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Risk Assessment of Water Area Covered by Tianjin VTS World Maritime University The Maritime Commons: Digital Repository of the World Maritime University Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations Maritime Safety & Environment Management 8-23-2015 Risk assessment of water area covered by Tianjin VTS Tong Gu Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.wmu.se/msem_dissertations Part of the Emergency and Disaster Management Commons, and the Risk Analysis Commons This Dissertation is brought to you courtesy of Maritime Commons. Open Access items may be downloaded for non-commercial, fair use academic purposes. No items may be hosted on another server or web site without express written permission from the World Maritime University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WORLD MARITIME UNIVERSITY Dalian, China RISK ASSESSMENT OF WATER AREA COVERED BY TIANJIN VTS By GU TONG The People’s Republic of China A research paper submitted to the World Maritime University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE (MARITIME SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT) 2015 © Copyright Gu Tong, 2015 i DECLARATION I certify that all the materials in this research paper that is not my own work have been identified, and that no material is included for which a degree has previously been conferred on me. The content of this research paper reflects my own personal views, and are not necessarily endorsed by the University. (Signature): Gu Tong (Date): July 2, 2015 Supervised by: Shi Guoyou Professor Dalian Maritime University Assessor: Co-assessor: ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This paper is developed as part of my studies to obtain the master degree of Maritime Safety and Environmental Management (MSEM) at WMU and DMU. I am profoundly grateful to all people who have supported and helped me in various ways during my studies. First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Tianjin VTS, Tianjin MSA, where I have worked for almost 5 years. It is my leaders and colleagues that provide me with this precious opportunity to join the MSEM program in Dalian, and they really helped me a lot with my research paper. I would like to thank my supervisor Professor Shi Guoyou, for his patience and encouragement and for guiding me through the process of this project. His help is indeed valuable. I must give my heartfelt thanks to all professors attending the MSEM 2015 program. Their professional knowledge broadened my eyesight and instilled in me new ideas and methodologies, without which the study would not have been completed. I remain very grateful to all the classmates of MSEM 2015. I thank them for their company and for sharing their views and experiences. Together we experienced a nice time in DMU. iii ABSTRACT Title of Research Paper: Risk Assessment of Water Area Covered by Tianjin VTS Degree: MSc Tianjin port is located in the central position of the Bohai port region of China and it is one of the most important foreign trade ports and the important node of Beijing Tianjin Hebei modernization comprehensive transportation network. With the rapid development of maritime economy, the vessel traffic flow is increasing sharply and marine traffic situation is becoming more and more complex, which brings harmful effects and difficulty on the communication order and traffic organization. How to do with the challenges faced by VTS, how to identify the key sources of risk, and how to optimize risk management have become a series of serious problems. This paper analyzes the characteristics of Navigation, collision avoidance and grounding avoidance in the area covered by Tianjin VTS, and identifies the distribution of ship flow in the area and the trend of water transportation accident, then concludes the preliminary risk factors in the VTS area. The author uses the PAWSA risk analysis method, which is necessary for risk identification, analysis, summary and identify risk level of each VTS partition for Tianjin VTS. After risk assessment, the author tries to come up with the safety recommendations and measures, hoping to do some help to set up new supervision mode of Tianjin VTS. iv KEYWORDS: Risk assessment, VTS, PAWSA, Ship accident, Statistics, Zoning management, Management mode, Assessment indexes, Risk value, Mitigation measures, Supervision mode v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ........................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................ viii LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................... x Chapter 1 Introduction .............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background of Research .................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research significance ......................................................................................... 1 1.3 Main research method ........................................................................................ 2 1.4 Domestic and foreign research status ................................................................. 2 1.4.1 Risk assessment ........................................................................................... 2 1.4.2 VTS supervision........................................................................................... 6 Chapter 2 Analysis of navigable environment in Tianjin VTS area...................... 8 2.1 Natural environment ........................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 Air temperature ............................................................................................ 8 2.1.2 Precipitation ................................................................................................. 8 2.1.3 Wind ............................................................................................................. 8 2.1.4 Fog ............................................................................................................... 9 2.1.5 Relative humidity ......................................................................................... 9 2.1.6 Disastrous weather ....................................................................................... 9 2.1.7 Tide .............................................................................................................. 9 2.1.8 Wave........................................................................................................... 10 2.1.9 Sea ice ........................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Port profile ........................................................................................................ 10 2.2.1 Status quo of Tianjin port ........................................................................... 10 2.2.2 Status quo of Tianjin VTS system and its planning .................................... 11 2.3 Traffic flow ....................................................................................................... 17 2.3.1 Statistical analysis of vessel traffic flow .................................................... 17 2.3.2 Ship size ..................................................................................................... 18 2.3.3 Ship type .................................................................................................... 19 vi 2.4 Ship accident .................................................................................................... 19 2.4.1 Ship accident types .................................................................................... 19 2.4.2 Accident time statistics .............................................................................. 20 2.4.3 Accident spatial distribution statistics ........................................................ 23 Chapter 3 Risk assessment of VTS area ................................................................ 27 3.1 The analysis process of PAWSA ...................................................................... 27 3.1.1 Expert weight distribution ......................................................................... 27 3.1.2 Risk degree of pre-assessment index ......................................................... 28 3.1.3 The risk degree of the whole pre-assessment index ................................... 29 3.1.4 Risk degree analysis of existing mitigation measures ............................... 29 3.1.5 Risk degree analysis of the proposed security measures ........................... 29 3.2 PAWSA for Tianjin VTS area ........................................................................... 30 3.2.1 Dividing water areas .................................................................................. 30 3.2.2 Pre-assessment index of navigation environment ...................................... 30 3.2.3 Weight distribution of the members of the expert group ..........................
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