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Download Thepdf Volume 61, Issue 4 Page 781 Stanford Law Review VIEWPOINT DIVERSITY AND MEDIA CONSOLIDATION: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY Daniel E. Ho & Kevin M. Quinn © 2009 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University, from the Stanford Law Review at 61 STAN. L. REV. 781 (2009). For information visit http://lawreview.stanford.edu. HO & QUINN 61 STAN. L. REV. 781 3/21/2009 2:38 AM ARTICLES VIEWPOINT DIVERSITY AND MEDIA CONSOLIDATION: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY Daniel E. Ho* & Kevin M. Quinn** One of the central predicates of legal regulation of media ownership is that ownership consolidation reduces substantive viewpoint diversity. Appellate * Assistant Professor of Law & Robert E. Paradise Faculty Fellow for Excellence in Teaching and Research, Stanford Law School, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, CA 94305; Tel: 650-723-9560; Fax: 650-725-0253; Email: [email protected], URL: http://dho.stanford.edu. ** Associate Professor, Department of Government and Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138; Tel: 617-495-4134; Fax: 617-496-5149; Email: [email protected], URL: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~kquinn/. We thank Patrick Behrer, Esther Cheng, Melissa Suzel Deas, Diana Dinh, Dominique Gracia, Max Haines-Stiles, Pete Mandel, Briggs Matheson, Monica Mleczko, Elizabeth McBride, Katie O’Banion, Dwight Pope, David Schwartz, Denise Sohn, Neal Ubriani, and especially Tim Shapiro for outstanding research assistance. For helpful conversations and comments, we thank David Abrams, Jon Adler, Enrique Armijo, Greg Crawford, Tino Cuéllar, Lee Epstein, Barbara Fried, Stephen Galoob, Seeta Peña Gangadharan, Paul Goldstein, Gillian Hadfield, Jay Hamilton, Deborah Hensler, Matt Hindman, Mark Kelman, Rod Kiewiet, Gary King, Jon Klick, Larry Kramer, David Law, Mark Lemley, Rick Lempert, Jonathan Levy, Kristin Madison, Anup Malani, Mat McCubbins, John McGinnis, Alison Morantz, Mark Nadel, Anne Joseph O’Connell, Gideon Parchomovsky, Nick Parrillo, Bob Rabin, Deborah Rhode, Jane Schachter, Tom Spavins, Matt Spitzer, Jeff Strnad, Mike Tomz, David Weisbach, Robert Weisberg, Abe Wickelgren, Simon Wilkie, Stephen F. Williams, Chris Yoo, and participants at the faculty workshops at Northwestern, Stanford, and University of Southern California Law Schools, the law and economics workshops at the University of Chicago Law School and the University of Pennsylvania Law School, the American Politics and Institutions Project at the University of California, San Diego, the applied statistics workshop at Harvard University, and a seminar at the Federal Communications Commission. Easy-to-use dynamic viewpoint software developed for this project, as well as replication materials, data, and viewpoint measures, will be made available upon publication for free at the author websites. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (SES 03-50613 and SES 07-51834), the Stanford Law School, the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard University, and the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University. 781 HO & QUINN 61 STAN. L. REV. 781 3/21/2009 2:38 AM 782 STANFORD LAW REVIEW [Vol. 61:781 courts and, in turn, the Federal Communications Commission have increasingly demanded evidence for this convergence hypothesis, but extant empirical measures of viewpoint diversity sidestep the problem, ignoring diversity, viewpoints, or both. Our Article develops and offers a finely tuned, time-varying statistical measure of editorial viewpoint diversity, based on a new database of over 1600 editorial positions in twenty-five top newspapers from 1988-2004. Using this new measure, we assess the validity of the convergence hypothesis by examining the evolution of editorial viewpoints over the course of five major mergers and acquisitions. Our data reveal complex patterns that defy extant accounts, showing stability, convergence, and divergence of viewpoints in the face of—and depending on the circumstances of—consolidation. These findings fundamentally challenge extant empirical regulatory assumptions—pointing to the crucial role of editorial policies—and deeply inform the viability of the ownership regulations and the interpretation of the 1996 Telecommunications Act. INTRODUCTION: THE DIVERSITY INDEX THAT DIDN’T INDEX DIVERSITY ..............783 I. THE CONVERGENCE HYPOTHESIS .......................................................................787 A. Viewpoint Diversity and the Empirical Turn in the Law of Media .............789 B. Scholarly Dissensus.....................................................................................794 II. LIMITATIONS OF EXISTING MEASUREMENTS OF VIEWPOINT DIVERSITY ...........798 A. The FCC’s Diversity Index .........................................................................800 B. Manual Content Analysis ............................................................................803 C. Language Processing ..................................................................................805 D. Political Endorsements ...............................................................................809 III. EMPIRICALLY CAPTURING SUBSTANTIVE VIEWPOINT DIVERSITY....................810 A. The Data: Supreme Court Editorials, 1988-2004.......................................813 B. Coding of Editorials....................................................................................816 C. Statistical Inference of Viewpoint Diversity................................................819 D. Mergers and Acquisitions ...........................................................................824 E. Caveats........................................................................................................827 IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS ........................................................................................829 A. Static Newspaper Viewpoints......................................................................830 B. Time-Varying Newspaper Viewpoints.........................................................832 1. Atlanta Journal-Constitution.................................................................833 2. New York Times—Boston Globe .........................................................837 3. Chicago Tribune—Los Angeles Times.................................................838 4. Houston Chronicle—San Francisco Chronicle .....................................840 5. USA Today—Arizona Republic ...........................................................840 V. CONVERGENCE OR MONOPOLY DIVERSIFICATION? AN IN-DEPTH VIEW...........841 A. Atlanta Journal-Constitution .......................................................................843 1. Divergence in the face of common ownership ......................................844 2. Viewpoint diversity in the face of convergence.....................................850 B. New York Times—Boston Globe................................................................856 CONCLUSION: POLICY IMPLICATIONS.....................................................................860 APPENDIX ..............................................................................................................865 A. Editorial Data Collection............................................................................865 B. Editorial Board Data Collection.................................................................865 1. Atlanta Journal-Constitution.................................................................865 HO & QUINN 61 STAN. L. REV. 781 3/21/2009 2:38 AM February 2009] VIEWPOINT DIVERSITY 783 2. Boston Globe ........................................................................................865 3. New York Times...................................................................................866 C. Dynamic Item-Response Theoretic Model...................................................866 INDEX OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1. Illustration of Diversity Index from Appendix C of Biennial Order..... 802 Figure 2. Illustration of Word Frequency “Cosine (Dis)similarity” ..................... 807 Figure 3. Halavais Dissimilarity Methods Applied to Supreme Court Editorials From Six Major Newspapers........................................................................ 808 Figure 4. Presidential Endorsements of Major Newspapers, 1992-2004.............. 810 Table 1. Newspapers, Abbreviations, and Supreme Court Terms Covered.......... 814 Figure 5. Supreme Court Editorial Publication Rates by Newspaper and Prominence of Case...................................................................................... 815 Figure 6. Editorial Coverage of the Supreme Court by Term............................... 816 Figure 7. Direction Position of Newspapers on the Legal Merits......................... 818 Figure 8. Fraction of Conservative Decisions on Cases from 1994-2004 Terms for Justices and Newspapers .............................................................................. 820 Figure 9. Fraction of Conservative Decisions by Term for Selected Justices and Newspapers, 1994-2004 ............................................................................... 822 Figure 10. Illustration of Model-Based Differential Weighting of Votes with Four Cases............................................................................................................. 825 Figure 11. Editorial Viewpoints and Judicial Ideal Points from Pooled Analysis of 1994-2004 Data ...........................................................................................
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