidt (3), the late S. Schneider (3), S. Solomon (5), K. Trenberth (7), and T. Wigley (3). Cook et al. ruled them all out of the consensus calculation. Most of these authors, like Hansen, also have articles in one or more of the three endorsing categories. Again, we see that the Cook et al. method is about language and the ing a tiny number of perceived implicit climate-forcing in that period.” The subject of articles rather than whether endorsements, a highly subjective mea- sentence is evidently why Cook et al. their authors accept AGW. sure, by the same tiny number and wind classified this article in category 1: “ex- up with 100 percent, after having ruled plicit endorsement with quantification.” * * * out nearly all the scientific literature. Hansen et al.’s 1992 article “Poten- We might be left dividing zero by zero. tial Climate Impact of Mount Pina- If scientists do not endorse the ruling tubo Eruption” considered the effect of paradigm, can we still quantify the * * * aerosols on global climate, successfully extent of a scientific consensus? Yes, predicting that the injection of sulfur we can. Remember that to count an article aerosols during the 1991 Mount Pina- The articles that turned up in the as endorsing, the Cook et al. study tubo eruption would temporarily lower Cook et al. search were not drawn at required that it “address or mention the global temperature. However, in this random but appeared because they an- cause of global warming.” Climate sci- article Hansen and colleagues were re- swered the search topics “global warm- entists refer to this as attribution. Some searching the role of a natural event— ing” or “global climate change.” The climate articles are about attribution volcanic eruptions—rather than the authors in the Cook et al. database were but many are not. Consider these two human contribution to global warming. writing about AGW. Would they have examples. Because of that their abstract did not written about a theory that they believe In 1993, James Hansen and his col- “endorse the consensus position that is false yet never say so? leagues published an article in Research humans are causing global warming,” We can get a further clue using the & Exploration titled “How Sensitive as Cook et al. required. The Cook et research category classification that Is the World’s Climate?” The purpose al. study classified Hansen et al.’s 1992 Cook et al. provided. Of the 7,970 “no of the research was to “estimate cli- article as taking no position and ruled it position” articles, 56.8 percent were on mate sensitivity from observed climate out of the consensus calculation. the impacts of global warming, 18.4 change.” In other words, not only did James Hansen also had articles in percent on mitigation, 17.1 percent on Hansen et al. accept AGW, they were the three endorsing categories and thus measurements and modeling methods,

44 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer and 7.7 percent on paleoclimatology. I used the Web of Science to review The consensus on anthropogenic Would authors write about those as- the titles and abstracts of peer-reviewed global warming is not 97 percent. In- pects of global warming if they believed articles from 2013 and 2014, adding the stead, publishing scientists are close to that AGW is false yet never say so? search topic “climate change” to “global unanimous that “global warming is real, What would be the point? climate change” and “global warming.” man-made, and dangerous,” as Presi- I We know from the history of sci- Of 24,210 abstracts, only five—one in dent Obama put it. ence that the most important advances 4,842 or 0.021 percent—in my judg- come when stubborn facts overthrow ment explicitly rejected AGW. Two of Note the ruling paradigm. This is how sci- the articles had the same author, so four I have a paper under review in Environmental entific reputations are made. It is why authors of 69,406 rejected AGW. That Research Letters in which I critique the Cook et al. paper. See jamespowell.org and please leave we remember Alfred Wegener and not is one in 17,352, or 0.0058 percent. comments in the forum. his opponents. A scientist who has ev- This result would allow the claim idence that AGW is false will be eager that 99.99 percent of scientists pub- James Lawrence to say so and to present that evidence. lishing today accept AGW. To be Powell is author of Who among us would not love to be conservative, I prefer to say above 99.9 Four Revolutions in that scientist! percent. the Earth Sciences Putting all this together, I argue that Excluding self-citations, only one of (reviewed in our May/ we can judge the extent of the consen- the five rejecting articles has been cited June 2015 issue) sus by the number of articles that ex- and that article only once. and The Inquisition of plicitly reject AGW. Cook et al. found Remember that the 99.9 percent Climate Science. He is executive director of seventy-eight, 0.7 percent, that did so. figure does not represent what we usu- the National Physical Science Consortium. From that one can infer that the au- ally mean by consensus: agreement of He has been president of three colleges and thors of 99.3 percent of the articles in opinion. Rather it is derived from the of the Franklin Institute and the Los Angeles the Cook et al. database accept AGW. peer-reviewed literature and thus re- County Museum of Natural History. He is also This would be the average over the flects the evidence therein. It tells us twenty years of their survey. More re- that there is virtually no publishable a former member of the National Science cently, the percentage of acceptance has evidence against AGW. That is why Board and a newly elected fellow of the Com- grown even higher. scientists accept the theory. mittee for Skeptical Inquiry.

For in-depth interviews with the most fascinating minds in science, religion, and politics, join Point of Inquiry cohosts Lindsay Beyerstein and Josh Zepps at pointofinquiry.org. JOSH ZEPPS LINDSAY BEYERSTEIN

Josh Zepps (cohost) is a new media Lindsay Beyerstein (cohost) is an pioneer; a journalist serving as a found- award-winning investigative journalist ing host and producer at the online talk and staff writer for In These Times. Her network HuffPost Live, following hosting work has appeared in places such as stints with such outlets as Bloomberg The New Republic, Reuters, Slate, Salon, TV, the Discovery Channel, and as an an- Ms. Magazine, and The New York Press. chor for CBS’s Peabody Award-winning Wait to see what stories she tells with Channel One News. her guests on Point of Inquiry.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 45 We Are All GMOs Implications of New Research on Horizontal Gene Transfer Increasing evidence that gene transfer across huge evolutionary distances is common in animals, including humans, provides a strong retort to the claim that GMOs are “unnatural.”

MATAN SHELOMI

umans have been modifying the genomes of plants eukaryotes (Reece et al. 2012; Morris et al. 2013). Even when HGT among and animals for millennia with techniques ranging eukaryotes is noted, the emphasis is Hfrom cross-breeding to irradiation. But these meth- still on unicellular organisms (Fitz- patrick 2012). The assumption is that ods and their products do not seem to raise the same level the evolution of separate, distinct sex of public outcry as transgenesis, which is the ability to di- cells in multicellular life posed unam- rectly move genes between organisms without sexual re- biguous restrictions on HGT (Doolit- tle 2000). Both laypersons and many production. An explanation for the unequal opposition to scientists thus believe that the sharing such genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is the idea of genes over large phylogenetic dis- tances, especially between animals, is that transgenesis is more “unnatural” (Pivetti 2007). Splic- rare or even impossible and that HGT ing genes from a flounder into a tomato (Hightower et al. is purely in the domain of unicellular 1991) or from a bacterium into rice (Tang et al. 2015) is life. Since genetic engineering is arti- ficial HGT between two organisms of seen as posing unspecified risks beyond those of conven- seemingly any evolutionary distance, tional breeding because, while plant and even some animal it is accordingly seen as an unnatural violation of these laws: the creation of hybrids exist in nature (Zhang et al. 2014), cross-kingdom something that could not arise natu- hybrids do not. Surveys suggest the ing is taught to generally fail or pro- rally even in theory. more “dissimilar” the organisms whose duce infertile hybrids such as mules; Yet what if these basic premises genes are being shared (Dragojlovic among plants, it only works for closely are wrong? Analyses of the ever-ris- and Einsiedel 2013), and the more ar- related organisms (Morris et al. 2013). ing number of published genomes tificial the methods used to move the Horizontal gene transfer (HGT), or and transcriptomes for multicellular genes (Kronberger et al. 2014), the the natural movement of genes from life have revealed unexpected num- more unnatural the food will appear one organism to another without sex- bers of functional genes whose sud- and the more reluctant consumers will ual reproduction (sound familiar?), is den appearance in a clade (a group of be to eat it, especially if one of the taught as being “rare among eukary- organisms assumed to share a com- organisms is an animal (Frewer et al. otes [animals, plants, fungi, and pro- mon ancestor) suggests they jumped 2013). tists] but common among bacteria” across great phylogenetic distances Some of this fear is supported by (Alberts et al. 2013). When HGT rather than evolving from a common concepts taught in secondary school– between domains of life is taught, it ancestor: in other words, HGT. Each and college-level biology textbooks is often limited to the ancient, one- new genome can be a source and/or (Zeigler 2011; Alberts et al. 2013). time transfers of mitochondrial and recipient of new genes, meaning the Among animals, cross-species breed- chloroplast genes from bacteria to accuracy and power of HGT searches

