The National Product of East Germany
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THE NATIONAL PRODUCT OF EAST GERMANY In a recent article1 data and calculations on industrial production and the labor force in Soviet Germany were given. The present article offers similar calculations for the other major sectors of the economy and attempts to make estimates for the major uses of the Gross National Product. Because we are dealing with a Soviet economy it becomes neces- sary to describe the sources on which calculations are based and to explain the methods used in some detail. This has been done in the Appendix (p. I 56 ff.) . OVE R-ALL DEVELOPMENTS Table I gives the result of the calculation of the Gross National Product (GNP) by industrial origin in 1936 and 1950in West German prices. For comparison’s sake the estimates for the GNP of the Federal Republic are also included2. The table includes two alternative estimates for trade. The estimate arrived at by the “employment method” seems preferable to the estimates based on deflation, as explained in the Appendix (pp.I 6016 I ) .Finally, two summations have been made, one which corresponds to the East German concept of the GNP, the other which corresponds to the Western coverage and which includes the services of those people which in Eastern ter- minology are employed in “areas outside of material production”. An attempt has also been made to adjust the GNP of the Federal Republic to correspond to the East German coverage3. I. WOLFGANGF. STOLPER,“Labor Force and Industrial Development in Soviet Germany”, Quarter& Journal of Economics, Vol. 7 I, November I 957, PP. 5 18-545. 2. Only the estimates in 1936 prices, available for the years 1950-1955 are shown. 3. The precise adjustments are described in footnote 4 to Table I, c. The calculations made differ from the normal statistics in that neither actually paid nor imputed rents are included. 132 WOLFGANG F. STOLPER First a brief comment on the relative size of the GNP 1936 in the Federal Republic without West Berlin and in the German Demo- cratic Republic (GDR) including East Berlin. In that year the West German GNP was about 2lI2 times the East German, with the West German population being roughly twice the East German popula- tion. By 1955 the West German population was about three times that in Soviet Germany but the gap in the aggregate GNP had wid- ened. The West German GNP was more than four times the East German GNP. Secondly, if 1955 or 1957 is compared with 1936, the increase in the aggregate GNP was substantially greater in the West than in the East, the Eastern showing being even worse when measured in 1950 than when measured in 1936 prices. There can be no doubt that the per capita product in the GDR was by 1956 barely above 1936 while it was in the Federal Republic substantially above it4. Thirdly, in both the Federal Republic and in the GDR, the in- creases in the GNP between 1955 and 1936 are larger if the East German coverage of the GNP is taken, than when the West German coverage is taken, but the differences are not significant. Fourth, since 1950, the year of the First Five Year Plan, the rates of change are not too different. The GNP of the Federal Republic has increased in 1955 by about 63 lieyoabove 1950. The East German 4. The per capita figures are found on Table 6 (p. 152). During the summer of 1958 I had occasion to discuss my estimates with various gentlemen of the Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung. The over-all results of the estimates made in West Berlin for the post-war years were substantially similar to the estimates presented here. Dr. Abeken and Dr. Kupky pointed out, however, that there was evidence that industrial production in 1936was substantially under- estimated by the census. Thus the growth compared to 1936 of aggregate or per capita GNP would be smaller than the calculations presented indicate. At the time that this