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POLAND in Particular Retail, Accommodations and Challenges Services, and Further Straining the Healthcare System

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POLAND in Particular Retail, Accommodations and Challenges Services, and Further Straining the Healthcare System wave of the pandemic weakened the recov- Key conditions and ery, forcing a lockdown in multiple sectors, POLAND in particular retail, accommodations and challenges services, and further straining the healthcare system. The risk of delays in the vaccination Table 1 2020 rollout and subsequent pandemic waves The well-diversified Polish economy is could undermine the recovery, with implica- Population, million 38.0 one of Europe’s least affected economies tions for jobs and inclusion. GDP, current US$ billion 594.2 by the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP de- Over the medium term, a key challenge to GDP per capita, current US$ 1 5654.9 clined however by 2.7 percent in 2020, the sustained growth is a tightening labor sup- a Upper middle-income poverty rate ($5.5) 1 .2 first output contraction in over 20 years. ply made more acute by the aging popula- Gini indexa 30.3 Prudent macroeconomic policies, effective tion. Achieving decarbonization commit- School enrollment, primary (% gross)b 96.9 absorption of EU investment funds, a ments is another challenge. Strengthening Life expectancy at birth, yearsb 77.6 sound financial sector, and better access to institutions at both the national and subna- long-term credit fed into inclusive growth tional level are necessary ingredients for Source: WDI, M acro Poverty Outlook, and official data. Notes: and poverty reduction. Real wage growth sustained and inclusive growth and for the (a) M ost recent value (201 8), 201 1 PPPs. and a range of demographically targeted narrowing of regional disparities. (b) M ost recent WDI value (201 8). social programs (“Family 500+”, “13th pension”) fed into robust consumption growth until early 2020. With an improv- The two COVID-19 waves and contain- ing business environment, Poland inte- Recent developments ment measures have pushed the Polish grated well into regional value chains (RVCs). Higher levels of private invest- The economy recorded its first contraction economy into recession; however, Poland ment, an improved innovation ecosystem, since 1991 amid the pandemic, with out- remained among the most resilient econo- and further upgrading of RVCs are need- put contracting 2.7 percent in 2020. The mies in the region. To mitigate the impact ed to boost productivity and growth. government swiftly implemented excep- on firms and employment, economic A key challenge over the short term is to tional stimulus and accommodative mon- continue supporting the sectors most etary policy to mitigate the health, social measures were introduced that have nar- affected by the pandemic, while ensuring impact and prevent economic scarring. rowed the fiscal space. While unemploy- public debt sustainability. The unprece- The pandemic, heightened uncertainty, and ment impacts have been stymied, work dented policy response to the COVID cri- negative confidence effects dampened pri- stoppages have resulted in considerable sis has narrowed available fiscal space. vate consumption (-3.1 percent) and total household income impacts. The key chal- Increased spending efficiency is needed to investment, (-8.4 percent). Government rebuild fiscal buffers for future countercy- spending to cushion pandemic impacts and lenges over the short term are swiftly roll- clical policies and to prepare for the grow- a higher public wage bill contributed to the ing out vaccinations and ensuring a ro- ing fiscal burden arising from aging. 3.2 percent increase in public consumption, bust economic recovery. The full economic and social impact of while public investment remained stable. COVID-19 hinges on the success of con- Disruptions to international trade and tainment efforts, the vaccination rollout transport and lower demand from key EU and of the policy measures. The second partners caused a 0.5 percent decline in FIGURE 1 Poland / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Poland / Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP growth real GDP per capita Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) Real GDP per capita (LCU constant) 8 14 70000 6 12 60000 4 10 50000 2 8 40000 0 6 30000 -2 -4 4 20000 -6 2 10000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f 0 0 Final consumption Gross Fixed Investment 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Change in inventories Net exports Upper middle-income pov. rate Real GDP pc Statistical Discrepancy GDP growth Source: World Bank. Source: World Bank. Notes: see table 2. MPO 70 Apr 21 exports. Lower domestic expenditure unemployment and earnings losses by sub- throughout Europe. Exceptional policy caused