Football Outsiders Almanac 2019: Chiefs Team Chapter
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Kansas City Chiefs 2018 record: 12-4 Total DVOA: 32.9% (1st) 2019 Mean Projection: 9.3 wins On the Clock (0-4): 4% Pythagorean Wins: 11.0 (4th) Offense: 34.2% (1st) Postseason Odds: 56.1% Mediocrity (5-7): 20% Snap-Weighted Age: 26.1 (25th) Defense: 6.9% (26th) Super Bowl Odds: 12.2% Playoff Contender (8-10): 41% Average Opponent: 0.5% (12th) Special Teams: 5.6% (2nd) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 2.2% (8th) Super Bowl Contender (11+): 35% 2018: All offense and no defense makes Patrick something something. 2019: Always harder the second time around. ringing [Patrick] Mahomes along and seeing him Please, put down the pitchforks and torches. “Bdeliver on his potential would be as important as It is very, very difficult to repeat an offensive performance anything else the Chiefs could realistically accomplish this like the Chiefs had in 2018. The unspoken corollary of being season. Though the record may not reflect it right away, the the fifth-best offense in the DVOA era is that teams aren’t able Chiefs are bringing on a better, more exciting identity.” to consistently perform at that high level on a year-after-year —Football Outsiders Almanac 2018 basis. To put up a DVOA above 25.0%, you need to be lucky as well as really good—players having career seasons, a lack “Better and more exciting” makes an excellent subtitle for of key injuries, missing out on December snowstorms, and so the 2018 Chiefs season. It may not quite have ended like fans forth. Those aren’t things that a team can control, and it is very would have hoped, but holy cow, was it a fantastic ride to get difficult to keep that momentum going year after year. there. The 2018 Chiefs were the best team in football. Their Not including the 2018 Chiefs, 28 teams have had an offen- 32.9% DVOA was the highest we’ve ever recorded for the sive DVOA of 25.0% or higher. These teams dropped by an franchise, going back to 1986. They reached their first confer- average of 14.2% DVOA the next season, and 27 out of those ence championship game since 1993, winning their first home 28 teams saw at least some regression. The average DVOA for playoff game in a quarter century. those 28 teams in the following season was 16.8%—generally Their offense thrilled; the most explosive and exciting attack a top-five unit, because we’re talking about some of the best in a year defined by explosive and exciting attacks. The Chiefs offenses we’ve ever seen. But that’s a far cry from 34.2%. had the fifth-best offensive DVOA we have ever recorded; they Three teams have managed to put together consecutive ex- lapped the field in in almost any metric you choose to look at, cellent offensive years, shrugging off the effects of regression especially if you focus on the passing game. And they were led to the mean. The Patriots did it four straight years from 2009 by Patrick Mahomes, the most valuable asset in football. Tak- to 2012, with the 2009 team being the one team to actually ing a first-round quarterback when they were already a playoff see their great offensive DVOA improve. The 1992-93 49ers contender with a perfectly serviceable player like Alex Smith pulled off the feat as well, as did the 2002-04 Chiefs, the last under center was a huge gamble, but it paid off better than any- time Kansas City tried an all-offense, no-defense spectacular. one could possibly have dreamed. Mahomes became just the It’s not inconceivable that Kansas City could join that list with fourth quarterback since the merger to win an MVP award in a smaller-than-average drop-off; it’s easier to stay above that his first two seasons, and the first to do it under the current CBA 25.0% DVOA water line when you’re nearly ten points above put into place in 2011. Analysis from salary cap experts Spo- it. But it’s hard, and it’s rare, and it’s not the only thing that trac put Mahomes’ value on the open market at around $35.2 indicates a potential decline in 2019. million a year; the Chiefs get him for three more seasons at an The Plexiglass Principle, first coined by baseball stats average of just over $4 million. That gives Kansas City a cham- legend Bill James, states that teams which significantly im- pionship window