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Metro Houston Population Forecast

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Metro Houston Population Forecast Metro Houston Population Forecast Projections to 2050 Prepared by the Greater Houston Partnership Research Department Data from Texas Demographic Center www.houston.org April 2017 Greater Houston Partnership Research 0 Population Forecast - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA Fast Growth Scenario In the fast growth scenario, the Houston metro area will add 8.3 million residents between 2010 and 2050. Metro Population- Fast Growth Forecast (Millions) 14.22 12.80 11.52 10.35 9.28 8.30 7.41 6.62 5.92 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Texas Demographic Center • Under the fast growth scenario, the Houston region will add an average of two million residents per decade over the next 40 years. • Population growth will come from the natural increase (births minus deaths) and from “net inmigration” (people moving into the region minus people moving out). • Texas Demographic Center’s fast growth scenario assumes net inmigration from now through 2050 to be equal to that experienced from 2000 to 2010. The scenario is typically used for short-range projections. For more information, please refer to the Texas Demographic Center’s Population Projections Methodology. Population Forecast – Fast Growth Scenario Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Statistical Area ’11 6,052,475 ’21 7,582,781 ’31 9,485,485 ’41 11,766,718 ’12 6,189,435 ’22 7,756,598 ’32 9,696,114 ’42 12,018,250 ’13 6,329,416 ’23 7,934,369 ’33 9,910,026 ’43 12,275,095 ’14 6,473,316 ’24 8,114,707 ’34 10,127,544 ’44 12,536,190 ’15 6,622,047 ’25 8,300,084 ’35 10,349,257 ’45 12,802,736 ’16 6,772,852 ’26 8,489,337 ’36 10,574,525 ’46 13,075,688 ’17 6,928,233 ’27 8,681,084 ’37 10,803,986 ’47 13,352,676 ’18 7,086,277 ’28 8,876,250 ’38 11,037,606 ’48 13,636,575 ’19 7,248,129 ’29 9,075,952 ’39 11,276,039 ’49 13,926,051 ’20 7,413,214 ’30 9,278,789 ’40 11,519,566 ’50 14,221,267 Source: Texas Demographic Center Greater Houston Partnership Research 1 Population Forecast - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA Moderate Growth Scenario In the moderate growth scenario, the Houston metro area will add 4.1 million residents between 2010 and 2050. Metro Population- Moderate Growth Forecast 10.00 (Millions) 9.48 8.96 8.45 7.92 7.41 6.90 6.40 5.92 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Texas Demographic Center • Under the moderate growth scenario, the Houston region will add approximately one million residents per decade over the next 40 years. • Population growth will come from the natural increase (births minus deaths) and from “net inmigration” (people moving into the region minus people moving out). • Texas Demographic Center’s moderate growth scenario assumes net inmigration from now through 2050 to be half that experienced from 2000 to 2010. The scenario is typically used for long-range projections. For more information, please refer to the Texas Demographic Center’s Population Projections Methodology. Population Forecast – Moderate Growth Scenario Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Statistical Area ’11 6,014,800 ’21 6,998,657 ’31 8,029,558 ’41 9,067,664 ’12 6,110,642 ’22 7,099,980 ’32 8,133,139 ’42 9,170,833 ’13 6,207,387 ’23 7,201,505 ’33 8,237,297 ’43 9,274,033 ’14 6,305,667 ’24 7,304,294 ’34 8,341,512 ’44 9,377,670 ’15 6,403,706 ’25 7,406,893 ’35 8,445,329 ’45 9,481,106 ’16 6,502,181 ’26 7,510,325 ’36 8,549,276 ’46 9,584,474 ’17 6,601,184 ’27 7,613,119 ’37 8,653,298 ’47 9,688,846 ’18 6,699,693 ’28 7,717,341 ’38 8,756,498 ’48 9,793,167 ’19 6,798,095 ’29 7,820,513 ’39 8,860,395 ’49 9,898,477 ’20 6,897,952 ’30 7,924,671 ’40 8,964,115 ’50 10,004,950 Source: Texas Demographic Center Greater Houston Partnership Research 2 Race and Ethnicity - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro Area Fast Growth Scenario Over the next four decades, Houston’s racial and ethnic composition will shift dramatically. 2010 39.5% 16.8% 35.4% 8.2% 2020 32.6% 16.1% 40.9% 10.3% 2030 26.2% 15.0% 46.2% 12.5% 2040 20.7% 13.6% 50.9% 14.8% 2050 16.3% 12.2% 54.6% 17.0% Anglo Black Hispanic Other Note: Other includes Asian, Native American and residents of more than one race. Source: Texas Demographic Center • In the Texas Demographic Center’s Fast Growth Scenario, the Anglo and Hispanic populations are equally balanced during the early years of the forecast. • Over time, however, Anglos will comprise a slightly smaller number of Houston area residents and a smaller share of the overall population. • Houston’s black population will continue to grow but not enough to maintain its current share of the metro population. • By 2038, Hispanics could outnumber all other ethnic groups combined. • By 2046, the Hispanic population of Houston could exceed the total population of Houston today. • Texas Demographic Center’s fast growth scenario assumes net inmigration from now through 2050 to be equal to that experienced from 2000 to 2010. The scenario is typically used for short-range projections. For more information, please refer to the Texas Demographic Center’s Population Projections Methodology. Greater Houston Partnership Research 3 Race and Ethnicity - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro Area Fast Growth Scenario Ethnic Group Forecast – Fast Growth Scenario Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Statistical Area Year Total Anglo Black Hispanic Other 2010 5,920,416 2,340,268 996,221 2,096,532 487,395 2011 6,052,475 2,350,227 1,015,568 2,176,436 510,244 2012 6,189,435 2,359,965 1,035,534 2,259,543 534,393 2013 6,329,416 2,369,624 1,055,597 2,344,893 559,302 2014 6,473,316 2,378,560 1,075,378 2,433,841 585,537 2015 6,622,047 2,387,237 1,095,818 2,525,868 613,124 2016 6,772,852 2,395,230 1,116,006 2,620,627 640,989 2017 6,928,233 2,402,601 1,136,265 2,718,686 670,681 2018 7,086,277 2,409,005 1,156,670 2,819,619 700,983 2019 7,248,129 2,414,802 1,177,348 2,923,506 732,473 2020 7,413,214 2,419,709 1,197,041 3,031,284 765,180 2021 7,582,781 2,424,142 1,217,268 3,142,204 799,167 2022 7,756,598 2,427,776 1,237,906 3,256,654 834,262 2023 7,934,369 2,430,711 1,258,149 3,374,825 870,684 2024 8,114,707 2,433,075 1,277,963 3,495,490 908,179 2025 8,300,084 2,434,970 1,297,804 3,620,270 947,040 2026 8,489,337 2,436,055 1,318,190 3,748,317 986,775 2027 8,681,084 2,436,429 1,337,245 3,879,235 1,028,175 2028 8,876,250 2,435,952 1,356,047 4,013,362 1,070,889 2029 9,075,952 2,434,896 1,375,272 4,150,709 1,115,075 2030 9,278,789 2,433,323 1,394,338 4,290,993 1,160,135 2031 9,485,485 2,431,275 