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Home , Alex Okafor, Anthony Hitchens, Austin Reiter, Breeland Speaks, Cameron Erving, Charvarius Ward

2018 record: 12-4 Total DVOA: 32.9% (1st) 2019 Mean Projection: 9.3 wins On the Clock (0-4): 4% Pythagorean Wins: 11.0 (4th) Offense: 34.2% (1st) Postseason Odds: 56.1% Mediocrity (5-7): 20% -Weighted Age: 26.1 (25th) Defense: 6.9% (26th) Odds: 12.2% Playoff Contender (8-10): 41% Average Opponent: 0.5% (12th) Special Teams: 5.6% (2nd) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 2.2% (8th) Super Bowl Contender (11+): 35%

2018: All offense and no defense makes Patrick something something.

2019: Always harder the second time around.

ringing [Patrick] Mahomes along and seeing him Please, put down the pitchforks and torches. “Bdeliver on his potential would be as important as It is very, very difficult to repeat an offensive performance anything else the Chiefs could realistically accomplish this like the Chiefs had in 2018. The unspoken corollary of being season. Though the record may not reflect it right away, the the fifth-best offense in the DVOA era is that teams aren’t able Chiefs are bringing on a better, more exciting identity.” to consistently perform at that high level on a year-after-year —Football Outsiders Almanac 2018 basis. To put up a DVOA above 25.0%, you need to be lucky as well as really good—players having career seasons, a lack “Better and more exciting” makes an excellent subtitle for of key injuries, missing out on December snowstorms, and so the 2018 Chiefs season. It may not quite have ended like fans forth. Those aren’t things that a team can control, and it is very would have hoped, but holy cow, was it a fantastic ride to get difficult to keep that momentum going year after year. there. The 2018 Chiefs were the best team in football. Their Not including the 2018 Chiefs, 28 teams have had an offen- 32.9% DVOA was the highest we’ve ever recorded for the sive DVOA of 25.0% or higher. These teams dropped by an franchise, going back to 1986. They reached their first confer- average of 14.2% DVOA the next season, and 27 out of those ence championship game since 1993, winning their first home 28 teams saw at least some regression. The average DVOA for playoff game in a quarter century. those 28 teams in the following season was 16.8%—generally Their offense thrilled; the most explosive and exciting attack a top-five unit, because we’re talking about some of the best in a year defined by explosive and exciting attacks. The Chiefs offenses we’ve ever seen. But that’s a far cry from 34.2%. had the fifth-best offensive DVOA we have ever recorded; they Three teams have managed to put together consecutive ex- lapped the field in in almost any metric you choose to look at, cellent offensive years, shrugging off the effects of regression especially if you focus on the passing game. And they were led to the mean. The Patriots did it four straight years from 2009 by , the most valuable asset in football. Tak- to 2012, with the 2009 team being the one team to actually ing a first-round when they were already a playoff see their great offensive DVOA improve. The 1992-93 49ers contender with a perfectly serviceable player like pulled off the feat as well, as did the 2002-04 Chiefs, the last under center was a huge gamble, but it paid off better than any- time Kansas City tried an all-offense, no-defense spectacular. one could possibly have dreamed. Mahomes became just the It’s not inconceivable that Kansas City could join that list with fourth quarterback since the merger to win an MVP award in a smaller-than-average drop-off; it’s easier to stay above that his first two seasons, and the first to do it under the current CBA 25.0% DVOA water line when you’re nearly ten points above put into place in 2011. Analysis from salary cap experts Spo- it. But it’s hard, and it’s rare, and it’s not the only thing that trac put Mahomes’ value on the open market at around $35.2 indicates a potential decline in 2019. million a year; the Chiefs get him for three more seasons at an The Plexiglass Principle, first coined by baseball stats average of just over $4 million. That gives Kansas City a cham- legend , states that teams which significantly im- pionship window rarely rivalled in the modern NFL. prove (or decline) in one season have a tendency to relapse Yes, the defense was bad, but that just means the Chiefs or bounce back in the next. Progress is generally slow and had a clear area to work on in the offseason. They fired defen- gradual; personnel changes and standard player develop- sive coordinator Bob Sutton and brought in ment tend not to produce large season-to-season fluctua- to implement his 4-3 defense. Keep the offense up to speed, tions. A large jump indicates that that a significant chunk of crank the defense back in the general direction of league aver- luck was involved, on top of any sustainable on-field gains. age, and you surely have the Super Bowl favorites, right? That doesn’t mean that the team’s underlying talent level Well, maybe not quite the favorites. We still have the Chiefs didn’t improve, or that all the gains were phantom, just that as major contenders in 2019, but just half a rung behind the at least some of the leap can be chalked up to the randomness top trio in . In fact, we don’t even have Kansas City present in a 16-game sample size. as favorites in the AFC West, as the Chargers join the Patriots The Chiefs saw their overall DVOA increase by 22.3 per- and Saints atop our DVOA projections. centage points last year. Historically, teams in that 20- to 117 118 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