rarely rivalled in the modern NFL. prove (or decline) in one season have a tendency to relapse Yes, the defense was bad, but that just means the Chiefs or bounce back in the next. Progress is generally slow and had a clear area to work on in the offseason. They fired defen- gradual; personnel changes and standard player develop- sive coordinator Bob Sutton and brought in Steve Spagnuolo ment tend not to produce large season-to-season fluctua- to implement his 4-3 defense. Keep the offense up to speed, tions. A large jump indicates that that a significant chunk of crank the defense back in the general direction of league aver- luck was involved, on top of any sustainable on-field gains. age, and you surely have the Super Bowl favorites, right? That doesn’t mean that the team’s underlying talent level Well, maybe not quite the favorites. We still have the Chiefs didn’t improve, or that all the gains were phantom, just that as major contenders in 2019, but just half a rung behind the at least some of the leap can be chalked up to the randomness top trio in the league. In fact, we don’t even have Kansas City present in a 16-game sample size. as favorites in the AFC West, as the Chargers join the Patriots The Chiefs saw their overall DVOA increase by 22.3 per- and Saints atop our DVOA projections. centage points last year. Historically, teams in that 20- to 117 118 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2018 KC DVOA by Week 2019 Chiefs Schedule 120% Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 100% 80% 1 at JAX 7 at DEN (Thu.) 13 OAK 60% 2 at OAK 8 GB 14 at NE 3 BAL 9 MIN 15 DEN 40% 4 at DET 10 at TEN 16 at CHI 20% 5 IND 11 at LAC (Mon./Mex.) 17 LAC 0% 6 HOU 12 BYE -20% -40% -60% 30-point increase range have lost between a third and half of -80% those gains the season after (Table 1). About 40 percent of -100% them fall right back to where they started, erasing essentially all their gains from the year prior. Last season, three teams had entered the 20/20 club—teams with at least a 20.0% DVOA and a 20-point improvement from the year before. All three Because the Chiefs’ improvement came alongside Ma- of them (Saints, Rams, and Vikings) had a lower DVOA last homes taking the reins from Smith, there’s reason to believe season. It wouldn’t be unprecedented if the Chiefs topped the Kansas City can fight off some of that regression. Teams that DVOA charts again in 2019, but they almost certainly will saw a 20.0% DVOA increase without swapping quarterbacks come back towards the pack at least somewhat. saw their DVOA fall by 13.0% the year after. Teams that saw that increase while replacing the man under center only fell Table 1. Plexiglass 6.8%. Mahomes replacing Smith, Smith replacing Cassel, Trent Green replacing Elvis Grbac—Chiefs fans have seen, Bounces, 1987-2017 time and time again, just how much an upgrade at quarterback can do for the franchise as a whole. DVOA Win Pct of Pct of DVOA A season like Mahomes’ 2018 doesn’t come along every Teams Change Change Teams Teams Change year. Mahomes didn’t just lead the league in DYAR; he had Y+1 Y+1 Improving Declining the highest DYAR for someone 25 or under we’ve ever re- +30% or better 44 -9.0% -1.1 25.0% 75.0% corded (Table 2). That does come with an asterisk as we do +20% to 30% 84 -10.3% -1.9 26.2% 73.8% not yet have full play-by-play to analyze Dan Marino’s 1984 +10% to +20% 170 -5.9% -1.0 35.9% 64.1% MVP year yet, but outside of that, we have never seen a quar- 0% to +10% 169 -0.3% +0.3 46.7% 53.3% terback dominate at such a young age like Mahomes—and it’s -10% to 0% 205 +1.1% +0.4 51.2% 48.8% not like the top of that table is filled with a bunch of one-and- -20% to -10% 142 +3.5% +0.1 59.2% 40.8% done flukes, either. To make matters even juicier for Chiefs -30% to -20% 83 +11.0% +2.3 77.1% 22.9% fans, Mahomes’ 2,039 DYAR shattered the record for most -30% or worse 48 +14.5% +2.2 83.3% 16.7% DYAR in a first year as a starter. It was a hell of a debut for 2017’s first-round pick. It’s not all doom and gloom, mind you. Two of those three 20/20 club members were the Saints and Rams, who had 13- Table 2. Best Passing win seasons and played each other in the NFC Champion- ship Game. When you start high enough, even a season of DYAR, 25 and Under regression leaves you among the contenders.