3 PRIMARY SCHOOLS Report Subm

AGENDA ITEM NO. 8

CABINET 6 MAY 2014

21st CENTURY SCHOOLS – FULL BUSINESS CASE FOR PHASE 1B – 3 PRIMARY SCHOOLS

Report Submitted by: Dermot McChrystal, Interim Head of Education Services Report Written by: John Tushingham, Head of Access, Engagement and Performance & Steve Tong, Project Manager

1. Areas Affected

1.1 Oakfield, Llantarnam, Cwmbran and Griffithstown areas of Torfaen.

2. Purpose of Report

2.1 To seek approval to submit the Full Business Case (FBC) to Welsh Government for Phase 1B of Torfaen‟s 21st Century Schools Programme which will see the replacement of Blenheim Road Community Primary School, Llantarnam Community Primary School and Ysgol Panteg.

3. Key Messages

3.1 The next stage of the process requires the submission and approval of the FBC, the main elements of which are detailing the procurement route and establishing the cost ceiling.

3.2 As with the Outline Business Case (OBC), the FBC has been prepared on the basis of all three schools being procured at the same time to achieve best economies of scale.

3.3 The revised cost of the 3 schools combined is to a ceiling funding limit of £20,500,000 which reflects the drive from Welsh Government to minimise new- build costs and the fact that 2 of the schools are 315 places now, not 420 places.

3.4 The procurement process will start following this report, with issue of the tender documents, but appointment of the contractor will not take place until after FBC approval and subject to a further cabinet report.

4. Background

4.1 Welsh Government has approved the projects to go forward to the FBC on the basis of the following sizes:

• Ysgol Panteg – 420 places • Llantarnam Community Primary School – 315 places • Blenheim Road Primary School - 315 places

4.2 The approved March 2014 cabinet report gave the go ahead for statutory closure consultations to commence in relation to the current Ysgol Panteg and Llantarnam Community Primary School sites, and informal consultation to be carried out in relation to Blenheim Road Community Primary School.

4.3 As noted in the March 14 cabinet report, the target delivery date has been revised to September 2016.

5. Issues and Findings

5.1 The approval of the OBC enables us to proceed with consultations and to look in more detail at the best available procurement routes for the revised target date of September 2016.

5.2 Submission and approval of the FBC will complete the Five Case model process for final funding approval by Welsh Government for the capital projects.

5.3 Changes from the OBC to the FBC are outlined in the following sections and include responses to feedback received by Welsh Government on the OBC and further information which is required for the FBC to satisfy the guidelines for completion.

5.4 The Strategic Case The overall strategy remains unchanged. Updated sections include: Key Stage core subject indicator data for Torfaen and national averages ICT strategy energy and emissions performance school design strategy a new outcomes/benefits table template from Department for Education & Skills, focusing on fewer, but SMARTer objectives revised risks, constraints and dependencies sections

5.5 The Economic Case The purpose of the economic case was to appraise the short listed options to determine the preferred option for each school. The preferred options of three 420 place primary schools was not supported by Welsh Government, but instead they have agreed to go forward with 420 places for Panteg, 315 places for Llantarnam and 315 places for Blenheim Road. A section at the end of the economic case has been added to reflect this decision.

Whist the case for 420 place schools in each location was not accepted, the council is still aiming to secure a flexible design approach that would allow further expansion of the two 315 place schools. The impact on the design of the schools procured would be to build the 315 place schools with common areas such as the hall, kitchen and toilets sized for a 420 place school. This is to mitigate the risk that currently unplanned but predicted, by virtue of their inclusion in the Local Development Plan, long term housing developments occur in those areas and demand exceeds capacity. The impact on cost of doing this is highlighted in the Commercial and Financial Cases.

5.6 The Commercial Case The Commercial Case has been updated to reflect: the procurement options considered and preferred route chosen which is the SEWSCAP framework (South East Wales Schools Capital Working Group), „Design and Build‟ involving a competition among 5 main pre- selected contractors. The preferred route will achieve a combination of best value for money and best delivery. the selection criteria by which the preferred contractor will be chosen that the procurement process will begin immediately after cabinet approval. the revised ceiling price for the 3 schools is £20,500,000, including professional fees. the price of £20,500,000 includes £739,000 for the extra space in common areas in the 315 place schools to future proof expansion to 420 places. Reference to and inclusion of an appendix focussing on Community Benefits – the „Value Wales Toolkit „

5.7 The Financial Case This now reflects that in capital terms, under the revised criteria, the costs of the 21st Century Schools Programme are to be shared 50:50 on each scheme by the council and Welsh Government and therefore now amount to a revised ceiling of £10,250,000 each in this instance. The funding source for the council‟s contribution is re-affirmed i.e. a combination of capital receipts, core capital, and prudential borrowing.

5.8 The Management Case This has been revised to: provide more detail for Welsh Government on how the project will be managed reflect the revised delivery programme for the projects for a new implementation date of September 2016 including capital and transition elements managed by Neighbourhood Services and the Education Service respectively.

5.9 The following table shows the outline milestone plan for the project going forward. Dates are indicative only to show the relative time periods and are subject to change.

Milestone Activity Date

Consultation Process 12 May to Statutory and informal consultations 23 June 14 Cabinet receives report on outcome of consultation and 8 July 14 agrees to publication of statutory notices If approved by Cabinet, the publication of statutory notices 8 September 14

(If not approved new or amended proposals would be required and would be subject to further approvals.) End of objection period 6 October 14 Final decision on proposals End October 14 Full Business Case Approval Write FBC complete Submit FBC (with pre-tender cost estimates) May 14 Anticipated approval of FBC to ceiling price by Welsh Government and issue of grant letter, which will be September 14 subject to Cabinet approving the closure proposals Design and Construction Out to tender, (Design and Build) June 14 Contractor appointment Sept/Oct 14 Planning Applications January 15 Planning Approval March 15 Start on site June 15 Completion date June 16 Client fit out July 16 Operational August 16

6. Consultation

6.1 Following approval of the March 14 cabinet report, consultation relating to these proposals is due to commence on 12th May 2014.

7. Policy Impact Assessment

7.1 A Policy Impact Assessment (PIA) screening tool is attached as Appendix 1. The impacts are predominantly positive.

In terms of the significant impacts:

1. The proposals will impact significantly in the communities served by the three schools.

2. The nature of the impact will be in the form of 21st Century Learning facilities and sufficient capacity to meet future demand.

3. Children and young people will benefit from the improved facilities but there will also be benefits, for example, in terms of improved energy efficiency of the buildings. The analysis of benefits is a theme that runs throughout the OBC and which will be reviewed again in the FBC.

A range of activity will be necessary to secure and enhance the positive impacts and reduce the negative impacts, not least where they represent a risk to the project.

8. Risks

8.1 The risk register has been updated in the FBC.

8.2 Ultimately, if the new build proposals do not proceed there is serious risk of school building failure in the two English medium schools and a shortage of Welsh medium primary provision.

8.3 There is a risk that Welsh Government will not approve match funding for the additional £739,000 to allow for future expansion of the 315 place schools. If this happens, Cabinet will be advised and their view sort on actions to be taken, i.e. continue with full funding provided by the Council, or remove the “future expansion” proposals to retain the 50:50 funding profile with Welsh Government.

9. Action to be taken following decision

9.1 Submission of the FBC to Welsh Government.

9.2 Commencement of procurement process with issue of tender documents.

10. Measures of success

10.1 The following Corporate Plan priorities will be progressed as a result of the proposals in this report:

Safeguarding children, especially those with additional educational needs and supporting positive attitudes towards education. Supporting families and children living in poverty to get through recession. Using resources wisely, to include maintaining the highway infrastructure and reducing energy consumption and waste.

Progress will be in the form of delivery against the revised outcomes/benefits table of investment objectives listed in the FBC.

11. Recommendations

11.1 That cabinet gives approval to submit the Full Business Case for the replacement schools within a revised funding ceiling of £20,500,000 which includes the future proofing of the 315 place schools for expansion up to 420 place schools.

Appendices 1. Policy Impact Assessment. 2. Full Business Case

Background Note: Members of the public are entitled, under the Local Papers Government Act 1972, to inspect background papers to reports. The following is a list of the background papers used in the production of this report.

Cabinet Report (April 2013) – 21st Century Schools, Outline Business Case Cabinet Report (March 2014) - 21st CENTURY SCHOOLS – NEW SCHOOLS & ASSOCIATED SCHOOL CLOSURE PROPOSALS

For a copy of the background papers or for further information about this report, please contact: Steve Tong, Project Manager, Education Service at [email protected] or on 01495 766945

Appendix 1 - Policy Impact Assessment Screening Matrix

Project/Activity 21st Century Schools – New Schools & Associated School Closure Proposals Appraiser: S. Tong Project Manager: Steve Tong Date: March 2014

Type of Significance

impact of impact Positive + High H Theme Criteria Negative – Notes None NA Low L Legislation NA Finance - H Finances agreed with Education Resource Communication NA and Corporate Finance Implications Employees + H Partnership/Collaboration NA Physical Health + L Health Mental Health NA Healthy Lifestyles + L Educational Attainment + H 21st Century Learning Facilities Education Basic Skills + H Continuous Learning + H Good Quality Housing NA Housing Homelessness NA Affordable Housing NA Poverty + L Longer term benefit from better Employment + L education Economy Business NA Community Enterprise NA Age NA Disability + H Modern inclusive faciltites Gender NA Marriage & Civil Partnership NA

Pregnancy & Maternity NA

Race NA Equality Religion & Belief NA Sexual Orientation NA Welsh Language + More Welsh medium primary Group not achieving equality of places NA service Human Rights NA Crime + L Modern buildings – easier to Safer Anti Social Behaviour NA secure and safer environments Communities Safety of area or people + H Public NA Car journeys should be reduced Transport Private + L (across whole programme) Walking / Cycling + L Local Distinction & Heritage NA Built Waste & Recycling NA Environment Energy / Water Efficiency + H More energy efficient buildings Pollution Air / Water / Ground NA Climate Change + H More energy efficient buildings Natural Animal / Plant Species NA Environment Habitat / Landscape NA

Full Business Case

Band A Phase 1B Projects

May 2014

STRUCTURE AND CONTENT OF THE DOCUMENT ...... 5 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 6 1.1 Introduction ...... 6 1.2 Strategic Case ...... 6 1.3 Economic Case ...... 8 1.3.1 Economic Case Blenheim Road ...... 9 1.3.2 Economic Case Ysgol Panteg ...... 11 1.3.3 Economic Case Llantarnam Primary ...... 13 1.4 Commercial Case ...... 15 1.5 Financial Case...... 18 1.6 Management Case ...... 18 1.7 Recommendation ...... 21 2. THE STRATEGIC CASE ...... 22 2.1 Organisational overview ...... 22 2.1.1 Geography and school age population ...... 22 2.1.2 Current education and learning provision in Torfaen...... 22 2.1.3 Background to previous investment in the estate ...... 23 2.2 Existing situation ...... 25 2.2.1 Primary Schools ...... 25 2.2.2 Croesyceiliog Cluster ...... 25 2.2.3 Llantarnam Cluster ...... 26 2.2.4 Fairwater Cluster ...... 26 2.2.5 Abersychan Cluster ...... 27 2.2.6 West Monmouth Cluster ...... 28 2.2.7 Welsh Medium Cluster ...... 29 2.2.8 Nursery Provision ...... 29 2.2.9 Roman Catholic Primary Cluster ...... 29 2.2.10 Church in Wales Primary Cluster ...... 30 2.2.11 Educational Outcomes ...... 30 2.3 Investment Objectives ...... 31 2.3.1 Welsh Government Investment Objectives ...... 32 2.3.2 TCBC Investment Objectives ...... 32 2.3.3 Strategic Approach ...... 33 2.3.4 Revised Guidance and Revised Submission ...... 33 2.3.5 Post-16 Transformation ...... 34 2.3.6 Investment Objectives ...... 35 2.4 Business Needs and proposed solutions ...... 38 2.4.1 Criteria 1: ...... 38 2.4.2 Criteria 2: ...... 39 2.4.3 Criteria 3: ...... 41 2.4.4 Criteria 4: ...... 42 2.4.5 Criteria 5: ...... 44 2.4.6 Standardised School Design ...... 44 2.5 21st Century Schools Programme Bands A to D ...... 48 2.5.1 Band A (2014-2019) ...... 49 2.5.2 Band B (2020-2022) ...... 49 2.5.3 Band C (2023-2025) ...... 50 2.5.4 Band D (2026-2028) ...... 50 2.5.5 Amended Band A Priorities ...... 50 2.5.6 Existing Situation versus Business Need for Band A - Phase 1B ...... 52 2.6 Benefits, risks, dependencies and constraints ...... 52 2.6.1 Main benefits criteria ...... 52 2.6.2 Risks ...... 57

2.6.3 Constraints ...... 60 2.6.4 Dependencies ...... 61 3 THE ECONOMIC CASE ...... 62 3.1 Introduction ...... 62 3.2 Critical Success Factors ...... 62 3.3 Options and Appraisal – Blenheim Road / Fairwater Cluster ...... 63 3.3.1 Long List - Blenheim Road / Fairwater Cluster ...... 63 3.3.2 Short Listed Options - Blenheim Road / Fairwater Cluster ...... 65 3.3.3 Benefits Appraisal - Blenheim Road / Fairwater Cluster ...... 70 3.3.4 Critical Success Factors Appraisal – Blenheim Road ...... 71 3.3.5 Net present cost analysis – Blenheim Road ...... 71 3.3.6 Sensitivity analysis – Blenheim Road ...... 72 3.4 Risk appraisal – Blenheim Road ...... 73 3.4.1 Methodology – Blenheim Road ...... 73 3.4.2 Risk scores – Blenheim Road ...... 73 3.4.3 Risk Mitigation Activities – Blenheim Road ...... 76 3.4.4 Risk summary – Blenheim Road ...... 77 3.5 The Preferred Option – Blenheim Road ...... 77 3.5.1 Results – Blenheim Road ...... 77 3.5.2 Conclusion – Blenheim Road ...... 79 3.6 Options and Appraisal – Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium Cluster ...... 80 3.6.1 Long List – Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium cluster ...... 80 3.6.3 Short Listed Options - Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium cluster ...... 83 3.6.4 Benefits Appraisal - Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium cluster ...... 87 3.6.5 Critical Success Factors Appraisal – Ysgol Panteg ...... 88 3.6.6 Net present cost analysis – Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium Cluster ...... 88 3.6.7 Sensitivity analysis – Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium Cluster ...... 89 3.7 Risk appraisal – Ysgol Panteg ...... 90 3.7.1 Methodology – Ysgol Panteg ...... 90 3.7.2 Risk scores – Ysgol Panteg ...... 90 3.7.3 Risk Mitigation Activities – Ysgol Panteg ...... 93 3.7.4 Risk summary – Ysgol Panteg ...... 94 3.8 The Preferred Option – Ysgol Panteg ...... 94 3.8.1 Results – Ysgol Panteg ...... 94 3.8.2 Conclusion – Ysgol Panteg ...... 96 3.9 Options and Appraisal – Llantarnam Primary / Llantarnam Cluster ...... 96 3.9.1 Long List – Llantarnam Primary / Llantarnam Cluster ...... 96 3.9.2 Short Listed Options – Llantarnam Primary / Llantarnam Cluster ...... 99 3.9.3 Benefits Appraisal – Llantarnam Primary / Llantarnam Cluster ...... 103 3.9.4 Critical Success Factors Appraisal – Llantarnam Primary ...... 104 3.9.5 Net present cost analysis – Llantarnam Primary ...... 104 3.9.6 Sensitivity analysis – Llantarnam Primary ...... 105 3.10 Risk appraisal – Llantarnam Primary ...... 106 3.10.1 Methodology – Llantarnam Primary ...... 106 3.10.2 Risk scores – Llantarnam Primary...... 106 3.10.3 Risk Mitigation Activities – Llantarnam Primary ...... 109 3.10.4 Risk summary – Llantarnam Primary ...... 110 3.11 The Preferred Option – Llantarnam Primary ...... 111 3.11.1 Results – Llantarnam Primary ...... 111 3.11.2 Conclusion – Llantarnam Primary ...... 112 4. THE COMMERCIAL CASE ...... 113 4.1 Introduction ...... 113 4.2 Required services ...... 113

4.2.1 Introduction ...... 113 4.2.2 Standardised school design ...... 113 4.3 The Procurement Process ...... 114 4.3.1 Procurement Options ...... 114 4.3.2 Short List of Contractors ...... 115 4.3.3 Selection Criteria ...... 115 4.3.4 SEWSCAP ...... 115 4.3.5 Community Benefits ...... 116 4.4 Agreed risk transfer ...... 117 4.5 Proposed charging mechanisms ...... 118 4.6 Proposed contract lengths ...... 118 4.7 Proposed key contractual clauses ...... 118 4.8 Personnel implications (including TUPE) ...... 118 4.9 Procurement strategy and implementation timescales ...... 119 4.10 FRS 5 accountancy treatment ...... 119 5. THE FINANCIAL CASE ...... 120 5.1 Introduction ...... 120 5.2 Impact on the organisation‘s income and expenditure account ...... 120 5.3 Impact on the balance sheet ...... 120 5.4 Overall affordability ...... 122 6. THE MANAGEMENT CASE ...... 123 6.1 Introduction ...... 123 6.2 Programme Management Arrangements ...... 123 6.3 Project Management Arrangements ...... 124 6.3.1 Education Capital Project Board Structure ...... 124 6.3.2 Project Management Key Roles and Responsibilities...... 125 6.3.3 Transition Plan ...... 125 6.3.4 Programme and Project Management Reporting Structure Diagram .... 126 6.4 Project plan ...... 127 6.5 Use of special advisers ...... 128 6.6 Arrangements for change and contract management ...... 128 6.7 Arrangements for benefits realisation ...... 128 6.8 Arrangements for risk management ...... 129 6.9 Arrangements for post project evaluation ...... 129 6.10 Gateway Reviews ...... 129 6.11 Contingency plans ...... 130 APPENDIX A – UPDATED NET PRESENT COST ANALYSIS ...... 131 APPENDIX B – TEAM EXPERIENCE ...... 132 APPENDIX C – TRANSITION PLAN TEMPLATE ...... 134 APPENDIX D – BENEFITS REGISTER ...... 135 APPENDIX E – RISK REGISTER ...... 136

Structure and content of the document

This document has been prepared using the agreed standards and format for business cases, as set out by HM Treasury and the Welsh Government. The format is the Five Case Model, which comprises the following key components:

the strategic case section. This sets out the strategic context and the case for change, together with the supporting investment objectives for the scheme.

the economic case section. This demonstrates that the organisation has selected a preferred way forward, which best meets the existing and future needs of the service and is likely to optimise value for money (VFM).

the commercial case section. This outlines what any potential deal might look like.

the financial case section. This highlights likely funding and affordability issues and the potential balance sheet treatment of the scheme.

the management case section. This demonstrates that the scheme is achievable and can be delivered successfully in accordance with accepted best practice.

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Introduction

This FBC seeks Welsh Government grant approval of a ceiling amount of £10,250,000 to invest in Phase 1B, Band A, of Torfaen‘s 21st Century School Programme. It will be match funded by Torfaen County Borough Council in a ratio of 50:50, making the total investment in the scheme £20,500,000. It will fund the design and construction of the following schools:

1 new 420 place Welsh medium primary school, Ysgol Panteg 2 new 315 place English medium primary schools, Blenheim Road and Llantarnam

This set of projects in Phase 1B will realise the following:

Urgently needed Welsh Medium expansion to meet the predicted demand Replacement of 1 category D condition school Replacement of 1 category C/D condition school Adoption of a standardised design and build approach to achieve economies of scale Effective management of the overall level of surplus places in Torfaen (around 10%) consistent with the expectations of Welsh Government.

In order to achieve the milestone dates set out in the management case, approval of the FBC and receipt of the grant letter from Welsh Government is required by September 2014.

1.2 Strategic Case

Investment Objectives The strategic drivers for this set of projects come from the programme investment objectives of the 21st Century Schools Programme and vision for schools in Torfaen. These are:

To develop a sustainable education system with all schools (equality) meeting national building standards and reducing the recurrent costs and carbon footprint.

To achieve inspirational settings appropriate for new educational developments and new ICT- rich technologies and adaptable to cater for the changing needs of the future.

To provide an outstanding resource for the whole community where school facilities can be shared and which can offer a range of co-located facilities. e.g. Childcare, Health and Social Care, Adult Education, Youth and Play services.

These have been developed into SMART format in the body of the document.

Revised Guidance The strategy and proposed solutions were adapted to take account of the revised guidelines received from Welsh Government in October 2011, which included: The level of match funding required by the Council increased from 30% to 50%. The poorest condition of the estate to be prioritised Surplus capacity is the key indicator Running efficiencies are to be made No or low cost options to be brought forward Funding of Band A delayed from 2012 to 2014 and extended from 3 to 6 years (at the time of writing, WG is currently reviewing the possibility of ending Band A by 2018/19)

Existing Situation versus Business Need Current education and learning provision in Torfaen comprises: 7 secondary schools 28 primary schools: o 2 English medium (11-16) LA schools o 20 English Medium LA schools o 3 English medium (11-18) LA schools o 3 Welsh Medium LA schools o 1 Welsh medium (11-18) LA school o 3 Roman Catholic schools o 1 Roman Catholic (11-18) school o 2 Church in Wales schools

1 stand-alone LA infant school 1 LA special school (3-19)

2 stand-alone LA maintained nursery schools and 16 private or voluntary nurseries 1 LA pupil referral unit for KS 3 and 4 pupils There is a range of provision developed for meeting students‘ additional learning needs, spread across schools in the borough. Torfaen Education Service also works in partnership with the Coleg Gwent, The University of Wales, Private Nursery Providers, Work-based learning providers, Careers Wales Gwent and the newly formed Education Achievement Service.

Torfaen inherited an ageing building stock on Local Government re-organisation with relatively little capital investment in education in the intervening years. This resulted in a significant backlog in maintenance and repair. Since then however with limited resources, Torfaen has made good progress, taking difficult decisions about school re-organisation and invested in technology for the future. School reorganisation activities to date (including the current planned no/low cost closure proposals) combined with a short term projected birth rate increase, 5 year primary surplus places forecast has dropped from 18% to 10% overall in recent years. However, the majority of the remainder of its buildings are still in such a poor condition, that if improvements are not made, there is a high risk of service failure throughout the borough. There is also a significant maintenance backlog across the primary school estate. The following table categorises the building condition of primary schools now versus the business need and where they aim to be at the end of the 21st Century Schools investment programme:

Primary Schools - Condition Condition Grade Before (Current Situation) After (Business Need) A 3 9 A/B to B 8 13 B/C to C 12 0 C/D to D 7 0

1.3 Economic Case

Since the commencement of the SOP, long lists and short lists have been developed, reviewed and revisited and the following projects were identified as the primary school priorities for Band A:

Blenheim Road Primary School, condition grade D - Either needs replacing or alternative places need to be established elsewhere in the cluster. Llantarnam Primary School, condition grade D - Either needs replacing or alternative places need to be established elsewhere in the cluster.

Welsh Medium Primary School capacity – Additional places required to meet current projected shortfall in places of 150 by 2016.

