2009 Environmental Volatility in the

Himalayan Cold Deserts

Rapid-Onset Disasters in the Himalayan Cold Deserts

Author: Natural Resources Management and Research & Advocacy Teams, Pragya The cold deserts Himalayas have always been prone to frequent rapid- onset disasters such as snowstorms, avalanches, landslides and glacial 200 lake outburst floods. With climatic volatility on the rise, the inhabitants have to face recurrent hazards, which cause tremendous damage to life and infrastructure. The region however, does not receive adequate research and policy attention. This report summarizes the findings of a study to assess

the vulnerability of the region to rapid-onset disasters and to identify the contributing factors. It also deals with the environmental, economic and social consequences of such events and the existing and potential mitigation measures for a range of stakeholders.

Recent years have seen an unprecedented recognizes that frequent disasters lead to erosion of development gains and restricted increase in natural disasters and their options for the disaster victims. horrifying effects around the world (2001 Gujarat earthquake, 2005 Hurricane Katrina, 2004 Asian tsunami etc). Rapid- Disasters can be categorized based on the onset disasters come unannounced and nature of their onset. While some disasters cause extensive impact on human life and may occur within seconds (earthquakes), property (an average of six flood events minutes (tornadoes) or hours (flash floods), occurred in , which affected a reported others may take months or years to manifest 40,000 people). Due to their nature of themselves (droughts). The former category onset, mitigation measures are mostly comprises rapid-onset disasters and is limited to relief and recovery, which are characterized by the sudden and acute reactive in approach. However, nowadays, intensity of the impacts during a short disaster management is making a paradigm period. The severity of rapid-onset disasters shift from reactive approaches like relief and is usually quantified by the loss in terms of recovery, to more proactive approaches like human lives and property for a particular prevention and reduction of disaster events, disaster event. Owing to its nature of onset, and preparedness. rapid-onset disasters do not give people adequate time to mitigate the risk of an

event occurring. Unlike in the case of slow- The UN defines disaster as, “A serious onset disasters, a flood or landslide event disruption of the functioning of society, can occur suddenly, giving people little or causing widespread human, material or no time to evacuate and mitigate the environmental losses, which exceed the impacts. ability of affected society to cope using its own resources.” The National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), India

Supported by: The fragility of the Himalayan region and its 1. A study to assess the vulnerability to geo-tectonic characteristics as well as its disasters of 57 watersheds in Lahaul & extreme sensitivity to climate change have Spiti, Kinnaur and Chamba districts, rendered it highly vulnerable to rapid-onset and 25 watersheds in disasters of hydrologic, meteorologic and Leh and Kargil districts, Jammu & geologic nature. The remoteness and Kashmir. The study was essentially an inaccessibility of the region make effective attempt to understand the changing and timely response a challenge, and the pattern of exposure to environmental incomplete understanding of its threats in the cold deserts and how the environmental dynamics makes perception to this threat has undergone preparedness and alert/early warning a change over the years. Ground measures difficult as well. Till recent years, surveys involved Participatory Rural information on the occurrence of natural Appraisals (PRAs) blended with disasters in the region was rarely known to scientific field observations for a those outside, and even today information detailed analytical study. of events of extremely severe magnitude 2. A study to document the occurrence alone reaches the world beyond the ranges. and impacts of major natural disasters and understand people’s perception of Pragya, an NGO working in the Himalayan threats due to impending disasters in region, has been working to draw attention the cold deserts region of India – the to the environmental vulnerability and the Western Himalayan districts of Leh escalating occurrence of natural hazards in (Jammu & Kashmir), Lahaul & Spiti the cold deserts of the Himalayas. During and Kinnaur (Himachal Pradesh). This the period, 2006-2009, the organization has involved collection and perusal of all carried out an initiative in the region to map available data and reports on the region, and document its vulnerability to as well as the eliciting community environmental threats. The initiative reports of disaster events in the area. involved the following: The key findings of the above-mentioned initiative have contributed to this paper.

VULNERABILITY OF COLD DESERTS TO RAPID-ONSET DISASTERS

Vulnerability of the cold desert region to between altitude and climate change as well environmental threats is increasing and the as disaster risk was explored. incidences of rapid-onset disasters of hydrologic/meteorological and mass Environmental Threat levels were found to movement nature have been on the rise be the highest at the very High Altitude belt with concomitant impacts on populations (>3700 m) in cold deserts. Similar threat that inhabit the region. levels were observed in the Threshold Altitude belt for Himalayan cold deserts Climate Change and Disaster Risk (2000-3000 m) with 50% of the watersheds facing moderate degrees of threat and The Pragya studies validated the relation another 50% facing high to very high degree between climate change and increase in of threat. Impact of climate change were disaster occurrence in the Himalayan cold found to be higher in the Highest Altitude desert region. Change in climate is found to belt (3700 m) where even small shifts in have a concomitant change in the frequency climatic parameters wreak havoc on the of floods, droughts, avalanches and inhabitant communities; impacts are also landslides (having a significant positive high in the Medium Altitude belt (3000- correlation) and similarly a threat to the 3300 m), where high anthropogenic livelihood and property of the people living pressure threatens the equilibrium of the in the region. Further, the relationship socio-ecological system.

Table 1. Disaster occurrence and threat perception in 82 watersheds in J&K and H.P.

