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By Antony Green NSW Legislative Assembly election 2011: Two-party preferred results by polling place Background Paper No 1/2012 by Antony Green RELATED PUBLICATIONS 2011 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results by Antony Green (Background Paper No 3/2011) 2011 NSW Election Preview – Analysis of past voting patterns by electorate by Antony Green (Background Paper No 1/2011) NSW Legislative Assembly Elections 2007: Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place Antony Green (Background Paper No 2/2009) NSW Legislative Assembly Elections 2003: Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place Antony Green (Background Paper No 7/2003) ISSN 1325-4456 ISBN 978 0 7313 1886 5 February 2012 © 2012 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent from the New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. NSW Legislative Assembly election 2011: Two-party preferred results by polling place by Antony Green NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE Gareth Griffith (BSc (Econ) (Hons), LLB (Hons), PhD), Manager, Politics & Government/Law .......................................... (02) 9230 2356 Lenny Roth (BCom, LLB), Senior Research Officer, Law ....................................................... (02) 9230 3085 Daniel Montoya (BEnvSc (Hons), PhD), Research Officer, Environment/Planning ..................................... (02) 9230 2003 Nathan Wales (BSc/BA, PhD) Research Officer, Environment/Planning..................................... (02) 9230 2906 Talina Drabsch (BA, LLB (Hons)), Research Officer, Social Issues/Law ........................................... (02) 9230 2484 Elsa Koleth (BA Comm (Hons), LLB (Hons) Research Officer, Social Issues/Law ........................................... (02) 9230 2484 John Wilkinson (MA, PhD), Research Officer, Economics ........... (02) 9230 2006 Should Members or their staff require further information about this publication please contact the author. Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/publications.nsf/V3LIstRPSubject Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. The Author Antony Green is the Election Analyst for ABC Television and has worked for the ABC on every federal, state and territory election coverage since 1989. Antony studied at Sydney University and holds a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. Antony produces regular publications on electoral matters for the NSW Parliamentary Library. Acknowledgments I would like to thank the NSW Electoral Commissioner Mr Colin Barry and the staff of his Commission for making results of the 2011 election available by polling place in computer readable format. The author takes responsibility for the calculations in tables shown as including estimated two- candidate or two-party preferred results. Abbreviations Exhst Exhausted ALP Australian Labor Party IND Independent GRN Greens LIB Liberal Party NAT The Nationals Table of Contents Highest Primary Vote Tables Page Liberal Party 1 The Nationals 2 Australian Labor Party 3 The Greens 4 Christian Democratic Party 5 Family First 6 Independents 7 Lowest Primary Vote Tables Liberal Party 8 The Nationals 9 Australian Labor Party 10 Vote by Vote Type Percentage Party Vote by Vote Type at 2011 Election 11 Percentage of Votes Cast by Vote Type - NSW Elections 1984-2011 11 Two Party Preferred Tables Albury 13 Auburn 14 Ballina 15 Balmain (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 16 Bankstown 18 Barwon 19 Bathurst 20 Baulkham Hills 21 Bega 22 Blacktown 23 Blue Mountains 24 Burrinjuck 25 Cabramatta 26 Camden 27 Campbelltown 28 Canterbury 29 Castle Hill 30 Cessnock 31 Charlestown 32 Clarence 33 Coffs Harbour 34 Coogee 35 Cronulla 36 Davidson 37 Drummoyne 38 Two Party Preferred Tables Page Dubbo (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 39 East Hills 41 Epping 42 Fairfield 43 Gosford 44 Goulburn 45 Granville 46 Hawkesbury 47 Heathcote 48 Heffron 49 Hornsby (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 50 Keira 52 Kiama 53 Kogarah 54 Ku-ring-gai 55 Lake Macquarie (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 56 Lakemba 58 Lane Cove 59 Lismore 60 Liverpool 61 Londonderry 62 Macquarie Fields 63 Maitland 64 Manly 65 Maroubra 66 Marrickville (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 67 Menai 69 Miranda 70 Monaro 71 Mount Druitt 72 Mulgoa 73 Murray-Darling 74 Murrumbidgee 75 Myall Lakes 76 Newcastle 77 North Shore 78 Northern Tablelands (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 79 Oatley 81 Orange 82 Oxley 83 Parramatta 84 Penrith 85 Pittwater 86 Port Macquarie (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 87 Port Stephens 89 Riverstone 90 Two Party Preferred Tables Page Rockdale 91 Ryde 92 Shellharbour 93 Smithfield 94 South Coast 95 Strathfield 96 Swansea 97 Sydney (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 98 Tamworth (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 100 Terrigal 102 The Entrance 103 Toongabbie 104 Tweed 105 Upper Hunter 106 Vaucluse 107 Wagga Wagga 108 Wakehurst 109 Wallsend 110 Willoughby 111 Wollondilly 112 Wollongong (with additional 2-candidate preferred table) 113 Wyong 115 Introduction This publication provides detailed analysis of two-party and two-candidate preferred results by polling place for the 2011 New South Wales election. The publication is the latest in a series first published by the Parliamentary Library after the 1991 election, and is a companion to last year's publication "2011 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results", (Background Paper No 3/2011). As well as two-party and two-candidate preferred results, several tables of first preference results by polling place are provided on pages 1-10. These tables highlight polling places across the state where selected registered parties recorded their highest and lowest percentage first preference vote. Two tables are provided on page 11 detailing the proportion of vote by vote type. The first table provides a detailed breakdown of the 2011 election, showing percentage first preference, informal and two-party preferred vote by party by vote type. The second table shows the changing proportion of vote by vote type at New South Wales elections since 1984. This table highlights the declining proportion of the vote taken on polling day as well as the rise in postal and pre-poll voting. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results. The two-candidate preferred count in a contest is defined as the final tally of votes for the two remaining candidates in a contest after the successive exclusion and distribution of preferences from ballot papers for other candidates in the contest. In most cases, the final pairing of candidates will represent a contest between the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition, a pairing that is also referred as a two-party preferred count. At the 2011 election, 66 of the 93 two-candidate preferred contests were two-party preferred contests between Labor and Coalition candidates. There were 27 contests that did not finish as two-party preferred contests, and additional preference counts were performed after the election to determine separate two-party preferred totals. A full summary of two-party and two-candidate preferred results by electorate can be found on pages 31-33 of "2011 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results", (Background Paper No 3/2011). This publication concentrates on actual preference counts conducted by polling place, with a limited number of additional tables providing estimated polling place preference counts. A table of two-party preferred results by polling place is provided for each of the state’s 93 Legislative Assembly districts, along with an additional 10 tables of two-candidate preferred results by polling place. Of the 103 tables, 92 are based on actual preference counts by polling places. The remaining 11 tables provide estimated counts after preferences by polling place. Estimates have been calculated by applying an electorate's distribution of preferences to the first preference votes recorded by candidate in each polling place. The 10 tables of estimated two-party preferred results are for Balmain, Dubbo, Hornsby, Lake Macquarie, Marrickville, Northern Tablelands, Port Macquarie, Sydney, Tamworth and Wollongong. Estimated two-candidate preferred results by polling place are provided for Balmain, where the closeness of the contest prevented the Electoral Commission from carrying out preference counts by polling place. Changes to Counting Procedures As at past elections, the NSW Electoral Commission conducted indicative preference counts in polling places on election night between pairings of candidates nominated before the close of polls. For the first time, at the 2011 election these indicative preference counts were check-counted for accuracy after polling day, and in several electorates re-done to reflect the order in which candidates finished. These check-counted totals are the basis of this publication. Having provided more accurate polling place preference counts, the Electoral Commission dispensed with conducting a formal distribution of preferences in electorates
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