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Département Thématique Politiques Externes LA SITUATION ETUDE Département thématique Politiques externes LA SITUATION POLITIQUE AU CACHEMIRE AFFAIRES ETRANGERES Mars 2005 FR Direction Générale pour les Politiques Externes de l'Union Direction pour des Délégations Interparlementaires et Département Thématique Département Thématique Relations Extérieures TITRE LA SITUATION POLITIQUE AU CACHEMIRE Résumé: La crise du Cachemire, ouverte dès les lendemains de la partition qui fit naître Inde et Pakistan en 1947, reste le point de friction majeur entre les deux pays. En 1989, l'insurrection de jeunes cachemiris contre la présence indienne au Jammu et Cachemire fut aussitôt appuyée par le Pakistan, qui y infiltra bientôt des combattants du jihad, sans pour autant déloger les forces indiennes. Les changements structurels récents (nucléarisation des deux pays en 1998, effets régionaux du 11 septembre et montée en puissance de l'Inde) amenèrent finalement les deux pays à calmer le jeu, après deux périodes de graves tensions, en 1999 et en 2002. Les positions rigides d'autrefois évoluent. Le général Musharraf, et une partie des séparatistes de la Conférence Hurriyat, abandonnent désormais les résolutions de l'ONU qui préconisaient un référendum, sans pour autant accepter la logique du statu quo, que l'Inde accepterait. Les hypothèses de découpages régionaux créant, de part et d'autre de la ligne de contrôle, des entités politiques spécifiques ne seront pas acceptées par New Delhi, récusant toute nouvelle partition du territoire. Mais à défaut, l'ouverture de liaisons entre les deux Cachemires prend corps. Le dialogue "composite" entamé par l'Inde et le Pakistan en 2004 n'est donc pas sans effet, sans qu'on puisse envisager une solution de jure à court terme. En revanche, Indiens, Pakistanais et Cachemiris pourraient, non sans ambiguïtés et non sans soupçons, avancer vers une stabilisation de facto de la région, si l'Inde assouplissait sa gestion du Cachemire, et si le Pakistan confirmait un début de changement de paradigme régional. Dans ce contexte, l'Union européenne peut encourager les dialogues croisés entre Inde et Pakistan et entre Cachemiris, en offrant son expérience de gestion des conflits et de frontières ouvertes, et en proposant de nouvelles coopérations économiques bénéficiant au Cachemire indien comme au Cachemire pakistanais, après le séisme d'octobre 2005. Sur le plan diplomatique, des convergences avec les autres grands acteurs — Etats-Unis au premier chef, Chine et Russie—, pourraient, avec la souplesse requise, conforter les deux adversaires dans la voie de nouvelles flexibilités permettant de sortir le Cachemire d'un long cycle de violences meurtrières, au bénéfice des Cachemiris eux-mêmes, et de toute la région. EXPO/B/AFET/2005/38/01010 March 2005 PE 381.390 FR Cette étude a été demandée par la commission Affaires étrangères du Parlement européen. Cette étude est publiée Dans les langues suivantes : FR Auteur: Jean-Luc RACINE Directeur de recherche au CNRS Centre d'Etudes de l'Inde et de l'Asie du Sud, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Paris Administrateur responsable: M. Xavier NUTTIN Editeur Parlement européen Direction générale pour les Politiques externes de l'Union Département thématique ATR 09K 050 rue Wiertz B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] Manuscrit complété le 10 mars 2006. Cette étude est disponible sur internet http://www.europarl.europa.eu/activities/expert/eStudies.do?language=FR Si vous n'êtes pas en mesure de télécharger l'information que vous désirez, veuillez vous adresser par e-mail au secrétariat pour obtenir une copie: [email protected] Bruxelles: Parlement européen, mars2006. D'éventuelles opinions exprimées sont celles de l'auteur et ne reflètent pas nécessairement la position officielle du Parlement européen. © Communautées Européennes, 2006. La reproduction et la traduction à des fins non commerciales sont autorisées, moyennant la mention de la source et à condition notifier au préalable l'éditeur et d'envoyer au préalable une copie de la publication à l'éditeur. 2 PLAN INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 4 I. LE CONTEXTE HISTORIQUE 1. Un héritage de guerres et de tensions : 1947-1989 ................................. 4 2. L'insurrection de 1989 et ses suites: identités, jihad et sale guerre ........ 5 II. LES POSITIONS DES DEUX CAMPS ........................................................... 6 III. LES CHANGEMENTS STRUCTURELS DEPUIS 1998 ............................... 7 IV. LE DIALOGUE EN COURS. NEGOCIATIONS ET NOUVEAUX DISCOURS 1. Procédures, avancées, ambiguïtés .......................................................... 8 2. Les propositions pakistanaises ............................................................... 