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Renewable Energy  to Every Investor’S Astonishment, in 2014 , Half of the Global New Installed Capacities Went to Renewable Energy

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Renewable Energy  to Every Investor’S Astonishment, in 2014 , Half of the Global New Installed Capacities Went to Renewable Energy 1 Taiwan and France Smart Grid Exchange Symposium Taiwan’s Energy & Smart Grid Development Perspective Prepared by Dr. CHEN, Yenhaw Presented by Prof. TSAI, MenShen Taiwan Smart Grid Industry Association 9, May, 2017 2 Agenda 1. The Global Energy Supply and GHGs Reduction Trend 2. Taiwan's Energy Supply and Current Status of GHGs Reduction 3. Taiwan's New Energy Policy & Implementation Plan 4. The Smart Grid Technology Development in Taiwan 3 I. The Global Energy Supply and GHGs Reduction Trend 4 The 21th Conference of United Nations Framework Exceed 2 ℃ Convention on Climate Change, 2015 Never Ever 3 ℃ Getting Back The agreement sets out a global action plan to put the world on track to avoid 2 ℃ dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C. 1 ℃ The Paris Climate Change Agreement entered into force on 4th Nov. 2016. Content Content The target of keeping the rise in temperature is The developed countries will continue below 2°C and should aim for 1.5°C。 to support climate action to reduce Long-term Emissions should peak as soon as possible and emissions and build resilience to Goal the countries will aim to achieve carbon climate change impacts in developing neutrality in the second half of the century. Support countries. In 2018, Parties will collectively take stock of Developed countries intend to continue countries’ emissions reductions, and then update their existing collective goal to mobilise their NDCs or submit new ones by 2020. USD 100 billion per year by 2020 and After 2020, a regular “Global Stocktake” will take extend this until 2025. Review place every five years starting in 2023 to review all Decides on the continuation of the Mechanism aspects of Agreement implementation, including Mechanism Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss mitigation, adaptation, finance and support. for Loss and and Damage associated with Climate Parties will then submit new NDCs every five Damage Change Impacts, following the review in years, informed by these Global Stocktakes. 2016; 資料來源：United Nations FCCC/CP/2015/L.9 (2015)；台經院整理 5 The Global Development of Renewable Energy To every investor’s astonishment, in 2014 , half of the global new installed capacities went to renewable energy. Renewable energy has become a mainstream energy. Due to the strong carbon reduction policies in international community, it is projected that, from 2015 to 2040, 60% of the electricity investment will directly link to the renewable energy. The leading countries will be China, the EU, the US and India. Renewable energy will continuously take the dominant position. Source: 2015 world energy outlook,IEA, REN21 2015 6 The Global Energy Transition is Ongoing Due to the carbon reduction policies eagerly adopted among international communities, together with the trend that the decline of costs in renewable energy, mainly Solar PV and Wind Power, the global energy transition is ongoing. To increase the share of renewable energy, each country expects the reinforcement of the application among demand side management, renewable energy, storage and smart grid, as well as establishes the regional system of smart energy management and supply. It is every country’s common will to promote the necessary technology of the energy transition both pragmatically and economically, to reach final goal. 6 Source: Gou-Chung Chi, Yenhaw Chen, The Role of Smart Grid to Constructing Green Energy Supply System in Taiwan, TIER, 2017 7 II. Taiwan's Energy Supply and Current Status of GHGs Reduction 8 Current Power System in Taiwan Nuclear Power Plant 1(127) Nuclear Power Plant 2 (197) Fire Power Plant in Linkou (90+240) Linkou Fire Power (200) Large centralized power system Guoguang Fire Changsheng Fire Power (48) Power (90) Shenao Fire Power (40+160) Datan Fire Power Source of power: thermal(natural gas, coal, oil) , (87+351) Nuclear Power Plant 4 (270) Xintao Fire Power (60) nuclear power, hydro, renewable energy. Tongxiao Fire Power (170) Power pumped and stored during non-peak hours Taichung Fire Power (523) Natural gas-based power generation to support Xingneng Fire Heping Fire Power (130) Power (49) Daguan Power power consumption during peak hours Changhua Coastal Industrial Station Park Fire Power (160) Mailiao Fire Xibao Water Power (7) Centralized load, growing demand for electricity on a Power (180) Mingtan Power Station Jiahui Fire Power yearly basis (67) Nuclear Power Plant Senba Fire Power Fire Power Plant (98) Xikou Water Power (1) Water Power Plant Year 2005 2010 2014 2020 (F) 2025 (F) Ultra-high voltage transformer station Xingda Fire Power Primary station Load during peak (423) 30,943 33,023 34,821 37,377 39,529 Ultra-high voltage transmission hours (MW) Southern Taiwan line Fire Power (111) Primary transmission line Dalin Fire Power Independent power supplier Source: 2005 ~ 2014 Energy