Afghanistan Food Security Brief

AFSTT Special Situation Brief—Post 2012/13 Season Vol. 1 Issue 1 August 2012

Key Findings verall, the food security situation was analyzed in16 provinces for August-September 2012. About 296,105 people in Badakhshan and Nuristan are classified in Phase 3- Crisis. An- other 9,234,100 people are classified in Phase 2- Stressed., and 7,383,509 in Phase 1. O In general, the food security status of analyzed provinces has improved considerably in August- September thanks to good rainfall and very good cereal production forecasted to reach 6.3 million MT, the highest in 35 years. Compared to 2011 when rain fed wheat extensively failed, area planted in 2012 is up 25% and yield up 270%. The availability of water and pasture has increased, leading to significant improvement in livestock productivity and value. The harvesting of staple crops are concluding, particularly in lowland areas, wheat prices are on the decline, un- skilled labour wages have significantly increased leading to overall improved food access. Hu- manitarian and Government interventions, such as food, feed and inputs distributions in most 2011 drought affected and recently natural disasters affected areas, control of plant pests and diseases among other contributed to improvements in food security.

However, several shocks, particularly natural disasters, extreme weather, conflict, insecurity, and animal diseases, have contributed to acute food insecurity (stressed or crisis) of hundreds of thousands of people, most still struggling to recover from last year’s ordeals or recurrent droughts and natural disasters. Despite above average rains in many cases that led to significant recovery and Analysis carried out increased value of livestock, the food insecure are not able to benefit from it due to low livestock by the Afghanistan asset holding. The poorest hold few livestock which they have either lost parts of or all through Food Security mortalities, diseases and crisis sales. Insecurity is also disrupting market supply in many prov- Technical Team inces, leading to below normal/potential supply of food and other non-food commodities. (AFSTT) Physical utilization of food is generally inadequate in analyzed areas as evidence shows low access to drinking water, precarious household health environment and poor feeding practices. Inade- Published by the quate food consumption (quantity and quality) is causing malnutrition but poor health status is IPC Coordination / greatly contributing to the condition . Secretariat FAO– Afghanistan Table 1 : General Descriptions of IPC Acute Phases for Areas Dar-Ul-Aman Office Phase General Description More than four in five households are able to meet essential food and non-food needs without 1 Minimal engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies to access food and income, including any reliance

on humanitarian assistance. Contact: Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the [email protected] 2 Stressed following or worse: Minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: Food consumption gaps with high or above usual acute malnutrition; OR 3 Crisis Are marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with accelerated depletion of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps. Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: Large food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition 4 Emergency and excess mortality; OR Extreme loss of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps in the short term. Even with any humanitarian assistance, at least one in five households in the area have an 5 Famine extreme lack of food and other basic needs where starvation, death, and destitution are evi- dent. Afghanistan Food Security Brief Population Table Phase 3 or Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 higher Total Ru- Region Province ral Pop % % # % % # pp % pp # pp % pp # pp # pp # pp pp pp pp pp pp

Laghman 419,300 356,405 85% 62,895 15% - 0% - 0% Eastern Nangarhar 1,225,000 1,163,750 95% 61,250 5% - 0% - 0% Nuristan 140,900 70,450 50% 35,225 25% 35,225 25% - 0% - 0% 35,225 25 Balkh 794,900 715,410 90% 79,490 10% - 0% - 0% Jawzjan 403,500 363,150 90% 40,350 10% - 0% - 0% orthern Samangan 341,000 289,850 85% 51,150 15% - 0% - 0% Sari Pul 491,100 392,880 80% 98,220 20% - 0% - 0%

orth Takhar 812,200 771,590 95% 40,610 5% - 0% - 0% Eastern Badakhshan 869,600 260,880 30% 347,840 40% 260,880 30% - 0% - 0% 260,880 30 Ghor 650,500 520,400 80% 130,100 20% - 0% - 0% Western Hirat 1,280,100 1,088,085 85% 192,015 15% - 0% - 0%

Central Bamyan 413,500 330,800 80% 80,200 20% - 0% - 0% Highlands Day Kundi 435,000 348,000 80% 87,000 20% - 0% - 0% Nimroz 131,700 101,409 77% 30,291 23% - 0% - 0% Southern Uruzgan 323,900 259,120 80% 64,780 20% - 0% - 0% South Paktya 501,900 351,330 80% 100,380 20% - 0% - 0% Eastern Total 9,234,100 7,383,509 80% 1,504,296 16.3% 296,105 3.2% - 0% - 0% 296,105

In Crisis: Nuristan

About 25% of the population in Nuristan are classified to be in Phase 3- Crisis from August to September 2012 . The populations in this province faced several shocks this season, including avalanches with devastating effects on lives and livelihoods in Mandol district, human diseases outbreaks, notably measles in Wama districts, smut disease which seriously affected winter irrigated wheat in Waygal district, and high level of insecurity incidents which caused displacement of thousands of families in search of security. Moreover, no aid reached the most affected households, increasing use of crisis strategies to help cope during the hungry season when access is very limited. Overall, 80% of households that were affected by shocks in 2011 and 2012 reported that they did not recover, and for 62% of households if their economic situation did not improve over the previous year, it actually worsened (27%).

