U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe End of an Era?

1. U.S.S.R. AND EASTERN EUROPE END OF AN ERA?

T WAS AN UNBELIEVABLE scene: thousands of East and West Gennans Icelebrating together in the early hours of November 10, 1989, many atop the Berlin Wall chipping away pieces of it as souvenirs of the night the East Gennan government lifted all re strictions on travel to the West. Nearly 200 East Gennans had been shot trying to cross that wall since it was built in 1961. It was not the first amazing picture to emerge from Eastern Europe. Ever since 1985, when Mikhail S. Gor bachev came to power in the Soviet Union, the headlines coming out of Moscow have made jaded Soviet watchers sit up and take notice. Instead of Communist propaganda, they were reading uncensored complaints about the Soviet system by Soviet citizens. By 1987, Gorbachev's ambitious plans for restructuring the Soviet economy and democratizing the political system had optimistic Western analysts predicting radical change in the U.S.S.R. By the end of 1989, even many diehard skeptics were confessing to as tonishment. The first contested elec tions in Soviet history had been held in March , complete with noisy campaign ing and upset losses by some of the party 's handpicked candidates. At the new Congress of People's Deputies, delegates criticized one major govern ment or Communist party institution after another- including Gorbachev ReutersIBcttmann Newspholos himself-while an estimated 200 mil Dismantling the Iron Curtain: Hungarian soldiers on the Austrian border, May /989. lion Soviets sat glu ed to their sets watching the televised proceedings. By Hungary's Communist party dis viet leader Gorbachev's personal im the end of the first session of the Con solved itself two months later, declared portance to all of these changes. Skepti gress, the U.S .S.R. had its first embry the country a republic and rewrote its cism about his motives has given way onic opposition group, the Inter constitution. Hungary had already to a widespread sense that why he is Regional Group of People's Deputies. started tearing down the barbed-wire encouraging reform matters less than In Eastern Europe (see map, p. I I) Iron Curtain along its border with neu how those reforms are transforming the the Communist bloc's first non-Com tral Austria in May; East Germany U.S.S.R., Eastern Europe- and re la munist government took office in Po completed the job six months later. tions with the U.S. "Today," says For land in August 1989. It is impossible to overestimate So- eign Policy editor Charles William 6 GREAT DECISIONS 1990

Maynes, "the debate is not about because of inadequate roads, tran sporta to energize the Soviet people and enlist whether he is for real, but about tion and storage facilities. Only heavy their help. This required changing the whether he will succeed, whether we government subsidies keep food prices "party line" which for years claimed can, or should, help him, and most of low, and chronic shortages of even the that all was well, suppressing facts that all, whether even if he di sappears to most basic daily necessities are a fact of proved otherwise. Gorbachev believes morrow the refanns that he has initiated Soviet life. the "discrepancy between the reality can ever be rolled back." Outside of military and space pro and the proclaimed policy" had "bred The New York Times has pro grams, most goods and services pro public passivity and di sbelief in the nounced the cold-war era ended; others duced in the U.S.S.R. are of poor qual slogans being proclaimed." This situ think such a watershed is at least within ity and outmoded. (In a single month, ation had to be changed before he could reach and are calling on the U.S. to ad exploding Soviet-made televisions restart the stalled economy. With just its Soviet policy accordingly. Still caused 90 apartment fires.) Industrial glasnost, meaning roughly openness or others warn that Gorbachev's political equipment and machinery are old; raw public airing, Gorbachev widened the future is by no means certain. In the materials such as coal and oil are be limits of permissible debate in the So past year, he has had to deal with wors coming more costly to extract and are viet Union to levels unimaginable a few ening economic conditions, paralyzing used wastefully. There is little techno years ago. Newspapers and television strikes and violent unrest on the Soviet logical innovation: the world revolution report the news rather than party propa periphery. If hi s reforms fail, a conser in computers and telecommunications ganda. Reporters attend weekly press vative backlash could lead to renewed of the 1970s and 1980s has bypassed briefings on levels of crime (which had repression within the U.S.S.R. and the Soviet Union, where personal com not been reported since 1933), alcohol Eastern Europe and a more dangerous puters and even hand calculators are ism and poverty-social ills that Com period in U.S.-Soviet relations. still rarities. munist society was supposed to have How should the U.S. respond to the What Soviet citizens do have is a eliminated. Government critics voice changes in the Soviet Union and East system that guarantees the majority a their opinions on subjects that would ern Europe? How can it take advantage job, a place to live and subsidized food. have meant a jail sentence not long ago. of the historic opportunities Gorbachev But the poor quality and meager choice Soviet citizens-and the rest of the has presented without running unac of consumer goods has created what world-have also been given their first ceptable risks? Gorbachev has called "a gradual ero look at official statistics on the size of sion of the ideological and moral values the army and the defense budget, until A society on the ropes of our people." Soviet consumers are now closely guarded state secrets. "Economic restructuring," Gor sitting on piles of rubles, worth $30 bil The official version of Soviet hi story bachev has written, is "an urgent neces lion by some estimates, because there is is being reexamined. Blame for the sity." The Soviet economy had ground nothing to spend them on. Social and country's problems has been publicly almost to a halt by 1985, leaving a physical ills have multiplied. Alcohol heaped on Communist party officials, country with the military credentials of ism afflicts an estimated 17 million, both living and dead. Brezhnev is in a superpower and the internal workings most of whom are men. Related to this posthumous disgrace for sending the of a Third World nation: "Upper Volta is a high divorce rate. Life expectancy U.S.S.R. into its "years of stagnation." with rockets," as one saying goes. is declining and the infant mortality rate Nikita S. Khrushchev, Brezhnev's re This was not always the case. Joseph is among the highest in the world-four form-minded predecessor who had been Stalin achieved rapid growth for a to five times that in the West---<1ue a "nonperson" since his 1964 mister, while by centralizing all economic ac largely to the poor state of health care. has been restored to a place of honor. tivity in the 1930s, enabling him to di Some 30% of Soviet hospitals do not Stalin, whose economic success was rect all available resources into heavy have sewage systems; many lack run achieved through terror and the murder industry as the first step in a crash ning water. Health problems are aggra of millions during the forced collectivi modernization program. While much of vated in many places by polluted air zation of agriculture and the purges of the world was mired in the Great De and contaminated water. the 1930s, is accused of "enormous and pression, the Soviet gross national prod unforgivable" acts of lawlessness. Even uct (GNP) grew 8-9% a year, and eco Glasnost Vladimir I. Lenin, the founder of the nomic growth continued at impressive Gorbachev has staked his career on revolution, has come in for some criti rates well into the I 950s. Thereafter the reversing these trends without destroy cism (though not yet by the top Soviet growth rate slowed, and by the end of ing the economic security that the So leadership). The rewriting of history is Leonid I. Brezhnev's 18-year rule in viet system provides for its citizens. At moving so fast in the U.S.S.R. that 1983, it was down to less than 2% a the 27th party congress in late February spring history exams had to be canceled year. Soviet farmers (20% of the Soviet 1986 he laid out a plan to achieve "a in 1988 because Soviet textbooks had Union's 289 million citizens, more new quality of growth: an all-out inten not caught up. fanners than in all the Western industri sification of production on the basis of Books, films and plays critical of the alized countries and Japan combined) scientific-technical progress." He prom Soviet government, banned for years, produce less than one quarter of what ised to double Soviet industrial output are being published, and a number of Western farmers do. A third of Soviet and GNP by the end of the century. imprisoned dissidents have been re produce rots in the fields every year To accomplish this, his first task was leased and encouraged to participate in U.S.S.R. AND EASTERN EUROPE 7