1.3.1 Economic Case Blenheim Road

The long list of options considered was as follows:

Options for Fairwater Cluster Finding

1.0 Scope

‗Do Nothing‘ – Leave the estate as it is Discounted - would fail to hit any objectives ‗Minimum‘ – Rebuild or refurbish some Possible, affordable, but may not meet many objectives schools ‗Intermediate‘ – Rebuild or refurbish Possible, may be affordable and would meet many most schools objectives. ‗Maximum‘ – Rebuild all schools Discounted – unaffordable under revised criteria

2.0 Service solutions

Option 1 - Do Nothing Discounted - does not address condition. Goes forward for baseline comparison purposes only. Option 2 - Maintain current no. of Preferred. Previously discounted under original SOP, but schools on current sites keeping surplus places now needed due to future planned housing existing capacities. development. Overall surplus places target is now being met across the whole TCBC estate. Previously downgraded to major remodel/refurb, but may still be achievable as a new build and subject to further analysis. Option 3 - Maintain current no. of Possible. schools on current sites adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs Option 4 – Maintain current no. of Discounted. Unaffordable for revised criteria. schools, adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs and co-located on the comp site Option 5 – Reduce Primaries from 3 to Discounted. Unaffordable for revised criteria. 2 on current sites adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs Option 6 – Reduce Primaries from 3 to Discounted. Unaffordable for revised criteria and long 2 adjusting capacities to meet timescale would mean service failure. catchment needs and co-located on

the comp site

3.0 Service delivery

3.1 In-house Preferred 3.2 Outsource Discounted 3.3 Strategic partnership Discounted

4.0 Implementation

4.2 Big bang Discounted - unaffordable 4.3 Phased Preferred – investment in cluster phase across several bands

5.0 Funding

5.1 Private Funding Discounted 5.2 Public Funding Preferred

The results of the investment appraisal of the short list were as follows:

Option 2a Option 2b Option 3 Option 1 Evaluation Results Refurb New Refurb Do Nothing Blenheim 420 Blenheim 420 Blenheim 315

Capital Cost 1st 3rd 4th 2nd

Non-cash Benefits 4th = 2nd 1st = 2nd

Cash Benefits 4th =1st =1st =1st

Critical Success Factors 4th 2nd 1st 3rd

NPC 1st 3rd 4th 2nd

Risk appraisal 4th = 1st =1st 3rd

Overall ranking 4th 2nd 1st 3rd

Conclusion The preferred option from the OBC appraisal above was Option 2b, new build replacement of Blenheim Road Primary School, keeping capacity the same at 420. Although it had the highest NPC, it scored 1st in terms of derived benefits, was the option with the joint lowest risk score and was affordable within the Band A set of projects.

However, following the OBC submission, Welsh Government did not feel that the case for a new 420 place school was justified as it does not want to sustain a potential increase in surplus places, compared to a reduction in surplus places in this cluster that a 315 place school would achieve. Therefore TCBC has agreed to amend the final chosen option to a new build 315 place school. It will still be of a standardised design, similar to the other schools being procured following this FBC approval, but be of a design layout that will enable it to be extended economically in the future, should demand from as yet unconfirmed housing developments in the Local Development Plan dictate. This is the solution going forward for procurement in the Commercial Case.

1.3.2 Economic Case Ysgol Panteg

The long list of options considered was as follows:

Options for Welsh Medium cluster Finding

1.0 Scope

2.0 Service solutions

Option 1 - Do Nothing Discounted - does not address condition. Goes forward for baseline comparison purposes only. Option 2 - Maintain current number of Possible - see new hybrids 7 and 8. schools and increase from 3 to 4/5 should demand continue to rise. Option 3 - Maintain current no. of Discounted – downgraded due to the access issues in schools and increase from 3 to 4/5 Trevethin / Penygarn area. should demand continue to rise and on a co-located 3-18 provision Option 4 - Maintain current no. of Discounted - other plans for George Street. schools and increase from 3 to 4/5 should demand continue to rise. Option 5 - Reduce the current number Discounted - need to keep Bryn Onnen open in Band A to of schools to 2 but increase to 3/4 meet demand. should demand continue to rise

Option 6 - Reduce the current number Possible - see new hybrids 7 and 8. of schools to 2 but increase to 3/4 should demand continue to rise Option 7 - New hybrid. Maintain Preferred current number of schools and increase capacity. Option 8 - New hybrid. Maintain Possible current number of schools and increase capacity further.

3.0 Service delivery

3.1 In-house Preferred 3.2 Outsource Discounted 3.3 Strategic partnership Discounted

4.0 Implementation

4.2 Big bang Discounted - unaffordable 4.3 Phased Preferred – investment in cluster phased across several bands

5.0 Funding

5.1 Private Funding Discounted 5.2 Public Funding Preferred

The results of the investment appraisal of the short list were as follows:

Option 1 Option 7 Option 8 Evaluation Results Do Nothing New Panteg 420 New Panteg 525

Capital Cost 1st 2nd 3rd

Non-cash Benefits 3rd 1st marginal 2nd marginal

Cash Benefits 3rd =1st =1st

Critical Success Factors 3rd 1st 2nd

NPC 1st 2nd 3rd

Risk appraisal 3rd 1st 2nd

Overall ranking 3rd 1st 2nd

Conclusion The preferred option from the OBC appraisal above was Option 7, new build of Ysgol Panteg on the new site, increasing capacity from 157 to 420 places. Although its NPC is higher than the Do Nothing option, it scores highest in terms of derived benefits, is the option with the lowest risk score and is affordable within Band A set of projects. Following the OBC submission, Welsh Government has confirmed it is in agreement that the case has been made for the new build 420 place school. This is the solution going forward for procurement in the Commercial Case.

1.3.3 Economic Case Llantarnam Primary

The long list of options considered was as follows:

Options for Llantarnam Cluster Finding

1.0 Scope

2.0 Service solutions

Option 1 - Do Nothing Discounted - does not address condition. Goes forward for baseline comparison purposes only. Option 2 - Maintain current number of Discounted - does not address surplus places or raise schools on current sites, keeping capital existing capacities Option 3 - Maintain current number of Discounted - does not address surplus places or raise schools on current sites, adjusting capital capacities to meet catchment needs Option 4 - Reduce Primaries from 4 to Discounted - does not raise sufficient capital to make 3 on current sites, adjusting capacities whole programme affordable to meet catchment needs Option 5 – Reduce Primaries from 4 to Preferred - split into 2 further options (Options 6 & 7) 3, adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs and co-locate a primary on the comp site

Option 6 - Reduce Primaries from 4 to Possible 3 but increasing capacity to meet catchment needs and co-locate a primary on the comp site Option 7 - Reduce Primaries from 4 to Preferred 3 increasing capacities to meet future demand and co-locate a primary on the comp site

3.0 Service delivery

3.1 In-house Preferred 3.2 Outsource Discounted 3.3 Strategic partnership Discounted

4.0 Implementation

4.2 Big bang Discounted - unaffordable 4.3 Phased Preferred – investment in cluster phase across several bands

5.0 Funding

5.1 Private Funding Discounted 5.2 Public Funding Preferred

The results of the investment appraisal of the short list were as follows:

Option 6 Option 7 Option 1 Evaluation Results New Build Llantarnam New Build Llantarnam Do Nothing 315 place 420 place

Capital Cost 1st 2nd 3rd

Non-cash Benefits 3rd 2nd 1st

Cash Benefits 3rd =1st =1st

Critical Success Factors 3rd 2nd 1st

NPC 1st 2nd 3rd

Risk appraisal 3rd 2nd 1st

Overall ranking 3rd 2nd 1st

Conclusion The preferred option from the OBC appraisal above was Option 7, new build Llantarnam Primary School on the Secondary school site, increasing capacity to 420. Although it had the highest NPC, it scored highest in terms of derived benefits, was the option with the lowest risk score and is affordable within the Band A set of projects. However, following the OBC submission, Welsh Government did not feel that the case for a new 420 place school was justified as it does not want to sustain a substantial potential increase in surplus places, compared to a moderate increase in surplus places in this cluster that a 315 place school would achieve. Therefore TCBC has agreed to amend the final chosen option to a new build 315 place school. It will still be of a standardised design, similar to the other schools being procured following this FBC approval, but be of a design layout that will enable it to be extended economically in the future, should demand from as yet unconfirmed housing developments in the Local Development Plan dictate. This is the solution going forward for procurement in the Commercial Case.

1.4 Commercial Case

The preferred options for the investment will require the procurement of full design and construction services including project management to deliver the following: New 315 place Blenheim Road Primary School on existing site. New 420 place Ysgol Panteg Primary School on a new site in the Griffithstown area. New 315 place Llantarnam Primary School on Llantarnam Secondary School site.

Standardised school design Torfaen Education Capital Projects Team in collaboration with the council‘s Technical Services Team has decided to adopt a standardised school design approach for this set of 3 builds. As such a common school design concept will be sought through competitive tendering. The benefit of this approach is that savings can be made by using a standardised school design with regard to consultants‘ fees, materials and construction costs when the 3 schools are procured at the same time.

A cost planning exercise completed during the production of the FBC has confirmed that the 3 new schools can be delivered for a ceiling price of £20.5M.

As explained in the Strategic Case, the design brief for the school is to have a common layout for the 420 and 315 places schools to allow for possible later expansion of the 315 place school, should demand increase and funding be available. The standardised school design could also be used in future projects in Bands B, C and D.

Procurement The procurement options considered were: OJEU notified tender SCAPE SEWSCAP Fully designed scheme SEWSCAP Design & Build

The advantages and disadvantages of using each one are:

Procurement Route Advantages Disadvantages OJEU Breadth of design options to select Lengthy process in terms of time. from is wide. Resource intensive in terms of Officer Widest possible competition. time and Contractor time in submitting expressions of interest. Possibility of unsuitable tenderers being allowed to tender. SCAPE Speed of delivery. Single tenderer. Contractor engagement at the earliest Value for money not tested in possible juncture competition Proven model. SEWSCAP Design bespoke to Torfaen Cost of developing the design with Fully designed External Consultants. scheme Less collaborative approach to construction due to not engaging Contractor early in the process. More adversarial form of contracting. SEWSCAP OJEU process undertaken when The opportunity to tender is limited to Design and Build compiling the framework list of those contractors on the framework list. Contractors originally. Less opportunity to create a bespoke Competent Contractors listed. design if selecting a standardised model. Tried and tested processes of appointment. Standardised design options available with the Contractors. Economies to be realised on consultant costs due to standardised design models Early engagement of the Contractor.

We have decided to use the SEWSCAP framework procurement process, for a Design and Build scheme. The SEWSCAP framework is set out in contractor lots based on the value of the contract. This project falls into the lot comprising the following contractors: Carillion Construction Ltd JB Leadbitter & Co Ltd Laing O'Rourke Construction Ltd Morgan Sindall Plc Willmott Dixon Construction Ltd

The Preferred Supplier will be selected on a set of weighted criteria, set out in the tender document. The tender period will be during June and July 2014. The timetable for the procurement process is explained in the Management Case.

Community Benefits This project will promote community participation through the use of localised labour, local tradesmen, local SMEs and locally sourced materials. Torfaen has a good track record of deriving community benefits over the last 8 years and 15 construction projects:

Risk Transfer Under the Framework Agreements for Capital Projects, risks will be passed to the party deemed most appropriate to manage the risk.

Charging mechanisms Torfaen CBC will make payments with respect to the capital works in accordance with their Standing Orders and Financial Instructions. Contractual payments will accord with contract conditions, with monthly valuations being paid to the contractor. Assessment of final account payment will be subject to review by and agreement of TCBC Neighbourhood Services. Overall technical control of the schemes will be reviewed by the Authority‘s own technical team in liaison with the Framework Contractor‘s team.

Contract lengths Construction durations are likely to be around 52 weeks.

Key contractual clauses These will be as documented in the conditions of contract of the relevant form of contract.

Accountancy treatment FRS 5 shall be used where applicable.

1.5 Financial Case

The financial implications of this procurement are as follows:

Financial expenditure Summary of financial appraisal: Years, years 2019 to 2037 repeat as year 2018 Combined project costs of all 3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 schools Total Cost £m £m £m £m £m £m

Preferred Choice Capital costs 20.500 0.075 0.990 13.606 5.384 0.445 0.000 Revenue costs 48.738 1.812 1.812 1.812 1.953 1.969 1.969 Total 69.238 1.887 4.614 17.230 9.290 4.383 3.938

Funded by: Existing Revenue 45.300 1.812 1.812 1.812 1.812 1.812 1.812 Additional Revenue 3.438 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.141 0.157 0.157 Additional LA Capital Funding 10.250 0.075 0.495 6.803 2.692 0.185 0.000 Additional WG Capital Funding 10.250 0.000 0.495 6.803 2.692 0.260 0.000 Total 69.238 1.887 2.802 15.418 7.337 2.414 1.969

Overall affordability and balance sheet treatment The balance sheets of Torfaen CBC will be adjusted accordingly in respect of the following assets: New Blenheim Road Primary School New Ysgol Panteg New Llantarnam Primary School

In capital terms alone, the proposed cost of the chosen solution is £20,500,000. The cost of the project is to be shared 50/50. The funding split for these 3 schools is therefore now WG £10,250,000 and TCBC £10,250,000. This represents a reduction overall from the OBC of £1,100,000. TCBC sources of capital funding are evidenced in the body of the financial case.

1.6 Management Case

Programme Management Arrangements All major capital projects in Torfaen CBC are overseen by the monthly Capital Programme Board. The Capital Programme Board: considers the development of the Council‘s capital programme and strategy including 21st Century Schools Programme ensures all schemes developed for member approval are affordable reviews the PIF‘s (grant application proposals) from a financial perspective oversees asset management planning considers wider funding issues and opportunities

develops and oversees a robust mechanism for capital receipts realization considers all our major projects from all aspects, i.e. all issues and risks, not just financial considers all other non-major projects but from a financial perspective. Membership of the Capital Programme Board comprises heads of services of the council and is chaired by the Assistant Chief Executive, Resources.

Project Management Arrangements At the service level, the Education Service operates a fortnightly Education Capital Project Board to oversee its major capital projects chaired by the Head of Access, Engagement and Performance. The Project Manager is responsible for reporting the status of the project and gaining any approvals to proceed at this meeting from the Project Executive. The board collectively performs the role of Project Assurance. The board members are: Head of Access, Engagement and Performance Client Project Managers Head of Technical Services Construction Group Leader Principal Officer, Forward Planning Strategic Capital Projects Manager Lead Finance Officer Capital

The Construction Project Manager, Neighbourhood Services manages the main contractor delivering the construction project and the Neighbourhood Services Team to deliver the capital build aspect of the project. They liaise with the Client Project Manager and reports to the Construction Group Leader.

The Client Project Manager, Education Service represents the client (Education Service) throughout the design, construction, handover and post completion phases of the project. They manage the Client Fit-out part of the project, including IT 2nd Fix and loose furniture. They also manage the Transition Group, a large stakeholder group whose main purpose is to ensure smooth transition from the existing arrangements to the new school. They report to the Project Executive and the Education Capital Project Board and work closely with Construction Project Manager in Neighbourhood Services.

Project plan

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Milestone Activity Date

Consultation Process

12 May to Statutory and informal consultations 23 June 14 Cabinet receives report on outcome of consultation and agrees to publication 8 July 14 of statutory notices If approved by Cabinet, the publication of statutory notices (If not approved new or amended proposals would be required and would be 8 September 14 subject to further approvals.)

End of objection period 6 October 14

Final decision on proposals End October 14

Full Business Case Approval

Write FBC complete

Submit FBC with ceiling price May 14

Anticipated approval of FBC to ceiling price by Welsh Government and issue September 14 of grant letter, which will be subject to Cabinet approving the closure proposals

Design and Construction

Out to tender, (Design and Build) June 14

Contractor appointment Sept/Oct 14

Planning Applications January 15

Planning Approval March 15

Start on site June 15

Completion date June 16

Client fit out July 16

Operational August 16

Post Project review – Construction (PER) October 17

Post Benefits Realisation Evaluation – Education (PIR) October 17

The projects will be run along PRINCE2 guidelines, including effective change management, benefits monitoring, risk management, post project evaluation and Gateway Reviews.

1.7 Recommendation

We recommend that: this Full Business Case is approved a Grant Letter is issued to Torfaen CBC no later than September 2014 with a commitment of a ceiling figure of £10,250,000 of Welsh Government capital funding the Council funding in 2013/14 is counted towards its 50% contribution and it is requested that this is recognised in the Grant Letter when issued. the project can now proceed to the delivery phase.

2. The Strategic Case

The strategy explained in this section summarises issues relating to the overall 21st Century School Programme, spanning all bands (A-D) and the whole education estate. This is because any issues or changes relating to one school can have a knock on effect to other schools in its own and neighbouring clusters. It then goes into more detail on the projects relating to Band A and then the priorities for initial investment in this specific FBC.

The FBC addresses issues raised by DfES and the Capital Panel following the OBC submission. Relating to the Strategic Case, this includes: Investment objectives – a review of ‗programme level‘ and ‗sub-objectives‘ (simplification and a focus on SMART) Further development of the benefits strategy

2.1 Organisational overview

2.1.1 Geography and school age population

Torfaen emerged in 1996 as one of the new unitary authorities that succeeded Gwent County Council. Torfaen is a small, compact and densely populated unitary authority made up of 3 core large communities – Cwmbran, Pontypool, and Blaenavon. However, the communities that make up Torfaen have a strong sense of community and the area can be seen as a series of linked networked villages.

The authority includes some of the most socio economically deprived wards in Wales in Trevethin and Thornhill. Whilst, overall, Torfaen is an ‗average‘ socio-economic community within Wales, there are some marked variations across the borough.

Figures from the school level census in January 2013 show that there are 12,179 pupils of compulsory school age in schools in Torfaen. From the same census, the numbers of pupils claiming Free School Meals in primary schools in Torfaen is 22%, and in secondary schools is 17.5%.

2.1.2 Current education and learning provision in Torfaen.

In Torfaen there are currently: 7 secondary schools: o 2 English medium (11-16) LA schools o 3 English medium (11-18) LA schools o 1 Welsh medium (11-18) LA school o 1 Roman Catholic (11-18) school

28 primary schools: o 20 English Medium LA schools o 3 Welsh Medium LA schools o 3 Roman Catholic schools o 2 Church in Wales schools 1 stand-alone LA infant school 1 LA special school (3-19) 2 stand-alone LA maintained nursery schools and 16 private or voluntary nurseries 1 LA pupil referral unit for KS 3 and 4 pupils

There is a range of provision developed for meeting students‘ additional learning needs: The Pupil Referral Unit which provides in-house support, outreach support and alternative tuition services Abersychan Secondary MLD Special Needs Resource Base (SNRB) Fairwater High Autistic Spectrum Disorder SNRB (regional provision) Llantarnam Comprehensive Hearing Impairment SNRB (Regional) Pontnewydd Primary MLD SNRB (KS2) Griffithstown Primary SNRB (KS2) Pontymoile Primary ASD Base Nant Celyn Primary Hearing Impairment SNRB (Regional)

Torfaen Education Service also works in partnership with the following bodies: Coleg Gwent, Pontypool and Crosskeys FE campuses - serving learners from the two 11-16 schools in the north of Torfaen as well as some learners from the other schools, located in the south. The University of Wales, Newport which is based on two main campuses - one in Newport‘s city centre and the other at Caerleon, a few miles from the city centre. Private Nursery Providers Work-based learning providers - a number of which operate in the area including Torfaen Training. Careers Wales Gwent Education Achievement Service.

2.1.3 Background to previous investment in the estate

Torfaen inherited an ageing building stock on Local Government re-organisation with relatively little capital investment in education in the intervening years. This resulted in a significant backlog in maintenance and repair. No major school re-organisation had been carried out and Torfaen had the highest level of primary surplus places in Wales forecast for 2008. There was limited core capital

available for education and the schools lacked modern technology to engage learners and enhance the learning experience. Since then, Torfaen has made much progress, taking difficult decisions about school re-organisation and also investing in technology for the future.

The following changes have been implemented: School closures (one 11-16 secondary school, one primary school) Junior and Infant School amalgamations (14 separate ones into 7 primary schools) A new R.C. Primary School opened replacing 2 others at a cost of c. £4m. Technology rich environments have been created at 6 schools at a cost of c. £2m New inclusive facility for 16 pupils with SEN requirements, ‗Crownbridge at Penygarn‘ Primary School opened September 2008. Together with an ICC and the amalgamation, £1.7m was spent. Significant investment into secondary school kitchens and toilets. (£500k) Significant investment has taken place into making sites and buildings DDA compliant to improve access to support children and young people at transition. (£200k per year). Building of a new £7m primary school, Nant Celyn, to replace Brookfield and Hollybush Primary Schools due to open in Sept 2010. £12.1m remodelling, refurbishing and extending of Ysgol Gyfun Gwynllyw completed in Autumn 2012. New Crownbridge Special School facility adjacent to Croesyceiliog Comprehensive, opened in April 2012. (£9m) New Blaenavon Heritage Primary School to replacing St. Peter‘s Primary, Hillside Primary and Nursery Schools opened in April 2012. (c. £14m). Campus includes leisure facilities. Next phase is to build a Primary Care Resource Centre 2013/14. Established a new Welsh Medium Primary School in the Griffithstown / Sebastopol area on the site of the former Griffithstown Infant School site. Established 2 new Welsh Medium nursery provisions at Ysgol Panteg (Griffithstown) and the other at Ysgol Bryn Onnen. Extending, remodelling and refurbishing of Griffithstown Junior Site to accommodate infants in Summer 2012 (£2m). Transformation of Digital Learning for 14-16 Year Olds - Collaborative approach with other Local Authorities. (£14M)

Sites earmarked for new projects are as follows: Site secured (£5.5M) through a 106 agreement on the former Avesta steelworks site in Griffithstown / Sebastopol to build a new primary school.

2.2 Existing situation

The analysis of the current situation presented in the revised SOP and OBC made reference to school condition and suitability, pupil numbers and surplus places based on in-catchment needs and parental choice. Figures were based on trends over a number of years and current live birth data. Condition grades were identified for each school in brackets e.g. (C).

2.2.1 Primary Schools

Torfaen has made some good progress in recent years with limited resources and as a result of school reorganisation activities to date (including the current planned no/low cost closure proposals) combined with a short term projected birth rate increase, 5 year primary surplus places forecast has dropped from 18% to 10% overall in recent years. However, the majority of the remainder of its buildings are still in such a poor condition, that if improvements are not made, there is a high risk of service failure throughout the borough. There is also a significant maintenance backlog across the primary school estate.

2.2.2 Croesyceiliog Cluster

The schools in this cluster are as follows (condition grade shown in brackets):

Croesyceiliog Primary School (C) Maendy Primary School (C) Llanyravon Primary School (B) Pontnewydd Primary School (B/C).

Key issues and opportunities for this cluster include:

Maintenance backlog of approximately £3.2M. Croesyceiliog and Llanyravon Primary Schools appear to have few surplus places, but both attract significant numbers of its pupils from 17 other schools‘ catchment areas and in reality have significant surplus places Traffic congestion caused by excessive number of car journeys in relation to the above point. All the schools in the cluster are in need of major refurbishment/remodelling or replacement to make them fit for the 21st Century with Maendy being the priority. There is a new 1200 housing development planned in South Sebastopol which requires 210 new places. Those pupils would have some impact on the number of surplus places.

2.2.3 Llantarnam Cluster

The schools in this cluster are as follows (condition grade shown in brackets):

Nant Celyn Primary School (A - new) Llantarnam Primary School (D) Woodlands Primary School (B) Two Locks Nursery School (D)

Key issues and opportunities for this cluster include:

Maintenance backlog of approximately £2M. Llantarnam Community Primary School is life-expired, contains hazardous ACMs, is unsuitable and is in a discrete location on the edge of the cluster and Torfaen. Due the poor condition of the school and the number of surplus places elsewhere, pupils have drifted away from this school. Woodlands Primary School is an historical anomaly for this cluster, serving the Thornhill area, resulting in an annual revenue cost of £130,000 to transport children past the local secondary school to get to one further away. Woodlands school will need investment in the future, but is not a priority. Following formal objections received during the statutory consultation period, the decision to close Two Locks Nursery is currently with Welsh Government for determination. There is sufficient capacity elsewhere in the area. There are 2 likely future housing developments in the Llantarnam catchment which would generate an additional 464 houses and approximately 90 pupils. Llantarnam Secondary School site is large enough to accommodate a primary school as well.

2.2.4 Fairwater Cluster

The schools in this cluster are as follows (condition grade shown in brackets):

Blenheim Road Primary School (C/D) Greenmeadow Primary School (B/C) Coed Eva Primary School (B).

Key issues and opportunities for this cluster include:

Maintenance backlog approximately £3M.

The schools attract pupils from many other school catchment areas. This is due to the close proximity of schools in the Cwmbran area, existing surplus capacity in most of these schools, and the ease of access throughout Cwmbran. It would therefore be expected that proposals affecting one Cwmbran cluster would have an impact on surplus places in the others. Blenheim Road School is life-expired and unsuitable for 21st Century. The buildings are at risk of failure. Due the poor condition of the school and the number of surplus places elsewhere, pupils have drifted away from this school, but it is in the right place. Coed Eva has poor access and limited parking, but is currently investigating the possibility of extending car parking for staff. Parents have the opportunity to park and stride to the north of the school site. Coed Eva and Greenmeadow will need investment in the future, but Blenheim Road is the priority in this cluster. Nant Celyn catchment has inherited an historical anomaly going passed Coed Eva on Henllys Way. There appears to be a large number of surplus places in this cluster, but this will be significantly reduced by the planned housing development on the former Police college site which is in the Local Development Plan for Torfaen.

