Europa Regina: the Effect of World War II on European Female Labor
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Europa Regina: The Effect of World War II on European Female Labor Helen Harris Advisor: Carol Shiue, Economics Honors Council Representative: Martin Boileau, Economics Committee Member: Lorraine Bayard de Volo, Women and Gender Studies April 7th, 2017 ________ Previous research suggests that WWII induced a lasting increase in American female labor force participation. This paper explores if WWII influenced European female labor force participation in a similar way from 1940 to 1960. The analysis regresses changes in female labor force participation after the war, on changes in military mobilization rates for 17 European countries. The results show that the European female labor force participation growth rate decreased during the decade 1940-1950 and increased from 1940-1960. While these results are statistically significant and female specific, they are relatively small in magnitude. Within these changes were sectoral changes, primarily a decrease in white-collar growth for both time frames. The mechanisms for these changes most likely stem from a post-war baby boom and an increase in national education levels. ________ 1. Introduction World War II caused political upheaval, transformations in foreign policy, and economic disruption for countries across the world. A less noticeable, but still important, change that the war sparked was a long-term increase in female labor force participation in the United States (Goldin and Olivetti, 2013). Goldin and others argue that the massive military personnel mobilization during the war created vacuums in the male dominated work force, which were filled by women. While the long-term impact varied depending on women’s socio-economic level, familial status, and education, this experience of drastic mobilization changes may have had a hand in transforming the American female labor supply into what is seen today (Goldin and Olivetti, 2013). Research about the war and female labor has predominantly focused on the United States. Arguably though, the United States had a unique war experience due to the high level of involvement, yet low levels of physical damage that it sustained. In contrast, many countries in Europe also faced large amounts of civilian casualties, obliteration of infrastructure, and economic crises in addition to the changes in mobilization rates. To quantitatively investigate the European war experience and compare it to that of the United States, this analysis examines how different experiences across countries during WWII affected short- and long-term changes in female labor force participation. This paper regresses the short- and long-term percent changes in female labor force participation on percent changes in national mobilization rates, while controlling for pre-war levels of education, marriage, and birth rates. To explain any variations in female labor force participation, alterations in sectoral participation and their relationships to changes in mobilization rates are also examined. The same analysis is then applied to male labor force participation to explore possible macroeconomic fluctuations that existed and would have affected the labor force in total. The analysis aims to determine if there was a war-induced change, which sectors were driving forces, and if this change was female specific. 2. Literature Review Recent research on WWII and European female labor can be divided into two categories: the influence of WWII and general motivators. The first of these focuses specifically on effects of WWII on female labor force participation. The second has a more general scope and explores the different general motivators of female labor. 2.1 Relationship of WWII and Female Labor Force Participation: This section of literature covers several of the general motivators, however one common feature is that the research focuses on changes in the American labor force. While Olivetti (2013) executes an analysis involving multiple countries with a time frame that saddles WWII, the specific conflict caused effects are analyzed with a focus on the American labor force. Acemoglu, Autor, and Lyle (2004) use mobilization rates during the war to examine women entering the labor force and the effect that this had on wages for both men and women. Similarly, Jaworski (2014) examines the war’s negative impact on female education which in turn lowered women’s wages in the short-run. Goldin and Olivetti (2013) published the research most similar to this paper. They also use the methodology of mobilization rates to reassess one of Goldin’s previous studies (Goldin 1991), which looked at the long-term impact of the war on American female labor force participation rates. This reassessment contradicts the original work’s conclusion, and finds that instead of the war having weak effects, as previously thought, it did alter the female labor supply. Furthermore, they compare their results to the revisionist and “watershed” theories outlined previously in Goldin’s other work (Goldin 1991). The “watershed” theory is the idea that the war caused significant changes in the ideological structure of the US, and because of this, the women who entered the workforce during the war remained in the work force later on. The revisionist theory contradicts this argument by noting the many women who were pushed out of the work force in the long-run because of gender norms. Goldin and Olivetti’s conclusion combines the two theories and supports the hypothesis that women with higher education experienced the “watershed” theory, while less educated women experienced the revisionist situation. More specifically, the authors find that higher mobilization rates impacted women with higher education, and that the short-term effects (1950) were felt primarily by married women without children during the war. In the long-run (1960), however, the war also impacted married women with children during the war. 2.2 General Motivators of Female Labor Force Participation: Of the many incentives highlighted by researchers, theorists, and authors, the most prevalent influence on women’s labor decision is societal norms. Dao (2014) focuses on the impact of social norms pertaining to parenthood and housewives. Göksel (2013) also explores the role of norms but chooses instead to examine the role of conservatism and religion. While her research pertains to Turkey and traditional Islam, it would be possible to argue that the negative effects of conservative norms on female labor force participation that Göksel (2013) finds are influential to varying degrees in other societies too. The role of Islam and non-secular rule is further explored by Mehmood, Ahmad, and Imran (2015), but their findings, while including some norms, focus primarily on factors such as the cost of living, education, and women’s support systems, and finds that these other factors outweigh the effects of conservatism. The idea of norms is measured in various ways in the different analyses. Göksel (2013) creates dummy variables to represent conservatism which are based on survey questions about the role of religion, while Mehmood, Ahmad, and Imran (2015) calculate their female empowerment variable as equivalent to the prevalence of contraceptives. Education is the second most noted factor in an abundance of papers. Shah (1990), Mehmood, Ahmad, and Imran (2015), and Goldin (2006) all examine the role of education and find almost unanimously that as women’s education becomes more prominent in a society, women start to face higher opportunity costs for not working, so labor force participation increases. Several other cultural and political factors are outlined in various pieces such as government policy relating to child care subsidies or tax breaks, as outlined by the OECD Economics Department (2004). Continuing on the more national scale, Moghadam (1990) argues that a country’s economic status as a whole is relevant for female labor, and Olivetti (2013) expands on this idea, concluding that there is a U-shaped relationship between the two. Part of the economic status that Fernandez, Olivetti, and Fogli (2004) point to is a growth in the service sector, and a corresponding increase in availability of part-time positions. They also examine factors which act on the more individual level, including the availability of reliable birth control, domestic appliances decreasing the domestic workload, and familial norms. An interesting familial norm examined by both Fernandez, Olivetti, and Fogli (2004) and Morrill and Morrill (2013), is the relationship between women working and their mother’s and mother-in-law’s participation in the labor force. The two pieces together argue that while women are influenced by their own mothers, they are more influenced by their mother-in-law due to marriage preferences that men develop through their family norms. This type of individual level analysis can be very specific, and has a broad range. For example, Slakever (1990) finds a stronger negative impact of a disabled child on labor supply and earnings for mothers than for fathers. 2.3 Non-Economic Literature: Outside of the strictly economic scope, the relationship between war and women is well developed in qualitative analysis. This relationship can be examined through both historic and women’s studies lenses, with each area highlighting different aspects. Women’s studies researchers have emphasized the effects of war such as increased violence towards women through war time violence, such as rape, and domestic violence or stress induced incidents such as those caused by PTSD. Another aspect highlighted by this area is the push for gender equality leading to equality in the armed forces, which could normalize the effects of war between men and women, since both are affected in a more similar, direct manner (Bayard de Volo, 2016). Similar to the economic literature, there is a strand of historical literature which explores the changing of norms of women’s role in society and the household. A prevalent point of view is that war causes a disruption of norms, so after war societies try to return to “normality”, or the norms which were accepted before the war (Kent, 2016).