46 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer improves with each new sequenced Consider Bt crops, in which an family and phylogenetic distance to organism (Paganini et al. 2012; Boto insecticidal gene from the bacterium the ones involved in golden rice (Tang 2014). This growing body of research Bacillus thuringiensis is inserted into et al. 2015). Finally, while Flavr Savr’s suggests horizontal gene transfer plant genomes (Vaeck et al. 1987); or production involved only one species, across domains is far more common golden rice, which contains bacterial natural HGTs of polygalacturonases than previously thought, including in (Erwinia uredovoia) and daffodil genes were recently documented between metazoans (Dunning Hotopp 2011; for beta-carotene (Tang et al. 2015). highly dissimilar organisms, such as Syvanen 2012; Schönknecht et al. Consider also the first GMO sold for transfer from fungi to beetles (Kirsch 2014), where HGT’s prevalence in human consumption, the Flavr Savr et al. 2014) and proteobacteria to stick vertebrates and invertebrates does not tomato, created by inserting a dupli- insects (Shelomi et al. 2014). In other differ significantly (Crisp et al. 2015). cate but antisense copy of the toma- words, while the techniques that cre- The suggestion is that HGTs may be to’s own polygalacturonase enzyme ated the aforementioned GMOs were ubiquitous rather than uncommon in (technically making it cisgenesis not artificial, fully natural versions of all forms of life, even animals. transgenesis) into the genome to im- these mechanisms exist, and trans- Yes, animals includes us: you, prove shelf life (Bruening and Lyons genic events covering similar genes me, and the heads of Monsanto and 2000). These varieties have been ex- over similar or greater evolutionary Greenpeace alike. A study published tensively and successfully tested for distances have already happened. The this March conservatively estimated that primates have on average thir- ty-two foreign genes per species (there are thirty-nine in humans), with max- imum estimates up to 109 in primates Within our DNA are genes we did not inherit and 145 in humans from sources in- cluding plants, fungi, protists, bacte- but that were acquired laterally from ria, archaea, and even viruses (Crisp et al. 2015). These jumped genes may organisms across vast distances of even have shaped our own evolution: evolutionary space. We are transgenic the ABO-blood group system in hu- mans is hypothesized to have been organisms—and everything else might be too. acquired horizontally (Brew et al. 2010), along with some fat mass and obesity-associated proteins found only in humans and algae (Robbens et al. 2008). Within our DNA are genes we did not inherit but that were acquired safety (Potrykus 2012; Helassa et al. trait transfers induced in many GM laterally from organisms across vast 2013; Naranjo 2014), yet their in vitro crops could theoretically arise without distances of evolutionary space. We origin still repels would-be consumers any human intervention at all. are transgenic organisms—and every- (Knight 2009), with Flavr Savr even- One important caveat is that natu- thing else might be too. tually declared a commercial failure ral HGT events in eukaryotes mostly Thus the idea still taught in text- (Bruening and Lyons 2000). We now still involve microbes or at least fungi. books—that HGTs almost never know, however, that the HGTs re- HGT between two animals is rare happen in multicellular life—is a mis- sponsible for these lab-created strains (for now) and requires organisms be conception. HGTs’ perceived higher could just as easily have occurred in in close contact with each other. An prevalence in microbes may have been nature. B. thuringensis is a widespread example is the transfer of insect genes an artifact of the greater number of microbe found on plant leaf surfaces to bats either from respective para- sequenced microbial genomes: an (de Maagd 2015). Given the associ- site-host or prey-predator interactions error that is rapidly being corrected ation of symbioses with HGT events (Tang et al. 2015). Thus, even though (Keeling and Palmer 2008; Boto (Dunning Hotopp et al. 2007), B. the evolutionary distance involved 2014). Acceptance among scientists thuringiensis genes could theoretically need no longer be seen as a problem, that cross-domain and animal HGT have transferred into a plant on their an arctic flounder to tomato HGT in is a natural process “both ancient and own given enough time and oppor- nature remains highly unlikely given ongoing” (Crisp et al. 2015) will not tunities. One of the first discovered the ecological distance between the two only broaden studies into the field, but animal HGTs was of a carotenoid (Hightower et al. 1991). This does not it also conveniently erodes the foun- biosynthesis gene transferred from change the basic facts about GMO dation of the argumentum ad naturum fungi to pea aphids (Moran and Jarvik safety, though it will surely be a point against GMOs. 2010), a similar HGT in terms of gene anti-GMO activists seize upon.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 47 When seen as HGTs, GMOs re- Dunning Hotopp, J.C. 2011. Horizontal gene Rocha, et al. 2012. Contribution of lateral transfer between bacteria and animals. gene transfers to the genome composition cover much of the “naturalness” de- Trends in Genetics 27(4): 157–63. and parasitic ability of root-knot nematodes. nied to them by their opponents, and Dunning Hotopp, J.C., M.E. Clark, D.C. PloS One 7(11): e50875. a key (though by no means sole or Oliveira, et al. 2007. Widespread lateral Pivetti, Monica. 2007. Natural and unnatural: gene transfer from intracellular bacteria to Activists’ representations of animal bio- largest) motivator to anti-GMO fear multicellular eukaryotes. Science 317(5845): technology. New Genetics and Society 26(2): is weakened. Experimental evidence 1753–6. 137–57. suggests increasing public knowledge Fitzpatrick, David A. 2012. Horizontal gene Potrykus, Ingo. 2012. “Golden rice,” a GMO- transfer in fungi. FEMS Microbiology Letters product for public good, and the conse- of biological facts reduces the role of 329(1): 1–8. quences of GE-regulation. Journal of Plant subjective perceptions of naturalness Frewer, Lynn J., Ivo A. van der Lans, Arnout Biochemistry and Biotechnology 21(1): 68–75. in public approval of GMOs, chang- R.H. Fischer, et al. 2013. Public perceptions Reece, Jane B., Martha R. Taylor, Eric Jeffrey of agri-food applications of genetic modifi- Simon, et al. 2012. Campbell Biology: ing the discussion toward one about cation—a systematic review and meta-anal- Concepts & Connections. San Francisco: quantitative risk and benefit assess- ysis. Trends in Food Science & Technology Benjamin Cummings. ments (Mielby et al. 2012), at which 30(2): 142–52. Robbens, S., P. Rouze, J.M. Cock, et al. 2008. Helassa, Nordine, Hervé Quiquampoix, and point one can bring up the large and The FTO gene, implicated in human obe- Siobhán Staunton. 2013. Structure, bio- sity, is found only in vertebrates and marine ever expanding body of evidence logical activity and environmental fate of algae. Journal of Molecular Evolution 66(1): for GMO safety (Snell et al. 2012; insecticidal Bt (bacillus thuringiensis) cry 80–4. proteins of bacterial and genetically modified Klümper and Qaim 2014; Nicolia et Schönknecht, G., A.P. Weber, and M.J. plant origin. In Molecular Environmental Soil Lercher. 2014. Horizontal gene acquisitions al. 2014). Thus education about the Science. Springer: 49–77. by eukaryotes as drivers of adaptive evolu- incredible sources of genetic variation Hightower, R., C. Baden, E. Penzes, et al. tion. Bioessays 36(1): 9–20. 1991. Expression of antifreeze proteins in in the natural world, such as the nat- Shelomi, M., W.C. Jasper, J. Atallah, et al. transgenic plants. Plant Molecular Biology 2014. Differential expression of endogenous uralness of HGTs among plants and 17(5): 1013–21. plant cell wall degrading enzyme genes in animals and even humans, may greatly Keeling, P.J., and J.D. Palmer. 2008. Horizontal the stick insect (phasmatodea) midgut. BMC gene transfer in eukaryotic evolution. Nature reduce the “unnatural” appearance of Genomics 15: 917. Reviews Genetics 9(8): 605–18. Snell, Chelsea, Aude Bernheim, Jean-Baptiste transgenesis and improve public ac- Kirsch, R., L. Gramzow, G. Theissen, et al. Bergé, et al. 2012. Assessment of the health ceptance of GM crops . . . though im- 2014. Horizontal gene transfer and func- impact of GM plant diets in long-term tional diversification of plant cell wall proving awareness among biologists of and multigenerational animal feeding tri- degrading polygalacturonases: Key events als: A literature review. Food and Chemical the ubiquity of HGTs is a necessary in the evolution of herbivory in beetles. I Toxicology 50(3): 1134–48. first step. Insect Biochemistry and Molecular Biology Syvanen, M. 2012. Evolutionary implications of 52C: 33–50. horizontal gene transfer. Annual Review of References Klümper, Wilhelm, and Matin Qaim. 2014. A Genetics 46: 341–58. meta-analysis of the impacts of genetically Tang, Z., H.H. Zhang, K. Huang, et al. 2015. Alberts, Bruce, Dennis Bray, Karen Hopkin, et modified crops. PloS One 9(11): e111629. Repeated horizontal transfers of four DNA al. 2013. Essential Cell Biology, 4th ed. New Knight, Andrew J. 2009. Perceptions, knowl- transposons in invertebrates and bats. Mobile York: Garland Science. edge and ethical concerns with GM foods DNA 6(1): 3. Boto, L. 2014. Horizontal gene transfer in the and the GM process. Public Understanding Vaeck, Mark, Arlette Reynaerts, Herman Höfte, acquisition of novel traits by metazoans. of Science 18(2): 177–88. et al. 1987. Transgenic plants protected from Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Kronberger, Nicole, Wolfgang Wagner, and insect attack. Nature 328: 33–37. Biological Sciences 281(1777): 20132450. Motohiko Nagata. 2014. How natural is Zeigler, David. 2011. So much to unlearn. Brew, K., P. Tumbale, and K.R. Acharya. “more natural”? The role of method, type of Evolution: Education and Outreach 4(3): 2010. Family 6 glycosyltransferases in ver- transfer, and familiarity for public percep- 539–41. tebrates and bacteria: Inactivation and hori- tions of cisgenic and transgenic modifica- Zhang, ZhuoHui, Jie Chen, Ling Li, et al. 2014. zontal gene transfer may enhance mutualism tion. Science Communication 36(1): 106–30. Research advances in animal distant hybrid- between vertebrates and bacteria. Journal of Mielby, Henrik, Peter Sandøe, and Jesper ization. Science China Life Sciences 57(9): Biological Chemistry 285(48): 37121–7. Lassen. 2012. The role of scientific knowl- 889–902. Bruening, G., and J. Lyons. 2000. The case of edge in shaping public attitudes to gm the Flavr Savr tomato. California Agriculture technologies. Public Understanding of Science 54(4): 6–7. 22(2): 155–68. Crisp, Alastair, Chiara Boschetti, Malcolm Moran, N.A., and T. Jarvik. 2010. Lateral trans- Matan Shelomi, PhD, Perry, et al. 2015. Expression of multiple fer of genes from fungi underlies carotenoid is a research fellow horizontally acquired genes is a hallmark of production in aphids. Science 328(5978): both vertebrate and invertebrate genomes. 624–7. at the Max Planck Genome Biology 16(1): 50. Morris, James Ronald, Daniel L. Hartl, Institute for Chemi- de Maagd, Ruud A. 2015. Bacillus thuringien- Andrew H. Knoll, et al. 2013. Biology: cal Ecology in Jena, sis-based products for insect pest control. How Life Works. New York: WH Freeman/ In Principles of Plant-Microbe Interactions. Macmillan. Germany, studying Springer: 185–92. Naranjo, Steven E. 2014. Effects of GM horizontal gene Doolittle, W. Ford. 2000. Uprooting the tree of crops on non-target organisms. In Plant transfer in insects. life. Scientific American 282(2): 90. Niotechnology. Springer: 129–42. Dragojlovic, Nick, and Edna Einsiedel. 2013. Nicolia, A., A. Manzo, F. Veronesi, et al. 2014. He is also a top writer on Quora.com, which Framing synthetic biology: Evolutionary dis- An overview of the last 10 years of geneti- you can follow for skeptical answers to bi- tance, conceptions of nature, and the unnat- cally engineered crop safety research. Critical ological questions and plenty of amazing uralness objection. Science Communication Reviews in Biotechnology 34(1): 77–88. 35(5): 547–71. Paganini, J., A. Campan-Fournier, M. Da entomological facts.

48 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer The Devil and the Details Why young-Earth creationists may not fully realize what they believe.

JÉRÉMIE HARRIS and EDOUARD HARRIS

n recent decades many branches of Judeo-Christian theism have adapted to make room for the increasing Ibody of scientific evidence in favor of evolution by nat- ural selection. Theists typically achieve their sought-after compromise between science and religion by arguing for other-than-literal interpretations of the biblical account of Creation rendered in Genesis. This relatively mod- ern approach has been addressed at length by many of the foremost atheist and skeptical thinkers of our day. With few exceptions, however, secularists have tended to avoid confronting the more fundamentalist perspective of young-Earth creationism head-on.

Why should this be? Certainly, the From physics, our observation of average skeptic’s reluctance to engage in stars so distant from the Earth that high-profile debates with young-Earth their light must have travelled billions creationists does not arise from want of of years to reach us also points to an evidence for an ancient Earth. Indeed, ancient universe (Ohyama and Hota many apparently independent lines of 2013). From biology, the nearly par- evidence, drawn from numerous dis- adoxical oneness and diversity of na- tinct scientific disciplines, all provide ture, attested to by countless genomic strong indications that both our uni- analyses, constitutes inescapable evi- verse and our planet are very old. dence for the highly gradual process of From geology, radioisotopic dat- evolution by natural selection, which ing of the oldest known mineral sam- similarly requires that our planet be ples on Earth suggests a planetary age far older than the mere ~10,000- on the order of four billion years or year age that one obtains from lit- more (Dalrymple 2001). Multi-mil- eral readings of Genesis (Wall et al. lion-year tectonic shifts, along with 2005). The evolutionary perspective is evidence of glaciers advancing and further supported by the existence of retreating over tens of thousands of an extensive and remarkably consis- years, constitute further evidence tent fossil record (Benton and Ayala that our planet’s age is, at the very 2003), and by the large number of least, many times greater than what vestigial traits retained even by ana- one would infer from the Biblical ac- tomically modern humans as relics of count (Zhao et al. 2002; Royden et a distant evolutionary past not quite al. 2008). left behind (Dubrow et al. 1988).