2.2.5 Abersychan Cluster

The schools in this cluster are as follows (condition grade shown in brackets):

Blaenavon Heritage VC Primary School (A - new) Garnteg Primary School (A/B) Pontnewynydd Primary School (C/D) Cwmffrwdoer Primary School (C) Victoria Primary School (C) Brynteg Nursery (C)

Key issues and opportunities for this cluster include:

Maintenance backlog approximately £1.6M. Blaenavon is a discrete geographical community and a new school was opened 2012, replacing St. Peter‘s CiW Primary School, Hillside Primary and Nursery. There is significant in and out of catchment movement due to close proximity of some schools cross-cluster. (Between Pontnewynnydd and Penygarn). Victoria and Pontnewynydd buildings and sites are unsuitable for 21st Century and life expired.

Pontnewynydd has very poor access with no pavements. A safe route to community (path) was put in, but vehicle access remains poor. Due to the geography and topography, there is a shortage of suitable alternative sites for relocating Victoria and Pontnewynydd Primary Schools. Cwmffrwdoer is in need of significant investment and has scope to improve vehicle access and increase capacity using the adjacent field in council ownership. Garnteg School is in good condition and has scope to be extended to increase its capacity.

2.2.6 West Monmouth Cluster

The schools in this cluster are as follows (condition grade shown in brackets):

George Street Primary (B) New Inn Primary (C) Griffithstown Primary (B) Penygarn Primary (B/C) Kemys Fawr Infant (C/D) Pontymoile Primary (D)

Key issues and opportunities for this cluster include:

Maintenance backlog of approximately £2M. Griffithstown Primary has been partially remodelled, refurbished and extended in 2012 at a cost of £2M. All schools draw pupils from other catchments, New Inn and Griffithstown in particular, resulting in serious issues with traffic congestion around these sites. Pontymoile and Kemys Fawr buildings are unsuitable for the 21st Century and life-expired. Penygarn and Pontymoile have significant surplus places. George Street has the scope to be remodelled to increase its capacity. Following formal objections received during the statutory consultation period, the decision to close Pontymoile and Kemys Fawr is currently with Welsh Government for determination. There is sufficient capacity elsewhere in the area. Due to their close proximity, Penygarn and Pontnewynydd (Abersychan cluster) draw pupils from each other‘s catchments. Through a Section 106 Planning Agreement, the LA has acquired a site suitable for the construction of a new primary school in Griffithstown. The demand for Welsh medium places is such that this is planned to become a Welsh medium school. There is a significant Traveller community in this cluster which mainly feeds Pontymoile and George Street.

2.2.7 Welsh Medium Cluster

The schools in this cluster are as follows (condition grade shown in brackets):

Bryn Onnen (B/C) Gymraeg Cwmbran (B/C) Panteg (C/D)

Key issues and opportunities for this cluster include:

Maintenance backlog of approximately £0.8M. Ysgol Panteg was created in Sept 2010 on the site of the former Griffithstown Infant School. There is a slight projected shortfall in places for Welsh Medium in Torfaen The condition and suitability of Bryn Onnen is poor. The suitability of Gymraeg Cwmbran and Panteg are not ideal given the buildings were formerly infant schools and both have limited play areas. Through a Section 106 Planning Agreement, the LA has acquired a site suitable for the construction of a new primary school in Griffithstown.

2.2.8 Nursery Provision

As a result of carrying a desk-top audit, there is a significant overall surplus of nursery places across the combined LA, VA and private/voluntary partners. There are 2 standalone nurseries, both in poor condition (C/D), 19 schools with integral nurseries, 10 schools without, and 16 partners.

2.2.9 Roman Catholic Primary Cluster

The schools in this cluster are as follows (condition grade shown in brackets):

Our Lady‘s RC Primary School (C) Padre Pio RC Primary School (A) St. David‘s RC Primary School (C)

Key issues and opportunities for this cluster include:

Maintenance backlog of approximately £0.8M. These are regional schools without specific catchment areas. They are VA controlled and as such, have distinct admissions criteria.

Padre Pio, a new school, serves the north of the borough while St. David‘s and Our Lady‘s are situated in Cwmbran serve the remainder of the borough. St. David‘s in Cwmbran is showing a projected significant surplus. Both St. David‘s and Our Lady‘s are in poor condition, have poor access and sites that are unsuitable. The Roman Catholic Church is prepared to consider a single larger school in Cwmbran in the future and also collaboration with the Church in Wales.

2.2.10 Church in Wales Primary Cluster

The schools in this cluster are as follows (condition grade shown in brackets):

Ponthir CiW Primary (B) Henllys CiW Primary (B)

Key issues and opportunities for this cluster include:

Maintenance backlog of approximately £0.5M. These are regional schools without specific catchment areas. They are VA controlled and as such, have distinct admissions criteria. Whilst numbers at Ponthir have increased in the last 2 years, it is still forecast to have numbers on roll of 100-120, with little opportunity or demand to expand. Ponthir is a distinct community on the edge of the county, whilst Henllys in Cwmbran draws pupils from a wider area. There is a cross-border arrangement at secondary level with Ponthir pupils going to Caerleon. The junior classrooms in Henllys are below standard at only 45sqm. The Church in Wales and Roman Catholic Church are prepared to consider joint church schools at Primary and Secondary. They have highlighted the secondary school example in Wrexham.

2.2.11 Educational Outcomes

Schools in Torfaen have made some improvements in recent years in term of learner outcomes. The performance data for 2011/12 data was as follows:

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KS2 Core KS3 Core KS4 L2 KS5 Foundation Subject Subject threshold incl Wider Points phase Indicator Indicator Indicator E/W & M Score Torfaen 83.33% 85.59% 71.82% 45.63% 798.3 points

National Average 80.47% 82.58% 72.53% 51.08% 772.9 points

National 6th 6th 15th 17th N/A Rankings

The performance data for 2012/13 shows the following improvements:

Foundation KS2 Core KS3 Core KS4 L2 KS5 Level 3 phase Indicator Subject Subject threshold incl threshold Indicator Indicator E/W & M Torfaen 87.6% 89.1% 79.8% 50.5% 95.7%

National Average 83.0% 84.3% 77.0% 52.7% 96.5%

National 3rd 2nd 9th Don‘t know 15th Rankings yet

We support Estyn's view that providing children with new or improved buildings significantly improves educational outcomes. Torfaen is a highly corporate local authority and the focus upon improving education outcomes has been prioritised in Corporate Plan 1 and is refreshed in Corporate Plan 2. This corporate focus is then threaded through the Council‘s Education Service Improvement Plan and wider Team Plans. This coherence has brought improvement to date and reflects the commitment to driving up standards in Torfaen.

2.3 Investment Objectives

Following the submission of the OBC, feedback received relating to the strategic case included:

the ‗programme level‘ investment objectives are not SMART there are too many ‗sub-objectives‘ and not all are SMART a new template for investment aims / investment objectives / benefits / measures / targets has been provided by DfES which has been used

2.3.1 Welsh Government Investment Objectives

The Welsh Government Strategic 21st Century Schools Programme Investment Objectives are: Learning environments for children and young people in Wales aged from 3 to19 that will enable the successful implementation of strategies for school improvement and better educational outcomes; A sustainable education system through better use of resources to improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the education estate, and which enhances local public service provision; A 21st Century Schools Standard for all schools in Wales which reduces recurrent costs, energy consumption and carbon emissions.

2.3.2 TCBC Investment Objectives

Torfaen CBC reviewed and reworded the WG programme investment objectives above to tailor them to needs of Torfaen. Also, 3 more were added:

To develop a sustainable education system with all schools (equality) meeting national building standards and reducing the recurrent costs and carbon footprint.

To achieve inspirational settings appropriate for new educational developments and new technologies and adaptable to cater for the changing needs of the future.

To provide an outstanding resource for the whole community where school facilities can be shared and which can offer a range of co-located facilities. e.g. Child care, Health, Social Services, Adult Education, Youth and Play services.

In terms of reviewing these in SMART format linked to outcomes and benefits table provided by DfEs for the FBC, this is addressed in section 2.6.

2.3.3 Strategic Approach

There is a large out of catchment movement across schools in Torfaen which is mostly generated by the large surplus of places across the county borough. We believe all schools should be equal in the quality of the education they provide and meet the needs of their local community with some surplus places to allow for a degree of parental preference.

Our strategic approach is in line with the investment objectives and can be summarised as follows: consider the geography and arrangement of schools in their clusters use existing sites where possible, avoiding acquisitions and compulsory purchase orders aim to ensure continuity of provision from primary schools to secondary schools create 3-11 provision where possible to minimise transition problems consider 3-16/18 co-located provision where possible to minimise transition problems question if the school is in the right place and of the right size for its local community cause as little disruption as possible reduce transportation costs and journey times (not as achievable in VA and Welsh medium) reduce surplus places (to not more than 10%) by the rationalisation of the school estate minimise the number of small schools (less than 315 places) replace or remodel schools based on condition and suitability with sustainable developments and prioritise them based on greatest need aim to make the local school the preferred choice by parents, enabling them to develop into real Community Focussed Schools. promote Health and Wellbeing by encouraging walking to school. consider collaboration with neighbouring Local Authorities. reduce out of catchment pupils from current level of 37%

In terms of groups of projects, after the analysis was carried out, we decided to keep to the traditional cluster groupings for English medium, making changes only where anomalies existed. The VA and Welsh medium schools were considered on a regional basis with cross-border collaboration where appropriate.

2.3.4 Revised Guidance and Revised Submission New guidance was received from the Welsh Government since the publication of the SOP. This was issued on 14th October 2011 and requested Local Authorities revised their Band A proposals in line

with the following prioritised criteria:

The level of match funding required by the Council has increased from 30% to 50%. The poorest condition of the estate has to be prioritised (prioritisation to reside with the Council although the schools survey data will be applied) Surplus capacity has to be reduced Running efficiencies are to be made (e.g. reduction in running costs, backlog maintenance)

There were other critical changes introduced by Welsh Government that needed to be taken into account when revising our proposals:

A significant reduction in available capital across Wales. No formula grant funding in financial years 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14. The quantum estimated capital need for the original submission cannot be exceeded in any revised proposals The start of Band A projects has been delayed from 2012 to 2014 (Impact on Band B, C and D) The time period of Band A has been doubled from 3 years to 6 years (2012-2014 to 2014- 2019, impacting on Bands B, C and D) (At the time of writing, WG is currently reviewing the possibility of ending Band A by 2018/19) No source of capital funding available outside the scope of the programme for the next 8 years Band A projects need to be submitted in priority order No-cost or low capital cost options should be brought forward where possible.

Only projects where investment can be realised in the first 3 years should be included in this business case submission. i.e. only the first part of Band A.

2.3.5 Post-16 Transformation

The Strategic Outline Case, ‗Crossroads or Cul-de-sac - Transformation at 16 Plus‘ was published in March 2010 and submitted to DCELLS. The preferred option from that SOC was the creation of an integrated Post-16 Centre serving the whole of the county and the closure of one English medium school, all the English medium 6th forms and Coleg Gwent's Pontypool Campus. The preferred option was to be confirmed in the OBC, due for submission in March 2011. In the end, the OBC was only submitted in draft form as Coleg Gwent withdrew support for the submission, based on the issue of governance.

The reorganisation of secondary school and Post 16 education was largely taken care of in Band B. However, now that Band B will not start until 2020, an interim solution for Post 16 needed to be

developed and this was done in our Revised Band A proposals submitted to WG on 18th November 2011. In those revised proposals, reorganisation on Post 16 and secondary schools was given a significant priority.

However, discussions with WG and Coleg Gwent are still, at the time of writing, on-going regarding Post 16 education. Therefore, it was decided to bring forward the primary school projects in order to commit available funds from WG and TCBC and it is expected that the Post 16 issue will be resolved in order to proceed with investment in the secondary schools in a later phase of Band A.

2.3.6 Investment Objectives

In the OBC, the programme investment objectives were broken down into several more specific objectives which help to explain in detail what the TCBC wants to achieve in its 21st Century Schools Programme. These more specific objectives and targets where applicable were then used in the options appraisal and analysis. They were as follows:

To achieve greater economy and efficiency through appropriate sized schools, collaboration and better use of resources to improve the cost effectiveness of the education system. In doing so, ensuring that we have schools of the right type, right size in the right place. Specific objective Target Rationalisation of education estate Reduce the number of schools whilst still meeting other objectives Removes excess surplus places Minister‘s targets. Secondary 15%, Primary 10%

Schools in the right place To allow all pupils to attend a local school

Schools should be no smaller than 420 other than Minimum 420 place primary school in exceptional circumstances Lower transport costs to LA Zero cost

Collaboration across neighbouring authorities Where feasible where appropriate

To develop a sustainable education system with all schools (equality) meeting national building standards and reducing the recurrent costs and carbon footprint. Schools rebuilt or refurbished to modern standards, minimising running costs Specific objective Target Schools rebuilt or refurbished to modern All schools either rebuilt (BREEAM excellent) or standards, minimising CO2 emissions refurbished (incorporating energy saving solutions where possible) Provide options for English medium, Welsh Every child in Torfaen who wants a WM place to Medium and Faith schools within a reasonable have access to one distance Parents and children more likely to walk or cycle Allow every child to be able to walk to their local to school school Reduced traffic congestion from the school run Cut the need for anybody to have to travel by car to zero Meets BREEAM excellence where required All new build schools to achieve BREEAM Excellent (70%)

To create safe learning environments for schools and communities that will enable the successful implementation of strategies for school improvement and better educational outcomes and life chances for children and young people that are aligned to our key strategies: Corporate plan, HSCWB, SEF, Welsh Medium Education Strategy. Specific objective Target Hazardous, life-expired buildings and facilities All category D schools dealt with in Band A, and replaced all schools brought up to A or B category by end of programme Safe routes in the community addressed At all schools where road/footpath network investment allows and is affordable Enable all children and young people to develop Not attributable solely to capital investment to their full potential Enhanced community safety through engagement Not attributable solely to capital investment and participation in use of the local school and its facilities by its immediate community Reduced transition points and increased Take out transition between separate infant and continuity of provision junior schools All children and young people to have an Where there is opportunity and where it is accessible Early Years provision appropriate All children and young people have access to High quality playground/sports facilities to be play and external sporting provision provided in all school investment projects

To maximise attendance Not attributable solely to capital investment

Establish strong professional learning Not attributable solely to capital investment communities in schools

To achieve inspirational settings appropriate for new educational developments, new technologies and adaptable to cater for the changing needs of the future. Specific objective Target Technology Rich environment Investment to include ICT Provide opportunity to extend learning beyond the Provide outdoor classroom space for Foundation classroom Phase Flexible, adaptable Teaching and Learning Provide moveable partitions and large spaces spaces (BB99 +15%) High quality buildings and facilities, both inside All category B to D condition schools and out, that inspire learners and the community remodelled/refurbished as a minimum, some replaced with new. To offer children and young people a curriculum Not attributable solely to capital investment that engages and motivates them to learn

To provide an outstanding resource for the whole community where school facilities can be shared and which can offer a range of co-located facilities. E.g. Child care, Health, Social Services, Adult Education, Youth and Play services. Specific objective Target Opportunity to completely co-locate other At least 1 example, where there is opportunity services (e.g. health centre on a school site) and where it is appropriate To deliver a more integrated services through the At least 1 example, where there is opportunity provision of multi-agency space for Council and where it is appropriate services Ensure that all schools are community focussed Provide high quality spaces/facilities that could (school in the right place, utilised throughout and encourage community use after school. beyond the school day)

To achieve inclusive settings, providing for the individual learning needs for all pupils, providing pleasant and appropriate spaces for all school users; spaces in which pupils including those with additional learning needs and disabilities feel that their needs are respected. Specific objective Target Enable the majority of children to be taught in All refurbishments/new builds to cater for hearing their local schools in mainstream classes and/or and visually impaired children. smaller groups alongside their peers Enables children with profound and multiple Every new build to have specific inclusion space. learning difficulties to experience inclusive provision

Feedback from the OBC submission suggested that there were too many objectives and that they were not all phrased in fully SMART terms. This has lead us to focus on a reduced number of SMART investment objectives in the FBC for the purposes of commencing readiness for post project evaluation. These are detailed in section 2.6.1 using the outcomes/benefits template provided by DfES.

2.4 Business Needs and proposed solutions

2.4.1 Criteria 1:

School improvement The five local authorities of Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Monmouthshire, Newport and Torfaen have formed an Education Achievement Service (EAS) which is designed to raise education standards in South East Wales. Standards in some schools have not improved and recent secondary school banding information revealed that South East Wales had the highest number of schools in the lower bands. This information highlights the underperformance in schools, and the need for a significant shift in the way that education services are structured to support improvement. It also shows where the greatest need is in the region and where the EAS will need to focus its resources. The EAS has been created by the five local authorities to raise education standards. By working together as part of an integrated service to support and challenge schools effectively, enhance front line services and make the most of the available resources, progress will take place quickly and effectively. The service will intensely monitor, support and challenge schools. Benefits of the service include increased capacity to support schools that require challenge, using data more effectively to focus on outcomes, identifying good practice across schools that can be used to improve outcomes, more efficient administration and facilitating professional learning communities.

By 2015 the work of the EAS aims to, at a minimum, result in:

No school in Band 5 All current Band 4 schools moved up out of band Level 2 maths raised to at least current Level 2 English / Welsh On leaving primary school every child a reader and every child numerate and for all schools the gaps halved between free school meals (FSM) and non FSM performance

The EAS will look to focus on the following: Under-attainment of boys Under-attainment of learners in receipt of FSM Low rates of attainment in reading, writing and the application of literacy and numeracy Need to spread good practice evenly Relatively high numbers of schools performing below acceptable levels for key stage 2 and 4 Highly diverse socio-economic demographic, skewed towards high level of deprivation and poverty Large proportion of schools, especially in the primary sector, which are over dependant on their council The need for increased level of council monitoring and challenge particularly following Estyn inspection Need to continue to improve school attendance and reduce exclusions Need for earlier diagnosis and support of children and young people with additional learning needs

2.4.2 Criteria 2: Transforming the approaches to teaching and learning, including the use of ICT across ages 3 - 19.

Torfaen has a history of putting innovative ideas into practice. It currently has secondary and primary professional learning communities which meet monthly to share best practice in teaching and learning methods. It has developed its ICT strategy with external partners including Microsoft and Cisco and is at the forefront in Wales in terms of ICT infrastructure investment with the following technologies installed in various schools across the county:

Wireless networks Video Conferencing Interactive Whiteboards (IWB) Apple Mac labs Virtual Learning Environments through use of iLearnWales (11-18), Moodle (now Hwb+) and other web-based technologies such as Purple Mash. Touch screen technology, including a growing number of tablet devices e.g. iPads

Recording and Broadcast studios, both fixed and portable in nature Green-screen technology Google Chromebooks Learning Plazas – flexible learning spaces which can be configured for up to 60 pupils with a range of digital devices, projectors and IWBs (i.e. influencing building design)

Our aim is to equip all schools across ages 3-19 with the resources they need to deliver a curriculum using the new technology as an integral element in the delivery of learning. This includes the likely evolution of the ICT curriculum from the consumption of digital media towards the creation of applications and programming. Schools are supported in achieving these aims via the core, responsive and discretionary programme of support provided by the SE Wales Education Achievement Service‘s 21st Century Learning Team (see https://mysid.ilearnwales.org.uk). Working in partnership through local authority investment and educational support from the regional consortium will enable schools to fulfil a vibrant 21stC learning environment.

This project requires the consistent development of effective pedagogies initially defined and exemplified in the strategy for technology rich learning in Torfaen and 'good practice framework' developed to support the iLearnWales programme and now superseded by effective application of the Excellence in Teaching Framework, developed in partnership between the SE Wales EAS and Portal Training. Effective interpretation of the framework for 21st Century learning will ensure that teachers and pupils will be able to develop effective learning experiences in well-equipped environments.

The development of the system initially at a regional level needs organisational leadership and facilitation. However, we anticipate that the development of the system will shift over time. The provision of a system providing a high level of functionality will enable school-based staff to innovate within and beyond their own classroom. It is important that the system is responsive to school-based demand and innovation and is flexible enough to accommodate this whenever possible. As technology and curricula change it is essential that the infrastructure designed to support learning is flexible enough to adapt to these changes.

Torfaen LA (supported by Monmouthshire) led the development of the iLearnWales VLE, which has enabled learners in the 11-18 age groups to access digital learning materials 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. This VLE as now been adopted by the regional education consortium to support elements of school improvement work and to celebrate Practice Worth Sharing, where each school across the region can access case studies and resources to support school and staff professional development. The success of this platform highlights Torfaen‘s vision to support learning through digital technologies and also its desire to act as a supporting partner across the SE region in Wales.

A standard ICT specification document for primary schools in Torfaen has been developed since the publication of the OBC in collaboration with the EAS and SRS.

2.4.3 Criteria 3: School organisation - location, size and types of school; surplus places; inter-authority issues; organisational change across the 3-19 spectrum; improving the efficiency of the school estate; Welsh Medium education; Statutory approvals that may be needed for organisational change.

In the relatively short space of time since the creation of Torfaen CBC, we have already taken difficult decisions in reorganising our schools provision. We have amalgamated many infant and junior schools, closed a secondary school, and integrated nurseries into primary schools. In developing our 21st Century Schools proposals, we have taken the holistic approach to review the locations, sizes, types, condition and suitability of all our schools across the whole 3-19 age range. We cannot rest on our laurels - there are still, similar, tough decisions to be made. However, through the 21st Century Schools Programme, there is now also the opportunity to define our long term strategy to transform education and community facilities right across the Local Authority. In 2004, Torfaen was forecasted to have the highest number of surplus primary places in Wales (28%). In January 2012 it was ranked joint 9th with 18%, but the business need was set by Leighton Andrews, Minister for Education, to reduce primary surplus places to 10% and secondary surplus places to 15% by 2015. We aim to fulfil our commitment to make 3-11 an all-through provision and examine those areas in which this is not the case. In our approach we have focused on a cluster basis to address where the real surplus places are by catchment need, and have also questioned if we can create a 3-16 school in each cluster or close further schools. Where possible, we have looked to minimise the number of smaller schools apart from in exceptional circumstances. e.g. Welsh medium, faith and geographical anomalies.

The provision of Welsh medium schools is one area in which Torfaen has worked successfully in collaboration with other authorities. We have been the lead Local Authority in collaborating with the neighbouring Local Authorities of Blaenau Gwent, Monmouthshire and Newport in the development of Welsh Medium Secondary schools. All of the Year 6 pupils from the 4 Authorities in the Welsh-medium primary sector transfer to Ysgol Gyfun Gwynllyw (YGG) in Torfaen. Historically, the Welsh medium school took more of its pupils from the neighbouring Local Authorities than it did from Torfaen. However, the number of YGG's pupils living in Torfaen has risen steadily in recent years to the current level of 39%. The school will be able to fill all its places from Torfaen by 2015/16 as demand for Welsh medium places continues to rise across the South East Wales region. This is recognised by the neighbouring Local Authorities.

For ‗Band A‘ projects we have identified those projects where the community is in the greatest and most urgent need of improvements to their learning facilities, but at the same time being realistic about what public consultation process can be completed within the time constraints.

2.4.4 Criteria 4: Sustainability and Carbon reduction strategies

Energy consumption and emissions (brought up to date since OBC)

Primary Schools in Torfaen in 2013/14 spent a total of £270,180 on electricity, £369,733 on gas for heating and £102,982 on water Secondary Schools in Torfaen in 2013/14 spent a total of £376,388 on electricity, £297,372 gas and for heating and £69,378 on water Primary schools CO2 emissions total 2,928 t with 1,767 t from fossil fuel and 1,160 t from electricity Secondary Schools CO2 emissions total 3,917 t with 1,575 t from electricity and 1,564 t from fossil fuel. Our current primary schools energy costs range from £39.27/pupil/annum to £128.69/pupil/annum. Our current secondary schools energy costs range from £45.87/pupil/annum to £144.88/pupil/annum. 12 LEA Primary schools and 2 Secondary schools have a Display Energy rating of D100 or better 54% of the Torfaen Council‘s building emissions are attributable to our schools estate. There are an estimated half a million car journeys of less than 3 miles made every year in Torfaen when performing the ‗School Run‘. Currently 0.5% of schools energy requirements are met by renewable sources.

Boiler replacement programmes have been undertaken at 4 schools, lighting replacement programmes at 3 schools. Over 98% of all Torfaen Schools have Automatic Meter Reading equipment installed on gas and electricity supplies and in partnership with Welsh Water, 30 schools have real-time water metering data available to each school through the internet to ensure water consumption can be monitored.

