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THE HISTORY of FINANCIAL CRISES Critical Concepts In THE HISTORY OF FINANCIAL CRISES Critical Concepts in Finance Edited by D'Maris Coffman and Larry Neal Volume I The early modern paradigmatic cases ij Routledge Taylor & Francis Croup LONDON AND NEW YORK CONTENTS VOLUME I THE EARLY MODERN PARADIGMATIC CASES Editor acknowledgements xiii Acknowledgements xv Chronological table of reprinted articles and chapters xvii Introduction 1 1 The economic crisis of 1619 to 1623 7 CHARLES P. KINDLEBERGER 2 The monetary movements of 1600-1621 in Holland and Germany 33 W. A. SHAW 3 The 'Kipper und Wipper' period and its effects on upper Austria 52 HEIDELINDE JUNG 4 The bank of Amsterdam and the leap to central bank money 62 STEPHEN QUINN AND WILLIAM ROBERDS 5 The Dutch monetary environment during Tulipmania 68 DOUG FRENCH 6 Extracts from Famous First Bubbles 80 P M. GARBER V CONTENTS 7 The Tulip Mania in Holland in the years 1636 and 1637 119 N. W. POSTHUMUS 8 The Tulipmania: fact or artifact? 150 EARL A. THOMPSON 9 The Integration and efficiency of the London and Amsterdam stock markets in the eighteenth Century 169 LARRY NEAL 10 Extracts from Famous First Bubbles 188 P. M. GARBER 11 Trading options before Black-Scholes: a study of the market in late seventeenth-century London 196 ANNE L. MURPHY 12 The myths of the South Sea Bubble 223 JULIAN HOPPIT 13 Financial markets can go mad: evidence of irrational behaviour during the South Sea Bubble 246 RICHARD S. DALE, JOHNNIE E. V. JOHNSON AND LEILEI TANG 14 Financial market analysis can go mad (in the search for irrational behaviour during the South Sea Bubble) 285 GARY S. SHEA 15 Pitfalls in the quest for South Sea rationality 310 RICHARD S. DALE, JOHNNIE E V. JOHNSON AND LEILEI TANG 16 New evidence on the first financial bubble 317 RIK G. P. FREHEN, WILLIAM N. GOETZMANN AND K. GEERT ROUWENHORST 17 Was John Law's system a bubble? The Mississippi bubble revisited 362 FRANCOIS R VELDE 18 The crisis of public finance and the Law affair, 1712-26 382 PHILIP T HOFFMAN, GILLES POSTEL-VINAY AND JEAN-LAURENT ROSENTHAL vi CONTENTS 19 Abuses of the system 406 E. LEVASSEUR VOLUME II THE GROWTH OF FINANCIAL CAPITALISM Acknowledgements vii Introduction 1 20 Efficiency of the Dojima rice futures market in Tokugawa-period Japan 6 SHIGERU WAKITA 21 'Veritable goid mines before the arrival of railway competition': but did dividends signal rates of return in the English canal industry? 25 A. J ARNOLD AND S. McCARTNEY 22 The first bank of the United States and the securities market crash of 1792 52 DAVID J. COWEN 23 The financial crises of 1825 and the restructuring of the British financial system 73 LARRY NEAL 24 Promotion, speculation and their outcome: the 'steamship mania'of 1824-1825 107 DAVID M. WILLIAMS AND JOHN ARMSTRONG 25 Political economy, interest groups, legal institutions and the repeal of the Bubble Act in 1825 127 RON HARRIS 26 Jacksonian monetary policy, specie flows, and the Panic of 1837 150 PETER L. ROUSSEAU 27 The Railway Mania of 1845-1847: market irrationality or collusive swindle based on accounting distortions? 182 S. McCARTNEY AND A. J. ARNOLD Vll CONTENTS 28 Myopie rationality in a mania 216 GARETH CAMPBELL 29 The Panic of 1857: origins, Transmission, and Containment 249 CHARLES W. CALOMIRIS AND LARRY SCHWEIKART 30 Market contagion: evidence from the panics of 1854 and 1857 275 MORGAN KELLY AND CORMAC Ö GRÄDA 31 Western grains and the Panic of 1857 295 JAMES L. HUSTON 32 Extracts from Lombard Street 313 W.BAGEHOT 33 Business and financial conditions following the Civil War in the United States 371 WARREN M. PERSONS, PIERSON M. TUTTLE AND EDWIN FRICKEY 34 The Crisis of 1873: perspectives from multiple asset classes 402 SCOTT MIXON VOLUME III THE GOLD STANDARD ERA A cknowledgements ix Introduction 1 35 