Threat perception*

District* Decrease in threat Decrease in threat to Increase in threat to to life property livelihood

Leh (25) 56% high 56% moderate, 28% 44% moderate, 28% significant high

Lahaul (18) 72% moderate, 77.8% moderate 77.8% moderate 33% high Spiti (16) 69% very high 75% very high 69% very low Kinnaur (13) 61.5% very high 84.6% high 69% very low Chamba (10) 80% moderate 80% moderate 70% moderate

* The figures represent the number of watersheds surveyed ** The figures represent the percentage of watersheds surveyed

Extent of climate change, measured through to life and property. For e.g. in the district change in amount and incidences of snow of Lahaul, out of 18 villages surveyed, 72 and rainfall, number of winter days, change percent believed that there has been a in temperature, scarcity of water resources, moderate reduction in the threat to life retreat of glaciers, show higher levels of while 77.8 percent believed it to be climate change impacts in the high altitude moderate in case of threat to property. band, gradually diminishing towards lower Similarly, in Kinnaur, 61.5 percent of the altitudes; disaster risk also follows a similar villages surveyed believed the life to be safer pattern. However, there are regional than before and 84.6 percent believed the variations in the datasets. For example, in decrease in the threat to property to be high. Lahaul and Spiti, disaster risk is higher in This seems evident, as over the years the the High and Medium Altitude ranges due rescue and relief operations have shown to avalanches, landslides and occurence of tremendous improvisation, incorporating droughts, but in the neighbouring district of more technology-oriented approach. In Kinnaur, disaster risks are higher in the addition, various insurance schemes lower altitudes due to incidences of introduced by the authorities have cloudbursts, flashfloods and Glacial Lakes significantly brought down the threat to Outburst Floods (GLOFs). property in the hazard prone areas.

Along with the information regarding the It is interesting to note that while the people frequency and trend of disaster occurrence, believe their lives to be safer due to better the study also tried to bring out the communication, rescue measures and perception of threat of the Himalayan improved health facilities etc, majority of communities. The PRAs and key- the villages surveyed were of the view that stakeholder interviews revealed the their livelihoods are exposed to a greater changing pattern of their perception of threat than before. This can be attributed to threat to life, livelihood and property. The the change in climate and impacts of the above table (Table 1) also brings to light the concomitant disasters on livelihoods, and fact that in all these areas, there has been an the frequent need for post-disaster overall decrease in the perception of threat reconstruction; it is also related to the fact that as the population in this region has increased, people have had no option but to greater threat to their livelihoods. As fig. 1 move towards the otherwise perilous shows, the perceived threat to livelihoods regions in search of livelihood. In addition, has increased over the year in Himachal the changing climatic conditions has Pradesh at altitudes above 3300 m, although rendered this area ever more vulnerable to threat levels are lower in the 2000-3000 m the environmental threats. Communities in altitude. isolated villages of higher altitudes perceived

Similar trends are seen in the cold desert a very high perception of threat to their region of Jammu & Kashmir. However, livelihood due to increasing levels of the unlike Himachal Pradesh, where there were same. Over the year the level of instances of people perceiving lesser threats uncertainties have increased, often due to improved market linkage, insurance described as four times the vulnerability, and subsidy packages, government schemes compared to the situation 20 years back. etc, respondents belonging to Leh revealed

OCCURRENCES & IMPACTS OF HYDROLOGIC AND METEOROLOGIC DISASTERS IN COLD DESERTS

Every year disasters related to homeless and disrupting livelihoods. These meteorological, hydrological and climate incidents are not new to the people in the hazards cause significant loss of life and set Himalayas, who have been braving the back the developmental clock in such unbending terrain since time immemorial. regions by years. The major types of Presently however, in the wake of the hydrological and meteorological hazards changing climatic conditions, the hazards in that plague the cold desert regions are the Himalayas have assumed a greater discussed as follows. dimension. Various studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate A. Floods and Flashfloods Change (IPCC) have suggested that as the impacts of global warming become more Flash floods are defined as short duration pronounced, there will be an overall increase in the precipitation pattern in the floods with relatively high discharge3. They are extremely destructive, transporting huge region4. This, together with the fact that the amount of debris in the form of snow and Himalayan people are not well equipped to rocks at a very high velocity. Every year they face such kind of disasters, exacerbates the occur in this region causing massive situation further. destruction, rendering many communities

Table 2. Flash flood incidents in the Himalayan region some columns of the table have gone missing Date/ Location Reason River Direct Dead Displaced Damages Period cost (mill US $)

1 Aug Kinnaur, Dam break Sutlej 625 41 611,000 20 bridges, 2000 Mandi, from Rampur natural water and Districts of dams sewerage HP, India scheme, 8 powerhouses, 722 houses, 12000 ha crops cattle lost, US $ 17 million worth of public utilities, 590 head of cattle. 26 Jun Kinnaur, Dam Sutlej 200 - 4650 200 km 2005 Shimla, breaks roads, 10 Kulu, from bridges, 10 Mandi natural hanging Districts of dams bridges, 1 HP, India powerhouse, 22 houses

7 Jul Kinnaur, Cloudburst Beas, 140 8,73,900 47800 ha 2005 Shimla, Sutlej and affected crops, 2024 Kulu, their (This houses 3049 Mandi, tributaries includes head of cattle Chamba, incident lost, 8962 ha Bilaspur, No. 2) land lost, Sirmour, 59,873 ha Kangra agriculture Districts of land covered HP, India by debris from landslides and siltation

29 Kinnaur Cloudburst Sutlej - - 32 2 km of road, Sept district of and dam bridge, 1988 HP, India break from orchard and natural 15 houses dam

31 Jul Lahaul & Dm break Maling - - - Road section, 1991 Spiti district from Nalla/ bridge and of HP, natural Spiti farm lands India dams

1950- China - - - 152,000 - - 1990

1950- Nepal - - - 400 - Loss of 1990 infrastructure worth US$ 205 million 2005 Afghanistan - - - 362 100,000 -

The flash floods in the Himalayan region 5. Ice Dammed Lake Outburst Flood occur due to many reasons and are of many (IDLOF) types5. The Western disturbances from the 1. Intense Rainfall Flood (IRF) Mediterranean cause a lot of precipitation in 2. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) the form of snow, in the winter season. A 3. Landslide Dam Outburst Flood consequent abnormal warming in the spring (LDOF) season, (a repercussion of climate change) 4. Rapid Snow/Ice Melt Flood (RSMF) leading to rapid snow melting can cause flash floods. Flash floods events can be unequivocally devastating for the triggered by many factors like heavy downstream riparian. Since predicting the downpour due to cloud burst, failure of onset of any of these events is very difficult, natural or man-made dams, sudden release therefore the prediction of flash floods of water from glacial lakes (in which case it becomes all the more difficult. The gravity is called as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods). of the situation can be adjudged by the Whatever be the reason, the outcome is figures shown in Table 2 above.

B. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods or downstream. GLOFs are not a new GLOFs phenomenon, but there is evidence that the frequency of such events has increased over Glacial Lake Outburst Floods take place the past three decades. Moreover, satellite when naturally dammed lakes in a glacier or studies have shown a considerable decrease the margins of a glacier drain out. “Glacier in the snow cover of many of glaciers floods represent, in general, the highest and indicating the disaster that looms large. most far-reaching glacial risks with the India has about 2554 glaciers and 156 glacial lakes out of which 16 have been declared highest potential of disaster and damage7.” Studies suggest that the warming in the dangerous10. With increasing temperatures, Himalayas has been much greater than the the number and severity of GLOF incidents can only be expected to rise11. It is global average of 0.74o C over the last 100 years. This enhanced warming has unfortunate, however, that they have not accelerated the ablation of the permafrost received adequate attention from policy with many glaciers retreating at a rate as makers leading to high vulnerability and very low preparedness level among the high as 20m per year9! When glaciers move, they deposit rocks and sediment in the form people affected which make the impact of of ridges and along their course. These any glacial lake outburst event even higher. deposits are called moraines and can be of various types depending on their position – GLOFs can affect areas up to hundreds of terminal (at the end or snout of a glacier), kilometer downstream and the discharge median (running along the centre of a can be as high as 15,000 m3 per second! glacier) or lateral (depositions along the GLOF events have known to cause sides of a glacier). extensive damage to the life, property, forests, farms and infrastructure of the

mountain areas. In one such instance, the In the Himalayan region, accelerated glacial nearly complete Namche Hydropower Plant melt has caused the formation of glacial (estimated cost of $ 1.5 million) was washed lakes behind open moraine ends. An away in Nepal in 1985. About twelve such increase in the level of these glacial lakes incidents have occurred in the Tibetan due to higher rates of melting can exert an region since 1935 and almost every country excessive hydrostatic pressure on moraine of the Himalayan region has faced a glacial dam walls, which puts them under constant lake outburst event. In India, GLOFs have threat of breaching suddenly due to some known to occur in regions of Ladakh and in trigger events like earthquakes, avalanches, some areas of Himachal Pradesh like landslides etc. This can cause a rapid gush Kinnaur, and Shimla. In 2005, the Parechu of water and debris to flow downward, outburst flood in the Sutlej valley caused a which can be very dangerous considering considerable damage to the downstream that it is a sudden phenomenon, and has the riparian region. potential to inflict huge damage

C. Snowstorms dense. Even a few inches of dry snow can form drifts many feet high under windy A snowstorm is when a large amount of conditions. Sub-zero temperatures, arctic snow falls from the sky as precipitation. conditions, and strong winds in Snowstorms happen when a mass of very mountainous regions pose additional cold air moves away from the polar regions. threats. A blizzard is the worst kind of When it collides with a mass of warm air, snowstorm, in which strong winds blow the warm air rises quickly and the cold air snow into snowdrifts (huge piles) that can cuts underneath it. This causes a huge bury people and possessions. Properly cloudbank to form, leading to heavy defined, it is a tempestuous, frigid snowfall. Snow will only fall from the cloud snowstorm with blustery, piercing winds of if the temperature of the air between the 15m/s or more and a wind-chill factor as bottom of the cloud and the ground is low as -30º C. Blizzards carry the risk of below 4º C. hypothermia, frostbite, suffocation, and being stranded. Transportation is difficult Large snowstorms could be quite dangerous and dangerous during blizzards because air – a 15 cm snowstorm will make some temperatures can be -12º C or lower, with unplowed roads impassible, while a 30 cm visibility less than 150m. When there is so snowstorm will cave the roofs of some much snow that people and animals cannot homes and cause loss of power. Standing tell the earth from the sky, it is known as a dead trees can also be brought down by the whiteout. In this disoriented state, humans weight of snow, especially if it is wet or very and livestock can lose their way and freeze to death. Severe snowstorms in the winter be as high as 7-8 days with an intensity of 9- of 1997-98 for instance affected more than 12 cms/hr. This causes a lot of damage to a quarter million mobile pastorals in the the pastoral communities, who are not able Tibetan Plateau region and led to the death to graze their livestock if the snow cover of more than 3 million heads of livestock lasts long. It has an adverse effect on their with hundreds of families losing their cattle. livelihood. In October 2008, four people went missing in an unusual early snowstorm in the higher 2. Social impacts: reaches of Chamba hills in Himachal a. Community assets like hospitals, schools, Pradesh. In another unfortunate case, six panchayat ghars (community halls) are washed people died in Tibet snowstorm on October away or may get severely damaged. This not 30th, 2008 in Lhasa. only causes infrastructural damage but also adversely affects the relief operations. D. Impacts Similarly, destruction of schools adversely affects the education of the children. As the effects of climate change and the b. The impact of such disasters is hardest on concomitant glacial melt are beginning to the most vulnerable groups of society show in the Himalayan region, the threats comprising the women, differently abled associated with natural hazards have and children. increased manifold. In the face of c. A continuous threat can cause rural to augmented threats, communities that were urban migration that in turn has serious earlier resilient are now finding it social, economic and cultural implications, increasingly difficult to survive and adapt to both for the urban as well as the rural areas. the rapidly changing climate. While the men migrate to the urban areas in search of better livelihood options, it is left 1. Economic impacts: to the womenfolk to look after the family a. In case of GLOFs and flash floods, the and run the household. As most of the massive flow of debris along with water urban agglomerations are devoid of basic causes extensive damage to life and property amenities including water and sanitation, downstream. Most often, the downstream this can become a huge social menace for riparian are caught completely off guard the country as a whole. thus elevating the damage. d. The day-to-day activities of the people in b. Livelihoods are adversely affected as these areas are affected. For e.g. although a agricultural and horticultural fields are snowstorm has a localized effect it still washed away. Damage to the livestock also causes huge disruption in the daily activities adds to the misery of the people. Trade of the Himalayan people. suffers due to closing down of the market routes. 3. Environmental impacts: These kinds c. The public infrastructure such as roads, of events also inflict huge damage on the railways, bridges, and communication environment and the biodiversity of the system are damaged during such events, area. For e.g. while an event like a flash which not only adversely affects the flood or GLOF can turn fertile land to livelihoods but also delay rescue operations. barren land, events like snowstorms can Other economic assets like hydropower destroy trees and forests. Also, it seems projects also suffer since they need to be quite evident that a continuous exposure to closed down for some time, leading to loss such threats can have adverse effects on the of revenue. For e.g. floods carry huge rocks biodiversity of the region, which is already and boulders along causing serious damage losing its ability to adapt under the wake to the power project infrastructure. rapidly changing climatic conditions. d. Sometimes the spell of a snowstorm can

