DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILISATION and REINTEGRATION in SOUTH SUDAN the LIMITS of CONVENTIONAL PEACE and SECURITY TEMPLATES Jairo Munive DIIS REPORT 2013:07 DIIS REPORT
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DIIS REPORT 2013:07 DIIS REPORT DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILISATION AND REINTEGRATION IN SOUTH SUDAN THE LIMITS OF CONVENTIONAL PEACE AND SECURITY TEMPLATES Jairo Munive DIIS REPORT 2013:07 DIIS REPORT DIIS . DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1 DIIS REPORT 2013:07 © Copenhagen 2013, the author and DIIS Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Strandgade 56, DK-1401 Copenhagen, Denmark Ph: +45 32 69 87 87 Fax: +45 32 69 87 00 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Cover photo: Sudan People’s Liberation Army Day parade. © Jairo Munive Layout: Allan Lind Jørgensen Printed in Denmark by Vesterkopi AS ISBN 978-87-7605-553-0 (print) ISBN 978-87-7605-555-4 (pdf ) Price: DKK 50.00 (VAT included) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge from www.diis.dk Hardcopies can be ordered at www.diis.dk This publication is part of DIIS’s Defence and Security Studies project which is funded by a grant from the Danish Ministry of Defence. Jairo Munive, PhD, Postdoc [email protected] 2 DIIS REPORT 2013:07 Contents Acronyms 4 Abstract 6 Introduction and background 7 South Sudan’s economic and political context 10 Overview of the economy and the burden of military expenditure 10 Sovereign warriors, violence and politics 2005–2012 12 CPA– DDR: 2005–2012 20 Disarming and reintegrating ‘non-essentials’ 20 DDR in praxis: reality bites 21 Case study: reintegration in Eastern Equatoria state 25 Second phase DDR: downsizing the SPLA 30 DDR: the ‘missing link’ in security sector reform efforts 35 Conclusion 38 References 40 Defence and Security Studies at DIIS 43 3 DIIS REPORT 2013:07 Acronyms BCSSAS Bureau for Community Security and Small Arms Control CAAFF Children Associated with Armed Forces and Groups CBO Community Based Organisations CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement DAC Development Assistance Committee DDR Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration DFID Department for International Development EES Eastern Equatoria State GIZ German International Cooperation Services GOS Government of Sudan GoSS Government of South Sudan ICRS Information, Counselling and Referral Services IGP Inspector General of Police IOM International Organisation for Migration IP Implementing Partner LRA Lord’s Resistance Army MoDVA Ministry of Defence and Veteran Affairs NDDRC National Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration Council NDDRP National DDR Programme NGO Non Governmental Organisation NSDDRC North Sudan DDDR Commission OAG Other Armed Groups OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development SAF Sudan Armed Forces SAS Small Arms Survey SPLM/A Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army SSAF South Sudan Armed Forces SSDDRC South Sudan DDR Commission SSDDT Security Sector Development and Defence Transformation Programme SSDF South Sudan Defence Forces SSDM South Sudan Democratic Movement SSLA South Sudan Liberation Army SSLM South Sudan Liberation Movement SSPS South Sudan Police Service SSR Security Sector Reform 4 DIIS REPORT 2013:07 SSUM/A South Sudan Unity Movement/Army UNDP United Nations Development Program UNMIS United Nations Mission in Sudan UNMISS United Nations Mission to South Sudan USAID United States Agency for International Development WAFF Women associated with armed forces/groups 5 DIIS REPORT 2013:07 Abstract This report explores the DDR programme in South Sudan; in particular how it has evolved, what the major challenges have been to its implementation and, finally, what can realistically be expected from renewed efforts to disarm and reintegrate fighters vis-à-vis security imperatives on the ground. DDR has been identified as a main priority in the Republic of South Sudan and a prerequisite to pave the way for future stability and development. The basic argument presented here is that standard DDR programmes – or rather the conventional peace and security templates that characterise them – are not fit for purpose in a context like South Sudan. This is so because achieving security in the country goes beyond DDR and is not related to the ‘rightsizing’of the South Sudanese Armed Forces/ Sudan People’s Liberation Army nor to the ‘reintegration’ of combatants. Rather, as the report argues, it will depend on a serious engagement with the following twofold task: firstly, to comprehend and eventually change the basic structures and mechanisms of armed mobilisation prevalent in South Sudan and, secondly, to understand and adapt security sector reform to a political environment that is constructed in terms of potential for violence and threats of destabilisation. 