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30 December 2013 Americas/United States Equity Research Casinos & Gaming / Lodging / Travel & Leisure Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure Research Analysts INDUSTRY PRIMER Joel Simkins 212 325 5380 [email protected] Don't Call it a Comeback, 2014 Outlook is Benjamin Chaiken 212 325 2585 Positive; Albeit Valuations May be Stretched [email protected] Michael Solomon The year in review: Looking back, 2013 was a strong year for many gaming, 212 325 3617 lodging, and leisure stocks. In gaming, factors including consolidation, strong [email protected] growth in Macau, and a solid recovery in Las Vegas drove returns. In lodging, a prolonged “middle innings” continues with supply in check. Despite some hiccups (in the year for the year group demand) we see continued pricing power and rising asset prices for stabilized hotels. The domestic leisure consumer remains resilient with the timeshare, theme park, and ski industries performing well with more mixed results in cruise given many self-inflicted headwinds. Best Ideas for 2014: ■ #1 MGM- “Best of Both Worlds”: Our new TP of $26 (+$1) is based on 10.5x/13x/8x/7.5x our 2015 LV, Macau, Regional, and AC EBITDA, respectively, discounted back. MGM remains the best-positioned operator to capitalize on the continued recovery of LV as the US economy recovers. Macau should prosper from steady trends while the Cotai growth story will be better appreciated throughout 2014. ■ #2 MAR- “Capital Return & Mid-Cycle Leverage”: Our new TP of $52 (+$2) is based on a multiple of 13x our 2015 EBITDA estimate discounted back. Marriott gives investors a predictable capital return story with a leading suite of global brands (across all chain scales) and exposure to growing incentive fees as the cycle progresses. ■ #3 HOT- “The Year of Monetization”: Our new $82 (+$2) TP is based on a multiple of 12.5x our 2015 EBITDA estimate, discounted back. In our view, 2014 should be the year HOT actively monetizes owned real estate returning capital to shareholders while core operating fundamentals further benefit from its high-end positioning and international platform. ■ #4 LVS- “Not Letting up in Macau, Waiting for Japan”: Our new TP of $85 (+$5) is based on 11x, 15.5x, 14x, and 8.5x 2015 EBITDA for LV, Macau, Singapore, and regional operations. We remain bullish on Macau trends (no supply in 2014 and continued growth in mass), continued return of capital, steady trends in Singapore, and optionality on Japan. ■ #5 MTN-“Pricing Power and PCMR”: Our $84 TP is based on 11x and 11.5x our 2015E mountain/lodging EBITDA, plus 1x real estate BV. Our valuation continues to reflect the trophy nature of MTN’s portfolio as well as lodging/leisure industry re-rating. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 30 December 2013 Table of contents Gaming 3 Asia 3 Las Vegas 8 Regional 14 Equipment 19 Interactive 21 Lodging 23 Key themes 23 Leisure 30 Cruise 30 Skiing 34 Theme parks 36 Timeshare 37 Gaming company snapshots 40 Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - Outperform, $85 TP 40 MGM Resorts (MGM) - Outperform, $26 TP 43 Penn National Gaming (PENN) - Outperform, $18 TP 47 Boyd Gaming (BYD) - Outperform, $16 TP 51 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) - Neutral, $165 TP 53 Gaming & Leisure Properties (GLPI) - Neutral, $44 TP 57 Caesars Acquisition Corp. (CACQ) - Outperform, $13 TP 60 Bally Technologies (BYI) - Neutral, $72 TP 63 Isle of Capri Casinos (ISLE) - Neutral, $7.50 TP 65 Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) - Underperform, $20 TP 68 IGT (IGT) - Underperform, $16 TP 71 Lodging company snapshots 75 Starwood Hotels (HOT) - Outperform, $82 TP 75 Marriott International (MAR) - Outperform, $52 TP 77 Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) - Outperform, $10 TP 79 Hyatt Hotels (H) - Neutral, $46 TP 81 Choice Hotels (CHH) - Neutral, $45 TP 83 Leisure company snapshots 87 Royal Caribbean (RCL) - Outperform, $45 TP 87 Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) - Outperform, $37 TP 89 Carnival Corporation (CCL) - Outperform, $43 TP 92 Vail Resorts (MTN) - Outperform, $84 TP 95 Six Flags (SIX) - Outperform, $43 TP 98 Diamond Resorts (DRII) - Outperform, $22 TP 101 Share Price Performance 2013 104 Valuation 107 Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure 2 30 December 2013 Gaming Key themes Asia The calm before the capacity, 2014 should be a steady year for Macau We believe Macau continues to have significant LT growth potential and revenue could While the prospects for eclipse $60bn at the end of 2017 as mass market revenue