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 49 Satan’s Guiding Hand What, then, accounts for the dis- that govern our universe may have inclination to engage young-Earthers changed since Creation, rendering We begin by considering the adver- on this issue? There are two answers. fruitless any attempts to extrapolate sarial view of nature taken by those First, many skeptics and secularists the state of affairs in the early universe young-Earthers who argue that contend that a debate over the age from scientific observations made in Satan may be responsible for the 1 of the Earth—one of the most firmly the present day. existence of evidence that contradicts the Creation timeline presented in established facts in science today— In this spirit, young-Earthers posit Genesis. This perspective necessarily serves only a marginal educational one of two scenarios: first, that all the places the Devil in a position of com- purpose, at the expense of providing a existing evidence that points to an an- microphone to a brand of theism bent manding influence over the natural cient Earth has been “planted” by the on leaving believers in a modern-day world. Indeed, it requires that Satan Devil with the intention of deceiving scientific Dark Age. The second rea- be imagined to exact total control over mankind. Second, that Creation may son, which is often unacknowledged virtually every physical law governing and rather more concerning, is that have proceeded in the absence of Sa- the universe, at least for a time. After many scientists and skeptics believe tanic influence, God himself having all, manipulation of both the speed that there is little to be done in the chosen to produce evidence pointing of light and the rate of expansion of face of a number of strategies adopted to an old Earth for reasons known the universe would appear to be pre- by young-Earth apologists in defend- only to him. Here we examine each requisites to convincing modern-day ing their faith. Chief among these is of these views in turn and show that astronomers of the existence of stars the argument that nature cannot, and either path leads inexorably to an billions of light-years away. Likewise, should not, be taken at face value. It is endpoint incompatible with the Ju- the gravitational constant would have imagined that the very physical laws deo-Christian worldview. to be modified with exceeding care and precision to allow for the forma- tion of stars and galaxies as they can presently be observed, within the time allotted by Genesis (Adams 2008). The rates of nuclear decay associated An obvious question presents itself: with every radioisotope known to science would similarly have to be With Satan’s hands on so many of the tuned just so. An obvious question presents it- universe’s most fundamental dials, self: With Satan’s hands on so many what room is left for God in this picture? of the universe’s most fundamental dials, what room is left for God in this picture? But another problem with this position is more practical. The as- sumption that Satan has influenced so many fundamental features of the universe is such a strong one that one may as well ignore any evidence that disagrees with the biblical account of Creation, simply because it disagrees with Genesis. This perspective there- fore reduces to pure tautology. While it explains any evidence that could possibly be advanced for an ancient universe within a theistic framework, it makes no predictions, is therefore untestable by definition, and hence is just as worthy of consideration as any other superstition. Young-Earth apologists often ad- dress the scientific position by chal- lenging the notion that human scien- tific knowledge can even be trusted, given that human intuition arose, on the naturalistic view, through a blind from radioactive dating of ancient Hence, God apparently rewards evolutionary process. While this chal- mineral samples by asserting that the human beings for assuming that the lenge is not entirely without merit, on rates of radioactive decay were once constancy of all physical laws will hold this point the theistic perspective is significantly greater than they are indefinitely into the future. However, actually open to an even stronger ob- today. In essence, the claim here is the view endorsed by proponents of jection. If Satan is imagined to exist— that the Earth was “aged” at an accel- the young-Earth narrative must be and, further, if he is thought to have erated rate prior to humanity’s arrival that he will punish these same humans exerted substantial influence over the on the scene. Similarly, many claim, for assuming that this rule should natural world—then there is presum- light from exceedingly distant stars apply to the past. Further, this posi- ably no guarantee whatsoever that the may have reached us in only a few tion ultimately requires that young- Bible itself was not authored by the thousand years if the speed of light Earthers believe that God created Devil. After all, would this not be a far had once been significantly greater the human species in his image—as simpler task than that of meticulously than it is today. Those arguing for primates with a decided proclivity for fine-tuning the physical constants of this view suggest that God alone extrapolation—and proceeded to pres- the universe for the sole purpose of was involved in the creation process. ent mankind with information from convincing naive human beings of the They propose that the arrangement which could only be extrapolated an inaccuracy of that very Bible? of the universe into its present con- ancient age for the universe, in direct A final problem with pointing to figuration, which strongly suggests an contradiction with his own scripture. Satan’s influence to explain the wealth ancient date of formation, was simply In either case, God must be responsi- of evidence for an ancient Earth has a consequence of his plan. ble for presenting humanity with facts to do with biology. There exist gene sequences, shared among different species, that change slowly over evo- lutionary time at rates that can be By conferring upon our species a desire to estimated empirically. By comparing these special sequences, one can reli- learn, an ability to reason, and a tendency to ably estimate the amount of evolution- extrapolate, God deliberately leads humanity ary time that separates two species; it becomes possible to gauge the approx- to conclude that the account of Creation imate date at which the two species most recently shared a common an- rendered in Genesis is false. cestor. Using this technique, the date of human-chimpanzee divergence has been placed at roughly six million years ago (Stauffer et al. 2001). Hence, There is a profound problem with that strongly indicate the inaccuracy the human genome is itself one of the this perspective, however. The most of the Biblical narrative, when these numerous pieces of scientific evidence successful and influential of our plan- facts are examined using the very in- for an ancient Earth. As a result, if et’s civilizations are precisely those tellectual faculties with which he him- Satan is to be held to account for any that have accepted the constancy of self has imbued us. evidence pointing to an old Earth, he physical laws as a basic operating as- The portrait of God unwittingly must simultaneously be credited with sumption. Civilizations that embrace painted by young-Earth creationists the creation of the human species. this view—and make predictions arguing along these lines is therefore Needless to say, this possibility does based upon it—invariably achieve a a distinctly sadistic one. By conferring not align neatly with the broader Ju- position of competitive advantage deo-Christian perspective. upon our species a desire to learn, an over those that fail to do this. Even ability to reason, and a tendency to ex- in the business world, the most suc- trapolate, God deliberately leads hu- Not-So-Constant Constants cessful companies in existence base manity to conclude that the account of nearly all of their decision making on The second line of the argument Creation rendered in Genesis is false. the assumption that the physical laws often adopted by young-Earth cre- The conspiratorially minded deity that of today will continue to hold tomor- ationists to explain the existence of must therefore be postulated on this evidence suggesting a multi-billion- row: the iPad, for example, is designed view is difficult to reconcile with the year age of the Earth holds that the with the assumption that the laws of benevolent God of Abraham. Indeed, physical laws governing the universe electricity and magnetism governing it would appear that the God of this may not have applied, in their present its operation will hold indefinitely argument, and the Devil of the last, form, for all time. Young-Earthers (or at least up to the expiration of the explain the isotopic ratios obtained warranty). are different in name only.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 51 Taking Things Literally References since these also must have survived the As we have seen, the literal reading flood intact. None of these predictions Adams, Fred C. 2008. Stars in other universes: Stellar structure with different fundamental of Genesis that motivates the young- are realized on Earth in the present constants. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Earth creation movement cannot be day; therefore, a reasonable fully liter- Physics 2008(08): 010. reconciled with the broader theistic alist take on Genesis cannot be recon- Benton, Michael J., and Francisco J. Ayala. 2003. Dating the tree of life. Science 300: 1698–1700. view of the biblical god as a benev- ciled with observed reality. Dalrymple, G. Brent. 2001. The age of the Earth olent and loving friend to humanity. For these reasons, the only way to in the twentieth century: A problem (mostly) This should come as no surprise even bridge the biblical-empirical divide is solved. Special Publications, Geological Society of London 190(1): 205–221. to the most ardent theist, since an to challenge the laws of nature them- Dubrow, Terry J., Phillip Ashley Wackym, and absolute, literal reading of the Bible selves, or our very ability to reason Malcolm A. Lesavoy. 1988. Detailing the human tail. Annals of Plastic Surgery 20(4): simply cannot be true. and draw valid conclusions about the 340–344. More generally, one might ask, world around us. We note in this re- Ohyama, Youichi, and Ananda Hota. 2013. how should the world look if a literal gard that this is precisely the strategy Discovery of a possibly single blue supergiant star in the intra-cluster region of Virgo cluster reading of Genesis were accurate? adopted by young-Earthers, but that of galaxies. The Astrophysical Journal Letters Certainly, the totality of scientific those advancing this perspective sel- 767(2): L29. history in the past 500 years would be dom apply this super-skepticism to Royden, Leigh H., B. Clark Burchfiel, and Robert D. van der Hilst. 2008. The geological evo- completely unrecognizable. The dis- any domain outside religious apolo- lution of the Tibetan Plateau. Science 321: 1054–1058. Stauffer, Rebecca L., et al. 2001. Human and ape The literal reading of Genesis that motivates molecular clocks and constraints on paleonto- logical hypotheses. Journal of Heredity 92(6): the young-Earth creation movement cannot be 469–474. Wall, Dennis P., et al. 2005. Functional genomic reconciled with the broader theistic analysis of the rates of protein evolution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102(15): 5483– view of the biblical god as a benevolent 5488. Zhao, Guochun, Peter A. Cawood, Simon A. and loving friend to humanity. Wilde, et al. 2002. Review of global 2.1–1.8 Ga orogens: Implications for a pre-Rodinia supercontinent. Earth-Science Reviews 59: 125–162. coveries of vestigial traits and shared getics. How often, one might won- Jérémie Harris is a genetic sequences among virtually der, would the average young-Earther Vanier Scholar and all organisms would never have been second-guess whether to jump off a holds a master’s made. Neanderthal cave drawings building in the belief that the law of degree in biological discovered throughout Europe would gravity may be divinely suspended, if physics from the never have surfaced. The fossil record, only for a moment? University of To- radioactive dating, and all other di- A critical double standard exists ronto. He is currently rect scientific evidence for an ancient between theists and secularists on the pursuing doctoral studies in quantum Earth would be similarly nonexistent. question of ultimate origins. While photonics under the Canada Excellence Instead, conclusive evidence sug- young-Earth creationism primarily Research Chair in quantum nonlinear op- gesting that events such as the Exodus aims to show that the Genesis scenario tics. His research is focused on address- is possible by arguing for the existence actually occurred as described in scrip- ing fundamental questions in quantum of reasonable doubt on the naturalis- ture should be plentiful, or at least ap- mechanics. parent. One might also be entitled to tic view, the same is not true of more expect the conspicuous absence of any secular perspectives. Origin scenarios Edouard Harris is a indications that humans have been that do not depend upon the existence Vanier Scholar and present on Earth prior to the past ten of god(s) are expected to provide proof PhD candidate in thousand years or so. The geographic positive of their correctness. They are theoretical and ex- distribution of species should also be therefore held to a significantly higher perimental biological far more homogenous: with all the standard of evidence than religious physics at the Uni- Earth’s animals in one place during accounts of Creation—one that they versity of Toronto. the Great Flood, every part of the have largely met, to their overwhelm- I His research is aimed at applying Bayes- planet with the same climate should ing credit. ian inference techniques to the design maintain an approximately constant Note and creation of synthetic biological sys- ratio of wild pigs to camels, for exam- tems. ple. Further, all existing plant species 1. This position is explored in great detail by young-Earth apologist Ken Ham, among others, should be immune to immersion in Together they also wrote “Evolution: The Big and on his organization’s website (https://answersin water for extended periods of time, genesis.org/age-of-the-earth/). Small of It” in our March/April 2015 issue.

52 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer The Search for Negative Evidence By their nature, paranormal claims depend not on positive but negative evidence, by which proponents attempt to use mysteries (“the unexplained”) to support their beliefs. In contrast, scientists seek to use positive evidence to solve mysteries.

JOE NICKELL AND JAMES MCGAHA

veryone loves a mystery. Solve one in science, and unexpected medical cure, and b is pre- sumed to be, respectively, a Bigfoot, accolades are forthcoming. Not so, however, in the or flying saucer, or . Actually Erealm of the paranormal, where evidence, logic, and it might instead be, again respectively, theories are often stood on their heads. Whereas forensic an upright-standing bear, Venus seen through layers of atmosphere, or the scientists, say, begin with the evidence and let it lead to the result of prior medical treatment. most likely solution to a mystery, “parascientists” typically begin with the desired answer and work backward to the Negative Evidence evidence, employing confirmation bias: They look for that As psychologist Ray Hyman (1996, 23) observed of one paranormal field: “The which seems to confirm their prior-held belief and seek to history of is replete discredit whatever—or whoever—would argue against it. with ‘successful’ experiments that sub- sequently could not be replicated.” For example, in the paranormal tack. For them, investigation is not a Pointing out that so-called remote field of cryptozoology (a term coined quest to explain a mystery (what they viewing and other supposed forms of by Ivan T. Sanderson to describe the deride as “trying to explain it away”) ESP were defined negatively—that study of “hidden” or unverified animals but rather to collect mysteries about is, as an effect remaining after other [Heuvelmans 1968, 508]), proponents whatever paranormalities they believe normal explanations had supposedly of Bigfoot offer a large quantity of evi- in, by which they hope to convince been eliminated—Hyman noted that dence. Unfortunately, it is of very poor others there must be “something to it.” a mere glitch in the experimental data quality: eyewitness reports, footprint In short, they are not detectives but could thus be counted as evidence for casts, hair samples—just what is attrib- mystery mongers. psychic phenomena. “What is needed, utable to misperception or deception. For them, the mystery is essentially of course,” he said wisely, “is a posi- It is all questionable evidence because, an end point rather than a beginning. tive theory of psychic functioning that hoaxes aside, neither a live Bigfoot nor If it is not readily explained, they do enables us to tell when psi is present a carcass nor even a DNA specimen is not blame a lack of evidence; instead and when it is absent” (emphasis in available for scientific study. they suppose thereby that something original). He added, “As far as I can The same situation holds true for has been established: “We don’t know tell, every other discipline that claims other claims. They include psychic what caused oil to appear on the statue; to be a science deals with phenomena phenomena; ghosts, , and therefore, it must be a sign from God.” whose presence or absence can clearly demons; flying saucers and aliens; But this is a type of logical fallacy be decided.” This requirement—this need—for cryptids, such as the Loch Ness mon- known as argumentum ad ignorantiam, positive rather than negative evidence ster; spontaneous human combustion; an argument from ignorance—that is, drawing a conclusion from a lack of is ignored or dismissed by the mystery and weeping statues; the knowledge. One cannot say “We don’t mongers. In the titles of their books Devil’s Triangle; and so on and on. know” and then assert that therefore we and TV documentaries, they trot out Mainstream science has not verified as do know. such words as unsolved, unexplained, genuinely paranormal any of these ob- And yet that very faulty reasoning is unknown—presenting not mysteries jects, entities, or occurrences. behind most paranormal claims: “We to be investigated and solved but sup- can’t explain what caused a; therefore, posedly eternal enigmas that prove (by Arguing from Mysteries it’s likely b,” where a is a hairy-mon- arguing from ignorance) the existence Parascientists usually take a different ster sighting or hovering light or an of the paranormal.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 53 Consider, for example, the claims confidence is this: Spontaneous (as The transformation from skeptic of miraculous healings at Lourdes, the well as preternatural) human com- to—no, not believer because that has certain “theological” connota- French healing shrine. Claims there are bustibility happens, though it has tions—a scientist who felt he was derived not positively but from those remained hidden.” on the track of an interesting phe- cases that are held to be “medically in- • Crop circle advocates have suggested nomenon was gradual, but by the explicable”—a classic argument from various “theories” to explain the late ’60’s it was complete. Today ignorance. (In 2008, however, the In- supposedly inexplicable patterns in I would not spend one additional ternational Medical Committee of moment on the subject of UFOs if English grain fields (despite exten- I didn’t seriously feel that the UFO Lourdes announced that the physicians’ sive evidence of hoaxing [Nickell phenomenon is real and that efforts panel would no longer be in the “mira- 2004, 115–122]). Ken Rogers of the to investigate and understand it, and cle” business, thereafter only indicating Unexplained Society opines, “The eventually to solve it, could have a whether a case is “remarkable.” They circles are indeed the result of a UFO profound effect—perhaps even be the springboard to a revolution in will not be inferring a miracle from landing to probe the crops. There “medically inexplicable” [Nickell 2013, man’s view of himself and his place is no other explanation . . .” (qtd. in in the universe. 183–185].) Randles and Fuller 1990, 16). Hynek nevertheless grew cautious Unidentified Flying Objects about the extraterrestrial hypothesis, noting that it “runs up against a very Perhaps nowhere is negative evidence big difficulty, namely, that we are see- Perhaps nowhere is sought and promoted more avidly than ing too many UFOs. The earth is only negative evidence by UFOlogists, whose very subject of a spot of dust in the Universe. Why study begins with the word unidentified. should it be honored with so many vis- sought and promoted Prominent among such collectors was its?” Instead, he said, “I am more in- Charles Fort (1874–1932). Sometimes clined to think in terms of something more avidly than by considered the “first” UFOlogist (Clark metaterrestrial, a sort of parallel reality,” UFOlogists, whose 1998, I: 420), Fort was an armchair positing “that UFOs are related to cer- purveyor of strange mysteries. Having tain psychic phenomena” (qtd. in Story very subject of study come into an inheritance that allowed 2001, 252). Thus he tried to “explain” him to indulge his hobby, he spent his one unknown by invoking another! begins with the word last twenty-six years scouring old peri- Today, UFOlogists such as Peter unidentified. odicals for reports of unusual occur- B. Davenport, director of the National rences—including anomalous aerial UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC), phenomena—that he taunted “ortho- believe that the great number of un- dox” scientists to explain (Fort 1941). identifieds indicate at least something Not only was his evidence anecdotal momentous is behind them. Given Elsewhere, in “miracle” and other and his approach non-investigative, but “impressive quantities of principally paranormal claims, the appeal to nega- his “documentation was not always eyewitness data,” says Davenport, while tive evidence remains all too common. completely accurate” (Gross 2001, 204). most eyewitness descriptions are of For example: Nevertheless, Fort is the darling of poor quality, “many of the high-quality • Grant Wilson, who partnered with many UFOlogists and other collectors sighting reports involve certain objec- Jason Hawes in TV’s Ghost Hunters, of phenomena that supposedly “defy tive aspects, which, to an open-minded says their approach to ghost hunting natural explanation,” what they term bystander, are quite impressive.” He was to “end up with only those things “Fortean phenomena” or “Forteana,” adds, “Strong evidence suggests that we you can’t explain away” (Hawes and named after him (Guiley 2001, 212– are dealing with a phenomenon that is Wilson 2007, 6). 213; Gross 2001, 203–205; Clark 1998, being caused by palpable solid objects • Larry Arnold (1995, 463), in his 420–425). whose characteristics are not of human book Ablaze! The Mysterious Fires One of history’s top UFOlo- design, and whose behavior is sugges- of Spontaneous Human Combustion, gists was astronomer J. Allen Hynek tive of intelligent control” (qtd. in Story states unabashedly: “I am the first (1910–1986), once a consultant and 2001, 150). He is, of course, hinting at to admit that SHC [spontaneous self-claimed “debunker” on the U.S. extraterrestrials—albeit coyly—while human combustion] defies common Air Force’s UFO-investigating Project the “objects” remain unidentified. sense and smacks of the unknowable. Blue Book. Hynek (1977, 7–9, 17) be- Another who cites the unexplained I don’t have all the answers to it; I came impressed that, at first, 23 per- nature of UFOs is Richard Hall, a may have none of the answers. And cent of UFOs he studied remained “un- UFO advocate associated with such certainly, I don’t have all the pieces to knowns” and—going on to found the groups as MUFON and CUFOS. He this jigsaw of enigmas.” Nevertheless, Center for UFO Studies (CUFOS)— emphasizes, “Among the hundreds of he concludes, “What I can say with he embraced the negative evidence: so-called ‘UFO reports’ each year, a