Torfaen County Borough Council was selected in 2013, amidst strong competition, to take part in the ambitious Carbon Trust Schools Awareness Programme. Torfaen County Borough Council and its participating schools, is partnered with the Carbon Trust on this programme in order to realise carbon and cost savings in schools.

10 schools participated in a series of workshops and with onsite visits from the Carbon Trust and Council Energy Team they are in process of completing assessments and setting targets for cost and CO2 reductions.

From the programme data gathering exercise, if we can get the 23 Primary Schools who exceed the Carbon Trust typical cost benchmark of £54/pupil/annum to achieve this benchmark then it is anticipated savings of £134,243 and 671 tCO2 can be realised.

The 21st Century Schools Programme will be key in continuing to make further CO2 & cost reductions beyond 2013.

Design Philosophy Buildings and the environment are inextricably linked. Fundamentally, the construction of healthy buildings results in an environment that promotes the health of the occupants as well as the health of the planet through sustainable development.

Design Considerations and the Environment The main factors considered in the design of sustainable construction are concerned with Occupants' Health, Energy Efficiency, Affordable and Economic Viability, Resource Efficiency and Environmental Responsibility.

Sustainable Materials and Techniques Technological advances for high-energy efficiency and low running costs are available at affordable cost in terms of construction. A reduction of 30 – 40% of energy usage is possible in building design through the implementation of practices such as Prefabrication off site and savings in construction times and waste management, Grey Water Recycling, Solar Water Heating, Solar Efficiency, Heating, Recovering Waste Energy, Waste Disposal, Passive Ventilation, Warmcell Insulation and Timber Frame Construction, Lighting Fittings and Lighting Control, Buildability and Prefabrication of Components, South Facing Glazing, Blinds, Automatic Garden Watering, Building Energy Management Systems.

Design Philosophy Conclusions For designers, property professionals, building users, funding bodies, and contractors there are far reaching long term financial benefits to be gained by adopting a green construction policy. For the environment, the use of eco-friendly building systems and materials is necessary if we are to protect the environment and resources for future generations. For building end users the cost savings in running costs can be significant. It is in the interests of all the major players in the construction industry to take on the challenge of sustainable development and embrace the philosophy and change the way we build and live. Torfaen‘s philosophy is to harness some or all of the aforementioned

technologies depending on the scope within the development together with recycled content of 20% on all new developments and aim for BREEAM excellent as our minimum standard for new builds.

2.4.5 Criteria 5: Strategies for co-location and integration through community-focused schools and the role of Local Service Boards in enabling such initiatives.

We have a good history in Torfaen of collaborative working with other services and other authorities.

Examples where this has worked in the past are: Blaenavon Community Campus opened in 2012 incorporating Education (Primary School and Flying Start) and Leisure. By 2015 it will also provide Health, Council and Police services. Welsh medium secondary school, Ysgol Gyfun Gwynllyw is a collaboration with 3 other Local Authorities. There are some shared leisure facilities (e.g. at Fairwater High School, Llantarnam High School, Ysgol Gyfun Gwynllw, Blaenavon Heritage VC Primary School. Crownbridge special school admits pupils from other Local Authorities (Monmouthshire currently send pupils) Nant Celyn is a regional provider of a Hearing Impaired Service. Fairwater High School has a regional Autistic Unit. Llantarnam Secondary School has a regional Hearing Impaired Unit.

Following on from the work done by Local Service Boards, we have considered possible co-location of Leisure, Health, Police, Social Services, Youth and Play Services within all the clusters, to understand where it may benefit the community. In general, for all new-builds or major refurbishment projects, consideration will be given to providing multi-agency office space or a group room and access to sports facilities for the wider community.

A good example of this in the past is the new school in Blaenavon that incorporates a Primary School, Nursery Provision, Flying Start, Leisure Facilities and Health Board office accommodation.

Other Local Authorities: We have spoken to Newport, Monmouthshire and Blaenau Gwent in forming our strategy and developing options.

2.4.6 Standardised School Design

For further information on Torfaen‘s standardised school design concept was requested by DfES for inclusion in the FBC. This is as follows: The guidance document Building Bulletin 99 is currently the mainstay reference document in assisting in the development of whole school area schedules and outside provision. On recent school builds,

Torfaen had previously aimed to achieve BB99 space requirements plus 10-15% in order to allow the schools more inspiring and flexible spaces. In response to the current financial climate however, we are reverting to BB99.

Torfaen has reviewed the traditional approach and developed its own philosophy to meet the ever changing curriculum, the advances in pedagogy and technology rich environments. The philosophy is based on whole school environment which is wholly flexible with multiple use of space to meet these ever changing needs.

New school buildings built within the 21 century programme could be based on a clear set of standardised drawings and specifications incorporating the latest thinking on educational requirements and continuous learning to improve quality and reduce cost. Currently new schools are designed from a clean canvas, generally bespoke designs to suit the prevailing site environments and client user needs which generally when delivered provide inspiring teaching and learning environments but at a significantly increased cost to standardised ones – the key is to adopt a standardised design that will appeal to head teachers ,staff , Governors and the pupils/parents that will give rise to a stimulating learning experience and help raise attainment levels across all KS groups.

Standardisation through continual learning should eliminate much of this in that a suite of drawings and specifications can be adopted with tried and tested techniques to deliver quality and performance that will leave a legacy of fit for purpose and inspiring settings. These drawings would cover the layouts and dimensions of spaces and walls, and details of how different materials and components will be fixed together. The specifications would be a written description of the standards and performance required of the materials and components that make up the building. It is vitally important that this approach of standardised drawings and specifications should not be thought of only as a way to reduce costs, but as important delivery educational settings that provide the best outcomes for learners.

Using standardised designs costs can be spread between many projects over the life of the 21 Century schools programme dramatically reducing the per school cost at the pre-construction phase. Standardised drawings and specifications should improve quality through bringing together all the relevant expertise and experience, from Educationalists, designers and contractors and for continuous improvement from one project to the next.

The drawings and specifications for the standard design can allow for facilities to be tailored to a reasonable degree to reflect the individual educational vision and site location.

The design, procurement and construction processes ought to be simplified, and risk reduced as the entire supply chain becomes experienced in delivering to a common platform, during the construction phase less waste, in both time and money, should accrue whilst significantly reducing errors and

allowing improved productivity through repetition. Off-site prefabrication of elements or blocks may be possible through design standardisation which may reduce timescales and construction costs,

Early Years Environment The concept has been developed to provide a wholly flexible space internally, easily adaptable to inevitable changes in future years. Walls are flexible, not fixed thus enabling changes to the accommodation layout and size of spaces to suit pupil number changes.

In recent new school builds we have brought the outside, inside to create an external foundation learning through play experience to supplement an outside play and foundation phase area. Through this space pupils can access the benefits of the foundation phase every day of their academic year and is not weather dependent.

KS1 and 2 – Teaching Space Torfaen has developed a flexible learning space rather than a traditional classroom although this is not a new idea. This is intended to create breakout spaces and flexible learning zones that support a range of critical learning modalities.

Interior and Exterior Vistas Given that so much of learning in school happens in enclosed places, there is great benefit to expanding a student‘s horizons (literally) by creating visible lines of sight that extend as far as possible outside the room.

Dispersed Technology For students in particular, technology is almost an extension of themselves. They use it to communicate, to discover the world, to play games, to collaborate, to create things, to write, to read and to organise their lives. Nothing could be more foreign to them than a school without technology or one where technology is relegated to its own special place — such as in a computer room. The design removes the barriers of traditional thinking around computer rooms and instead embraces the philosophy of technology being accessible everywhere in the building by way of wireless connectivity.

Quiet Space We now know that discourse and collaborative learning are critical to the development of well-rounded citizens. These so-called ―soft‖ skills are actually at the top of the list of qualifications for success and almost any profession.

Individual Space Places for individual study, reflection, quiet reading and creative flow are rare in school. It is true that most schools have libraries to encourage reading and independent study, but the problem with

libraries is that they are mostly set up according to an adult‘s view of what a quiet place should be. The very rules that keep a library quiet sometimes make it oppressive for students. Schools need to explore other areas that can serve as Cave Reading Spaces.

Flexible Spaces Creating multi-functional spaces is easier said than done. For example, one of the most common multifunctional spaces in school is the ―Hall‖ which is a cafeteria with a stage at one end. While this kind of space may work sometimes, user communities are often unhappy with this particular combination of uses. With the number of hours that are scheduled for food service, the utility of the space as a place for performances, music and drama is severely compromised. On top of that, it is hard to reconcile the different ambiances that a cafeteria and an auditorium needs.

Natural Ventilation School building design needs to maximise access to natural ventilation. Like daylight, natural air contributes to a healthy environment. It can alleviate or eliminate some of the more serious problems associated with spending excessive amounts of time in conditioned spaces.

Full Spectrum Lighting ―We want plenty of windows and warm lighting — not those cold fluorescents.‖ This is a frequent request we hear from teachers when we plan their environments. While the benefits of full spectrum lamps remain inconclusive, there is a good deal of consensus on the value of daylight and quality lighting design.

Sustainable Elements and Building Today, the term ―High Performance‖ is a buzzword in school design — and rightly so. High performance refers both to the performance of the building itself, as well as to those who live and work in the buildings. In a school setting, sustainable design becomes an excellent teaching tool. It can become a dynamic model to teach architecture, engineering, construction, and environmental science in harmony with nature.

Connected to the Community There are three separate aspects that make a school a community school:

Location near heart of community; School designed to a welcoming place for the community; Ties with businesses, organisations, recreational amenities etc to extend the school‘s learning potential.

Proposed Primary School The adopted design will be a primary school model to be rolled out across several sites, starting with Ysgol Panteg, Blenheim Road and Llantarnam primary schools.

The proposal is to construct a 420 place primary school with an early-years unit that incorporates a nursery for 52 (to accommodate rising 3 year olds) part-time places .The proposed development forms part of band A 21 Century schools programme for Torfaen. This design will form a standard design for future projects including layout, detailing, materials and services – elevational treatments may be bespoke to suit site and surrounding area conditions and planning requirements.

Additional facilities will be provided for continuing education facilities and inclusive provision.

The building will be organised into the following departments Early-years (reception class, nursery), Infants and Juniors.

The building will be designed as a standard 2FE model to allow flexible use of accommodation between each of the component parts. The teaching space layouts with finishes & colour schemes to be developed after consultation with the teaching staff and be appropriate to the current and anticipated future curriculum needs. Accommodation should also emphasise flow and continuity across the age ranges. The design of the building should be such that it can be set up as a 420 place school, or a 315 place school initially, with the scope to extend it at a later date to 420, should pupil numbers increase. Possible expansion to a 525 design would also be of benefit for possible application in later bands of the 21st Century Schools Programme.

The new school design must take into account the current and likely key drivers for change in schools, including the likely impact of a more diverse curriculum, new ways of learning and the impact of ICT, opening up the school to the wider community and the inclusion of pupils with Special Educational Needs into mainstream school.

Having engaged with many architects and building contractors over the last year, the design brief or specification set out by Torfaen Education Service does not preclude the market place from offering existing ‗standardised‘ school solutions. Some models may need some minor modifications however, to meet Torfaen‘s requirements, not least of which would include provisions for the Foundation Phase, which does not have the same requirements in England where most of these models originated.

2.5 21st Century Schools Programme Bands A to D

A good understanding of the existing situation against the business needs, led us to be able to prioritise investment in the TCBC school estate. We submitted the revised SOP with the following bands and priorities, amounting to an investment of £257.6M over the whole programme.

2.5.1 Band A (2014-2019)

Priority 1 Llantarnam / Fairwater Secondary 11-18 – Remodelling 6.0 m Site to be confirmed Priority 2 Abersychan Secondary School 11-18 School – Remodelling 2.0 m Current site Priority 2 West Mon Secondary 11-18 Secondary School – Remodelling 2.0 m Current site Priority 3 Blenheim Road Primary School – Remodelling 5.7 m Current site Priority 4 Llantarnam Primary New School – Reconstruction 7.4 m Secondary School site Priority 5 Croesyceiliog Secondary New School 11-18 – Reconstruction 36.0 m Current site Priority 6 Ysgol Panteg Primary New School – Reconstruction 8.5m Avesta site Priority 7 Garnteg / Victoria Primary School – Remodelling 4.8 m Garnteg site Priority 8 Penygarn/Pontnewynydd Primary – Remodelling 4.0m Penygarn Site Priority 9 Cwmffrwdoer Primary School – Remodelling 5.2 m Current site No cost 1 George Street / Pontymoile Primary School – 0.0 m George Street site No cost 1 New Inn / Pontymoile Primary School 0.0 m New Inn site No cost 2 Two Locks Nursery – Close 0.0 m Nant Celyn Primary/ICC has capacity No cost 3 Griffithstown / Kemys Fawr Primary School 0.0 m Griffithstown Primary No cost 4 Withdraw Post 16 transport 0.0 m

No cost 5 Revert to statutory mileage for school transport 0.0 m

Total 81.6 m

2.5.2 Band B (2020-2022)

Maendy Primary New School – Reconstruction 10.5 m (Current site) Our Ladys / St Davids RC Primary New School – Reconstruction 7.7 m (New site) (excluding land) Ysgol Bryn Onnen – Remodelling 3.5 m (If no appropriate alternatives) Ysgol Gymraeg Cwmbran – Remodelling 3.4 m (Current site) St Albans RC Secondary New School 11-18 – Reconstruction 40.0 m (New site) (including land) Brynteg – Close 0.0 m (Once alternative provision is established) Post 16 New Centre – Reconstruction 45.0m (New site) Total 110.1 m

2.5.3 Band C (2023-2025)

Pontnewydd Primary School – Remodelling 3.0 m (Current site) Greenmeadow Primary School – Remodelling 3.0 m (Current site) George Street – Remodelling 3.0 m (George Street site) New Inn Primary – Remodelling 3.0 m (New Inn site) Llantarnam Secondary School 11-18 – Remodelling 3.0 m (Llantarnam site) Fairwater Secondary School 11-18 – Remodelling 10.0 m Fairwater site Croesyceiliog / Llanyravon Primary New School – Reconstruction 12.0 m (Secondary School site) Coed Eva Primary School – Remodelling 4.0 m (Current site) Woodlands Primary School – Remodelling 3.2 m (Current site) Henllys / Ponthir New Primary School – Reconstruction 7.7 m (New site) (excluding land) Secondary School closure -3.0m (To be determined) Total 48.9 m

2.5.4 Band D (2026-2028)

Abersychan Secondary 11-18 School – Remodelling 6.0 m (Current site) West Mon Secondary 11-18 School – Remodelling 6.0 m (Current site) Ysgol Gwynllyw Secondary 11-18 School – Remodelling 5.0 m (Current site) Total 17.0 m

2.5.5 Amended Band A Priorities

Due to the delay to the Post 16 solution, in order to take advantage of available funding in the next 3 years, Band A projects were re-prioritised as follows:

Phase 1A – No or low cost options Phase 1B – Primary Schools priority projects Phase 2 – Secondary Schools priority projects Phase 3 – Primary Schools other projects

Phase 1 A – No or low cost options

Pontymoile Primary School – Closure and dispersal largely to George Street and New Inn (Closure approved for Sept 2014) Two Locks Nursery – Closure and dispersal to Nant Celyn Primary/ICC (Closure approved for Sept 2014) Kemys Fawr Infant School – Closure and dispersal to Griffithstown Primary (Closure approved for Sept 2014) Withdraw Post 16 transport Consultation underway Revert to statutory mileage for school transport Consultation underway

Phase 1B – Primary Schools priority projects (Subject of this FBC)

Blenheim Road Primary School – Major Remodelling or replacement on current site Ysgol Panteg Primary New School – Reconstruction on Avesta site £21.6M

Llantarnam Primary New School – Reconstruction on secondary school site

Phase 2 – Secondary Schools priority projects

Llantarnam / Fairwater Secondary 11-18 – Remodelling £6.0 m

Abersychan Secondary School 11-18 School – Remodelling £2.0 m

West Mon Secondary 11-18 Secondary School – Remodelling £2.0 m

Croesyceiliog Secondary New School 11-18 – Reconstruction £36.0 m

These 4 schools may become/remain 11-16 schools, subject to on-going discussions on Post 16 with Coleg Gwent and Welsh Government.

Phase 3 – Primary Schools other projects

Garnteg / Victoria Primary School – Remodelling £4.8 m

Penygarn/Pontnewynydd Primary – Remodelling £4.0m

Cwmffrwdoer Primary School – Remodelling £5.2 m

Since the submission of the OBC, it has been decided to bring forward the closure of Pontnewynydd Primary School (currently under consultation), in advance of the remodelling work required at Penygarn Primary School which is still required.

2.5.6 Existing Situation versus Business Need for Band A - Phase 1B

The following projects were identified as being Primary school priorities for Band A:

2.6 Benefits, risks, dependencies and constraints

2.6.1 Main benefits criteria

The benefits were initially developed and presented in the SOP and were revisited and modified during the production of the OBC. The following table shows the main potential outcomes and benefits associated with the implementation of the OBC in relation to the business needs and identifies the stakeholders who benefit, directly or indirectly. It formed the basis of the Benefit Analysis carried out in the Economic Case and is still valid.

They were categorised as: CRB – Cash Releasing Benefits QB – Quantifiable Benefits NQB – Non Quantifiable Benefits

(See next page)

Table: Benefits

Investment Objective / Benefits Benefit Group To achieve greater Rationalisation of education estate - release of sites for capital receipts and revenue savings (CRB) economy and efficiency through appropriate sized Removes excess surplus places (QB) schools, collaboration Schools should be no smaller than 420 other than in exceptional circumstances – more economical to run (QB) and better use of Schools in the right place: resources to improve the o lower transport costs to LA and/or families (CRB) cost effectiveness of the o alleviate traffic congestion as more parents and pupils will be able education system. In to walk to school (QB) doing so, ensuring that o improve health and well-being of some pupils and parents/carers we have schools of the now walking to school (NQB) right type, right size in the o collaboration across neighbouring authorities where appropriate (NQB) right place. o allow Community Focussed Schools to develop (NQB) To develop a sustainable Schools rebuilt or refurbished to modern standards: education system with all o more economical to run (QB) schools (equality) o minimising CO2 emissions (QB) meeting national building Provide options for English medium, Welsh Medium and Faith schools standards and reducing within a reasonable distance (QB) the recurrent costs and Parents and children more likely to walk or cycle to school (QB) carbon footprint. Reduced traffic congestion from the school run (QB) Meets BREEAM excellence where required (QB) To create safe learning Hazardous, life-expired buildings and facilities replaced (QB) environments for schools Safe routes in the community addressed (QB) and communities that will Enable all children and young people to develop to their full potential enable the successful (QB) implementation of Enhanced community safety through engagement and participation in use of the local school and its facilities by its immediate community strategies for school (QB) improvement and better Reduced transition points and increased continuity of provision - educational outcomes minimising the key stage transition point dip in pupil achievement, improving educational outcomes. (QB) and life chances for All children and young people to have an accessible Early Years children and young provision (QB) people that are aligned to All children and young people have access to play and external our key strategies: sporting provision (QB) Corporate plan, HSCWB, To maximise attendance (QB) SEF, Welsh Medium Establish strong professional learning communities in schools (NQB) Education Strategy

Investment Objective / Benefits Benefit Group To achieve inspirational Technology Rich environment (QB) settings appropriate for Provide opportunity to extend learning beyond the classroom (QB) new educational Flexible, adaptable Teaching and Learning spaces (QB) developments, new High quality buildings and facilities, both inside and out, that inspire technologies and learners and provide better educational outcomes and support for children, enabling them to achieve more as recognised by Estyn. (QB) adaptable to cater for the To offer children and young people a curriculum that engages and changing needs of the motivates them to learn (NQB) future. Enable greater staff development opportunities. (QB)

To provide an Opportunity to completely co-locate other services (e.g. health centre on a school site) – (QB) outstanding resource for the whole community To deliver a more integrated services through the provision of multi- agency space for Council services (QB) where school facilities Ensure that all schools are community focussed (school in the right can be shared and which place, utilised throughout and beyond the school day (QB) can offer a range of co- located facilities. E.g. Child care, Health, Social Services, Adult Education, Youth and Play services. To achieve inclusive All schools made fully accessible for the whole community (QB) settings, providing for the Enable the majority of children to be taught in their local schools in individual learning needs mainstream classes and/or smaller groups alongside their peers. (QB) for all pupils, providing pleasant and appropriate Enables children with profound and multiple learning difficulties to spaces for all school experience inclusive provision. (QB) users; spaces in which Safeguard children better by improving the building design and site pupils including those access and approaches. (QB) with additional learning needs and disabilities feel that their needs are respected.

Stakeholders who benefit include:

Learners and Parents TCBC Council Members WG

Schools Torfaen Residents

Feedback from the OBC suggested that the FBC should focus on a smaller number of SMART investment objectives linked to benefits and an Outcomes/Benefits template was provided by DfES for this purpose. The completed table is as follows:

Torfaen‘s 21st Century School Programme Objectives:

To develop a sustainable education system with all schools (equality) meeting national building standards and reducing the recurrent costs and carbon footprint.

To achieve inspirational settings appropriate for new educational developments and new technologies and adaptable to cater for the changing needs of the future.

Specific and Measurable Investment Objective Focus: Rationalise the education estate and remove excess surplus places

Benefit Measures Targets (SMART)

1. Fewer schools to maintain and - 7 secondary schools - 6 secondary schools fund - 28 primary schools - 22 primary schools - 1 stand alone infant school - 0 stand alone infant school - 2 stand alone nursery schools - 0 stand alone nursery schools at start of Band A by end of programme 2028.

2. Release of sites for alternative The number of sites made 10 sites in total by the end of use or for capital receipt. available for alternative use or programme 2028 capital receipt.

3. Excess surplus places The % number of surplus places removed. - Primary = 15% - Primary 10% by Sept 2015 - Secondary = 21% - Secondary 15% by Sept 2015

Specific and Measureable Investment Objective Focus: Right size school in the right place, local to the population. For primary schools, no smaller than 420 place other than in exceptional circumstances

Benefit Measures Targets (SMART)

4. Pupils and parents can use Currently 43% of pupils go out of Reduce this to 25% by end of their local school, encouraging catchment (May 2013). programme. walking and reducing traffic congestion 5. Fewer, cost inefficient small Currently 21 primary school Reduce to 10 under 420 and schools (less than 420 places) under 420 places 0 under 315 places. By end of programme 2028 Specific and Measurable Investment Objective Focus: Schools rebuilt or refurbished to modern building and education standards

Benefit Measures Targets (SMART)

6. High quality buildings and Condition grades A to D End of End of facilities that inspire learners Currently (Sept 13) Band A Band D and the community A – 3 A – 7 A - 13 B – 8 B – 8 B - 9 C – 14 C – 11 C - 0 D – 7 D – 0 D - 0

8. More economical to run and BREEAM rating of schools. By end of Band A investment minimising CO2 emissions Currently Torfaen has: - 2 Excellent - 5 Excellent - 1 Very good - 1 Very Good

Specific and Measurable Investment Objective Focus: Create safe learning environments for children and communities

Benefit Measures Targets (SMART)

9. Safe routes to school Number of schools with only 3 by end of programme provided inadequate walking routes to school = 5

10. Hazardous life expired Currently 7 category D primary Zero by end of band A buildings and facilities replaced schools and 1 category C secondary school which are life expired

Specific and Measurable Investment Objective Focus: Reduced transition points

11. Increased continuity of Currently 2 stand alone nursery 100% of schools to be 4-11or provision to avoid dips in pupil schools and 1 infant school 3-11 by end of Band B achievement

See Appendix D for the first draft of the Benefits Register.

2.6.2 Risks

The main business and service risks associated with the potential scope for this project are shown in the following table, together with their counter measures. They have been updated since the submission of the OBC.

