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BANCOSTA Weekly Market Report weekly market report Week 17/2021 (24 Apr – 30 Apr) Comment: Indonesian coal exports COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 17/2021 2 INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS 2020 proved to be a truly terrible exports performed particularly badly 85.6 mln tonnes, compared to a year for global seaborne coal trade. in the past 12 months, and that -8.3% y-o-y decline in overall global Total global loadings in the 12 Indonesia, Australia’s main coal exports in the same quarter. months of 2020 were down -12.7% competitor, would have benefitted. Indonesia again performed much year-on-year to 1130 million tonnes, However, you certainly don’t see this worse than the global average, according to vessels tracking data in the actual numbers. recording a steep -14.3% y-o-y from Refinitiv. In the 12 months of 2020, global decline in coal exports to 81.8 mln Despite all the global talk about Australian coal exports declined by tonnes in 1Q 2021. “going green” and “fight on carbon”, just -7.8% year-on-year to 357.8 mln The main coal export terminals in coal trade was still growing strongly tonnes. This was a smaller decline, Indonesia are: Samarinda (59.7 mln until 2019. It expanded by +2.5% in in percentage terms, than most tonnes loaded in 2020), Tabuneo 2019 and by 3.2% in 2018. other major coal exporters. Banjarmasin (54.3 mln t), Tanjung However, Covid-19 and its On the other hand, Indonesian coal Bara Sanggata (44.6 mln t), associated lockdowns proved a body exports in the 12 months of 2020 Balikpapan (24.2 mln t), Muara blow for coal demand. declined by as much as -18.7% year- Pantai (19.8 mln t), Sebamban (19.5 on-year to 314.1 mln tonnes. mln t), Adang Bay (19.4 mln t), China’s seaborne coal imports in Indonesia accounted for 27.8% of Tarakan Island (13.5 mln t), Muara 2020 declined by -8.2% y-o-y to Banyuasin (10.0 mln t), Muara Satui 242.0 mln tonnes. global coal exports in 2020, just second to Australia’s 31.7% share. (9.1 mln t), Bontang (9.0 mln t), India, the world’s second largest Pulau Laut (6.3 mln t), Tarahan (6.2 importer of coal, saw imports In the first 3 months of 2020, mln t), Asam Asam (4.5 mln t), decline by -11.4% y-o-y in 2020 to Indonesia exported 95.5 mln tonnes Tanjung Pemancingan (4.5 mln t). 186.0 mln tonnes. of coal, down -2.2% y-o-y. The worst performer by far in 2020 The second quarter of 2020 saw Trade patterns for Indonesian coal was the European Union, where coal shipments of just 74.7 mln tonnes of exports changed quite a lot last year. imports crashed by -32.4% y-o-y in coal from Indonesia, down a very About 32.8% of shipments, or 103.1 the 12 months of 2020 to just 68.6 sharp -22.9% y-o-y. mln tonnes in 2020, were sent to mln tonnes, from 101.5 mln tonnes In the third quarter, exports declined Mainland China, representing a in 2019. even more drastically by -31.6% y-o- -16.2% y-o-y contraction. Geopolitics also played a role, and a y to just 66.2 mln tonnes. About 22% of exports, or 69.5 mln lot of attention (way too much in The fourth quarter of 2020 saw 77.8 tonnes, were shipped to India, fact…) has been given in the media mln tonnes, which was still -18.0% recording a decline of -24.0% y-o-y. to the trade spat between China and on a year-on-year basis. Shipments to Japan were stable Australia, and to the effective ban on Things did not really change much in though, actually increasingly slightly Australian coal in China. the first quarter of 2021. by +1.1% y-o-y to 25.5 mln tonnes. Given how much coverage has been Australia, strangely enough, again Exports to South Korea declined by given to the ban on Australian coal, performed above average, recording -16.3% y-o-y to 19.4 mln tonnes. one could think that Australian a -5.2% y-o-y decline in 1Q 2021 to Indonesia - Coal Exports by Destination in Jan-Mar Indonesia - Monthly Coal Exports - Seasonality (Apr 2021 ; source: refinitiv ; seaborne only ; all bulkers ; in mln tonnes) (Apr 2021 ; source: refinitiv ; seaborne only ; all bulkers ; in mln tonnes) 40.0 38.0 35.0 34 36.0 32 34.0 30.0 28 27 32.0 25.0 21 30.0 20 20.0 28.0 mln tonnes mln 16 16 15.0 tonnes mln 26.0 11 24.0 10.0 8 6 6 6 22.0 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5.0 