Despite receiving more rain than the long term average (+41%), this under populated province is still short 9,200 MT of wheat. Food availability is inadequate as the few existing local markets are undersupplied, and generally disconnected from bigger markets in the region due to the lack of infrastructure. Also, access to food is severely affected by a mountainous terrain combined with lack of road networks and transportation to reach markets. Food prices have decreased from 2011 levels but increasing from 2010 (e.g., 25%-142%), thus limiting financial access of the poor households, especially those who do not own livestock and cannot take advantage of current higher prices. Wages, as in many other areas in Afghanistan, have increased but only by 20%. It is important to note that not one single formal credit provider institution exist in the entire province. Few households rely on migrant workers (23%) who mostly favour urban areas within the province to other destinations.

Physical utilization of food is highly inadequate based on the analysis of household health environment which indicate extremely low standard. The majority of households uses traditional means for sanitation (open pit) and cooking fuel (firewood), drinks and prepares food collected from unprotected water sources. More than 95% of households cook in the same room they sleep, which proves to be most problematic during the summer. Feeding practices are extremely poor in Nuristan; for example, a recent survey sampling some areas showed that over 37% of children received breastfeeding for less than one month, most receiving exclusive breastfeeding for only one or two days.

In August-September, many households will continue to experience poor to borderline consumption as, on average, a high pro- portion have either deficient (46%) or borderline (15%) food intake in this province where poor dietary diversity is prevalent. A MUAC survey in the area last year was showing above emergency level (21% Global Acute Malnutrition). A volatile context and natural disasters are pushing affected people to displacement and erosion of livelihood strategies and assets. This year, only very few households have chosen to return.

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In Crisis: Badakhshan

In general, the province of Badakhshan is classified in Phase 3 - Crisis . It is estimated that about 30% of the population are in Crisis and 40% Stressed.

This year, the province was hit by a series of avalanches, landslides, flash floods, and harsh winter weather which affected wheat, vegetables production and caused significant livestock loss. It is estimated that lack of feed caused the death of 41,000 and affected another 217,000 goats and sheep while the harsh weather killed about 3,000 livestock and affected ten times this number in all 28 districts. This has happened in a context of widespread poverty affecting 61% of the population and very low coping capacity as Badakhshan livelihoods are still affected by last year’s drought. About 97% of shock affected households have yet to recover. In the 2011/12 NRVA, an overwhelming 50.4% reported borrowing as their first source of income, and about 74% claimed to have a worse economic situation compared to the year before.

By end of May 2012, WFP food aid distribution amounted to 1,726.11 MT covering 101,300 beneficiaries. Estimations show that production of wheat comparative to last year has increased but wheat deficit still stands at 18,400 MT. Despite the harsh winter, precipitation improved over March -June when compared to last year and to long-term average. In June 2012, rainfall amounted to double the quantity received in June 2011 (30mm). Consequently, pasture conditions have improved. While harvest starts in August, high elevation areas will not start before mid September. Availability of food will be a problem for some of the high elevation districts such as Zebak, Eshkashim, Wakhan, Khowahan-a-Darwaz, Keran wa Menjan districts who are in hunger season until mid/late September and have depleted their winter stocks. Currently markets in lower elevations are functioning.

Compared to last year, wheat grain and flour prices have gone down in July 29% and 15% respectively but wheat grain price was still higher 50% than in 2010 according to MAIL. In contrast, according to WFP price data, the June wheat grain price decreased by 19% and wheat flour by 15% in comparison to the five years average. However prices of other household commodities such as rice, cooking oil, diesel have increased compared to last year same time. Physical access to food is constrained by bad road conditions due to damages caused this winter by natural disasters such as the flash floods, avalanches...etc. In general, market access is hampered by lack of road networks, with only one quarter of roads open year round and one quarter of the districts having no year round roads. Districts bordering Tajikistan have a mu- tual market where access to variety of goods is better during this time of the year. The loss of livestock in Badakhstan affects income, especially in the extreme northern part of the province and the Wakhan corridor where people depend on livestock sales during the hunger season (May - September) to purchase food from markets. It is important to note that income from opium is expected to rise in Argo, Darayem, Jurm, Khash, Wardoj, Baharak, Arghankhash, Teshkan districts as prices have increased substantially this year (150%).

