2. Growth Diagnostics
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Document of The World Bank Report No.: 55404 PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT REVIEW WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REPORTS ON GROWTH DIAGNOSTICS IN FOUR AFRICAN COUNTRIES: GHANA, MAURITIUS, NIGERIA, AND UGANDA June 30, 2010 Country Evaluation and Regional Relations (IEGCR) Independent Evaluation Group (World Bank) Abbreviations and Acronyms AAA Analytic and advisory activities ACS Activity completion summary AFT Aid for Trade CAE Country assistance evaluation CAS Country assistance strategy CD Country director CEM Country economic memorandum CGE Computable general equilibrium CM Country manager EMP Employment and growth study EPZ Export processing zone ESW Economic and sector work EU European Union FDI Foreign direct investment GDP Gross domestic product HRV Hausmann/Rodrik/Velasco IC International competitiveness ICA Investment climate assessment ICR Implementation completion report ICT Information and communication technology IEG Independent Evaluation Group IEGWB Independent Evaluation Group (World Bank) IMF International Monetary Fund MFN Most favored nation NEEDS Nigeria economic empowerment and development strategy NGO Non-governmental organization NIS National innovation system NTE Non-traditional export PAR Performance assessment review PER Public expenditure review PETS Public expenditure and tracking surveys PPAR Project performance assessment report PREM Poverty Reduction and Economic Management QAG Quality Assurance Group RMSM-X Revised minimum standard model SM Sector manager SME Small and medium-sized enterprises SOG Sources of growth TA Technical assistance TFP Total factor productivity TTL Task team leader Director-General, Independent Evaluation : Mr. Vinod Thomas Director, Independent Evaluation Group (World Bank) : Ms. Cheryl W. Gray Manager, Country Evaluations and Regional Relations (IEGCR) : Mr. Ali Khadr Task Manager : Mr. Ismail Arslan i Contents Ratings .............................................................................................................................. iii Preface .................................................................................................................................v Summary .......................................................................................................................... vii 1. Objectives and Approach ..............................................................................................1 2. Growth Diagnostics ........................................................................................................7 Diagnosing Growth ..................................................................................................7 Framing of the Questions, Analytical Tools, and Presentation of Findings ..........10 Ghana ............................................................................................................... 10 Nigeria ............................................................................................................. 11 Uganda ............................................................................................................. 13 Mauritius .......................................................................................................... 14 3. Results ...........................................................................................................................17 4. Strategic Relevance and Ownership ...........................................................................21 5. Quality of the Document .............................................................................................25 6. Dialogue and Dissemination ........................................................................................27 7. Some Process Issues .....................................................................................................31 8. Overall Assessment ......................................................................................................35 9. Possible Approaches Going Forward .........................................................................37 Boxes Box 1. Growth Diagnostics ............................................................................................ 8 Box 2. A Shift in Uganda’s Strategy ........................................................................... 18 Box 3. Analyzing the Impact of Trade Policy Reform in Mauritius ........................... 19 Box 4. The Chapter on Political Economy in the Ghana CEM ................................... 26 Box 5. The Dissemination of the Nigeria CEM........................................................... 29 Box 6. Should the Bank use ESW for Capacity Building? .......................................... 35 ii Tables Table 1: The Country Report Studied .............................................................................. 2 Table 2. Ratings Criteria .................................................................................................. 4 Table 3: Ratings in the Results Category ....................................................................... 18 Table 4: Ratings in the Relevance Category .................................................................. 22 Table 5: Ratings in the Quality Category ....................................................................... 25 Table 6: Ratings in the Dialogue and Dissemination Category ......................................... 28 Table 7: Original Budgets and Final Costs of the Reports ............................................. 32 Table 8: Time for Completion of the Reports ................................................................ 33 Table 9: Overall Ratings ................................................................................................ 36 Annexes Annex 1: Ghana – Meeting the Challenge of Accelerated and Shared Growth ........... 45 Annex 2: Ghana International Competitiveness – Opportunities and Challenges facing Non-traditional Exports ..................................................................... 53 Annex 3: Mauritius – Managing Change in a Changing World ................................... 58 Annex 4: Mauritius – From Preferences to Global Competitiveness ........................... 64 Annex 5: Nigeria – Employment and Growth Study.................................................... 71 Annex 6: Nigeria – Competitiveness and Growth ........................................................ 78 Annex 7: Uganda – Fiscal Policy for Growth – Public Expenditure Review .............. 85 Annex 8: Uganda – Moving Beyond Recovery: Investment and Behavior Change for Growth ....................................................................................... 93 Annex Table 1: Ghana – Selected Growth-Related Variables and Indicators ............ 99 Annex Table 2: Mauritius – Selected Growth-Related Variables and Indicators ..... 100 Annex Table 3: Nigeria – Selected Growth-Related Variables and Indicators ........ 101 Annex Table 4: Uganda – Selected Growth-Related Variables and Indicators ........ 102 iii Ratings Dialogue and Report/Topic Results Relevance Quality Overall Dissemination Moderately Ghana 2001 Moderately Moderately Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory IC Unsatisfactory Satisfactory Unsatisfactory (3.75) Ghana 2007 Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory CEM (5.00) Highly Mauritius 2006 Highly Highly Highly Highly Satisfactory AFT Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory (6.00) Mauritius 2007 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory CEM Satisfactory (4.75) Moderately Nigeria 2007 Moderately Moderately Satisfactory Unsatisfactory Satisfactory CEM Unsatisfactory Satisfactory (3.50) Nigeria 2009 Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory EMP (5.00) Highly Uganda 2007 Highly Highly Highly Satisfactory Satisfactory PER Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory (5.75) Highly Uganda 2007 Highly Highly Highly Satisfactory Satisfactory CEM Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory (5.75) v Preface This is a Performance Assessment Review (PAR) of World Bank economic reports on growth diagnostics in four African countries (Ghana, Mauritius, Nigeria, and Uganda). The eight reports covered by the evaluation include one country economic memorandum and one more specialized report for each of the countries. All of the reports delved extensively into broad or more specific growth policy issues. The Bank completed six of the reports during 2006-07, one in 2001 and one in 2009. The evaluation was based on several sources of information. First, the team reviewed each of the reports to establish their substantive content in terms of growth diagnostics and growth policy recommendations. Second, the team reviewed the documentary record to probe into process issues, including inception, client and stakeholder engagement, quality control, and dissemination. Third, the team interviewed country directors and task managers that were familiar with the reports under review as well as the Africa Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) network responsible for the reports. And fourth, the team visited each country for a period of three days during which it interviewed government officials and other stakeholders in the public and private sectors as well as staff in the resident offices in November 2009 and February 2010. Based on these sources of information, the team prepared a specific assessment of each report that covered results, relevance, technical quality, and dissemination using a uniform template that was developed