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Denver Market Report – Office Q1 2021

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Denver Market Report – Office Q1 2021 OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q1 2021 Denver, CO OUR NETWORK IS YOUR EDGE. PREPARED BY: All information is from sources deemed reliable and is subject to errors,omissions, change of price, rental, prior sale, and withdrawal without notice. Prospect should Brandon Langiewicz carefully verify each item of information contained herein. Partner Hoff & Leigh | 3141 S Broadway, Suite A | Denver, CO 80113 | 720.572.5187 office www.hoffleigh.com/denver DenverDenver Office Office OFFICE MARKET REPORT Market Key Statistics 1 Leasing 3 Rent 8 Construction 11 Under Construction Properties 13 Sales 15 Sales Past 12 Months 17 Economy 19 Market Submarkets 24 Supply & Demand Trends 28 Rent & Vacancy 30 Sale Trends 32 4/5/2021 Copyrighted report licensed to Hoff & Leigh Colorado Springs, LLC - 1031464 OVERVIEWOverview DenverDenver Office Office 12 Mo Deliveries in SF 12 Mo Net Absorption in SF Vacancy Rate 12 Mo Rent Growth 1.3 M (5 M) 13.6% -1.7% The Denver office market entered the pandemic on solid currently available, an all-time high in Denver. footing. The market has benefitted from the in-migration Sublease availabilities are mainly concentrated in and relocation of companies to the area, particularly from Downtown, where oil and gas tenants occupy roughly technology companies fleeing expensive office space in 15% of office space. Prior to the pandemic, merger and the coastal markets. Job and population growth have acquisition activity in the oil industry meant that large been robust in the past decade, driving strong absorption blocks of space were already being placed on the gains, rent growth, and development activity in the office market, but energy tenants began listing their space in market. earnest last year with the additional challenges brought on by the pandemic. But Denver's story of growth has not insulated it from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to Softer demand and a wave of speculative construction weigh on the office market as tenants hold off on making delivering in the coming quarters have vacancies rising in long-term decisions amid the uncertain environment. the forecast, which will continue to shift leverage back to Additionally, oil prices hit all-time lows in April of last tenants in the near term. year from decreased demand for fuel worldwide, and several energy firms in Denver were forced to file for The immediate aftermath of COVID-19 shutdowns made bankruptcy or conduct layoffs. it more challenging for investors and lenders to underwrite deals. After a dismal second quarter, Deal volume fell significantly in the spring of 2020 as investment activity did pick up in the second half of 2020, office tenants turned their attention to accommodate a with large institutional investors returning to the market. remote workforce. This wait-and-see approach The uptick in investment activity in the second half of the persisted through the remainder of the year, and leasing year helped to drive up total annual leasing volume. activity in the last three quarters of 2020 declined by Denver turned in a respectable year, with annual sales roughly 50% as a result. The market only recorded 5.6 activity totaling nearly $2.4 billion in 2020. Although this million SF of leasing activity last year, which is similar to is down from 2018 and 2019, it far exceeds what was what was recorded during the height of the Great recorded during the Great Recession. Recession. Denver's office market is in a period of heightened Vacancies were already creeping up before the volatility, but there are reasons to be optimistic about its pandemic, but the shock to the local economy only made long-term health. Denver has enjoyed some big wins matters worse, as 3.6 million SF of space was vacated in this year with the relocation and expansion of 2020. In addition to direct space hitting the market, companies, and the market continues to diversify with sublet availabilities are also posing a challenge to the emergence of the tech sector's footprint in the local Denver's office market. The year ended with 4.5 million economy. SF of available sublease space. This figure continues to increase into 2021 with 4.7 million SF of sublease space 4/5/2021 Copyrighted report licensed to Hoff & Leigh Colorado Springs, LLC - 1031464 Page 2 OVERVIEWOverview DenverDenver Office Office KEY INDICATORS Net Absorption Under Current Quarter RBA Vacancy Rate Market Rent Availability Rate Deliveries SF SF Construction 4 & 5 Star 75,247,181 16.6% $34.01 23.9% (346,288) 0 2,336,602 3 Star 71,661,527 13.0% $26.13 16.4% (49,644) 0 105,415 1 & 2 Star 32,104,082 