the growing debate. Physicist Andrei D. ages of consumer goods are worse than Sakharov, back from exile in Gorki, they have been in 30 years. now represents the Soviet Academy of Gorbachev announced in 1989 that Sciences in the Congress of People's he would cut Soviet defense spending Deputies. 14.2% and put the money toward the Glasnost has gained Gorbachev the production of consumer goods. He enthusiastic support of many intellectu warned of "unpopular, probably tough als, who have stumped for his reforms. and even painful measures" ahead But the resulting debate over means and possibly wage controls and rationing. ends has led to challenges to the author But he has postponed price reform until ity of the Communist party and Gor at least 1991, and most Western econo bachev himself. One well-publicized mi sts do not believe perestroika can letter, printed in the daily paper AP/Wide World Photos succeed without it: unless prices accu Sovietskaya Rossiya in 1987, harshly Mikhail Gorbachev rately reflect costs and give people an attacked Gorbachev and glasnost for incentive to produce, there will always undermining authority and demoraliz lems. Plants that lost money gave out be shortages and bottlenecks in the ing the Soviet population, especially its raises and bonuses anyway, adding to economy. If those shortages continue to youth. In the fall of 1989, Gorbachev deficits and driving up inflation, now worsen, warns Soviet economist himself lashed out at a prominent editor running at 6-8%. Nikolai Shmelev, "in two to three years for adding to discord by giving too The 1988 Law on Cooperatives, there will be complete destruction of much coverage to his radical critics. encouraging the creation of a legal pri the consumer market." vate sector to meet consumer needs, has Economic reform been more successful. By the end of Democratizatsiya During the first two years of the re 1988, roughly 2 million Soviets were Gorbachev does not believe eco form program, Gorbachev cracked working for some 50,000 nonstate busi nomic refonns will work without the down on laziness and inefficiency in nesses, which accounted for about 1% "wholesome, full-blooded functioning the workplace. He stiffened penalties of GNP. by all public organizations .... In short, for absenteeism and drinking on the Gorbachev is also betting on pri we need broad democratization of all job, and made vodka harder to find and vately run fanns to eliminate some of aspects of society. That democratization more expensive to purchase. the inefficiencies of Soviet agriculture. is also the main guarantee that the cur In 1987 , Gorbachev turned to the New legislation will let farmers lease rent processes are irreversible." structure of the economy itself. In the land from the state for 50 years or Democratizatsiya has already pro Soviet system, the central planning more, retain their profits in return for duced revolutionary results. In March agency passes party directives to scores paying a tax, and pass their holdings on 1989, the country elected delegates to of different economic ministries, which to their children. As an incentive to the new Congress of People's Deputies tell the tens of thousands of local enter produce more, fanners are now paid in in the first secret-ballot, multicandidate prises what and how much to produce. foreign currency. elections in Soviet hi story. In one Len The emphasis is on quantity; there are The quality of goods and services ingrad district, 34 candidates cam few incentives for improving quality. cooperatives turn out is higher than that paigned for one seat. In more than 20 State-set prices bear no relationship to of state enterprises, and so are their cases, prominent candidates running actual value, so supply and demand are prices. Their handsome profits, even unopposed failed to receive the 51 % continually out of balance. after being taxed at rates of up to 90%, vote required for election. Perestroika, or restructuring, is in have provoked intense resentment. The new Congress met two months tended to free the Soviet economy from Gorbachev has not been able to talk later to elect a president and 542 repre the stranglehold of central planning. most Soviets out of this "wage-leveling sentatives to the revamped Supreme Since the Law on the State Enterprise mentality," despite hi s insistence that Soviet. In proceedings that lasted a went into effect in January 1988, the "work, and work alone, should be the week in stead of an anticipated few Soviet Union's 37,000 largest factories criterion for detennining a person's days, delegates grilled Gorbachev and (which produce about 60% of total out value, his social prestige and hi s mate attacked sacred cows like the army and put annually) have, in theory, been self rial status." the secret police (KGB). The Congress financing and self-administering. Man elected party chief Gorbachev to the agers who turn a profit can in principle Sticker shock presidency but only after one delegate, decide how to spend it; managers who People are tired of waiting for Gor "to set a precedent," nominated himself fail lose raises and bonuses; and plants bachev to keep his promise that reforms for the job. Under the_ new rules, the that consistently lose money may be will make things better. "Brezhnev president has sweeping powers but is shut down. brought us to the edge of the abyss," limited to two five-year tenns. The plan has not worked as adver goes one joke, "and Gorbachev is tak The Supreme Soviet, formerly a tised, and output has fallen throughout ing a giant step forward." U.S. esti rubber stamp for the party leadership, is the Soviet Union as factories try to ad mates show that the Soviet economy now the U.S.S.R. 's main legislative just to new rules and old supply prob- grew by only 1.5% in 1988, and short- body. One of its first moves, in July 1989, was to reject six of the party 's base, but he has been unable to stop it. As unrest spread last summer, even proposed candidates for top ministerial Many Soviets are beginning to call supporters of refonn were urging Gor jobs. publicly for amending the constitution, bachev to decree emergency powers. whi ch gives the party a "leading role" "If a person is seriously ill," said Dep The party in trouble in Soviet society, and for a multiparty uty Prime Minister Leonid I. Abalkin, The upshot of all this has been a system. "he needs certain healing methods. He decline in the influence of the tradi The dangers inherent in the combi has to be calmed, be put to bed, he has tional power centers, the Politburo and nation of expanded freedom to protest to change his diet, he has to be forbid the Communist party itself. The party's and worsening economic conditions den to run barefoot in the streets." humiliation in the March elections and were graphicall y illustrated last summer Gorbachev's innovations have pro the delegation of many of its powers to when almost 500,000 miners walked duced stiff opposition among those with elected bodies have weakened its au off the job in the U.S.S.R. 's two largest a strong vested interest in the old sys thority. Enrollment of new members coal-producing regions, angered by tem, notably bureaucrats and party and fell by 20% in 1988; membership in the shortages of soap and decent food, poor military leaders. Although Gorbachev All-Union League of Communist housin g and dangerous mine condi has replaced opponents with allies in Youth, the Komsomol, has dipped even tions. It cost the Kremlin an estimated the Politburo and Central Committee, more sharply, as thousands of youn g $8 billion in concessions to get the there is no such thing as job security in Soviets have joined independent politi miners back to work. More miners the Kremlin-especially for a leader ca l groups . Gorbachev cannot have waLked off the job in October, defying a undertaking the kind of radical changes meant glas nost to undennine hi s power IS -month strike ban. Gorbachev is attempting.