54 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Conclusion nd sizeable fraction of those clearly ob- 2 ed. (in two volumes). Detroit, MI: The problem with all such grandiose Omnigraphics. served by reputable witnesses remain Fort, Charles. 1941. The Complete Books of Charles unexplained—and difficult to explain extrapolation from the data is that it Fort. Reprinted New York: Dover, 1974. in conventional terms.” He believes lacks positive evidence. No actual fly- Friedman, Stanton T. 1996. Top Secret/Magic. that “Collectively, these cases consti- ing saucer or extraterrestrial pilot has New York: Marlowe & Co. Gross, Loren E. 2001. In Story 2001, 203–205. tute a genuine scientific mystery, badly ever been captured—notwithstanding Guiley, Rosemary Ellen. 2001. Encyclopedia of the in need of well-supported, systematic hoaxes, folktales, and conspiracy claims. Strange, Mystical, & Unexplained. New York: investigation.” Again he says, “The There are only eyewitness reports, pho- Grammercy Books. circumstantial—and sometimes physi- tos, ground traces, and the like—all of Hawes, Jason, and Grant Wilson. 2007. Ghost Hunting. New York: Pocket Books. cal—evidence indicates that something something unidentified. Heuvelmans, Bernard. 1968. In the Wake of the Sea real is going on for which no satisfac- But don’t all those unidentifieds Serpents; trans. Richard Garnett. New York: tory explanation currently exists.” count for something? Well, quantity Hill and Wang. is not quality. As extensive evidence Hyman, Ray. 1996. Evaluation of the mili- Hall believes that mistaken obser- tary’s twenty-year program on psychic spying. vations of terrestrial objects as well as shows, cases once touted as unexplained S I 20(2)(March/April): “hoaxes/imagination” are to be rejected were only that; they were not unex- 21–26. as explanations because both are “inap- plainable, and, as a matter of fact, many Hynek, J. Allen. 1977. The UFO Report. Reprinted New York: Barnes & Noble, 1997. plicable to the hard-core unexplained of them have since succumbed to in- McGaha, James, and Joe Nickell. 2011. Exeter cases.” He prefers instead the possibility vestigation. Not one proved to be any- incident solved! S I 34(6) of “so-called ‘nuts and bolts’ visitors from thing other than a natural or manmade (November/December): 16–19. phenomenon—not such classic cases, ———. 2015. Alien lights? At Phoenix, elsewhere” (qtd. in Story 2001, 239). Stephenville, elsewhere: A postmortem. Even vacillating UFOlogist/folk- for example, as Roswell, Rendlesham S I 39(2)(March/April): lorist Thomas E. Bullard (2010, 311) Forest, Flatwoods, Kecksburg, Exeter, 50–53. suggests—at least tentatively: Phoenix, and Stephenville (Nickell and Nickell, Joe. 2004. The Mystery Chronicles. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky. McGaha 2012; McGaha and Nickell ———. 2013. The Science of Miracles. Amherst, Investigators of current and histori- 2011, 2015). Some cases may never be New York: Prometheus Books. cal UFO reports have sifted out cases explained because of original eyewit- Nickell, Joe, with John F. Fischer. 1992. Mysterious with sufficient credible evidence to ness error, falsified evidence, lack of es- Realms: Probing Paranormal, Historical, and Forensic Enigmas. Lexington: University Press qualify as defensible. These cases sential information, or other flaws. For suggest that the character of UFO of Kentucky. narratives depends in some part on similar reasons some murders remain Nickell, Joe, and James McGaha. 2012. The Roswellian syndrome. S I the character of UFO events, and unsolved, yet we do not consider those cases evidence of a homicide gremlin. 36(3)(May/June): 30–36. those events owe their character to a Randles, Jenny, and Paul Fuller. 1990. Crop source independent of UFO mythol- Nothing said so far means we should Circles: A Mystery Solved. London: Robert ogy. . . . Even allowing for human not continue to investigate unexplained Hale. fallibility and self-deception, a gen- phenomena, including UFOs. After Story, Ronald. 2001. The Encyclopedia of uine mystery seems to be left over. Extraterrestrial Encounters. New York: New all, onetime skepticism of fiery stones American Library. Bullard is clearly relying on the pro- falling from the skies ultimately gave cess-of-elimination method that is the way to proof of meteorites. Science has basis of negative evidence. nothing to fear from the examination of Joe Nickell, PhD, is CSI’s Then there is Stanton T. Friedman, UFO reports, which, to date, have not senior research fellow. who promotes the notion of extrater- been useless after all: We have learned A former private detec- restrial visitation with bluster, smoke much about illusions and mispercep- tive, stage magician, screens, and ballyhoo. He rationalizes, tions and fantasy, about personality and scholar, he is author “I learned early on that absence of ev- traits, about rare phenomena such as of many investigative idence is not the same as evidence for ball lightning, about the propensity of books, including Crime absence.” True enough, but then he immature persons to perpetrate hoaxes Science (with John is still left with absence of evidence. (skeptics included!), and much more. Fischer) and Unsolved History. Friedman, a onetime self-described But investigation must go beyond just collecting negative evidence. It must “itinerant nuclear physicist” was fooled James McGaha, by the amateurishly forged “MJ-12 represent a real attempt to solve—that I Major, USAF retired, documents” that purported to prove is, to explain—a mystery. is a former special the U.S. government had retrieved a References operations and crashed saucer and its humanoid occu- Arnold, Larry E. 1995. Ablaze! The Mysterious electronic warfare pants—proof, Friedman believes, that Fires of Spontaneous Human Combustion. New pilot who is now positive evidence has been covered up York: M. Evans and Co. also an astronomer by a high-level conspiracy (Friedman Bullard, Thomas E. 2010. The Myth and Mystery of UFOs. Lawrence: The University Press of and director of Grasslands Observatory at 1996, 8, 13, 209–219; Nickell with Kansas. Fischer 1992, 81–105). Clark, Jerome. 1998. The UFO Encyclopedia, Tucson, Arizona.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 55 [ REVIEWS

A Protopian View of Moral Progress DANIEL GRASSAM

eligion has often positioned itself as the originator (and for some The Moral Arc: How Science and Reason Lead Humanity Rthe sole provider) of morality. Toward Truth, Justice, and Freedom. By Michael Shermer. In The Moral Arc, Michael Shermer Henry Holt and Company, 2015. ISBN 9780805096910. argues that “most of the moral devel- 541 pp. Hardcover, $32.00. opment of the past several centuries has been the result of secular not religious forces” and that it is sci- ence and reason that bend the moral arc toward justice, truth, and freedom. For the few who don’t know Michael Shermer, he is the founding publisher imal rights. A lot of research went into of Skeptic magazine and the writer of a this section (each chapter’s endnotes number of successful books, including contain more than fifty references) and Why People Believe Weird Things. For Why is our moral sphere the quality of the narrative matches the those wondering what the moral arc expanding? Shermer ascribes quantity of the data, giving ample op- is, the book’s first section, “The Moral that to “our expanding portunity to exchange perspectives and Arc Explained,” covers it. In brief, maybe expand one’s own moral sphere. the moral arc is a metaphor Shermer intelligence and abstract It may sound odd to describe chapters borrowed from a nineteenth-century that discuss so much tragedy, pain, and abolitionist preacher named Theodore reasoning ability,” which suffering as enjoyable, but they are. Parker that “symbolizes what may be gives us the ability to This may be because they are stories of the most important and least appre- change our point of view triumph, at least for three of the four ciated trend in human history—moral subjects. The chapter on animal rights progress.” and to see and feel the may have you rethinking that steak din- What has been driving moral prog- perspectives of others: ress is explained by another metaphor: ner and questioning the justifiability of the expanding moral sphere. Shermer other races, other sexes, animal testing. prefers the three-dimensional sphere other sexual orientations, “In a book on moral progress, it is necessary to address its obvious an- over the original expanding circle first and other species. used in 1869. (We may think of our- tithesis—moral regress—and identify selves as morally progressive, but Irish which pathways lead to evil, to mitigate historian William Edward Hartpole them.” This is the topic of the third and Lecky, who first used the expanding final section, where Shermer considers orientations, and other species. circle metaphor, wrote about including the psychology of immorality using the The exchange of perspectives gives animals in our moral circle almost 150 “arguably no more poignant example rise to the application of the moral arc, years ago.) Why is our moral sphere ex- than that of the Nazis.” Shermer seeks panding? Shermer ascribes that to “our the results of which is the subject of the to understand how an otherwise “intel- expanding intelligence and abstract rea- book’s second section. Here Shermer ligent, learned, highly cultured people” soning ability,” which gives us the abil- gives a thorough account of the ab- could commit such atrocities. This in- ity to change our point of view and to olition of slavery, the rise of women’s vestigation leads to questions of moral see and feel the perspectives of others: rights, the progress of the gay rights culpability. In a deterministic world, other races, other sexes, other sexual movement, and the current state of an- can you hold people accountable for

56 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer their actions? Throughout the book Shermer argues for the importance Unlocking the of continuous thinking over categor- ical thinking, spectrums not pairs. Treasures In this instance he suggests that we DAVID KORDAHL think about “degrees of freedom,” a scale with insects on one end having very little freedom and humans on the other possessing the most. Even within our species there is a range where some people—“psychopaths, the brain-damaged, the severely Great Calculations: A Surprising Look Behind 50 Scientific depressed, or the chemically ad- Inquiries. By Colin Pask. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 2015. ISBN 1633880281. 414 pp. Softcover, $18.00. Shermer describes The Moral Arc as a “protopian work.”

ack when I taught high school era of Rap Genius, surely the science physics, I’d lug those giant greats deserve some lucid annotation. dicted—have fewer degrees of free- BStephen Hawking anthologies In their failures, the Hawking an- dom.” With this understanding the down from the shelf a few times every thologies suggest the possibility of a question turns to what do to with year. During the gravity unit, for better version. What if another book this knowledge and how to apply instance, I’d select On the Shoulders could guide us, with a balance of econ- it in our justice systems. Is the goal of Giants, all 1,264 pages, and pass it omy and detail, through pivotal results of our justice system to mete out around so students could appreciate its in the history of science with explana- punishment or lower recidivism? impressive heft. Most of them would tions that would dig beyond the usual What works best? A retributive, hand it off uninterested, but the inter- summaries, down to the calculations punishment-based justice system or ested few would flip through its pages. themselves? What if the book combined a restorative one? Shermer demon- These anthologies, after all, presented a Wikipedian breadth with a professo- strates with studies and explains history’s geniuses (On the Shoulders of rial authority, and what if it had an atti- through anecdotes how restorative Giants collects Copernicus, Galilei, tude not of bringing the geniuses down justice, where the perpetrator “apol- , Newton, and Einstein) with to us, but of bringing us up to them? ogizes for the crime; attempts to set minimal intros by Hawking—another And oh yeah—what if the book were to rights the situation; and, ideally, genius. Those brave students who bor- genuinely fun to read? initiates or restores good relations rowed such books would return them You’ve probably beaten me to the with the victim,” can work. reverently, impressed by all they didn’t punch: Colin Pask has written that Shermer describes The Moral know and having learned almost noth- book. Great Calculations is an idiosyn- Arc as a “protopian work,” a phrase ing at all. cratic skeleton key to science history, meant to distinguish it from the un- The longer I worked as a teacher, the and it has the makings of a minor clas- realistic ideal of utopia, a static place less eager I was to recommend Hawk- sic. “The calculations described in this where everything is perfect. Protopia ing’s anthologies. At a certain point, I book,” Pask writes in the preface, “are is about making steady and contin- realized that these books—however un- mostly relatively simple (at least in prin- uous incremental improvement, to wittingly—encouraged two big misper- ciple, if not always in practice) but still of “try to make the world a slightly bet- ceptions: first, that science is the story of major significance.” ter place tomorrow than yesterday.” a few lone geniuses; second, that science From a distance, there’s nothing too Shermer is optimistic; after reading is usually too opaque to understand. Of unusual here. Pask is an emeritus math n The Moral Arc you may be too. course, the first of these failings isn’t re- professor and the author of two previous ally the books’ fault (any finite “history” books—an overview of mathematical Daniel Grassam writes from his home requires a culling of the herd), but the thinking (Math for the Frightened) and an in Auckland, New Zealand. second still seems unforgivable. In the exploration of Newton’s work (Magnif-