In general, food accessed by population is inadequately utilized by at least a quarter of households due to limited access to clean water, combined with poor cooking practices and household health environment. Losses due inadequate food storage and resulting losses is highest during warm weather.

Overall food consumption in Badakhshan province is very poor with over 80% in deficit of calorie intake in NRVA 2011/12, of which 60.3% are very severely to severely in deficit. In late 2011, a survey carried out in food insecurity and malnutrition vulnerable districts revealed very poor household diet diversity, with an average score of less than 4 food groups (3.6). During the same time, prevalence of wasting was estimated at 19.3%.The situation is estimated to have now improved during harvest, but consumption is still inadequate (minimal /food gaps) for shocks affected households who are not able to diversify their diet, especially in the context of rising food prices (with the exception of wheat). Assets stripping to meet food consumption and/or non food expenditures continue to be the strategy of the poorest, displaced, indebted, and food aid dependent households.

Table 2: Priority Response Objectives Phase Priority Response Objectives

1 Action required to build resilience and for Disaster Risk Reduction 2 Action required for Disaster Risk Reduction and to protect livelihoods 3 Urgent Action Required to protect livelihoods, reduce food consumption gaps, and reduce acute malnutrition 4 Urgent Action Required to save lives and livelihoods 5 Urgent Action Required to prevent widespread death and total collapse of livelihoods

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Northern Region Sari Pul Saripul province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed within the validity period August-September 2012. While production of wheat is estimated above the area requirement improving by 21% compared to last year with surplus of 41,000 MT thanks to higher than average rainfall, resilience is low, especially among the poorest, as in the last couple of years people have been through drought, floods, and conflict induced displacement. It is estimated that 93% had not recovered from shocks by harvest.

In May, heavy rains were followed by floods in five districts, namely Saripul, Sancharak, Gosfandi, Sozma Qala, Kohis- tanat causing livelihood disruption, including significant loss of livelihood capitals and displacement for a number of households, and leaving affected populations with reduced abilities to invest. Moreover, livestock diseases outbreaks in Saripul district, namely Foot and Mouth Disease, Sheep Pox and Newcastle, and rising prices of most commodities are contributing factors to food insecurity.

While wheat prices have gone down in June/July, other commodities prices such as rice, maize, vegetable oil, beef and mutton prices have increased substantially from last two years levels. Rice increased 43% and 67% higher when compared to 2011 and 2010. Imported rice, stable in last two years, is now trading 33% higher. Maize prices increased 10% from last year and 130% from 2010, vegetable oil price jumped 50% from 2010/2011 prices. While increase in beef and mutton price increase, 53% and 25% respectively, indicate improved wheat to meat terms of trade, higher labor prices did not prevent, in general, terms of trade from deteriorating.

In 2011/12, 34.2% of households were classified in deficit in terms of calorie, and 14.9% borderline. Same time last year, prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition was measured at 9.2% which indicated an acute food insecurity crisis. Currently the rate is estimated to decrease anywhere from 1% - 4% few percentage points (2-3%)

This year’s destructive floods, rising food prices and other shocks have had a significant effect on food access for at least one in five household in rural areas. Displaced households and the poorest, despite the humanitarian assistance provided to the flood affected, have minimally adequate food consumption, and are currently unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies.

Samangan Samangan province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal in August – September 2012.

Food consumption and nutritional status are estimated to have considerably improved for the 28% of households who averaged below the 2,100 kcal per day in 2011/12 . In flood hit areas, despite significant effect on livelihood assets and strategies, abundant and timely humanitarian assistance contributed highly to improving the situation.

The major shocks that occur this year include flash floods in Khuram wa Sarbagh and Dara-I-Sufi Payin districts, frost with adverse effect on irrigated wheat, to a lesser extent on rain fed wheat, and on livestock (killed about 5,000 sheep and goats) in seven districts, a variety of plant diseases which were contained by a MAIL campaign, and livestock diseases that killed about 950 small ruminants and affected another 5,600.

