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US Restaurants Food for Thought: Shakin’ Things Up

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8 November 2019 Equity Research Americas | United States US Restaurants Food for Thought: Shakin’ Things Up Restaurants | Weekly Analysis This is our weekly US Restaurants note that highlights the most significant news as it pertains Research Analysts to our coverage and industry. An Eventful Week in Restaurants Lauren Silberman 212 325 2720 McDonald’s: McDonald’s announced it appointed Chris Kempczinski, previously President of [email protected] McDonald’s USA, as CEO, succeeding Steve Easterbrook. Joe Erlinger was appointed President, McDonald’s USA, most recently President, International Operated Markets. While Easterbrook’s departure is viewed as a major loss, investors appear confident in MCD’s talented bench, and do not expect a meaningful change in strategy, pointing to Kempczinski’s contribution to the development of the US growth drivers over the last couple of years, and impressive strength in international markets. Our thoughts on CEO Change Shake Shack: Shake Shack (SHAK) has been down 25%+ this week following a disappointing 3Q19 earnings print and lowered 2019 SSS and restaurant margin guidance (though SHAK had run up ~15% since 2Q19). The thesis on SHAK is dependent on robust unit growth potential, and there are concerns regarding the longer-term margin profile and SHAK’s willingness/ability to raise prices and offset the margin degradation. We believe the reaction is overblown – the SSS drag from the delivery transition should be transitory and somewhat offset by the co-marketing campaign with Grubhub that began this week – we estimate NYC represents ~30% of SSS and the NYC & Northeast represent ~65% together – with Grubhub likely strongest in these markets. Papa John’s: Papa John’s (PZZA) has been up ~8% following 3Q19 earnings, and ~40% since it appointed Rob Lynch as CEO at the end of August. As we highlighted in our recent upgrade note, New Coach, Proven Playbook; Upgrade to Outperform, we have increased confidence in the brand’s ability to execute a turnaround, with 3Q19 marking the first quarter of positive SSS in nearly two years. PZZA also announced several management changes, including the departures of CFO Joe Smith (early 2020), Chief Marketing Officer Karlin Linhardt and Chief Operating & Growth Officer Mike Nettles. Max Wetzel is joining in mid-November as Chief Commercial and Marketing Officer, Jim Norberg has been named Chief Operating Officer, North America, and Jack Swaysland has been named Chief Operating Officer, International. Wendy’s: Wendy’s (WEN) reported 3Q19 earnings, though it was largely uneventful following its recent Investor Day on 10/11 (our Investor Day takeaways), with investors primarily focused on the execution of the breakfast launch in 2020. Next Week in Restaurants We will be attending the Restaurant Finance & Development Conference (RFDC) in Las Vegas. Notable News 1) McDonald’s appoints Chris Kempczinski as CEO, succeeding Steve Easterbrook; 2) Papa John’s announces management changes, including search for new CFO; 3) TGI Fridays expected to go public following acquisition/merger agreement; 4) Papa John’s launched a new Garlic Parmesan Crust Pizza; and 5) Starbucks and Dunkin’ both unveiled holiday cups. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 8 November 2019 Weekly Restaurant News TGI Fridays: Privately held TGI Fridays and Allegro Merger Corp. announced they signed a definitive agreement for a business combination, to take the company public in a deal valued at ~$380MM. The business combination is expected to close in early 2020. (press release TGI Fridays/Allegro Merger Corp.; 8 October 2019) Noodles: Noodles is marking up its delivery menu by ~10%, noting minimal pushback so far. (news article Nation’s Restaurant News; 8 November 2019) McDonald’s: McDonald’s announced it signed two long-term, large-scale power purchase agreements, agreeing to buy renewable energy to prevent 700K+ metric tons of carbon emissions annually (equivalent to planting 11 million trees, taking 140K cars off the road for one year, 2,500+ restaurants-worth of electricity). (press release McDonald’s; 7 November 2019) Restaurant Industry: Saudia Arabia’s Public Investment Fund invested $400MM in CloudKitchens, Travis Kalanick’s (founder & former CEO of Uber) ghost kitchen startup, in January, valuing the company at ~$5BN. (news article WSJ; 7 November 2019) Chipotle: Chipotle is running its annual Military Appreciation promotion on Veterans Day (11/11), with all military and veterans qualifying for a BOGO offer on any burrito, bowl, salad or taco. (press release Chipotle; 7 November 2019) Burger King/Carrols: Carrols Restaurant Group (1,000+ Burger King restaurants) reported 3Q19 SSS of 4.5%, driven by the launch of the Impossible Whopper, 2 for $6 Mix & Match and $1 Crispy Taco. SSS would have been 7.4% excluding the impact of excess sales discounts specific to Carrols’ restaurants. September SSS were 7.9%, with strong sales that continued into October. Carrols’ Burger King restaurants tend to outperform the system by ~200bps. (press release Carrols Restaurant Group; 7 November 2019) McDonald’s: From 11/7-11/11, McDonald’s is running a Surprise Happy Meal promotion to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Happy Meal, featuring popular toys from the past 40 years. (press release McDonald’s; 6 November 2019) Dunkin’: Dunkin’ plans to open 18 new restaurants in partnership with new franchisee, Manchester Enterprises, in