The Soviet empire

ORBACHEV has preached hi s tion. " To enlist the minorities ' support Gorbachev has cracked down on G gospel of glasnost and perestroika against the czars, Lenin talked of na corruption and has adopted the formula to help "the Soviet peoples" achieve "a tional self-determination. Once in of "a strong center and strong repub single destiny." But the Soviet Union is power, he declared the new nation a lics," hoping to gain the support of the a multiethnic state, and as Moscow has "federation of Soviet republics founded republics for perestroika. But Gorba loosened controls from the center and on the principle of a free union of the chev's political reforms have encour encouraged the expression of griev peoples of Ru ssia." The republics were aged regional leaders to vent their ances, many of the different groups divided along national lines, but, de grievances openl y. Says Yulian Brom within Soviet borders have used the spite a clause in the constitution guaran ley of the Institute of Ethnography at new atmosphere to pursue their own teeing republics the right to secede, the Soviet Academy of Sciences, "Pere agendas. Between the beginning of there was nothing "free" about the un stroika destroyed the old mechanisms 1988 and mid-L989, violence due to ion: all were brought under Moscow's of keeping people quiet, but it hasn't ethnic unrest had claimed well over a control between 1918 and 1922. created a mechanism of its own to pre hundred lives, and Moscow's control Whi le keeping a tight rein on the vent turning democracy into anarchy." appeared to be slipping. non-Russian republics politically, Lenin The national groups' demands are as Before the founding of the Soviet encouraged them to preserve their lan varied as their circumstances and hi sto state in 1918, the Russian empire had guages and cultures. Over the years, ries. Some want greater autonomy or grown over 400 years to embrace a this policy tended to produce educated even independence from Moscow; oth wide variety of peoples. Man y of the elites who could articu late minority ers want more economic help. Some are more than 100 nationalities that make interests. involved in age-old ethn ic feud s with ~ up the Soviet Union have preserved During the Stal in years, many of neighbors; others want to return to the ti their histori es, cultures, religious tradi those press in g for fuller autonomy for homes Stalin forced them to leave. A Ii tions and languages to a significant ex the republics were killed or sent to Si common grievance is envi ronmental tent. Soviet Central Asians, especially beria. Entire national groups, such as pollution. in the south, are mostly Muslims. Esto the Meskhetian Turks who were moved The BaLlies-Estonia, Latvia and nians may pretend not to understand if from Georgia to Uzbekistan, were Lithuania-were absorbed by the they are addressed in Russian. The forcibly relocated. U.S.S.R. in 1940 as a result of a secret Catholic Church in the Ukraine and Brezhnev 's way of dealing with the protocol to the 1939 Nazi-Soviet pact, Lithuania retain s ties to Rome whereas nationality problem was to declare it the existence of which Moscow denied most Soviet Christians in thi s officiall y solved and to leave local party leaders until mid- 1989. The Baltics have a atheistic state are Eastern Orthodox. pretty much to their own devices. With strong West European orientation, Every Soviet leader since Lenin has Moscow's controls loosened, corrup highly developed economies and the had to deal with the "national ques- tion ran rampant. country 's most soph isticated indepen- rI U.S.S.R. ANO EASTERN EUROPE 9 dent political organizations, known as popular fronts. Nationalism in the Soviet Union Hoping to secure the Balties' coop o Miles eration on perestroika, Moscow legal I ized the Popular Front of Estonia in 1988. It became the model for similar fronts in Latvia and Lithuania, which have spearheaded fast-growing nation alist movements. All three republics have been promised a significant degree of economic autonomy effective Janu ary 1990. Not content with these concessions, many in the Baltics are demanding full independence. On August 23, 1989, the RUSSIAN REPUBLIC \45.3 50th anniversary of the Nazi-Soviet pact, thousands of peopl e linked hands to form a 400-mile-long chain across the three republics. Local elections, scheduled for 1990, are expected to result in a rout for local Communist parties by popular-front candidates. The Caucasus is home to Georgians, Armenians and Azerbaijanis, as well as many smaller groups. Clashes between mostly Muslim Azerbaijanis and Chris tian Armenians in the autonomous re gion of Nagomo-Karabakh have cost over 100 lives and created a flood of refugees. Last summer, the extremist Azerbaijani national front blockaded The U.S . government has not recogn ized the incorporation of the railway that is Armenia's lifeline. Estonia, l atvia and lithuania in to the U. S.S.R. To end the blockade, the Azerbaijani Communist party was forced to grant health problems. Organized corruption their official language. The Ukrai ne, the the front unprecedented concessions, and violent crime are rampant. second most populous of the U.S.S.R.'s including the right to secede from the Already the poorest region in the republics and the most important agri U.S.S.R. U.S.S.R., Central Asia is growing cultural and industrial region, now has a Georgia has al so been the scene of poorer and blames its backwardness on fast-growing nationali st movement, violent nationalist and ethnic unrest. On Moscow's neglect. Alma-A ta , Kazakh known as Rukh (Ukrainian for move April 9, 1989, Soviet troops killed 20 stan 's capital, exploded with rioting and ment). By the time its first congress met nationali st demonstrators and injured looting in 1986 when Gorbachev added last September, Rukh already had hundreds more in the capital, Tbilisi. insult to inju ry by replacing a Kazakh 270,000 members, many of whom were And in July 1989, 20 more people died party leader with a Ru ssian as part of calling for independence. in clashes between Georgians and his anticorruption drive. Economic Ethnic Russians account for just Abkhazians, who want to secede from grievances also sparked rioting by over 50% of th e Soviet population. Al Georgia. There have also been tensions Kazakh youths in June 1989. though they still dominate the U.S.S.R. between Georgians and Azerbaijanis Just a week earlier in Uzbeki stan , politically, culturall y and sociall y, they living in Georgia. Uzbeks and the. Turkish Meskhetian fear they are on the verge of losing their Soviet Central Asia has the largest minority, moved there by Stalin in cultural dominance along with their and fastest-growing minority in the 1944. clashed, resulting in nearly 100 majority statu s, and resent Moscow's Soviet Union, some 50 million Mu s deaths, 1,000 injuries and the destruc attentions to the non-R ussian republics. lims. Unemployment is high, there are tion of 400 homes. Some 16,000 Russian s moved to other republics by chronic food shortages and the infant Meskhetians had to be evacuated for Stalin also feel discriminated against by mortality rate is twice the nation's aver their protection. local authorities. In August 1989, thou age. Overirrigation from the AraJ Sea sands of Russians in Estonia staged a once th e fourth largest lake in the Closest to home series of strikes protesting a local law world-and pollution from chemicals In the heartland of the U.S.S.R. live that would have prevented many of used in growing cotton, the region 's the Ukrainians, Belorussians and them from voting or running for office. largest crop, have caused serious envi Moldavians. Moldavians have been Under pressure from Moscow, Estonia ronmental deterioration and related agitating to have Moldavian adopted as repealed the law two months later. h

