USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal #913
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Issue No. 913, 7 June 2011 Articles & Other Documents: Featured Article: LAWLOR: Nuclear Trafficking: A Growing Threat 1. Nuclear Weapons Threat Not Decreasing, Study Says 2. New Data Suggests Iran Military Link: U.N. Atom Chief 3. Iran to Answer IAEA’s New Questions if Alleged Studies Declared Closed: Official 4. US should Dissuade Iran from Making Nukes: Study 5. Iranian Navy Deploys Submarines in High Seas 6. 'Iran could Produce a Nuclear Weapon within Two Months' It Is Claimed as UN Atomic Watchdog Reveals Concerns 7. IISS Launches North Korea Nuke Study 8. SKorea Vows Strong Response to any North Attacks 9. S. Korea's Nuke Envoy to Visit China over Embittered N. Korea 10. Safety of Pakistan’s Nukes 11. With China in Mind, Agni-V Test Scheduled for December 12. Pak Nukes ‘200% Safe’: Malik 13. South Asia Nuclear Weapons Race Hots Up 14. Food Chain at Risk of Being Poisoned by Terrorist Groups 15. House Panel Cuts More Than $1 Billion in Nuclear Agency Funds 16. "First Joint U.S.-Russia Assessment of Nuclear Terror Threat" 17. LAWLOR: Nuclear Trafficking: A Growing Threat 18. Georgia-Russia Conflict Underscores the Threat of Cyber War 19. The Missile Defense Hyperbole Game 20. Iran Wants the Bomb, and It’s Well on Its Way: Jeffrey Goldberg Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats and countermeasures. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness. Established in 1998, the USAF/CPC provides education and research to present and future leaders of the Air Force, as well as to members of other branches of the armed services and Department of Defense. Our purpose is to help those agencies better prepare to counter the threat from weapons of mass destruction. Please feel free to visit our web site at http://cpc.au.af.mil/ for in-depth information and specific points of contact. The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. Issue No. 913, 7 June 2011 The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 Defense News Nuclear Weapons Threat Not Decreasing, Study Says Agence France-Presse (AFP) June 6, 2011 STOCKHOLM - More than 5,000 nuclear weapons are deployed around the world and nuclear powers continue investing in new weapon systems, making meaningful disarmament in the near future unlikely, a report published Tuesday said. "More than 5,000 nuclear weapons are deployed and ready for use, including nearly 2,000 that are kept in a high state of alert," according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). SIPRI's report said the world's eight nuclear powers - Britain, China, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia and the U.S. - possess more than 20,500warheads. As of January 2011, Russia had 11,000 nuclear warheads, including 2,427deployed, while the United States had 8,500 including 2,150 deployed, the report said. The U.S. and Russia have signed a Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) that calls for a maximum of 1,550 warheads deployed per country. However SIPRI argued that prospects for meaningful disarmament in the short-term are grim as all eight countries seem committed to either improving or maintaining their nuclear programs. "The five legally recognized nuclear weapons states, as defined by the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty are either deploying new nuclear weapon systems or have announced their intention to do so," the report said, referring to Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. India and Pakistan are "expanding their capacity to produce fissile material for military purposes," according to the report. SIPRI Director Daniel Nord said south Asia, where relations between India and Pakistan seem perpetually tense, is "the only place in the world where you have a nuclear weapons arms race." While Israel, which has never conclusively declared itself a nuclear weapons state but is almost universally assumed to be one, "appears to be waiting to assess how the situation with Iran's nuclear program develops," SIPRI said. Nord argued that because "nuclear weapons states are modernizing and are investing in their nuclear weapons establishments (it) seems unlikely that there will be any real nuclear weapon disarmament within the foreseeable future." The report said that North Korea "is believed to have produced enough plutonium to build a small number of nuclear warheads, but there is no public information to verify that it has operational nuclear weapons." Nord identified Pakistan "losing control of part of its nuclear arsenal" to a terrorist group as a specific concern. He also voiced worry over the potential consequences if "Israel or the United States decide that they will have to intervene and do something about the program in Iran." Iran has repeatedly insisted that its nuclear program is non-military, but several world powers have demanded closer international inspection of Iran's nuclear sites to verify the claim. SIPRI is an independent institution that receives 50 percent of its funding from the Swedish state. http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=6725053&c=EUR&s=TOP (Return to Articles and Documents List) Issue No. 913, 7 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 Chicago Tribune New Data Suggests Iran Military Link: U.N. Atom Chief Reuters June 6, 2011 VIENNA (Reuters) - The U.N. atomic watchdog has received further information regarding activities that "seem to point to the existence" of possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program, the agency's head said on Monday. "There are indications that certain of these activities may have continued until recently," Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in a speech to the agency's 35-nation governing board. Amano's statement underlined the U.N. body's concern that the Islamic Republic may be working to develop a nuclear-armed missile. Tehran rejects such suspicions, saying its nuclear program has only civilian aims, mainly generating electricity. Amano did not disclose the source of the new information. For several years, the IAEA has been investigating Western intelligence reports indicating Iran had coordinated efforts to process uranium, test explosives at high altitude and revamp a ballistic missile cone so it can take a nuclear warhead. Amano said he had written last month to the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, "reiterating the agency's concerns about the existence of possible military dimensions." He had also asked for Iran to "provide prompt access" to locations, equipment, documentation and officials to help clarify the agency's queries. Amano made clear that Iran's response had not been satisfactory, saying he had sent a new letter to Abbasi-Davani on June 3 "in which I reiterated the agency's requests to Iran." Reporting by Fredrik Dahl and Sylvia Westall; Editing by Alistair Lyon. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-rt-us-nuclear-iran-iaeatre7551hw-20110606,0,5987846.story (Return to Articles and Documents List) Tehran Times – Iran Monday, June 6, 2011 Iran to Answer IAEA’s New Questions if Alleged Studies Declared Closed: Official Tehran Times Political Desk TEHRAN – An Iranian diplomat says Tehran is ready to answer the International Atomic Energy Agency’s new questions about its nuclear program if the agency declares the alleged weapons studies “closed”. Ali Asghar Soltanieh announced that Atomic Energy Organization of Iran chief Fereydoun Abbasi has replied to IAEA director Yukiya Amano’s recent letter, rejecting claims that Iran plans to develop nuclear weapons and urging the IAEA to put aside the alleged weapons studies. “In (Abbasi’s) letter, the IAEA director general has been asked to declare closed the alleged studies, and if this matter is declared closed and Iran’s (nuclear) dossier is returned to normal status, Iran is ready to cooperate on any (new) question and accusation,” Soltanieh explained. Issue No. 913, 7 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 He added that Iran in a 118-page document has responded to the issue of alleged studies, proving that the claims are unfounded. Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA also said that the Islamic Republic has cleared up all the ambiguities over its nuclear activities under the modality plan signed by Tehran and the UN nuclear watchdog in 2007, and at the time it was agreed that no new issue is raised, but the IAEA has reneged on the agreement. “Based on the modality (plan), all the matters between Iran and the IAEA are closed, so the agency should put away the issues relating to the modality (plan),” he said. “If the agency declares closed the issues relating to modality (plan), Iran is ready to answer (new questions), but (cooperation) is impossible if the agency doesn’t meet its commitments,” he added.