is written it is not known to me what the order of magnitude of the required adjustment might be. The reader is, however, advised that West German sources have adjusted the prewar figures for major crops upward by 10% (see Appendix p. 158). This adjustment has already been made in the estimate of agriculture and a similar increase of the estimate for industry would raise the estimated GNP of the GDR (Western coverage) in 1936 from 18.0 billion RM to about 20 billion RM, measured in 1936 prices, which would reduce the aggregate growth between 1956 and 1936 to about 10% as against 15% shown by the calculations in Table I. 1 UU'B 1 The Gross National Product of the German Democratic Republic by Major Sectors, 1936 and 1950-1957 (In Million RM/DM at 1936 and I950 Prices) A. 1936 Prices ~ ~~ Agriculture Transport and Trade Total GNP Industty Year (Including Forestry) Construction Communications (EmploymentMethod) (Eastern Coverage) 2,911.322 I ,020.854 1,372.780 2,208.000 159299.355 '936 7, 786.399 1 I950 2,043.655 5,863.832 445.092 13344.2 I7 1,750.944 11,447.740 I '95' 2,362.229 6,838.070 539.01 1 12479.407 1,702.368 12,921.085 I952 2,647.247 794'7.964 572.699 1,612.232 1,987.200 14,237.342 '953 2,214.997 89577.292 672.742 1,687.135 2,055548 15,207.814 '954 2,231.980 99323.925 745.223 1,836.721 2,115.264 16,253.1 13 7955 22267.747 9,996.399 863.642 1,947.377 2,148.384 179223.549 I956 1,991.162 10,536-985 1,063.730 2,041.938 2,2 10.208 17,844.023 '957 2, I2I .724 I 1,203.013 1,317.973 2,180.642 2,214.624 19,037.966 Index Index Services Index Trade Year 1936 = 100 1950 = IOO (Rough Estimate) (WesternGNP Coverage)' 1936 = loo I~~~~*IOO(Deflation Method) I I 1 I 1 1 1 '936 100.0 '33.7 2,721 18,020 100.0 127.4 I 2,208 I 1 I I 1 I950 74.8 100.0 2,701 78.5 100.0 '95' 84-5 I 13.0 2,660 86.5 110.2 I952 93.1 124.5 2,533 93.1 I 18.6 '953 99.4 132.9 2,574 98.7 125.7 '954 106.2 142.0 2,835 105.9 134.9 '955 112.6 150.5 2,769 110.9 '41.3 I956 I 16.6 '55.9 2,868 1 '4.9 146.4 '957 124.4 166.3 2,894 121.7 155.0 I. Trade included as estimated by employment method. Table I (continued) ~ Agriculture Transport and Trade Total CNP Year Industry Construction (Including Forestry) Communications (EmploymentMethod) (Eastern Coverage) I936 5,575.457 15,668-999 1,995770 1,838.507 39859.584 289938.3 17 '950 49163.995 10,472.226 832.236 13837.472 3,060.650 203368.579 '95' 4,847-190 12,242.140 I ,015.846 2,019.697 2,975-739 23,100.612 I952 5,525.591 13,406.815 1,079.711 2,203.141 3,473.626 25,688.984 '953 4,635.552 151573.300 19247.356 2,306.594 39593.273 279356.075 I '954 4,697.143 16,944.3 16 '7347.145 27512.705 37697.481 297198.790 '955 43872.536 18,025.652 '7536.743 2,674.618 3,755.375 30,864.924 '956 43368.380 '89924.496 2,233.267 2,804. I 5 I 3,863.444 329193.738 '957 4,926.688 20,186.913 29253.214 3,003.684 3,871. '63 343241.672 Index Index Services QNP' Index Index Trade Year = 100 1950 = (Rough Estimate) (Western Coverage) 1936 = IOO = too (Deflation Method) 1 1936 IOO 1950 '936 100.0 142.0 39374 32,312 100.0 I 36.2 3,860 I950 70.4 100.0 39349 23,716 73.4 100.0 3957' '95' 79.8 1 13.4 3,298 26,399 81.7 111.3 4,118 I952 88.8 126.1 3,141 28,830 89.2 121.5 47326 '953 94-5 134.2 32'9' 309547 94.5 I 28.7 4,568 '954 100.9 143.3 39515 32.7'4 101.2 137.9 4,772 I955 I 06.7 151.6 39433 34,298 106.1 '44.6 5,026 I956 I 11.2 I 58.0 3,556 35,750 I 10.6 150.7 5,336 I957 I 18.3 167.6 39589 37983' 117.1 '59.5 5,359 Table I (continued) (In Billion RM/DM at 1936 Prices) C. Federal Rcfiublic' Index Index Index Index Year (Total) GNP' (Adjusted) GNP 1936 = 100 1950 = 100 1936 = 100 1950 - 100 '936 47.928 100.0 87.4 41.188 100.0 90.7 I 100.0 '950 54.845 I '4.4 100.0 45.445 10.3 '95' 62.734 '30.9 I '4.4 53.058 I 28.8 I 16.8 1952 66.664 '39.1 121.6 56.573 '37.4 I 24.6 '953 7 1.556 '49.3 '30.5 60.996 148.1 134.3 '954 77.520 161.7 '41.3 66.536 161.5 '46-4 '955 85.805 179.0 156.4 74.27' 180.3 163.5 3. Stalistischcs Jdrbuch FR., 1956 ed., p.