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Economic Survey, Spring 2021 Economic Survey Spring 2021 Economic Prospects Publications of the Ministry of Finance – 2021:23 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2021:23 Economic Survey Spring 2021 Economics Department Ministry of Finance, Helsinki 2021 Publication sale Online bookstore of the Finnish Government vnjulkaisumyynti.fi Publication distribution Institutional Repository for the Government of Finland Valto julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi Ministry of Finance © 2021 Authors and Ministry of Finance ISBN pdf: 978-952-367-497-4 ISSN pdf: 1797-9714 Layout: Government Administration Department, Publications Helsinki 2021 Description sheet 12 May 2021 Economic Survey, Spring 2021 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2021:23 Subject Economic Prospects Publisher Ministry of Finance Group Author Economics Department Language Finnish Pages 112 Abstract Finland’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2021, 2.5% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. The growth will accelerate towards the end of 2021 and the upturn will also boost economic growth in 2022. The economy will not fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic until the end of 2021 as the substantial increase in new cases in spring 2021 will continue to cast a shadow on economic activ-ities. Domestic demand for services will remain weak and Finnish exports are affected by the con-tinuation of the pandemic. The economy will only get back to normal when the epidemic can be considered to be under control. The forecast is based on the assumption that the COVID-19 incidence will fall to a low level by summer 2021 as a result of restrictions, vaccinations and seasonal variation of the disease. Re-strictions can be relaxed and lifted when the disease is no longer spreading. General government deficit will contract sharply in 2022 as the support measures prompted by the COVID-19 epidemic will come to an end and the economy will recover. However, the general government deficit will persist. Public debt-to-GDP ratio will increase from the current level of 70% to over 75% by the year 2025. Keywords economic prospects, public finance, economic development, draft budget ISBN PDF 978-952-367-497-4 ISSN PDF 1797-9714 URN address http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-367-497-4 Kuvailulehti 12.05.2021 Taloudellinen katsaus, kevät 2021 Valtiovarainministeriön julkaisuja 2021:23 Teema Talousnäkymät Julkaisija Valtiovarainministeriö Yhteisötekijä Kansantalousosasto Kieli Suomi Sivumäärä 112 Tiivistelmä Bruttokansantuotteen arvioidaan kasvavan 2,6 % v. 2021, 2,5 % v. 2022 ja 1,5 % v. 2023. Vuoden 2021 loppua kohden kiihtyvä kasvu nostaa myös vuoden 2022 talouskasvua. Talouden selvä toipuminen covid-19-pandemiasta siirtyy vuoden 2021 loppupuolelle, sillä tautitapausten määrän voimakas nousu vuoden 2021 keväällä luo edelleen epävarmuutta taloudenpitäjien toiminnalle. Kotimaassa palveluiden kysyntä pysyy edelleen heikkona ja vienti kärsii pandemian jatkumisesta. Talous voi normalisoitua vasta, kun epidemiatilanteen voidaan arvioida olevan hallinnassa. Ennuste perustuu oletukselle, että covid-19-epidemiaan liittyvien tautitapausten ilmaantuvuus painuu matalalle tasolle kesään 2021 mennessä rajoitusten, rokotusohjelman edistymisen sekä taudin kulkuun liittyvän kausivaihtelun seurauksena. Vakaa epidemiatilanne mahdollistaa rajoitusten lieventämisen ja purkamisen. Julkisen talouden alijäämä pienenee v. 2022 voimakkaasti, kun covid-19-epidemian vuoksi päätetyt tukitoimet päättyvät ja talous elpyy. Julkinen talous jää kuitenkin edelleen alijäämäiseksi. Julkinen velka suhteessa bruttokansantuotteeseen kasvaa nykyisestä vajaasta 70 prosentista yli 75 prosenttiin vuoteen 2025 mennessä. Asiasanat talousnäkymät, julkinen talous, taloudellinen kehitys, budjettiesitys ISBN PDF 978-952-367-497-4 ISSN PDF 1797-9714 Julkaisun osoite http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-367-497-4 Presentationsblad 12.5.2021 Ekonomisk översikt, våren 2021 Finansministeriets publikationer 2021:23 Tema Ekonomiska utsikter Utgivare Finansministeriet Utarbetad av Ekonomiska avdelningen Språk Finska Sidantal 112 Referat Bruttonationalprodukten beräknas öka med 2,6 procent 2021, 2,5 procent 2022 och 1,5 procent 2023. Den snabbare tillväxten mot slutet av 2021 leder även till ökad ekonomisk tillväxt 2022. Den tydliga ekonomiska återhämtningen från covid-19-pandemin skjuts fram till slutet av 2021, eftersom den kraftiga ökningen av antalet sjukdomsfall våren 2021 fortsättningsvis skapar osäkerhet för de ekonomiska aktörernas verksamhet. I Finland är efterfrågan på tjänster fortfarande svag och exporten lider av den fortsatta pandemin. Ekonomin kan normaliseras först när epidemiläget bedöms vara under kontroll. Prognosen bygger på antagandet att incidensen av sjukdomsfall inom covid- 19-epidemin kommer att sjunka till en