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On the role of the weather in the deaths of R. F. Scott and his companions Susan Solomon*† and Charles R. Stearns‡ *Aeronomy Laboratory, §National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80303; and ‡Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 Edited by James E. Hansen, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, and approved August 27, 1999 (received for review June 21, 1999) Robert Falcon Scott and his companions reached the South Pole in neering studies of polar meteorology; in that work he concluded January of 1912, only to die on their return journey at a remote site that ‘‘Captain Scott experienced unusually low temperatures on on the Ross Ice Shelf, about 170 miles from their base camp on the his return from the pole’’ (ref. 4, p. 32). Simpson is quoted by coast. Numerous contributing causes for their deaths have been another surviving member of the expedition as stating that the proposed, but it has been assumed that the cold temperatures they polar party would have survived in 9 of 10 years, but struck the reported encountering on the Ross Ice Shelf, near 82–80°S during 10th unlucky one (ref. 2, p. 594). their northward trek toward safety, were not unusual. The History at first lionized Scott as a hero, but later studies raised weather in the region where they perished on their unassisted trek questions about his leadership. Some factors that are often by foot from the Pole remained undocumented for more than half suggested as contributing to the lethal end of his trek include the a century, but it has now been monitored by multiple automated general health of his ponies when purchased, the reliance weather stations for more than a decade. The data recorded by primarily on man-hauling and on ponies (rather than sled dogs) Scott and his men from late February to March 19, 1912, display to transport supplies, the lack of experience with skis, and the daily temperature minima that were on average 10 to 20°F below decision to include five men in the polar party rather than the those obtained in the same region and season since routine original plan of four (ref. 2, pp. 565–566). Vitamin deficiencies modern observations began in 1985. Only 1 year in the available 15 such as scurvy or pellagra (attributable to poor diet) have years of measurements from the location where Scott and his men frequently been advanced as the primary cause of his demise (5, perished displays persistent cold temperatures at this time of year 6). A blizzard that struck the team near 83°S while en route to close to those reported in 1912. These remarkably cold tempera- the pole in December, 1911, also added to the expedition’s tures likely contributed substantially to the exhaustion and frost- difficulties by laying down a deep layer of soft snow that impeded bite Scott and his companions endured, and their deaths were their progress (7). Remarkably, Scott’s and Simpson’s state- therefore due, at least in part, to the unusual weather conditions ments regarding the temperatures in March of 1912 have been they endured during their cold march across the Ross Ice Shelf of largely ignored. A few authors explicitly dismissed suggestions of Antarctica. severe weather (8), perhaps because such conditions were as- sumed to be typical for the harsh climate of Antarctica. n November of 1911, Captain Robert Falcon Scott led a team It is not our goal to evaluate the relative contributions of each Iof men south from their base at Cape Evans on McMurdo of the many factors that could have played some role in the fatal Sound, striving to be the first to arrive at the South Pole and to outcome of Scott’s polar journey. Rather, we focus in this paper claim this historic achievement in exploration for Britain. They only on the question of whether the temperatures encountered marched and skied over the Ross Ice Shelf, up the Beardmore in the last month of the lives of Scott and his companions posed Glacier, and across the south Polar Plateau for more than 900 an unusual challenge in the final stages of their struggle for miles (see Fig. 1), reaching the Pole in January, 1912. There they survival. We will show that observations made possible only by found what they had feared—the flag of Norway, which had been modern meteorological instruments that began recording data planted by Roald Amundsen and his team almost a month more than half a century after Scott’s death indeed demonstrate earlier. Scott and two remaining companions ended their terri- that he and his men perished following a battle with conditions ble trek of more than 1,600 miles near the end of March, 1912, far colder than average for this region of the Ross Ice Shelf. in a tent at roughly 79.6°S, 170°E, about 170 