further accelerates, aided by integrated resort gaming in steady improvement in VIP. Continued growth in infrastructure should further accelerate Japan are increasing daily, penetration levels into the mainland driving increased visitation levels (from new and we see potential existing customers), potentially extending length of stay, as well as ultimately attracting commercialization in this players from beyond China. We are taking the view that growth in supply around the market as best case a late- region (e.g., Philippines) is not going to have a meaningful impact on Macau given its decade probability significant critical mass and breadth of adjacent demand. While the prospects for integrated resort gaming in Japan are increasing daily, we see potential commercialization in this market as best case a late-decade probability, if not extending into the next decade given many complexities. All things equal particularly as changes in government posture are very difficult to predict (e.g., austerity measures in 2013 that impacted F&B spending on the mainland, noted by many of our hotel companies) we expect 2014 to see steady growth in Macau. In addition unlike the late 00’s when many new assets were ramping and competitive levels were more intense, we expect a level of rationality with regard to promotion and other incentives during 2014. Exhibit 1: TTM Macau Historical GGR $45bn $40bn $35bn $30bn $25bn $20bn $15bn $10bn $5bn $0bn Source: Credit Suisse estimates. Pace of construction and other milestones will be closely followed With numerous projects all underway at the same time, we expect investors to closely With numerous projects all track the pace of construction (vertical ascent of developments) on Cotai in 2014 as well underway at the same time, as any quarterly commentary by management teams. It is important to keep in mind that we expect investors to many integrated resort construction projects are back-end loaded, with much of the closely track the pace of intricate interior build-out being labor intensive. Therefore in our view, availability of labor construction (vertical ascent (particularly foreign help) will become more important into early 2015. While there is an of developments) on Cotai argument to be made that some of the local companies may be better positioned as it in 2014 pertains to labor availability and government relations, there are no guarantees in Macau, Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure 3 30 December 2013 particularly as it relates to when a project will open or access to labor. With that said, we are more confident that MGM in particular will be able to open in early 2016, particularly as it is partnered with China State Construction Engineering Corporation to develop its Cotai project. CSCEC has developed a number of hotels in Asia including the Marriott Shanghai and Kempinski Beijing. The company’s American subsidiary has been working on the build out of the $3.5bn Baha Mar resort in the Caribbean. We believe the Macanese government as well as the mainland will be cognizant of the labor supply/demand imbalance; albeit, officials may use this shortage (as well as visas and other employment approvals for non-resident foreign labor) as a potential choke point to the ramp of construction as well as new capacity growth. Historically, labor availability has been a gating factor (albeit a short-term one) to growth in the market. Recall that Sands Cotai Central as well as Galaxy Cotai experienced relative delays due to the availability of construction manpower. While we are under the impression that enough labor is currently available today to handle the early stages of most mega-resorts, as more labor intensive aspects move forward (fitting out gaming spaces, hotel rooms, and other intricate work) the ratio of blue card workers allowed into the market will be a key metric to follow. Exhibit 2: Macau Project Pipeline Gaming Slot Hotel Casinos Operator Opening Date Tables Machines Rooms Galaxy Macau II Galaxy mid-2015 500 1,000 1,350 The Studio City MPEL mid-2015 450 1,500 1,650 The Parisian Macao Sands China late-2015 450 2,500 3,000 Wynn Cotai Wynn Macau 1Q2016 400 1,500 2,000 Louis XIII MPEL/Louis XIII early-2016 66 150 230 MGM Cotai MGM China 1H2016 500 2,500 1,600 Macau Fisherman's Wharf SJM/MLD 2014-2016 350 2,000 1,263 Galaxy Macau III & IV Galaxy 2016-2018 600 2,000 5,500 SJM Cotai North SJM 2017 700 1,000 2,000 Source: Credit Suisse estimates (Asia Gaming Analyst: Kenny Lau) Exhibit 3: GGR Projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Mass-market 4,122 5,500 7,527 9,989 13,305
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