MASS MOVEMENT

Mass movement describes a quantity of particularly due to the seismic factor. debris/land/snow or ice that slide down a Landslides can be caused by poor ground mountainside under the force of gravity. It conditions, geomorphic phenomena, and often gathers material that is underneath the natural physical forces and quite often due snow pack like soil, rock etc. Such to heavy spells of rainfall coupled with movement is generally along a well-defined impeded drainage. Factors triggering surface confined to a limited portion of the landslide are heavy rainfall, increased pore slope. Some of the hazards related to this pressure in the slope forming mass, phenomenon are as follows: increased weight of slope forming mass, removal of vegetation cover, weak rock and A. Landslides soil of the slope forming mass, steep slope, removal of support at the toe and ground Landslides are defined as the mass vibration during earthquake. movement of rock, debris or earth down a slope and include a broad range of motions Going by the geological clock, the whereby falling, sliding and flowing under Himalayas is a "young" mountain range, and the influence of gravity dislodges earth is prone to natural disasters. Experts also material. They often take place in say that they are one of the most erosion- conjunction with earthquakes, floods and prone ranges. Rainstorms and earthquakes volcanoes. Landslides are a part of the make these mountains prone to frequent Himalaya environment because the slopes landslides and intense rainfall is the primary are weak and are made up of friable rocks. factor that triggers landslides. Prolonged If the slopes were thickly forested, a major downpours often reactivate old landslides. landslide would occur once in 20-30 years. Large-scale deforestation (which loosens the With deforestation becoming the order of soil) and faulty farming practices (extensive the day, minor landslides are occurring with terrace farming) have also led to soil increasing frequency14. erosion, according to local people. The increase in human activities along the slopes The two regions in India most vulnerable to has changed the existing land use pattern. landslides are the Himalayas and the The crop pattern has also changed with Western Ghats. The Himalayan mountain villagers growing less soil-binding crops belt consists of tectonically unstable such as rice instead of millets, the latter younger geological formations subjected to being more suited to this area. Local crops severe seismic activity. Compared to the like millets and maize have taken a backseat Western Ghats, slides in the Himalayas are while commercial and water intensive crops huge and massive and in most cases the like paddy are grown, making the hills overburden along with the underlying unstable. lithology is displaced during sliding,

Table 3. Types of landslides

S. Types of landslides Description No.

1. Falls Abrupt movement of materials that become detached form steep slopes or cliffs, moving by free- fall, bouncing and rolling.

2. Flows General term including many types of mass movement, such as creep, debris flow, debris avalanche, lahar and mudflow. 3. Creeps Slow, steady down slope movement of soil or rock, often indicated by curved tree trunks, bent fences or retaining walls, tilted poles or fences.

4. Debris flow Rapid mass movement in which loose soils, rocks, and organic matter combine with entrained air and water to form slurry that then flows down slope, usually associated with steep gullies.

5. Debris avalanche A variety of very rapid to extremely rapid debris flow.

6. Lahar Mudflow or debris flow that originates on the slope of a volcano, usually triggered by heavy rainfall eroding volcanic deposits, sudden melting of snow and ice due to heat from volcanic vents, or the breakout of water from glaciers, crater lakes, or lakes dammed by volcanic eruptions.

7. Mudflow Rapidly flowing mass of wet material that contains at least 50 percent sand, silt, and clay-sized particles.

8. Lateral spreads These often occur on very gentle slopes and result in nearly horizontal movement of earth materials. Lateral spreads are caused by liquefaction, where saturated sediments (sands and silts) are transformed from a solid into a liquefied state, usually triggered by an earthquake.

9. Slides Many types of mass movement are included in the general term ‘landslide’. The two major types of landslides are rotational slides and translational landslides.

Modified from Varnes 1978 cited in Landslides (www.saarc_sdmc.nic.in)

B. Avalanches it is here that thousands of avalanches occur involving the movement of thousands of A snow avalanche is a rapid flow of snow tons of ice and vertical displacement of over down a slope typically occurring in 1500m. In the high mountain peaks of the mountainous terrain. It takes place in areas world like Everest, Lhotse, and Nuptse, where there is a rapid accumulation of a avalanches occur frequently and they huge mass of snow. The snow may begin to provide a spectacle for the visitors. But slide downhill at a very fast pace due to the these avalanches do not really affect human increase in stress. This increase in stress can lives. It is the avalanches that occur near be due to many reasons – wind drifting, human settlements that are feared most, heavy snowfall in a short span of time, especially in the barren cold desert regions. blasting, seismic activity or even thunder. In terms of frequency of occurrence, mass, Snow cover on a slope tends to slide down energy and magnitude, snow avalanches the slope because of gravity. Conditions account for a considerable proportion of affecting stability include the gravitational the earth’s contemporary mass movement force component of snow, and resisting activity. The upper tracts of the cold deserts forces, such as the frictional resistance of remain under a perpetual cover of snow and the slope or the anchoring effect of shrubs. In general, avalanches are caused when this weather conditions and the weights of the balance is lost and when the forces exceed snow cover, Avalanches occur when these the resistance. Avalanches are rarely factors are combined. The types and scale observed closely since they normally occur of avalanches can differ depending on the during a short time period of one or two combination of these various factors and minutes16. Major causes of avalanches can their scale. Major prime factors and exciting be classified into fixed (prime factors) and factors are shown in the following table. variable factors (exciting factors), such as

