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Portsmouth Shopping Study 2009 Update

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Portsmouth Shopping Study 2009 Update COLLIERS CRE PORTSMOUTH CITY COUNCIL PORTSMOUTH SHOPPING STUDY – UPDATE OCTOBER 2009 VOLUME 1 MAIN REPORT Colliers CRE Portsmouth City Council October 2009 Portsmouth Shopping Study - Update CONTENTS (Volume 1) PAGE 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................1 Background Context ............................................................................................................1 Terms of Reference .............................................................................................................1 Study Approach ...................................................................................................................2 Structure of the Report.........................................................................................................3 2.0 RETAILING – TRENDS AND NATIONAL CONTEXT ........................................................5 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................5 Retailing – Periods of Rapid Change...................................................................................5 Early 1990s Recession ........................................................................................................8 Retail Evolution Since the Mid 1990s ..................................................................................9 Out of Town Retailing ........................................................................................................12 E-tailing ..............................................................................................................................15 The Credit Crunch and Its Effects on the Retail Economy.................................................16 Summary............................................................................................................................20 3.0 SUB-REGIONAL SHOPPING PATTERNS.......................................................................21 Introduction ........................................................................................................................21 Catchment Area Definition .................................................................................................21 Assessment of the Portsmouth City Retail Economy ........................................................22 Portsmouth City Centre Catchment Area...........................................................................26 Centre Dominance .............................................................................................................27 Characteristics of Shopper Behaviour ...............................................................................28 Summary............................................................................................................................31 4.0 THE PORTSMOUTH CITY RETAIL ECONOMY: OVERVIEW AND QUALITATIVE NEED ........................................................................................................33 The Portsmouth Shopping Hierarchy.................................................................................33 Portsmouth City Centre......................................................................................................34 Gunwharf Quays ................................................................................................................41 Southsea Town Centre ......................................................................................................44 Cosham .............................................................................................................................47 Fratton................................................................................................................................50 North End/London Road ....................................................................................................53 Albert Road ........................................................................................................................56 Out of Centre Retailing ......................................................................................................59 The Need for Additional Retail Development.....................................................................60 Assessment of Qualitative Need........................................................................................63 Summary............................................................................................................................66 5.0 QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED ASSESSMENT: DATA SOURCES AND ASSUMPTIONS........................................................................................................68 Objectives .........................................................................................................................68 Quantitative Retail Need Methodology ..............................................................................68 The Household Telephone Survey ....................................................................................70 Principal Data Sources ......................................................................................................72 Interpretation and Definitions .............................................................................................73 i Colliers CRE Portsmouth City Council October 2009 Portsmouth Shopping Study - Update 6.0 QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: METHODOLOGY AND ASSESSMENT ......................84 Objectives ..........................................................................................................................84 2006 Sub-Regional Town Centres Study and Floorspace Capacity Assessment .............85 Our Approach to Retail Floorspace Need ..........................................................................88 Analysis: Comparison Goods.............................................................................................89 Analysis: Convenience Goods ..........................................................................................97 Summary .........................................................................................................................100 7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..............................................................102 Introduction ......................................................................................................................102 The Need for Additional Floorspace ................................................................................102 Retail Need in Portsmouth City as a Whole.....................................................................105 Need Disaggregated by Centre/Location ........................................................................106 A Comparison to the Results of the 2007 Shopping Study .............................................108 Recommendations ..........................................................................................................110 Interpreting the Retail Floorspace Need Estimates .........................................................113 ii Colliers CRE Portsmouth City Council October 2009 Portsmouth Shopping Study - Update APPENDICES (Volume 2) Appendix 1: Household Telephone Survey (A) Survey Methodology and Sampling (B) Survey Questionnaire Appendix 2: Experian Data (Technical Assumptions) (A) Definition of Convenience and Comparison Goods (Extract) (B) Convenience and Comparison Goods Expenditure Per Head (C) Expenditure Forecasts (April 2009) (D) Forecast of Special Forms of Trading (Extract) (E) Changing Store Productivities Appendix 3: Retail Floorspace Data (A) Existing Retail Floorspace of City, Town and District Centres (B) Out of Centre Retail Warehouses: Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers (C) Out of Centre Superstores: Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers (D) Retail Floorspace Commitment: Floorspace and Estimated Benchmark Turnovers Appendix 4: Retail Floorspace Need Assessment (A) Methodology for Assessing Retail Floorspace Need (B) The Need for Additional Comparison Goods (C) The Need for Additional Convenience Goods (D) The Need for Additional Comparison Goods: Scenario 2 Appendix 5: Maps of City, Town and District Centres This Report has been prepared by: Colliers CRE, Marylebone Lane London W1U 1HL www.collierscre.com Contact: Dr Richard Doidge Tel: +44 (0)20 7344 6872 iii Colliers CRE Portsmouth City Council October 2009 Portsmouth Shopping Study - Update 1. INTRODUCTION Background Context 1.1 Colliers CRE was originally instructed by Portsmouth City Council in January 1998 to prepare a shopping study of the city. The main objective of the report, which was published in July 1998, was to quantify the need for additional retail floorspace through to 2011 and to advise on how it should be distributed across the city. 1.2 In March 2004, Portsmouth City Council instructed Colliers CRE to update the 1998 Shopping Study. The report was published in December 2004. Its main purpose was to update the quantitative assessment of retail floorspace need and to extend the forecast period to 2016. 1.3 In April 2007, the City Council approached Colliers CRE about preparing a further update of the shopping study, focusing once again on a quantitative assessment of retail floorspace need and extending the forecast period (again) to 2026 in order to ensure consistency with the emerging Local Development Framework (LDF).
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