Smallholder Milk Production in the Punjab of Pakistan and the Evaluation of Potential Interventions

Institute of Animal Production in the Tropics and Subtropics Section Animal Breeding and Husbandry University of Hohenheim Prof. Dr. Christian F. Gall Smallholder milk production in the Punjab of Pakistan and the evaluation of potential interventions Dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the Degree of Doctor of Agricultural Sciences to the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences by Nils Teufel from Bremen 2007 With support by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Herzog-Carl-Stiftung Defence of the dissertation: 24/02/2006, University of Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany Examiners: Prof. Dr. C. F. Gall, Prof. Dr. F. Heidhues, Prof. Dr. H.-P. Piepho Acknowledgements During the time it has taken to complete this study, help and support has been provided by a great number of people and institutions. There is no doubt that the study would not have taken place without the initiative and support of Prof. Dr. Christian Gall, my mentor for many years. His insight in livestock production systems and his concern for rural development in addition to his patience, good-will and commitment were fundamental for bringing the study forward to its present state. For all this I would like to express my deep gratitude and wish him many more years of enthusiastic activity. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Franz Heidhues and Prof. Dr. Hans-Peter Piepho for agreeing to participate in the evaluation process of this study. The economic framework of this study was formed and guided by Prof. Martin Upton and Prof. Dr. Tahir Rehman during a 6-month visit as guest scientist to The University of Reading. I would like to thank them and the whole Department of Agricultural and Food Economics for the encouragement I received during this period, which was supported financially by the Herzog-Carl-Stiftung. The subsequent study period in Pakistan was funded by the German Academic Exchange Foundation (DAAD), which is kindly acknowledged. It is not possible to do justice to all who helped and gave support in Pakistan, both in Lahore and in the study area along the banks of the river Ravi. Nevertheless, some have to be mentioned, representing the many others. Ernst Grosse Herrenthey of the GTZ, project leader at the Livestock & Dairy Development Department, Lahore, not only provided for the institional backup, but also gave guidance and support without which the stay in Pakistan would never have been such a success. All resources required for the extensive field work were made available by the GTZ, which is gratefully acknowledged. Within the Livestock & Dairy Development Department, Dr. Sajjad Zaheer Malik, director general, as well as Prof. Dr. Mansoor Ahmad, Dr. Mushtaq Ahmad Sajji and Dr. Raza Ahmad Khan gave valuable support. In the GTZ office help from Pervez Yousaf Chand, the late Shafat Khan, Rehmat, Asif and Qadir was always available. The success of the household surveys was only possible through the active support of an institution with a good access to rural livestock keepers. This institution is Idara-e-Kissan, which supported the study wherever possible. Amongst the many involved I would like to mention, Syed Bukhari, Noor-ul-Hassan Tehseen, Dr. Tayyab Munir, Zafar Ullah and Dr. Rabbani, not only for introducing us to the survey villages, but also providing answers to the many questions and a comfortable base. The initial cross-sectional survey would not have been possible without the enthusiasm of the enumerators Gulzar, Bashir, Muhammad Arif and Ahsan Ullah. Ahsan Ullah carried on with the study, becoming the major collaborator in the longitudinal survey, organising data recording, carrying out monthly visits and subsequently entering data. And in the course of 18 months he became a very dear friend. My best wishes to him and his family. Thanks also to Sumera Sadaf for her interviews with female household members, despite the social difficulties. I would also like to thank the many families in the villages between Pattoki and Syedwala who endured all those tedious questions. We got especially close to the households we visited during the longitudinal survey. It was really touching to be asked – after 13 months of questioning – how we could be leaving already, now that we had just got acquainted. For academic support the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad proved invaluable. Prof. Dr. Raza Ali Gill, Prof. Dr. Bashir Ahmad and Dr. Aslam Chaudrhy all gave many important contributions and suggestions. The support by the late Prof. Dr. Agha Sajjad Haider with his intimate knowledge and understanding of village society as well as of development research deserves special acknowledgements. His enthusiasm and good humour was infectious. The Punjab Economic Research Institute (PERI) was a valuable support for finding reliable secondary data, not an easy task. Back at the University of Hohenheim in Stuttgart, Prof. Dr. Anne Valle Zárate welcomed me at the Institute of Animal Production in the Tropics and Subtropics and gave her full support during all the time it took to complete this study, together with all members of the department. Of these I would like to mention Dr. Ossama Dimassi, because of his patience in sharing an office over the past years. I would also like to acknowledge the support provided by Prof. Dr. Stefan Dabbert, Dr. Fritz Aldinger, Reiner Leibfried and Joachim Aurbacher of the Institute for Farm Management, Production Theory and Resource Economics for enabling the use of GAMS and giving valuable modelling suggestions. The final compilation of the thesis would not have been possible without Dr. Christian Hülsebusch, who provided corrections, an attentive ear whenever it was needed and kept reminding me of my real priorities. Also Clemens Breisinger and Dr. Karlheinz Michels gave great assistance with suggestions and corrections of important sections. Finally, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my wife Erika and our children Jonathan, Adam and Marie for following the trail of this study and putting up with a husband and father working long hours, not paying attention and never being really sure what the next months would bring. There is a good chance of some improvement. TABLE OF CONTENTS I Table of contents Table of contents ................................................................................................................................i List of tables..................................................................................................................................... vii List of figures.................................................................................................................................... xii List of equations.............................................................................................................................. xiii List of abbreviations ........................................................................................................................ xiv 1 Summaries ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Abstract................................................................................................................................1 1.2 Zusammenfassung .............................................................................................................. 3 2 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 7 3 Literature review......................................................................................................................... 9 3.1 Assessment of interventions................................................................................................ 9 3.2 Objectives in household models ........................................................................................ 13 3.2.1 Multiple objectives in farm household models............................................................. 13 3.2.2 Identifying and weighting of objectives........................................................................ 14 3.3 Multiple-Criteria-Decision-Making (MCDM) ....................................................................... 16 3.3.1 Goal programming....................................................................................................... 17 3.3.2 Multiple-objective programming .................................................................................. 18 3.3.3 Compromise programming.......................................................................................... 19 3.3.4 Interactive multiple criteria decision-making................................................................ 21 3.4 Household classification .................................................................................................... 22 3.4.1 Cluster analysis ........................................................................................................... 23 3.4.2 Discriminant analysis................................................................................................... 25 3.5 Structure of agriculture in the Punjab of Pakistan.............................................................. 25 3.5.1 Settlement history and resource ownership ................................................................ 25 3.5.2 Livestock resources in the Punjab............................................................................... 27 3.5.3 Major crops.................................................................................................................

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