6 DIIS REPORT 2013:07 Introduction and background Following decades of civil war Southern Sudan achieved independence from Sudan in mid-2011 as the culmination of a long peace process.1 Both the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) and international donors consider a successful Disarmament Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) programme a prerequisite for successful stabilisation, peace and development in Africa’s newest nation state. With a projected caseload of some 150,000 participants South Sudan’s DDR will be the world’s largest planned DDR programme. It will be a follow-up to the widely criticised first phase of DDR launched after the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) (SAS 2011; STHLM 2010). Negotiations to end the war began already in May 2002 and culminated with the signing of the CPA on 9 January 2005. The CPA consisted of various protocols, agreements, arrangements and modalities including the ‘Permanent Ceasefire and Security Arrangements’, which mandated a sustainable ceasefire and the disengagement of members of the armed forces and the implementation of a DDR programme. According to the 2005 CPA, the main adversaries, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) from the north and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) from the south, should demobilise and reintegrate a considerable percentage of their forces. To this purpose the DDR programme offered financial incentives, vocational and skills training and family assistance to the participants. The DDR programme was an integral part of the CPA and envisaged as an interim security measure facilitating the core challenge of proportional force downsizing, rationalisation and standardisation in the creation/formation of a new ‘unitarian’ national Sudanese Army including both members of the SAF and the SPLA. Furthermore, the CPA granted Southern Sudan greater levels of autonomy and political autonomy within the Republic of Sudan However, the relation between the parties continued to be tense – maybe best described as a no peace–no war environment – and in spite of the importance ascribed to DDR in the CPA the actual implementation faced serious delays, mainly due to a combination of unwillingness by the key actors to begin downsizing their active duty forces and the perils of designing and implementing such a complex exercise. The SPLA was deeply reluctant to reduce its ranks due to a perception that the CPA was merely a ceasefire 1 For purposes of clarification, Southern Sudan is used here as the name of the autonomous territory prior to independence in July 2011. 7 DIIS REPORT 2013:07 rather than a peace agreement. In Southern Sudan this first phase of DDR did not start before 2009 and the pace was slow and the results meagre. By April 2012 only 12,525 combatants had demobilised and even fewer had been supported by sporadic reintegration services. After the acquisition of independence the position of SPLA has changed dramatically and it is seemingly now taking a leading role in planning for a second phase of DDR in the newly independent South Sudan. This report explores the first and the planned second phase of DDR in South Sudan and asks three basic questions: How did the first phase evolve (2005–2012)? What were the major challenges to its implementation? – and finally, what can realistically be expected from the future, second, phase of renewed efforts at disarming and reintegrating fighters vis-à-vis the security imperatives of the SPLA and extremely difficult socio-economic realities on the ground? The basic argument put forward here is that standard DDR programmes, or rather the standard templates that characterise them, are not fit for purpose in a context like South Sudan. This is mainly due to three reasons. Firstly, different perceptions among national power holders, in this case the SPLA, and international actors and donors about what the programme is supposed to achieve amidst continued armed insurrections, inter-communal violence, widespread insecurity and border clashes with Sudan. Secondly, the difficulties in independently verifying and distinguishing combatants from civilians and, thirdly, the politics of patronage and wealth that are central for the survival of the new state and the mobilisation of recruits into the SPLA and other armed groups (both legal and illegal).2 In South Sudanese politics, violence or threats of violence are central to solving political grievances among conflicting parties, and strongmen (ethnic) militias and armed groups are constantly mobilised for political purposes (LeRiche & Arnold 2012; Schomerus & Allen 2010; Young 2012). In spite of the challenges encountered during the first phase of DDR and the meagre results, a second phase DDR for some 150,000 personnel has been planned as a joint exercise between the South Sudan Demobilisation, Disarmament and Reintegration Commission (SSDDRC), the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Originally expected to start in 2012 and run for eight years, it has been postponed several times due 2 This report follows the common practice of using the designation SPLA for both the pre-2005 movement, and that during the CPA phase 2005–2011 as well as in the post-independence period (here interchangeably with South Sudan Armed Forces/SSAF). 8 DIIS REPORT 2013:07 to financial constraints and logistical challenges. The launch of a pilot phase with approximately 500 participants will take place on April 2013 (UNSG 20013).3 The report is based on an extensive desk study of available evaluations, reviews and reports on the CPA–DDR programme 2005–2012.