10 GREAT DECISIONS 1990

At the far right of the Russian move Although Gorbachev has called for crises on an ad hoc basis. If Moscow's ment is an organization called Parnyat "profound reform" of the Soviet federal control of the republics continues to (Russian for memory), notorious for its structure, he has not said what he weaken, many worry Gorbachev may Russian chauvinism and strong anti means-beyond ruling out secession feel compelled to crack down. That Western, anti-Semitic views. and the Kremlin continues to respond to could mean the end of political reform.

Eastern Europe

The events that are flOW laking place in ion.) The U.S.S.R. reinforced its leader nomic and political structures, they can the countries of Eastern Europe con ship of the "socialist commonwealth" revive their listless economies and be cern the countries and peoples of that through the Council for MUlual Eco come an asset in stead of a liability to region. We have no right, moral or po nomic Assistance (CMEA, or Come the Soviet Union. litical right, to inteliere in events hap con), founded in 1949. pening there. Maintaining control of Eastern Eu The vanguard -Mikh ai l Gorbachev, rope has been Moscow's primary for Leading the charge toward change October 25, 1989 eign policy goal ever since. The Soviet are Poland and Hungary. At the start of led bloc provides the U.S.S.R. with a the Gorbachev era both were in serious ITH THESE WORDS . Gorbachev buffer zone between it and potential economic trouble, with declining stan W officially reversed Ihe Soviel Western aggressors. It keeps ethnic dards of living, inefficient industries Union's expressed right to use force to tensions that had caused innumerable and heavy national debt. Today, while maintain its East European empire. wars in the region over the centuries in sti ll facing daunting economic prob That policy was articulated by check. And the presence of other Com lems, both are on the road to a multi Brezhnev in 1968, after the Soviet Un munist regimes modeled after Ihe gov party political system and a market ion invaded Czechoslovakia to halt its ernment in Moscow and loyal to it economy. liberalization program. gives the Soviet state legitimacy. Poland has always been the moS! Soviet control of Eastern Europe Until Gorbachev, Ihe Soviet Union troublesome member of the Communist dates from the end of World War II, generally did not tolerate politicalliber bloc. The crisis that ended with the when the Soviet Red Army drove Adolf alization in Eastern Europe that threat imposition of martial law in 1981 was Hitler's forces back from Soviet terri ened either the dominance of national sparked by the deterioration of the Pol tory and across Eastern Europe. Agree Communist parties or their participation ish economy afler 1976. Workers, ments reached with the U.S., Britain in the Warsaw Pact. (The exceptions backed by the powerful Calholic and France in effect recognized Soviet were Yugoslavia, which broke with Church and liberal intellectuals, banded dominance in the region, but called for Moscow in 1948, and Albania, which together to create the independent trade free elections. Moscow reneged on formally withdrew from the Warsaw union Solidarity, representing some 10 those and instead converted Bulgaria, Pact in 1968.) million Polish workers and headed by East Germany, Hungary, Poland, Ro Eastern Europe has witnessed recur Lech Wale sa. The union forced the mania and Czechoslovakia into ring rebellion against Communist rule, party into concessions during a wave of "people's democratic republics" under often sparked by economic hardship. strikes in 1980, but was outlawed a year tight Soviet control. On two occasions, Soviet troops in later when martial law was declared. Along either side of the Iron Curtain vaded to restore order: in Hungary in Solidarity went underground, and the that sealed Eastern Europe off from 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. economic s ituation continued to non-Communist Western Europe, the Today Eastern Europe's socialist worsen. cold war hardened into a military stand economies suffer from many of the Today, Poland has an inflation rate off. Fearful of further Communist ex same maladies that afflict Soviet social of over 100%, a debt of nearly $40 bil pansion, the Western countries-the ism-low productivity, consumer lion and, in the words of The EconomiST U.S., Canada, Belgium, Britain, France, goods shortages, inefficient industries. (London) magazine, "an archaic indus Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, In recent years, the quality of the manu try remarkable mainly for its capacilY to Denmark, Iceland, Italy and Portugal factured goods Eastern Europe sells to pollute." Store shelves are nearly banded together in 1949 in the North the Soviet Union has declined while the empty. Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), cost of Soviet energy and raw materials In early 1989, facing economic dis a military alliance paralleled by needed to produce them has skyrock integration, labor unrest -and growing Moscow when it created the Warsaw eted. Increasingly, the bloc has become pressure from Solidarity leaders, the Pact in 1955. (Its members are Bul a burden to Moscow. Communist party agreed to hold semi garia, Czechoslovakia, the German Gorbachev is gambling that if he free elections in the spring. It also re Democratic Republic [GDR], Hungary, gives East European governments the stored Solidarity's legal slat us in ex Poland. Romania and Ihe Soviet Un- freedom to experiment with their eco- change for a promise that the union U,S,S,R, AND EASTERN EUROPE 11 would help secure popular cooperation sidy cuts to reduce the deficit, privatiza fonns to prevent future explosions. His for economic refonns. tion of industry and, eventually, a cur solution, known as "goulash commu In the 1une 1989 parliamentary elec rency fully convertible with that of nism," was the first experiment with a tions, the Communist party lost almost other nations. It has devalued its cur partially decentralized economy by a every seat open to contest, retaining rency to soften the impact of sudden Communist country. Limited private control of a majority in the lower house price rises and has appealed to the Inter enterprise was encouraged, and the only because of pre-agreed election national Bank for Reconstruction and government by and large stayed out of rules that guaranteed it a majority. It Development (World Bank), the Inter the private lives of individuals. was nevertheless unable to fonn a gov national Monetary Fund (IMF) and Hungary's economy prospered, ernment when two smaller parties de Western countries for considerable fi compared with much of the bloc, until fected to the Solidarity side in August. nancial help and emergency food aid to the mid-1980s, when it began to feel To break the deadlock, the party asked cushion the effects of these reforms, the crunch of a mounting debt to the Solidarity to fonn a government, and it which are bound to make a bleak eco West and rising consumer shortages. became the first Communist party to nomic situation even worse before Hungary today has a 20% inflation rate, permit itself to be turned out of office. things begin to get better. rising unemployment, a debt of $21 bil Poland's new non-Communist prime Most affected by the austerity meas lion-Europe's highest per capita-and minister, responsible for the day-to-day ures is the working class, Solidarity's a falling standard of living. Today one running of the government, is Solidarity main base of support. Workers can af out of three Hungarians lives below the leader Tadeusz Mazowiecki. Gen. ford fewer basic goods as inflation spi official poverty line. It has the highest Wojciech laruzelski (who barely won rals upward, and many will lose their suicide rate in the world, and has the parliamentary vote needed) is presi jobs as the new government moves to among the highest rates of alcoholism, dent, which among other things gives close down unprofitable businesses. divorce, abortion and heart attacks. him the power to dissolve parliament Some analysts have suggested that eco Much of the blame for Hungary's and call for new elections at any time. nomic hardship will cost Solidarity its economic troubles was heaped on The rules specify that his successor be support and pave the way for the party Kadar, who was ousted in May 1988. chosen by a fully popular vote. The to regain control of the government. Political and economic changes since Communist party still controls the de Hungary's 1956 rebellion was trig then are pointing Hungary in the direc fense and interior ministries, and there gered by government inaction in the tion of a democratic, free-market coun fore the country's army and police. face of a slide in the Hungarian stan try. The 1988 Law on Economic Asso The new government is carrying out dard of living. Janos Kadar, who took ciation pennits anyone to set up ajoint a radical plan to turn Poland rapidly over after the Soviet tanks withdrew, stock company, limiting risk to individ into a market economy, through sub- recognized the need for economic re- ual entrepreneurs, and Hungary has

East Germany Eastern Europe Poland Richest, strongest bloc member. First bloc country to oust Com In November 1989, new govern munist government. Tadeusz ment under Egon Krenz opened Mazowiecki, SOlidarity leader, borders to West, and promised counting on West to cushion ef free elections in attempt to stop POLAND fects of economic reforms. With flight of best and brightest of 38.2 million, most populous bloc 16.6 million population. nation, second poorest.

Wars• aw Czechoslovakia Romania Once a major industrial power, Nicolae Ceausescu, most repres economy stagnant, although food sive East-bloc leader, presides shelves still well stocked. Anti over poorest of the six. Indepen reform party chief Milos Jakes dent foreign policy, persecution forced out in November 1989. Of of minority Hungarians, opposi 15.6 million population, 63% tion to refonns have antagonized Czech, 31% Slovak. Moscow.

Hungary Bulgaria East-bloc refonn leader, with Po Over the years, the most loyal, land. Moving toward multiparty docile Soviet ally. Todor Zhiv system with free parliamentary kov, 78, hard-line leader for 35 elections in 1990 and more-mar years; announced plans for cos ket-oriented economy. Now a re metic economic and political re public; Communist party remod forms during 1989; ousted that eled on social democratic lines. November. 12 GREAT DECISIONS 1990

