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Daily Comment Daily Comment By Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Looking for something to read? See our Reading List; these books, separated by category, are ones we find interesting and insightful. We will be adding to the list over time. [Posted: September 3, 2020—9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are generally lower this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is up 1.5% from its last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed down 0.2% from the prior close. Chinese markets were lower, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.6%, and the Shenzhen Composite up 0.8%. U.S. equity index futures are signaling a lower open. We have a new report available, the Q3 2020 Asset Allocation Quarterly Rebalance Chart Book. Every quarter, the Asset Allocation Committee reviews and makes adjustments to our Asset Allocation portfolios, which we detail in the Asset Allocation Quarterly. As a supplement to that report, this video chart book reviews our asset allocation process, details the changes to the portfolios, and offers a deep dive into the macro environment that underlies our portfolio decisions. The macro presentation is a discussion of the economy and the political and geopolitical environment. Going forward, we plan to make this chart book available in the weeks following the quarterly rebalance date for the Asset Allocation portfolios. Perhaps the biggest news this morning is that equity markets are set to open lower. Equities have continued to rally in an orderly fashion, with the major indices setting new record highs. Stocks have been lifted by improving earnings, low interest rates, moderate inflation and expectations of accommodative policy. We lead off with specific comments about the EUR and other reports about the economy and markets. Policy news is next; we cover the Beige Book and ongoing negotiations (or lack thereof) over new stimulus. Foreign news is next, focusing on the fallout from the Navalny poisoning. China news follows, and we close with the pandemic update. Being Thursday, a new Weekly Energy Update is available. Here are the details: The Eurozone strikes back: In a recent WGR (and podcast) on the prospects for a Eurobond, we argued that the issuance of such a bond, which would be backed by the full faith and credit of the member states of the EU, could be a catalyst for a new bear market for the dollar. Given that the dollar is overvalued in terms of purchasing power, the greenback has been ripe for a few years of depreciation, something that should be welcomed by U.S. policymakers. The EUR has seen a “summer of appreciation”; in May, the EUR was trading around $1.08. A couple days ago, it touched $1.20. The move has caught the attention of ECB officials, who worry that the stronger currency will reduce already depressed inflation. But, it often takes a retired official to really say what is worrying governments—in a Bloomberg interview, Jean-Claude Trichet accused the Trump administration of “beggar thy neighbor” currency policies and suggested that the EUR should be at its levels seen earlier in the summer. Trichet’s comments are self-serving; the EUR is still well below our fair value estimate of $1.29 and locking in the EUR below that 20 Allen Avenue, Suite 300 | Saint Louis, MO 63119 | 314.743.5090 www.confluenceinvestment.com 1 level gives Europe a competitive advantage over U.S. exporters. Current officials cannot be so candid, but we suspect Trichet is saying what the EU believes. It wants to remain an export promoter, and a stronger EUR will force Europe to change. This chart shows the current account relative to GDP for Germany and the Eurozone. Since the Eurozone crises of the last decade, Germany has used the Eurozone to increase its current account surplus and has turned the entire Eurozone into a “Germany at large.” A stronger EUR is a threat to this situation. Will these comments change the trend? We doubt it. The EUR is undervalued, and the Eurobond reduces America’s ability to apply economic sanctions. We view yesterday’s comments as an attempt to slow the appreciation, but not enough to reverse it. • The bounce in the dollar hit precious metals prices yesterday. In general, a stronger dollar is bearish for gold. But, if the U.S. is determined to weaken the dollar and the EU resists, we could create a “race to the bottom” in terms of trying to pull domestic demand from each trading bloc, which should be quite favorable for gold. In other words, if no one wants a strong currency, a non-liability backed one, like gold, should benefit. Other economic and market news: • Debt issuance is in (as it should be given current interest rates). The U.S. fiscal debt is projected to reach 100% of GDP next year, and corporate issuance is rising very fast. • For the first time in three decades, Australia is officially in a recession. • In the labor markets, there are increasing reports that furloughed workers are facing permanent layoffs. There is a growing possibility of a “K”-shaped recovery, where some sectors are recovering well and others continue to suffer. This isn’t the first time such divisions have occurred; in the 1980s expansion, we saw what was described at the time to be “rolling recessions.” For example, the oil patch was hit hard by the sharp drop in oil prices in 1986. Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana slumped, but the rest of the country benefited from lower energy prices. This time around, we are seeing less geography and more sector divisions. The Beige Book: The Beige Book is an overview of the economy compiled by the regional Fed districts. It offers a disaggregated view of the economy and can offer some geographic insights 20 Allen Avenue, Suite 300 | Saint Louis, MO 63119 | 314.743.5090 www.confluenceinvestment.com 2 about the state of the economy. In general, the report suggests the recovery continues from the troughs seen in Q2, but the pace does appear to be slowing in most districts. The labor market conditions described above, where some workers are getting back to work while others are facing layoffs, is shown in this report as well. • Congressional leaders remain divided over additional stimulus. Both sides continue to blame the other for the lack of progress. Navalny and other foreign news: Germany has confirmed that traces of Novichok, a nerve agent produced by Russia, has been found in Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader. German doctors have determined that it was a military-grade agent, suggesting that elements of the Russian security apparatus are probably behind the poisoning. The key question now is, “What does the West do about it?” One possibility is that Germany could cancel the Nord Stream 2 project; that outcome would delight Washington and be a blow to Moscow. Such a move would certainly harm relations between Germany and Russia, but it would send a signal to Putin that his actions do carry consequences. We could see U.S. natural gas benefit from the cancellation as it would likely increase demand for American LNG. • Unrest continues in Belarus. The U.S. is backing an EU proposal for new elections. One potential problem for Lukashenko is that the tech sector, which has been an area of growth for the country, is considering relocation. If the companies move, their skilled workers will probably follow. • Bulgaria is also facing civil unrest as protestors have been out in force for the past two months opposing the government of Boyko Borissov. The protests are all about high levels of corruption in this Eastern European nation. • The Brexit negotiations are at loggerheads; the GBP has eased on concerns. The EU is accusing British negotiators of bad faith, but the EU wants to put Britain in a position where it faces all the restrictions of a member without voting rights. A hard Brexit is an increasing possibility; the issue for markets is whether a hard Brexit would matter all that much. There is no doubt the U.K. economy would suffer from a break with the EU. It would see its trade with Europe plummet and the adjustment would be difficult. However, in the long run, the kingdom could develop a new policy course. That would look like the great unknown. But, for the time being, the odds of a hard break are rising. China news: • The State Department has issued new restrictions on Chinese diplomats, who are now required to seek U.S. approval to visit U.S. college campuses. The U.S. is framing this as “reciprocal,” which is generally true; China places restrictions on the freedom of movement of diplomats. The move will weaken relations with China but is consistent with other actions seen this year. • Although no new skirmishes on the China/India frontier were reported overnight, tensions remain high. India has banned more Chinese technology and is building up its forces in the region. Defense ministers of both nations are going to be at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings being held in Russia. The participation could offer a chance to talk, or simply make for an awkward gathering for the rest of the group. 20 Allen Avenue, Suite 300 | Saint Louis, MO 63119 | 314.743.5090 www.confluenceinvestment.com 3 • China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, has been on a charm offensive in Europe. By all accounts, the Europeans are resisting. • Negotiations continue over the fate of TikTok. The sticking point is the algorithms that drive the app. If that software isn’t part of the sale, the value of the company to a non- Chinese owner is lower than otherwise.
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