Dec 2012 OE Threat Assessment: Egypt TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) Complex Operational Environment and Threat Integration Directorate (CTID) [Type the author name] United States Army 6/1/2012 OE Threat Assessment: Egypt Introduction Egypt is located at an important crossroad, both geographically and politically. Physically, the country possesses the land on both sides of the Suez Canal, thus controlling a vital chokepoint for global maritime commerce. Politically, it is still attempting to develop a new constitution and a functioning government since the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak in early 2011. While the country faces many challenges including natural disasters, unemployment, terrorist activity, and drug trafficking, the absence of a stable government that is legitimate in the eyes of its own people overrides all other concerns. Political Egypt’s current political system is in a state of transition that began on 25 January 2011. At that time, the “Arab Spring” manifested in the country in the form of large protests and demonstrations against the government that only grew in size and intensity with each passing day. Long-time President and U.S. ally Hosni Mubarak resigned under pressure on 11 February 2011 and handed power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which immediately dissolved the Egyptian parliament and suspended the constitution. The SCAF put forth an interim constitution, approved by voters and put into force in March 2011, that outlined steps to achieving a new, permanent constitution. The document called for the creation of a constituent assembly to draft the new constitution, and also included reforms such as presidential term limits and an independent judiciary. Elections for a new Parliament were held November 2011-January 2012, and both houses convened shortly thereafter. The presidential election of May-June 2012 resulted in Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, winning the poll and taking office on 30 June 2012. The current Egyptian political system consists of executive, legislative, and judicial branches. The executive is headed by the president, who appoints the prime minister, at least one vice president, and the cabinet. The legislature consists of the 508-seat Majlis al-Sha’b (People’s Assembly) and the 270-seat Majlis al-Shura (Shura Council). 498 members of the former and 180 of the latter are elected; the remainder are appointed by the president. The judiciary includes general courts, special courts such as military courts, and the Supreme Constitutional Court. Four political alliances – each consisting of 3-7 political parties – and seven additional parties currently exist in Egypt. The most pressing issue in the country is political instability. The president and the judiciary are at loggerheads, as are the Islamist parties against the moderate and liberal parties. Examples of these conflicts include the following events: 2 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Egypt • The Supreme Constitutional Court dissolved the People’s Assembly on 14 June 2012, which President Morsi subsequently attempted to reinstate – unsuccessfully – by presidential decree. • The first constituent assembly was also dissolved by the Court, which deemed it to be "unrepresentative.” A second assembly was then appointed, but was later boycotted by moderate and liberal political parties, who viewed it as being dominated by Islamists. • President Morsi issued a decree on 22 November 2012 granting himself new powers and removing the Supreme Constitutional Court’s right to overturn any of his decisions. Popular demonstrations immediately broke out, at one point forcing Morsi to flee the presidential palace. Morsi subsequently annulled the decree on 9 December after continuous protests, some of which turned violent. • The remaining members of the second constituent assembly rushed the completion of a proposed constitution, which is scheduled for a vote on 15 December 2012. Despite repeated requests by opposition members, Morsi has refused to delay the referendum. Moderate and liberal parties are protesting the vote, stating that the proposed constitution is unrepresentative and will impede on the rights of women and minorities. • Thousands of judges went on strike after Morsi’s 22 November decree. As it is judges who oversee popular elections in Egypt, it is possible that the referendum either will not be able to occur due to the refusal of the judiciary to oversee it, or that it will occur despite lack of judicial oversight and then be declared null and void by the courts. As these incidents show, Egypt remains politically unstable nearly two years after the resignation of Mubarak. Depending on the events surrounding the constitutional referendum – still slated for 15 December 2012 as of this writing – there is the real possibility that the country will fall back into fighting and undergo yet another revolution. Military Non-State Paramilitary Forces Battalion of the Martyr Abdullah Azzam The Battalion of the Martyr Abdullah Azzam – not to be confused with the Abdullah Azzam Brigades – is