of Todor Zhivkov (78) had difficult re lations with Moscow during the Gor bachev years because of Zhivkov's opposition to reform. He was forced out of office on November 10, 1989. Bulgarian debt is not large-$6.3 billion-but debt-servicing absorbs 36% of its export earnings a year. Bul garia, too, is plagued by food and en ergy shortages and a declining standard of living. The government in Sofia has come under fire not only in the West but from its bloc neighbors for its cam paign of forced assimilation and reli gious repression of its Turkish minority, some 300,000 of whom were either driven out of the country or fled during "...UX): FOR PN2TIAl CLEARlt«r IN ~ WI1lI sao IEI2EO \.WISINGS' 1989. IalJ:;$ THE UU1C~II:S ... FlJlmlEI'l ~,CONt'INIJW F\.I5If After the Soviets invaded in 1968, F\.OODS OFl-IU'MNl1Y I2\JSH fIZlM ~ ~ ~ Krza:E ending the reform program under Alex ClEC\lOSt.OVAKIA />W \ll.NGA\Z'IIt>M:l ~ W!11I exPliCl W H~ ander Dubcek known as the Prague IN 1l-IE 1"~ AtID A. 351. socialist state run by the Com West Germany. party chief Milos Jakes. munist party to a democratic, constitu The population is well educated and On November 14,1989, the govern tional republic with "the values of both knows, thanks to West European televi ment lifted restrictions on travel to the bourgeois democracy and democratic sion (which East Germans alone among West. Three days later, it responded socialism." The new constitution legal Communist East Europeans see), that brutally to a peaceful demonstration by izes opposition parties. guarantees its neighbors to the West are much bet some 25,000 students in Prague. That 1 human and civil rights and confers ter off. Experts say that the mass emi sparked a week of daily protests involv separate powers on the judiciary, execu gration to the West has hurt East ing hundreds of thousands of Czecho tive and legislative branches of govern Germany's economic prospects badly: slovaks from all walks of life, and on ment. The Republic of Hungary's first most who are leaving are young and November 25, Jakes and the rest of the multiparty parliamentary elections are skilled, and there are estimates that they party leadership resigned. scheduled for early 1990. may cost the GDR the equivalent of Elated but not satisfied, millions of about $179 million in lost productivity. Czechoslovaks shut down the country The antireformers Hundreds of thousands of East Ger two days later in a nationwide strike, Not all East European countries mans who stayed behind staged huge calling for democratic reforms. The were enthusiastic about reform. The demonstrations in the days following party gave in almost immediately to governments of the GDR, Bulgaria, East Germany's 40th anniversary, de two central demands: that it give up its Czechoslovakia and Romania resisted manding reforms. The unrest led to a monopoly on power and admit non change and suppressed opposition; but government shake-up in East Berlin, Communists to the government. three out of four had buckled by late the GDR's capital, in mid-October, The opposition, small and tightly November 1989. when Erich Honecker (77) was retired repressed until the Jakes regime fell, is s Although the GDR enjoys Eastern and fellow hard-liner Egon Krenz took short on leaders and experience: best c Europe's highest standard of living, that over. On November 9, Krenz lifted all known is playwright Vaclav Havel. has not prevented large numbers of East restrictions on travel to the West; some Karel Urbanek, Jakes' successor, is no P Germans from wanting more. By early 40,000 East Germans crossed the Berlin radical reformer. The speed of the No \\ November 1989, 167,000-1 % of the Wall that weekend, though most re vember events has made everyone gun si population-had left the country; some turned home afterward. shy about predicting the future, but VI estimate that a full 10% of all East Ger In Bulgaria, it is said, there is no many are hopeful that Czechoslovakia's th mans has applied to leave. word for "pluralism." Traditionally the relative economic health will help it IX Many emigrants told reporters they U.S.S.R.'s closest ally, the government make the transition to democracy. tr, U.S.s.R. AND EASTERN EUROPE 13

Romania is headed by Nicolae to raze whole villages and force inhabi The U.S. and Western Europe have Ceau~escu (71) and his family. It is one tants to move into "agro-industrial cen expanded their economic relations with of the most repressive regimes in the ters:; allegedly to increase agricultural Hungary and Poland, as well as the world, and its people live in Eastern efficiency. Critics suspect the policy is U.S.S.R. Joint ventures with Western Europe's most miserable conditions. part of a pattern of discrimination firms are now legal in those countries, Ceau&escu paid off all of Romania 's against Romania's Hungarian and Ger and the number of such enterprises is heavy foreign debt-$21 billion-in man minorities. Such policies have climbing, especially in Hungary, where 1989, but at the expense of its citizens, earned Romania not only Western criti terms are most favorable. Lending, by who have lived with severe food and cism lately, but that of its East Euro individual countries as well as the IMF, fuel rationing for years. In a country pean neighbors, especially Hungary. has begun to increase again, after faIl that used to export agricultural prod Romania rejects any "inadmissible in ing off during the 1980s when East ucts, a common Romanian joke runs, terference" in its affairs by outsiders. Europeans found themselves unable to "If we had a little more food, it would pay their debts from the 1970s. During be like wartime." The low and still Prospects their economic summit meeting in Paris falling standard of living provoked riot Gorbachev's pledge of noninterfer in the summer of 1989, the seven major ing in the city of Brasoy in November ence in Eastern Europe has encouraged non-Communist industrialized powers 1987 that the government crushed. reformers there, but they caution that agreed to have the European Commu Romania's leadership considers it their efforts will fail without Western nity coordinate food aid for Poland as a " unnecessary to re structure." It has help. They need aid to offset the impact reward for political reforms and as en denounced Gorbachev' s reforms and of austerity measures on strapped con couragement to move further toward a censored all references to glasnost and sumers and to buy their new govern market economy. West Germany has perestroika. The government has plans ments time to make reforms succeed. pledged the most-$1.9 billion.

End of an era?

OR 40 YEARS, East-West relations (1972 and 1979), and 35 nations signed cal and managerial help for perestroika. F have been on a roller coaster, alter the Helsinki Final A·ct of the Confer On military issues, Moscow has nating between periods of tension and ence on Security and Cooperation in pushed for arms-control agreements relaxation. Stalin's death in 1953 was Europe in 1975, in which the West with the U.S. that will make it safe for followed by a thaw, when the Korean agreed to accept the existing postwar the Soviets to shift funds away from armistice was signed and Soviet troops boundaries in Europe in return for defense into other areas that need it withdrew from a neutralized Austria. Communist promises to make improve desperately. In the process, he has made The thaw ended abruptly with the So ments in human rights. concessions that would have been un viet invasion of Hungary in 1956. That Detente foundered in the late 1970s imaginable a few years ago. In the period of serious ten sions culminated in on the divergent views of Washington treaty eliminating intermediate-range 1962, when the U.S.S.R. placed nuclear and Moscow on the arms race, Soviet nuclear forces (INF), signed by Gor missiles in Cuba, within striking dis involvement in the Third World and bachev and President Ronald Reagan in tance of the U.S. The crisis brought the Soviet human-rights policies at home December 1987, Moscow said yes to superpowers to the brink of nuclear and in Eastern Europe. It died when the much that it had previously rejected in war. Both sides recognized the impor Soviets invaded Afghanistan in Decem U.S. proposals, including visits by U.S. tance of avoiding a repeat performance ber 1979; the coup de grace was Soviet experts to Soviet military bases to ver and relations improved. They signed support for the imposition of martial ify compliance with a treaty. For nearly the hot-line accord, guaranteeing rapid law in Poland two years later. 40 years, the Kremlin had adamantly communication during a crisis, a treaty opposed on-site inspections. to ban nuclear testing in the atmos Soviet policy changes After signing the INF treaty, phere, underwater and in outer space Some Western observers of Gorba Moscow kept up the peace offensive by (1963), and an agreement to prevent the chev's "smile offensive" worry that announcing in December 1988 that it spread of nuc lear weapons to other today' s thaw may prove as transitory as would unilaterally cut its active military countries (1968). its predecessors. But a growing major forces by 500,000 troops and 10,000 Detellfe, or a lessening of tensions, ity is beginning to think thi s thaw may tanks. Of these, 50,000 men and 5,000 picked up speed during the 1970s, as last. Faced with the imperative of get tank s would come from Eastern Eu West Germany and the Soviet Union ting hi s Soviet house in order, Gor rope, where Soviet strength in man signed treaties on the status of the di bache v appears to have decided to power, tanks and artillery has long been vided city of Berlin and other issues eliminate as many bones of contention the major concern of Western defense that had periodically threatened the with other states as possible, both to planners. Gorbachev began pulling peace. The superpowers negotiated two save money and perhaps convince the troops out of Hungary and East Ger treaties on strategic nuclear weapons West to pitch in with economic, techni- many in April 1989. 14 GREAT DECISIONS 1990

Many Western analysts believe that economic considerations only partially explain Gorbachev's foreign policy. Robert Legvold, director of th e W. Averell Harriman In stitute for Ad vanced Study of the Soviet Union at Columbia University, believes Gorba chev's actions also reflect a new Soviet perception of national security in the modern world. where military power has limited applications. "Security," Gorbachev declared at the 27th party congress, "is increasingly a political function that can be accomplished only by political means." He is the first So viet leader to talk about the relationship of national security to "mutual secu rity." "Less security for the U.S. com pared to the Soviet Union," he said, "would not be in our interest since it could lead to mistrust and produce in Agence Fralnce··P'esse stability." The Soviets are also down Bush and Walesa in Poland, July 1989. Solidarity would take power within the month. playing the importance of the struggle between capitalism and socialism On regional issues. the Soviets have except Romania, signed an accord ending with socialism's triumph-as also surprised the West. Not only did promising more rel igious freedom, the main dynamic of international af the Soviets withdraw their last troops travel and rights for minorities. So far, fairs. from Afghanistan in 1988, after nine however, most of these rights have not Other analysts remain doubtful that years' occupation, but they now admit been been incorporated in the laws of much has changed beyond Moscow's the invasion was illegal. Almost cer any of the Communist signatories. desire to rescue its economy. Deeds, tainly under pressure from Moscow, they claim, have not so far matched Vietnam promised to pull its forces out 'New thinking' words. They say support to client states of neighboring Cambodia (see Topic 4). There is still a good deal of discus has not fallen off appreciably (Moscow Moscow also participated in talks dur sion in thi s country about Gorbachev's still spends some $10 billion a year ing 1988 that led Cuba to withdraw its true motives. Clearly hi s major concern supporting its friends in Central Amer troops from Angola. And Gorbachev is economic: Soviet military spending ica); defense spending is still high, and, has supported a strengthening of the has been eating up roughly a quarter of by some estimates, if arms production role of the United Nations in solving the annual budget and monopolizing continues at present rates, Moscow will regional conflicts, and backed up hi s the U.S.S.R.'s best brains and re still be outproducing the U.S. in weap rhetoric by paying $225 million of the sources. Regional adventures have also ons well into the 1990s. Soviet espio debt owed to the UN since the early proved expensive: by 1980, Moscow's nage, including the pirating of Western I 960s. Third World clients were costing some technology, has actually increased, ac On human rights, Moscow has also where between $36 billion and $45 bil cording to the Administration. Some allayed many U.S. concerns. It has lion annually. conservatives conclude from the above freed many political pri soners and al Moscow badly needs Western eco that Moscow is only seeking a breath lowed increased emigration over the nomic, technical and managerial assis ing space (peredyshka) before it returns past few years. American officials ex tance to make pere stroika succeed. to its aggressive ways. pect as many as 250,000 Soviet emigres Until now, U.S.-Soviet trade has suf to request entrance to the U.S. in 1990. fered because of the lackson-Yanik and U.S.-Soviet relations The Soviet Union has also adopted Stevenson amendments to the 1974 President George Bush approached new laws governing psychiatric hospi Trade Act, which punish Moscow for U.S.-Soviet relations cautiously. More tals. which were routinely used in the restricting Jewish emigration. The than three months elapsed before Bush past to warehouse political prisoners. In amendments deny most-favored-nation made his first major policy statement. 1989,30 American observers who were status to the Soviet Union and limit in which he declared that "the U.S. now allowed to visit Soviet mental hospitals Export-Imporl Bank credits to finance has as its goal much more than simply to interview patients concluded that Soviet purchases of U.S. goods. In the containing Soviet expansionism-we "the tran sition to a more humane re wake of increased emigration, there is seek the integration of the Soviet Union gime has just begun." Also in early now growing support in the U.S. for into the community of nations." Bu sh 1989, 35 nations, including the waiving the provisions of these laws, at also said that "promises are never U.S.S.R. and all its Warsaw Pact allies least for a year. enough" and that Moscow would have U,S.S.R, ANlJ EAST"R' EUROPE IS