Table 4. Major Causes of Snow Avalanches

Item Description Factor Inclination of slope Shape of slope Topographic factors Location (ridge line or toe of slope) Prime factors Orientation of slope Vegetation cover and height of trees Vegetative factors Vegetation cover and its thickness Depth of snow cover Depth of snowfall Weather factors Wind velocity Atmospheric and snow temperatures Exciting factor Increase in weight of snow cover because of snow dropping from cornices or snow Other factors covers Vibrations such as earthquake or the sound of gunfire

Several cases of avalanches have been fodder. reported in the past. Kalpa, the old headquarters of , Himachal C. Earthquakes Pradesh, was under a constant threat of avalanches in winter and this was one of the Being a young-fold mountain range, the reasons for shifting the headquarters to Himalayas are undergoing continuous Reckong Peo. In 1838, Tunda village in seismological activities. Earthquakes in this Ladakh was completely destroyed by an region are not only a big threat themselves, avalanche, leaving 16 people dead. In recent but also trigger some other devastating memory, avalanches wrecked havoc in the events like landslides, avalanches and Pin Valley of Spiti, India, in 1978. In 1998, sometimes cause glacial lakes to burst heavy snowfall in Ladakh, North India, in resulting in GLOFs. While seismic activities October, trapped herders and livestock, caused by the tectonic movements of plates many of whom subsequently died of cold have long been a subject of research, it has and starvation. A desperate relief operation often brought tremendous miseries to the was mounted to provide shelter and animal people of the Himalayas. Unlike most other 1. Environmental: environmental hazards, earthquakes are not a. Mass movement events of all kinds have regional in occurrence with almost the the impact of bringing down large quantities whole Himalayan chain being affected by of sediments, which can affect habitats lying them. Although the damage caused by lower. Frequently, they cause devastating earthquakes in the cold desert region has floods by blocking block the narrow gorges been relatively low (owing to less and forming landslide dams. habitation), this region has seen some severe b. These events tend to change landform quakes in the past five decades. and river/stream bed conditions, as snow/mud slides tend to scour the 1. Kinnaur Earthquake (1975): An earthquake mountainside, particularly when being of magnitude 7.8 on the Richter scale accompanied by rock fragments. Large occurred in the regions of Kinnaur, Lahaul amounts of debris are carried by avalanches, and Spiti. It not only resulted in the loss to which are left in freshly scoured gullies life and property but also triggered off 2 when the snow melts, to be washed away to massive landsides, one in Malling in the rivers and stream by the snowmelt waters. Spiti valley and the other one blocking the This also affects water availability, quantity Parechu river near Sudmo. This disrupted and quality. communication and transport channels for c. Biodiversity is adversely affected as well. several days. Trees wherever they grow may be broken at 2. Dharchula Earthquake (1980) affected parts about breast height due to the excessive of inner dry valleys of Pithoragarh district. force of the on-rushing snow. Young It was measured at 8 on the Richter scale. saplings are the most prone to damage by 3. Uttarkashi Earthquake (1991) caused avalanche as they offer the least resistance massive loss of life and property in the to the mass of on-rushing snow19. regions of Uttarkashi, Kinnaur and Chamoli d. Earthquakes can be a big environmental districts. The magnitude of this earthquake hazard as they can set off a series of was 7.9 on the Richter scale.According to catastrophic events such as landslides and National Institute of Disaster Management avalanches which, in turn, are a big (NIDM), India, the Himalayan and sub- environmental menace. Himalayan region are one of the most vulnerable regions to earthquakes. From 2. Economic & Social 1897 to 1993, the Western Himalayan a. The negative economic effects of mass region has witnessed 25 earthquakes of a movement and geologic disaster events magnitude 5.0-5.9, seven of 6.0-6.9 and one include the cost to repair structures, loss of measuring more than 8 on the Richter scale property value, disruption of transportation with a return period of 2.5 to 3 years. routes, medical costs in the event of injury, and indirect costs such as lost timber and D. Impacts of Landslide, Avalanches lost fish stocks. Huge sums have to be spent & Earthquakes on debris removal. Geotechnical studies and engineering projects to assess and stabilize

potentially dangerous sites are also very In hilly terrains of India, these events strike costly. life and property almost perennially. These b. The sudden nature of landslides can disasters, year after year, bring untold misery cause lot of damage to the unprepared to human settlements apart from causing people. It leads to tremendous loss of life devastating damages to transportation and and bring a lot of misery to the people in communication network. They negatively these regions. Also, it adversely affects the impact the environment of the hilly regions livelihoods for days together as it takes a lot and also have harsh socio- economic of time to remove the debris form the consequences. The effects on vegetation inundated land. and wildlife are mostly negative; in some c. In case of an earthquake the people suffer cases, they are catastrophic. Various immense trauma, both physical and mental, environmental, social and economic impacts as they live in constant fear of aftershocks. of such events are listed as follows:

MITIGATION MEASURES

When disaster events occur in the cold network has been set up in the hazard prone desert regions of the Himalayas, relief and areas. This helps in generating early recovery operators can be hampered due to warnings, and communicating in times of factors like remoteness, the lack of adequate emergency. The Indian Army has set up a communication facilities and poor wireless station at Kalpa and the Indo- connectivity. Harsh climatic conditions and Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) has one in poor infrastructure can compound Reckong Peo, both situated in Kinnaur problems in the event of a disaster. Thus, it district of Himachal Pradesh. is necessary that capacity building be done 2. Advanced water level monitoring system: The at the level of community and district ITBP has a visual monitoring of water level officials so that emergency operations are at various outposts. In addition, advanced not delayed, exacerbating the impacts of an monitoring stations have also been set up to event. Community preparedness and assess any increase in the water levels of the training coupled with assistance from the Parechu, Sutlej and Spiti rivers. The Snow district level officials can significantly and Hydrology Division of the Central contribute in mitigating disaster impacts in a Water Commission established a telemetry localized manner. Early warning systems relay station at Sumdo, and a similar station have a limited role to play in such situations was set up at Khaab and Dubling villages to and being in a constant state of serve prior warning for the protection of the preparedness is an appropriate mitigation Naptha-Jhakri Hydropower Project22. measure for communities’ areas vulnerable 3. Community led initiatives: Although few in to risk. In a rapid-onset disaster, the number, some community led initiatives are emergency phase (relief or isolation phase)21 also making a significant contribution in is of utmost impost importance because developing awareness and disaster relief and assistance during this phase preparedness. Some community determines the magnitude of the impact on representatives along with certain NGOs local communities. are working to integrate experience and local knowledge to apply in disaster A. Measures for Floods, GLOFs and management. These include activities like Snowstorms building bridges, planning alternative routes, Many international agencies such as the disseminating early warnings etc. However, International Centre for Integrated due to the challenges posed by the terrain, Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and communities are still largely dependent on United Nations Development Programme the administration. (UNDP) have taken initiative and started 4. Administrative measures: These have been projects related to awareness, mitigation largely in the form of providing measures and capacity building for such infrastructural support by building dams, disasters. Other organizations such as embankments, contour trenches and check Office for Foreign Disaster Assistance walls, repairing roads. The concerted efforts (OFDA) of United States Assistance for of the administration were exemplified in International Development (USAID), the the 2005 floods when helicopters were World Meteorological Organization provided for rescue operations and (WMO), United Nations Environmental thereafter various helipads have been Programme (UNEP) and United constructed in the area. It has also played a Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural vital role in rehabilitation measures. For e.g. Organization (UNESCO) have also been Leo village at Pooh Block, Kinnaur was instrumental in providing funds and provided alternative housing facilities post necessary platforms for capacity building. the 2005 floods. In addition, to ensure a year round access to the markets, the travel