miles from the safety Meteorological Data: Historical and Modern of their base, after completing an epic journey wholly by foot in the most inhospitable place in the world (ref. 1; ref. 2, p. xxxviii). Temperatures have been routinely measured at a handful of As they marched to their deaths, some of the men kept manned Antarctic stations since about the 1950s, but most of journals. On February 27, 1912, E. A. Wilson ended his very last these are located near the coast. The inland temperatures of the diary entry with the stark words ‘‘Turned in at Ϫ37 (°F)’’ (ref. region of the Ross Ice Shelf where Scott and his men ended their 3, p. 245). Scott continued writing, and on March 10, 1912, he march (see Fig. 1) have remained largely undocumented until wrote that ‘‘the weather conditions are awful’’ (ref. 1, p. 588). In about the past two decades. Even today, accurate and represen- his last days, Scott also penned numerous farewell letters. tative measurements of surface temperature can only be made Among these was a ‘‘Message to the Public,’’ in which he by local methods, because the steep inversions, low-level clouds, presented his view of the problems that had plagued their and ice fog that frequently prevail in the Antarctic render expedition (such as the loss in the previous summer of several of the ponies that were used to pull their supplies part of the way). This paper was submitted directly (Track II) to the PNAS office. But he stressed that ‘‘all the facts above enumerated were as nothing to the surprise which awaited us on the Barrier...our Abbreviation: ENSO, El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation. † wreck is certainly due to this sudden advent of severe weather, To whom reprint requests should be addressed at: 4360 Hanover, Boulder, CO 80303. E-mail: [email protected]. which does not seem to have any satisfactory cause’’ (ref. 1, §The views presented in this paper are those of the authors and not an agency position on p. 606). the part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The meteorologist of Scott’s expedition was George C. Simp- The publication costs of this article were defrayed in part by page charge payment. This son, who left Antarctica before Scott’s body was found. In 1919, article must therefore be hereby marked “advertisement” in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Simpson published a three-volume treatise reporting his pio- §1734 solely to indicate this fact. 13012–13016 ͉ PNAS ͉ November 9, 1999 ͉ vol. 96 ͉ no. 23 Downloaded by guest on October 1, 2021 Fig. 2. Averaged monthly temperature climatologies from the automated weather stations (see Fig. 1) at McMurdo Sound (dashed line, Marble Point data for 1980–1996) and for the Ross Ice Shelf at 79.9°S (solid line, station 3 of Fig. 1, for 1985–1998). The open symbols show meteorological data taken at Cape Evans on McMurdo Sound during Scott’s expedition in 1911 and 1912 (ref. 4, p. 11), which agree well with the nearby Marble Point data. The closed symbols show Simpson’s estimate of the likely annual cycle of temperature on the ice shelf (see text). Fig. 1. Map of the Antarctic, with expanded view of the Ross Ice Shelf across which Scott and his men marched. Their base camp was located at Cape Evans on Ross Island, and they traveled south near the 170°E meridian to the South The monthly averaged observations made at Cape Evans Pole. Contemporary automated weather station sites near their route are during 1911 and 1912 (ref. 4, p. 11) are compared with the numbered 1 through 5. long-term average provided by 17 years of automated weather station data that are now available from the site at Marble Point on McMurdo Sound (station 1 in Fig. 1) in Fig. 2. This satellite techniques of limited use in detecting the temperature comparison broadly supports the accuracy of Simpson’s calibra- at the ground. Beginning in the early 1980s, a network of tion standards. automated weather stations was installed at remote sites around The rapid onset of Antarctic winter cooling after the summer the continent, allowing for routine measurements of surface solstice was expected by Scott and his meteorologist, based temperature, pressure, wind, and humidity (see ref. 9 for details largely on observations carried out during Scott’s previous south of the instrument design and data quality checks). Data are polar expedition of 1902–1904 (ref. 4, pp. 85–91). Simpson also reported every 10 minutes and are transmitted in real-time. recognized that the climate in the region of McMurdo Sound is Temperatures are measured by solid platinum wire resistance moderated in part by the relative warmth of the nearby ocean thermometers and are calibrated and read out to an accuracy of (ref.

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