3 3 1 20.0 0.0 18.0 China PR India Japan S Korea Malaysia Philippines Taiwan CN Others/ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Unknown 2019 (1-3) 2020 (1-3) 2021 (1-3) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CHARTERING MARKET REPORT – WEEK 17/2021 3 CAPESIZE MARKET The Capesize market continued to dates. employment. soar, with the 5TC closing on Friday There has been a lot of activity out of Furthermore, the Atlantic market at $40,608/d, up more than $6,000 in Brazil with C3, with Vale, Trafigura, was supported, with front haul a week. With all miner constantly in and other operators taking several trading at around $64,000/d and T/A the market, the Standard C5 West capes. The route quickly reached at around $40,000/d. Aus/China has seen rates rise to low highs of $28/mt and $29/mt for Some activity registered for a period $13/mt for mid-May dates and TCE mid/end May dates, and lows of with a mid/high 20,000/d agreed at very high $30/40,000. $29/mt were traded for first-half upon for a one-year period basis dely The Saldanha/Qingdao route June dates. This means that the TCE prompt China depending on vessel increased by $1.5 per week, from basis Brazil RV reached mid description/position. $20.50/mt to $22/mt for end-of-May $30,000/d for 90 days of BCI TC & CAPESIZE 1-YR TC (USD/DAY) CAPESIZE Unit 30-Apr 23-Apr W-o-W Y-o-Y 40,000 BCI TC Average usd/day 40,608 34,762 +16.8% +427.2% 30,000 C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 42,600 37,450 +13.8% +579.4% 20,000 C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 35,227 30,144 +16.9% +318.4% 10,000 C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 40,692 32,704 +24.4% +468.4% 0 Newcastlemax 1-Y Period usd/day 31,000 27,500 +12.7% +87.9% Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21 Capesize 1-Y Period usd/day 27,500 24,500 +12.2% +103.7% 1-YR TC BCI TC PANAMAX MARKET It has been a dynamic week in the week. Some prompter tonnage slowed during the first part of the Pacific basin thanks to a good level of ended up offering slightly below week and then recovered towards market activity that successfully $50/mt mark on the Santos- the end. supported hire rates together with Qingdao route, but generally Quick Baltic RV were concluded in FFA's rally. speaking the average offer for was the mid/high teens basis delivery In particular Australia and Indonesia closer to $53/mt. Continent and a 75,000 dwt was had been the leading areas. In timecharter terms the latest fixed for a trip via Kamsar to Kamsarmax open CJK were reported fixtures showed some Panamaxes Continent at a tick below for Australia RV around $26,000/d fixing in the $21,500/21,750/d $20,000/d. for Indian redely and $29,000/d for region basis dely Singapore for trip China redely. Fronthaul remained healthy with a via ECSAm to Far East and the 81,000 dwt open Immingham at the In Indonesia, a lme 11 years old was tonnage list for May dates was reported at $27,000/d for an beginning of May fixed at short leading to believe that May is Indonesia RV basis dely S China. $32,000/d for a trip via USG to F going to be another strong month. East with grains. The mood in the northern side was On TransAtlantic there were sluggish with little enquiries, NOPAC In Black Sea the grain activity finally RV was assessed in the low/mid rumours of a 81,000 dwt fixed in increased after several weeks of $20,000/d basis dely N Asia and the low $30,000s/d basis dely aps coal deal concluded in the area depending on vessels’ spec. and some Panamax owners were with a 82,000 dwt fixed at an asking in the low/mid $20,000/d A flat week for the South American equivalent of low $30,000/d basis basis dely dop Jorf Lasfar for trips market. On Friday the fixtures and Port Said and rumours of much via NCSAm or ECSAm to Skaw/Gib. indications were exactly at the higher levels asked on the same same levels registered the previous A flat week also in N Atlantic which trip. BPI 82 TC & KAMSARMAX 1-YR TC (USD/DAY) PANAMAX Unit 30-Apr 23-Apr W-o-W Y-o-Y 30,000 25,000 BPI 82 TC Average usd/day 24,045 23,667 +1.6% +275.6% 20,000 P1_82 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 19,725 21,200 -7.0% +415.7% 15,000 10,000 P2_82 Skaw-Gib Trip F.
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