9 3. Les positions de la Conférence Hurriyat (APHC) ................................ 11 4. Les inflexions indiennes ....................................................................... 11 5. Le difficile dialogue entre les séparatistes et New Delhi, et entre Cachemiris ................................................................................................ 12 6. Les conséquences du séisme d'octobre 2005 ....................................... 14 V. HYPOTHESES ET SCENARIOS 1. La capacité du Pakistan à changer de paradigme ................................. 14 2. Les possibles concessions indiennes .................................................... 15 3. L'évolution des Cachemiris .................................................................. 15 4. Le contexte international ...................................................................... 15 5. Trois scénarios ...................................................................................... 16 a)-La rechute dans la tension indo-pakistanaise ........................... 16 b)- Une solution de jure ................................................................ 16 c)- Une stabilisation de facto ........................................................ 16 VI. QUEL ROLE POUR L'UNION EUROPEENNE ? ....................................... 16 1. Les grands acteurs internationaux : Etats-Unis et Chine ...................... 17 2. Le Parlement européen et le Cachemire ............................................... 17 3. L'Europe et la résolution des conflits .................................................... 18 4. Nourrir la réflexion, faciliter le dialogue .............................................. 18 5. Dans le domaine économique et social : coopération et prospective ... 18 6. Dans le domaine diplomatique ............................................................. 19 ANNEXES 1. Bibliographie ......................................................................................... 20 2. Population et religions .......................................................................... 21 3. Partis et mouvements politiques............................................................ 22 4. Les avancées du dialogue indo-pakistanais .......................................... 28 5. Cartographie ......................................................................................... 30 3 INTRODUCTION Née dès les lendemains de la sanglante partition de l'Empire des Indes, la question du Cachemire est un sujet si sensible et si complexe qu'il ne peut être abordé par une instance politique, parlementaire ou exécutive, qu'avec les plus grandes précautions. D'un côté, une bataille de principes : le droit à l'autodétermination contre l'intégrité nationale; la dénonciation des violations des droits de l'homme, ou celle du terrorisme; des conceptions opposées de la nation: multiculturelle en Inde, religieuse au Pakistan. De l'autre côté, la réalité plus obscure des convictions et des passions, mais aussi des ambiguïtés, des tactiques et des manipulations. A l'arrière-plan, de grands enjeux : l'Inde émergente, le Pakistan tournant peut-être la page de vingt-cinq ans d'instrumentalisation de l'Islam combattant. A l'horizon, la Chine, les Etats-Unis, la prolifération nucléaire, les ramifications internationales de réseaux terroristes. Le bilan humain est lourd : 40 000 morts au moins, en quinze ans d'insurrection, de répression, d'attentats, d'assassinats, de disparitions. L'aspiration à la paix dans la justice et profonde, mais les Cachemiris sont divisés entre indépendantistes, islamistes ou non, pro-pakistanais, pro- indiens. L'échiquier religieux est complexe : sunnites, chiites, hindous, bouddhistes. La mosaïque linguistique l'est tout autant, dans ce milieu himalayen compartimenté. Au nord de la Ligne de contrôle s'étendent les Territoires du Nord et l'Azad Cachemire, pakistanais. Au sud, la vallée de Srinagar, le cœur de l'insurrection, ainsi que le Jammu et le Ladakh, indiens. Au-delà de l'Himalaya: les terres sous contrôle chinois: la vallée de la Shaksgam et l'Aksai Chin : quasi vides, mais stratégiques, entre Tibet et Sinkiang. Au total, un territoire contesté de 222 000 km2 et près de 15 millions d'habitants (deux tiers de l'Allemagne en superficie, presque les Pays-Bas en population) vivant au point de contact des trois pays nucléarisés d'Asie, dans un héritage de guerres, de tensions, de méfiance et de rancoeurs accumulées. Le dialogue aujourd'hui engagé entre Islamabad et Delhi n'est pas le premier, mais il se déploie dans un nouvel environnement régional et global, auquel n'échappe pas les dynamiques internes du Cachemire lui-même. Les avancées sont lentes, mais prometteuses. Les soupçons planent toutefois, dans chaque camp. Un
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