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Macro View Canadian Markets

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Macro View Canadian Markets INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP MARKET BEAT Tuesday, October 06, 2020 MACRO VIEW Market Indicators Index Level* Change YTD YTD (C$) The TSX (-0.0%) is modestly lower while Wall Street's main indices S&P/TSX 16,405.78 -0.03% -3.9% -3.9% inched up as investors focus on Washington for signs of an agreement for S&P 500 3,412.02 0.10% 5.6% 7.8% more fiscal stimulus. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (+3.8%) prices NASDAQ 11,337.60 0.05% 26.4% 29.0% gained supported by supply disruptions in Norway, while another storm Dow Jones 28,278.47 0.46% -0.9% 1.2% brewing in the Gulf of Mexico could be a risk to refineries. Gold (+0.0%) Nikkei 225 23,433.73 0.52% -0.9% 4.0% prices are flat with a softer dollar as a return to riskier assets capped Euro Stoxx 50 3,240.85 0.64% -13.5% -7.1% gains. North American bond yields increased with the U.S. 10-year at FTSE EM 2,318.03 1.25% 0.3% 2.4% 0.7 8%, and the Canadian 10-year at 0.60%. The Canadian dollar has steadied against the greenback as oil prices rose and data showed a Canadian Market Movers slowdown in Canada's merchandise trade. BPY-U Brookfield Prope 1.6% Canada’s trade deficit narrowed to C$2.4 billion versus forecasts for C$2.0 billion in August. Exports fell 1.0% as motor vehicles and parts QSR Restaurant Brand 1.5% exports fell 6.8% and imports fell 1.2% on lower imports of aircraft and BMO Bank Of Montreal 1.3% other transportation equipment and parts. The U.S. trade deficit SHOP Shopify Inc 1.0% widened in August to US$67.1 billion versus 66.2 billion, the largest BNS Bank Of Nova Sco 0.8% since 2006 as the U.S. imported a record amount of consumer goods GIL Gildan Activewea -1.3% with a pickup in demand for the holiday shopping season. Total imports IPL Inter Pipeline L -1.6% increased by 3.2%, while exports rose by 2.2% from July. FM First Quantum -1.8% BHC Bausch Health Co -1.9% CANADIAN MARKETS WEED Canopy Growth Co -1.9% *As of October 6 2020 10:30 AM. Source: Bloomberg TD Bank (TD, +0.3%) has completed the TD Ameritrade acquisition by Charles Schwab (SCHW-NYSE, -1.9%). TD will book a $2.3 billion U.S. Market Movers revaluation gain as TD now owns a 13.5% stake in Charles Schwab. TD’s NVDA Nvidia Corp 3.4% stake consists of 9.9% in voting shares and the remaining 3.6% in non- voting shares. The non-voting shares are convertible to voting shares CRM Salesforce.Com 2.0% when transferred to a third party. SPG Simon Property 1.8% GE General Electric 1.8% Sienna Senior Living (SIA, +3.8%) announced that the same-property BKNG Booking Holdings 1.7% occupancy in September was 81.7%, up 60 basis points month-over- AAPL Apple Inc -1.0% month. SIA noted that the Ontario government has allocated $6.4 MRK Merck & Co -1.0% million in additional long-term care funding. SIA has applied to the Ministry of Long-Term Care to develop a new 320-bed long-term care CMCSA Comcast Corp -1.1% campus in Scarborough, Ontario. BMY Bristol-Myer Sqb -1.1% AMZN Amazon.Com Inc -1.1% Osisko Gold Royalties (OR, +5.7%) will transfer certain mining assets, *As of October 6 2020 10:30 AM. Source: Bloomberg including the Cariboo Gold Project, and a portfolio of marketable securities valued at $116 million to Barolo Ventures in exchange for common shares of Barolo. Benchmark Bonds & Rates Chg1 Yld1 Dec-202 Mar-212 Parex Resources (PXT, +5.8%) noted that they have repurchased 7.5 CA 2YR -0.01% 0.24% 0.35% 0.35% million shares under the normal course issuer bid (NCIB) since December 23 rd, 2019. PXT also noted that their Q3 production was about 44,200 CA 10YR -0.02% 0.60% 0.70% 0.80% barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. PXT has re-activated its US 2YR 0.00% 0.14% 0.25% 0.30% US 10YR 0.00% 0.78% 0.80% 1.00% development and exploration program and estimates $130 to $145 million in total full-year capital expenditure. Rate1 Dec-202 Mar-212 CA Prime 2.45% - - Cascades (CAS, -6.9%) announced plans to proceed with the conversion of an idle newsprint machine to a containerboard machine in its Bear CA Overnight Tgt 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Island mill in Virginia. To fund the conversion, CAS will issue $125 Fed Funds Tgt 0.25% 0.13% 0.13% 1 - As of October 6 2020 10:30 AM.; 2 - CIBC forecasts. Source: Bloomberg CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 1 Market Beat Currencies & Commodities million in a public equity offering on a bought deal basis. Price* Change YTD Andlauer Healthcare (AND, -1.5%) has acquired two