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French-Speaking Migrants to Greater Sudbury: 2017-2026

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French-Speaking Migrants to Greater Sudbury: 2017-2026 French-Speaking Migrants to Greater Sudbury: 2017-2026 Commentary No. 35 | November 2019 By: Fenfang Li & Alex Ross Who We Are Some of the key players in this model, and their roles, are as follows: President & CEO Charles Cirtwill Board: The Board of Directors sets strategic direction for Northern Policy Institute. Directors serve on Board committees dealing with audit, fundraising and governance, and collectively the Board holds the Board of Directors CEO accountable for achieving our Business Plan Pierre Bélanger (Chair) Dwayne Nashkawa goals. The Board’s principal responsibility is to protect Dr. Brian Tucker (Treasurer) (Secretary) and promote the interests, reputation, and stature of Suzanne Bélanger-Fontaine Emilio Rigato Northern Policy Institute. Dave Canfield Alan Spacek Kevin Eshkawkogan Asima Vezina (Vice-Chair President & CEO: Recommends strategic direction, Florence MacLean (Vice-Chair Northeast) develops plans and processes, and secures and Northwest) Charles Cirtwill (President allocates resources to achieve it. Corina Moore & CEO) Advisory Council: A group of committed individuals interested in supporting, but not directing, the work Advisory Council of Northern Policy Institute. Leaders in their fields, they Michael Atkins Cheryl Kennelly provide advice on potential researchers or points of Kim Jo Bliss Winter Dawn Lipscombe contact in the wider community. Jean-Pierre Chabot Danielle Perras Dr. Michael DeGagné Dr. George C. Macey Research Advisory Board: A group of academic Don Drummond Ogimaa Duke Peltier researchers who provide guidance and input on Audrey Gilbeau Bill Spinney potential research directions, potential authors, Peter Goring David Thompson and draft studies and commentaries. They are Northern Policy Institute’s formal link to the academic community. Peer Reviewers: Ensure specific papers are factual, Research Advisory Board relevant and publishable. Dr. Hugo Asselin Leata Ann Rigg Dr. Gayle Broad Dr. David Robinson Authors and Fellows: Provide independent expertise on George Burton S. Brenda Small specific policy areas as and when needed Dr. Heather Hall J.D. Snyder Dr. Livio Di Matteo Dr. Lindsay Tedds Standing engagement tools (general public, Dr. Barry Prentice government stakeholders, community stakeholders): Ensure Northern Policy Institute remains responsive to the community and reflects THEIR priorities and concerns in project selection. This report was made possible through the support of our partner, Northern Ontario Heritage Fund Corporation. Northern Policy Institute expresses great appreciation for their © 2019 Northern Policy Institute generous support but emphasizes the following: The views expressed in this commentary Published by Northern Policy Institute are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Institute, its 874 Tungsten St. Board of Directors or its supporters. Quotation with appropriate credit is permissible. Thunder Bay, Ontario P7B 6T6 Author’s calculations are based on data available at the time of publication and are ISBN: 978-1-989343-44-9 therefore subject to change. French-Speaking Migrants to Greater Sudbury: 2017-2026 2 Northern Policy Institute / Institut des politiques du Nord | November 2019 About the Northern Analyst Cooperative: The Northern Analyst Cooperative, a project of Northern Policy Institute, will allow members to “time share” a professional policy analyst. By merging our collective resources we can ensure that the smallest municipality or local charity can access high-end skills at an affordable price. About Northern Policy Institute: Northern Policy Institute is Northern Ontario’s independent think tank. We perform research, collect and disseminate evidence, and identify policy opportunities to support the growth of sustainable Northern communities. Our operations are located in Thunder Bay and Sudbury. We seek to enhance Northern Ontario’s capacity to take the lead position on socio-economic policy that impacts Northern Ontario, Ontario, and Canada as a whole. Project Partners: Northern Ontario Francophone Immigration Support Network Northern Ontario Francophone Immigration Support Network creates links between organizations from all regions of Northern Ontario, such as: Sudbury, Timmins, North Bay, Sault-Ste-Marie and Thunder Bay, to put in place a system to facilitate the reception and integration of newcomers. The northern network follows the objectives of the strategic plan developed by the Steering Committee: • Increase the number of French-speaking immigrants so as to increase the demographic weight of the Francophone communities in a minority situation. • Improve the capacity of French-speaking communities in a minority situation and strengthen welcoming and settlement structures for French-speaking newcomers. • Ensure the economic integration of French-speaking immigrants within Canadian society and Francophone communities in minority situations in particular. • Ensure the social and cultural integration of French-speaking immigrants within Canadian society and Francophone communities in minority situations. • Foster regionalization of Francophone immigration outside of Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver. About the Authors Fenfang Li Fenfang Li moved to Thunder Bay from China in 2015, and graduated from Lakehead University with a Master’s degree in Economics in 2017. Her educational background and work experience have inspired her to apply economic theories to real life problems through her role at NPI. Her experience living and studying in Thunder Bay provides her with a solid base of knowledge regarding Northern Ontario policy issues, and she is excited to apply her knowledge to help the local community. Alex Ross Alex Ross was born and raised in Sudbury, Ontario. After graduating from Laurentian University with a B.A. (Hons) in Economics in 2010, he completed a Masters Degree in Economic Policy from McMaster University. Alex joined NPI after working as a trust officer in the wealth management industry, and he has past non-profit experience as well as international work and travel experience in Thailand. Alex’s areas of interest include labour market analysis, community and economic development, cost-benefit analysis, and environmental sustainability. French-Speaking Migrants to Greater Sudbury: 2017-2026 Northern Policy Institute / Institut des politiques du Nord | November 2019 3 Contents Who We Are ....................................................................................................................................2 About the Authors ..........................................................................................................................3 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................5 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................5 Methodology .................................................................................................................................7 Alternate Analysis of Francophones ............................................................................................10 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................11 Works Cited .....................................................................................................................................12 French-Speaking Migrants to Greater Sudbury: 2017-2026 4 Northern Policy Institute / Institut des politiques du Nord | November 2019 Executive Summary Northern Ontario will be experiencing an increase in the number of seniors in the coming years, at a higher proportion than provincial levels. This will mean future labour market shortages, and a greater need for youth retention and migration to the North. With a need for more migration in general, the demographic composition of future migrants should also be considered, in order to prevent a faster decline of specific subgroups of the population that are following the overall aging population trend. Specifically in Greater Sudbury, French speakers make up more than one third of the population, and Francophones comprise of over one quarter of the total population. This paper estimates how many future French-speaking migrants should be targeted for Greater Sudbury, as a proportion of total future migrants, in order to maintain the current proportions of French speakers in the City. The paper finds that in order to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Greater Sudbury, it is estimated that between 32.5 per cent and 35.6 per cent of future migrants would need to be French speakers. French speakers, in general, are younger than the non-French-speaking population. In contrast, when analyzing the Francophone population, the authors found that this demographic subgroup is older than the non-Francophone population, meaning that a higher proportion of in-migrants would be needed in future years in order to maintain the current proportion of Francophones in Greater Sudbury. Introduction The purpose of this analysis is to estimate the number of future French-speaking in-migrants that would be required for the Greater Sudbury District in the coming years, in order to maintain the 2016 proportion of the French-speaking, core working age population in Greater Sudbury at 38.7 per cent. ‘French speakers’ is derived from the 2016 Census variable, “Knowledge
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