2018 KC DVOA by Week 2019 Chiefs Schedule 120% Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 100% 80% 1 at JAX 7 at DEN (Thu.) 13 OAK 60% 2 at OAK 8 GB 14 at NE 3 BAL 9 MIN 15 DEN 40% 4 at DET 10 at TEN 16 at CHI 20% 5 IND 11 at LAC (Mon./Mex.) 17 LAC 0% 6 HOU 12 BYE -20% -40% -60% 30-point increase range have lost between a third and half of -80% those gains the season after (Table 1). About 40 percent of -100% them fall right back to where they started, erasing essentially all their gains from the year prior. Last season, three teams had entered the 20/20 club—teams with at least a 20.0% DVOA and a 20-point improvement from the year before. All three Because the Chiefs’ improvement came alongside Ma- of them (Saints, Rams, and Vikings) had a lower DVOA last homes taking the reins from Smith, there’s reason to believe season. It wouldn’t be unprecedented if the Chiefs topped the Kansas City can fight off some of that regression. Teams that DVOA charts again in 2019, but they almost certainly will saw a 20.0% DVOA increase without swapping come back towards the pack at least somewhat. saw their DVOA fall by 13.0% the year after. Teams that saw that increase while replacing the man under center only fell Table 1. Plexiglass 6.8%. Mahomes replacing Smith, Smith replacing Cassel, Trent Green replacing —Chiefs fans have seen, Bounces, 1987-2017 time and time again, just how much an upgrade at quarterback can do for the franchise as a whole. DVOA Win Pct of Pct of DVOA A season like Mahomes’ 2018 doesn’t come along every Teams Change Change Teams Teams Change year. Mahomes didn’t just lead the league in DYAR; he had Y+1 Y+1 Improving Declining the highest DYAR for someone 25 or under we’ve ever re- +30% or better 44 -9.0% -1.1 25.0% 75.0% corded (Table 2). That does come with an asterisk as we do +20% to 30% 84 -10.3% -1.9 26.2% 73.8% not yet have full play-by-play to analyze ’s 1984 +10% to +20% 170 -5.9% -1.0 35.9% 64.1% MVP year yet, but outside of that, we have never seen a quar- 0% to +10% 169 -0.3% +0.3 46.7% 53.3% terback dominate at such a young age like Mahomes—and it’s -10% to 0% 205 +1.1% +0.4 51.2% 48.8% not like the top of that table is filled with a bunch of one-and- -20% to -10% 142 +3.5% +0.1 59.2% 40.8% done flukes, either. To make matters even juicier for Chiefs -30% to -20% 83 +11.0% +2.3 77.1% 22.9% fans, Mahomes’ 2,039 DYAR shattered the record for most -30% or worse 48 +14.5% +2.2 83.3% 16.7% DYAR in a first year as a starter. It was a hell of a debut for 2017’s first-round pick. It’s not all doom and gloom, mind you. Two of those three 20/20 club members were the Saints and Rams, who had 13- Table 2. Best Passing win seasons and played each other in the NFC Champion- ship Game. When you start high enough, even a season of DYAR, 25 and Under regression leaves you among the contenders. The Chiefs were Year a good team in 2017, so even losing all of last year’s gains Player Year Team Age DYAR DVOA would keep them in playoff contention. And, of course, most Starting teams in the sample set didn’t add the league MVP to their Patrick Mahomes 2018 KC 23 2039 40.1% First starting lineup. 2000 IND 24 1888 38.3% Third While Plexiglass hits everyone, the regression isn’t as se- Dan Marino 1986 MIA 25 1693 29.2% Fourth vere when the improvement comes alongside changes at ei- Peyton Manning 1999 IND 23 1581 34.0% Second ther head coach, quarterback, or both. Kansas City fans should 2000 MIN 23 1352 30.1% First be familiar with that already. The biggest year-to-year im- 2016 DAL 23 1302 31.6% First provement we’ve ever recorded came from the 2013 Chiefs, 1987 CLE 24 1284 36.3% Third who saw their DVOA shoot up 57.6 points. The fact that that 1988 LAR 25 1281 23.6% Second improvement came at the same time and Matt Boomer Esiason 1986 CIN 25 1268 28.6% Second Cassel were replaced by and Alex Smith is not co- 2008 DEN 25 1172 17.0% Second incidental. The 2014 Chiefs did slip back a little bit, but the The previous record for DYAR by a first-year starter belonged franchise has ranked in the top 10 in DVOA every year since. to 28-year-old with 1,586 DYAR in 1999. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 119