Food availability is not a limiting factor in the analysis period. Wheat production has improved by 103% from last year, and food aid has been distributed to the affected households in flood hit areas. Despite the consequences of livestock diseases, overall health conditions and prices have improved substantially when compared to same time last year. Mar- kets are currently supplied and functioning well and wheat prices gone down substantially from last year’s levels thanks to the good harvest. Labour wages as well as remittances from migrant workers are normal. However, lack of financial assets, especially for the poorest and landless people of Roy Doab, Dara Yosof Bala and Dara Yosof Payeen, and the shocks affected households will limit market access and diet diversity. Drinking water availability and access is a major problem in the area.

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Jawazjan

Jawjzan province is classified in Phase 1 – Minimal acute food insecurity in the area. As households in Jawzjan are recovering from last year’s shocks, and their economic situation is improving, food consumption will be adequate for most in August-September. However, it is estimated that about 10% of the rural population are in phase 2 - Stressed, within the validity period August-September 2012.

Wheat production stands at about 183,000 MT, an increase of 229% compared to last season. As a result the province recovers from last year’s deficit with a surplus of 102,000 MT this year. Irrigation water availability for the second cash crop i.e. fruits is abundant and the prospects are extremely positive. Animal health has improved this year, and no livestock disease outbreak was reported. However access to food is still a limiting factor in areas such as in western district Khwaja Kukoh where flash floods disrupted the livelihoods of 2,630 families and affected winter irrigated wheat production, in Qirqeen and Khamyab districts where some crops were lost after flooding of Amu river, and where salinization and soil erosion are an issue, in Darzab and Qosh Tepa districts where insecurity is increasing.

The wheat surplus production has considerably improved access to food, functioning of markets, labour wages both within the province and in neighbouring provinces. Income prospects from second crops and carpet weaving are positive. Wheat grain price decreased by 36%, flour by 15%, maize by 5%.from 2011 levels, and prices are not projected to increase in the coming two months However, both local and imported rice prices have increased (13% and 34% respectively), while the price of beef 25% higher than in 2011 and 39% higher than in 2010 in a province where only 21% own livestock. Price of labour shot up 150%; consequently, terms of trade labour/wheat has increased substantially (257%) unlike wheat/mutton terms of trade that decreased by 38%. Carpet weaving which employs most women and children has had no major problems this year. Good road networks connect communities to the main markets; social network is strong as evidence shows that small size interest-free loans are prominent. However, access to drinking water is a limiting factor in some areas of Jawzjan, although more households this year in comparison to last year have access to it.

In retrospective, in 2011/12, 22.5% of households were classified in deficit in terms of calorie requirement, and 14.9% borderline. At 2.8% in April 2012, prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition was low and expected not to significantly change.

Balkh

Balkh province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal in August – September 2012. Food consumption and nutrition are expected to improve significantly, as well as grain and livestock production . However, people who have been affected by this season’s shocks together with the poorest who were severely food deficit in 2011/12 cannot meet minimal consumption without stressing their livelihood base.

In 2011, Balkh was affected by drought which led most households to employ insurance strategies, including offloading livestock and reducing quantity of water used to help them cope with the situation. Vulnerability is still high among the poor (60.3%), especially the poorest. They were among the most affected people, and had to use crisis strategies to get by, eroding in the process their livelihood base. Overall, 90% of shock affected households reported not having recovered. This season, floods in Shahi, Chimtal, Sholgara and Kishindeh districts, crop disease, notably Pomegranate borer and Melon fly, animal disease outbreaks, namely Foot and Mouth Disease, PPR and Newcastle disease, and a harsh winter are the main shocks faced by people in Balkh. Because of damages and losses caused by the floods, many members of affected households seasonally migrated to different locations to make up for their losses, and agricultural labourers lost opportunities for work. To reduce the adverse effects of crop disease on production, MAIL mounted a control campaign in the province. It is estimated that 800 cattle and sheep died from FMD and PPR, and about 5,500 died. Newcastle disease claimed 3,000 poultry. Harsh winter affected about 14,500 small ruminants and was fatal to another 1,500 heads.

Overall the prospect of grain production is good, wheat is harvested in surplus of 110,700 MT, and staple crops are currently available through production and imports from Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to adequately meet the province requirement. Access to food is currently a minor limiting factor for the majority: 67% of households have access to land; wheat grain and flour prices have decreased 25% and 8% from July prices last year; income from livestock and its prod- ucts will improve as prices are up (beef 44% mutton 14% milk 20%) but rice prices, just like in many other provinces of Af- ghanistan are higher, cooking oil price is slightly up; labour prices are still high despite not having changed from 2011 levels; there are currently no major insecurity issue, and Mazar e Sharif market is accessible from all villages. However, access to safe drinking water is limited to 28% of the population.