7.8% $21.95 11.4% (13,076) 0 0 Market 179,012,790 13.6% $28.76 18.7% (409,008) 0 2,442,017 Historical Forecast Annual Trends 12 Month Peak When Trough When Average Average Vacancy Change (YOY) 3.4% 12.1% 13.6% 16.0% 2003 Q3 7.0% 2000 Q2 Net Absorption SF (5 M) 1,305,259 542,855 5,190,056 2000 Q4 (4,670,458) 2021 Q1 Deliveries SF 1.3 M 2,221,522 1,175,377 7,434,539 2001 Q1 500,954 2012 Q1 Rent Growth -1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 12.1% 2007 Q1 -10.2% 2009 Q4 Sales Volume $1.5 B $1.8B N/A $4.2B 2007 Q3 $340.8M 2009 Q4 4/5/2021 Copyrighted report licensed to Hoff & Leigh Colorado Springs, LLC - 1031464 Page 3 LEASINGLeasing DenverDenver Office Office Based on historical data since 2000, Denver's office slowdown, has put Denver's energy firms in a precarious market has never had four consecutive quarters of position. Several companies announced significant negative absorption. But that streak was broken last year layoffs in recent quarters due to what were already as the market experienced major tenant move-outs. 3.6 perceived as weaker oil prices. Whiting Petroleum, which million SF was vacated in 2020, causing vacancy to rise signed a lease for 135,000 SF at the Wells Fargo Center by 320 basis points from the previous year to 13.6%. in the CBD in 2018 and took occupancy in 2019, laid off Only 14 leases over 50,000 SF were signed in 2020, and 254 employees this past summer. In February 2020, half of these were renewals. Aerospace, technology, and Extraction Oil and Gas announced it would eliminate health services companies were most active in the 20% of employee positions in the state, including jobs at market last year. its downtown headquarters. A slew of layoff announcements followed in March and April of last year. A total of 4.7 million SF of sublease space is available, representing a record for the Denver market. Companies In the past, space vacated by energy tenants was largely that don't have upcoming lease expirations are looking backfilled by tech companies, but with work-from-home for options to offload space, either due to financial initiatives in place for the foreseeable future, these new distress, consolidation, or a permanent work-from-home leases did not materialize to offset the space losses. policy. The significant rise in sublease space is expected to slow the office market's recovery and hinder near- Suburban submarkets will continue to play a role in term rent growth. The effects will largely be felt in Denver's robust absorption trends. As downtown Downtown Denver, where the vast amount of space is submarkets have grown increasingly unaffordable and listed. The pace of sublease space coming to market has congested for employees, or no longer fit the lifestyle of not slowed, and sublease levels are expected to rise older millennials with families, companies have found through 2021. plenty of talent in peripheral areas of the metro. WeWork is all in on Downtown Denver. Dating back to Lockheed Martin is in the process of hiring 750 additional 2018, the embattled co-working provider inked deals for employees in the metro, and the aerospace defense firm more than 500,000 SF at eight new locations. But after a signed 3 leases totaling 458,000 SF in Denver's failed IPO and the removal of its CEO, many are left southeast suburban area to accommodate the new questioning whether WeWork can honor its lease growth. Colorado's aerospace industry as a whole has commitments. The company recently announced plans to been thriving, and Ball Aerospace and Raytheon close 4 of its locations in Denver. Combined, this space Technologies also added hundreds of jobs to the Denver totals 240,000 SF which will likely hit the sublease metro last year. market in the coming months. Healthpeak Properties made headlines last year when The commercial real estate industry has speculated for the real estate investment trust announced plans to years about how the co-working model would perform relocate its headquarters to Denver and create 166 jobs during a downturn. WeWork and other co-working in the metro. This was great news for the local economy, spaces have become areas of weakness in the office but the real excitement came when Healthpeak market. But the good news for Denver is that these announced that those jobs would have an average companies only occupy about 1% of total office space annual wage of $425,000, which is roughly 6.5 times and are primed for a relatively quick rebound once the higher than Colorado's average annual wage. After pandemic is under control, especially if tech tenants evaluating office space across Denver, Healthpeak decide to jump on vacated creative office spaces. decided on the Denver Tech Center and leased a full floor at 50 Fifty DTC.
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