Risk Counter Measure

Uncertain financial climate may mean that overall Ensure Torfaen 21st Century proposals meet all the WG funding levels may not match the total level revised criteria laid out by the Minister and his team. of investment required and hence some needed Band A funding has been approved. Regular updates investments are not secured by Torfaen and of funding matrix sent to DfES. RISK MITIGATED. buildings remain in poor condition. Residual risk is funding of Bands B to D. Failure to meet all the BREEAM grant conditions BREEAM excellent achieved on 2 recent new school may stop the project. builds in Torfaen, including one in a very challenging location. Staff and contractors know what is required to achieve it. RISK MITIGATED. Local Authorities now required to provide 50% of Detailed funding plan in place for Band A and funding for project from own resources but approved by Head of Finance. RISK MITIGATED. Torfaen does not have any cash and therefore may not win any funding Failure to complete 5 Case Treasury Model and Employ best practice project management techniques achieve timescales for development of project. including Prince 2 methodologies as appropriate. Maintain dialogue with DfES team for advice and feedback about production of business cases. Attend Better Business Case Network meetings. Develop Project Plan and align project phases with the political process. Follow statutory consultation process. RISK UNDER CONTROL Failure to get political approval (TCBC) and Use regular communication sessions to brief and board level approval. consult with council members, cabinet and management boards at appropriate decision making points in the project. SOP, Revised SOP and OBC approved. RISK UNDER CONTROL Delays in receiving political approval (Ministerial) Commitment given by Minister to shorten the delays project. process. Keep up to date with developments in this

Risk Counter Measure

area. DfES now advises 8-10 weeks turn around for business cases, subject to peaks in submissions. Also. Now holding scoping meetings with DfES officers in advance of submissions. Elections could change the political balance of Highlight when these might occur in the plan and be the council. realistic about decision making around these periods. Try to get cross-party support for proposals. RISK MITIGATED for Band A phase 1B. Election will not occur during the approval process period. Schools and public opposition to change, delays Positively engage with the schools and public at or stops some or all improvements being appropriate times during the development of the realised. (A single objection can stop the business case. process) Some Band A Phase 1B projects may not require statutory consultation under some options. Statutory consultations planned for Ysgol Panteg and Llantarnam Primary. One Band A Phase 2 project consultation has already taken place. RISK UNDER CONTROL Failure of Torfaen to secure necessary funding Ensure timely and attractive proposals are made to and therefore deliver nothing to the community secure funding and seek regular feedback from WG. will adversely affect Torfaen‘s public reputation Funding has been approved in principal for Band A to and will maintain the status quo of poor a total of £81.6M. buildings. RISK MITIGATED for Band A (Primary schools initially) Residual risk for secondary and Bands B to D. Critical building failure leading to Education Ensure priorities are identified clearly in business service failure. case. This business case submissions deals with this issue. RISK UNDER CONTROL. New surplus places targets from the Minister of Low or no costs options have been brought forward 10% for Primary and 15% for Secondary by 2015 to address surplus places figure for Primary. are aggressive and depend on release of capital Residual risk is for the secondary school figure as funds to implement 21st Century Schools this is now not achievable by 2015 due to delay projects. They may not be achieved if funding if caused by recent Post 16 discussions and lack of delayed. release of funds. However, risk is mitigated by a concession granted by WG, as long as a plan is agreed to get there as soon as possible after this date. 58

Risk Counter Measure

RISK UNDER CONTROL

Negative effect on pupils‘ Teaching and Learning Ensure proposals for change offer best possible experience caused by: Teaching and Learning experience for pupils. Shrinking year group sizes in some primary Aiming to reduce the number of small schools, e.g. schools leadings to mixed year group classes. single form entry primary schools. Limited choices available in some secondary RISK UNDER CONTROL schools

Delay in 'go-ahead' and funding release at each Notify WG of key decision milestones and phased stage delays delivery of transformation. payments required to allow project to proceed on time and keep in regular communication with them. TCBC submit regular funding matrix and Business Case schedule to WG on 30th Nov 2012 as requested, to aid in their planning. RISK UNDER CONTROL Shortage of resources and expertise within Carry out thorough skills assessment at SOC and TCBC to carry out key tasks within the project OBC stage (e.g. surveyors, planning, architects, delays the project. (e.g. dedicated project procurement, and project management). Then inform managers, finance resource to work out the council leader and TCBC executive team in order demanding future revenue calculations, to prioritise workloads or authorise recruitment. architects). This is heightened by the anticipated RISK UNDER CONTROL – resources are in place. national cuts in public spending. Project delayed by statutory undertakings. (e.g. Carry out early surveys to allow extra time and or Welsh Water, Bats, FIT for Wales, Countryside costs to be planned in. Ecology and Site Investigation Alliance, Slow worms) surveys have been initiated since the OBC approval. RISK UNDER CONTROL Project delivered late or over-budget due to main Ensure a contract is signed up to for each project, contractor. even within a Framework Agreement, holding main contractor accountable in order to be able to apply pressure to them and to make them liable for our additional costs resulting from their failure. RISK UNDER CONTROL Insufficient links with other TCBC services leads Engage other service departments (e.g. planning, to poor planning and implementation. quantity surveying, legal, financial, procurement, etc) early in planning process. RISK UNDER CONTROL Failure to gain planning approval for new sites or Ensure early engagement with planning and public modifications to existing sites protection service.

Risk Counter Measure

RISK UNDER CONTROL

Closing some existing school sites might release Ensure this is considered appropriately in the land for housing creating demand for more calculations for those options it may apply to. school places not accounted for. RISK UNDER CONTROL Capital build not properly costed and goes over TCBC team has delivered 4 major projects in the last budget. 12 months to budget. Activity overseen by council‘s Capital Programme Board. RISK UNDER CONTROL Insufficient capacity for future demand. TCBC team reviewing all future possible planned housing developments to take them in to account when planning school sizes. Capacity to be actively managed throughout the programme. Post 16 project delays release of funding for Sufficient progress has now been made on Post 16 to Primary and Secondary schools. unlock funding for primary schools. implementation date for new primary schools has been amended. Some residual risk remains on release of funding for secondary schools. On going discussions with DfES officers.

2.6.3 Constraints

The project is subject to the following constraints, some of which may have also been covered in the risk register:

Welsh Government education policies Torfaen County Borough Council education policies Environmental building and planning restrictions Building control BREEAM excellence Staffing and HR issues Future legislation Band A funding approved in principle is £81.6M of which £21.6M was for first 3 primary school projects.

2.6.4 Dependencies

The project is subject to the following external factors which will need to be managed throughout the project life cycle so that issues are properly identified and mitigated or resolved in a timely manner. Some of these have also been mentioned in the risk register and in TCBC‘s funding matrix submission to the 21st Century Programme Team on 28th Feb 2013:

Schools currently undergoing statutory consultation on closure, do actually close so that revenue savings/prudential borrowing and capital receipts can be realised. There is some scope to manage delays to proposed closure dates, but this delay must be minimal if the programme is to be delivered. FBC update: the OBC was submitted, 3 schools are now approved for closure by the Minister. Whilst WG funding is not available until April 2014, the previously communicated programme is reliant on some Council funding being utilised in 2013/14. The Council funding in 2013/14 is counted towards its 50% contribution and it is requested that this is recognised in the Grant Letter when issued. Approval of this FBC and receipt of Grant Letter from WG is now required in September 2014 The final outcome of discussions on Post 16 and secondary school projects (projects 4 to 7), whilst making progress, is still not determined and therefore these elements are subject to change. Current planned date for submission of an OBC for secondary school projects is summer 2014. It is hoped that this will dovetail with reaching a conclusion on Post 16 discussions. It‘s important to understand that revenue savings/prudential borrowing from a secondary school closure form a key part of our funding sources for the overall programme. The exact timing of such a closure will have an impact on the funding matrix and it will need to be reviewed in due course. The Council has decided to press ahead with reorganisation of secondary schools in the south of Torfaen reducing the number of schools by one. Any subsequent impact on 6th forms as a result of the Post 16 project will be addressed in the future. Statutory consultation was carried out between 17th February 2014 and 31st March 2014 and a decision on the proposals is anticipated in the summer term. The timing of the implementation was proposed as September 2015. The funding matrix will be updated should this change. Subsequent business case approvals Planning permission Authority approvals A satisfactory statutory consultation process Ministerial approval by WG where applicable.

3 The Economic Case

3.1 Introduction

In accordance with the Capital Investment Manual and requirements of HM Treasury‘s Green Book (A Guide to Investment Appraisal in the Public Sector), this section of the FBC documents the wide range of options that were considered in response to the potential scope identified within the strategic case.

In the SOP, the long list of options was presented for the whole of the 21st Century Schools Programme and the preferred options identified for each cluster. The OBC examined in detail the options around the 3 prioritised issues identified in section 2.5.5.

Blenheim Road Primary School, condition grade D - Either needs replacing or alternative places need to be established elsewhere in the Fairwater cluster. Llantarnam Primary School, condition grade D - Either needs replacing or alternative places need to be established elsewhere in the Llantarnam cluster. Welsh Medium Primary School capacity – Additional places required to meet current projected shortfall in places of 150 by 2016 in the Welsh Medium cluster.

Therefore only the clusters related to the above issues are addressed from now on in this FBC.

3.2 Critical Success Factors

CSF 1 Business needs The option must satisfy all of the investment objectives presented in Section 2.3 and optimise compliance with these objectives throughout any phased implementation.

CSF 2 Strategic fit The option must fit within TCBC‘s overall strategy for 21st Century Schools.

CSF 3 Benefits optimisation The option must optimise the benefits presented in Section 2.6. Further stakeholder engagement will enable these benefits to be assessed and ranked at the Final Business Case stage.

CSF 4 Potential achievability The option needs to be acceptable to learners, staff, the community and be subject to appropriate consultation. It must be achievable within any critical timeframes related to building condition and providing sufficient places to meet demand or to achieve surplus places targets. (i.e. within the next 2- 3 years).

CSF 5 Potential affordability The Council and Welsh Government must be capable of funding the project, namely the capital and revenue consequences, especially in light of the revised funding criteria. The phasing of proposals will need to optimise the benefits against the expenditure. The financial and non-financial benefits must more than repay the investment.

3.3 Options and Appraisal – Blenheim Road / Fairwater Cluster

3.3.1 Long List - Blenheim Road / Fairwater Cluster

Blenheim Road is in the Fairwater cluster. The other schools in the cluster are Greenmeadow and Coed Eva. The process for going from the long list to the short list was covered in detail in the submission of the original SOP and remains valid. The matrix used for this purpose was included in the OBC. Each option was scored against the investment criteria listed. The options were revisited and reassessed for validity during the production of the OBC. Consequently, they were modified to take account of changes made from the original SOP to the revised SOP to the OBC, the emphasis being on the revised criteria. This OBC appraisal remains valid.

Option 1: Do Nothing (allow status quo to remain)

Option 2: Maintain current no. of schools on current sites keeping existing capacities Blenheim Road – new or major remodel/refurbish Greenmeadow – remodel/refurbish Coed Eva – remodel/refurbish

Option 3: Maintain current no. of schools on current sites adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs. Blenheim Road – new or major remodel/refurbish Greenmeadow - refurbish and establish early years provision Coed Eva -refurbish

Option 4: Maintain current no. of schools, adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs and establish a primary on the comp site. Blenheim Road – new or major remodel/refurbish Greenmeadow - new co-locate on the Comp site and establish early years provision Coed Eva – refurbish

Option 5: Reduce Primaries from 3 to 2 on current sites adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs. Blenheim / Greenmeadow - new on Blenheim site Coed Eva-refurb

Option 6: Reduce Primaries from 3 to 2 adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs and co-locate a primary on the comp site. Blenheim / Greenmeadow - new co-locate on the Comp site Coed Eva-refurb

Upon reviewing the scores in the matrix for each option, it was determined whether the option was ‗discounted‘, ‗possible‘ or ‗preferred‘. The highest scoring option was not necessarily the preferred option as explained.

The following tables show the Long List of options for the Fairwater cluster. A summary of the subsequent options appraisal results and conclusions is provided as well as indicating the preferred way forward.

Options for Fairwater Cluster Finding

1.0 Scope

2.0 Service solutions

Option 5 – Reduce Primaries from 3 to Discounted. Unaffordable for revised criteria. 2 on current sites adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs Option 6 – Reduce Primaries from 3 to Discounted. Unaffordable for revised criteria and long 2 adjusting capacities to meet timescale would mean service failure. catchment needs and co-located on the comp site

3.0 Service delivery

3.1 In-house Preferred 3.2 Outsource Discounted 3.3 Strategic partnership Discounted

4.0 Implementation

4.2 Big bang Discounted - unaffordable 4.3 Phased Preferred – investment in cluster phase across several bands

5.0 Funding

5.1 Private Funding Discounted 5.2 Public Funding Preferred

3.3.2 Short Listed Options - Blenheim Road / Fairwater Cluster

The short list shown within the OBC for Fairwater Cluster / Blenheim Road was as follows: Option 1 - Do Nothing Option 2a - Maintain current no. of schools on current sites keeping existing capacities involving a major refurbishment of Blenheim Road Primary School Option 2b - Maintain current no. of schools on current sites keeping existing capacities involving a new build of Blenheim Road Primary School. Option 3 - Maintain current no. of schools on current sites adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs.

A description of the options along with a SWOT analysis is presented in the following tables:

(See next page)

Option 1 - Do Nothing

Scope Present condition grade shown in brackets would remain the same: Blenheim Road Primary School (C/D) Greenmeadow Primary School (B/C) Coed Eva Primary School (B). Doing nothing would mean the condition, suitability and size of schools would remain the same.

Solution N/A (Possible emergency maintenance work)

Service delivery ‗In-house‘. i.e. the service provision will be delivered by: Torfaen Education Service and Neighbourhood Services. Implementation Phased development, across a number of years, as funding becomes available. Funding Public sources

Strengths Weaknesses none Fails to meet any investment objectives or critical success factors Does not address business need Continues ‗patch and mend‘ approach to school repairs, rather than proper investment, which does not attract WG match funding. No confidence in finding the funding from LA sources for maintenance backlog.

Opportunities Threats More funding available for other clusters Political and local opposition Critical Building Failure

Option 2a - Maintain current no. of schools on current sites keeping existing capacities.

Scope Condition grade shown in brackets would be improved to: Blenheim Road (A/B) Greenmeadow (A/B) Coed Eva (A/B) Capacities remain the same. 420/300/420 respectively. Improved condition of Blenheim Road would pull some back who are travelling out of catchment to other schools in Cwmbran and provide places for future projected demand in the area, including new potential housing.

Solution Blenheim Road – major remodel/refurbish – Band A (£5.7M) Greenmeadow – remodel/refurbish – Band C Coed Eva – remodel/refurbish – Band C Partial disposal of Blenheim Road site for capital receipt. (site is bigger than required)

Service delivery ‗In-house‘. i.e. the service provision will be delivered by: Torfaen Education Service and Neighbourhood Services appointing and managing a main contractor.

Implementation Phased development, across Bands A and C. Funding Public sources

Strengths Weaknesses Addressing the local business need directly Some schools will not see investment until and avoids service failure at Blenheim Road Band C, currently 2023. Meets many investment objectives Disruption for majority of staff and pupils Meets the Critical Success Factors caused by temporarily moving into infant block. Funding for Band A is agreed in principle

Opportunities Threats means three significant capital investments Uncertainty of Band C funding for this cluster. addresses one of the 2 worst condition schools in Torfaen will provide learners with a 21st Century learning environment Potential for land receipt

Option 2b - Maintain current no. of schools on current sites keeping existing capacities.

Scope Condition grade shown in brackets would be improved to: Blenheim Road (A) Greenmeadow (A/B) Coed Eva (A/B) Capacities remain the same. 420/300/420 respectively. New condition of Blenheim Road would pull some back who are travelling out of catchment to other schools in Cwmbran and provide places for future projected demand in the area, including new potential housing.

Solution Blenheim Road – New build, standardised design – Band A (£8.5M) Greenmeadow – remodel/refurbish – Band C Coed Eva – remodel/refurbish – Band C Partial disposal of Blenheim Road site for capital receipt. (site is bigger than required)

Service delivery ‗In-house‘. i.e. the service provision will be delivered by: Torfaen Education Service and Neighbourhood Services appointing and managing a main contractor.

Implementation Phased development, across Bands A and C. Funding Public sources

Strengths Weaknesses Addressing the local business need directly Some schools will not see investment until and avoids service failure at Blenheim Road Band C, currently 2023. Meets many investment objectives Disruption for a minority of staff and pupils Meets the Critical Success Factors caused by temporarily moving into junior block. Funding for Band A is agreed in principle

Option 3 - Maintain current no. of schools on current sites adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs

Scope Condition grade shown in brackets would be improved to: Blenheim Road (A/B) Greenmeadow (A/B) Coed Eva (A/B) Capacities would be reduced to contribute to hitting surplus places target across Torfaen. Blenheim Road would be reduced to 315 in Band A

Solution Blenheim Road – major remodel/refurbish/resize – Band A (£4M) Greenmeadow – remodel/refurbish/resize and establish Early Years– Band C Coed Eva – remodel/refurbish/resize – Band C Partial disposal of Blenheim Road site for capital receipt. (site is bigger than required)

Service delivery ‗In-house‘. i.e. the service provision will be delivered by: Torfaen Education Service and Neighbourhood Services appointing and managing a prime contractor.

Implementation Phased development, across Bands A and C.

Funding Public sources

Strengths Weaknesses Addressing the local business need directly Some schools will not see investment until and avoids service failure at Blenheim Road Band C, currently 2023. Meets many investment objectives Will not meet projected demand for new Meets the Critical Success Factors housing developments Funding for Band A is agreed in principle Would increase number of small schools

The projections and assumptions around pupil numbers on roll (NOR) for Blenheim Road shortlisted options were presented in the OBC.

3.3.3 Benefits Appraisal - Blenheim Road / Fairwater Cluster

The OBC benefits workshop was held on 8th October, 2012, with the following people in attendance: Steve Tong – Project Manager, Education Service Cliff Day – Strategic Capital Projects Manager Mark Horton – Principal Officer, Forward Planning Tony Walker – Assistant Chief Education Officer.

A standard methodology was adopted for the appraisal of the benefits for the shortlisted options and is summarised as follows for clarity: The individual benefits from the SOP were initially reviewed to check relevance. These were updated as reflected in section 2.6 of the OBC. The benefit groups were confirmed as those defined in section 2.6. A weighting was applied to each benefit group, to make a total of 12 points. (after some debate, equal weighting was applied – The team felt that each headline objective/benefit was in fact equally important as the other.) A raw score of between 1 and 5 was then attributed to each option versus how well it delivers the benefit. (1 low, 5 high). We felt a raw score applied in a range 1 to 5, gave sufficient scope to apply meaningful separation between options. The weighting and the raw score numbers were then multiplied together to give a weighted score. These weighted scores were then totalled for each option to give a relative ranking.

The scoring and weights used were similar to those used in the successful development of previous business cases.

The shortlisted options scores were detailed in the OBC and are summarised as follows:

Option No. Option Description Total Weighted Score Benefit Ranking

Option 1 Do Nothing 14 4th

Maintain current no. of schools on Option 2a current sites keeping existing 38 =2nd capacities. Refurbishment Maintain current no. of schools on Option 2b 40 1st current sites keeping existing

capacities. New Build. Maintain current no. of schools on Option 3 current sites adjusting capacities to 38 =2nd meet catchment needs.

The potential cash releasing benefits (CRB) of each option were estimated and are as follows:

Option No. Option Description CRB £ Notes

Option 1 Do Nothing 0

Maintain current no. of schools on Option 2a current sites keeping existing £1M Potential land receipt. capacities. Refurbishment Maintain current no. of schools on Option 2b current sites keeping existing £1M Potential land receipt. capacities. New Build Maintain current no. of schools on Option 3 current sites adjusting capacities to £1M Potential land receipt. meet catchment needs.

3.3.4 Critical Success Factors Appraisal – Blenheim Road

The OBC assessment of how these shortlisted options faired against the Critical Success Factors remains valid and is as follows:

Critical Success Factor Option 1 Option 2a Option 2b Option 3 CSF 1 Business needs poor good Good Good CSF 2 Strategic fit poor good best Fair CSF 3 Benefits optimisation poor good good Good CSF 4 Potential achievability poor good good Good CSF 5 Potential affordability good good good Good

3.3.5 Net present cost analysis – Blenheim Road

In accordance with WG guidelines, investment decisions considered in this section are limited to Blenheim Road School as that is the one planned for the next 3 years in this cluster. A net present cost analysis of the short listed options was carried out in the OBC. The NPC calculations have been updated and are included in Appendix A along with the assumptions made.

The following table shows a summary of the updated findings.

Discounted Cashflow (DCF) Summary Sheet Inc. Optimism Bias Excl. Optimism Bias

Option No. Option Name/Description NPC (£m) EAC (£m) NPC (£m) EAC (£m)

Option 1: Do Nothing 16.247 0.952 16.209 0.950

Option 2a: Refurb 420 19.880 1.165 19.769 1.159

Option 2b: New Build 420 22.564 1.323 22.401 1.313

Option 3: Refurb 315 18.070 1.059 17.993 1.055

DCF = Discounted Cashflow NPC = Net Present Cost EAC = Equivalent Annual Cost

3.3.6 Sensitivity analysis – Blenheim Road

The various options have been subject to a sensitivity analysis. The five scenarios evaluated are set out in the following table.

Table: Sensitivity Scenarios

Sensitivity Analysis Increase or Scenario: Decrease Increase Capital Costs 10% Decrease Capital Costs -10% Increase Revenue Costs 10% Decrease Revenue Costs -10% Decrease Cash Savings -20%

Table : Results of Sensitivity Analysis

Option 1 Option 2a Option 2b Option 3 £000s Ranking (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) Baseline NPCs 16.247 19.880 22..564 18.070 Option 1 = 1 Increase Capital 10% 16.441 20.444 23.396 18.466 Option 1 = 1 Decrease Capital 10% 16.054 19.316 20.018 17.675 Option 1 = 1 Increase Revenue 10% 17.510 20.638 23.322 19.354 Option 1 = 1 Decrease Revenue 10% 14.985 19.122 21.806 16.973 Option 1 = 1 Decrease Cash Savings 20% 16.441 20.054 22.738 18.245 Option 1 = 1

In all cases Option 1 (Do Nothing), has the lowest net present cost (NPC) whilst Option 2b has the highest NPC. The relative ranking of the options does not change under any of the scenarios indicating that there is no sensitivity to changes in capital, revenue and benefits within the ranges specified. In all scenarios the OBC preferred Option 2b maintains a 4th place ranking in terms of net present cost.

3.4 Risk appraisal – Blenheim Road

3.4.1 Methodology – Blenheim Road

A risk appraisal was undertaken in the OBC and remains valid. It involved the following distinct elements: identifying all the possible business and service risks associated with each option assessing the impact and probability for each option calculating a risk score.

The OBC risk workshop was held on 8th October, 2012, with the following people in attendance: Steve Tong – Project Manager, Education Service Cliff Day – Strategic Capital Projects Manager Mark Horton – Principal Officer, Forward Planning Tony Walker – Assistant Chief Education Officer.

3.4.2 Risk scores – Blenheim Road

The risk scores, shown in the table on the following page, are based on assessment of previous similar capital investment projects.

The range of scales used to quantify risk was as follows:

Probability : 1-3, where 1 is least likely and 3 most likely Impact : 1-5, where 1 is least impact and 5 is greatest impact.

The risks of options 2a and 2b were judged to be the same and are shown on the same column. (see next page)

Option 2a/2b: Refurb or new Option 1: Do Nothing Option 3: Refurb Blenheim 315

Risk Scoring – Blenheim Road build Blenheim 420

Risk No Risk Description

Impact Impact Impact

Case Y/N Case Y/N Case Y/N Case

Probability Probability Probability

RiskScore RiskScore RiskScore

OBCEconomic OBCEconomic OBCEconomic Uncertain financial climate may mean that overall WG funding levels may not match the total level of investment required and hence some 1 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N needed investments are not secured by Torfaen and buildings remain in poor condition.

2 Failure to meet all the BREEAM grant conditions may stop the project. 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

Local Authorities now required to provide 50% of funding for project from 3 own resources but Torfaen does not have any cash and therefore may 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

not win any funding

Failure to complete 5 Case Treasury Model and achieve timescales for 4 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N development of project.

5 Failure to get political approval (TCBC) and board level approval. 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

6 Delays in receiving political approval (Ministerial) delays project. 3 5 15 N 2 5 10 N 2 5 10 N

7 Elections could change the political balance of the council. 1 3 3 N 1 3 3 N 1 3 3 N

Schools and public opposition to change, delays or stops some or all 8 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N improvements being realised. (A single objection can stop the process)

Failure of Torfaen to secure necessary funding and therefore deliver 9 nothing to the community will adversely affect Torfaen‘s public reputation 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

and will maintain the status quo of poor buildings.

