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ONLINE LEARNING in CANADA: at a TIPPING POINT a Cross-Country

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ONLINE LEARNING in CANADA: at a TIPPING POINT a Cross-Country ONLINE LEARNING IN CANADA: AT A TIPPING POINT A Cross-country Check-up 2012 June 2012 www.contactnorth.ca | www.contactnord.ca ONLINE LEARNING THRIVING In this overview, we outline the developments across Canada, starting on AcROSS CANADA the West Coast (British Columbia), moving across the prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba), into Ontario and Québec and then on to the Atlantic provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island) and ending in the northern territories (Yukon, Northwest and Nunavut). What we can say is that online learning is thriving across the country at the post-secondary level and that new investments are being made to support its continued growth and development, particularly in Ontario and in British Columbia. We can also observe that there is a renewed interest in focused investment aimed at increasing the quality, reach and success rates for online learning. SETTING THE CONTEXT Before looking at the state of online learning in Canada, it is necessary to set the context. In particular to understand the following: • The demography of Canada and the profile of the community engaged in learning; • The socio-economic environment and its links to demand for learning; • The post-secondary infrastructure and the role of the private sector; and • The challenges faced by the system in responding to need. Canada is a diverse country with a strong Aboriginal community and a range of diverse cultural groups. For example, in a single region in Alberta (Wood Buffalo), there are one hundred and sixty-nine cultural groups and fifty-seven languages are spoken as first languages, with English or French (Canada’s two official languages) being second or third languages for over two-thirds of this community. Canada also has a strong history of public engagement and the development of public institutions. Health care, education and social services remain largely publicly-funded and managed activities, with the private sector playing a supportive rather than controlling role in the provision of these services. However, the cost of providing public services is becoming a strain for a number of jurisdictions, with austerity being part of the mantra of governments coast to coast to coast. All jurisdictions in Canada are struggling to balance three components of their post-secondary education system: (a) balancing demand against cost through the efficient and effective use of scarce resources; (b) increasing collaboration and using collaboration to seek synergy, enable growth and spur efficiency and quality; and (c) encourage and enable innovation. Online learning (sometimes called technology enhanced education) is seen by all jurisdictions as able to contribute to all three of these components. The intent of this cross-country check-up is to make clear both the current state of online learning and the potential for development. 2 In Canada, education (including K-12, post-secondary, training, apprenticeship) is an exclusive provincial responsibility. As such, Canada has no national department or ministry of education and no national educational strategy. This makes it difficult to provide a simple and comprehensive national picture of the state of play of any aspect of education, especially post-secondary education, for the nation as a whole. In contrast, the strength of Canada rests in its uniquely provincial response to need, opportunity and circumstance. Each province and territory has developed a system of post-secondary education that fully reflects its understanding of its challenges. Some voluntary coordination through the Canadian Council of Ministers of Education (CMEC) does occur, but since this organization lacks research and supportive capacities, its function is limited. For example, definitions of a “full-time student equivalent” (FTE) differ between jurisdictions and data is not held in a common format, making direct comparison difficult. Also, many jurisdictions do not collect separate data on registrations in online courses versus more traditional registrations and only survey data, collected occasionally and not by all, reveals the growth of blended learning. As a final example, the quality assurance requirements which institutions have to meet differ by provinces and there are legal constraints on institutions offering programs outside of their own jurisdiction, though several do. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Canada was affected by the global recession of 2008-2009, but not CONTEXT nearly as dramatically as the United States (US). In part, this is because banking and mortgage regulation and controls were established in Canada in the early 1970s and have been continuously refined, thus avoiding some of the excesses of over-selling of mortgages, sub-prime mortgages, derivatives and the housing bubble. What did affect Canada, and the reason that governments across the country injected significant stimulus funds to support the economy (including funds to post-secondary institutions and to broadband access), was the substantial slowing of the US economy – over 80 per cent of Canadian exports feed this one market. Canada is the US’s largest goods trading partner with $525 billion in total (two way) trade during 2010. Goods imported from the US to Canada totaled $248 billion; goods exported to the US from Canada totaled $276 billion. The US goods trade deficit with Canada was $28 billion in 2010. The Canadian dollar currently trades around par with the US dollar. The slowdown of the US economy had a major impact on the flow of people, goods and capital to Canada and disrupted key industry sectors, such as manufacturing, forestry (especially in British Columbia and Ontario), automotive production and technology. While each province has experienced the economic downturn in the US differently, we can draw attention to three aspects of the Canadian economy which tie back to education and which apply across the country: • Canada’s low productivity relative to the productivity of the US – the productivity gap between Canada and the US has been growing for some time. Between 2002 and 2011, the gap equated to around $7,000 per worker. In 2011, this gap narrowed, with Canada posting a productivity gain of 0.8 per cent - a full 0.6 per cent higher than the US. We still have a way to go. 3 • Canada’s lack of competitiveness in comparison to our primary trading partners – US, China and the European Union. • Canada’s lack of investment in employer-led training and research and development. All three of these issues link to the extent to which the Canadian workforce is highly educated, the continued investment in its education and training in the workplace and the focus of the commitment to education. The government of Canada is seeking to address some of these issues in its emerging strategy for innovation1 and is also convinced that there needs to be a strong digital economy so as to spur economic growth and development2. However, some of the supports it has provided for broadband expansion have been eroded. For example, the Community Access Program, which enabled high adoption rates for broadband use (especially in rural Canada), has been discontinued. DEMOGRAPHICS Since 1851, population growth in Canada has been defined by three distinct demographic periods. From 1851 to 1900, the population grew slowly by a few million. High fertility was offset by very high mortality levels. Then, in the first half of the twentieth century (1901 to 1945), despite the two world wars, the growth rate accelerated, in part due to the settlement of Western Canada. Owing to the post-war baby boom and strong immigration, the second half of the twentieth century saw the Canadian population grow at an even faster pace. During the 65 years from 1946 to 2011, Canada’s population went from 12.3 million to 33.5 million, an increase of more than 21 million. More recently, between 2006 and 2011, Canada’s population grew at an average annual rate of approximately 1.0 per cent, mainly owing to strong immigration. This growth is expected to continue in the coming decades, and Canada could have 42.5 million inhabitants in 2056, under the most likely growth scenario using projections developed by Statistics Canada, the national statistics agency. In 2006, international migration accounted for two-thirds of Canadian population growth. The remaining third was provided by natural increase - the growth that results from the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. Until the early 1990s, natural increase was almost always the main engine of Canada’s total population growth. However, in the mid-1990s, a reversal occurred: the migratory component became the main engine of Canadian growth, particularly because of low fertility of resident Canadians and the aging of the population. Around 2030, deaths are expected to start outnumbering births in Canada. From that point forward, immigration will be the only growth factor for the Canadian population. 1 See, for example, http://rd-review.ca/eic/site/033. nsf/eng/home. 2 See, for example, http://www.digitaleconomy.gc.ca/. 4 Some implications of this demographic condition include: • A significant change in the dependency ratio (the number not in the workforce versus the number in the workforce). Currently the ratio is 65 per cent (per cent in work) but by 2036 it is likely to be 44 per cent - there will be fewer people working than those not working. • Significant labour shortages are forecast for Canada and are already evident in some provinces. Demand for labour will rise from 19.4 million to 22.6 million by 2031. Forecasts suggest a labour shortage of between 1.4 million and 2.7 million by 2031. Alberta alone is forecasting 100,000 unfilled vacancies by 2015. • The emerging economy, which relies heavily on knowledge work, will require more and more workers with a post-secondary qualification. Current estimates are that some 66.6 per cent of the Canadian workforce holds such a qualification.
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