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North Eastern Region Takhar Takhar province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal in August – September 2012.

Food consumption and nutrition are expected to improve significantly. However, the poorest, very severely food deficit households in 2011/12 affected have yet to fully recover from the drought.

Floods, livestock and plant diseases in Ishkamish, Kulfagan, and Yangi Qala districts had minor effects on overall food security pillars this year in the province. Populations who were affected by the drought last year increased sharecropping patterns this year as an insurance strategy to cope.

A good rainfall contributed to wheat surplus for the province estimated at 182.900 MT, which represent 44% of total production and 133% increase from 2011. Availability of water in basins also increased significantly (18%) in comparison to the long-term average. Drinking water as well as irrigation water availability for the second crops is sufficient with exception of Kalafgan and Yangi Qala districts where drinking water availability is not adequate. Food aid was distributed before harvest and covered a good number of beneficiaries who were affected by the drought.

Markets in Takhar are well connected and functioning. With harvest, wheat and most food commodity prices have decreased. However, the price of rice increased about 34% and 26% from its level in 2011 and 2010 respectively. Enhanced livestock conditions and better prices, especially beef, have translated to improved terms of trade for those households who rely on livestock sale to access staple food in the market (52.1% own livestock). Labor wages, work opportunities, and share-cropping benefits are record high for the poor and landless.

In 2011/12, 33.7% of households were classified in deficit in terms of calorie, and 16.7% borderline. In July last year, prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition was measured at 10.4% which indicated an acute food insecurity crisis. The current rate is expected to be lower. Western Region Ghor

Ghor province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed within the validity period August-September 2012for an estimated 20% of the rural population.

Like nearby provinces, Ghor was affected by drought last year which reduced both irrigated and rain fed crop yields and caused total rain fed wheat failure for about 45% of households. Then, almost all people in the province were affected by the drought; 61% have now recovered from the shocks, and about 41% reported to be in a worse economic condition. This year, destructive flash floods occurred in Chaghcharan, Shahrak, Charsada, Du layna, Dawlat Yar and Tulak districts of the province, washing away agriculture land and homes, damaging infrastructures and causing displacement among other. Irrigated and rain-fed wheat were also affected by floods in central west districts of the province. A widespread Sheep Pox outbreak affected 2664 heads and killed about a little half that number. Locust was an issue this season, but a control campaign by MAIL was launched in time to preserve cereal crops.

Food availability was increased in May 2012 through general food distribution of 1,245 MT, covering 94,602 beneficiaries. Ac- cumulated precipitation increased by 63% compared to long term average, and nearly twice as much than last year. In response, wheat production is estimated to increase, but is in deficit this year by 15,200 MT, still a higher deficit than in 2010 because of the devastating effect of floods and less investment in overall production this season. While markets are currently functioning, and imports is expected to arrive in the main market from Hirat, overall physical access is a major limiting factor in Ghor due to bad road condition which hinders access to local markets. Food prices including wheat’s were still high in July. Comparing prices with July last year, both wheat grain and wheat flour prices increased (11% and 8% respectively), beef price increased by 13%, and mutton price by 5%. Wheat and beans prices will most likely fall close to average by mid September when harvest is underway, but livestock prices are expected to rise reflecting relatively better body condition after the drought damages. Access to water is very limited as only 14% have access. Unsafe water usage is widespread and the risk of contamina- tion high, especially during the current warm weather, given that two third of households do not have toilet facilities.

On average in 2011/2012, calorie intake has been inadequate for 36.9% of households. Prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition was estimated at 7.3%. At harvest, consumption and nutritional status are expected to improve.

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Hirat

Hirat province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal acute food insecurity in August – September 2012. Despite the drought in 2011, most households (70.3%) in Hirat managed to consume in 2011/12 adequate calories, a combination of relatively high resilience and the humanitarian assistance provided. Currently, more than four in five households are estimated to be able to meet essential food and non-food needs without engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies to access food and income, including any reliance on humanitarian assistance.

Natural disasters, namely frost and recent floods, and animal disease outbreaks, which caused livelihood damages and adversely affected crop (mainly irrigated wheat and fruits) and livestock production, are the main shocks this season in Hirat. A control campaign against locust in three districts was carried out by MAIL.

Wheat production in 2012 is below requirement by 45,000MT. Compared to 2011, rain fed wheat production is up 73%, while irrigated wheat, partly destroyed by floods, is down by 5.3%. Availability is minor limiting factor during the analysis timeframe as Hirat’s big market is functioning, well connected, and supplied through additional imports of wheat and other food commodities such as rice from Iran, Pakistan and Turkmenistan. The main livestock market is also available to sellers and buyers from the province and beyond.