The Baring Crisis in a Mexican mirror 5 BARRY EICHENGREEN 36 The Baring Crisis and the Brazilian Encilhamento, 1889-1891: an early example of contagion among emerging capital markets 30 GAIL D. TRINER AND KIRSTEN WANDSCHNEIDER 37 The Barings Crises of 1890 and 1995: causes, courses, consequences and the danger of domino effects 57 JAN KÖRNERT viii CONTENTS 38 The 'Wizard of Oz' as a monetary allegory 80 HUGH ROCKOFF 39 Free banking gone awry: the Australian banking crisis of 1893 101 CHARLES R. HICKSON AND JOHN D. TURNER 40 Causes of bank suspensions in the Panic of 1893 122 MARK CARLSON 41 Bank fragility, 'money under the mattress', and long-run growth: US evidence from the 'perfect' Panic of 1893 147 CARLOS D. RAMIREZ 42 The American Crisis of 1907 178 O. M. W. SPRAGUE 43 Real shock, monetary aftershock: the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the panic of 1907 193 KERRY A. ODELL AND MARC D. WEIDENMIER 44 Bank panics and the endogeneity of central banking 216 GARY GORTON AND LIXIN HUANG 45 The Bank Panic of 1907: the role of the trust com panies 236 JON MOEN AND ELLIS W. TALLMAN 46 Liquidity creation without a central bank: Clearing house loan certificates in the banking panic of 1907 255 ELLIS W. TALLMAN AND JON R. MOEN 47 Not just the Great Contraction: Friedman and Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to i960 285 MICHAEL D. BORDO AND HUGH ROCKOFF 48 Nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in the propagation of the Great Depression 293 BEN S. BERNANKE ix CONTENTS 49 The macroeconomics of the Great Depression: a comparative approach 320 BEN S. BERNANKE 50 The gold Standard, deflation, and financial crisis in the Great Depression: an international comparison 350 BEN BERNANKE AND HAROLD JAMES 51 Financial factors in the Great Depression 385 CHARLES W. CALOMIRIS 52 The 1929 stock market: Irving Fisher was right 411 ELLEN R. McGRATTAN AND EDWARD C. PRESCOTT 53 Was there a bubble in the 1929 stock market? 431 PETER RAPPOPORT AND EUGENE N. WHITE 54 The role of liquidity and implicit guarantees in the German twin crisis of 1931 456 ISABEL SCHNABEL 55 The stock market boom and crash of 1929 revisited 493 EUGENE N. WHITE 56 The failure of the Bank of United States: a reappraisal 511 JOSEPH L. LUCIA 57 Why do bank runs look like panic? A new explanation 525 YEHNING CHEN AND IFTEKHAR HASAN 58 The 1931 Sterling crisis and the independence of the Bank of England 537 WILLIAM H. JANEWAY X CONTENTS VOLUME IV THE MODERN ERA Acknowledgements vii Introduction 1 59 Assessing damages: the 1983 Israeli bank shares crisis 5 ASHER A. BLASS AND RICHARD S. GROSSMAN 60 Latin American debt: I don't think we are in Kansas anymore 19 CARLOS F. DIAZ-ALEJANDRO 61 Real interest rates and the savings and loan crisis: the moral hazard premium 78 JOHN B. SHOVEN, SCOTT B. SMART AND JOEL WALDFOGEL 62 Banking on a bailout: directors' and oflicers' liability Insurance policy exclusions in the context of the savings and loan crisis 91 M MÄZEN ANBARI 63 Spatial dimensions of the savings and loan crisis 129 BARNEY WARF AND JOSEPH C. COX 64 Portfolio Insurance and the market crash 149 MARK RUBINSTEIN 65 The new speculative stock market: why the weak immunizing effect of the 1987 crash? 164 J. PATRICK RAINES AND CHARLES G. LEATHERS 66 Crisis dynamics of implied default recovery ratios: evidence from Russia and Argentina 180 JOHN J. MERRICK JR. 67 Contagion in international bond markets during the Russian and the LTCM crises 199 MARDI DUNGEY, RENEE FRY, BRENDA GONZALEZ-HERMOSILLO AND VANCE MARTIN XI CONTENTS 68 The double bubble at the turn of the Century: technological roots and structural implications 230 CARLOTA PEREZ 69 The subprime crisis and house price appreciation 262 WILLIAM N. GOETZMANN, LIANG PENG AND JACQUELINE YEN Index 297 xii .
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