Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1986 Turmoil, transition...triumph? The democratic revolution in the Philippines. Jagoe, Donald Alan http://hdl.handle.net/10945/22160 SCHOOL ,, 93943-S008 7 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESI S TURMOIL, TRANSITION.. .TRIUMPH? THE DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION IN THE PHILIPPINES by Donald Alan Jagoe June 1986 Thesis Advisor: Claude A. Buss Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited T 2348 7 UNCLASSIFIED .CURirv CLASSIFICATION OP TwiS PAGE REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE j REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION lb. RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3 DISTRIBUTION /AVAIIA8IUTY OF REPORT Approved for public release; 3 DECLASSIFICATION /DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE distribution is unlimited. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 5 MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUM3ER(S) |s. NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION (If applicable) aval Postgraduate School Code 56 Naval Postgraduate School :. ADDRESS (Cry, State, and ZIP Code) 7b ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) onterey, California 93943-5100 Monterey, California 93943-5100 a. NAME OF FUNDING /SPONSORING 8b OFFICE SYMBOL 9 PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZATION (If applicable) i ADDRESS (Cry. Stare, and ZIP Code) 10 SOURCE OF FUNDING NUM8ERS PROGRAM PROJECT TAS< WORK JNI T ELEMENT NO NO NO ACCESSION NO ' TITLE (include Security- Classification) TURMOIL, TRANSITION. .TRIUMPH? THE DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION IN THE PHILIPPINES PERSONAL AUTMOR(S) agoe, Donald Alan 3a *v?5 OF REPORT 13b TIME COVERED 14 DATE OF REPORT (Year, Month, Day) 15 PAGE COUN 1 laste'r ' s Thesis FROM TO June 1986 164 6 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION COSATI CODES 18 SUBJECT TERMS {Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) GROUP SUB-GROUP Philippines, Marcos, Aquino, Presidential Election 9 ABSTRAC {Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) In November of 1985, Ferdinand Marcos, President of the Republic of the Philippines, announced that he would hold a "snap" Presidential election, ["his election took place on 7 February, 1986, in a highly charged atmosphere Df partisan politics marked by intimidation, widespread poll irregularities and intense domestic and foreign scrutiny. The United States' official position remained fluid in an attempt to balance U.S. strategic and economic national interests with those of the Filipino people. The essential Philippine national interest at stake was the viability of the democratic process as an expression of the will of a free people. Following a hotly disputed count the incumbent President Marcos claimed victory, a move similarly taken by his opposition opponent, Mrs. Corazon Aquino. The resulting civil strife threatened peace in the Philippines and posed significant questions for U.S. foreign policy, specifically, the relative Z> i"f'3UT:ON /AVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 21 ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 0.-NC-ASSiF'ED/UNL!MlTED SAME AS RPT Q OTIC USERS !2a NAME OF RESPONSIBLE iNOiViOUAL 22b TELEPHONE (Include Area Code) 22c OFFICE SYMBOL Prof. Claude A. Buss l 646-2521 Code 5 6Bx edition may used until exhausted )D FORM 1473, 34 mar 33 APR be SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF '.-nS PAGE All other editions are obsolete UNCLASSIFIED 1 UNCLASSIFIED SCCuHlTY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGB (Whan Dmm Sn(«r«<) 19 priority of democratic values vis a vis strategic interests and the role of the United States in mitigating the rise of a communist insurgency there. This is a case study of the development of that election and the role that the United States did and could have played in it. Additionally, it examines the national interests of both countries as expressed during and after the election. UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS P AGEfWTtmn Dai* Enffd) Approved for public release; distribution unlimited Turmoil, Transition...Triumph?: The Democratic Revolution in the Philippines by Donald Alan jagoe Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., University of Oklahoma, 1974 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in National Security Affairs from the Naval Postgraduate School June 1986 ABSTRACT In November of 1985. Ferdinand Marcos, President of the Republic of the Philippines, announced that he would hold a "snap" Presidential election. This election took place on 7 February, 1986, in a highly charged atmosphere of partisan politics marked by intimidation, widespread poll irregularities and intense domestic and foreign scrutiny. The United States official position remained fluid in an attempt to balance U.S. strategic and economic national interests with those of the Filipino people. The essential Philippine national interest at stake was the viability of the democratic process as an expression of the will of a free people. Following a hotly disputed count the incumbent President Marcos claimed victory, a move similarly taken by his opposition opponent, Mrs. Corazon Aquino. The resulting civil strife threatened peace in the Philippines and posed significant questions lor US. foreign policy, specifically, the relative priority of democratic values vis a vis strategic interests and the role of the United States in mitigating the rise of a communist insurgency there. This is a case study of the development of that election and tl*e role that the United States did and could have played in it. Additionally, it examines the national interests of both countries as expressed during and after the election. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 6 II. THE MARCOS ERA-FROM PROMISE TO TURMOIL ... .11 III. THE OPPOSITION SOLIDIFIES 27 IV. THE CAMPAIGN 38 V. THE ELECTION 70 VI. THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM 82 VII. THE REVOLUTION 121 VIII. EPILOGUE 136 BIBLIOGRAPHY 154 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 160 ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work would not have been possible had it not been for the openness, warmth, and frankness of the Filipino people that I had the good fortune to meet. I wish them every success in their efforts to achieve a new political and economic future. Above all, I am profoundly grateful to Professor Gaude A. Buss for his guidance, his unparalleled knowledge of Philippine affairs, and most of all for his friendship. He made this work a reality. I. I NTRODUCTION A new era in international relations was embarked upon at the end of World War II. Security arrangements that had been based upon preexisting economic, colonial, and social orders were no longer operative; in their place the United States sought to initiate a series of mutual defense treaties and arrangements that would take advantage of the undisputed leadership of the West, and the strength of the American economy. This transformation was particularly necessary in the Western Pacific because many of the small nations of the region were either newly independent or were in the process of becoming so as a result of the war's end. In that crucial period of time between the end of the Second World War and the beginning of the Korean War—and the Cold War—one of the nations that became independent was the Republic of the Philippines. As the only colony that the United States ever had, the Philippines held, and holds, a special place in our national conscience. When independence was declared on July, 4, 1946, the Philippines was envisioned as an Asian success story, steeped in democratic ideal and protected by the might of America. As the world changed, so changed both countries. Despite Philippine nationalism the special relationship that had eiisted before independence continued, and through successive administrations the United States continued to observe in the Philippines an aspiring student of American- style democracy. Elections were regularly held, and the 1935 Constitution remained in force. Combined Filipino and American action in 1 the 1950s led to the defeat of the Hukbaiahap threat , and once again the road to development appeared substantially clear. After the untimely death of President Ramon Magsaysay in 1957 in an airplane crash, the electoral process produced presidents of less popularity within policy centers in the United States; nevertheless the government of the Philippines remained essentially stable and decidedly anti-communist. Charges of corruption within the government tainted Presidents' Garcia and Macapagal, and in 1965 a candidate arose that caught not only the imagination of the Philippines, but also of knowledgeable Americans. He was Senator Ferdinand E. Marcos, and he brought with him his beautiful and disarming wife, Imelda. They were at ease in any social setting, and seemed precisely the breath of fresh and vibrant air that diplomatic circles needed. Both President Johnson and Secretary General Brezhnev fell to imelda's charms, and as President Marcos spoke of his country's problems and needs he was listened to both within his country and in economic centers around the world. His ardent stand against corruption, the traditional oligarchy, Philippine criminality and communism earned him the widespread support of American legislators and policy- makers. The deepening American involvement in South Vietnam led to intensification of efforts to avoid the loss of other peripheral Asian nations to communism, and to grateful appreciation of those allies supporting us in the war. The sending of the PHILCAG troops to Vietnam, with then- Major Fidel iOften used in it's abbreviated form, Huk, Hukbaiahap is itself an abbreviated form of the Tagalog phrase, Hukbong Bayan Laban sa Hapon, or People's Anti-Japanese Army. After 1946 it became the People s Liberation Army, and took up arms in association with the National Peasant Union, PKM, in revolt against landlord abuses and tenancy problems. It's leader, Luis Taruc, surrendered in May 1954 during the Magsaysay administration, and this marked the end of the movement's power. 8 Ramos second in command, went a long way in cementing U.S. support of President Marcos. In 1969 the Niion Doctrine was announced, and in the Philippines Marcos was reelected—the first Filipino president to achieve such status. During the ensuing two years conditions within the country deteriorated both economically and seemingly spiritually.