and transport of the agricultural products Mitigation measures being implemented at has been subsidized on the roads and present include: bridges damaged by such events. Similarly, 1. Network for wireless connectivity: Such a the districts of Lahaul & Spiti have properly functional District Disaster Management Seema Bal (SSB), ITBP, Border Roads Agencies with a 24X7 phone in facility for Organization (BRO) etc generally help in re- adequate grievance redressal. establishing the communication channels, 5. Military and paramilitary force: Usually roads and temporary bridges, medical involved in rescue operations, the army and services etc. the paramilitary forces like the Sashastra

Overview of some projects on GLOFs • The Regional GLOF Risk Reduction Project: Supported by European Commission Humanitarian Organization (ECHO) and UNDP’s Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR). The project aims to “build the capacity and the knowledge of the communities living in the various flood basins and to strengthen the administrative structure to effectively reduce the impacts of flash floods and GLOFs”. The specific areas covered are India, Bhutan, Pakistan and Nepal.

• UNEP-ICIMOD Partnership to study GLOFs in Nepal and Bhutan: The project has prepared an inventory of Nepal and Bhutan’s glaciers and glacial lakes and highlighted those where GLOF events are likely occur and cause serious damage to life and property. It suggests that 20 Nepalese and 24 Bhutanese glacial lakes were potentially dangerous. The project is also providing advice on methods of recognizing potential dangers and immediate threats, and on developing early warning systems, to the Governments of the two countries. It is helping to strengthen the capability of their national institutions to address the GLOFs issue.

More importantly, these organizations have realized that in order to achieve a long-term solution, the structural measures (like dams and reservoirs, embankments, natural detention basins, channel and drainage improvement) need to be suitably integrated with the non-structural ones (flood-fighting, relief and restoration efforts). The socio-economic aspects of such kind of disasters tend to be higher due to the lack of preparedness of the people. Since, in such a scenario a mere technological intervention would not suffice, therefore these organizations aim at creating awareness, capacity building and strengthening the non-structural and community-based approaches. Source: www.managingclimaterisk.org