a militant Egyptian Islamist group associated with al Qaeda to the extent that two 3 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Egypt of its aliases are “al Qaeda in the Levant and Egypt” and “al Qaeda in Syria and Egypt.” The group’s goal is to remove non-Muslims and their influence from Middle Eastern Muslim countries. It is best known for sophisticated bomb attacks against popular tourist sites in Egypt, including the simultaneous vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) bombings of multiple Sinai resorts in 2004. Though the group is not known to have committed any attacks after 2005, it was assessed to still be active as recently as 2008. Gama’a al-Islamiya (IG) Also known as Islamic Group or Egyptian Islamic Group, IG was formed in Egypt during the 1970s. Prominent former members include Omar abd ar-Rahman, aka the “Blind Sheikh”, and Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current leader of al Qaeda (AQ). IG’s primary goal is to establish an Islamic state in Egypt. Activities in the 1980s and 1990s included the assassination of then- President Anwar Sadat; the attempted assassination of then-President Hosni Mubarak; town uprisings; attacks on Christians, security forces, government officials, and tourists; and bank/train robberies. In 1997, the group formally announced its affiliation with AQ. An Egyptian crackdown on IG led to a ceasefire in March 1999, which was widely maintained until 2006. The group split in 2006, when Abu Jihad al Masri announced its merger with al Qaeda (AQ). Those primarily outside Egypt stayed with the Abu Jihad faction and AQ, while the majority of members inside Egypt went with Sayyid Imam al Sharif, aka Dr. Fadl, who rejected AQ tactics. The Fadl faction has continued to maintain the ceasefire, and now operates as the Building and Development Party – a legal Egyptian political party. The Abu Jihad faction operates primarily in Egypt, and common TTP include vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED) – including suicide VBIEDs (SVBIEDs) – and small arms attacks against tourist locations such as hotels. Al-Takfir wa al-Hijra Al-Takfir wa al-Hijra (“Excommunication and exodus”) is a group of nebulous origin and identity. Some analysts believe it to be a Sunni Islamist religious group whose members include Ayman al-Zawahiri and the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Others think it is a derogatory name used by Egyptian and other nation’s officials for any militant Islamist group they cannot immediately identify. The group has been linked to or credited with attacks as diverse as the assassination of Anwar Sadat in Egypt in 1981, the attempted assassination of Osama bin Laden in Sudan in 1995, the murder of Theo van Gogh in the Netherlands in 2004, the killing of Iraqi Army recruits in Iraq in 2005, and the rocket-propelled grenade attack on a police building in Egypt in 2011. Additional Groups Groups that have previously been active in Egypt include the Abu Nidal Organization, the Islamic Liberation Organization, and the International Justice Group. While these groups have not been known to have committed any attacks in the past several years, there is insufficient 4 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Egypt information to determine whether or not they are, in fact, still active. Another group, Egyptian Islamic Jihad – aka al-Jihad – merged with al Qaeda in 2001; it has not committed an attack in Egypt since 1995 and it is unknown if the group retains independent attack capability. Any one of these groups has the potential, given the right impetus, to regroup and recommence attacks in the country. Another group, the Muslim Brotherhood, denounced violence in the early 1980s and has since focused on instituting an Islamic government in Egypt via political means. President Morsi and the majority of Egyptian Parliament members belong to this group. Threat Actors Military Functions Mission Command Threat actors may conduct centralized planning, but will conduct decentralized operations. Threat actors will refrain from the use of electronic mediums for most important communication and instead rely upon couriers. While slower, the messenger system prevents the detection of the communication from sophisticated systems. Maneuver Most threat actors will operate on foot or in civilian vehicles to conduct their terrorist missions. INFOWAR All threat groups will attempt to shape the message that the open media gives the people, both internally and externally to the country. RISTA Most threat actors will use human intelligence (HUMINT) as their primary means to gain information. With their supporters scattered throughout the population, the information will eventually get to the threat actors. In planning any type of operation, the threat actors will most likely conduct personal reconnaissance of the target. Fire Support Threat actors in Egypt will have limited means of fire support. If a threat actor has indirect fire support, it will likely come from one or two mortars at most. Protection Threat actors have limited protection since they will travel on foot or in civilian vehicles.