Physical access to market is a problem for Farsi, Golran, and Kushk kohnah districts which are located further away and whose connecting roads are bad. Damaged infrastructures caused by floods can, to some extent, constrain physical access to food in over half of the districts, namely Pashtun Zarghun , Zendajan , Shindand, Enjil, Nizam-I-Shahid (Guzara) , Kohsan, Adraskan , Fersi, and Obe.

Wheat prices are on the decline, agricultural labour prices are up from last year’s and 44% higher than long term average. Consequently, terms of trade labour/wheat have improved considerably. However, other cereal prices, such as imported rice have increased in June by 32% and maize by a staggering 200%. Safe drinking water is accessed by only 28% of households and not expected to change significantly in August-September. Central Highlands DayKundi

Daykundi province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed within the validity period, August-September 2012. It is estimated that 20 % of the rural population are stressed in a context of compounding shocks, combined with low recovery rate (only 11% of households), and deteriorating economic conditions reported by 38% of households.

With around 60% of rain-fed agricultural land, low precipitation last year returned significantly below average harvest. This year’s rainfall was also low, only 15% increase from the previous year and significantly less land planted (40%) due to floods in seven districts, thus resulting in an estimated 28,000 MT deficit in wheat production for 2012/13 marketing year. Months before harvest, concerns for the wheat production, water and fodder availability had already started to lead over an estimated one third of households to use insurance coping mechanisms in order to cover their needs, including borrowing money, migrating and selling livestock earlier than planned.

In addition to low rainfall and floods affecting seven out of nine districts (Nili, Shahristan, Mer, Amor, Sange, Takht and khejran), animal disease outbreaks, namely Foot and Mouth Diseases and Sheep Pox in Nili, Shahristan, Miramor, and relatively high human disease outbreaks have contributed to additional loss of assets and/or limited access to resources, stressing livelihoods and food consumption.

Adding to poor infrastructure in this Central Highland province, a limiting factor to food physical access, labour and wheat prices have decreased compared to previous years’ levels indicating inadequate access to food for poor people which make up about 43% of the population. Physical utilization of food is highly inadequate in Daykundi where potable water is accessed by barely over one tenth of the population (13.8%), slightly less than three quarters (72%) have no toilet facilities- the remaining use open pit and traditional covered latrines, and animal dung is the main source of cooking fuel (78%).

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Bamyan

Bamyan province is classified in Phase 2 – Stressed in August- September 2012. The severity of food insecurity has decreased with harvest, but an estimated 20% of the rural population, including poor households who are still recovering from the drought’s impact on their livelihood base and flood affected households currently meet at best minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies.

Bamyan was one of the provinces affected by drought in 2011. Then, over 50% of households reported reduction of both irrigated and rain fed crop yield, and 10% claimed total loss of production. A high number of households (87%) went into debt to cope, mainly to access food. Households reported selling their assets, engaging in insurance and crisis strategies, including selling of productive assets and migration. The 2011/12 NRVA found that 89% of affected households have yet to recover from the previous shocks. Moreover, people of Bamyan faced this season animal disease outbreaks and damaging flash floods which, among other, affected spring irrigated wheat in central Bamyan, Shebar, Kahmard, Yakawlang districts and rain-fed wheat in Waras district. No food aid distribution was reported in recent months.

Compared to last season, accumulated precipitation marginally increased by 157%, that is 35% more than the long term average of accumulated precipitation. This contributed to an increase of 22% of wheat production this year. Wheat deficit still stands at 44,800 MT. Thanks to control pest campaigns launched against Locusts, hairy Tent Caterpillar, Colorado potato bee- tle and codling Moth in the province, relatively better quality wheat and vegetables have been produced. Excess rain has improved livestock condition in general, but diseases such as Foot and Mouth Disease and Enterotoxaemia have affected cattle in four districts of the province.

Currently, remote areas of the province are facing relatively less difficulties than in winter to access food markets, however physical access is still a constraint due to lack of road networks. Wheat prices are lower by about 10% and expected to decrease more in September, but prices of some food commodities, such as rice have increased (40%) compared to same time last years. The value of beef and mutton and milk has increased by 15%, 12% and 25% respectively, but terms of trade have deteriorated from 2011 to 2012. Increased labour prices have improved considerably labour/wheat terms of trade which favour households who depend on agricultural wages to access food. Overall, when compared to 2010, the year prior to the last drought, nearly prices of all basic food commodities have increased including wheat and wheat flour. Access to drinking water is a limiting factor in Bamyan as it reached only 8.8% of households, mainly located in urban areas.