imports to decline 2.6 percent, sidizing salaries and supporting domestic accommodation in Poland and in the EU with net exports contributing 1 percentage enterprises via non-returnable transfers, more broadly is expected to continue point to growth in 2020. loans, tax reliefs and deferrals among others. throughout 2021, including near-zero poli- Although disruptions to RVCs and lock- The unemployment rate increase was con- cy interest rates. This baseline assumes down measures affected industrial activity -( tained to 1 pp. year-on-year by January 2021, that the pandemic is contained, with a 9.4 percent in Q2), the Q3 rebound in do- rising to 6.5 percent. vaccine effectively rolled out in 2021. mestic activity and exports limited the de- The large fiscal stimulus and the decline in The persistence of the crisis is expected to cline to 1.0 percent in 2020. Accommodation economic activity caused the fiscal deficit to put a continued financial strain on poor and catering collapsed by 45.5 percent, rais- widen to an estimated 8.5 percent of GDP in working households that are more vulnera- ing the risk of economic scarring. Most sec- 2020. ble to reductions in hours worked and job tors contracted at a moderate pace, while Inflation reached 3.4 percent in 2020, primar- loss. Therefore, the share of the population real estate activities and ICT expanded. ily on account of lower international fuel at risk of poverty is expected to remain ele- Household income and employment im- prices and food prices. Meanwhile, higher vated through 2021 before gradually recov- pacts of the pandemic were mitigated electricity tariffs and a record low reference ering in 2022. through multiple additional support interest rate prevented a sharper decline in Pent-up domestic demand, especially for measures as well as by demographically inflation. capital and durable goods, and stronger targeted transfers that acted as an income The financial sector's asset quality and capi- demand for Poland’s exports from key EU base for population segments. Rapid assess- tal adequacy remain at satisfactory levels. trading partners will support a recovery in ments show that household income declines the industrial sector and exports. Recovery were more widespread and pronounced in in imports and increased primary income the first pandemic wave. Work stoppages outflows are expected to contribute to a nar- have however had a more pronounced im- Outlook rowing in the current account surplus. Po- pact on lower-wage workers and those in land could receive nearly Euro 28 billion in non-standard contract types, who are also Trade recovery in the euro area, combined grants and guarantees under the “Next Gen- less likely to be covered by protective leave with improved confidence and a rebound eration EU” recovery package to fund its policies. in private consumption and investment is national recovery program, providing sup- The current account surplus rose to 3.5 per- expected to support a moderate recovery port for a green and digital transition. cent of GDP, as imports dropped by USD of around 3.3 percent in 2021, bringing The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow start- 11.6 billion, while primary income outflows output above pre-crisis levels. The outlook ing in 2021, as the economy recovers and as declined by USD 6.6 billion. incorporates the uncertainty arising from support measures are targeted to the most The stimulus packages appear to have been the new strains of the COVID-19 virus and affected sectors and vulnerable groups. effective in preventing a sharper increase in the current pace of vaccination campaigns TABLE 2 Poland / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise) 2018 2019 2020 e 2021 f 2022 f 2023 f Real GDP growth, at constant market prices 5.4 4.5 -2.7 3.3 4.2 4.2 Private Consumption 4.5 3.9 -3.1 3.1 3.4 3.3 Government Consumption 3.5 6.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 Gross Fixed Capital Investment 9.4 7.2 -8.4 5.6 10.2 8.4 Exports, Goods and Services 6.9 5.1 -0.5 2.0 5.1 5.5 Imports, Goods and Services 7.4 3.3 -2.6 2.4 6.1 5.8 Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices 5.3 4.5 -2.8 3.5 4.2 4.2 Agriculture -9.1 0.1 -3.0 5.5 1.0 1.0 Industry 7.0 2.2 -1.0 2.0 2.8 2.9 Services 5.0 5.8 -3.7 4.2 5.0 4.9 Inflation (Consumer Price Index) 1.6 2.3 3.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 0.5 3.5 1.4 0.3 -0.6 Net Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP) -2.6 -1.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.2 -0.7 -8.5 -5.1 -3.2 -2.9 Debt (% of GDP) 48.8 45.7 58.2 59.5 59.0 58.1 Primary Balance (% of GDP) 1.2 0.7 -7.2 -3.8 -1.6 -1.4 Upper middle-income poverty rate ($5.5 in 2011 PPP)a,b 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 Source: World Bank, Poverty & Equity and M acroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practices.
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