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Chance to Buy NAVER Webtoon and Financial at Par Value NAVER (035420 KS) Chance to buy NAVER Webtoon and Financial at par value Internet NAVER Webtoon takes US by storm; We present valuation of W5.7tr Company Report We believe the global growth story of NAVER Webtoon (wholly owned by NAVER) has September 17, 2019 just begun. The webtoon business, a “snack culture” platform created in Korea during the smartphone age, is spreading beyond Japan and Southeast Asia to the US and Europe. We expect NAVER Webtoon’s global growth to accelerate in 3Q19. According to app (Maintain) Buy market researcher Sensor Tower, NAVER Webtoon’s global transaction volume surged 175% YoY in August. By region, transaction volume was up 29% in Korea, 53% in Japan Target Price (12M, W) ▲ 230,000 (LINE Manga), 15,790% in the US, and 5,551% in other regions. In the US, monthly active user (MAU) growth is gathering momentum. NAVER Share Price (09/16/19, W) 154,500 Webtoon’s 2Q19 average revenue per paid user (ARPPU) was W3,681. For NAVER Webtoon, we present a target P/S of 7x, which is Netflix’s (NFLX US/CP: US$294.29) Expected Return 49% multiple during its global expansion phase. Growing e-commerce dominance and ad price increases point to 3Q19 OP (19F, Wbn) 723 earnings surprise Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 759 NAVER’s dominance in the e-commerce market alongside Coupang is becoming more EPS Growth (19F, %) -50.8 evident. In 1H19, NAVER’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew an estimated 26%. In th Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -28.1 comparison, eBay Korea and 11 Street—key rivals in the C2C space—recorded P/E (19F, x) 79.8 negative growth of 1% and 9%, respectively. Market P/E (19F, x) 13.0 In the advertising segment, NAVER’s average price (ad revenue/total session length) KOSPI 2,062.22 was up 20% YoY in 2Q19. In the business platform segment (search engine and Market Cap (Wbn) 25,464 shopping search ads), average price was up 25% based on session length and up 24% Shares Outstanding (mn) 165 based on queries in 2Q19. Such trends suggest earnings will likely improve in 2H19. Free Float (%) 77.3 Furthermore, NAVER increased the prices of banner ads by 30% on average in July Foreign Ownership (%) 59.4 (based on the company’s “combined special display ad” offering), which points to Beta (12M) 0.58 additional earnings improvements. 52-Week Low 106,500 Raise TP to W230,000; NAVER Financial to be further added to our valuation 52-Week High 154,500 We raise our target price on NAVER from W181,000 to W230,000, as we incorporated (%) 1M 6M 12M NAVER Webtoon (W5.7tr, based on P/S of 7x 2020-21F average transaction volume) into Absolute 10.8 18.4 5.8 our valuation. We also plan to reflect NAVER Financial (which will be spun off on Relative 3.5 24.9 19.0 November 1st ), once we gain a clearer picture of the financial business. 110 NAVER KOSPI Our previous target price of W181,000, which is still higher than the current share 100 price, only reflected our valuation of the domestic business and the market value of 90 LINE. We believe the market has not yet priced in the values of NAVER Webtoon and 80 NAVER Financial, which are expected to go public in 2021 or later. In our view, buying NAVER right now is akin to buying NAVER Webtoon and NAVER Financial at par value. 70 60 9.18 1.19 5.19 9.19 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [Internet] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 4,023 4,678 5,587 6,654 7,764 8,882 Chang-kwean Kim +822-3774-1614 OP (Wbn) 1,102 1,179 943 723 1,486 1,860 [email protected] OP margin (%) 27.4 25.2 16.9 10.9 19.1 20.9 NP (Wbn) 749 773 649 319 859 1,182 EPS (W) 4,546 4,689 3,937 1,935 5,213 7,171 ROE (%) 26.2 18.5 13.0 5.9 14.5 17.1 P/E (x) 34.1 37.1 31.0 79.8 29.6 21.5 P/B (x) 5.2 4.8 3.1 3.7 3.3 2.9 Dividend yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. September 17, 2019 NAVER I. Webtoons Webtoon model presents more upside than Netflix in terms of ARPPU Webtoons, or digital comics, are a type of mobile content that originated in Korea. They are not simply an extension of paper comics to an online platform, but rather a whole new type of content business, conceived and developed in the mobile web ecosystem. We see strong upside for webtoons going forward. In Korea, webtoons already account for the second largest share of time spent on apps, after videos. Moreover, the business model is favorable compared to other content platforms; webtoons have only been partially monetized, with strong upside to ARPPU. In comparison, Netflix has monthly pricing plans, YouTube relies on advertising fees, and Spotify (SPOT US/CP: US$128.40) charges users for premium services only. NAVER Webtoon broke even at end-2018 domestically, and is expected to swing to profit globally by the end of this year. Table 1. NAVER Webtoon: Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue 14 16 19 23 25 40 48 57 63 75 92 109 72 170 339 584 842 Content 9 11 12 15 17 32 40 48 54 66 82 98 46 137 300 540 795 Domestic 9 10 11 14 13 21 23 25 22 25 28 29 46 82 104 125 144 US 0 0 0 0 2 7 12 18 25 32 44 57 0 39 158 347 555 Other 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 0 17 38 69 96 Ad/IP/Other 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 26 32 39 43 48 * LINE Manga 14 18 25 27 31 32 34 35 38 40 42 42 85 131 162 185 204 Operating profit -10 -12 -12 -19 -15 -9 -6 -1 2 7 15 24 -54 -32 47 184 310 MAU (mn) 39.3 41.3 43.5 45.9 48.6 51.5 53.8 56.4 58.7 60.8 63.1 65.6 45.9 56.4 65.6 73.6 81.6 Monthly ARPPU (W) 3,346 3,349 3,393 2,717 2,308 3,681 4,087 4,348 4,219 4,709 5,316 5,788 2,147 3,269 4,567 5,833 6,528 YoY growth Content 89 191 233 220 218 106 105 104 198 119 80 47 Domestic 44 110 109 79 69 19 22 16 78 27 20 15 US 1150 357 267 217 305 120 60 Other 250 125 100 100 124 82 39 * LINE Manga 121 78 36 30 23 25 24 20 54 24 14 10 QoQ growth Content 22 9 25 13 88 25 20 13 22 24 20 Domestic 11 10 27 -7 62 10 9 -12 14 12 4 US 250 71 50 39 28 38 30 Other 100 25 20 17 29 11 20 * LINE Manga 29 39 8 15 3 6 3 9 5 5 0 Source: SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. NAVER Webtoon: Percentage of monthly revenue by country 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18 1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 Domestic 99.4% 99.5% 99.5% 99.5% 99.6% 99.5% 99.4% 99.5% 95.3% 89.1% 87.9% 85.7% 83.2% 78.6% 73.4% 70.1% US 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 2.0% 4.9% 4.8% 6.7% 9.8% 13.5% 18.4% 20.5% Thailand 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.4% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% Taiwan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 2.3% Indonesia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% Other 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 2.4% 3.0% 3.1% Source: SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 September 17, 2019 NAVER Figure 1. NAVER Webtoon: Quarterly revenue (Wbn) 70 Full-scale introduction of new pay-as-you-go model in 2H19 60 50 +150% YoY 40 Paid mode introduction 30 (US, etc.) Paid mode introduction 20 (Domestic) 10 0 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19(F) 4Q19F(F) Source: SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 2.
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