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 57 [ NEW AND NOTABLE

Listing does not preclude future review. icent Principia). In its organization, Great Calcula- tions has a pedagogue’s pragmatism and clarity with THE ASTRONOMER AND THE WITCH: Johannes topical chapters that each move forward in chrono- Kepler’s Fight for his Mother. Ulinka Rublack. logical arcs. After an introduction, the book has two Astronomer was a key figure in chapters on pure math, one on earth science, three the scientific revolution, defending the Coperni- on astronomy, one on biology, three on physics, one can view of a sun-centered universe. However, on dynamical models, and a final chapter to discuss his role in defending those accused of witchcraft how these particular fifty calculations were picked. is far less well known. In 1615, when Kepler was Parenthetical references to the extensive bibliogra- at the height of his career, his mother Katharina was accused of witchcraft. The trial lasted six phy are scattered liberally throughout. years, and Kepler conducted his mother’s de- What’s unusual is how well Pask contextualizes fense. In The Astronomer and the Witch, Ulinka Rublack discusses this his material. When Pask discusses the Fibonacci episode in Kepler’s life and how it offers a fascinating glimpse into his sequence, we’re told how Fibonacci—or Leonardo worldview. While providing rational explanations for phenomena that Pisano, Family Bonaci, as he was known—wrote his mother’s accusers attributed to witchcraft—for example, Rublack Liber Abbacci, a book whose main purpose was to notes that Katharina Kepler had accidentally brought suspicion on teach readers how to use Arabic numerals. Much of herself by asking for her fathers’s skull, since “Skulls ranked among the legally recognized means of sorcery and could render anyone Liber Abbacci was solidly practical (Chapter 9: “On dealing with them under suspicion of being a witch”—Kepler did not the Barter of Merchandise and Similar Things”), question the existence of magic or witchcraft; in fact, he believed in but on one page Leonardo posed the question his- them. And Kepler was hardly alone; as Brian Levack notes in his book tory would remember him for: “How many pairs of The Witch-Hunt in Early Modern Europe, “In the context of witchcraft rabbits are created by one pair in one year?” the word ‘skepticism’ usually denotes the attitudes of those who doubt Most of us know how that one goes. Just add or deny the existence of witches or the possibility of their crime. Ju- up the last two entries, starting with 1 pair, then dicial skeptics did not necessarily adopt such a stance. . . . Judicial skepticism could, and in most cases did, coexist with a firm belief in 1+1 =2 the next month, then 2+1=3 the next . . . the reality and possibility of the crime” (p. 254). The Astronomer and up to 377 bunny pairs, one year in. And while it’s the Witch is a fascinating blend of science biography and examination simply interesting to see where such a calculation of witchcraft beliefs and persecutions. Oxford University Press, 2015, originated, one of the book’s great pleasures is its 272 pp, $29.95. casual tracking of how the continued study of a basic issue (population dynamics) can lead to increasingly BRIEF CANDLE IN THE DARK: My Life in Science. diverse investigations (exponential growth, actuarial Richard Dawkins. Zoologist and evolutionary bi- ologist Dawkins burst onto the cultural scene tables, chaos theory). with his Selfish Gene in 1976 and other memora- The inclusion of books such as Liber Abbacci ble books, including River Out of Eden, Climbing in Great Calculations might be taken to imply that Mount Improbable, Unweaving the Rainbow, and progress in math is identical to progress in science. his 2006 bestseller The God Delusion. Brief Can- There’s some truth to this. Pask has a great respect dle in the Dark is his typically lively, engaging, for mathematicians such as John Napier, inventor and thought-provoking autobiographical look at of the logarithm, who managed to speed scientific his life as a scientist and at times controversial public figure. Filled with insights, stories, and anecdotes about his progress. (Pask quotes Laplace, who wrote that log- life, his friends and intellectual colleagues, his courses, his enthusi- arithms, “by shortening the labors, doubled the life asms, his lectures, debates, television appearances, and books (he of astronomers.”) But Pask is careful not to conflate gives the publishing backstories plus substantive summaries of all math and science exactly, and some of the results twelve), Brief Candle in the Dark displays all the intelligence, insight, he includes are as mathematically trivial as they are clear-thinking, literary quality, and at times provocative observations physically profound. we have come to expect from Dawkins. Highly recommended. Ecco/ The most extreme example of this—a calcula- HarperCollins, 2015, 416 pp., $27.99. tion that Pask includes in his all-time top-ten—is A COLORFUL HISTORY OF POPULAR DELUSIONS. the simple calculation with which William Harvey Robert E. Bartholomew and Peter Hassall. Two established the circulation of blood. The accepted social historians write an entertaining survey theory of blood flow, passed down from Galen, as- of stories to serve as a guide to recognizing and serted there were two different types of blood—one understanding the dynamics of collective obses- from the lungs that traveled through the arteries, sions and follies, what the nineteenth century and another from the liver that traveled through Scottish journalist Charles Mackay called “popular delusions.” Along the way they create a typology the veins. Capillaries, the linkages between arteries of such behaviors in two broad categories: social and veins, were too small to be observed, so it was panics and enthusiasms. The twelve main chapter assumed that blood was consumed at the parts of subjects indicate the typology: rumors, fads, crazes, manias, urban the body wherever it was sent. To contradict this, Harvey calculated the volume of blood that the

58 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEWS ] human heart pumped in a half-hour—more blood, it turned out, than the whole human body could hold. legends, stampedes and panics, classical mass hysterias, anxiety Even readers steeped in old theory found this absurd. hysteria, immediate community threats, moral panics, riots, and The simple calculation cast a shadow on old notions, small group panics. Prometheus Books, 2015, 352 pp., $19.00. and Harvey’s new ideas about circulation were accepted widely in his own lifetime. GOOD THINKING: What You Need to Know to be Pask doesn’t reveal his criteria for calling a calcula- Smarter, Safer, Wealthier, and Wiser. Guy P. tion “great” until the last chapter. By then, I was curi- Harrison. Award-winning journalist Guy Harri- son has done it again. Author of such laudatory ous. Pask always tells us his reasons for being impressed, works as Think: Why You Should Question Ev- but with only fifty calculations, why these? Ptolemy’s erything, 50 Popular Beliefs That People Think Almagest, for instance, is hailed not only as an early, Are True, 50 Simple Questions for Every Chris- successful mathematical model of the planets but also tian, and Race and Reality, Harrison presents as “the first mass-produced mathematical table.” That another lively guide based on the view that seems fair. But some inclusions are puzzling. Why is skepticism is the essential posture for the twen- Lord Kelvin’s 1862 calculation of the age of the Earth ty-first-century human being and critical thinking the indispensable skill for living in modern society. He raises questions about think- included? By Kelvin’s estimate, Earth was 20–400 mil- ing and takes readers on an expedition into the brain, the pitfalls of lion years old—a number that’s a way off from our cur- human memory, our implicit biases, and the battle of good thinking rent estimate of 4.5 billion years, to say the least. vs. conspiracy theories. Prometheus Books, 2015, 290 pp., $17.00. Pask’s greatness criteria are fivefold. His great calcu- lations are so chosen because they a) marked a break- A NUMERATE LIFE: A Mathematician Explores through, b) revealed something unexpected, c) were the Vagaries of Life, His Own and Probably mathematically innovative, d) were “heroic” (i.e., tough Yours. John Allen Paulos. Mathematics profes- sor and author John Allen Paulos popularized to complete), or e) had a major social and/or intellectual the word innumeracy for our lack of numerate impact. thinking and strangely cheerful acceptance of Each of the calculations discussed in this book fits at mathematical ignorance. Here he presents a least two of these criteria. Kelvin’s estimate for the age “meta-memoir,” or even “anti-memoir,” com- of the Earth, then, is a “great calculation” not because bining personal memories and mathematical it’s correct but because it fits criteria a* (the asterisk, Pask approaches to re-evaluating them. The book is explains, is to indicate “an extreme case”), b, c, and e. filled with entertaining vignettes to illuminate still more about how mathematical thinking provides new perspec- Admittedly, I’m not convinced that this tabulation tive on human habits and peculiarities. A commentary on life, his has made the chosen fifty any more fair and balanced and yours. Prometheus Books, 2015, 200 pp., $17.00. than had Pask just titled the book Some Favorite Cal- culations and dropped the front. It seems that Pask, RESPECTING TRUTH: Willful Ignorance in the too, has worried about this. A few chapters end with Internet Age. Lee McIntyre. McIntyre is a re- apologetic subheads (e.g., “WHAT IS LEFT OUT”) search fellow at the Center for the Philosophy under which lie charming sketches of the runners up. and History of Science at Boston University and author of the 2006 book Dark Ages, which Even when a calculation’s pantheon position is secure, argued that ideology was corrupting the stan- one can still see Pask’s thumbprints on the pedestal. dards for evidence-based belief in the social For example, calculation 35, “photons exist,” is in fact a sciences. Now he finds science itself (the one-two punch from Planck and Einstein, but in Pask’s natural sciences this time) under attack by telling, Einstein takes the foreground. To me, this looks people (from diverse political viewpoints) who like the decision of a smart writer, not a fair judge. Pask routinely question, resist, deny, ridicule, reject, knows just how many pages Plank would require. and outright disrespect findings of science they find inconvenient. In this short book, McIntyre explores this “willful ignorance,” a perva- But if such artful elisions make this something less sive hostility to the concept of science-based truth in the first place. than a reference anthology, that’s also the charm. Great As he says, the problem isn’t mere ignorance of the truth; it is the Calculations is a mathematical mixtape filled with a “willfulness” that is troubling. He thinks most people, deep down, career’s worth of carefully curated showstoppers. The know that we cannot do without science. He wants to reach those book deserves to be read by fans of science everywhere. who “may wish to row away from science and reason when it is con- n venient but . . . also want to keep the shoreline in sight.” Routledge, 2015, 150 pp., $29.95.

David Kordahl has written for the Los Angeles Review of SEEKING BIGFOOT. Michael Newton. Newton is a prolific writer with Books, Nautilus, and Motherboard. After earning an MS in nearly 300 books to his name, including several on cryptozoology, physics, he taught science at Mesa High School for four and his disdain for skeptics is a recurring theme in his work. In his latest book Newton briskly touches on a handful of Bigfoot-re- years. He is now working toward a physics doctorate at Ari- zona State University.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 59 lated topics, including tracks, hoaxes, and sightings—though oddly the 1967 Patter- son/Gimlin film that has for decades been touted as the gold standard for evidence On Her Majesty’s barely merits a mention. Unfortunately, Seeking Bigfoot pads out its 190 pages with Secret Saucers tangential sections and chapters such as lists of monster-related movies, TV shows, ROBERT SHEAFFER Facebook pages, YouTube clips, Bigfoot en- thusiast groups, and websites. Newton’s re- search seems to have been mostly done online, which is evident in his URL-heavy reference and citation list. This is not inherently How UFOs Conquered the World: problematic, but Google searches are usually poor at finding orig- inal resources and content. Furthermore, instead of doing origi- The History of a Modern Myth. nal research and bringing new information to light on Bigfoot or By David Clarke. Aurum Press, other cryptids that may be locked away in old newspapers, jour- Ltd., London, 2015. 312 pp. nal articles, or printed books, most of the information Newton $28.99. presents can be easily found online by anyone with an Internet connection. Newton adds more filler by listing biographies of doz- ens of Bigfoot hunters (most of them friends of his, with skeptics conspicuously absent) and state-by-state mentions of reports culled largely from the notorious Bigfoot Field Researcher’s Or- ganization. In a section likely to embarrass Newton for years to come, he endorses Melba Ketchum’s thoroughly discredited (and self-published) “Bigfoot DNA” results from 2013. As commentary, Newton quotes an apparently anonymous “Internet blogger who ne of the most profound was such a time,’ he wrote. calls him- or herself ‘idoubtit,’ writing for a website titled ‘Doubtful observations ever made ‘UFOs are a creation of our News.’” It’s not clear whether Newton’s facility with Google failed Oabout UFOs was that of time, and when their time him or his apparent aversion to quoting knowledgeable skep- tics prevented him from identifying “idoubtit,” but the unnamed the late British Fortean author came, they were born.’” “skofftic” Newton quoted is Sharon Hill, who is in fact prominently Hilary Evans in his essay “A Clarke teaches journal- identified as “idoubtit” on the Doubtful News site. Newton rounds Twentieth Century Myth”: ism and media law at Shef- out the section with a mystery-mongering mention of DNA “Yeti” “No anomalous phenome- field Hallam University in results claimed to have come from an extinct polar bear; sadly non has generated so rich an the United Kingdom and for Newton, that too has already been debunked (see “No Reason anomaly-cluster as the fly- to Believe That Sykes’s Yeti-Bear Cryptid Exists” special report writes a monthly column in the July/August 2015 S  I). Skeptics—as well ing saucer. Kenneth Arnold’s for magazine. as less-than-skeptical but knowledgeable Bigfoot researchers— straightforward, uncompli- (British Forteans, for what- can cringe (or laugh) at Newton’s factual errors and straw man cated sighting” was gradu- ever reason, tend to be much arguments, but even casual readers are likely to be disappointed ally embedded in “a sprawl- more skeptical than their by the laundry-list, superficial treatment of Bigfoot information ing aggregate of associated American counterparts.) found in Seeking Bigfoot. Newton’s cursory research and depen- happenings”—cattle muti- dence on Internet-culled lists to fill this book is understandable And unlike some writers who given the pace at which he publishes (about eight books a year lations, crop circles, black dabble in folklore and UFOs, according to his website), but Bigfoot—and cryptozoology—de- helicopters, Men in Black, Clarke understands that serve better. Schiffer Publishing, 2015, 190 pp, $24.95. saucer crashes and saucer when stories parallel folklore, bases, contactees, abductees, it suggests they are fiction not THE WITCH OF LIME STREET: Séance, Se- etc.—“constituting a won- truth. “Folklorists categorize duction, and Houdini in the Spirit World. derfully rich and elaborate David Jaher. Spiritualism was in vogue in invented or false stories as the 1920s, and Sir pro- mythology unmatched in examples of what they call moted the mediumistic powers of Mina Cran- the world’s folklore.” ‘ostension,’ whereby people don, the wife of a surgeon and rising star of This is, I’m sure, what either spontaneously or de- spiritualism who became better known as Clarke means when he says liberately create new stories Margery (“the witch of Lime Street”). A Sci- that UFOs “Conquered the and events that reproduce entific American committee couldn’t debunk World,” and in this book he her, but one of the five members, magician existing lore and legends.” , took Margery on as a personal challenge. This is sets out to understand why. He presents a detailed ar- a narrative account of that time and that endeavor where the Clarke explains this using gument showing how pre- spirit world and Houdini’s skills, reason, and rationality came into another quote from Evans: 1947 science-fiction stories strong conflict. Crown, 2015, 420 pp., $28.00. “Hilary Evans said that most already contained most of of us have never known a the significant themes later —Kendrick Frazier and Benjamin Radford time when there was no such turning up as “actual” UFO thing as a UFO. ‘Yet there claims:

60 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEWS ]

Ockham’s razor suggests that aliens It was quite a turnaround. After a the PSH explains UFOs as “products are not monsters from the Id, or decade acting as a poacher I sud- of our minds: projections of our anxiet- expressions of a collective uncon- denly found myself playing the role scious, let alone travellers from of a gamekeeper. From 2008 I began ies or aspirations, culturally determined another world. They are products working with the staff at Kew to pre- fantasies or hallucinations or new reli- of our imagination and the science pare ten separate tranches of docu- gions in the process of emerging from fiction that has been clogging our ments for release. A total of 227 files the ashes of the old.” Clarke contrasts brains for more than a century. and more than 52,000 pages were eventually scanned and uploaded this with “debunking of the type asso- The book begins largely autobi- to the National Archives web site ciated with Richard Dawkins,” because ographically, describing Clarke’s own where they can be downloaded by the PSH sees the social phenomenon infatuation with UFOs as a youth anyone. of UFOs “as interesting and worthy of growing up in the 1970s. As a teen- This has, perhaps inevitably, brought serious study.” I don’t recall any UFO ager he began investigating local Clarke into a long-standing feud with skeptic suggesting that they are not. UFO sightings and saw problems in Nick Pope, who has made a twenty-year the narratives that others overlooked. career as a big-name UFOlogist out of “During the encounters that followed having worked on the MOD UFO desk my doubts grew and my naïve faith was for three years during the early 1990s. Clarke gives us an interesting challenged to the breaking point.” He But believers in UFO conspiracies re- history of British UFO was surprised to find that UFOlogists, fused to accept that there are no secret, contactees, especially George including some well-known ones, in- bombshell UFO files hidden away. “The stead of welcoming prosaic explana- UFO Truthers, as I now call them, re- King, who claimed to be in tions for sightings, resisted them. One fuse to believe anything unless it has first contact with a space god supposed UFO witness told Clarke, been denied.” called Master Aetherius. when presented with a logical explana- Clarke gives us an interesting history tion, “Look, you can’t take this sighting of British UFO contactees, especially away from me!” George King, who claimed to be in Clarke launches into an overview contact with a space god called Master history of UFOs, not surprisingly con- Aetherius. Noting that seventeen years centrating on the British perspective. after his death King had been deified Given that the PSH sees UFOs as Much of this information is not avail- as a “cosmic avatar” by the leader of the “fantasies or hallucinations” that are able elsewhere for readers in the United church he founded, Clarke remarked, “products of our minds,” the difference States. He shows how observers at the “I could not see why those who claim between the two approaches (PSH and famous UFO “hotspot” at Warminster that flying saucers bring messages from “debunking”) would seem to be largely were easily fooled by simple hoax bal- the gods should be regarded as any less semantic. The PSH seems to amount loons launched from a nearby hill and genuinely held, or unbelievable, than to a polite and respectful way of saying how when this was revealed in a BBC the tenets of any other religion.” He “it’s all in your mind,” suggesting that television program the UFO spotters then presents a discussion of UFOs in there are good reasons for that being refused to accept the explanation. the context of religion, finding many the case. When the British Ministry of De- similarities. However, none of this detracts sig- I spotted a few minor errors, most fence (MOD) began releasing some nificantly from the importance of the UFO-related documents in 1998, probably owing to the still-significant book; it is the best book on UFOs to Clarke was among the first to pore over gulf between American and British appear in a long time, and I encourage them. He was surprised to find how lit- UFOlogy (for example, he places the everyone interested in the subject to tle substance they contained. When the media frenzy over fabulist Bob Lazar’s read it. n United Kingdom passed a freedom of Area 51 claims in Los Angeles instead information act in 2005, Clarke began of Las Vegas)—and I will overlook his requesting UFO-related documents comment that CSICOP/CSI is a “no- Robert Sheaffer’s “Psychic Vibrations” from the Ministry of Defence. In 2007, torious sceptical organization.” column has appeared in the S  Clarke, like most British Forteans, the MOD began a mass-release of re- I for nearly forty years; its high- opts for the “psychosocial hypothe- cords from its UFO desk. lights have been published as a book (Cre- sis” (PSH) to explain UFOs and most The time I had invested researching ate Space, 2011). Sheaffer blogs at www. other Fortean phenomena. He illus- the older files and my contacts with BadUFOs.com, and his website is www. the UFO desk staff made me the trates it with a quote from the British obvious curator for the collection. journalist Bryan Appleyard saying that debunker.com.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 61 Memoir of an Accused Satanist MIKE MORAN

hen it comes to true-crime autobiographies, readers can Wusually expect one or both of Life After Death. By Damien Echols. New York: Penguin Group, the following items within the pages: 2013. ISBN 978-0142180280. 416 pp. Softcover, $11.88. a guilty-pleasure of tabloid sensation- alism surrounding a real tragic event or a commentary on the social factors leading up to the crime and punish- ment with the writer claiming inno- cence (or not). With Damien Echols’s Life After Death, I was hoping for my guilty-pleasure fix in the form of the younger boys (Steve Branch, Michael a room in his grandmother’s trailer: “I small-town murder mystery of which Moore, and Christopher Byers) in an no longer considered myself poor,” he he was convicted, as well as an opin- alleged Satanic ritual. The shaky evi- admits at the start of Chapter 7, “I was ionated commentary on the American dence, the seemingly prejudiced public now in the lap of luxury.” Satanic Panic of the 1980s and early opinion of the Bible Belt town, and the Echols’s memoirs of his teenage 1990s that many believe Echols to absurdity of the devil-cult hysteria led years will bring readers familiar with the have been a victim of. To my surprise, to a national outcry of unprecedented late eighties/early nineties heavy-metal and ultimate delight, Life After Death proportions. Documentaries were culture back to the days of dubbed offers neither true-crime cliché en filmed, books published, and a gallery cassette tapes, Thrasher skateboard masse but instead transcends the genre of celebrities, including Pearl Jam’s magazine, and late-night viewings of with what may be the best true-crime Eddie Vedder, actor Johnny Depp, MTV’s Headbanger’s Ball. Chapter 8 in autobiography ever written. Shunning and Dixie Chick Natalie Maines, got Life After Death offers his vivid recollec- the conventional formats, Echols drifts involved in the case. The WM3 were tion of this era as well as proving that seamlessly through vibrant childhood finally released from prison in 2011 on Echols’s writing talents extend beyond memories, terrifying prison experi- an “Alfred plea” (a deal that allows the those concerning the murder accusa- ences, and poetic outpourings from a defendants to technically plead guilty tion. In it, Damian recounts a night of thoughtful young man who has had while publicly maintaining innocence adolescent years “sneaking out” with many lonely years to contemplate his in return for a resentencing), and al- friend (and future fellow convict) Jason own existence. Though we of the skep- though theories abound, the identity of Baldwin to explore their small town tical community may be initially a the killers remains a mystery. after dark. Damian brings the reader little turned off by Damian’s fervent Echols’s elegant yet unpretentious along for a “night . . . so cold that ev- endorsements of various religions and telling of his life story begins with his erything seemed crystal clear, magikal, pseudoscience (which he piles under earliest memories of an impoverished and a little scary. . . . The feeling of the repeated term magick), he speaks of childhood in the deep South, growing adventure and absolute freedom was these things with such eloquence and up with a dysfunctional and often-tran- amazing” he recollects on page 106. wonder that even us critical-thinking sient set of family members. His early Recounting the boys’ rural explorations types will accept such ideas as fair living conditions are recounted in in the dead of night, as they terrified game for a young man’s soul searching disturbing detail, sounding not much themselves with discussions of ghost in a desperate situation. better than the prison cells he spent stories and creepy local rumors, includ- If you’re unfamiliar with Echols eighteen years in. He describes one ing one where “some kid had claimed and the West Memphis Three (WM3) abode on page 50 as “an honest-to-God to see a dead man hopping back and murder conviction, here’s a quick run- shack . . . no running water or electric- forth across the train tracks on Hallow- down: In West Memphis, Arkan- ity . . . no heat or air conditioner . . . een night” are reminiscent of Stephen sas, in 1994, a trio of impoverished our drinking water came from a well King’s incorporations of early teenage teenage Goth kids (Damien Echols, that crop-dusters regularly sprayed memories into his fictional characters. Jason Baldwin, and Jessie Misskelly) with pesticides.” He later recalls when It’s unsurprising that Damian later were convicted of the murder of three his place of residence was upgraded to admits to a steady diet of King nov-

62 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEWS ] els throughout his life. He even adds: The most eloquent of Echols’s Noble. “Sometime later I saw the movie Stand prose is found in Chapter 17, where he With Life After Death, Damien by Me (based on a King story) and was beautifully blends a daily journal entry Echols manages to go far beyond the overcome with nostalgia because of into an abstract critique of small-town autobiographical, true crime writing as how much it reminded me of us.” Southern intolerance and blandness we know it and instead blind-sides the Despite intentionally leaving much and then into a childhood memory often-predictable genre with a beauti- of the detail of the trial and conviction of a local urban legend. “In this part fully written account of a unique life. to the many other sources on the sub- of the world, all shrines are built to Though we in the critical-thought com- ject, Damien is able to offer alarming honor the great spirit of mediocrity,” munity may be slightly disappointed commentary on the state of the Arkan- Damien writes on page 209. “This is with the lack of Satanic cult-hysteria sas death row system without being too where the calluses on a man’s hands are in Life After Death (the term “Satanic bigger than his conscious, and dreams Panic” isn’t used even once), Echols is preachy. “The people here are all men- are drowned in sweat and tears.” The such a masterful writer that the reader tally defective in ways that range from chapter then drifts ethereally into rem- is not only left satisfied but also craving mild retardation to severe schizophre- iniscence of a West Memphis mass future writings even on subjects outside nia,” he writes on page 280, reflecting panic of Damian’s youth where “people the world of skepticism. n his strongest observational commentary were claiming to have seen a man with on the prison system; he repeatedly as- a dog’s head.” Echols suggests that this serts that not most, but all, inmates he’s hysteria may have laid the foundation Mike Moran is a Baltimore-based co- seen put to death suffer from intellec- for the Satanic anxieties that later led median, writer, and musician. He does tual disabilities. to his arrest, as he goes on to explain: stand-up comedy all over the Balti- more/D.C. area, as well as improv with the I’ve waited for someone to walk “A vague atmosphere of dread and dan- through the door whom I could gerous fear seemed to hover like a fog Baltimore Improv Group and cohosts a have a conversation with, but it just for the next decade.” Though we skep- podcast called Digression Sessions, part doesn’t happen. . . . Most not only tics would want to hear more about the of the Thunder Grunt Podcast Network. are culturally illiterate, but also can dog-man rumors and Satanic cult hys- He also writes a regular column for D.C.’s barely manage to express themselves BrightestYoungThings.com titled BYTi- in English. . . . I’ve never met a pris- teria, the writing is so well-done that it leaves little to complain about, for it’s more. Mike also plays music with Mike Mo- oner with a college education and ran’s 100% Original Cover Band. Find him can count the high school graduates not often you find this caliber of prose on one hand. in the true crime section of Barnes and on Twitter @MikeMoranWould. INBOX ]

down-to-earth chat with Char lie Scientific Celebrity,” the author Dr. Roger Morris Rose on 60 Minutes, there has Declan Fahy lists eight promi- Queensland, Australia certainly been a shift in the way nent scientists who he considers scientists reach the masses (“A to be “The New Celebrity Scien- Good grief, folks. How could Brief History of Scientific Ce- tists.” you have left out E. O. Wilson? lebrity,” July/August 2015). As A notable and regrettable ex- R. W. Loesch social media amplifies their mes- clusion from this list is the En- Big Rapids, Michigan sage, it is only fitting that some of glish physicist and professor of the most brilliant thinkers of our particle physics, Professor Brian Ah, Celebrity! Ah, Science! time enjoy a celebrity spotlight Cox. Cox’s engaging yet informa- Sir Isaac Newton: “I do not that has often been reserved for tive style, the almost inspirational know what I may appear to the athletes, actors, and politicians. feel of his productions, and the world, but to myself I seem to After all, it is through dialogue sheer volume of his media work have been only like a boy play- and debate of great ideas that in the area of the public under- ing on the seashore . . . whilst the they are able to teach us, enter- standing of science, clearly puts great ocean of truth lay all undis- Celebrity Scientists tain us, and inspire us to achieve him head and shoulders above covered before me.” more. those in the author’s list. Fame is fickle, and oh, so Whether it is Stephen Hawk- Michael Aaron Gallagher One can only assume that fleeting! For instance: Crick ing’s guest-starring role on the Syracuse, New York latent Americano-centrism con- and Watson (Watson-Crick as CBS sitcom The Big Bang The- tributed to the glaring admission their model is identified) starred; ory or Neil deGrasse Tyson’s In the article “A Brief History of of Cox from this list. Maurice Wilkins tagged along