10 Critical building failure leading to Education service failure. 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N New surplus places targets from the Minister of 10% for Primary and 15% for Secondary by 2015 are aggressive and depend on release of 11 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N capital funds to implement 21st Century Schools projects. They may not be achieved if funding if delayed. Negative effect on pupils‘ Teaching and Learning experience caused by: Shrinking year group sizes in some primary schools leadings to mixed 12 3 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 2 5 10 N year group classes. Limited choices available in some secondary schools

Option 2a/2b: Refurb or new Option 3: Refurb Blenheim Option 1: Do Nothing

Risk Scoring – Blenheim Road build Blenheim 420 315

Y/N

Risk No Risk Description

Impact Impact Impact

Case Case Y/N Case Y/N Case

Probability Probability Probability

RiskScore RiskScore RiskScore

OBCEconomic OBCEconomic OBCEconomic

Delay in 'go-ahead' and funding release at each stage delays delivery of 13 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N transformation.

Shortage of resources and expertise within TCBC to carry out key tasks within the project delays the project. (e.g. dedicated project managers, 14 finance resource to work out demanding future revenue calculations, 1 3 3 N 1 3 3 N 1 3 3 N

architects). This is heightened by the anticipated national cuts in public spending.

Project delayed by statutory undertakings. (e.g. Welsh Water, Bats, FIT 15 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N for Wales, Countryside Alliance, Slow worms)

16 Project delivered late or over-budget due to main contractor. 1 4 4 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N

Insufficient links with other TCBC services leads to poor planning and 17 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N implementation. Failure to gain planning approval for new sites or modifications to existing 18 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N sites Closing some existing school sites might release land for housing 19 1 4 4 N 1 4 4 N 1 4 4 N creating demand for more school places not accounted for.

20 Capital build not properly costed and goes over budget. 1 5 5 Y 1 5 5 Y 1 5 5 Y

21 Insufficient capacity for future demand. 2 4 8 N 1 4 4 N 2 4 8 N

22 Post 16 Project delays funding for Primary and Secondary schools 3 5 15 N 3 5 15 N 3 5 15 N

Totals: 186 131 139

3.4.3 Risk Mitigation Activities – Blenheim Road

This section highlights the mitigation actions for the highest scoring risks in the table.

Uncertain financial climate may mean that overall WG funding levels may not match the total level of investment required and hence some needed investments are not secured by Torfaen and buildings remain in poor condition. Need to ensure Torfaen 21st Century proposals meet all the revised criteria laid out by the Minister and his team. Great care was taken in developing the original and revised SOP and the approach taken led to Band A funding being approved in principle. Therefore, provided the preferred option or an alternative option from the shortlist is adopted (i.e. options 2a, 2b or 3), the risk is mitigated. Option 1 would not meet the criteria. There is a residual risk relating to funding Bands B to D, which would be carried forward to those bands.

Local Authorities now required to provide 50% of funding for project from own resources but Torfaen does not have any cash and therefore may not win any funding Detailed funding plan is now in place for Band A and has been approved by Head of Financial Services. Therefore the risk has been mitigated to a great extent, but the precise phasing of projects is to be closely monitored, representing some residual risk.

Failure to get political approval (TCBC) and board level approval Following council protocols, regular communication sessions are used to brief and consult council members, cabinet and management boards at appropriate decision making points in the project. Ultimately, each 21st Century Schools business case goes before cabinet or council for approval prior to submission to Welsh Government.

Delays in receiving political approval (Ministerial) delays project. Commitment has now been given by Minister to shorten the process from October 2013, with the Local Authority no longer required to seek determination from WG for 3-16 changes should formal objections be received following statutory notices.

Critical building failure leading to Education Service failure TCBC has ensured priorities have been consistently and clearly identified in the business case submissions to date as requested by WG. Provided funding is forthcoming, this risk is under control.

Failure of Torfaen to secure necessary funding and therefore deliver nothing to the community will adversely affect Torfaen‘s public reputation and will maintain the status quo of poor buildings. TCBC has worked hard to ensure timely and attractive proposals have been presented to WG in order to secure funding, with regular feedback sessions with WG. Funding has been approved in principle

for Band A to a total of £81.6M, so this risk is mitigated for Band A. The residual risk is funding for Bands B to D.

Post 16 project delays release of funding for Primary and Secondary schools. This has now been mitigated as WG has confirmed sufficient progress had been made towards the preferred solution of a lower cost, shorter term solution for a refurbished or new college to replace all English medium 6th Forms.

3.4.4 Risk summary – Blenheim Road

All the shortlisted options were assessed terms of risk scores as shown in the previous table and summarised as follows:

Option Risk score Risk ranking (1st = lowest) Option 1 (Do Nothing ) 186 4th Option 2a (Refurb Blenheim 420) 131 = 1st Option 2b (New Blenheim 420) 131 = 1st Option 3 (Refurb Blenheim 315) 140 3rd

Option 1 represents the highest risk and Options 2a, 2b and 3 are similar to each other, with Options 2a and 2b coming out slightly lower risk.

The only risk that can be quantified in terms of a monetary value is: ‗Capital build estimates are not properly costed‘. The standard optimism bias rate for this type of build at FBC stage is 2% and has been applied consistently throughout the NPC calculations.

When the project receives Full Business Case approval, the full risk register will be developed and will split into construction and project risks. This is explained in the Management Case.

3.5 The Preferred Option – Blenheim Road

3.5.1 Results – Blenheim Road

The results of investment appraisal are as follows:

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Option 2a Option 2b Option 3 Option 1 Evaluation Results Refurb New Refurb Do Nothing Blenheim 420 Blenheim 420 Blenheim 315

Capital Cost 1st 3rd 4th 2nd

Non-cash Benefits 4th = 2nd 1st = 2nd

Cash Benefits 4th =1st =1st =1st

Critical Success Factors 4th 2nd 1st 3rd

NPC 1st 3rd 4th 2nd

Risk appraisal 4th = 1st =1st 3rd

Overall ranking 4th 2nd 1st 3rd

The key findings are as follows:

Option 1 – Do Nothing This option ranks the lowest of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, does not meet the critical success factors and is the highest risk option. It represents the current approach to maintenance of ‗patch and mend‘ with no firm prospect of funding. If funded, it would only enable refurbishment back to original condition and not allow the school and education provision to be remodelled to modern standards. Whilst it is the option with the lowest NPC it is also the option least likely to deliver the desired benefits and secure the best outcome for learners of Torfaen.

Option 2a - Refurbish Blenheim Road 420 places This option ranks joint 2nd out of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, is a good match against the critical success factors and is the joint lowest risk option. It addresses one of the 2 worst condition schools in Torfaen and fits with the strategic plan to provide significant capital investment in all three of the schools in this cluster. It also gives the potential for land receipt as there is scope to dispose of part of the existing site which is larger than required, even for a 420 place school. Whilst on its own it does not contribute to a reduction in surplus places it is expected to draw pupils back from other schools in Cwmbran (outside the cluster) which in future funding bands will be reorganised. It will therefore also contribute to reducing the excessive number of car journeys caused by the ‗school run‘. In isolation, it is the option with the 2nd highest NPC, but as part of the wider strategy for school reorganisation across the whole programme it indirectly contributes to estimated annual revenue savings of £1.5M and it is likely to deliver all of the desired benefits. It secures the long term suitability and sustainability of the school with sufficient capacity for all future planned and possible housing developments in the area.

Option 2b – New Build Blenheim Road 420 places This option ranks 1st out of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, is the best match against the critical success factors and is the joint lowest risk option. It addresses one of the 2 worst condition schools in Torfaen and is part of a strategic plan to provide significant capital investment in all three of the schools in this cluster. It also gives the potential for land receipt as there is scope to dispose of part of the existing site which is larger than required, even for a 420 place school. Whilst on its own it does not contribute to a reduction in surplus places it is expected to draw pupils back from other schools in Cwmbran (outside the cluster) which in future funding bands will be reorganised. It will therefore also contribute to reducing the excessive number of car journeys caused by the ‗school run‘. In isolation, it is the option with the highest NPC as is expected for this ‗do most‘ option, but as part of the wider strategy for school reorganisation across the whole programme it indirectly contributes to estimated annual revenue savings of £1.5M and it is likely to deliver all of the desired benefits. It secures the long term suitability and sustainability of the school with sufficient capacity for all future planned and possible housing developments in the area.

Option 3 Refurbish Blenheim Road 315 places This option ranks joint 2nd out of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, ranks 2nd in terms of meeting the critical success factors and ranks 3rd in terms of risk. It addresses one of the 2 worst condition schools in Torfaen and is part of a strategic plan to provide significant capital investment in all three of the schools in this cluster. It also gives the potential for land receipt as there is scope to dispose of part of the existing site which is larger than required. In the short term (duration of Band A) it makes a significant contribution to a reduction in surplus places and it is expected to draw pupils back from other schools in Cwmbran (outside the cluster) which, in future funding bands, will be reorganised. It will therefore also contribute to reducing the excessive number of car journeys caused by the ‗school run‘. In isolation, it is the option with a mid-ranked NPC as is expected for an ‗intermediate‘ option, but as part of the wider strategy for school reorganisation across the whole programme it contributes to estimated annual revenue savings of £1.5M and it is likely to deliver most of the desired benefits. It secures the long term suitability and sustainability of the school, but there is a risk that it will not provide sufficient capacity for all future possible housing developments in the area.

3.5.2 Conclusion – Blenheim Road

The preferred option from the OBC appraisal above was Option 2b, new build replacement of Blenheim Road Primary School, keeping capacity the same at 420. Although it had the highest NPC, it scored 1st in terms of derived benefits, was the option with the joint lowest risk score and was affordable within the Band A set of projects. However, following the OBC submission, Welsh Government did not feel that the case for a new 420 place school was justified as it does not want to sustain a potential increase in surplus places, compared to a reduction in surplus places in this cluster that a 315 place school would achieve.

Therefore TCBC has agreed to amend the final chosen option to a new build 315 place school. It will still be of a standardised design, similar to the other schools being procured following this FBC approval, but be of a design layout that will enable it to be extended economically in the future, should demand from as yet unconfirmed housing developments in the Local Development Plan dictate. This aspect of future proofing potential expansion of school places, (or conversely the potential reorganisation of other schools in later investment bands should demand fall) was discussed and met with approval by the panel at the Better Business Case Network meeting in Cardiff Bay, February 2014.

This is the solution going forward for procurement in the Commercial Case.

3.6 Options and Appraisal – Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium Cluster

3.6.1 Long List – Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium cluster

Ysgol Panteg is in the Welsh Medium cluster. The other schools in the cluster are Ysgol Cwmraeg Cwmbran and Ysgol Bryn Onnen. The process for going from the long list to the short list was covered in detail in the submission of the original SOP and remains valid. The matrix used for this purpose was included in the OBC. Each option was scored against the investment criteria listed. The options were revisited and reassessed for validity during the production of the OBC. Consequently, they were modified to take account of changes made from the original SOP to the revised SOP to the OBC, the emphasis being on the revised criteria. This OBC appraisal remains valid.

Option 1: Do Nothing (allow status quo to remain)

Option 2: Maintain current number of schools and increase from 3 to 4 should demand continue to rise. Gymraeg Cwmbran – Refurbish and remodel Panteg - new on Avesta site Bryn Onnen – new, on British site. Should demand rise, establish a larger school on Avesta and 4th (or even a 5th) school in a refurbished school vacated in another cluster Possible Variation - Church in Wales

Option 3: Maintain current no. of schools and increase from 3 to 4 should demand continue to rise and on a co-located 3-18 provision Gymraeg Cwmbran – Refurbish and remodel Panteg - new on the Avesta site Bryn Onnen - co-located on the secondary site

Should demand rise, establish a larger school on Avesta and 4th (or even a 5th) school in a refurbished school vacated in another cluster Possible Variation - Church in Wales

Option 4: Maintain current no. of schools and increase from 3 to 4 should demand continue to rise. Gymraeg Cwmbran – Refurbish and remodel Panteg - new on Avesta site Bryn Onnen - in a refurbished George Street Should demand rise, establish a larger school on Avesta and a (or even a 5th) school in a refurbished school vacated in another cluster Possible Variation - Church in Wales

Option 5: Reduce the current number of schools to 2 but increase to 3/4 should demand continue to rise Gymraeg Cwmbran – Refurbish and remodel Panteg/Bryn Onnen - new on Avesta site Should demand rise, establish a larger school on Avesta and 3rd/4th schools in a refurbished school vacated in another cluster Possible Variation - Church in Wales

Option 6: Reduce the current number of schools to 2 but increase to 3/4 should demand continue to rise Gymraeg Cwmbran – Refurbish and remodel Panteg - new on the Avesta site Bryn Onnen – Extend the Avesta site Should demand increase establish a larger school on Avesta and 3rd/4th schools in a refurbished school vacated in another cluster

Option 7: New hybrid. Maintain current number of schools and increase capacity. Gymraeg Cwmbran – Refurbish and remodel Panteg - new on the Avesta site 420 place Bryn Onnen - remodel if no appropriate alternatives available

Option 8: New hybrid. Maintain current number of schools and increase capacity further. Gymraeg Cwmbran – Refurbish and remodel Panteg - new on the Avesta site 525 place Bryn Onnen - remodel if no appropriate alternatives available

Upon reviewing the scores for each option, it was determined whether the option was ‗discounted‘, ‗possible‘ or ‗preferred‘. The highest scoring option was not necessarily the preferred option as explained.

The following tables show the Long List of options for the Welsh medium cluster and a summary of the subsequent options appraisal results and conclusions is provided as well as indicating the preferred way forward.

Options for Welsh Medium cluster Finding

1.0 Scope

2.0 Service solutions

Option 8 - New hybrid. Maintain Possible current number of schools and increase capacity further.

3.0 Service delivery

3.1 In-house Preferred 3.2 Outsource Discounted 3.3 Strategic partnership Discounted

4.0 Implementation

4.2 Big bang Discounted - unaffordable 4.3 Phased Preferred – investment in cluster phased across several bands

5.0 Funding

5.1 Private Funding Discounted 5.2 Public Funding Preferred

3.6.3 Short Listed Options - Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium cluster

The short list shown within the OBC for Welsh Medium / Ysgol Panteg was as follows: Option 1 - Do Nothing Option 2 - New hybrid. Maintain current number of schools and increase capacity. Option 3 - New hybrid. Maintain current number of schools and increase capacity further.

A description of the options along with a SWOT analysis is presented in the following tables:

(see next page)

Option 1 - Do Nothing

Scope Present condition grade shown in brackets would remain the same: Ysgol Gymraeg Cwmbran (B/C) Ysgol Bryn Onnen (B/C) Ysgol Panteg (C/D). Doing nothing would mean the condition, suitability and size of schools would remain the same.

Solution N/A (Possible emergency maintenance work)

Opportunities Threats More funding available for other clusters Political and local opposition

Option 7 - New hybrid. Maintain current number of schools and increase capacity.

Scope Condition grade shown in brackets would be improved to: Ysgol Gymraeg Cwmbran (A/B) Ysgol Bryn Onnen (A/B) Ysgol Panteg (A) Capacity of Panteg increases from 157 to 420 to meet expected demand.

Solution Ysgol Panteg (A) - new build – Band A (£8.5M) Ysgol Gymraeg Cwmbran (A/B) - remodel/refurbish – Band B Ysgol Bryn Onnen (A/B) - remodel/refurbish if no appropriate alternatives – Band B

Service delivery ‗In-house‘. i.e. the service provision will be delivered by: Torfaen Education Service and Neighbourhood Services appointing and managing a prime contractor.

Implementation Phased development, across Bands A and B. Funding Public sources

Strengths Weaknesses Addressing the local business need directly Some schools will not see investment until meeting demand for places Sept 2016. Band B, currently 2023. Meets many investment objectives Meets the Critical Success Factors Funding for Band A is agreed in principle

Opportunities Threats means three significant capital investments Uncertainty of Band B funding for this cluster. addresses worst condition Welsh medium school in Torfaen will provide learners with a 21st Century learning environment Potential for land receipt

Option 8: New hybrid. Maintain current number of schools and increase capacity further

Scope Condition grade shown in brackets would be improved to: Ysgol Gymraeg Cwmbran (A/B) Ysgol Bryn Onnen (A/B) Ysgol Panteg (A) Capacity of Panteg increases from 157 to 525 to meet expected demand.

Solution Ysgol Panteg (A) - new build – Band A (£10.5M) Ysgol Gymraeg Cwmbran (A) - remodel/refurbish – Band B Ysgol Bryn Onnen (A) - remodel/refurbish if no appropriate alternatives – Band B

Service delivery ‗In-house‘. i.e. the service provision will be delivered by: Torfaen Education Service and Neighbourhood Services appointing and managing a prime contractor.

Implementation Phased development, across Bands A and B. Funding Public sources

Strengths Weaknesses Addressing the local business need directly Some schools will not see investment until meeting demand for places Sept 2016 and Band B, currently 2023. then significant headroom. Adds to surplus places in the short to Meets many investment objectives medium term. Meets the Critical Success Factors Most expensive option. May be unaffordable. Funding for Band A is agreed in principle

Opportunities Threats means three significant capital investments Band A funding is capped. for this cluster. Uncertainty of Band B funding. addresses worst condition Welsh medium school in Torfaen will provide learners with a 21st Century learning environment Potential for land receipt

The projections and assumptions around pupil numbers on roll (NOR) for Ysgol Panteg shortlisted options were presented in the OBC.

3.6.4 Benefits Appraisal - Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium cluster

A standard methodology was adopted for the appraisal of the benefits for the shortlisted options and is summarised as follows for clarity: The individual benefits from the SOP were initially reviewed to check relevance. These were updated as reflected in section 2.6 of the OBC. The benefit groups were confirmed as those defined in section 2.6. A weighting was applied to each benefit group, to make a total of 12 points. (after some debate, equal weighting was applied – the team felt that each headline objective/benefit was in fact equally important as the other.) A raw score of between 1 and 5 was then attributed to each option versus how well it delivers the benefit. (1 low, 5 high). We felt a raw score applied in a range 1 to 5, gave sufficient scope to apply meaningful separation between options. The weighting and the raw score numbers were then multiplied together to give a weighted score. These weighted scores were then totalled for each option to give a relative ranking.

The scoring and weights used were similar to those used in the successful development of previous business cases. The shortlisted options scores were detailed in the OBC and are summarised as follows:

Option No. Option Description Total Weighted Score Benefit Ranking

Option 1 Do Nothing 16 3rd

New hybrid. Maintain current Option 7 number of schools and increase 38 1st capacity. New hybrid. Maintain current Option 8 number of schools and increase 36 2nd (marginal) capacity further.

The potential cash releasing benefits (CRB) of each option were estimated and are as follows:

Option No. Option Description CRB £ Notes

Option 1 Do Nothing 0

New hybrid. Maintain current Option 7 number of schools and increase £0.15M Potential land receipt. capacity. New hybrid. Maintain current Option 8 number of schools and increase £0.15M Potential land receipt. capacity further.

3.6.5 Critical Success Factors Appraisal – Ysgol Panteg

The OBC assessment of how these shortlisted options fair against the Critical Success Factors remains valid and is as follows:

Critical Success Factor Option 1 Option 7 Option 8 CSF 1 Business needs poor good good CSF 2 Strategic fit poor good fair CSF 3 Benefits optimisation poor good good CSF 4 Potential achievability poor best good CSF 5 Potential affordability good best good

3.6.6 Net present cost analysis – Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium Cluster

In accordance with WG guidelines, investment decisions considered in this section are limited to Ysgol Panteg as that is the one planned for the next 3 years in this cluster. A net present cost analysis of the short listed options was carried out in the OBC. The NPC calculations have been updated and are included in Appendix A along with the assumptions made. The following table shows a summary of the updated findings:

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Discounted Cashflow (DCF) Summary Sheet Inc. Optimism Bias Excl. Optimism Bias

Option No. Option Name/Description NPC (£m) EAC (£m) NPC (£m) EAC (£m)

Option 1: Do Nothing 8.155 0.478 8.149 0.478

Option 7: New 420 17.574 1.030 17.411 1.021

Option 8: New 525 19.992 1.172 19.791 1.160

DCF = Discounted Cashflow NPC = Net Present Cost EAC = Equivalent Annual Cost

3.6.7 Sensitivity analysis – Ysgol Panteg / Welsh Medium Cluster

The various options have been subject to a sensitivity analysis. The five scenarios evaluated are set out in the following table:

Table: Sensitivity Scenarios

Sensitivity Analysis Increase or Scenario: Decrease Increase Capital Costs 10% Decrease Capital Costs -10% Increase Revenue Costs 10% Decrease Revenue Costs -10% Decrease Cash Savings -20%

Table : Results of Sensitivity Analysis

Option 1 Option 7 Option 8 £000s Ranking (£m) (£m) (£m) Baseline NPCs 8.155 17.574 19.992 Option 1 = 1 Increase Capital 10% 8.185 18.406 21.020 Option 1 = 1 Decrease Capital 10% 8.124 16.742 18.964 Option 1 = 1 Increase Revenue 10% 8.931 17.875 20.959 Option 1 = 1 Decrease Revenue 10% 7.378 16.653 19.025 Option 1 = 1 Decrease Cash Savings 20% 8.155 17.600 20.018 Option 1 = 1

In all cases Option 1 (Do Nothing), has the lowest net present cost (NPC) whilst Option 8 has the highest NPC. The relative ranking of the options does not change under any of the scenarios indicating that there is no sensitivity to changes in capital, revenue and benefits within the ranges specified. In all scenarios the OBC preferred Option 7 maintains a 2nd place ranking in terms of net present cost.

3.7 Risk appraisal – Ysgol Panteg

3.7.1 Methodology – Ysgol Panteg

3.7.2 Risk scores – Ysgol Panteg

The risk scores, shown in the table on the following page, are based on assessment of previous similar capital investment projects. The range of scales used to quantify risk was as follows:

Probability : 1-3, where 1 is least likely and 3 most likely Impact : 1-5, where 1 is least impact and 5 is greatest impact.

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Option 1: Do Nothing Option 7: New Panteg 420 Option 8: New Panteg 525

Risk Scoring – Ysgol Panteg

Risk No Risk Description

Economic

Impact Impact Impact

Case Y/N Case Y/N Case Y/N Case

Probability Probability Probability

RiskScore RiskScore RiskScore

OBC OBCEconomic OBCEconomic Uncertain financial climate may mean that overall WG funding levels may not match the total level of investment required and hence some 1 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 3 5 15 N needed investments are not secured by Torfaen and buildings remain in poor condition.

2 Failure to meet all the BREEAM grant conditions may stop the project. 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

Local Authorities now required to provide 50% of funding for project from 3 own resources but Torfaen does not have any cash and therefore may 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 2 5 10 N

not win any funding

Failure to complete 5 Case Treasury Model and achieve timescales for 4 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N development of project.

5 Failure to get political approval (TCBC) and board level approval. 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 2 5 10 N

6 Delays in receiving political approval (Ministerial) delays project. 3 5 15 N 2 5 10 N 2 5 10 N

7 Elections could change the political balance of the council. 1 3 3 N 1 3 3 N 1 3 3 N

Schools and public opposition to change, delays or stops some or all 8 1 5 5 N 2 5 10 N 2 5 10 N improvements being realised. (A single objection can stop the process)

Failure of Torfaen to secure necessary funding and therefore deliver 9 nothing to the community will adversely affect Torfaen‘s public reputation 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 2 5 10 N

and will maintain the status quo of poor buildings.

10 Critical building failure leading to Education service failure. 2 5 10 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N New surplus places targets from the Minister of 10% for Primary and 15% for Secondary by 2015 are aggressive and depend on release of 11 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N capital funds to implement 21st Century Schools projects. They may not be achieved if funding if delayed. Negative effect on pupils‘ Teaching and Learning experience caused by: Shrinking year group sizes in some primary schools leadings to mixed 12 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N year group classes. Limited choices available in some secondary schools

Option 1: Do Nothing Option 7: New Panteg 420 Option 8: New Panteg 525

Risk Scoring – Ysgol Panteg

Risk No Risk Description

Impact Impact Impact

Case Y/N Case Y/N Case Y/N Case

Probability Probability Probability

RiskScore RiskScore RiskScore

OBCEconomic OBCEconomic OBCEconomic

Delay in 'go-ahead' and funding release at each stage delays delivery of 13 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N transformation.

architects). This is heightened by the anticipated national cuts in public spending.

