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CRSI): an Assessment of Resilience to Acute Meteorological Events and Selected Natural Hazards

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CRSI): an Assessment of Resilience to Acute Meteorological Events and Selected Natural Hazards EPA600/R-17/238 October 2017 Development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI): An Assessment of Resilience to Acute Meteorological Events and Selected Natural Hazards 1 EPA600/R-17/238 October 2017 Development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI): An Assessment of Resilience to Acute Meteorological Events and Selected Natural Hazards by J. Kevin Summers, Linda C. Harwell, Kyle D. Buck, Lisa M. Smith Deborah N. Vivian, Justin J.Bousquin, James E. Harvey, Stephen F. Hafner and Michelle D. McLaughlin ORD/NHEERL/GED 1 Sabine Island Drive Gulf Breeze, FL 32561 1 Notice/Disclaimer Statement This document has been reviewed in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency policy and approved for publication. The information in this article has been funded wholly (or in part) by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It has been subjected to review by the National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents reflect the views of the Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. All images and copyrights are the property of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2 Table of Contents Notice/Disclaimer Statement ......................................................................................... 2 Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................... 10 1. Introduction and Background ................................................................................... 20 2. Approach ................................................................................................................. 24 2.1. Overview of Indicator/Indices Development ................................................... 24 2.2. A Review of Existing Resilience Indicators and Indices ................................. 25 2.3. Determination of Climate Event Factors to be Included in CRSI .................... 28 2.4. The CRSI Conceptual Framework ................................................................. 32 2.4.1. Risk Domain ...................................................................................... 35 2.4.2. Governance Domain .......................................................................... 37 2.4.3. Society Domain .................................................................................. 39 2.4.4. Built Environment Domain ................................................................. 43 2.4.5. Natural Environment Domain ............................................................. 46 2.5. Metric Selection and Data Sources ................................................................ 47 2.6. Data Handling and Standardization................................................................ 48 2.7. Calculations ................................................................................................... 50 2.7.1. Built Environment, Governance, Natural Environment and Society Domains ...................................................................................................... 50 2.7.2. Risk Domain ...................................................................................... 51 2.8. The Final Steps to CRSI ................................................................................ 52 2.9. Uncertainty Analysis ....................................................................................... 53 3. How to Use CRSI – Its Utility and Potential Applications ......................................... 56 3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 56 3.2. General Broad Use ........................................................................................ 56 3.3. Use by EPA Regions ...................................................................................... 57 3.4. Use by EPA Program Offices ......................................................................... 58 3.5. Use by States, Counties, Metropolitan Areas and Communities .................... 59 3.6. Examples ....................................................................................................... 60 4. Results and Discussion – National and EPA Regions ............................................. 65 4.1. Organization of Results .................................................................................. 65 3 4.2. General Broad Analyses and Results of Basic Resilience (Governance/Risk) .............................................................................................................................. 65 4.3. Presentation of Results .................................................................................. 71 4.3.1. CRSI and Domain Score Bar Graphs ................................................ 71 4.3.2. Six Panel Maps .................................................................................. 72 4.3.3. Top County CRSI Values ................................................................... 73 4.3.4. Breakdown of the Risk Domain .......................................................... 74 4.3.5. Polar Plots for Nation and EPA Regions ............................................ 75 4.3.6. National Results ................................................................................. 75 4.3.7. Regional Results ................................................................................ 81 7. Future Directions for Community Resilience to Extreme Weather Events ............. 142 8. References ............................................................................................................ 145 9. Appendices ............................................................................................................ 152 4 Figures Figure E-1. Conceptual representation of the Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) Approach .................................................................................................... 12 Figure E-2. Map showing distribution of final CRSI Scores across the U.S. (2000- 2015)…………………………………………………………………………………………….13 Figure E-3. The distribution of CRSI values and domain scores (Risk, Governance, Society, Built Environment, and Natural Environment) ………………………………………14 Figure E-4. Polar plot showing the contribution of the 20 indicators associated with the domain scores for the EPA Region 5. ……………………………………………………………15 Figure 1.1 Conceptual representation of the Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) Approach. ............................................................................................................... 23 Figure 2.1 Number of applied resilience indices found using multi-factor composite index measures. ..................................................................................................... 26 Figure 2.2 Publication elimination summary based on existing climate index development literature (2000-2015) used to inform CRSI research efforts. ............ 27 Figure 2.3 Final CRSI conceptual framework.. .............................................................. 34 Figure 2.4 Representation of the Metric, Indicator and Domain scores for Governance, Society, Built Environment and Natural Environment Domains of CRSI.. ............... 51 Figure 2.5 Representation of the Metric, Indicator and Domain scores for Risk Domain of CRSI. .................................................................................................................. 52 Figure 4.1 Linear assessment of risk versus governance based on domain scores.. ... 66 Figure 4.2 Distribution of number of counties in quartiles for risk and governance domains based on the domain scores. ................................................................... 67 Figure 4.3 Map of the distribution of county scores for basic resilience. ....................... 68 Figure 4.4. Distribution of number of counties in quartiles for risk and governance domains based on number of samples (redistributing the basic resilience scores). 69 Figure 4.5 Map of the re-distribution of counties to demonstrate the likelihood of increased resilience with increased governance..................................................... 70 Figure 4.6 Example summary of CRSI and domain available for the nation and each EPA region. ............................................................................................................ 71 Figure 4.7 Example of six-panel maps showing the distribution of county-level CRSI and domain scores available for the nation and for the EPA Regions. .......................... 72 Figure 4.8 Example Table of highest ranking CRSI values for all U.S. counties and counties within EPA Regions. ................................................................................. 73 Figure 4.9 Example summary of Risk domain presented for the nation and the EPA Regions. ................................................................................................................. 74 Figure 4.10 Example polar plot describing the contributions of the 20 indicators to the domain scores. ....................................................................................................... 75 Figure 4.11 Summary of CRSI (upper right hand value) and domain scores (light colored bars) for the U.S, along with domain median adjusted scores showing influence of each domain on final CRSI score (dark colored bars). ........................ 76 Figure 4.12 The
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