Statistics, Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs (240) Ratio of source of generated power: Nuclear Power Fire power (79%) , nuclear power (17.5%) , renewable energy (3.5%) Plant 3 (190) 9 Installed Capacity and Power Generation Mix in Taiwan Power supply in Taiwan is mainly supported by fire power plants, among which coal-fired power plants are the majority. Power generated by coal-fired power plants in 2015 accounted for 44.58% of the overall power supply, followed by 31.38% from gas-fired power plants then 14.13% from nuclear power plants. Ratios of different types of power supply Gross Capacity Power generated Power generation in Taiwan in 2015 installed factor by TaiPower cost of TaiPower 2015 Wind Hydraulic Biomass, capacity (%) (100 million kWh (NT$/kWh) Power, (including 0.14% Waste, (GW) of electricity Solar 0.59% convention 1.26% Coal-Fired Power Plant 16.8 88.87 1,150.16 1.21 Power, al and Gas-Fired Power Plant 16.13 46 809.56 3.18 0.34% pumped- storage) Nuclear Oil Power Plant 3.7 24 120.74 4.03 2.91% Power, Nuclear Power Plant 5.1 94 364.71 1.15 14.13% PV 0.8 12 8.76 9.44 Coal, Wind power 0.6 32 15.25 2.50 44.58% Hydroelectric Oil, 4.68% Renewabl power (including 4.7 24 1.70 e energy routine and 78.62 pumping/storage) Gas, Biomass 0.1 22 -- 31.38% Waste 0.6 55 3.57 -- Total 48.7 -- 2,580 1.95 Source: 2015 Energy Statistics, Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, sorted out by the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research 10 National Energy Demand Trends in the Future Taiwan’s Energy consumption can be divided into seven sectors, which are: energy sector own use, industrial, transportation, agricultural,services, residential and non-energy consuming sector. In 2014, the industrial accounted for 37.73% and became the primary consumption sector. Followed by the transportation sector (11.63%), the services sector (10.92%) and the residential sector (10.78%). It is estimated that Taiwan’s energy demand will grow on average due to the improvement of the living quality in the future as well as the value upgrade of the industry. % MW 35 50,000 Department Contents 29.4 29.4 45,000 28.8 28.5 It is estimated that the annual energy demand will grow 0.81% on average 30 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.1 27.3 27 27.3 27.6 between 2013 and 2030. 26.3 26.4 26.7 40,000 24.8 25.2 For the steel industry, electricity consumption accounts for a majority while for 24.4 Industrial 25 35,000 the petrochemical industry, natural gas grows the most quickly. For the 30,000 electronic, electrical, and mechanical (EEM) industries, on the other hand, 20 primary consumption of energy comes from electricity. 25,000 It is estimated that the annual energy demand will grow 1.54% on average 15 20,000 between 2013 and 2030. Transportation Taiwan's Percentage of Electricity consumption The demand for automobile gasoline is the biggest while the growth in the 10 15,000 demand for electricity is the fastest. Railway electrification is the trend. Peak Load 10,000 It is estimated that the annual energy demand will grow 0.85% on average for 5 線性(Taiwan's Percentage of Electricity consumption) household and 1.895% on average for business between 2013~2030. 5,000 Residential and 線性(Peak Load) The demand for electricity is the hugest while the growth in natural gas is the services 0 0 fastest, demonstrating the generally improved economic growth and quality of 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 family life. 10 資料來源：台灣經濟研究院繪製 11 Taiwan Energy-saving and Carbon Reduction Goals and Current Strategies In June 2015, the Legislative Yuan approved the "Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act" stipulating that the greenhouse gas emission has to drop below 50% of the 2005 level by 2050. Most nuclear power units that are currently operating were built in the 1970s and the 1980s. Their decommissioning will peak between 2020 and 2030. Once they are decommissioned, both safety and environmental The existing reduction proposal helps only achieve impacts will be major challenges. As such, it is necessary to prepare for a rainy day. short-term goals. To fulfill the 2020 goal, it is required It is worth discussing how to make up for the electricity supply gap caused by to apply additional reduction proposals. Unit: million tons decommissioning of the nuclear power units. Current proposals at the Bureau and Reduction outcome in 2020 2026: the Ministry 160,000 2023 Decommissioning of 450,000 2019 Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plant 2 402,896 Increase in energy efficiency 140,000 of Nuclear Power 400,000 76.1 Plant 1 by 2.0% each year 350,000 120,000 2024: Domestic國內能源消費 Energy 377,293 Extended use of natural gas 16.0 2020: 300,000 Consumption(1000KLOE) 100,000 340,275 (1000KLOE) Promotion of renewable energy 5.2 250,000 2010: 2025 Decommissioning of 80,000 2005: Commissioning of Nuclear Power 261,549 Nuclear Power Plant 3 2000: 257,056 200,000 Plant 4 and decommissioning of 28.7 60,000219,091 Nuclear Power Plant 1 150,000 83 million tons need to be reduced by 2020 and 164 Increased power generation 40,000 二氧化碳排放量(千 2.8 million tons need to be reduced by 2025.
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