Project delayed by statutory undertakings. (e.g. Welsh Water, Bats, FIT 15 1 4 4 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N for Wales, Countryside Alliance, Slow worms)

16 Project delivered late or over-budget due to main contractor. 1 4 4 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N

Insufficient links with other TCBC services leads to poor planning and 17 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N implementation. Failure to gain planning approval for new sites or modifications to existing 18 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N sites Closing some existing school sites might release land for housing creating 19 1 4 4 N 1 4 4 N 1 4 4 N demand for more school places not accounted for.

20 Capital build not properly costed and goes over budget. 1 5 5 Y 1 5 5 Y 1 5 5 Y

21 Insufficient capacity for future demand. 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

22 Post 16 Project delays funding for Primary and Secondary schools 1 5 5 N 2 5 10 N 2 10 10 N

Totals: 164 132 157

3.7.3 Risk Mitigation Activities – Ysgol Panteg

This section highlights the mitigation actions for the highest scoring risks in the table.

Uncertain financial climate may mean that overall WG funding levels may not match the total level of investment required and hence some needed investments are not secured by Torfaen and buildings remain in poor condition. Need to ensure Torfaen 21st Century proposals meet all the revised criteria laid out by the Minister and his team. Great care was taken in developing the original and revised SOP and the approach taken led to Band A funding being approved in principle. Therefore, provided the preferred option from the shortlist is adopted (i.e. option 7), the risk is mitigated. Option 1 would not meet the criteria. Option 8 would mean diverting funds from another Band A project. There is a residual risk relating to funding Bands B, which would be carried forward to that band.

Local Authorities now required to provide 50% of funding for project from own resources but Torfaen does not have any cash and therefore may not win any funding Detailed funding plan is now in place for Band A and has been approved by Head of Financial Services. Therefore the risk has been mitigated to a great extent (costed on option 7), but the precise phasing of projects is to be closely monitored, representing some residual risk.

Delays in receiving political approval (Ministerial) delays project. Commitment has now been given by Minister to shorten the process from October 2013, with the Local Authority no longer required to seek statutory approval from WG for 3-16 school changes, should formal objections be received following statutory notice publication.

Critical building failure leading to Education service failure TCBC has ensured priorities have been consistently and clearly identified in the business case submissions to date as requested by WG. Provided funding is forthcoming, this risk is under control.

Schools and public opposition to change, delays or stops some or all improvements being realised. (A single objection can stop the process) TCBC Education Service has already positively engaged with the schools and public at appropriate times during the development of the business case. Opposition for the proposals to build a new Welsh medium school was limited, but this will be taken into account during the statutory consultation process should it go forward.

Post 16 project delays release of funding for Primary and Secondary schools. This has now been mitigated as WG has confirmed sufficient progress had been made towards the preferred solution of a lower cost, shorter term solution for refurbished or new college site to replace all English medium 6th Forms.

Insufficient capacity for future demand. Regular surveys are conducted to assist in projections for Welsh medium demand. Option 1 fails to meet demand and Options 7 and 8 provide sufficient capacity, mitigating the risk.

3.7.4 Risk summary – Ysgol Panteg

All the shortlisted options were assessed terms of risk scores as shown in the previous table and summarised as follows: Option Risk score Risk ranking (1st = lowest) Option 1 (Do Nothing ) 164 3rd Option 7 (New Ysgol Panteg 420) 132 1st Option 8 (New Ysgol Panteg 525) 157 2nd

Option 1 represents the highest risk and Option 7 outscores Option 8 by a significant margin.

When the project receives Full Business Case approval, the full risk register will be developed and will split into construction and project risks. This is explained in the Management Case.

3.8 The Preferred Option – Ysgol Panteg

3.8.1 Results – Ysgol Panteg

The results of investment appraisal are as follows:

Option 1 Option 7 Option 8 Evaluation Results Do Nothing New Panteg 420 New Panteg 525

Capital Cost 1st 2nd 3rd

Non-cash Benefits 3rd 1st marginal 2nd marginal

Cash Benefits 3rd =1st =1st

Critical Success Factors 3rd 1st 2nd

NPC 1st 2nd 3rd

Risk appraisal 3rd 1st 2nd

Overall ranking 3rd 1st 2nd

The key findings are as follows:

Option 1 – Do Nothing This option ranks the lowest of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, does not meet the critical success factors and is the highest risk option. It represents the current approach to maintenance of ‗patch and mend‘ with no firm prospect of funding. If funded, it would only enable refurbishment back to original condition and not allow the school and education provision to be remodelled to modern standards. Whilst it is the option with the lowest NPC, it is also the option least likely to deliver the desired benefits and secure the best outcome for learners of Torfaen. It fails to respond to the projected growth in demand for places.

Option 7 – New Ysgol Panteg 420 places This option ranks joint 1st (marginal with Option 8) out of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, is the best match against the critical success factors and is the lowest risk option by a significant margin. It addresses the worst condition Welsh medium primary school in Torfaen and is part of a strategic plan to provide significant capital investment in all three of the schools in this cluster. It also gives the potential for a modest land receipt as there is scope to dispose of the former Griffithstown Infant site which it currently occupies. It secures sufficient places to meet future projected demand. In isolation, it is the option with the mid-range NPC as is expected for this intermediate option, but as part of the wider strategy for school reorganisation across the whole programme it contributes to estimated revenue savings of £1.5M and it is likely to deliver all of the desired benefits. It is affordable in the overall Band A investment period. With reference to Option 8, the school design being proposed is modular and therefore can be extended at a future date when demand and funding dictates. 95

Option 8 – New Ysgol Panteg 525 places This option ranks a close 2nd (marginal with Option 7) out of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, ranks 2nd in terms of critical success factors and risk. It addresses the worst condition Welsh medium primary school in Torfaen and is part of a strategic plan to provide significant capital investment in all three of the schools in this cluster. It also gives the potential for a modest land receipt as there is scope to dispose of the former Griffithstown Infant site which it currently occupies. It secures sufficient places to meet future projected demand, but also offers significant headroom for unforeseeable growth in the longer term. In isolation, it is the option with the highest NPC as is expected for this ‗do most‘ option, but as part of the wider strategy for school reorganisation across the whole programme it contributes to estimated revenue savings of £1.5M and it is likely to deliver most of the desired benefits. However, it remains 2nd choice to the preferred option when considered as part of the overall strategy, as it is not achievable or affordable in Band A and in the short to medium term would increase surplus places.

3.8.2 Conclusion – Ysgol Panteg

The preferred option from the OBC appraisal above was Option 7, new build of Ysgol Panteg on the new site, increasing capacity from 157 to 420 places. Although its NPC is higher than the Do Nothing option, it scores highest in terms of derived benefits, is the option with the lowest risk score and is affordable within Band A set of projects. Following the OBC submission, Welsh Government has confirmed it is in agreement that the case has been made for the new build 420 place school. This is the solution going forward for procurement in the Commercial Case.

3.9 Options and Appraisal – Llantarnam Primary / Llantarnam Cluster

3.9.1 Long List – Llantarnam Primary / Llantarnam Cluster

Llantarnam Primary School is in the Llantarnam cluster. The other schools in the cluster are Nant Celyn Primary and Woodlands Primary. The process for going from the long list to the short list was covered in detail in the submission of the original SOP and remains valid. The matrix used for this purpose was included in the OBC. Each option was scored against the investment criteria listed. The options were revisited and reassessed for validity during the production of the OBC. Consequently, they were modified to take account of changes made from the original SOP to the revised SOP to the OBC, the emphasis being on the revised criteria. This OBC appraisal remains valid.

Option 1: Do Nothing (allow status quo to remain)

Option 2: Maintain current number of schools on current sites, keeping existing capacities 96

Llantarnam Community – new Woodlands – refurbish Nant Celyn - n/a Two Locks Nursery – new

Option 3: Maintain current number of schools on current sites, adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs Llantarnam Community – new Woodlands – refurbish Nant Celyn – adjust catchment size Two Locks Nursery – new

Option 4: Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 on current sites, adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs Llantarnam Community – new Woodlands – refurbish Nant Celyn - adjust catchment, establish early years Two Locks Nursery – close

Option 5: Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3, adjusting capacities to meet catchment needs and co-locate a primary on the comp site Llantarnam Community - new co-located on the secondary site Woodlands – refurbish Nant Celyn – adjust catchment, establish early years Two Locks Nursery – close

Option 6: Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 but increasing capacity to meet catchment needs and co- located a primary on the comp site Llantarnam Community - new 315 place co-located on the secondary site Woodlands – refurbish Nant Celyn – adjust catchment, establish early years Two Locks Nursery – close

Option 7: Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 increasing capacities to meet future demand and co- locate a primary on the comp site Llantarnam Community - new 420 place co-located on the secondary site Woodlands – refurbish Nant Celyn – adjust catchment, establish early years Two Locks Nursery – close

The following tables show the Long List of options for the Llantarnam cluster and a summary of the subsequent options appraisal results and conclusions is provided as well as indicating the preferred way forward.

Options for Llantarnam Cluster Finding

1.0 Scope

2.0 Service solutions

Option 7 - Reduce Primaries from 4 to Preferred 3 increasing capacities to meet future demand and co-locate a primary on the comp site

3.0 Service delivery

3.1 In-house Preferred 3.2 Outsource Discounted 3.3 Strategic partnership Discounted

4.0 Implementation

4.2 Big bang Discounted - unaffordable 4.3 Phased Preferred – investment in cluster phase across several bands

5.0 Funding

5.1 Private Funding Discounted 5.2 Public Funding Preferred

3.9.2 Short Listed Options – Llantarnam Primary / Llantarnam Cluster

The short list shown in the OBC for Llantarnam Cluster / Llantarnam Primary was as follows: Option 1 - Do Nothing Option 6 - Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 but increasing capacity to meet catchment needs and co-located on the comprehensive site. Option 7 - Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 increasing capacities to meet future demand and co- located on the comprehensive site. A description of the options along with a SWOT analysis is presented in the following tables:

(see next page)

Option 1 - Do Nothing

Scope Present condition grade shown in brackets would remain the same: Llantarnam Primary (D) Woodlands (B) Nant Celyn (A) Doing nothing would mean the condition, suitability and size of schools would remain the same. Llantarnam Primary School is in need of replacement. It is life expired, unsuitable and represents a Health and Safety risk.

Solution N/A (Possible emergency maintenance work)

Opportunities Threats More funding available for other clusters Political and local opposition Critical Building Failure

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Option 6 - Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 but increasing capacity to meet catchment needs and co-locate a primary on the comprehensive site

Scope Condition grade shown in brackets would be improved to: Llantarnam (A) Woodlands (A/B) Nant Celyn (A) Capacity of Llantarnam would increase to 315 places to meet current projected demand and therefore be 315/294/420 respectively. Improved condition of Llantarnam would pull some back who are travelling out of catchment to other schools in Cwmbran and provide places for future projected demand in the area based on live birth data.

Solution Llantarnam – New Build 315 place on site of secondary school – Band A (£7.4M) Woodlands – remodel/refurbish – Band C Disposal of Llantarnam Primary School site for capital receipt.

Service delivery ‗In-house‘. i.e. the service provision will be delivered by: Torfaen Education Service and Neighbourhood Services appointing and managing a prime contractor.

Implementation Phased development, across Bands A and C. Funding Public sources

Strengths Weaknesses Addressing the local business need directly Some schools will not see investment until and avoids service failure at Blenheim Road Band C, currently 2023. Meets many investment objectives Meets the Critical Success Factors Funding for Band A is agreed in principle

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Option 7 - Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 increasing capacities to meet future demand and co- locate a primary on the comprehensive site

Condition grade shown in brackets would be improved to: Scope Llantarnam (A) Woodlands (A/B) Nant Celyn (A) Capacity of Llantarnam would increase to 420 places to meet future likely demand and therefore be 420/294/420 respectively. Improved condition of Llantarnam would pull some back who are travelling out of catchment to other schools in Cwmbran and provide places for future projected demand in the area including potential new housing developments. Llantarnam – New Build 420 place on site of secondary school – Band A (£8.5M) Solution Woodlands – remodel/refurbish – Band C Disposal of Llantarnam Primary School site for capital receipt. ‗In-house‘. i.e. the service provision will be delivered by: Service delivery Torfaen Education Service and Neighbourhood Services appointing and managing a prime contractor. Implementation Phased development, across Bands A and C.

Funding Public sources

Strengths Weaknesses Addressing the local business need directly Some schools will not see investment until and avoids service failure at Blenheim Road Band C, currently 2023. Meets many investment objectives Meets the Critical Success Factors Funding for Band A is agreed in principle Will meet current projected demand and provide headroom for future housing developments

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The projections and assumptions around pupil numbers on roll (NOR) for Llantarnam Primary shortlisted options were presented in the OBC.

3.9.3 Benefits Appraisal – Llantarnam Primary / Llantarnam Cluster

The OBC benefits workshop was held on 8th October 2012, with the following people in attendance: Steve Tong – Project Manager, Education Service Cliff Day – Strategic Capital Projects Manager Mark Horton – Principal Officer, Forward Planning Tony Walker – Assistant Chief Education Officer.

A standard methodology was adopted for the appraisal of the benefits for the shortlisted options and is summarised as follows for clarity: The individual benefits from the SOP were initially reviewed to check relevance. These were updated as reflected in section 2.6 of the OBC. The benefit groups were confirmed as those defined in section 2.6. A weighting was applied to each benefit group, to make a total of 12 points. (after some debate, equal weighting was applied. – The team felt that each headline objective/benefit was in fact equally important as the other.) A raw score of between 1 and 5 was then attributed to each option versus how well it delivers the benefit. (1 low, 5 high). We felt a raw score applied in a range 1 to 5, gave sufficient scope to apply meaningful separation between options. The weighting and the raw score numbers were then multiplied together to give a weighted score. These weighted scores were then totalled for each option to give a relative ranking.

Total Weighted Option No. Option Description Benefit Ranking Score

Option 1 Do Nothing 14 3

Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 but increasing Option 6 capacity to meet catchment needs and co- 40 2 locate a primary on the comp site Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 increasing Option 7 capacities to meet future demand and co- 42 1 locate a primary on the comp site.

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The potential cash releasing benefits (CRB) of each option were estimated and are as follows:

Option No. Option Description CRB £ Notes

Option 1 Do Nothing 0

Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 but increasing capacity to meet Option 6 £1.3M Potential land receipt. catchment needs and co-locate a primary on the comp site. Reduce Primaries from 4 to 3 increasing capacities to meet Option 7 £1.3M Potential land receipt. future demand and co-locate a primary on the comp site.

3.9.4 Critical Success Factors Appraisal – Llantarnam Primary

The OBC assessment of how these shortlisted options faired against the Critical Success Factors remains valid and is as follows:

Critical Success Factor Option 1 Option 6 Option 7 CSF 1 Business needs poor good good CSF 2 Strategic fit poor good best CSF 3 Benefits optimisation poor good best CSF 4 Potential achievability poor good good CSF 5 Potential affordability good good good

3.9.5 Net present cost analysis – Llantarnam Primary

In accordance with WG guidelines, investment decisions considered in this section are limited to Llantarnam Primary as that is the one planned for the next 3 years in this cluster. A net present cost analysis of the short listed options was carried out in the OBC. The NPC calculations have been updated and are included in Appendix A, along with assumptions made. The following table shows a summary of the updated findings.

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Discounted Cashflow (DCF) Summary Sheet Inc. Optimism Bias Excl. Optimism Bias

Option No. Option Name/Description NPC (£m) EAC (£m) NPC (£m) EAC (£m)

Option 1: Do Nothing 12.675 0.743 12.647 0.741

Option 6: New 315 18.587 1.090 18.445 1.081

Option 7: New 420 19.803 1.161 19.640 1.151

DCF = Discounted Cashflow NPC = Net Present Cost EAC = Equivalent Annual Cost

3.9.6 Sensitivity analysis – Llantarnam Primary

The various options have been subject to a sensitivity analysis. The five scenarios evaluated are set out in the following table:

Table: Sensitivity Scenarios

Sensitivity Analysis Increase or Scenario: Decrease Increase Capital Costs 10% Decrease Capital Costs -10% Increase Revenue Costs 10% Decrease Revenue Costs -10% Decrease Cash Savings -20%

Table : Results of Sensitivity Analysis

Option 1 Option 6 Option 7 £000s Ranking (£m) (£m) (£m) Baseline NPCs 12.675 18.587 19.803 Option 1 = 1 Increase Capital 10% 12.818 19.312 20.635 Option 1 = 1 Decrease Capital 10% 12.533 17.863 18.971 Option 1 = 1 Increase Revenue 10% 13.727 19.702 20.932 Option 1 = 1 Decrease Revenue 10% 11.624 17.472 18.674 Option 1 = 1 Decrease Cash Savings 20% 12.675 18.814 20.030 Option 1 = 1

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3.10 Risk appraisal – Llantarnam Primary

3.10.1 Methodology – Llantarnam Primary

The OBC risk workshop was held on 8th October 2012, with the following people in attendance: Steve Tong – Project Manager, Education Service Cliff Day – Strategic Capital Projects Manager Mark Horton – Principal Officer, Forward Planning Tony Walker – Assistant Chief Education Officer.

3.10.2 Risk scores – Llantarnam Primary

The risk scores, shown in the table on the following page, are based on assessment of previous similar capital investment projects. The range of scales used to quantify risk was as follows:

Probability : 1-3, where 1 is least likely and 3 most likely Impact : 1-5, where 1 is least impact and 5 is greatest impact.

(see next page)

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Option 1: Do Nothing Option 6: New Llantarnam 315 Option7: New Llantarnam 420

Risk Scoring – Llantarnam Primary

Risk No Risk Description

Impact Impact Impact

Case Y/N Case Y/N Case Y/N Case

Probability Probability Probability

RiskScore RiskScore RiskScore

2 Failure to meet all the BREEAM grant conditions may stop the project. 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

Local Authorities now required to provide 50% of funding for project from 3 own resources but Torfaen does not have any cash and therefore may 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

not win any funding

Failure to complete 5 Case Treasury Model and achieve timescales for 4 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N development of project.

5 Failure to get political approval (TCBC) and board level approval. 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

6 Delays in receiving political approval (Ministerial) delays project. 3 5 15 N 2 5 10 N 2 5 10 N

7 Elections could change the political balance of the council. 1 3 3 N 1 3 3 N 1 3 3 N

Schools and public opposition to change, delays or stops some or all 8 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N improvements being realised. (A single objection can stop the process)

Failure of Torfaen to secure necessary funding and therefore deliver 9 nothing to the community will adversely affect Torfaen‘s public reputation 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N

and will maintain the status quo of poor buildings.

10 Critical building failure leading to Education service failure. 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N New surplus places targets from the Minister of 10% for Primary and 15% for Secondary by 2015 are aggressive and depend on release of 11 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N capital funds to implement 21st Century Schools projects. They may not be achieved if funding if delayed. Negative effect on pupils‘ Teaching and Learning experience caused by: Shrinking year group sizes in some primary schools leadings to mixed 12 3 5 15 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N year group classes. Limited choices available in some secondary schools

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Option 1: Do Nothing Option 6: New Llantarnam 315 Option7: New Llantarnam 420

Risk Scoring – Llantarnam Primary

Risk No Risk Description

Impact Impact Impact

Case Y/N Case Y/N Case Y/N Case

Probability Probability Probability

RiskScore RiskScore RiskScore

OBCEconomic OBCEconomic OBCEconomic

Delay in 'go-ahead' and funding release at each stage delays delivery of 13 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N transformation.

architects). This is heightened by the anticipated national cuts in public spending.

Project delayed by statutory undertakings. (e.g. Welsh Water, Bats, FIT 15 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N for Wales, Countryside Alliance, Slow worms)

16 Project delivered late or over-budget due to main contractor. 1 4 4 N 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N

Insufficient links with other TCBC services leads to poor planning and 17 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N 1 5 5 N implementation. Failure to gain planning approval for new sites or modifications to existing 18 1 5 5 N 2 5 10 N 2 5 10 N sites Closing some existing school sites might release land for housing creating 19 1 4 4 N 2 4 8 N 1 4 4 N demand for more school places not accounted for.

20 Capital build not properly costed and goes over budget. 1 5 5 Y 1 5 5 Y 1 5 5 Y

21 Insufficient capacity for future demand. 2 4 8 N 2 4 8 N 1 4 4 N

22 Post 16 Project delays funding for Primary and Secondary schools 3 5 15 N 3 5 15 N 3 5 15 N

Totals: 196 144 136

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3.10.3 Risk Mitigation Activities – Llantarnam Primary

This section highlights the mitigation actions for the highest scoring risks in the table.

Uncertain financial climate may mean that overall WG funding levels may not match the total level of investment required and hence some needed investments are not secured by Torfaen and buildings remain in poor condition. Need to ensure Torfaen 21st Century proposals meet all the revised criteria laid out by the Minister and his team. Great care was taken in developing the original and revised SOP and the approach taken led to Band A funding being approved in principle. Therefore, provided the preferred option or the alternative option from the shortlist is adopted (i.e. Option 6 or 7), the risk is mitigated. Option 1 would not meet the criteria. There is a residual risk relating to funding Bands B to D, which would be carried forward to those bands.

Delays in receiving political approval (Ministerial) delays project. Commitment has now been given by Minister to shorten the process from October 2013, with the Local Authority no longer required to seek statutory approval from WG for 3-16 school changes, should formal objections be received following statutory notice publication.

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Failure to gain planning approval for new sites or modifications to existing sites Ensure early engagement with planning and public protection service plan to move Llantarnam Primary School to the site of the secondary school.

Post 16 project delays release of funding for Primary and Secondary schools. This has now been mitigated as WG has confirmed sufficient progress had been made towards the preferred solution of a lower cost, shorter term solution for refurbished or new college site to replace all English medium 6th Forms.

3.10.4 Risk summary – Llantarnam Primary

All the shortlisted options were assessed terms of risk scores as shown in the previous table and summarised as follows:

Option Risk score Risk ranking (1st = lowest) Option 1 (Do Nothing ) 196 3rd Option 6 (New Llantarnam 315 place) 144 2nd Option 7 (New Llantarnam 420 place) 136 1st

Option 1 represents the highest risk and Options 7 the lowest risk.

When the project receives Full Business Case approval, the full risk register will be developed and will split into construction and project risks. This is explained in the Management Case.

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3.11 The Preferred Option – Llantarnam Primary

3.11.1 Results – Llantarnam Primary

The results of the investment appraisal are as follows:

Option 6 Option 7 Option 1 Evaluation Results New Build Llantarnam New Build Llantarnam Do Nothing 315 place 420 place

Capital Cost 1st 2nd 3rd

Non-cash Benefits 3rd 2nd 1st

Cash Benefits 3rd =1st =1st

Critical Success Factors 3rd 2nd 1st

NPC 1st 2nd 3rd

Risk appraisal 3rd 2nd 1st

Overall ranking 3rd 2nd 1st

The key findings are as follows:

Option 1 – Do Nothing This option ranks the lowest of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, does not meet the critical success factors and is the highest risk option. It represents the current approach to maintenance of ‗patch and mend‘ with no firm prospect of funding. It is likely to result in critical building failure. If funded, it would only enable refurbishment back to original condition and not allow the school and education provision to be remodelled to modern standards. Whilst it is the option with the lowest NPC it is also the option least likely to deliver the desired benefits and secure the best outcome for learners of Torfaen.

Option 6 - New build 315 place on the site of the secondary school in the cluster This option ranks a close 2nd out of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, ranks 2nd in terms of critical success factors and risk. It addresses one of the 2 worst condition schools in Torfaen and is part of a strategic plan to provide significant capital investment in all of the schools in this cluster. It also gives the potential for land receipt of the existing site, when the school moves to the secondary school site. Whilst on its own it does not contribute to a reduction in surplus places it is expected to draw pupils back from other schools in Cwmbran (outside the cluster) which in future funding bands will be reorganised. It will therefore also contribute to reducing the excessive number of car journeys caused by the ‗school run‘.

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In isolation, it is the option with the mid-range NPC as is expected for this ‗intermediate‘ option, but as part of the wider strategy for school reorganisation across the whole programme it contributes to estimated revenue savings of £1.5M and it is likely to deliver most of the desired benefits. It secures the long term suitability and sustainability of the school, but may not provide sufficient capacity for all future possible housing developments in the area.

