June 2020 STRENGTHENING MOLDOVA’S Public Disclosure Authorized DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE Facing Current Issues and Future Challenges Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized © 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction Rights and Permissions and Development / International Development Association or The material in this work is subject to copyright. The World Bank Because The World Bank encourages dissemination 1818 H Street NW of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in Washington DC 20433 whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as Telephone: 202-473-1000 long as full attribution to this work is given. Internet: www.worldbank.org Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office This work is a product of the staff of The World of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street Bank with external contributions. The findings, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522- interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this 2422; e-mail: [email protected]. work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the Cover images: governments they represent. Gheorghe Popa / Shutterstock.com Serghei Starus / Shutterstock.com The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy Shirmanov Aleksey / Shutterstock.com of the data included in this work. The boundaries, FrimuFilms / Shutterstock.com colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment Inside images: on the part of The World Bank concerning the Bernd Zillich / Shutterstock.com legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The World Bank’s Engagement in Moldova The World Bank, like other international financial institutions and bilateral series of recent technical assistance activities focused on improving donors, has been supporting the Government of Moldova over many hydromet services and the disaster response capacity of the General years on the DRM and climate resilience agenda, including a Post- Inspectorate for Emergency Situations. However, the activities do not Disaster Needs Assessment after the 2010 floods, the Disaster and constitute an integrated approach, and a renewed effort is required. Climate Risk Management IDA (International Development Association) Given the complexity and cross-sectoral nature of the required DRM project (US$10 million, closed in 2015), and a Climate Adaptation Project reform actions, government commitment and ownership represent (US$27.2 million, approved in 2017 but canceled in 2018), as well as a critical prerequisites for success. 02 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 04 ABBREVIATIONS 05 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 07 CHAPTER 1. MOLDOVA DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK PROFILE 12 CHAPTER 2. INSTITUTIONAL, POLICY, AND LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR DRM 18 CHAPTER 3. ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT SITUATION IN MOLDOVA 22 Risk Identification 22 Risk Reduction 26 Emergency Response and Preparedness 31 Financial Protection 34 Resilient Recovery 36 CHAPTER 4. SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 40 ANNEX 1: REFERENCES AND KEY SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS 44 ANNEX 2: NATIONAL DRM-RELATED LAWS AND REGULATIONS IN MOLDOVA 46 ANNEX 3: MOLDOVA’S RECENT PROGRESS IN BUILDING DISASTER AND CLIMATERESILIENCE 47 ANNEX 4: OVERVIEW OF KEY INSTITUTIONS INVOLVED IN DRM IN MOLDOVA 48 ANNEX 5: OVERVIEW OF WORLD BANK ENGAGEMENT IN MOLDOVA 49 NOTES 50 Figure 1: Seismic Hazard Map for a 475-Year Ground Shaking and Geographical Distribution of Average Annual Losses Due to Earthquake-Related Direct Damages 14 Figure 2: Added Value in Agriculture and GDP Growth, 2001–2015 14 Figure 3: Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Moldova by 2050 15 Figure 4: Overview of Disasters in Moldova in the last 80 Years 16 Figure 5: Institutional Arrangements for Disaster Risk Management: Overview 20 Figure 6: Available Resources in Case of State of Emergency in Moldova 21 Figure 7: Moldova’s Recent Progress in Building Disaster and Climate Resilience 38 Box 1. The Abnormally Hot Summer of 2010 16 Box 2. DRM implications for COVID-19 crisis in Moldova 21 Box 3. Seismic Risk in Chisinau: The 1940 Earthquake, Then and Now 24 Box 4. International DRM Commitments: Moldova–EU Association Agreement 26 Box 5. Addressing Seismic Risk in Pre-1990s Large Panel Buildings in Bulgaria 28 Box 6: Strengthening the Structural Safety of Moldovan Hospitals 30 Box 7. Community Resilience & Private Sector involvement: the CSO experience in Bucharest 32 Box 8. Moldova’s Preparedness lessons learned from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic 34 Box 9. Considerations to strengthen existing DRM systems in light of ongoing COVID-19 health crisis 43 03 04 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This Disaster Risk Management (DRM) policy note The team gratefully acknowledges the data, was prepared by a World Bank team composed information, and other valuable contributions made of Axel Baeumler, senior infrastructure economist; by development partners—including the European Yann Kerblat, disaster risk management analyst; Commission, the European Bank of Reconstruction Alexei Ionescu, disaster risk management and Development, the European Investment Bank, consultant; Daniel Kull, senior disaster risk the United Nations Development Program, the management specialist; Anatol Gobjila, senior United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, agriculture economist; and Ahmet Kindap, and others—as well as representatives of the senior urban specialist. James Daniell, Antonios Government of Moldova. Anne Himmelfarb edited Pomonis, Anna Neuweiler, and Maryia Markhvida the report, and Jon Walton provided graphic design provided guidance and analytical support to better support. understand and articulate Moldova’s earthquake risk. In addition, Stephen Ling, lead environmental The team is grateful for the financial support specialist, Anna-Maria Bogdanova, disaster risk received from the Global Facility for Disaster management specialist, and Bogdan Topan, disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), which enabled risk management consultant, provided helpful this project. comments and insightful suggestions. This DRM policy note was prepared and developed under the guidance of David N. Sislen, practice manager, and Anna Akhalkatsi, Moldova country manager. ABBREVIATIONS CAT-DDO Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option CCA climate change adaptation DRM disaster risk management DRR disaster risk reduction ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean EIB European Investment Bank EU European Union GDP gross domestic product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GIES General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations ICT information and communications technology IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development INSARAG International Search and Rescue Advisory Group LPA Local Public Authority NAP National Adaptation Plan NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment PPRD East Prevention, Preparedness and Response to Natural and Man-made Disasters in the Eastern Partnership Countries SHS State Hydrometeorological Service UNDP United Nations Development Program UNDRR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction USAR Urban Search and Rescue 05 06 Briceni Soroca Bălți Orhei Ungheni Chișinău Bender Tiraspol Cahul EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Moldova is exposed to an array of natural hazards, but also other shocks and stresses, such as the and their impact disproportionately affects the ongoing COVID19 pandemic. Just like in the case poor. Floods, droughts, and severe weather events of a disaster, emergency responses’ effectiveness are the most recurring threats—but earthquakes, hinges on the overall institutional governance though rarer, could also have a devastating effect. arrangements not only at the national level but Projected rises in temperatures, rainfall volatility, also at the local level – with local authorities and incidence and severity of drought due to climate being at the frontline of combating the COVID-19 change are likely to render the impacts of disasters epidemic jointly with the DRM agency and different worse over the medium term. Moldova has some of sectoral actors. Local capacity is essential because the core institutional and legislative structures for Moldova’s ability to respond to COVID-19, or disaster risk management (DRM) in place, but—as any other shock or stress, is not just determined is common in many countries—the main emphasis by its level of preparedness and readiness to is on “reactive” disaster response, not necessarily cope with such complex crises, but also by the on “proactive” disaster risk reduction or disaster level of effectiveness of its governance systems risk mitigation. (particularly in urban areas), as well as its existing service delivery and infrastructure systems. The Government of Moldova has been strengthening institutions to better prepare for and In this DRM country policy note, chapter one respond to disasters. It has improved the ability provides an overview of Moldova’s disaster to forecast severe weather, including at the local and climate risk profile. Chapter two reviews level, through improved hydrometeorological the current institutional and legal framework for services; it has reduced the agricultural sector’s disaster risk management and financing, including vulnerability to climate change by improving measures and policies recently adopted. Chapter irrigation services, strengthening