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 63 carrying the DNA studies; while I was living at the time in I still have. All in all a very enter- but I must do so now. Steve Rosalind Franklin never had a Manhattan Beach, just south taining lunch! Cuno (“Adverlying: Disliking chance. of Los Angeles International I have seen other strange Advertising from an Informed July 25, 2015, was the nine- Airport (LAX). One morning, sights over the years, all of which Perspective,” July/August 2015) ty-fifth anniversary of Rosalind on my way to school, on a very ended up having a very ordinary, flogs dead horses such as Franklin’s birthday. Although unusual bright sunny day, I saw prosaic explanation: weather bal- mind-control and subliminal ad- she died before the awarding it. A brilliant cigar-shaped ob- loons, unusual planet configu- vertising and ignores the real evil. of the Nobel Prize in 1962, she ject hanging straight ahead of rations, bright fireballs, and the The vast majority of ads are not merits wider recognition—if not me! Recalling some of Leslie’s like. I think the take home from informative or for new products. celebrity—for her cogent con- descriptions, I pulled over and all of this is that one must make They are only for market share in tribution to the structure of the stopped cold. Thought one: turn and document as carefully and saturated markets. They are a way Watson-Crick model. around and get home as fast as as accurately as possible obser- of competing that is of absolutely possible, grab binoculars, cam- no benefit to the consumer. The Clark J. Nichols vations. One should know what eras, and telescope, and get back outrageous sums paid for Super Henniker, New Hampshire observations would be relevant to watch the show. Bad idea. and how to make and record Bowl ads are nothing compared Thought two: how about run- them. Know how to estimate to the costs of price reductions or Declan Fahy responds: ning the block back to a store, angular size and rate of motion quality improvements. No one is ever going to buy a new car be- I thank readers for their thoughtful phone my folks, and have them on the sky, e.g., my fist at arms cause of an ad, but he might be responses. I would just note that bring my stuff here ASAP. I de- length is about 6 degrees. I’d sub- persuaded to buy a Lexus instead my book The New Celebrity Sci- cided to just sit and watch the mit that doing this would take of a Cadillac. That is the real entists, from which I drew my SI show. The object was almost much, if not all, of the mystery function of advertising. Cuno article, aims to analyze the nature blindingly bright, and height to out of such sightings. ignores that fact entirely. and impact of modern scientific length was like a cigar, definitely Again, loved the article. celebrity in a broad sense, and I not a blimp. As I watched, the You can protect yourself selected the eight core scientists to object seemed to drift slowly F. Jack Eastman against puffery and lying—these illuminate vividly the core dimen- to the north, then began fluc- [email protected] things are expected—but there sions of scientific fame. In response tuating in brightness, sort of a is nothing you can do about the to Morris’s letter, I note that the flicker effect, then it went out. lack of real customer concern and last few pages of my book focus on There was still something there, Scott Joplin’s the blow against honest compe- Brian Cox, “as a newer iteration now moving somewhat faster to Treemonisha tition that is the only thing that of the celebrity scientist, as he was the north. Well, somewhat dis- makes capitalism function. Skepticism covers a lot of ground! a (minor) star in the music world appointing, nothing more than With great pleasure (and a bit George Cunha before becoming a major star in the a common airplane! It was very San Rafael, California scientific world.” unusual to have a bright sunny of surprise) I read Bruce A. Thy- er’s excellent article on Scott Jo- morning; usually there were the In response to Steve Cuno’s oily, plin’s Treemonisha in your July/ ever-present low clouds. The feeble defense of advertising in August issue. sun-object-me angle was just his article, “Adverlying,” I would Since I bought the dou- Being a Good ‘UFO’ right to get a brilliant glint off the like to point readers toward Paul ble-CD in a lavishly equipped Observer plane’s wings, and since it was Baran and Paul Sweezy’s Monop- heading for LAX it was coming edition (hardcover illustrated Klaus Brasch’s article on flying oly Capital, cited in an article by almost straight at me, explaining book with 100+ pages) four years saucers in the latest S  Hannah Holleman et al. in The the very slow transverse speed. ago (through the Paragon Rag- I (“Do We Really Want Monthly Review of April 2009 It seemed the show went on for time Orchestra online), I have (page 17). “The greatest damage to Believe in UFOs?” July/Au- heard the work several times, but gust 2015) hit a responsive chord many minutes, but since I made done by advertising,” Baran and it to my class on time, the whole never heard about it. Before now. Sweezy wrote, with me. Many, many years ago My hope is great that it might a family friend gave me a copy thing wasn’t more than maybe reach a wider circulation—better . . . is precisely that it of Adamski and Leslie’s Flying five minutes, tops. late than never. incessantly demonstrates Saucers Have Landed for my Being terminally smitten am- And let me put in a small the prostitution of men fourteenth birthday, thinking, ateur astronomers, several of us correction to Thyer’s text: The and women who lend their no doubt, comic relief. I found would make many trips to local world-class observatories in- Sting’s signature-tune was not intellects, their voices, it quite entertaining and, yes, their artistic skills to pur- my BS detection alarm did keep cluding, of course, Palomar. On “Maple Leaf Rag,” but the one of those trips, we stopped equally beautiful and listenable poses in which they them- going off. At the time (and still), selves do not believe, and I was a dyed-in-the-wool amateur at Palomar Gardens Tavern for “The Entertainer.” Go listen to lunch and had a very interest- Joplin—and get wise! that it teaches “the essen- astronomer and in all my time tial meaninglessness of ing and entertaining talk with under the stars I never saw any- Frits Schjøtt all creations of the mind: George Adamski himself. Very, thing unusual or unexplainable. Svendborg, Denmark words, images, and ideas.” very entertaining to say the least, Leslie’s chapter (Book 1) was The real danger from largely a bunch of sightings/case and yes our BS detectors did Adverlying advertising is that it helps histories. They were interesting, work overtime. George was kind to shatter and ultimately but almost all of them were quite enough to sign my copy of Flying It is not often that I disagree destroy our most precious hard to swallow. Saucers, which amazingly enough entirely with an article in SI, non-material possessions:

64 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer the confidence in the exis- Convert Cognition World, need to fix this now by tion by Orser to use the term using alternate energy sources accept rather than believe when tence of meaningful pur- “Covert Cognition: My So- and buying carbon credits is not poses of human activity Called Near-Death Experience” discussing topics such as evolu- convincing. We are skeptical and the respect for the by Stephanie Savage (July/Au- tion (Letters to the Editor, July/ that this is a worthy effort while integrity of man. gust 2015) reminded me of the August 2015). Orser was not the rest of the world is a smoking Moreover, to satisfy movie Jacob’s Ladder. Being an suggesting that such a change the needs of advertising, atheist, I interpreted the movie furnace of pollution. In Beijing, would result in people chang- China, you cannot see your hand some of the brightest and in a secular sense. “How about ing their mind about evolution in front of your face. The pro- most talented minds in that; he was dreaming all that but rather that the use of accept our nation devote their stuff!” I said to a coworker who posed solutions are like shutting a tap next to Niagara Falls to when we are talking about sci- lives to the task of con- had also been at the movie. He entifically based hy potheses or vincing people to pur- looked at me strangely and said, save water. theories helps make the distinc- chase a particular beer or “He was in purgatory!” Brian Hulse tion between these discussions pain reliever; this is an Maybe this was the correct Jackson Heights, and those that are not based in irrational use of human interpretation of the movie, and New York talent in a world where the the title makes it seem so. Nev- science clearer. So it makes sense need for it is immense. ertheless, Savage’s coma-dream to say, “I believe in god” but not Just one comment. Climatolo- makes me think of this movie. that “I believe in Newton’s three In short, the sales effort is a gists and other physical scientists laws of motion.” And as Orser are well aware of the many past deeply dubious enterprise that Ernest Field said, the use of believe implies Cleveland, Ohio climate fluctuations. It is their inflicts great damage upon our that somehow if I change my societies. “The trouble,” Baran research that discovered all those Taking Exception past cycles. The current warming, mind the situation will change. and Sweezy observed nearly fifty It will not. Scientific hypotheses years ago, “is that advertising of about ‘Deniers’ which carries the distinct signa- ture of human causation and is in change with new information, necessity promotes conformity I take exception with the pre- accord with scientific predictions, not because someone changes to norms that, by any rational sumption that those who dis- is a disturbing upward trend su- his or her belief. standard, are worthless or hu- agree with the global warming perimposed on all those other well- David E. Anderson, Ph.D. manly destructive.” movement and its agenda are known natural cycles. deniers of climate science (John Meadville, Pennsylvania Louis S. Bedrock —Editor Roselle, New Jersey Cook, “A ‘Taking Back Skep- ticism’ Campaign and Online [FEEDBACK Course,” July/August 2015). Toronto’s Lamentable Steve Cuno responds: It is obvious that mankind The letters column is a forum on mat- Mr. Cunha asserts that advertis- has had an impact on climate Course ters raised in previous issues. Letters ing increases prices, a myth that since we discovered fire, and I am a regular reader of your should be no longer than 225 words. Due to the volume of letters we receive, merits a detailed follow-up article most dramatically since the start magazine and appreciate the not all can be published. Send letters to expose the folly of the argument. of the Industrial Era. It is the work you do on a regular basis as email text (not attachments) to Doomsday extrapolation into to defend science and the sci- The fact of the matter is that by [email protected]. In the subject line, helping effect economies of scale, the future that we are skeptical entific method. I would like to about, and the proposed solu- provide your surname and informative successful advertising can actually draw your attention to what tions. identification, e.g.: “Smith Letter on drive pricing downward—par- is happening at the University Jones evolution art icle.” In clude your Global climate has cyclical ticularly when companies compete of Toronto, where a course is name and ad dress at the end of the let- variation that the global warm- being offered that has no place for customers—and rarely if ever ter. You may also mail your letter to the ing warners ignore. From their in a institution like a university: drives it upward. editor to 944 Deer Dr. NE, Albuquerque, data merges “proving” a human “Alternative Health,” taught by NM 87122. Like it or not, companies ad- cause of the warming you can a homeopath. vertise to generate sales, grow deduce that without these fac- I am appalled by this course market share, increase revenues, tors, they think the rest would being offered and by the re- fatten the bottom line, boost mar- be flat, unchanging. This is sponse of the university when ket cap, and provide a return to clearly not the case, as the cycles complaints were raised. Please shareowners. That’s a concept of global ice ages and mini-ice visit this site for more detailed fundamental to capitalism. ages attest. information on this subject: Along the way, advertising The warners also ignore the http://tinyurl.com/pm28rev. also largely supports the cost of ability of the Earth to self-heal, Paulo Maia mass media—television, radio, absorbing one-time climatic Mississauga, Ontario impacts, like Krakatoa and the newspapers, magazines, and Canada web sites. dinosaur-killing meteor impact. My concern is when advertis- The Earth will recover without Accept vs. Believe ing crosses ethical lines and shades our help, once humans have the truth. That has the potential for passed on or left for other places. I believe that Reichardt and causing real injury to consumers. The idea that we, the Western Saari misinterpreted the sugges-

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2015 65 [ THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD, EDITOR

SKEPTICAL ANNIVERSARIES by

November 1, 1755: The Great Lisbon Earthquake kills over 100,000 on All Saints Day and inspires many subsequent works of theodicy. November 4, 1985: Over 1,500 Scientologists crowd the Los Angeles County Courthouse in an unsuccessful attempt to block the release of the secret “Operating Thetan Level III” materials. The story of Xenu is printed in the L.A. Times the next day. November 5, 1975: In the book Fire in the Sky, Travis Walton claims he was abducted by a UFO in a national forest in Arizona on this day. November 9, 1990: A skeptical panel on Satanic Ritual Abuse at a psychiatric conference in Chicago begins to change professional opinions of what is now known to have been a moral panic. November 16, 2005: The TV program South Park airs an episode that recounts many of the secret beliefs of Scientology (such as the Xenu story) with the caption “This Is What Scientologists Actually Believe.” November 18, 1970: Linus Pauling claims megadoses of Vitamin C are effective against the common cold in a public lecture. He publishes a book on this topic later that year. December 5, 1945: A training flight of U.S. Navy airplanes known as Flight 19 is lost in an accident, later becoming one of the key incidents of the Bermuda Triangle legend. December 20, 2005: The ruling in Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District ends the practice of mandating the teaching of “” in public schools in the United States. December 26, 1980: A UFO incident called “Britain’s Roswell” occurrs in Rendlesham Forest starting in the early hours of this day. December 26, 1985: In the book Communion, Whitley Streiber claims he was abducted by aliens on this night.

Tim Farley is the creator of the website whatstheharm.net. and blogs at skeptools.com. He is a past fellow of the James Randi Educational Foundation.

