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Company Update Company Update | Oldtown | 30 November 2012 (Member of Alliance Bank Group)

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Company Update Company Update | Oldtown | 30 November 2012 (Member of Alliance Bank Group) Company Update Company Update | Oldtown | 30 November 2012 (Member of Alliance Bank group) PP7766/03/2012 (029226) Oldtown Buy 30 November 2012 Consumer Bloomberg Ticker: OTB MK | Bursa Code: 5201 Analyst Selling pressure dissipating , a syariah-compliant stock now Ian Wan [email protected] We reaffirm our positive view on Oldtown as its business expansion plans are well on +603 2604 3919 track. Furthermore, recent profit taking activities which has dampened its share price may dissipate soon as local institutional investors with lower entry cost have already pared 12-month upside potential down significant portion of their stakes in the company amid rising foreign shareholding. Target price 2.49 We also noted that Oldtown has just been classified as a syariah-compliant stock by the Current price (as at 29 Nov) 1.93 Securities Commission today. We view all these as strong re-rating catalysts for Oldtown. Capital upside (%) 28.8 Hence, we reiterate our BUY call on Oldtown with unchanged TP of RM2.49, implying Net dividends (%) 3.6 28.8% capital upside with a decent yield of 3.6% in FY12. Total return (%) 32.4 3QCY12 analyst briefing key takeaways Oldtown held its 3QCY12 analyst briefing yesterday which was well attended by more Key stock information than 80 fund managers and analysts. Syariah-compliant? Yes To recap, Oldtown’s 3QCY12 revenue and core earnings contracted by 2.7% q-o-q and Market Cap (RM m) 636.9 6.8% q-o-q respectively. The q-o-q slowdown was mainly due to weak performances by Shares outstanding (m) 330.0 Free float (%) 37.7 both of its local F&B (3QCY12 revenue -4.6% q-o-q) and FMCG (3QCY12 revenue -15.5% 52-week high / low (RM) 2.29 / 1.02 q-o-q) segments, as the former was affected by lower sales during the Ramadan fasting 3-mth avg volume ('000) 985.4 month (Aug 2012) while the latter faces stiffer competition following a few launching of 3-mth avg turnover (RM m) 1.9 new white coffee by its competitors since Sept 2012. Going forward, management will focus on capturing a larger share of the Muslim Share price performance consumer market in Malaysia, which represents 67% of the country population but only 1M 3M 6M makes up <20% of its existing customer base (improved from 15% in 2QCY12). Absolute (%) 1.0 -9.0 35.0 Management is currently working hard to achieve full JAKIM Halal certification for all of Relative (%) 5.3 -6.3 32.1 its local outlets by the end of 2012, which we view as a potential re-rating catalyst if the group successfully implement an effective marketing campaign to capitalise on its full Share price chart Halal status. With regards to its China expansion, the group has already opened 4 outlets as of today, of which 2 are in Guangzhou and 2 in Shenzhen. Going forward, the group plans to open another 1 outlet in Feb 2013, followed by an aggressive roll-out once its central kitchen in Foshan is ready for full operations in 1QCY13/2QCY13. As usual, we track the feedbacks and acceptance level of Oldtown’s products in China via Sina Weibo. As at 28 Nov 2012, we found close to 3.7m tweets related to Oldtown White Coffee as compared to 84k and 4k tweets found in Sept and June 2012 respectively. This indicates that Oldtown’s brand awareness in China has skyrocketed! With regards to the latest changes to its shareholding, foreign shareholding in Oldtown has further increased from 19.7% in early Sept 2012 to 26.4% as at 23 Nov 2012. Meanwhile, most of the local institutional investors have pared down most of their stakes in the company. Major shareholders % This leads us to believe that selling pressure on Oldtown may dissipate soon, as most of Oldtown International 50.1 the local institutional investors of Oldtown with lower entry cost have mostly taken their Neobalano Carpus 10.0 profit over the past 2-3 months. Maintain forecasts We keep our forecasts unchanged post the analyst briefing. Reiterate BUY recommendation with TP of RM2.49 We reiterate our BUY call with unchanged TP of RM2.49, based on 15x CY13 P/E. Again, we like Oldtown on 3 investment angles, i.e. (1) strong 3-year earnings CAGR of 26.9% driven by its aggressive expansion plan, especially its FMCG segment, (2) extremely scarce investment alternatives to ride on the rising coffee consumption in China, and (3) tremendous earnings potential from the untapped coffee market in China. Key risks include (1) threat of the new entrants who could imitate Oldtown's recipe and restaurant concept at a much competitive price, (2) higher costs pressure due to labour wages, rent and coffee bean, (3) slower than expected expansion plan, and (4) global economic slowdown which could hurt the F&B industry as a whole. All required disclosure and analyst certification appear on the last two pages of this report. Additional information is available upon request. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission Company Update | Oldtown | 30 November 2012 SNAPSHOT OF FINANCIAL AND VALUATION METRICS Figure 1 : Key financial data FYE 31 Dec FY10P* FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Revenue (RM m) 255.1 285.5 341.3 411.9 480.6 EBITDA (RM m) 59.5 58.0 78.9 92.7 105.2 EBIT (RM m) 46.7 44.2 59.5 71.7 87.8 Pretax profit (RM m) 43.4 51.9 60.3 73.0 89.9 Reported net profit (RM m) 31.7 40.2 45.2 54.7 67.4 Core net profit (RM m) 32.8 33.1 45.2 54.7 67.4 EPS (sen) 9.6 12.2 13.7 16.6 20.4 Core EPS (sen) 9.9 10.0 13.7 16.6 20.4 Alliance / Consensus (%) 105.2 108.1 N/A Core EPS growth (%) N/A 0.9 36.7 21.0 23.3 P/E (x) 19.4 19.3 14.1 11.6 9.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.1 6.1 5.1 4.1 3.2 ROE (%) 17.4 15.2 18.9 20.6 22.6 Net gearing (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net DPS (sen) - 6.5 7.0 8.5 10.5 Net dividend yield (%) - 3.4 3.6 4.4 5.4 BV/share (RM) 0.57 0.66 0.72 0.81 0.90 P/B (x) 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 * FY10 is a pro-forma account, which includes the contribution from the 8 subsidiaries which are not owned by Oldtown from Jan to May 2011. Note: For comparison purpose, we keep our forecasts financial year end at 31 Dec, although the company has proposed to change its financial year end to 31 March. We will adjust the changes accordingly as we approach the end of 2012. Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg Figure 2 : Forward P/E trend Figure 3 : Forward P/B trend Price Price 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.60 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.20 1.20 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.80 0.80 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jul-12 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-12 Nov-11 Nov-12 Mar-12 Sep-11 Sep-12 May-12 Nov-11 Nov-12 Mar-12 May-12 Min: PER -1Std: PER Avg: PER +1Std: PER Max: PER Min: -1Std: Avg: +1Std: Max: 5.7 x 7.6 x 9.5 x 12.2 x 14.9 x 1.2 1.6 1.92 2.4 3.0 Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg 2 Company Update | Oldtown | 30 November 2012 KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM ANALYST BRIEFING Huge untapped Muslim market in Malaysia Yesterday, Oldtown held its 3QCY12 analyst briefing which was well attended by more than 80 fund managers and analysts. The company was represented by Mr. Lee Siew Heng (Group Managing Director), Mr. Alex Chuah (COO of FMCG segment) and Mr. Clarence Leon D’Silva (COO of F&B segment). 3QCY12 weak performance was To recap, Oldtown’s 3QCY12 revenue and core earnings contracted by 2.7% q-o-q and 6.8% mainly due to local business q-o-q respectively. The q-o-q slowdown was mainly due to weak performances by both of its local F&B (3QCY12 revenue -4.6% q-o-q) and FMCG (3QCY12 revenue -15.5% q-o-q) segments, as the former was affected by lower sales during the Ramadan fasting month (Aug 2012) while the latter faces stiffer competition following a few launching of new white coffee by its competitors since Sept 2012. On the positive front, both revenue from overseas F&B and FMCG segments registered encouraging growth of 5.1% q-o-q and 16.3% q-o-q. This reaffirms our view that overseas demand remains strong and once the new FMCG capacity kicks in by early 2013, revenue and earnings growth will start to pick up too. Figure 4 : Oldtown’s average F&B revenue per outlet Figure 5 : Oldtown’s 3QCY12 performance by segment Average F&B revenue/ outlet (RM k/ yr) Q-O-Q growth (RHS) RM m Revenue Q-O-Q growth 50.0 20.0% 1,200 15.0% 16.3% 11.7% 45.0 15.0% 1,000 40.0 10.1% 10.0% 10.0% 35.0 5.1% 5.0% 800 30.0 5.0% 25.0 0.0% 3.5% 600 20.0 -4.6% -5.0% 0.0% 15.0 -10.0% 400 10.0 -15.5% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0 200 -5.6% - -20.0% -8.7% Local café outlets Local Foreign Foreign café 0 -10.0% manufacturing ofmanufacturing of outlet 2QCY11 3QCY11 4QCY11 1QCY12 2QCY12 3QCY12 beverages beverages *Avg F&B revenue/ outlet would drop as more licensed outlets added in overseas market.
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