Three Essays on Real Estate, Finance and Planning
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THREE ESSAYS ON REAL ESTATE, FINANCE AND PLANNING: HOMEBUILDING, LIFE INSURER LENDING, AND RETAIL IN AN AGE OF FINANCIALIZATION A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Peter Wissoker May 2018 © 2018 Peter Wissoker THREE ESSAYS ON REAL ESTATE, FINANCE AND PLANNING: HOMEBUILDING, LIFE INSURER LENDING, AND RETAIL IN AN AGE OF FINANCIALIZATION Peter Wissoker Cornell University 2018 Too often planners neglect the importance of understanding the real estate industries, including real estate finance and investment. In this dissertation I examine how changes in the financial sector over the past thirty years reconfigured urban and suburban development. I take three different approaches to these issues. The first paper describes the role of large financial firms in the rapid growth of local and regional homebuilding companies during the 1990s, a period during which a handful of homebuilders became increasingly national in scale and captured a significant share of large, fast-growing markets in cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix during the 2000s. Among my conclusions, I suggest that homebuilders may have overbuilt in the mid-2000s to meet the annual growth targets of their stock analysts rather than the needs of subprime mortgage packagers. The essay also offers an argument that housing economists should consider firm and local market structure when studying housing supply and housing bubbles. The second paper is a case study of the real estate investments of U.S. life insurance companies, who for much of the twentieth century wrote one-third of the mortgages that financed the building of suburban malls, office buildings, apartments, etc., in the United States. I trace how firms began iii to lose market share in the 1970s and 1980s as pension rules and savings habits changed, and show how these factors led to changes in life insurance products, which, in turn, required different investment choices and a loosening of lending standards for large properties. My third paper argues that planners should understand commercial (non-single-family-residential) properties in the suburbs as embedded in a series of local, regional, and global networks tied to both real estate and the specific networks of the tenants, and offers a set of questions for planners to ask to help ascertain the intentions of owners and developers. The paper uses the example of suburban properties in the retail sector as an example. These three essays are based on large financial databases, trade periodicals, analyst reports, and archival research, and draw on the literatures from planning, geography, business history, economics and sociology. A conclusion discusses some of the implications of the research for planners. iv BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Peter Wissoker received his Bachelor of Arts degree in Comparative Literature from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. After working in a bookshop for two years, he returned to UMass, where he studied economic geography and earned a Master of Science degree. For the next eighteen years he worked as an acquisitions editor, publishing a number of prize- winning books in planning, sociology, anthropology, and geography for, in turn, The Guilford Press, Temple University Press, and Cornell University Press. In 2010, he returned to school to study under the guidance of Susan Christopherson in the Department of City and Regional Planning at Cornell University. He has written about the growth of national homebuilding companies during the 1990s and 2000s, the changing role of finance in real estate since the 1960s, and the real estate lending practices of life insurance companies. Research from his dissertation has already found outlets in Housing Policy Debate and the Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy, and Society. While at Cornell, he has served as the Ph.D. representative to the Dean’s Student Advisory Committee, the department’s Curriculum Committee and a faculty search committee. For a number of years, he also represented the College of Architecture, Art and Planning on the Student Library Advisory Board (SLAC). v DEDICATION To Laurie and Maddie with a million thanks for your love and support. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation is the culmination of years of graduate work, work that would never have been undertaken if Susan Christopherson had not been willing to have me as her advisee during the difficult days of the recession that followed the collapse of the housing and financial markets. She was a friend and colleague before I moved to Ithaca, and her untimely death sadly shaped the last years of my time at Cornell. Fortunately, I had the strong support of my committee, particularly Bill Goldsmith and Sharon Tennyson, both of whom attended to my work and helped me to the finish line. Sharon patiently read some of the sociological work on insurance with me. Bill not only stepped in as chair, but he has been here for me pretty much since I came to press. I truly value his friendship, support, enthusiasm, and occasional skepticism. Thanks are also due to Tom Campanella who kindly joined as a third member of my committee. Thanks, too, to the CRP faculty who always made time to help or advise me, particularly (in alphabetical order): Nancy Brooks, Suzanne Lanyi Charles, John Forester, Neema Kudva, Jennifer Minner, Michael Tomlan, and Mildred Warner. Special thanks to Pierre Clavel for his friendship and encouragement, and Tina Nelson for a decade of helping me, whatever the circumstances. I also appreciate the guidance of former-faculty members Ann Forseyth and Mike Manville during their time in the department. My work at Cornell was nourished through the support of faculty across the campus, particularly Michael Jones-Correa, Louis Hyman, Crocker Liu, Marina Welker, and Wendy Wolford, also with the assistance of the staff and chairs of the American Studies Program. vii A network of researchers and academic friends have supported me throughout my graduate work. I can’t name them all, but I would like to thank particularly Rachel Weber, Kathe Newman, Marc Doussard, Eddo Coaicetto, and Michael Pryke. Also, Phil Ashton, Dave Barista, Brett Christophers, Steve Melman, Ivy Zelman, Robert Paterson, six anonymous reviewers, the graduate students of Cornell University Global Finance Initiative, and the attendees of the Cornell Seminar in Regional Science, Planning, and Public Policy and other presentations of these papers. When you are in graduate school for as long as I have been, you develop a substantial peer group. This group is too large to mention everyone, so for now let me mention George Homsy, Sheryl-Ann Simpson, Dan Kuhlmann, Shoshana Goldstein, and Yunji Kim. Thank you all. Along with my school friends, numerous other Ithaca friends have supported me during this time, including, but not limited to, Jane Glaubman, John Scott and Karen Rodriguez (and Sam and Leo), Ange and Jameson Romeo-Hall, Tammy Baker, Trevor Pinch and Christine Leuenberger (and Annika Pinch). Beyond the limits of our little ‘burg, I continue to rely on the friendship and love of our friends Lisa Bernhard, Kevin St. Martin and Marianna Pavlovskaya, as well as the families of both Laurie and myself. Finally, as implied in the dedication, this dissertation would have never been completed without the almost unfailing support of my wife, Laurie Miller, and daughter, Maddie Wissoker. It’s been a very long haul, and they’ve been as merciful as one could ask, particularly given the circumstances. Thank you. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS Biographical Sketch……………………………………………………….……..v Dedication……………………………………………………………………….vi Acknowledgements…………………..…………………………………………vii 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………1 2. Putting the Supplier in Housing Supply: An Overview of the Growth and Concentration of Large Homebuilders in the United States (1990–2007)………………………………………….11 3. Financialization Under Duress or From Insurance to Investments: Financialization and the Supply Side of Life Insurance and Annuities in the USA (1970–2006)……………………………..….71 4. Investable Suburbs: Recognizing the Role of Real Estate Finance and Investment in Local Retail Properties…………………………….107 5. Conclusion: Why Planners Need to Better Understand Real Estate………...167 ix Introduction Real estate developers, along with their investors and lenders, play an important role in shaping places. So, too, with planners. Planners may set policy, but the real estate sector serves as a limiting condition for what policies may accomplish. Planners can zone hoping for an outcome (for instance, dense affordable housing), or even offer subsidies to encourage the same, but in the U.S., at least, they are nearly always reliant on private developers to realize those ideas. At other times, developers push what can be legally done on a particular site not only to a limit, but often beyond (assuming cooperation at some level from local government in granting exemptions or other work-arounds). In an era where real estate development is often grounded in the use of public money as a source of partial financing, it behooves those who control the purse (including planners who often advise on the subject) to have as thorough an understanding of real estate industries as possible. This dissertation takes seriously the importance of the real estate industry for planners, but with the corollary that one cannot understand real estate without taking into account the investors and lenders that finance