66 Volume 39 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Scientific and Technical Consultants CENTERS FOR INQUIRY www.centerforinquiry.net/about/branches Gary Bauslaugh, Univ. of California at Berkeley I.W. Kelly, Tim Printy, writer and editor, prof. of psychology, Univ. of Saskatch ewan, amateur astronomer, UFO skeptic, former Luis Alfonso Gámez, Victoria, B.C., Canada Canada Navy nuclear reactor operator/division chief, TRANSNATIONAL science journalist, Bilbao, Spain Manchester, NH 3965 Rensch Road, Amherst, NY 14228 Richard E. Berendzen, Richard H. Lange, Sylvio Garattini, Tel.: (716) 636-4869 astronomer, Washington, DC MD, Mohawk Valley Physician Daisie Radner, director, Mario Negri Pharmacology AUSTIN Health Plan, Schenectady, NY prof. of philosophy, SUNY Buffalo Martin Bridgstock, Institute, , Italy PO Box 202164, Austin, TX 78720-2164 senior lecturer, School of Science, William M. London, Robert H. Romer, Susan Gerbic, Tel.: (512) 919-4115 Griffith Univ., Brisbane, Australia California State Univ., Los Angeles prof. of physics, Amherst College founder and leader of the Guerilla Skepti- CHICAGO Richard Busch, cism on Wikipedia (GSoW) project Rebecca Long, Karl Sabbagh, [email protected] magician/mentalist, Pittsburgh, PA nuclear engineer, president of Geor gia journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England Laurie Godfrey, INDIANAPOLIS Council Against Health Fraud, Atlanta, GA Shawn Carlson, anthropologist, Univ. of Massachusetts Robert J. Samp, 350 Canal Walk, Suite A, Indianapolis, IN 46202 Society for Amateur Scientists, John R. Mashey, assistant prof. of education and Tel.: (317) 423-0710 Gerald Goldin, East Greenwich, RI computer scientist/executive (Bell Labs, then medicine, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison LOS ANGELES mathematician, Rutgers Univ., NJ Roger B. Culver, Silicon Valley), analyst of climate-change Steven D. Schafersman, 4773 Hollywood Blvd., Hollywood, CA 90027 Donald Goldsmith, prof. of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. denial, contributor to DeSmogBlog and asst. prof. of geology, Miami Univ., OH Tel.: (323) 666-9797 astronomer; president, Interstellar Media Skeptical Science, MICHIGAN Felix Ares de Blas, Chris Scott, Alan Hale, Portola Valley, CA 3777 44th Street SE, Grand Rapids, MI 49512 prof. of computer science, statistician, London, England astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space Univ. of Basque, San Sebastian, Spain Thomas R. McDonough, Tel.: (616) 698-2342 Research, Alamogordo, NM astrophysicist, Pasadena, CA Stuart D. Scott Jr., NEW YORK CITY Nahum J. Duker, associate prof. of anthropology, Clyde F. Herreid, 33-29 28th St. Astoria, NY 11106 assistant prof. of pathology, James E. McGaha, SUNY Buffalo prof. of biology, SUNY Buffalo astronomer, USAF pilot (ret.) SAN FRANCISCO Temple Univ. Erwin M. Segal, Sharon Hill, email: [email protected] Taner Edis, Joel A. Moskowitz, prof. of psychology, SUNY Buffalo geologist, writer, researcher, creator and TAMPA BAY Division of Science/Physics director of medical psychiatry, Calabasas editor of the Doubful News blog Mental Health Services, Los Angeles Carla Selby, 4011 S. Manhattan Ave. #139, Tampa, FL 33611-1277 Truman State Univ. anthropologist /archaeologist Tel.: (813) 505-7013 Gabor Hrasko, Barbara Eisenstadt, Matthew C. Nisbet, chairman of the European Council of Skepti- Steven N. Shore, WASHINGTON, DC psychologist, educator, clinician, associate professor of communication cal Organizations (ECSO), president studies, public policy, and urban affairs at prof. of astrophysics, Univ. of Pisa, Italy 1020 19th Street., NW, Suite 425 East Greenbush, NY Washington, DC 20036 of Hungarian Skeptics Northeastern University Waclaw Szybalski, William Evans, tel.: (202) 629-2403 Michael Hutchinson, Julia Offe, professor, McArdle Laboratory, Univ. prof. of communication, ARGENTINA author; SKEPTICAL INQUIRER neurobiologist, science journalist, creator of Wisconsin–Madison Center for Creative Media Buenos Aires, Argentina representative, Europe of German Science Slam Sarah G. Thomason, Bryan Farha, [email protected] Philip A. Ianna, prof. of linguistics, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA prof. of behavioral studies in John W. Patterson, www.cfiargentina.org assoc. prof. of astronomy, prof. of materials science and education, Oklahoma City Univ. Tim Trachet, CANADA Univ. of Virginia en gineering, Iowa State Univ. journalist and science writer, honorary John F. Fischer, 55 Eglinton Ave. East, Suite 307 William Jarvis, chairman of SKEPP, forensic analyst, Orlando, FL James R. Pomerantz, Toronto, Ontario, M4P 1G8, Canada prof. of health promotion and public health, prof. of psychology, Rice Univ. David Willey, CHINA Eileen Gambrill, Loma Linda Univ., School of Public Health physics instructor, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA China Research Institute for Science Popularization, prof. of social welfare, Gary P. Posner, MD, Tampa, FL NO. 86, Xueyuan Nanlu Haidian Dist., Beijing, 100081 China Tel.: +86-10-62170515 EGYPT Affiliated Organizations | United States 44 Gol Gamal St., Agouza, Giza, Egypt FRANCE ALABAMA D.C./MARYLAND MISSOURI Association for Rational Thought (ART) Dr. Henri Broch, Universite of Nice, Faculte des Alabama Skeptics, Alabama. Emory National Capital Area Skeptics NCAS, Skeptical Society of St. Louis (SSSL) Cincinnati. Roy Auerbach, president. Sciences, Parc Valrose, 06108, Nice cedex 2, Kimbrough. Tel.: 205-759-2624. 3550 Maryland, D.C., Virginia. D.W. “Chip” St. Louis, Missouri. Michael Blanford, Tel: (513)-731-2774, Email: raa@cinci. Water melon Road, Apt. 28A, Northport, Denman. Tel.: (240) 670-6227. Email: President. Email: [email protected]. rr.com. PO Box 12896, Cin cinnati, OH France Tel.: +33-492-07-63-12 AL 35476 [email protected]. PO Box 8461, Silver Spring, 2729 Ann Ave., St. Louis, MO 63104 45212. www.cincinnati skeptics.org GERMANY MD 20907-8428 http://www.ncas.org www.skepticalstl.org Arheilger Weg 11, 64380 Rossdorf, Germany ARIZONA OREGON Tel.: +49-6154-695023 Tucson Skeptics Inc. Tucson, AZ. James FLORIDA St. Joseph Skeptics Oregonians for Science and Reason Mc Gaha. Email:[email protected]. Tampa Bay Skeptics (TBS) Tampa Bay, P.O. Box 8908 (O4SR) Oregon. Jeanine DeNoma, INDIA 5100 N. Sabino Foot hills Dr., Tucson, Florida. Rick O’Keefe, contact person. St. Joseph MO, 64508-8908 president. Tel.: (541) 745-5026; Email: 46 Masi garh, New Friends Colony New Delhi 110025 AZ 85715 Tel.: 813-505-7013; Email: NEVADA [email protected]; 39105 Military Rd., [email protected]. c/o O’Keefe, Tel.: 91-9868010950 Phoenix Area Skeptics Society (PASS) Reno Skeptical Society, Inc., Monmouth, OR 97361. www.04SR.org 4011 S. Manhattan Ave. #139, Tampa, LONDON http://phoenixskeptics.org Brad Lutts, President. PENNSYLVANIA FL 33611-1277. www.tampabayskept Email: [email protected] Tel.: (775) 335-5505; Philadelphia Association for Critical Conway Hall, 25 Red Lion Square, ics.org Email: [email protected]. 18124 London WC1R 4RL, England Phoenix Skeptics, Phoenix, AZ. Michael Think ing (PhACT), Bob Glickman Pres- ILLINOIS Wedge Parkway #1052 Reno, Nevada NEPAL Stack pole, P.O. Box 60333, Phoenix, ident. 653 Garden Road Glenside PA Rational Examination Association 89511. www.RenoSkeptics.org Humanist Association of Nepal, AZ 85082 19038. 215-885-2089 E-mail: Presi- of Lincoln Land (REALL) Illinois. Bob NEW MEXICO [email protected]. Website: www.phact.org PO Box 5284, Kathmandu Nepal CALIFORNIA Ladendorf, Chairman. Tel.: 217-546- New Mexicans for Science and Reason TENNESSEE Tel.: +977-1-4413-345 Sacramento Organization for Rational 3475; Email: [email protected]. PO (NMSR) New Mexico. David E. Thomas, NEW ZEALAND Thinking (SORT) Sacramento, CA. Ray Rationalists of East Tennessee, East Box 20302, Springfield, IL 62708 www. President. Tel.: 505-869-9250; Email: email: [email protected] Spangenburg, co-founder. Tel.: 916-978- Ten nessee. Carl Ledenbecker. Tel.: reall.org [email protected]. PO Box 1017, 0321; Email: [email protected]. PO Box (865)-982-8687; Email: Aletall@aol. NIGERIA Chicago Skeptics Jennifer Newport, Peralta, NM 87042. www.nmsr.org 2215, Carmichael, CA 95609-2215 http:// com. 2123 Stony brook Rd., Louis ville, PO Box 25269, Mapo, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria contact person. Email: chicagoskeptics@ home.comcast.net/~kitray2/site/ NEW YORK TN 37777 Tel.: +234-2-2313699 gmail.com. www.chicagoskeptics.com New York City Skeptics Michael Feldman, PERU Bay Area Skeptics (BAS) San Fran- TEXAS LOUISIANA president. PO Box 5122 New York, NY cisco—Bay Area. Eugenie C. Scott, North Texas Skeptics NTS Dallas/Ft D. Casanova 430, Lima 14, Peru Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational 10185. www.nycskeptics.org President. 1218 Miluia St., Berkeley, CA Worth area, John Blanton, Secretary. email: [email protected] Inquiry and Scientific Methods 94709. Email: [email protected]. www. Tel.: (972)-306-3187; Email: skeptic@ POLAND (BR-PRISM) Louisiana. Marge Schroth. Central New York Skeptics (CNY Skeptics) BASkeptics.org ntskeptics.org. PO Box 111794, Carroll- Lokal Biurowy No. 8, 8 Sapiezynska Sr., Tel.: 225-766-4747. 425 Carriage Way, Syracuse. Lisa Goodlin, President. Tel: ton, TX 75011-1794. www.ntskeptics.org 00-215, Warsaw, Poland Independent Investigations Group (IIG), Baton Rouge, LA 70808 (315) 636-6533; Email: info@cnyskeptics. Center for Inquiry–Los Angeles, 4773 org, cnyskeptics.org PO Box 417, Fayett- VIRGINIA ROMANIA MICHIGAN Hollywood Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90027. ville, NY 13066 The James Randi Educational Fundatia Centrul pentru Constiinta Critica Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE Michi- Foun dation. James Randi, Director. Tel.: (40)-(O)744-67-67-94 Tel.: 323-666-9797. www.iighq.com OHIO gan. Lorna J. Simmons, Contact person. 2941 Fairview Park Drive, Suite 105 email: [email protected] Sacramento Skeptics Society, Sacra- Tel.: 734-525-5731; Email: Skeptic31 Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry Falls Church, VA 22042 RUSSIA mento. Terry Sandbek, President. 4300 @aol.com. 31710 Cowan Road, Apt. (CORI) Central Ohio. Charlie Hazlett, Email: [email protected] Auburn Blvd. Suite 206, Sacramento CA 103, West land, MI 48185-2366 President. Tel.: 614-878-2742; Email: Telephone: 571-318-6530 Dr. Valerii A. Kuvakin, 119899 Russia, Moscow, 95841. Tel.: 916 489-1774. Email: terry@ [email protected]. PO Box 282069, Vorobevy Gory, Moscow State Univ., Tri-Cities Skeptics, Michi gan. Dr. Gary sandbek.com Columbus, OH 43228 Science & Reason, Hampton Rds., Philosophy Department Peterson. Tel.: 989-964-4491; Virginia. Lawrence Weinstein, Old SENEGAL San Diego Asso ciation for Rational Inquiry e-mail: [email protected]. Dominion Univ.-Physics Dept., Norfolk, (SDARI) President: Tom Pickett. Email: www.tcskeptics.blogspot.com VA 23529 PO Box 15376, Dakar – Fann, Senegal Cleveland Skeptics Joshua Hunt, Tel.: +221-501-13-00 [email protected]. Program/ Co-Organizer, www.clevelandskeptics.org general information 619-421-5844. WASHINGTON www.sdari.org. Postal ad dress: PO Box 623, MINNESOTA South Shore Skeptics (SSS) Cleveland Seattle Skeptics La Jolla, CA 92038-0623 St. Kloud Extraordinary Claim Psychic and counties. Jim Kutz. Tel.: 440 942- www.seattleskeptics.com Teaching Investigating Community 5543; Email: [email protected]. PO CONNECTICUT (SKEPTIC) St. Cloud, Minne sota. Jerry Box 5083, Cleveland, OH 44101 www. New England Skeptical Society (NESS) Mertens. Tel.: 320-255-2138; Email: southshoreskeptics.org New England. Steven Novella M.D., Presi- [email protected]. Jerry Mer- dent. Tel.: 203-281-6277; Email: board@ tens, Psychology Department, 720 4th theness.com. 64 Cobblestone Dr., Ham- Ave. S, St. Cloud State Univ., St. Cloud, den, CT 06518 www.theness.com MN 56301

C Y E The organizations listed above have aims similar to those of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry but are independent and autonomous. N I R T U E Q Representatives of these organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSI. Please send updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703, Amherst NY 14226-0703. R F O R I N International affiliated organizations listed at www.csicop.org.

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