1,412,885 4,434,225 1,207,100 2032 9,696,114 2,428,593 1,431,515 4,580,571 1,255,435 2033 9,910,026 2,425,330 1,449,544 4,729,922 1,305,230 2034 10,127,544 2,421,666 1,467,462 4,881,937 1,356,479 2035 10,349,257 2,417,451 1,484,905 5,037,147 1,409,754 2036 10,574,525 2,412,859 1,502,478 5,195,155 1,464,033 2037 10,803,986 2,407,710 1,519,761 5,356,336 1,520,179 2038 11,037,606 2,402,160 1,536,474 5,520,638 1,578,334 2039 11,276,039 2,396,207 1,553,674 5,688,120 1,638,038 2040 11,519,566 2,389,867 1,570,983 5,859,031 1,699,685 2041 11,766,718 2,383,220 1,587,539 6,033,067 1,762,892 2042 12,018,250 2,376,166 1,603,903 6,210,421 1,827,760 2043 12,275,095 2,368,790 1,620,598 6,391,228 1,894,479 2044 12,536,190 2,361,096 1,636,554 6,575,737 1,962,803 2045 12,802,736 2,353,179 1,652,354 6,763,702 2,033,501 2046 13,075,688 2,345,182 1,668,776 6,955,404 2,106,326 2047 13,352,676 2,337,237 1,684,147 7,150,896 2,180,396 2048 13,636,575 2,329,199 1,699,931 7,350,435 2,257,010 2049 13,926,051 2,321,241 1,715,521 7,553,851 2,335,438 2050 14,221,267 2,313,205 1,730,592 7,761,276 2,416,194 Source: Texas Demographic Center Greater Houston Partnership Research 4 Race and Ethnicity - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro Area Fast Growth Scenario Ethnic Group Forecast – Fast Growth Scenario Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Statistical Area Year Total Anglo Black Hispanic Other 2010 5,920,416 39.5% 16.8% 35.4% 8.2% 2011 6,052,475 38.8% 16.8% 36.0% 8.4% 2012 6,189,435 38.1% 16.7% 36.5% 8.6% 2013 6,329,416 37.4% 16.7% 37.0% 8.8% 2014 6,473,316 36.7% 16.6% 37.6% 9.0% 2015 6,622,047 36.0% 16.5% 38.1% 9.3% 2016 6,772,852 35.4% 16.5% 38.7% 9.5% 2017 6,928,233 34.7% 16.4% 39.2% 9.7% 2018 7,086,277 34.0% 16.3% 39.8% 9.9% 2019 7,248,129 33.3% 16.2% 40.3% 10.1% 2020 7,413,214 32.6% 16.1% 40.9% 10.3% 2021 7,582,781 32.0% 16.1% 41.4% 10.5% 2022 7,756,598 31.3% 16.0% 42.0% 10.8% 2023 7,934,369 30.6% 15.9% 42.5% 11.0% 2024 8,114,707 30.0% 15.7% 43.1% 11.2% 2025 8,300,084 29.3% 15.6% 43.6% 11.4% 2026 8,489,337 28.7% 15.5% 44.2% 11.6% 2027 8,681,084 28.1% 15.4% 44.7% 11.8% 2028 8,876,250 27.4% 15.3% 45.2% 12.1% 2029 9,075,952 26.8% 15.2% 45.7% 12.3% 2030 9,278,789 26.2% 15.0% 46.2% 12.5% 2031 9,485,485 25.6% 14.9% 46.7% 12.7% 2032 9,696,114 25.0% 14.8% 47.2% 12.9% 2033 9,910,026 24.5% 14.6% 47.7% 13.2% 2034 10,127,544 23.9% 14.5% 48.2% 13.4% 2035 10,349,257 23.4% 14.3% 48.7% 13.6% 2036 10,574,525 22.8% 14.2% 49.1% 13.8% 2037 10,803,986 22.3% 14.1% 49.6% 14.1% 2038 11,037,606 21.8% 13.9% 50.0% 14.3% 2039 11,276,039 21.3% 13.8% 50.4% 14.5% 2040 11,519,566 20.7% 13.6% 50.9% 14.8% 2041 11,766,718 20.3% 13.5% 51.3% 15.0% 2042 12,018,250 19.8% 13.3% 51.7% 15.2% 2043 12,275,095 19.3% 13.2% 52.1% 15.4% 2044 12,536,190 18.8% 13.1% 52.5% 15.7% 2045 12,802,736 18.4% 12.9% 52.8% 15.9% 2046 13,075,688 17.9% 12.8% 53.2% 16.1% 2047 13,352,676 17.5% 12.6% 53.6% 16.3% 2048 13,636,575 17.1% 12.5% 53.9% 16.6% 2049 13,926,051 16.7% 12.3% 54.2% 16.8% 2050 14,221,267 16.3% 12.2% 54.6% 17.0% Source: Texas Demographic Center Greater Houston Partnership Research 5 Race and Ethnicity - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro Area Moderate Growth Scenario Over the next four decades, Houston’s racial and ethnic composition will shift dramatically.
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