låg nivå inför sommaren 2021 till följd av restriktioner, framsteg i vaccinationsprogrammet och säsongsvariationer i epidemins förlopp. I ett stabilt epidemiologiskt läge kan man lindra och häva begränsningar. Underskottet i de offentliga finanserna minskar kraftigt under 2022, när de stödåtgärder som vidtagits till följd av covid-19-epidemin upphör och ekonomin återhämtar sig. De offentliga finanserna kommer dock fortfarande att uppvisa ett underskott. Den offentliga sektorns skuld i förhållande till bruttonationalprodukten ökar från nuvarande cirka 70 procent till dryg 75 procent fram till 2025. Nyckelord ekonomiska utskiter, offentlig ekonomi, ekonomisk utveckling, budgetförslag ISBN PDF 978-952-367-497-4 ISSN PDF 1797-9714 URN-adress http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-367-497-4 The source for all data on materialised developments is Statistics Finland unless otherwise indicated. SYMBOLS AND CONVENTIONS USED - nil 0 less than half the final digit shown .. not available . not pertinent ** forecast CPB CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis HWWI Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Institut IMF International Monetary Fund MEAE Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment MoF Ministry of Finance MSAH Ministry of Social Affairs and Health Each of the figures presented in the tables has been rounded separately. Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2021:23 ECONOMIC SURVEY SPRING 2021 This Economic Survey offers projections of economic developments in 2021–2023. In addition to short-term prospects, it includes a medium-term economic outlook extending to 2025. The forecast and trend projections in the survey are prepared independently by the Ministry of Finance Economics Department based on the Act on the implementa- tion of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union and on multi-annual budgetary frameworks (869/2012). The forecasts are based on quarterly national accounts data published by Statistics Finland and on other public statistical sources available by 30 April 2021. The mac- roeconomic projections take account of the decisions taken by the Government in its spending limits discussions on 29 April 2021. Helsinki May 2021 Ministry of Finance Economics Department Mikko Spolander Director General Jukka Railavo Marja Paavonen Senior Financial Advisor Senior Financial Advisor Head of Macro Forecasting Head of Public Finance 7 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2021:23 Contents Preface ............................................................................................................. 9 Summary .......................................................................................................... 12 1 Economic outlook ...................................................................................... 30 1.1 Global economy .................................................................................. 30 1.1.1 Global economy will recover this year .................................................... 30 1.1.2 Financial markets are affected by uncertainties ........................................ 32 1.1.3 Inflation and long-term interest rates are on the rise .................................. 33 1.1.4 Rapid rise in raw material prices .......................................................... 33 1.1.5 World trade will recover and a period of rapid growth is expected................... 34 1.1.6 Risks are skewed to the downside ........................................................ 34 1.2 Foreign trade ...................................................................................... 36 1.2.1 Exports and imports .......................................................................................... 36 1.2.2 Prices and current account ................................................................. 38 1.3 Domestic demand ............................................................................... 39 1.3.1 Private consumption ........................................................................ 39 1.3.2 Public consumption ......................................................................... 44 1.3.3 Private investment .......................................................................... 45 1.3.4 Public investment .......................................................................... 48 1.4 Domestic procuction ........................................................................... 49 1.4.1 Total output .................................................................................. 49 1.4.2 Secondary production ...................................................................... 53 1.4.3 Services ....................................................................................... 56 1.5 Labour force ......................................................................................
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