A survey conducted in December 2011 indicated poor dietary diversity with consumption of 4.2 food groups on average. The food consumption score analysis showed over half (66.1%) of households experiencing inadequate consumption. In 2011/2012, about 50.7% of households did not meet the calorie requirement of 2100 Kcal/per person/per day. Prevalence of Global Acute had reached 9.9% in December 2011., but should be on the decrease as harvest starts during the analysis period.

Southern Region Uruzgan

Uruzgan province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed from August to September 2012, as an estimated 20% of the rural population will not be able to meet non food expenses during this period without stressing their livelihood base.

Crop production represents the major income source for more than 60% of households in Uruzgan. Many were affected by drought and other shocks last year, and 89%, especially the poor which constitute about 41% of the population are still feeling the effects. This year, floods in Trinkot and Dehrawod districts and animal diseases, namely Food and Mouth Disease and Chicken Pox -combined with lack of vaccine- mainly in Chora, Khas uruzgan, Shahidhasas and Dehrawod- districts were the main shocks that impacted on food security.

Overall, wheat production improved from last year’s level but still yield a deficit estimated at 4,600 MT. Due to insecurity, geographic isolation, and poor transport infrastructure, markets have yet to be easily accessible by everybody in this high density province. Also, potable water is only accessed by 14% of households. The status of financial access to food is not adequate or borderline at best as 87% of affected households reported not to have recovered from the shocks. While wheat prices are currently low, prices of other commodities such as rice and vegetable oil are up 28% and 10% respectively when compared to last two year’s prices. However, with beef and labour prices increasing this year, terms of trade beef/wheat and labor/wheat have improved.

On average, food intake of 44.5% of households in Uruzgan is below normal in 2011/12, including 25% in very severe to severe deficit. In February, Global Acute Malnutrition was estimated at 7.3%. This situation has improved with harvest and will continue as such until the end of September.

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Nimroz

Nimroz province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed from August to September 2012. It is estimated that about 20% of the rural population, mainly the poor and those significantly affected by this year’s shocks.

Aside from insecurity due to the conflict in Afghanistan, populations have been affected by several droughts in the last decade which has eroded their livelihoods significantly. Agricultural production has been low; pasture and livestock size has considerably diminished causing the sector to nearly die, and significant change in livelihood strategies have been introduced in the last years. Most people have moved from irrigated agricultural and livestock production sector to cross border trade with Iran and smuggling in an attempt to cope with the situation. The province is the main route of poppy trade to Iran and Pakistan coming from Helmand and Kandahar.

Last year’s drought that caused loss of most agriculture production, drinking water access problems, high level of human diseases, high prices, and loss of livestock were the main shocks reported by households. About 87% of affected households did not recover from the shocks. This year, floods and frost affected irrigated wheat production, and livestock disease outbreaks affected goats, sheep and cattle in all five districts. In addition, the depreciation of the Iranian currency against Afghan currency and the US Dollars has had a negative impact on many.

Wheat production has been better this year but still in deficit, however food and none food items are coming from Iran as well as cereals from Kandahar. FMD in all districts and Blackleg in Zaranj and Kang districts affected an estimated 45,300 livestock, mostly sheep and goats, with a death rate of about 10% (19.4% for goats). Lack of safe water in the province is a serious problem. People rely on Iran for supply of potable water. Insecurity is a major limiting factor in terms of physical access to markets, income opportunities, and social networking. Wheat prices have decreased from 2011 levels, but imported rice price had risen 75% in June (27% from 2010 levels). Maize price, though down from 2011 level, was also 38% higher the same month in 2010. Beef and mutton in July were up 21% and 9% respectively. Water costs about 15 Afs per 20 liters, and only 12.2% have access to it. Widespread use of unsafe water, lack of sanitation and poor feeding practices contributes to poor food physical utilisation.

While poverty is relatively low at 24.5%, the food consumption score has indicated poor quality and quantity for 32% of the households in the last year.

South Eastern Region Paktya Paktya province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed in August-September 2012 for about 20% of the rural population. Food consumption remains below requirement for the poorest still coping with last year’s shocks and those affected by this year’s main shocks, extreme cold weather, flash floods, hail, animal diseases and prevalent insecurity .

