Guidance Document March 2017 – 15-1623 Table of Contents Ii
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PROJECT NO.: 15-1623 |MARCH 2017 Submitted to: Submitted by: Transport Canada Dillon Consulting Limited 275 Sparks St 1149 Smythe Street Ottawa, ON K1A 0N5 Suite 200 Fredericton, NB E3B 3H4 Table of Contents i Table of Contents Acronyms, Abbreviations, Definitions 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Purpose of ARA Methodology ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Limitations of the ARA Methodology ............................................................................................. 1 1.2.1 Source and Type of Oil Spills ............................................................................................... 1 1.2.2 Locations and Root Causes of Oil Spills ............................................................................... 2 1.2.3 Consequences of Oil Spills .................................................................................................. 2 2.0 Overview of ARA Methodology 4 2.1 Principles of Risk Management ...................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Establishing Context ....................................................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 Definition of Oil Categories ................................................................................................. 6 2.2.2 Definition of ARA Methodology Study Area ....................................................................... 7 2.2.3 Definition of Spill Volumes .................................................................................................. 9 2.3 Risk Assessment Approach ...........................................................................................................11 2.3.1 Phase 1 – Frequency of Spill .............................................................................................12 2.3.2 Phase 2 – Scenario Selection ............................................................................................12 2.3.3 Phase 3 – Probability of Exposure .....................................................................................12 2.3.4 Phase 4 – Risk Assessment ................................................................................................13 3.0 Phase 1 – Frequency of Spill 14 3.1 Frequency and Location of Accident ............................................................................................14 3.2 Frequency and Volume of Oil Spill ................................................................................................15 3.3 Oil Spill Frequencies at OHFs ........................................................................................................18 4.0 Phase 2 – Scenario Selection 19 4.1 Method 1 – Highest Priority Scenarios based on Total Frequency ..............................................19 4.2 Method 2 – Highest Priority Scenarios based on Oil Spill Volume ...............................................23 5.0 Phase 3 – Probability of Exposure 25 5.1 Location of Spill .............................................................................................................................25 5.2 Volume of Spill and Oil Category ..................................................................................................25 5.3 Oil Thresholds ...............................................................................................................................25 5.4 Other Parameters .........................................................................................................................25 Transport Canada Area Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Ship-Source Oil Spills in Canadian Waters - Guidance Document March 2017 – 15-1623 Table of Contents ii 5.5 Spill Response ...............................................................................................................................26 5.6 Calculation of the POE Scores in Each Grid Cell............................................................................26 6.0 Phase 4 – Risk Assessment 29 6.1 Frequency of Exposure (FOE) .......................................................................................................30 6.2 Consequence of Exposure (COE) ..................................................................................................30 6.3 Risk Score (RiskS) ...........................................................................................................................31 7.0 References 34 Figures Figure 2-1: How the ARA Methodology Defines Risk ................................................................................. 4 Figure 2-2: ARA Methodology – Principles Based on CAN/CSA-ISO 31000-10 .......................................... 5 Figure 2-3: Simplified ARA BowTie Diagram ............................................................................................... 5 Figure 2-4: Oil Categories Included in ARA Methodology .......................................................................... 7 Figure 2-5: Grid Layers That Compose a Grid Cell ...................................................................................... 8 Figure 2-6: Bay of Fundy Grid Cell Map ...................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2-7: ARA Methodology Decision Flow Chart .................................................................................11 Figure 3-1: SAMSON Model Inputs and outputs ......................................................................................14 Figure 3-2: Example FOS Map for Spills >0.01 m3 – Southern Portion of BC Pilot Area ...........................17 Figure 3-3: Example FOS Map for Spills >30,000 m3 – Southern Portion of BC Pilot Area .......................18 Figure 4-1: Step 2 of Scenario Selection - Comparison of FOS Maps .......................................................21 Figure 4-2: Identification of Largest Oil Spill Volume Scenarios ..............................................................24 Figure 5-1: Example POS Map for a Level 1 oil Spill near Saint John Harbour – Species at Risk on the Water Surface – Summer (unmitigated) .................................................................................28 Figure 6-1: ARA Methodology – Calculation of Risk Score .......................................................................29 Figure 6-2: Risk Score Roll-Up Scheme - Grid Cell with No Shoreline ......................................................32 Figure 6-3: Risk Score Roll-Up Scheme - Grid Cell with Shoreline ............................................................32 Figure 6-4: Example RiskS Map - Level 1 oil Spill near Saint John Harbour – Summer (Unmitigated) .....33 Tables Table 1-1: Limitations on the Application of the ARA Methodology ......................................................... 2 Table 2-1: ARA Methodology Oil Categories .............................................................................................. 6 Table 2-2: ARA Methodology Study Area Limitations ................................................................................ 7 Table 2-3: Oil Spill Volume Types in ARA Methodology ...........................................................................10 Transport Canada Area Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Ship-Source Oil Spills in Canadian Waters - Guidance Document March 2017 – 15-1623 Table of Contents iii Table 2-4: Spill Volume Classes in ARA Methodology ..............................................................................10 Table 2-5: Primary Inputs to Determine Frequency of Spill .....................................................................12 Table 3-1: SAMSON Model Accident Types ..............................................................................................15 Table 3-2: Frequency of Spill (FOS) Categories, Scoring, Description, Definitions and Colour Code .......16 Table 4-1: Analysis of Sample SAMSON Outputs for Grid Cell in Vancouver Harbour (Refer to Figure 4-1) ................................................................................................................................................22 Table 5-1: SIMAP Model inputs ................................................................................................................26 Table 5-2: Probability of Exposure (POE) Categories, Scoring, Description, Definitions and Colour Code27 Table 5-3: List of Attributes Available to the User to Generate a POE Map ............................................27 Table 6-1: Frequency of Exposure (FOE) Categories, Scoring, Description and Colour Code ..................30 Table 6-2: Consequence of Exposure (COE) Categories, Scoring, Description and Colour Code .............31 Table 6-3: RiskS Category, Description and Colour Code ..........................................................................33 Appendices A Glossary B ARA BowTie C Oil Categories D Frequency of Spill (FOS) Model E Probability of Exposure (POE) Model F Consequence of Exposure (COE) Model Transport Canada Area Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Ship-Source Oil Spills in Canadian Waters - Guidance Document March 2017 – 15-1623 Acronyms, Abbreviations, Definitions iv Acronyms, Abbreviations, Definitions AIS Automatic Identification System API American Petroleum Institute ARA Area Risk Assessment CCG Canadian Coast Guard COE Consequence of Exposure FOE Frequency of Exposure FOS Frequency