THE MILTON FRIEDMAN INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS MFI Working Paper Series No. 2010-010 On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends Jules H. van Binsbergen Northwestern Kellogg, Stanford GSB and NBER Michael W. Brandt Duke University and NBER Ralph S.J. Koijen Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER October 2010 1126 East 59th Street Chicago, Illinois 60637 T: 773.702.7587 F: 773.795.6891
[email protected] On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends∗ Jules H. van Binsbergen† Michael W. Brandt‡ Ralph S.J. Koijen§ Northwestern Kellogg Duke University Chicago Booth and Stanford GSB and NBER and NBER and NBER This version: October 2010 Abstract We recover prices of dividend strips on the aggregate stock market using data from derivatives markets. The price of a k-year dividend strip is the present value of the dividend paid in k years. The value of the stock market is the sum of all dividend strip prices across maturities. We study the properties of strips and find that expected returns, Sharpe ratios, and volatilities on short-term strips are higher than on the aggregate stock market, while their CAPM betas are well below one. Short-term strip prices are more volatile than their realizations, leading to excess volatility and return predictability. ∗First draft: June 2009. We are grateful to Ravi Bansal, Robert Battalio, Alessandro Beber, John Campbell, John Cochrane, George Constantinides, Zhi Da, Peter DeMarzo, Joost Driessen, Darrell Duffie, Pengjie Gao, John Heaton, Xavier Gabaix, Nicolae Garleanu, Lars Hansen, Otto van Hemert, Mark Hendricks,