A season like that is a tough act to follow. The only quar- is, we must talk about it some, because losing a player of terback to have more than one season at or above Mahomes’ Hill’s skills will have a significant effect on the Chiefs’ pass- 2018 DYAR is Peyton Manning. The only other quarterback ing game. received an indefinite stay on the to have multiple seasons above 2,000 DYAR is . Commissioner’s Exempt List after using corporal punishment It’s not something mere mortals have been able to manage. on his child, but he was indicted by a grand jury; Hill does There’s no reason to expect that Mahomes won’t be among not currently face any criminal charges. More recently, Jimmy the very best quarterbacks in the league this year—our KU- Smith was suspended four games for threatening and emo- BIAK projections have him with the most yards and touch- tionally abusive behaviors, but he didn’t have a college assault downs, and ranked in the top five in DVOA—but a season as conviction on his record; Hill does. Those would seem to be good as his 2018 isn’t something that can be counted on year the ceiling and floor for potential Hill suspensions, and we after year. won’t be able to say much more about it until the commis- Luck might even itself out some in 2019. Mahomes only sioner makes a final say on the matter. One way or another, had 12 on the year, but threw 10 more passes until Hill is cleared to play, the Chiefs will be missing three of that were dropped by defenders per Sports Info Solutions’ their top five receivers from 2018. charting. That tied for the most in the league. Even when you The timing of the Hill news meant that the Chiefs had little take away Mahomes’ one Hail Mary , he finished time and even less certainty when it came to responding at the season with 21 adjusted picks, tied for the most in the a personnel level. They ended up addressing the situation in league and entering the bottom ten in adjusted interception the draft, trading up to take receiver out of rate. If you were going to critique anything about last season, Georgia with their first selection. Hardman was a bit of a reach it would be his decision-making; he trusts his arm enough to at 52, though we were in the middle of a wideout run and throw it into traffic rather than throw the ball away. The end- Hardman was a combine superstar, perhaps just needing an ing to the Rams-Chiefs game is a perfect example; Mahomes MVP-caliber quarterback to turn his speed and quickness into threw an interception to in double coverage actual production. However, it’s easy to imagine, in a world to end the game, rather than tossing it out of bounds and fac- where Hill is still in everyone’s good graces, that the Chiefs ing second-and-10. He spent most of last season not getting would have used their first pick on defensive help, as they did burned for poor decisions. We’re not saying he’s due for a with their subsequent three picks. boatload of picks in 2019, just that his exceptional luck when The Chiefs did bring in a bunch of defensive talent this off- making those bad decisions isn’t a sustainable skill. season. Virginia safety and Western Illinois Mahomes’ supporting cast also got a little bit weaker over defensive were excellent Day 2 picks. the offseason. Mitch Morse is gone to Buffalo. Chris Conley’s Free agent was once arguably the top safety departure leaves a question mark at the third receiver position. in the league and now is another year removed from his torn The Chiefs’ offense did get worse when Kareem Hunt was cut ACL. Frank Clark and came over in trades after multiple off-field assault accusations, although they lost to provide a pass rush, as did free agent . That’s a more from his receiving value than his rushing value. Car- pretty good group of additions, an excellent start to a rebuild- los Hyde has been brought in to compete with Damien Wil- ing process. liams there, but neither is the game-changer Hunt can be. And The trouble is, the Chiefs also saw a significant amount of then… talent go out. , , , Steven Just before draft day, disturbing reports broke about Tyreek Nelson, and are all gone, so it’s not a case of the Hill and an investigation into child abuse of his three-year-old Chiefs simply adding talent to their defense for 2019; they’re son, complete with a disturbing audio release. Hill categori- replacing a lot of players who have been significant contribu- cally denies the child abuse claims but does not deny spanking tors. The Chiefs added more talent than they lost, especially his child with a belt. At time of writing, the police investiga- when you factor in the switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 front. That tion into the matter is not active, but the Child Protection Ser- doesn’t mean it was a case of addition by subtraction by get- vices investigation and an existing family court case both still ting rid of so many of last year’s starters; it’s a step back that’s are. Hill was suspended by the team from offseason activities hopefully obscured by multiple steps forward. but appears set to re-join the team for training camp. The NFL Adding talent to the defense, coupled with some simple re- has not yet indicated if, and for how long, Hill will be sus- gression back towards the mean, gives Chiefs fans two rea- pended. It’s a mess of a situation with disturbing elements all sons for expecting their defense to be notably better in 2019. around, and it’s not approaching anything like a clear conclu- Our projections have them as a below-average unit, which sion as of press time.1 would still be an improvement over the past couple seasons. The entire situation and the NFL’s delay on ruling on Hill’s Expecting them to be much better than that, however, doesn’t punishment, is frustrating and disturbing on a wide number really stand up to scrutiny. of levels, the least important of which is the implications on One argument some have made in favor of the defense is Kansas City’s offensive projection. Still, as distasteful as it how it improved down the stretch. They may have ranked

1 According to reporting at press time, the most likely suspension is four games, which would result in Kansas City losing roughly one-third of a win off its mean projection. 120 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

26th with a 6.9% DVOA overall, but by the end of the year, the nuances of the new system. New defensive coordinators they were firmly in the middle of the pack in weighted DVOA rarely provide instant success unless they are named “Wade at 2.5%. That’s something to build on going forward, right? Phillips.” The Chiefs are unlikely to be better defensively in Well, maybe not. There is no indication that having a better 2019 because of their scheme; improvement will come from weighted DVOA than total season DVOA carries over to the the new talent added and positive regression. next year, especially when it’s not accompanied by an obvious To be clear, we still expect the Chiefs to be among the top sparking factor like a rookie entering the starting lineup. The teams in the league. We expect that their offense will still be season-long stats are better to look at when projecting future explosive and exciting, just not quite at the level it was last success, and the season-long stats for the Chiefs were bad. season. We expect that their defense will be improved, just The other argument is that Spagnuolo is going to come in not to the level where it makes up for the offensive regression. and fix all of Sutton’s issues, getting more out of the players We would not be remotely surprised if the 2019 season ends that remain and employing a better, more aggressive strat- with Andy Reid standing in Hard Rock Stadium, finally lift- egy. Spagnuolo’s defense is definitely very different from ing the Lombardi that has been so elusive throughout his ca- Sutton’s, for reasons that go far beyond the change to an reer. We’ve been negative and nitpicky throughout this essay, even front. Sutton’s defenses were often criticized for be- because finding flaws in the Chiefs’ offense requires picking ing too complex; Spagnuolo’s defenses are more straight- nits. forward, with easier-to-understand roles and assignments on But we have the Chiefs as a top team, and not the top team, any given play. He tends to favor more exotic blitzes, and a and that’s a significant difference. Vegas has the Chiefs as greater number of them than Sutton utilized. You’ll see more odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl this year, and we just zone coverage under Spags, with more corners and safeties can’t get on board with that. There’s every reason to believe joining in on the pass rush. It’ll be different, at the very least, that the Chiefs will be in the championship conversation for and that’s something. years to come, but we can’t quite put them at the very top of But it takes time for a new to put his the league for 2019. stamp on a team. It takes a year or two for the right personnel to get into place, and for existing players to truly understand Bryan Knowles

2018 Chiefs by Week Trends and Splits Wk vs. W-L PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank 1 at LAC W 38 28 362 541 +2 60% 44% 19% 36% Total DVOA 34.2% 1 6.9% 26 2 at PIT W 42 37 449 475 -1 65% 78% 19% 6% Unadjusted VOA 33.1% 1 6.1% 24 3 SF W 38 27 384 406 0 6% 32% 30% 4% Weighted Trend 30.6% 1 2.5% 17 4 at DEN W 27 23 446 385 +1 4% 30% 23% -3% Variance 7.7% 22 3.6% 2 5 JAX W 30 14 424 502 +3 24% 15% 1% 10% Average Opponent -0.9% 11 0.6% 14 6 at NE L 40 43 446 500 -1 29% 10% 10% 28% 7 CIN W 45 10 551 239 0 64% 45% -29% -9% Passing 62.9% 1 4.7% 12 8 DEN W 30 23 340 411 +1 19% 22% 1% -3% Rushing 11.0% 4 9.8% 32 9 at CLE W 37 21 499 388 0 114% 119% 9% 4% First Down 20.0% 4 4.3% 22 10 ARI W 26 14 330 260 +2 17% 23% 6% 1% Second Down 43.9% 1 -0.3% 16 11 at LAR L 51 54 546 455 -3 37% 31% 1% 7% Third Down 51.0% 1 25.1% 29 12 BYE 13 at OAK W 40 33 469 442 +2 14% 41% 24% -4% First Half 42.4% 1 1.7% 20 14 BAL W 27 24 442 321 0 -12% 18% 10% -20% Second Half 25.6% 1 12.2% 28 15 LAC L 28 29 294 407 +2 53% 29% -11% 12% 16 at SEA L 31 38 419 464 -2 14% 21% 26% 19% Red Zone 40.0% 1 5.6% 21 17 OAK W 35 3 409 292 +3 52% 14% -38% 1% Late and Close 29.6% 2 6.1% 25 18 BYE 19 IND W 31 13 433 266 0 2% 12% -15% -26% 20 NE L 31 37 290 524 +2 25% 24% -2% -1% KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 121 Five-Year Performance

Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk W W AGL AGL Age Age Age 2014 9-7 10.1 9.4 353 281 -3 10.4% 10 5.0% 12 1.3% 19 6.7% 3 36.0 20 62.8 27 26.6 19 26.6 20 25.7 26 2015 11-5 11.2 11.4 405 287 +14 25.2% 5 11.7% 6 -11.6% 6 2.0% 9 26.3 13 28.6 18 25.8 28 27.4 5 25.8 19 2016 12-4 10.1 9.7 389 311 +16 13.5% 6 2.9% 13 -2.8% 14 7.8% 1 33.2 14 66.1 30 25.9 26 26.5 16 25.1 31 2017 10-6 10.0 10.0 415 339 +15 10.6% 10 15.9% 4 10.7% 30 5.3% 4 43.1 21 36.9 18 26.3 26 27.1 5 25.9 16 2018 12-4 11.0 13.1 565 421 +11 32.9% 1 34.2% 1 6.9% 26 5.6% 2 36.5 16 24.3 9 26.0 27 26.2 15 25.7 18

2018 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups KC Offense KC Offense vs. Opponents KC Defense KC Defense vs. Opponents Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA 11 61% 7.1 46.7% 32% Base 16% 6.1 33.5% 51% Base 23% 6.5 16.7% 11 71% 6.0 3.6% 12 27% 7.3 40.0% 34% Nickel 55% 6.8 33.8% 37% Nickel 61% 5.9 -2.3% 12 10% 6.6 23.2% 21 6% 6.2 19.4% 50% Dime+ 19% 8.3 72.9% 15% Dime+ 15% 6.5 36.0% 21 10% 6.8 24.2% 22 3% 4.3 33.8% 59% Goal Line 1% 0.5 -15.0% 22 5% 6.6 27.3% 01 2% 8.7 20.3% 10% 13 2% 3.3 -54.3%

Strategic Tendencies Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk Runs, first half 30% 31 Form: Single Back 83% 12 Rush 3 11.2% 10 4 DB 23% 17 Play action 29% 7 Runs, first down 41% 27 Form: Empty Back 9% 12 Rush 4 66.7% 18 5 DB 61% 18 Avg Box (Off) 6.09 28 Runs, second-long 26% 23 Pers: 3+ WR 63% 23 Rush 5 17.2% 15 6+ DB 15% 13 Avg Box (Def) 6.22 19 Runs, power sit. 52% 22 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 30% 6 Rush 6+ 4.9% 18 CB by Sides 86% 9 Offensive Pace 29.92 6 Runs, behind 2H 21% 26 Pers: 6+ OL 1% 24 Int DL Sacks 46.2% 3 S/CB Cover Ratio 22% 28 Defensive Pace 29.66 3 Pass, ahead 2H 51% 13 Shotgun/Pistol 81% 1 Second Level Sacks 8.7% 30 DB Blitz 5% 29 Go for it on 4th 1.55 13

Kansas City led the league with 163 penalties; no other team was above 150. The Chiefs were first in defensive penalties and second in offensive penalties.  The Chiefs were much less likely to run in short-yardage power situations compared to the year before, with 52 percent (22nd) runs last year but 74 percent (first) in 2017.  Running on second-and-long is usually a terrible strategy, but it was a great one for the Chiefs in 2018. They led the league with 39.4% DVOA and 6.8 yards per carry on these runs.  Kansas City had the league’s largest (opposite) DVOA difference between play-action and not using play- action. But this gap came mostly because the Chiefs were just so good on all pass plays. Kansas City’s 74.8% DVOA without play-action was double any other offense; their 43.4% DVOA with play-action still ranked sixth.  Kansas City threw the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage on 22.8 percent of passes, third-most in the league. They had the league’s best DVOA on these passes and ranked fourth with 10.9 average yards after the catch. But again, Kansas City was good at everything. On passes beyond the line of scrimmage, only Seattle had a better DVOA and only San Francisco and Pittsburgh had more average yards after the catch.  Another place where the Chiefs offense excelled: with an empty backfield they ranked second with both 9.1 yards per play and 82.7% DVOA.  Oh, and the Chiefs had an obscene 11.2 yards per play and 168.3% DVOA on running back screens; they were tied for third in how frequently they used the play.  The one thing the Chiefs had trouble with on offense? They ranked just 25th in DVOA running the ball on third or fourth down.  Patrick Mahomes had a league- leading 13.1 net yards per play against a three-man pass rush—over 4 yards higher than any other offense—even though the Chiefs also led the league in pass pressure allowed against three-man rushes (43 percent).  Kansas City was the only team which ran zero plays all year without a tight end on the field.  Kansas City used dime personnel on defense roughly one- third as often as they did the year before.  The Chiefs defense was excellent against screens, seventh with -14.9% DVOA against screens and third with -76.5% DVOA against running back screens.  An example of how time of possession doesn’t necessarily correlate with winning: Kansas City ranked 27th in the NFL with an average of 28:51 time of possession per game. 122 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Passing Receiving Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C% P.Mahomes 2031 39.9% 607 4910 8.1 6.8 66.4% 50 11 T.Hill 387 23.8% 137 87 1479 17.0 6.1 12 64% S.Watkins 161 24.1% 55 40 519 13.0 6.0 3 73% C.Conley* 48 -1.0% 52 32 334 10.4 4.4 5 62% Rushing D.Robinson 68 13.5% 33 22 288 13.1 5.3 4 67% Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc T.Kelce 196 11.5% 150 103 1336 13.0 5.5 10 69% K.Hunt* 134 9.1% 181 840 4.6 8 0 55% D.Harris* -14 -15.6% 25 12 164 13.7 6.3 3 48% S.Ware* 38 9.0% 51 246 4.8 2 0 45% B.Bell 1 -5.0% 11 8 67 8.4 4.8 0 73% Dam.Williams 79 26.4% 50 257 5.1 4 1 62% N.Sterling -8 -22.8% 8 6 47 7.8 4.8 0 75% P.Mahomes 39 3.0% 47 276 5.9 2 1 -- K.Hunt* 198 79.4% 35 26 378 14.5 13.0 7 74% T.Hill 89 29.7% 21 154 7.3 1 0 -- Dam.Williams 74 33.9% 24 23 160 7.0 9.3 2 96% Dar.Williams -1 -10.2% 13 44 3.4 0 0 62% S.Ware* 85 56.1% 23 20 224 11.2 12.3 0 87% S.Watkins 3 -31.0% 5 52 10.4 0 1 -- A.Sherman 48 77.7% 9 8 96 12.0 7.0 1 89% C.Hyde -18 -11.0% 172 588 3.4 5 2 39% C.Hyde -51 -73.3% 16 10 33 3.3 5.9 0 63%

Offensive Line Player Pos Age GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run RT 30 16/16 1045 5 5.0 18 5 Mitch Morse* C 27 11/11 678 4 0.0 0 1 Eric Fisher LT 28 16/16 1042 8 4.5 16 5 Laurent Duvernay-Tardif RG 28 5/5 331 5 0.0 2 0 LG 27 14/13 830 12 2.0 14 5 C 28 11/4 265 0 1.0 2 1 Andrew Wylie RG 25 16/10 687 2 2.0 6 2 Jeff Allen* LG 29 10/4 224 2 0.5 4 1

Year Yards ALY Rank Power Rank Stuff Rank 2nd Lev Rank Open Field Rank Sacks ASR Rank Press Rank F-Start Cont. 2016 3.91 4.10 17 59% 21 18% 10 1.04 27 0.57 22 32 5.7% 14 21.0% 5 23 32 2017 4.66 4.14 12 82% 1 18% 8 1.23 9 1.17 2 37 6.7% 17 31.4% 18 18 24 2018 4.66 4.37 16 72% 4 18% 13 1.27 18 1.01 11 26 5.4% 5 33.2% 24 24 28 2018 ALY by direction: Left End: 2.67 (30) Left Tackle: 5.97 (2) Mid/Guard: 4.29 (20) Right Tackle: 5.64 (2) Right End: 3.95 (20)

Kansas City’s high ranking in adjusted sack rate is slightly inflated by how good Patrick Mahomes was. The Chiefs allowed just 16 sacks on blown blocks, but had 65 blown pass blocks in total. That’s one sack per four blown blocks, the fifth-highest rate in the league.  Mitchell Schwartz surprisingly ranked very high with 23 blown blocks, the third-highest total among right tackles. That goes well against his public perception, but it’s mostly the result of one bad day. Ten of those blown blocks came against Baltimore in Week 14, as Matt Judon and routinely beat him around the edge. Apart from that, he mostly lived up to his All-Pro billing, with an 86 percent pass-block win rate per ESPN.  While Schwartz was a first-team All-Pro, he ended up staying at home during weekend. Instead, it was Eric Fisher who earned a nod as the Chiefs’ tackle going to Orlando. Schwartz was certainly a better player than Fisher was, but Fisher has improved significantly over the past few seasons, going from top-pick bust to a solid, if unspectacular, player.  Cameron Erving had 15 flags thrown against him last season, second-most in the league. He ranked 94th out of 107 interior linemen with a blown block every 43.7 snaps. He is, by far, the weakest link on the line; rookie Andrew Wylie was better last season and may end up taking the job from him.  Wylie got his snaps while replacing Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, who broke his leg in October. The return of LDT, M.D., at RG should be OK for the KC OL.  With Mitch Morse gone to Buffalo, journeyman Austin Reiter will slide into the starting center spot. He started four games, allowing three blown blocks and a sack. That’s more of each than Morse gave up all year.

Defensive Front Overall vs. Run Pass Rush Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt Allen Bailey* 30 DE 16 847 37 4.2% 59 34 12 8 28 89% 4 1.8 22 6.0 4 25 0 Chris Jones 25 DE 16 773 44 5.0% 38 36 27 6 20 65% 74 2.6 58 15.5 15 35 4 23 DT 16 448 35 4.0% -- 29 2 5 35 83% -- 2.5 -- 0.0 0 10 0 27 DT 16 424 47 5.4% -- 30 4 7 41 63% -- 3.0 -- 2.5 1 6 0 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 123

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt Dee Ford* 28 OLB 16 1021 52 6.0% 24 38 21 3 31 68% 63 2.1 35 13.0 18 49 1 Justin Houston* 30 OLB 12 665 38 5.8% 26 29 19 6 20 75% 44 2.4 45 9.0 5 26 1 24 OLB 16 476 24 2.8% 89 11 4 6 16 44% 92 5.1 93 1.5 7 12 0 Emmanuel Ogbah 26 DE 14 806 48 6.2% 16 30 12 5 35 51% 90 3.4 77 3.0 5 28 6 Frank Clark 26 DE 16 728 41 5.4% 35 34 21 11 19 79% 28 2.4 47 13.0 13 34 1 Alex Okafor 28 DE 16 656 36 4.5% 56 29 8 3 28 82% 20 2.9 58 4.0 7 25 1

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk AdjYd Rk PD Int 27 ILB 15 944 131 16.0% 18 54 17 13 82 48% 81 5.0 80 0.0 3 3 37 32% 76 8.4 68 0 0 26 ILB 16 582 87 10.0% 56 33 6 15 72 42% 87 4.4 67 0.5 0 2 12 50% 41 7.3 53 1 1 Dorian O'Daniel 25 ILB 16 302 30 3.4% -- 19 5 5 12 75% -- 3.3 -- 0.0 1 2 13 62% 67 4.2 61 1 0 Terrance Smith* 26 ILB 7 172 21 5.5% -- 7 4 4 3 33% -- 5.7 -- 1.0 0 1.5 15 47% -- 7.1 -- 0 0 25 ILB 12 808 78 12.6% 41 46 12 5 43 65% 22 2.8 11 0.0 2 3 34 62% 7 4.1 5 5 3

Year Yards ALY Rank Power Rank Stuff Rank 2nd Level Rank Open Field Rank Sacks ASR Rank Press Rank 2016 4.43 4.72 30 65% 22 18% 19 1.39 30 0.47 5 28 5.1% 26 24.4% 27 2017 4.23 4.35 26 60% 10 20% 23 1.35 31 0.55 5 31 5.8% 26 30.3% 16 2018 4.97 5.28 32 78% 30 15% 27 1.57 32 0.72 12 52 8.0% 7 31.5% 11 2018 ALY by direction: Left End: 6.10 (32) Left Tackle: 4.03 (15) Mid/Guard: 5.19 (31) Right Tackle: 6.55 (32) Right End: 5.25 (26)

With Kansas City shifting from a 3-4 to a 4-3 front, there was plenty of turnover in the front seven this offseason. The Chiefs had to focus on finding players to fit Steve Spagnuolo’s roles, rather than replacing like-for-like, so some of the moves were really lateral ones for 2019.  Dee Ford and Justin Houston are out; Frank Clark is in. While Clark had as many sacks as Ford did in 2018, Ford out-pressured him 48.5 to 33.5, which was a career high for Clark. He’s young and undeniably talented, but 2018 was the first season where it felt like Clark truly hit his potential, hitting his high-water mark in essentially any pass- rushing stat you care to use. Kansas City will need to hope Clark’s Superman turn wasn’t an imaginary tale.  Clark will be joined by Alex Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah in the All-New, All-Different edge rushing corps. Okafor’s a better run-stuffer than pass-rusher, while Ogbah has only managed 12.5 sacks over the past three years. The unit as a group is not improved over Ford/Houston in 2018, though they will likely be better than Ford and Houston would be in a 4-3 front.  By the time you’re reading this, Chris Jones may have joined Clark as the second $20 million man on Kansas City’s front line. Jones was second only to among interior linemen in yards per play allowed, and he ranked near the top of the league in pass pres- sures, finishing second in the league in pass-rush win rate among defensive tackles. A contract extension is an absolute must for the Chiefs’ front office.  Derrick Nnadi showed promise as a run-stuffer as a rookie; had he enough snaps to qualify, he would have been in the top 20 in run stop rate.  Third-round pick Khalen Saunders from Western Illinois should start in a rotational role as he bulks up to NFL size. He dominated double-teams at the FCS level and flashed some of that disrup- tion in the . An interesting one-gap prospect to watch.  Off-ball linebacker was arguably Kansas City’s worst position a year ago, and now they’ll need three of them. Reggie Ragland will presumably take over the Mike role; he had a 26 percent broken tackle rate and the second-worst run stop rate among linebackers a year ago.  Anthony Hitchens was a free-agent bust replacing a year ago; he’ll have to fight for his job against Jets bust Darron Lee, looking for a fresh start in a new system.  Ex-Cowboys reserve was brought in to compete at strongside linebacker. Dorian O’Daniel will fight for the spot; he was the best sideline-to-sideline player the Chiefs had a year ago but should not be asked to read interior gaps. 124 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Defensive Secondary Overall vs. Run vs. Pass Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk Dist Suc% Rk AdjYd Rk PD Int * 26 CB 16 1164 83 9.5% 26 29 11 13 18 22% 72 8.3 63 109 21.0% 54 14.3 59% 12 7.0 28 15 4 24 CB 15 1078 94 11.5% 6 41 19 14 23 39% 45 7.3 54 88 18.3% 36 9.7 47% 60 8.2 52 12 2 * 32 FS 15 1026 82 10.0% 40 19 6 12 29 21% 65 10.8 69 44 9.6% 37 14.4 39% 67 11.4 69 5 2 * 32 CB 15 788 57 7.0% 63 29 10 6 6 17% 75 9.8 72 87 24.8% 69 12.2 60% 10 5.4 4 13 1 Eric Murray* 25 FS 15 702 56 6.9% 63 12 5 4 21 29% 60 9.2 58 30 9.6% 36 13.2 40% 65 8.4 52 2 1 29 SS 7 354 28 7.3% -- 11 2 5 13 38% -- 7.5 -- 16 10.1% -- 9.8 63% -- 6.2 -- 2 1 26 FS 16 262 30 3.4% -- 6 4 5 14 14% -- 7.4 -- 13 11.1% -- 10.5 31% -- 11.2 -- 2 1 23 CB 13 139 21 3.0% -- 5 1 0 4 0% -- 7.5 -- 17 27.4% -- 12.1 35% -- 10.1 -- 3 0 Tyrann Mathieu 27 FS 16 1045 97 11.5% 22 42 17 12 27 59% 9 5.0 13 43 10.3% 48 9.7 53% 30 8.1 50 8 2 27 CB 7 329 24 6.7% -- 11 4 6 8 63% -- 3.3 -- 25 19.7% -- 12.6 60% -- 7.8 -- 4 2

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk 2016 7 0.2% 14 -10.0% 6 -24.9% 3 -9.4% 10 -13.4% 4 3.4% 20 -20.5% 4 2017 23 29.5% 31 -6.0% 14 0.8% 18 2.3% 20 19.6% 26 -5.9% 12 -23.1% 3 2018 12 -9.2% 9 -23.8% 5 21.6% 29 -9.8% 13 -0.1% 16 19.1% 25 7.3% 21

As bad as Kansas City’s defense was last year, the secondary managed to hold its own—they were one of five teams to rank in the top 10 covering both No. 1 and No. 2 receivers. It was just every other aspect of pass coverage that let the Chiefs down last season.  Kendall Fuller is the one returning who qualified for our cornerback charting stats a year ago; he finished just 60th out of 79 in success rate. He’ll once again start outside and then move to the slot in nickel.  Bashaud Breeland will be moving back to the outside for Kansas City after a year in the slot in Green Bay. This is better for his skill set and he has had more success when getting to play the boundary. He’s an up-and-down player who peaks at slightly above average.  Charvarius Ward, who had 139 snaps last season, is penciled in as the other starter at the moment. That lack of experience could give someone like AAF standout a chance to crack the starting lineup.  Tyrann Mathieu will replace Eric Berry as the Chiefs’ standout safety. Like Berry, health issues have limited Mathieu’s snaps, but there are few better at the position when he’s in the lineup. Mathieu can be lined up anywhere on the field, and his fantastic run-thumping presence in the box is likely to be a huge sigh of relief to Kansas City’s overmatched linebackers.  The other safety position will be a toss-up between second-round pick Juan Thornhill (Virginia), 2017 starter Daniel Sorensen, and Jordan Lucas. The only real question is how quickly Thornhill is ready to start; he’s the future. As a converted corner, Thornhill’s ball skills are excellent for a safety, and he can fill in as a cover guy in some big nickel packages without looking totally lost out there.

Special Teams Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank 2016 7.8% 1 0.5 15 0.5 15 5.7 7 11.3 4 20.8 1 3.2 13 2017 5.3% 4 11.8 3 7.1 2 0.0 14 6.2 8 1.7 12 5.0 8 2018 5.6% 2 3.1 11 5.3 3 6.8 4 7.0 4 6.0 3 10.9 5

The Chiefs were one of only three teams to have a positive value in all five aspects of special teams.  ’s field goal attempts provided the least value to Kansas City’s special teams, though part of that is due to the fact that Kansas City was scoring so many . Butker only attempted 27 field goals, down from 42 with the Alex Smith-led 2017 Chiefs. Butker also led the league in gross kickoff value, including a league-leading 72 touchbacks and a pleasingly round 7,000 yards exactly.  is the longest-tenured Chief in franchise history for a reason. Kansas City has had a positive net punting value in our stats in 12 of Colquitt’s 14 seasons, as opposed to just eight out of 18 years before he arrived.  ’s ongoing domestic assault and child abuse allegations also mean Kansas City will have to find someone else to fill in returning punts for however long the inevitable suspension ends up being.  A 4.32-second 40 at his pro day was enough to give a look as a returner, and he delivered; he had the fourth-most kick return value in the league last season.  Charvarius Ward dominated the Chiefs’ coverage teams, with twice as many special teams tackles (12) as anyone else on the club.