Gaps & Potential Measures

Due to their peculiar nature and just chance events. For e.g. flash floods are confinement to the Himalayan terrain, these still not recognized as a distinct calamity hazards have not yet received adequate rather considered just a form of riverine attention of the policy makers. There has floods. This approach has limited the been a lack of concerted mitigation development of necessary technology strategies thus leading to crisis management required to cope up with such events. A when the disaster actually strikes. The paradigm shift in the policy framework is agencies have also failed to recognize the required. For e.g. framing a separate policy fact that the areas susceptible to these for the flash floods rather than treating hazards are usually prone to other threats them as riverine floods. Taking a cue from such as landslides, avalanches and China’s flood management policy, which cloudbursts that are closely related to each has a lot of instruments relating to flash other. This requires demarcation of such flood management, India could work areas as multi hazard risk prone regions towards developing one of its own. and devising of strategies accordingly, rather b. Poor resource base and poor access to than following the current approach of communication channels hinder community crisis management for isolated events. Some participation in developmental activities and significant challenges requiring immediate subsequent capacity building. In order to attention are: carry out rescue and relief effort effectively and efficiently, transportation and 1. For the State: communication infrastructure needs to be a. One of the biggest challenges over the strengthened. Appropriate mechanisms years has been the failure to recognize these need to be devised to ensure information events as proper natural hazards rather than dissemination to the community, which could include organizing awareness by means of effective dialogues between the campaigns and providing first response countries of the Hindu Kush Himalaya trainings. (HKH) region has been lacking despite the c. A thrust should be laid on developing the transboundary nature of such events. ability to rapidly evacuate hazardous area. Floods are the main natural disaster Evacuation planning needs to take account aggravating poverty in the Himalayas. of the low infrastructural base of the region Technical advances in flood forecasting and as well as the fact that roads, bridges and management offer an opportunity for railways are among the first causality in such regional cooperation in disaster incidents. For events such as earthquakes, it management. Regional cooperation in is very important to train local communities transboundary disaster risk management by means of drills etc, in the correct way to should become a political agenda. protect themselves in case of any such h. Disaster preparedness and risk reduction event. Considering the fact that most of the should be seen as an integral part of water earthquake related deaths are due to the resource management. Integrated water inability to timely evacuate the area, such resource management (IWRM) should measures become imperative. include further climate change scenarios and d. Store houses for food grains and fodder be scaled up from watersheds to river in each block would ensure food security basins. IWRM is a political process and and relief at times of disasters. At present, in researchers should engage constructively some regions of the Sutlej valley, people with the relevant stakeholders in the public store food grains and fodder with their sector, private sector, and civil society. relatives or friends in relatively drier places. Water allocation for ecosystems and A centralized system for the same would be livelihoods deserves particular attention. more accessible and therefore highly Water storage, based on local practices beneficial for the people. A build-up is should be developed in the region to deal necessary for emergency relief measures with the problem of too much water during (alternate arrangement of food and water monsoons and too little during the dry supply, para-medical team, temporary season. shelter, alternate communication link). e. Infrastructure development programmes 2. Crosscutting challenges: continue in such areas without accounting a. Information gap between the policy for the possible hazards. For e.g. in spite of makers, research institutions and realizing the risks in a particular area, the communities, and lack of coordination in administration continues construction mitigation efforts between all stakeholders. activities giving people the wrong The nature of the Himalayan ecosystem is impression that such areas are indeed safe. such that any disaster management policy It is necessary to incorporate a calculated cannot be framed and implemented without risk of such events while planning any major adequate engagement of the people. infrastructural project. b. Indigenous and traditional knowledge f. Political lethargy in implementation of must be integrated into mainstream mitigation efforts could have grievous costs. developmental activities. At the same time, In 1975, the Ministry of Water Resources notwithstanding the aspect of community and Central Water Commission circulated a involvement, it is also imperative to draft bill for flood plain zoning regulations incorporate the appropriate technological for state governments to enforce. However, component and strike a fine balance the Government of Himachal Pradesh has between the two. clearly refused to enact the bill and c. Clear demarcation of duties in the policy Rajasthan and Manipur are the only two structure with transparency and accounting states in India that have passed the bill systems. A clearly specified role of the (steps for enforcement are still pending)24. It NGOs, Panchayats and state level authorities. is necessary to devise policies to discourage habitation of the hazard prone area, and the 3. For researchers and civil society: resettlement and relocation of affected d. In case of flood events, there is a lack of populations to less hazard prone areas. a general understanding about the physical g. In addition, country-to-country learning dimensions and properties of GLOFs as well as their life cycle, which makes j. Information and technology does not predicting a GLOF event almost as difficult percolate from the laboratories to the local as predicting an earthquake. stakeholders, thus diluting the coping e. There is a lack of proper early warning capacity of affected people. It is necessary systems and mathematical models for to generate awareness amongst the predictions of such events. Although R&D communities about the exact causes and activities have been carried out, most of consequences of such events. These could these models are either still in test phase or include radio and television broadcasts, are not suitable enough to be used in their adult education and erecting permanent present form. Research has to focus on signboards indicating danger. development of integrated models to k. A change in the community mindset is predict flood onset, determining flood required from the current dependence on routes, performing vulnerability analysis and the government as the agency that holds risk classification to identify hazard prone sole responsibility for relief work in the areas, mitigation and response measures, wake of disaster events. This poses a big and evacuation routes. challenge as any effective disaster f. There is also a serious lack of trained management plan require a full-scale professionals and institutional capacity for community participation. hazard mapping, vulnerability assessment, l. A multi-stakeholder disaster reduction and disaster forecasting. strategy must be developed by increasing g. Although introduced as a supplementary community awareness. Resource mapping course in schools, disaster management by including the local communities can training as a system is still poorly developed make policies more region specific and in the educational system. In universities, appropriate. this component is completely lacking. Training of schoolteachers and health workers is also crucial to create a trained B. Measures for Landslides and workforce, which can be mobilized in the Avalanches and Earthquakes event of a disaster. The Government of India has several h. Since many NGOs and other self help initiatives and programmes to address mass groups also lend a hand in the aftermath of movement and geo-tectonic disasters in the disasters, it is crucial to coordinate with country: them in case of such disasters. Local organizations with community volunteers 1. An important initiative with regard to should be developed in the form of landslide mitigation in India has been the emergency response team. inception of the ‘National Core Group for Landslide Mitigation’ constituted by the 4. For local communities: Ministry of Home Affairs in 2004 for i. The communities lack the preparedness to drawing up a strategy and action plan for cope with such disasters, tending to see mitigating the impact of landslides, provide disaster events as a natural phenomenon advise and guidance to State Governments over which they have no control. Proper on various aspects of landslide mitigation, training regarding pre-event (mitigation and monitor the activities relating to landslide preparedness) and post-event (relief and mitigation including landslide hazard recovery) is necessary for communities to zonation and to evolve early warning understand that the effects of any disaster systems and protocols for landslide risk can be minimized by proper measures. Since reduction. Geological Survey of India (GSI) they are the first ones to respond to the has been declared the nodal agency disasters, an appropriate capacity building responsible for coordinating/undertaking can reduce the damage caused. Capacity geological studies, landslides hazard building should include inputs on rescue zonation, monitoring landslides/ and search, evacuation and other related avalanches, studying the factors responsible issues such as first aid, information and and suggesting precautionary and preventive communication, as well as gender measures. sensitivity.

2. Settlement policy, which discourages growth of the inaccessible snowbound hill permanent settlements in high-risk zones regions. SASE was initially assigned the task and diversion of stream channels in upper of studying snow and avalanche problems slopes, especially above settlements. The along certain mountain highways in policy also demands that adequate snowbound belt of Indian Himalayas. provisions must be made to ensure drainage of storm water away from high sloping 4. The government of India has issued terrain. Contour bunding or terracing Guidelines for Earthquake Management to adopted for seasonal cultivation or initiation minimize the impacts, loss of lives and of plantations in slopes of >16° above damage to property. settlements are required to have sufficient provision for drainage. These measures 5. The Ministry of Earth Sciences, (MoES), discourage the increase in drivers of is coordinating with the India landslides and avalanches. Meteorological Department (IMD), the Geological Survey of India (GSI), the 3. Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) and the (SASE) was set up in 1969 near Manali to Earthquake Risk Evaluation Center (EREC) combat the hazards of snow and avalanches for the development of scientific Seismic not only to help the Armed Forces to fight Zonation Maps. and live in the mountains but also to accelerate the pace of socio-economic

The most important triggering mechanism for mass movements is heavy precipitation which infiltrates and increases pore pressure, causing an overburden. When this happens in steep slopes, the safety factor of the slope material gets considerably reduced causing it to move down. The natural way of preventing this situation is by reducing infiltration and allowing excess water to move down without hindrance. As such, the first and foremost mitigation measure is drainage correction. This involves maintenance of natural drainage channels both micro and macro in vulnerable slopes. The universal use of contour bounding for all types of terrain without consideration of the slope, overburden thickness and texture or drainage set-up needs to be controlled especially in the plateau edge regions. Leaving aside the 'critical zones' with settlements could be avoided altogether and which could be preferably used for permanent vegetation, the 'highly unstable zones' generally lie in the upper regions, which are occupied by highly degraded vegetation. These areas warrant immediate afforestation measures with suitable plant species. The afforestation programme should be properly planned so the little slope modification is done in the process. Bounding of any sort using boulders etc. has to be avoided. The selection of suitable plant species should be such that can withstand the existing stress conditions in this terrain.