Despite improved rainfall, up 26% from long term average, early production estimates indicated a deficit. However, hail has reduced the wheat harvest which started in July by up to 50 percent compared to the average harvest. Food availability is borderline adequate to meet food consumption even though it is expected that supply can be increased through imports from Pakistan where essential food commodities are coming from, as well as from neighbouring provinces. The recent drought is thought to have reduced the number of household animals although their overall condition is expected to have had a chance to improve with the excess rain. Moreover, this year’s diseases outbreaks in approximately 6 districts and extreme weather only exacerbated the situation with increased death rate and morbidity.

Currently more people than expected will have to access food through markets. Constraints to food physical access include high level of insecurity and limited access to paved road with only one main market, Garzed, located in the capital of Paktya. Financial access has improved during the current harvest, with increased terms of trade meat/wheat and labour/wheat. In general, prices of main agricultural and non agricultural commodities have decreased in July; wheat by 4% and beef by 9% for example. Paktya poverty level is high, about 61% but only 12% of households report one or more seasonal migrant worker. However the province is known to have sent scores of migrants, mostly permanently, out of the country mainly to Gulf countries. Despite, locals who receive remittances prefer to live in urban rather than rural areas.

Limited access to safe drinking water (14%) combined with widespread poor household health environment leads to inadequate food utilization at all times, especially in this current warm weather. This also contributed to malnutrition above the emergency level at 17.6% and, to some extent, to high death rate(o.8/10,000/day) last year in July- September. On average, calorie consumption were inadequate for reportedly 34.6% of households over 2011/12.

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Eastern Region Laghman

Laghman province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal acute food insecurity in August – September 2012. About 15%, including the poorest and the disaster stricken households are stressed within the analysis period. It is estimated that consumption will generally be acceptable for the majority in the area until end of September.

Recent floods in Mehterlam and Alishing districts affected few households and their agriculture land. Vegetable production suffered in Meterlam and Qarghayee districts due to frost. However, no livestock and plant pest and diseases were reported.

Despite the deficit in wheat production, prices are currently low. Vegetable production is good overall, and income from exportation increases access to market. Prices of other commodities, such as rice, milk and beef have increased in the market, but labour wages have also increased in favour of the poor and landless and remittances are coming in.

Nangarhar

Nangarhar province is classified in Phase 2- Minimal acute food insecurity in August – September 2012. It is estimated that about 95% of the rural population achieve currently acceptable food consumption. Malnutrition level is expected to be under 5% for most districts, while slightly higher levels for Sarkhrod and Khew, mostly due to poor health status.

A number of households are affected by flash floods in Behsud, Surkh Rud, Chaparhar, Kuzkunar, Darah-I-Noor, Sher Zad, Hesarak, Khugyani districts. In Sherzad and Surkhrod districts 500 ha of agricultural land were washed away by floods. Other shocks include human diseases outbreaks such as, measles and malaria which are expected to increase with higher temperature in the summer, and high level of insecurity incidents. Moreover, poppy cultivation has moder- ately increased this season taking away some agricultural land. Returnees from Pakistan are settling in Nangarhar.

Generally, food is adequate to meet food consumption requirement. Wheat harvest in the province is normal and in surplus, even though some other grain production decreased. Livestock numbers are expected to increase from 2011 level as grazing rejuvenates, body condition improves, feeds is available, and no disease outbreak is reported. Water availability compared to LTA is above average. However, wild foods, namely pine nuts and walnuts will not be harvested until Octo- ber. Markets are functioning well, and wheat and beef prices are among the lowest in the country, especially wheat flour trading from Pakistan. Livestock prices have increased from 2011 and 2010 levels. Most commodity prices have increased compared to same time in 2011 and 2010. Labour price is stable and close to 2011 level but 20% higher than in 2010. Physical access to food is mainly constrained by insecurity episodes. In May, 930 flood affected beneficiaries received food aid from WFP.

A survey conducted in December 2011 indicated household dietary diversity score at 4.52 with low prevalence of vitamin A consumption. However the food consumption score indicated that 61% of household had acceptable consumption, 32% borderline consumption and only 6.7% poor consumption. On average, food intake of 80% of households in Nan- garhar is above normal in 2011/12. Malnutrition levels varied between 5% and 9%.

Analysis realized by Representatives of:

ACTED - AFGHANAID - AREA - CHA- CSO/NRVA - DACAAR - FAO - FEWSNET- OCHA OHW - MAIL - MoPH - NAEC - SDRO - SOLIDARITE - UNIVERSITY of KABUL WFP -WHH

AREA NANGARHAR - DAIL/HIRAT - DAIL/PHDP KANDAHAR - DAIL/NANGARHAR SOFAR/MAZAR WFP/KANDAHAR

IPC COORDINATION & MoAI-Sudan

Page 101010 Vol. 1 Issue 1 August 2012

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