summer 2020, in Houston, TX. (press release Dunkin’; 6 November 2019) Starbucks: On 11/7, Starbucks brought back its seasonal menu items, including the Peppermint Mocha, Eggnog Latte, Holiday Turkey & Stuffing Panini and others. (press release Starbucks; 6 November 2019) Taco Bell: Taco Bell is awarding more than $6MM in tuition money in 2019 to students through Live Más Scholarships as part of its seven year commitment to award $21MM in scholarships by 2021. (press release Taco Bell; 6 November 2019) Bloomin’ Brands: Bloomin’ Brands announced it is evaluating strategic alternatives, including a possible sale. (news article Nation’s Restaurant News; 6 November 2019) Starbucks: On 11/7, Starbucks stores in the US and Canada gave away free, reusable red cups to customers who ordered holiday beverages. From 11/7-1/6, customers with a reusable red cup are eligible for a $0.50 discount on grande holiday beverages after 2PM. (press release Starbucks; 6 November 2019) Papa John’s: Papa John’s announced senior management changes this week, including the departures of CFO Joe Smith (early 2020), Chief Marketing Officer Karlin Linhardt and Chief Operating and Growth Officer Mike Nettles. Max Wetzel will be joining in mid-November as Chief Commercial and Marketing Officer, Jim Norberg was appointed as Chief Operating Officer, North America and Jack Swaysland has been named Chief Operating Officer, International. (press release Papa John’s; 6 November 2019) Buffalo Wild Wings: Diversified Restaurant Holdings (SAUC), one of Buffalo Wild Wing’s largest franchisees with 64 units, announced an agreement to be acquired by private equity firm ICV Partners in a transaction valued at ~$130MM. (press release Diversified Restaurant Holdings; 6 November 2019) US Restaurants 2 8 November 2019 Sonic: Sonic added Chili Cheese Bites and Bacon Mac & Cheese Bites, both starting at $1.99 for six pieces. (news article Brand Eating; 6 November 2019) IHOP: IHOP is offering a holiday menu in collaboration with The Elf on a Shelf. IHOP is also offering a seasonal dine-in deal from 4-10PM where kids under 12 can eat free with the purchase of an adult entrée. (press release IHOP; 6 November 2019) Chipotle: Chipotle announced new benefits for more than 80K employees beginning in 2020, including access to one-on-one mental health and emotional support counseling. (press release Chipotle; 5 November 2019) Shake Shack: Shack Shack is expanding its test of the four-day work week, noting positive employee feedback and enhanced recruiting potential. (news article Nation’s Restaurant News; 5 November 2019) Popeyes: Popeyes is bringing back Cajun Turkey to its menu for the holiday season. The 10- 14lb Louisiana seasoned turkey costs ~$50 and is available through Thanksgiving at most locations. (news article Brand Eating; 5 November 2019) Dunkin’: Dunkin’ is giving veterans and active duty military free donuts on Veterans Day (11/11). The first 50 veterans and active duty military will also receive a thank you card written by members of the community. (press release Dunkin’; 5 November 2019) Dunkin’: Throughout November, Dunkin’ is offering $2 Medium Latte, Cappuccino and Americano beverages from 2-6PM as part of its Happy Hour program. (press release Dunkin’; 4 November 2019) Chicken Salad Chick: Chicken Salad Chick (Alabama based fast casual chain) was acquired by Brentwood Associates (investor in Blaze Pizza) from Eagle Merchant Partners. (news article QSR Magazine; 4 November 2019) Papa John’s: Papa John’s launched Garlic Parmesan Crust Pizza, marking the first time the company has changed its dough recipe. The pizza is available nationwide for $10. (press release Papa John’s; 4 November 2019) Dunkin’: Dunkin’ has rolled out its holiday menu, including a few new signature lattes. Dunkin’ is also introducing new holiday cups with a joyful holiday word. (press release Dunkin’; 4 November 2019) McDonald’s: McDonald’s announced David Fairhurst, Chief People Officer, left McDonald’s after 15 years with the company. (news article WSJ; 4 November 2019) Starbucks: On Veterans Day (11/11), Starbucks will donate a portion of every cup of brewed coffee to two non-profits.
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    Journal of Hospitality Financial Management The Professional Refereed Journal of the Association of Hospitality Financial Management Educators Volume 24 | Issue 1 Article 1 5-23-2016 2016 – A YEAR IN REVIEW FOR RESTAURANT FIRMS Atul Sheel Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/jhfm Recommended Citation Sheel, Atul (2016) "2016 – A YEAR IN REVIEW FOR RESTAURANT FIRMS," Journal of Hospitality Financial Management: Vol. 24 : Iss. 1 , Article 1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10913211.2016.1174034 Available at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/jhfm/vol24/iss1/1 This Editor's Note is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Hospitality Financial Management by an authorized editor of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management ISSN: 1091-3211 (Print) 2152-2790 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/uhfm20 2016 - A Year in Review for Restaurant Firms Atul Sheel To cite this article: Atul Sheel (2016) 2016 - A Year in Review for Restaurant Firms, The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 24:1, 1-4, DOI: 10.1080/10913211.2016.1174034 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/10913211.2016.1174034 Published online: 23 May 2016. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 674 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions