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Full Page Photo C O N T E N T S Preface 4 Part I. Seminar “Methodology of complex researches” T. Chelidze, N. Zhukova, T. Matcharashvili Local seismic activity in Georgia dynamically triggered of by the great 2011 Japan earthquake 5 T. Matcharashvili, T. Chelidze, Z. Javakhishvili, N. Jorjiashvili, N. Zhukova, D. Tepnadze a Variation in the scaling characteristics of ambient noise at the increased local seismic activity 15 E. Alparslan, S. ønan, Ö..Sarkaya Processing Russan and European Earth ObservatIons for Earthquake Precursors Studes (pre-earthquakes) and TUBITAK MRC’s Role In the Project 36 V. Ediger, S. Ergintav Investigation of possible active faults in Istanbul land area and development of landslide determination and monitoring methodologies in Istanbul metropolitan area by multidiscipline researches 42 M. Ergin SISMOKUL - School Seismology 50 N. Kapanadze, G. Melikadze, Z. Machaidze, S. Kimotidze, K Bedianishvili Evolution of Methodology Multi-parametrical Observation on the Territory of Georgia 54 G. Kobzev, G. Melikadze, T. Jimsheladze New method of hydrodynamical data analyse 65 1 M. Chamati, P. Nenovski, M. Vellante, U.Villante, K. Schwingenscuh, M. Boudjada, V. Wesztergom Application of DFA method to magnetic field data 72 C. Tsabaris, D. L. Patiris, G. Eleftheriou, A. Prospathopoulos Marine Radioactivity measurements using in-situ HCMR installations 80 D. l. Patiris, C. Tsabaris, K. Ioannides, K. Stamoulis, K. Blekas Track image analysis code TRIAC II: A tool for fast and reliable counting of tracks recorded by SSNTD APPLICATION for spatial extensive radon surveys 90 A. Gregoriþ, B. Zmazek, J. Vaupotiþ. Methods for long-term radon time-series evaluation 100 N. Kilifarska Statistical methods for analysis of climatic time series and factors controlling their variability 111 Part II. Seminar “Experimental monitoring and analyze” S. Shanov, N. Dobrev Extensometric observations as earthquake precursors: Case study for the Black Sea area 125 N. Dobrev 3D monitoring of geological hazard processes in Bulgaria 135 Stanka Sebela, Ianez Mulec Activities in karst of Slovenia related to earthquake precursors 147 P. Nenovski, M. Chamati, U. Villante, M. De Lauretis, M. Vellante, P. Francia, V. Wesztergom, K. Schwingenschuh, M. Boudjada, G. Prattes DFA analysis of sigma magnetic field data around the M 6.3 AQUILA EQ 157 G. Melikadze, N. Kapanadze, G. Kobzev, T Jimsheladze Geodynamical Impact on the Hydrodynamic Field 164 2 C. Tsabaris, D. l. Patiris, G. Eleftheriou Radon measurements in the aquifer of grand sasso, L’ Aquila, italy 169 A. Gregoriþ, B. Zmazek, I. Kobal, J. Vaupotiþ Radon as earthquake precursor 175 V. Lytvynov Antarctica as the unique natural laboratory for determination of main reasons of earth’s global changes 183 V. Bakhmutov, S. Mavrodiev, T. Mozgova, G. Melnyk, O. Maksimenko, Z. Jordanova Geomagnetic-Quake as earthquakes precursor: data of some INTERMAGNET observatories during 01/01 - 08/01/2011 193 N. Khazaradze, G. Vanishvili, T. Bakradze, L.Kordzadze, M.Elizbarashvili, E. Bazerashvili Cosmo-Physical Approach to Earthquake Forecasting 202 Part III. Training “Geomagnetic precursors” T. Jimsheladze, G. Melikadze, G. Kikuashvili, S. Mavrodiev, L. Pekevski, M. Chkhitunidze Study of Geomagnetic Variations in Georgia and establishment the Anomaly Nature of Earthquake Precursors 205 3 Preface It is a big pleasure and great satisfaction to open our Workshop and training seminar in Tbilisi, Georgia. First, I would like to congratulate our guest Kiril Predov, Counselor Deputy Head of Bulgarian Ambassador Mission in Tbilisi as well as all participants: partners and guests. Second, let me remind you that the main purpose of BlackSeaHazNet project is a development of long-term research cooperation in the field of natural hazardous events related to the earthquakes (when, where and how) and climate change. The development of a prediction scheme for earthquake hazard and abrupt changes in climate requires diverse interdisciplinary efforts: complex monitoring and real time data acquisition system for preliminary archiving, testing, visualizing and analyzing the data and risks estimations. To achieve this goal, we try to consolidate our efforts for creation of coordinated joint program for exchange of data, know-how and scientists. The established partnership in experimental and theoretical aspects of geophysics is focused on the complex analyses of factors influencing preparation of earthquakes and climatic variability, as well as the possibilities for their prediction. The details of this complex analysis are described in our work program and we continue to fulfill it. Moreover, after the end of this workshop we have to start tracking all possible calls of FP7 framework, COST or other European research funding programs, in order to prepare and sent a new regional and Balkan projects, written by this interdisciplinary scientific consortium; the new project capable of formulation of more adequate paradigm of Earth seismic processes and Climate variability and the actual problem of their forecast. Let me wish you broadening and strengthening of your partnerships for better achievement of the goals of our BlackSeaHazNet project! Project coordinator Strachimir Mavrodiev 4 Training seminar “Geological and seismological precursors and analyses” LOCAL SEISMIC ACTIVITY IN GEORGIA DYNAMICALLY TRIGGERED OF BY THE GREAT 2011 JAPAN EARTHQUAKE T. CHELIDZE, N. ZHUKOVA, T. MATCHARASHVILI M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics of Iv. Javakhishvili State University Abstract. Introduction of new sensitive broadband seismographs, new dense seismic networks and new methods of signal processing lead to the breakthrough in triggering and synchronization studies and formation of a new important domain of earthquake seismology, related to dynamic triggering of local seismicity by wave trains from remote strong earthquakes. In the paper are considered the peculiarities of triggered seismicity in Georgia on the example of 11.03.2011great Tohoku earthquake in Japan. (M=9,) and moderated earthquake in East Greece (09. 03.2011). The study of seismic response of the lithosphere to a weak forcing is a fundamental problem for seismic source theory as it reveals the important detail of the tectonic system, namely, how close is it to the critical state. Last years introduction of new sensitive broadband seismographs, new dense seismic networks and new methods of signal processing lead to the breakthrough in triggering and synchronization studies and formation of a new important domain of earthquake seismology, related to dynamic triggering (DT) of local seismicity by wave trains from remote strong earthquakes (Hill, Prejean, 2009; Prejean, Hill, 2009; Hill, 2010). The trivial aftershocks’ area is delineated mainly by static stress generated by earthquake and decay rapidly with distance d as d-3, whereas the dynamically triggered stresses decay much slower (as d-1.5 for surface waves). That means that dynamic stresses generated by seismic wave trains can induce local seismicity quite far from the epicenter; they can be defined as remote aftershocks. The first well documented DT episode is connected with 1992 Landers earthquake, when the sudden increase of seismicity above background value (calculated as ȕ-statistic of Matthews and Reasenberg, 1988) after the main event was observed by many seismic stations at distances up to 1250 km with delays ranged from seconds to days. Later on DT was observed in different remote areas after Denali Fault 2002, Hector Mine 1999, Kurile 2007, Sumatra, 2004 and many other EQ, though most clearly the 5 effect is expressed in active extensional regime areas, as well as in volcanic and geothermal regions. The main characteristic of DT events are peak dynamic values of stress (Tp) or strain (İp); for shear waves Tp § G (up/vs) and İp § up/vs ; here G is the shear modulus, up is particle’ peak velocity and vs is velocity of the shear wave. Calculated from the field data give values of Tp from 0.01MPa to 1MPa (İp from 0.03 to 3 microstrain). Such large scatter is due to the impact of another important factor, namely, the local (site) strength of earth material, which is highly heterogeneous. Thus what matters is not the absolute value of Tp or İp, but the difference between local stress and local strength (resistance to failure). This is why in some areas high Tp do not trigger local seismicity and, on contrary, some areas manifest DT even at low peak stresses. One of main factors reducing local strength is the pore pressure of fluids, which is the scope of relatively new direction, so called hydroseismology (Costain and Bollinger, 2010). The stresses imparted by teleseismic wave trains according to assessments of D. Hill (2008) are 10 5 times smaller than confining stresses at the depth, where the tremors are generated. This is not surprising as the synchronization theory predicts that even smallest forcing is able to adjust the rhythms of oscillating systems (Pikovsky et al, 2003) In most cases triggering is observed during surface waves, especially during Rayleigh wave arrivals, i.e. long periods and large intensity of shacking are favorable for exciting remote triggered events. Periods in the range 20-30 sec are considered as most effective in producing triggered events for the same wave amplitude. In principle the optimal period of DT should depend on the earthquake preparation characteristic time and can change from dozens of seconds for microearthquakes to hours and days for moderate events. For tidal stresses with periods 12-24 h
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