Seabuckthorn, a widely distributed shrub in the cold deserts of Ladakh brings many environmental benefits, including soil and water conservation, desertification control and land reclamation in fragile cold desert ecosystem. Seabuckthorn plantations being resistant to the drying effects and physical injuries caused by the wind can serve as windbreaks to prevent wind erosion in open areas. The unique characteristics of seabuckthorn in improving the fragile ecosystem and socio- economic upliftment of the rural cold desert region are receiving attention from environmentalists and the Government. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research has recommended a concept note on seabuckthorn under the National Agricultural Innovation Project scheme24. Of late this shrub has caught enough research attention and its potential in disaster management in the cold deserts can be explored. Good practice: The IMJA Disaster Risk Reduction Project, Nepal is a fine example of disaster risk reduction. With financial assistance from the World Bank, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal signed a contract with MeteorComm and its partner British Columbia Hydro International Ltd. (BCHIL) to get a GLOF Early Warning System established downstream of the Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake in Nepal. The sensing system is capable of generating a warning and transmitting it downstream. Similarly, the Intermediate Technology Group, Nepal, has introduced a community based disaster management system. It comprises of a community managed, flood early warning system along the Rapti River in Chitwan district. Although in a test phase, the technology can be replicated elsewhere if found effective for timely flood warning generation. Such kind of innovations can go a long way and set necessary precedents for appropriate disaster risk reduction strategies that can, in turn, save thousands of lives.

Gaps & Potential Measures

In the past the focus has been on post- b. Credible, up-to-date scientific knowledge disaster response only, which is no longer is essential for the development of climate adequate and effective in dealing with policy. It is essential to develop high science disasters, therefore a shift is occurring in the with government agencies and academia for region, as well as worldwide, from response application of standardized methodologies to prevention, preparedness and mitigation for year-round observation. of disasters. Collecting and developing more c. Along with scientific and technical data and technology alone, will also not be criteria, participatory methods, or civic sufficient to improve peoples’ lives. Policy science, need to be developed to assess and makers and practitioners need to better monitor climate and environmental changes understand local contexts and needs for based on local perceptions, practices, and improved disaster risk reduction activities. use. This would enable local communities to play key roles in determining adaptation 1. For policy makers and researchers: practices to reinforce resilience based on a. The relationship between climate change local information and knowledge. A school and the Himalayan cryosphere, although science programme can be developed in confirmed by scientists generally, is not local communities in the Himalayan understood sufficiently to derive detailed mountain region. policy responses. While in-depth studies of d. Preparation of seismotectonic/seismic glaciers, snow pack, and permafrost have zonation maps which can prove useful in been carried out in some areas, they have the zoning of the hazardous areas and been scattered widely in space and time. No planning effective mitigation strategies. detailed investigations of snow and ice e. Local climate change is influenced greatly processes or their relevance to climate have by features of the Himalayas that are not taken place in most areas of the Himalayan well represented in global models because and other high ranges. Baseline studies are of their coarse resolution. Regional Climate lacking for most areas, particularly for those Models (RCMs), with a higher resolution higher than 4,000m, and there has been little than global ones, need to be constructed for long-term monitoring of climatic variables, different ‘hotspots’ and run for shorter perennial snow and ice, runoff, and periods (20 years or so). The inter hydrology in the extraordinary heterogeneity connectivity of Himalayan environmental of mountain topography28. Before effective change, the Asian monsoon, and local and responses can be made, much work has to global climate warming need careful study. be carried out to identify and predict the The results of RCMs have to be downscaled possible impacts of climate change filtered and applied to impact assessments, in through such diverse contexts. The particular for watersheds or sub-catchments. immense diversity within the region should f. Integrated research programmes in the be recognized: diversity of climates and Himalayan region have to consider the topo-climates, hydrology and ecology, and, interlinkages between the six spheres above all, in human cultures and activities. (lithosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere, and anthrosphere). their concerns and needs29. g. Mountain specificities and vulnerability to b. The best approach to vulnerability and environmental change are also important. uncertainty in regard to climate change is The vulnerability of humans and ecosystems ‘bottom-up’ community- led adaptation to the impacts of climate change should be built on local knowledge, innovation, and identified through integrated research and practices. The focus should be on partnerships. empowering communities to monitor and take action to adapt to a changing climate 2. For community: based on their own decision-making a. The main challenge is the lack of relevant processes and participatory technology knowledge in the region concerning key development with support from outside. policy areas and strategies to improve the c. Priority should be given to the most adaptive capacities of communities at risk. vulnerable groups such as women, the poor, The complex regional differentiation and people living in fragile habitats such as magnifies the significance of two major along riversides and on steep slopes. problems: the widespread absence of basic d. National adaptation plans of action scientific investigations into cryogenic (NAPAs) are currently being prepared by processes and limited knowledge of the regional countries under the initiative of the human cultures and ongoing developments UN Framework Convention on Climate in them. This leads to the theme of Change. They are expected to identify ‘uncertainty on a Himalayan scale’, referring sectors most vulnerable to climate change more to problems of limited knowledge and to prioritize activities for adaptation than inherent physical and social measures in those sectors. NAPAs need to uncertainties. In particular, there has been pay more attention to certain sectors such as little engagement with local populations so water, agriculture, health, disaster reduction, far to learn from their knowledge and and forestry, as well as the most vulnerable experience in adapting to unique and groups such as children, women, and other changeable environments and to address disadvantaged groups.