Option 7 - New build 420 place on the site of the secondary school in the cluster This option ranks 1st out of the shortlisted options in terms of derived benefits, is the best match against the critical success factors and is the lowest risk option. It addresses one of the 2 worst condition schools in Torfaen and is part of a strategic plan to provide significant capital investment in all of the schools in this cluster. It also gives the potential for land receipt of the existing site, when the school moves to the secondary school site. Whilst on its own it does not contribute to a reduction in surplus places it is expected to draw pupils back from other schools in Cwmbran (outside the cluster) which in future funding bands will be reorganised. It will therefore also contribute to reducing the excessive number of car journeys caused by the ‗school run‘. In isolation, it is the option with the highest NPC as is expected for this ‗upper intermediate‘ option, but as part of the wider strategy for school reorganisation across the whole programme it contributes to estimated revenue savings of £1.5M and it is likely to deliver all of the desired benefits. It secures the long term suitability and sustainability of the school with sufficient capacity for all future planned and possible housing developments in the area.

3.11.2 Conclusion – Llantarnam Primary

The preferred option from the OBC appraisal above was Option 7, new build Llantarnam Primary School on the Secondary school site, increasing capacity to 420. Although it had the highest NPC, it scored highest in terms of derived benefits, was the option with the lowest risk score and is affordable within the Band A set of projects. However, following the OBC submission, Welsh Government did not feel that the case for a new 420 place school was justified as it does not want to sustain a substantial potential increase in surplus places, compared to a moderate increase in surplus places in this cluster that a 315 place school would achieve. Therefore TCBC has agreed to amend the final chosen option to a new build 315 place school. It will still be of a standardised design, similar to the other schools being procured following this FBC approval, but be of a design layout that will enable it to be extended economically in the future, should demand from as yet unconfirmed housing developments in the Local Development Plan dictate. This aspect of future proofing potential expansion of school places, was discussed and met with approval by the panel at the Better Business Case Network meeting in Cardiff Bay, February 2014.

This is the solution going forward for procurement in the Commercial Case.

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4. The Commercial Case

4.1 Introduction

This section of the FBC outlines the proposed deal in relation to the preferred option outlined in the economic case.

4.2 Required services

4.2.1 Introduction

The new schools to be procured are: New 315 place Blenheim Road Primary School on existing site. New 420 place Ysgol Panteg Primary School on a new site in the Griffithstown area. New 315 place Llantarnam Primary School on Llantarnam Secondary School site.

4.2.2 Standardised school design

Torfaen Education Capital Projects Team in collaboration with the council‘s Technical Services Team has decided to adopt a standardised school design approach for this set of 3 builds. As such a common school design concept will be sought through competitive tendering. The benefit of this approach is that savings can be made by using a standardised school design with regard to consultants‘ fees, materials and construction costs when the 3 schools are procured at the same time.

A cost planning exercise completed during the production of the FBC has confirmed that the 3 new schools can be delivered for a ceiling price of £20.5M.

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4.3 The Procurement Process

4.3.1 Procurement Options

The procurement options available to Torfaen CBC are: OJEU notified tender SCAPE SEWSCAP Fully designed scheme SEWSCAP Design & Build

The advantages and disadvantages of using each one are: Procurement Route Advantages Disadvantages OJEU Breadth of design options to select Lengthy process in terms of time. from is wide. Resource intensive in terms of Officer Widest possible competition. time and Contractor time in submitting expressions of interest. Possibility of unsuitable tenderers being allowed to tender. SCAPE Speed of delivery. Single tenderer. Contractor engagement at the earliest Value for money not tested in possible juncture competition Proven model. SEWSCAP Design bespoke to Torfaen Cost of developing the design with Fully designed External Consultants. scheme Less collaborative approach to construction due to not engaging Contractor early in the process. More adversarial form of contracting. SEWSCAP OJEU process undertaken when The opportunity to tender is limited to Design and Build compiling the framework list of those contractors on the framework list. Contractors originally. Less opportunity to create a bespoke Competent Contractors listed. design if selecting a standardised model. Tried and tested processes of appointment. Standardised design options available with the Contractors. Economies to be realised on consultant costs due to standardised design models Early engagement of the Contractor.

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In light of the above table, we have decided to use the SEWSCAP framework procurement process, for a Design and Build scheme.

4.3.2 Short List of Contractors

The SEWSCAP framework is set out in contractor lots based on the value of the contract. This project falls into the lot comprising the following contractors: Carillion Construction Ltd JB Leadbitter & Co Ltd Laing O'Rourke Construction Ltd Morgan Sindall Plc Willmott Dixon Construction Ltd

4.3.3 Selection Criteria

The Preferred Supplier will be selected on the following set of criteria: Programme Resources Engagement of stakeholders Experience Supply chain Community benefits Design Risk register Building Information Modelling BREEAM Adherence to Employer‘s requirements Value added options

The relative weightings of each criterion will be set out in the tender document.

The tender period will be during June and July 2014 and each contractor will have the opportunity to ask questions in the form of individual meetings with TCBC Construction Group during tender workshops. The timetable for the procurement process is explained in the Management Case.

4.3.4 SEWSCAP

Torfaen CBC is part of the South East Wales Consortia (SEWC), which has a regional Framework in place (SEWSCAP) of pre-qualified and suitably experienced building contractors which enables

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participating local authorities to appoint contractors for construction activities in relation to schools and any other public buildings. The contracts allocated under the framework may include refurbishment and/or new build, and may involve single site projects, or groups of sites, including groups involving more than one authority.

The participating Authorities are: Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council Monmouthshire County Council Bridgend County Borough Council Newport City Council Caerphilly County Borough Council Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council Cardiff Council Torfaen County Borough Council Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council Vale of Glamorgan County Borough Council

In addition, the Roman Catholic Arch Diocese of Cardiff, The Monmouth Diocesan Trust and The Church in Wales Diocese of Llandaff also have the opportunity to utilise the framework.

The framework arrangement aims to deliver efficiencies through procurement, working with its stakeholders across South East Wales Region, and applying procurement practice around levers and tools such as: Economies of Scale. Harmonisation of procedures and information. Alignment of priorities and operational activity. Improving sustainability and supply chain management. Added value through community benefits. Management of risk, and improved accountability.

The contracts will also include opportunities for early contractor involvement, which is key to overall timely and cost effective delivery. Our design philosophy, which is in line with sustainable developments, will seek to incorporate prefabricated components to reduce waste and condense construction times.

4.3.5 Community Benefits

Through the framework, this project will promote community participation through the use of: localised labour local tradesmen and SME's locally sourced materials

The following facts and figures provide excellent examples of community benefits achieved from the previous framework projects managed by Torfaen, spanning 8 years and 15 construction projects:

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£66m spend, of which 88% was spent in Wales and 40% spent in Torfaen 829 construction working weeks £2.84 trainees employed per £m spend 59 work placements for socially inactive people £1.83m of community benefits realised including: o Training and recruitment costs o Sponsorship of local sporting clubs o Donation of tools and equipment to schools and community groups o Helping a local volunteer group to install a DDA compliant gate o Events at schools to promote health and safety o Attendance at and sponsorship of community events 84% of waste diverted from landfill 2 schools built to BREEAM Excellent

Torfaen will be aiming to achieve similar community benefits on the new projects covered in this FBC. We will be populating the Value Wales Toolkit with the chosen supplier.

4.4 Agreed risk transfer

This section provides the assessment of how the will be apportioned between the Public and Private sectors for Capital Projects and Services. Under the Framework Agreements for Capital Projects, risks will be passed to the party deemed most appropriate to manage the risk.

FOR CAPITAL PROJECTS

Risk Category Agreed allocation

Public Private/Contractor Shared Design risk 

Construction and development risk 

Transition and implementation risk 

Availability and performance risk 

Operating risk 

Variability of revenue risks 

Termination risks 

Technology and obsolescence risks 

Control risks 

Residual value risks 

Financing risks 

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Risk Category Agreed allocation

Public Private/Contractor Shared Legislative risks 

Other project risks 

FOR SERVICES

Risk Category Potential allocation

Public Private Shared Transport 

Catering 

Building Maintenance 

IT Facilities 

Cleaning 

4.5 Proposed charging mechanisms

Torfaen CBC will make payments with respect to the capital works in accordance with their Standing Orders and Financial Instructions. Contractual payments will accord with contract conditions, with monthly valuations being paid to the contractor. Assessment of final account payment will be subject to review by and agreement of TCBC Neighbourhood Services. Overall technical control of the schemes will be reviewed by the Authority‘s own technical team in liaison with the Framework Contractor‘s team.

Use of Project Bank Account is under review.

4.6 Proposed contract lengths

Construction durations are likely to be around 52 weeks.

4.7 Proposed key contractual clauses

These will be as documented in the conditions of contract of the relevant form of contract. .

4.8 Personnel implications (including TUPE)

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Any staffing and personnel issues will be subject to the established policies and procedures of Torfaen CBC.

4.9 Procurement strategy and implementation timescales

The procurement strategy will embrace the principles of Risk Transfer and will comply with all OJEU Procedures and Standing Orders. A detailed project plan will be developed with the preferred supplier after the appointment has been made. A revised outline plan of anticipated milestones is presented in the Management Case.

4.10 FRS 5 accountancy treatment

FRS 5 shall be applied where applicable. The fundamental principle of FRS 5 is that an entity‘s financial statements should reflect the substance of the transactions entered into.

This requires that the commercial effect of a transaction and any resulting assets, liabilities, gains and losses are shown and that the accounts do not merely report the legal form of a transaction.

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5. The Financial Case

5.1 Introduction

The purpose of this section is to set out the anticipated financial implications of the chosen solution in terms of a cost ceiling (as set out in the economic case section) and the proposed deal (as described in the commercial case). As agreed with DfES officers, upon completion of the tender process, we will advise the winning bid price.

5.2 Impact on the organisation’s income and expenditure account

The payment stream for the scheme over the intended lifespan of the project is shown in the table on the following page.

5.3 Impact on the balance sheet

The balance sheets of Torfaen CBC will be adjusted accordingly in respect of the following assets: New Blenheim Road Primary School New Ysgol Panteg New Llantarnam Primary School

(See next page)

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Table for Section 5.2

Years, years 2019 to 2037 repeat as year 2018 Combined project costs of all 3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 schools Total Cost £m £m £m £m £m £m

Preferred Choice Capital costs 20.500 0.075 0.990 13.606 5.384 0.445 0.000 Revenue costs 48.738 1.812 1.812 1.812 1.953 1.969 1.969 Total 69.238 1.887 4.614 17.230 9.290 4.383 3.938

Notes: 1. Costs are estimated on a current year basis – no allowance has been made for inflation and capital costs are shown net of any tax, such as VAT. 2. A standard 25 year appraisal period has been applied. 3. Revenue costs include lifecycle costs which include maintenance.

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5.4 Overall affordability

In capital terms alone, the proposed cost of the 3 preferred options is £20,500,000 over 3 years. Under the updated criteria, the costs of the 21st Century Schools Programme are now to be shared 50/50 across each scheme in Band A by the LA and WG, whereas the OBC submission assumed 50/50 across the whole of Band A. The funding split for these 3 schools is therefore now WG £10,250,000 and TCBC £10,250,000.

This represents a reduction overall from the OBC of £1,100,000.

TCBC sources of capital funding are provided below as evidence that Band A projects are affordable. Sources include capital receipts, core capital and prudential borrowing. Affordability of subsequent Band A projects will be subject to the dependencies explained in the strategic case.

Funding Source 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Total TCBC £ £ £ £ £ £ Core Capital 75,000 495,000 3,600,000 2,000,000 185,000 6,355,000 Capital Receipts 3,203,000 692,000 3,895,000 Prudential Borrowing 0

WG Grant 495,000 6,803,000 2,692,000 260,000 10,250,000

Total 75,000 990,000 13,606,000 5,384,000 445,000 20,500,000

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6. The Management Case

6.1 Introduction

This section of the FBC addresses the ‗achievability‘ of the scheme. Its purpose, therefore, is to explain in more detail the actions that will be taken to ensure the successful delivery of the scheme in accordance with best practice.

6.2 Programme Management Arrangements

The scheme is an integral part of TCBC‘s 21st Century Schools Programme - Band A, which comprises a portfolio of projects in several phases. These were set out in the revised Strategic Outline Programme, which was approved in principle in December 2011. They were also summarised in section 2.5 of this document.

All major capital projects in Torfaen CBC are overseen by the monthly Capital Programme Board.

The Capital Programme Board: considers the development of the Council‘s capital programme and strategy including 21st Century Schools Programme ensures all schemes developed for member approval are affordable reviews the PIF‘s (grant application proposals) from a financial perspective oversees asset management planning considers wider funding issues and opportunities develops and oversees a robust mechanism for capital receipts realisation considers all our major projects from all aspects, i.e. all issues and risks, not just financial considers all other non-major projects but from a financial perspective.

Membership of the Capital Programme Board comprises: Assistant Chief Executive, Resources (Chair) Head of Financial Services Head of Asset Management Head of Technical Services Head of External Funding Senior representative from each service area.

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6.3 Project Management Arrangements

At the service level, the Education Service operates a fortnightly Education Capital Project Board to oversee its major capital projects chaired by the Head of Access, Engagement and Performance. The Project Manager is responsible for reporting the status of the project and gaining any approvals to proceed at this meeting from the Project Executive. The board collectively performs the role of Project Assurance. The board members are:

6.3.1 Education Capital Project Board Structure

Role / Name Division / Service Responsibilities / Reporting structure Head of Access, Education Service Project Executive and Chair. To make key Engagement and decisions as delegated by the Programme Performance Board. John Tushingham Reports to Chief Education Officer Client Project Managers (1 Forward Planning, Represents the Client at all design and for each capital project) Education Service construction meetings. Mike Martin Manages the Client Fit-out and Transition Cliff Day Group Steve Tong Reports to Head of Access, Engagement and Performance

Head of Technical Services Neighbourhood Services In charge of Technical Services Team Dana Eynon which includes Construction and Maintenance in relation to all council buildings Reports to Chief Officer, Neighbourhood Services. Construction Group Leader Neighbourhood Services Leads the team of Project Managers and Jeremy Holifield Quantity Surveyors running the construction related activities and oversees the appointment and management of the main contractor. Reports to Head of Technical Services Principal Officer Forward Planning, Oversees and advises on the projected Mark Horton Education Service pupils numbers, transport implications and statutory consultation process. Reports to Head of Access, Engagement and Performance Strategic Capital Projects Forward Planning, Oversees and advises on the design and

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Manager Education Service technical specifications of the schools. Cliff Day Reports to Head of Access, Engagement and Performance Lead Finance Officer Capital Corporate Finance Oversees and reports on the capital Sara Dickenson financial implications of the projects. Reports to Head of Financial Services

6.3.2 Project Management Key Roles and Responsibilities

Construction Project Manager, Neighbourhood Services Manages the main contractor delivering the construction project and the Neighbourhood Services Team to deliver the capital build aspect of the project. Liaises with the Client Project Manager. This role will be performed by Adrian Morgan, Principal Project Manager, Construction Group, Neighbourhood Services. Reports to the Construction Group Leader.

Client Project Manager, Education Service Represents the client (Education Service) throughout the design, construction, handover and post completion phases of the project. Manages the Client Fit-out part of the project, including IT 2nd Fix and loose furniture This involves running meetings with the head teacher, IT advisors and SRS (IT provider). Manages the Transition Group whose main purpose is to ensure smooth transition from the existing arrangements to the new school. Reports to the Project Executive and the Education Capital Project Board and works closely with Construction Project Manager in Neighbourhood Services. For Ysgol Panteg this role will be performed by Cliff Day, Strategic Capital Projects Manager, Forward Planning, Education Service. For Blenhiem Road Primary School, this role will be performed by Mike Martin, Project Manager, Forward Planning, Education Service. For Llantarnam Community Primary School, this role will be performed by Steve Tong, Project Manager, Forward Planning, Education Service.

For information on the relevant experience of these key team members, refer to Appendix B.

6.3.3 Transition Plan

The Transition Group has a wide stakeholder group membership as follows in order to ensure the smooth the transition from one school to the next. Meetings frequency ranges from quarterly to monthly, depending on the phase of the project. Membership of this team includes:

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Project Manager, Education (Chair) Head Teacher Chair of Governors Principal Officer, Strategic Human Resources Catering Supervisor Cleaning Supervisor Education Finance Officer (Revenue) Project Manager, Neighbourhood Services Governor Services Inclusion Officer IT Services Manager, SRS Systems Leader, Education Achievement Services

The Education Project Manager chairs the meetings and produces the Transition Plan. The Transition Plan template is shown in Appendix C.

6.3.4 Programme and Project Management Reporting Structure Diagram

Capital Programme Board

Education Capital Project Project Board Assurance

Construction Client Project Manager Project Manager Neighbourhood Education Services

Main Contractor Transition Group

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6.4 Project plan

This is as set out in the following milestone table for the 3 school build projects. Following appointment of the main contractor, detail project plans for each school project will be developed. Dates beyond June 2014 are indicative only to show the relative time periods and are subject to change.

Milestone Activity Date

Consultation Process

End of objection period 6 October 14

Final decision on proposals End October 14

Full Business Case Approval

Write FBC complete

Submit FBC with ceiling price May 14

Anticipated approval of FBC to ceiling price by Welsh Government and issue September 14 of grant letter, which will be subject to Cabinet approving the closure proposals

Design and Construction

Out to tender, (Design and Build) June 14

Contractor appointment Sept/Oct 14

Planning Applications January 15

Planning Approval March 15

Start on site June 15

Completion date June 16

Client fit out July 16

Operational August 16

Post Project review – Construction (PER) October 17

Post Benefits Realisation Evaluation – Education (PIR) October 17

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6.5 Use of special advisers

The FBC has been developed in-house and follows WG and Treasury guidelines. Good use of the Better Business Case Network meetings has also been made.

The following special advisors are being used on this project:

Specialist Area Adviser

Financial Internal

Technical Internal

Procurement Internal / SEWSCAP Framework

Legal Internal

Education South East Wales Education Achievement Service

IT infrastructure and Shared Resource Services equipment

Business assurance Internal and Gateway Review Process

6.6 Arrangements for change and contract management

The strategy employed throughout the development of the Business Case phase has been change through consultation, with sound communication and decision making in place through the Education Project Board and the Capital Programme Board. This will be continued as the projects go forward into the design and construction contract phases. Issue logs will be maintained by the project managers and reported to the Education Capital Project Board and escalated to the Capital programme Board as required.

6.7 Arrangements for benefits realisation

The benefits of the project are presented in Section 2.6. in the new outcomes/benefits table provided by DfES. A copy of the associated benefits register is attached in Appendix D. This sets out who is responsible for the delivery of specific benefits, how and when they will be delivered. This will be developed further when the projects commence.

The progress of this plan will be reported by the Client Project Manager to the Education Project Board.

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6.8 Arrangements for risk management

All projects have an element of risk and there must be a proactive approach to risk management to balance risks against the potential rewards and plan to minimise or avoid them. In developing the economic case, the risk register was applied specifically to the short-listed options. This has now been amended specifically for the chosen solution and is attached at Appendix E. It is effectively the programme level risk register. Upon commencement of each school build project, a separate project risk register will be developed by the team and managed by the Client Project Manager. It will include any relevant risks arising from the construction project, client fit-out or transition plan. It will be reported to the Education Project Board by exception. Any issues that need escalating will go to the Capital Programme Board.

6.9 Arrangements for post project evaluation

The outline arrangements for post implementation review (PIR) and project evaluation review (PER) will be established in accordance with best practice and are as follows.

Post Implementation Review (PIR) These reviews ascertain whether the anticipated benefits have been delivered and are timed to take place one year post operational

Project Revaluation Review (PER) This review ascertains how well the project was managed and whether or not it delivered to expectations. It is timed to take place one year post construction.

Both these reviews feed into the Lessons Learned records.

6.10 Gateway Reviews

Gateway Review 0, Strategic Assessment at programme level was conducted in January 2014. The Delivery Confidence finding was ‗Amber‘ and was summarised on the report as follows:

‗The Review Team finds that the Programme has made good progress in preparing its intentions for procurement and has been primarily focused on the construction of the Outline Business Case for Phase 1B – primary schools in Torfaen.

There has been some lack of clarity regarding the funding and approvals mechanism with Welsh Government leading to a degree of frustration within the Programme Team. There is a passion and energy to progress and a commitment to delivery of a successful outcome for Torfaen.

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Capital build projects within Phase 1B were intended to be complete in time to enable occupation in September 2015. This is now not possible and there is an expectation that 2016 is more likely. Assuming a re-baseline in timeframes in a risk-based manner, successful delivery is entirely feasible. There are a number of aspects to the Programme requiring management attention, but timely resolution should not lead to a cost or time over-run.

Given that the Programme is not merely about buildings, the change aspects and involvement of the Education Advisory Service will be important. The Programme Team in Torfaen has a good track record of previous delivery but the level of concurrent project management in this programme will require the adoption of increased rigour in structured documented methods. This is all within the gift and capability of the team to achieve.‘

The programme team is working through the issues raised and will liaise with the Gateway Review Team following the submission of this FBC to arrange the next review.

6.11 Contingency plans

As identified in the OBC, the contingency plan for failure to gain funding for the project from WG was to revert to the Do Nothing option, with the consequence that none of the benefits detailed in earlier sections of this business case would be achieved and the risk of critical building failure would remain. What has happened since the OBC submission in April 2013 is that the OBC has now been approved, but a time delay of 1 year has now been accounted for in the delivery plan.

The impact on Llantarnam and Blenheim Road primary schools is low, with essential maintenance being extended until the September 2016 implementation date.

The impact on Ysgol Panteg or, more broadly speaking, the shortage of Welsh medium places in the short term is greater and this is now going to be addressed by plans to provide additional temporary accommodation in 2 other locations, from September 2014. This aspect is being managed outside of this project.

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Appendix A – Updated Net Present Cost Analysis

(Separate file/document)

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Appendix B – Team Experience

The relevant experience of the key team members responsible for project delivery is summarised below:

Mike Martin will be performing the role of the Client Project Manager for the Blenheim Road Primary School project. 5 Years experience managing Transition Groups on a number of school amalgamations and new school projects. E.g. Padre Pio RC Primary, Nant Celyn Primary, Blaenavon Heritage VC Primary and Crownbridge Special School. 2 Years experience of acting as Client PM on the new build for Crownbridge Special School, bringing the project to a successful conclusion. Currently acting as the Transition Group project manager on Pontymoile school closure. Has also led on a number projects dealing with Service relocation e.g Hearing Impaired Service.

Cliff Day will act as Client Project Manager for the new primary school at Ysgol Panteg. 35 years experience in design, and project running/project management with the last 12 years in the Education Service at Torfaen leading on school designs for the future, innovations, space planning,specifications and project management. Bsc hons qualified.

Steve Tong will be performing the role of the Client Project Manager for Llantarnam Primary School project. 4 Years experience leading on Torfaen Education ‗5-Case Model‘ business case development. 2 Years experience of acting as Client PM on the new build Blaenavon Heritage VC Primary School, bringing the project to a successful conclusion. Also sat as a member of the Transition group for the same school, which saw the successful amalgamation of 3 schools into 1. Currently acting as the Transition Group project manager on a school closure.

Jeremy Holifield - Construction Group Leader With a Quantity Surveying background from 26 years experience in the construction industry, Jeremy leads the Torfaen in-house, multi-disciplinary construction team of Project Managers, Quantity Surveyors, Building Services Engineers and Technical Officers. He was an integral part of the delivery of Education construction projects under a recently concluded framework, acting as both Principal Quantity Surveyor and Project Manager. Over the 7 year period, the framework delivered such schemes as 2nr new build Primary Schools (total £20M), a Special Educational Needs School (£6.5M), extension and refurbishment of 3nr comprehensive schools (£28M), an adult education centre (£2.5M), the extension to a primary school (£1M) and an office refurbishment (£0.5M). Prior to coming to Torfaen, Jeremy was Project Liaison Manager at North Glamorgan NHS Trust.

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Adrian Morgan - Principal Project Manager, Construction Group Adrian has 42 years experience in construction both in design and project management. Recently, Adrian managed the multi-phased extension and refurbishment of a Welsh Medium Comprehensive School, ensuring continuity of education service delivery throughout. His portfolio with Torfaen includes the construction project management of schemes as diverse as a new Household Waste Recycling Centre to the refurbishment of a Grade 2 listed, 17th Century Manor House.

John Lewis - Principal Quantity Surveyor, Construction Group Over 30 years professional experience within the Design and Construction Industry with a history of successful project delivery on both new build and refurbishment schemes ranging from £100k to £20m in value especially in the Education Sector. Has vast experience in setting up and maintaining Contractor and Consultant Frameworks, both regional and local, and of their operational use specifically in the two stage procurement process.

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Appendix C – Transition Plan Template

(Separate file/document)

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Appendix D – Benefits Register

(Separate file/document)

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Appendix E – Risk Register

(Separate file/document)

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