temperature- C$/US$ 0.754 0.000 -2.0% controlled transportation businesses from Andlauer Management Group US$/€ 0.848 0.001 -4.9% for $15.9 million in cash. The transaction will be funded from existing Gold $1,913.82 $0.68 26.1% cash flow from operations. The combined net revenue of the two Copper per 100 lb $296.15 -$0.20 4.8% acquired businesses was approximately $22 million in 2019. Oil (WTI) $40.77 $1.54 -33.2% Oil (WCS) $30.21 $0.72 -21.7% U.S. MARKETS Natural Gas (NYMEX) $2.62 $0.01 19.7% Natural Gas (AECO) $1.18 $0.24 -31.0% Southwest Airlines (LUV +0.8%) is looking to cut employee *As of October 6 2020 10:30 AM. Source: Bloomberg compensation in an attempt to avoid layoffs. Southwest’s CEO Gary Kelly told employees “we all need to sacrifice more” in a video message Equity Indices YTD after the airline was faced with a collapse in travel demand related to 120 the pandemic. Kelly’s base salary will be reduced to zero, and executive 110 pay will be cut by 20%. Southwest is requesting that employee unions agree to pay cuts in exchange for no layoffs through 2021. Non-union 100 wages will be cut by 10% until 2022. 90 80 Cisco Systems (CSCO +0.9%) was told to pay US$1.9 billion to 70 cybersecurity company Centripetal over patent infringement. The networking conglomerate was accused of copying 5 of Centripetal’s 60 patents. The courts agreed that Cisco copied 4 out of 5 patents, a 31 Jul 31 30 Apr30 31 Jan 31 30 Jun 30 30 Sep30 31 Mar31 29 Feb 29 31 Aug31 31 Dec 31 decision that Cisco intends to appeal. May 31 S&P/TSX Dow Jones S&P500 Dollar Tree (DLTR +1.2%) will be hiring additional staff to handle an anticipated spike in demand leading up to the holiday season. The discount retailer will bring on an additional 25,000 seasonal workers, Earnings Releases most of whom will be positioned at distribution centers to help with Name Date Est. Act. online order fulfilment. Paychex Inc (PAYX) 10/06 $0.55 $0.63 * Lamb Weston (LW) 10/07 $0.31 -- * Apple (AAPL -1.0%) cut Bose, Sonos (SONO -3.5%), and Logitech (LOGI - 5.2%) products from its online store leading up to a potential product Domino'S Pizza (DPZ) 10/08 $2.79 -- * launch. Third-party audio products will also be removed from the Richelieu Hardw (RCH) 10/08 $0.40 -- shelves of Apple stores. Apple is reportedly working on adding high-end Nielsen Holdings (NLSN) 10/09 $0.39 -- * headphones to its product lineup. Johnson&Johnson (JNJ) 10/13 $1.97 -- * Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) 10/13 $2.12 -- * Citigroup Inc (C) 10/13 $0.86 -- * Blackrock Inc (BLK) 10/13 $7.66 -- * Fastenal Co (FAST) 10/13 $0.37 -- * Delta Air Li (DAL) 10/13 -$3.01 -- * First Republic B (FRC) 10/13 $1.38 -- * Unitedhealth Grp (UNH) 10/14 $3.08 -- * Source: Bloomberg * = USD Economic Calendar - Canada Economic Calendar - U.S. Day Release Prior Est. Actual Day Release Prior Est. Actual 10/6 Int'l Merchandise Trade (Aug) -2.45b -2.05b -2.45b 10/6 Trade Balance (Aug) -$63.6b -$66.2b -$67.1b 10/7 Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (Sep) 67.8 -- -- 10/6 JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) 6618 6500 6493 10/8 Housing Starts (Sep) 262.4k 240.0k -- 10/7 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.80% -- -- 10/9 Net Change in Employment (Sep) 245.8k 150.0k -- 10/7 FOMC Meeting Minutes -- -- -- 10/9 Full Time Employment Change (Sep) 205.8 -- -- 10/7 Consumer Credit (Aug) $12.250b $14.000b -- 10/9 Part Time Employment Change (Sep) 40 -- -- 10/8 Initial Jobless Claims 837k 820k -- 10/9 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10.20% 9.80% -- 10/8 Continuing Claims 11767k 11400k -- 10/9 Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY6.00% (Sep) 5.60% -- 10/8 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.3 -- -- 10/9 Participation Rate (Sep) 64.60% 64.70% -- 10/9 Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey0 () 0 0 10/13 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 53.1 -- -- 10/9 Wholesale Inventories MoM (Aug F) 0.50% 0.50% -- Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg BRAD BROWN, CFA - SR. MANAGER, EQUITIES PUJA GHOSH, CFA, MBA, MSC. – ASSOCIATE LAUREN ELLISON, CIM, CFP – ASSOCIATE JOHNNY TAM, MASC, CFA - ASSOCIATE ALLAN BISHOP - DIRECTOR, FIXED INCOME ANKUR JAIN – ASSOCIATE CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 2 Market Beat IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Important disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest information, our system for rating investment opportunities and our dissemination policy can be obtained by writing to CIBC World Markets Inc.
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