to earn a new relationship with the U.S. economic risk ; nor should it deny the Over the ensu ing months, Moscow's· U .S.S.R. or East European countries proposals, combined with the political loans or deals that would be profitable unrest within the U.S.S.R. and the for U.S. firms. The credit rating of East measured Soviet reactions to it, led to European borrowers has dropped be an evolution in Administration think cause they fell behind on debt-service ing. At two meetings between Secretary payments on loans made in the 1970s. of State James A. Baker 3d and Soviet On the other hand, the Soviet Union has Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevard an excellent credit rating. making it a nadze, significant progress was made prime candidate for loans were it not on anns control, and Bush believes that for political objections. agreements on strategic nuclea r weap 03. Tie economic aid to economic ons and conventional forces in Europe Sean McCloud and political reforms, "The pressure are possible within a year. The U.S. and Secretary oj State James A. Baker 3d. of foreign debt has been one of th e U.S.S.R. have also signed an agreement Gorbachev before the planned 1990 main things pushing Poland and Hun on "The Prevention of Dangerous Mili summit, in early December 1989. gary toward freer markets .... It would tary Activities," de signed to forestall be foolish for Western governments to military maneuvers, such as border Options relax the press ure while most of the re crossings, from accidentally triggering Michael Mandelbaum, director of forms remain on paper," says The a wa r, and to block its spread should the Project on East-West Relations at Economist (London) magazine. With one break out. The two countries have the Council on Foreign Relations, has out making further free-market refonns, also made progress on a treaty to ban written that "the master key to ending East European governments will not be chemical weapons (see Topic 5). the cold war is the process of internal able to put Western funds to any better By thc time Baker addressed the reform that Gorbachev has begun in the use than they did previously. By the Foreign Policy Association in October Soviet Union." Liberalization is the best same token, rewarding economic and 1989, the Administration had dropped guarantee that the changes taking place political liberalization should enable the it.s cautionary tone and welcomed "a in Eastern Europe and in Soviet foreign U.S. to retain the economic leverage historic opportunity with the Soviet policy as a whole will continue, he be that wi ll encourage further change, Union ... to leave behind the postwar lieves, because it is harder for a govern suggests Rep. Don J. Pease (D-Ohio). period with the ups and downs of the ment to renege on international com o 4. Tie economic concessions to cuts cold war ... to make th e change toward mitments if it ha s to contend with pub in the Soviet armed forces. The U.S. better superpower relations more secure lic debate. should not increase the flow of funds to and less reversible." To help perestroika What, if anything, can the U.S. do to Warsaw Pact countries without explicit succeed, Baker sa id that the U .S. stood ensure that the process of liberalization guarantees that Moscow will not spend read y to provide Moscow with techni con tinues? Some of the ideas currently the money on its military establishment cal and other assistance. being float ed follow. and that it will reduce its defense The Bush Administration's policy o I. Make economic concessions to budget, argues Judy Shelton of the toward Eastern Europe has also help give Gorbachev and East Euro Hoover In stitution. Otherwise, the changed. partly in response to congres pean reformers time to get reforms U.S.S.R. could well emerge in time sional pressure. When Bush visited working. The U.S. can lower the risk with a stronger economy, a stronger Poland and Hungary in July 1989, he of a political explosion due to falling military and an increased appetite for promised $100 million in seed money standards of living when reform s are world aggression. With such assur to start private businesses-I% of the first implemented and a repress ive ances. the U.S. ca n expand trade and $10 billion Solidarity leader Walesa backlash by offering substantial loans loans to the U.S.S.R. and its allies; it requested-and another $15 million to and favorable trade tenns. These would can also fee l more sec ure about reduc help clean up the environment. Since enable governments to cushion th e ing its own defense budget, says fonner then, th e Administration has raised its impact of austerity measures by buying defense official Richard N. Perle. offer to $455.5 million and is pushing consumer goods to tide people over the World Bank to approve a $325 mil during the transition period. As a first lion loan and debt restructuring. Hun step, the U.S. could waive the provi *** gary will get $25 million for private sions of the Jackson- Yanik and Steven Are the changes taking place in th e enterprise and $5 million for the envi son amendments. Soviet Union and Eastern Europe irre ronment. 02. Treat the U.S,S.R. and East Eu versible? How can the U.S. help make Baker also quietly assured Shevard ropean countries the way we would sure the current trend s in Moscow and nad ze that, although it supports the any other country. Western investors in East-West relations prove more last right of all people to self-determination. should "pursue profits, not politics," ing than previous thaws? the U.S. would do nothing to add to the says Sen. Bill Bradley (D-N.J.). The unrest in Eastern Europe and the Soviet U.S. should not subs idize the Soviet or Opinion Ballot republics. The speed of change in those East European efforts to provide con areas persuaded Bush to meet with sumer goods past the point of se nsible 1111. on page 93 1111. 16 GREAT DECISIONS 1990

FOR DISCUSSION

1. Suppose you are Ihe secretary of encourage the Salties in their quest for and related political unrest so that re state, trying to decide on whether or not autonomy or even independence? Why fonns have a chance to take effect. to make fundamental changes in the or why not? What do you think of that idea? approach underlying U.S. policy toward the Soviet Union. What factors would 3. What, if anything, do you think could 5. Should the U.S. waive provisions of convince you that it was safe to do so? prompt the Soviet Union to renege on the J ackson-Vanik and Stevenson What factors would convince you that Gorbachev's pledge not to interfere in amendments? Why or why not? to do so would pose unacceptable risks the affairs of Eastern Europe? What in the event that Soviet policy abruptly role can the U.S. play, if any, in pre 6. What seems to you to be the biggest l changed course? venting such an occurrence? obstacle to reforming the Soviet econ omy? 2. The U.S. has never recognized the 4. Some in the Soviet Union are urging absorption of the Baltic republics into Gorbachev to give himself emergency 7. What seems to you to be the issue the Soviet Union, and it favors self powers to help the Soviet Union with the most potential to topple Gor detennination for all peoples. Should it through its current economic troubles bachev from power?