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Conference: Repairing the U.S.-NATO-Russia Relationship and Reducing the Risks of the Use of Nuclear Weapons
Conference: Repairing the U.S.-NATO-Russia Relationship and Reducing the Risks of the Use of Nuclear Weapons Convened by The Simons Foundation and Simon Fraser University’s Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue, Simon Fraser University 580 West Hastings Street, Vancouver 26-28 September 2018 List of Participants Dr. Bruce G. Blair Conference Chair; Research Scholar, Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University; Co-Founder, Global Zero Dr. Bruce G. Blair is a research scholar in the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University and is co-founder of the Global Zero movement for the elimination of nuclear weapons. From 2011 to 2017, he served as a member of the U.S. Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board. For many years, Blair was a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution and served as a project director at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment. He previously served in the U.S. Air Force as a Minuteman ICBM launch control officer and as a support officer for the Airborne Command Post of the Strategic Air Command. Blair holds a PhD in operations research from Yale University. Dr. James Acton Jessica T. Mathews Chair and Co-director of Nuclear Policy Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace James Acton holds the Jessica T. Mathews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. A physicist by training, Acton’s current research focuses on the escalation risks of advanced conventional weapons. -
(CPC) Outreach Journal #1097
USAF Counterproliferation Center (CPC) Outreach Journal Issue No. 1097, 10 January 2014 Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal! As part of the CPC’s mission to develop Air Force, DoD, and other USG leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions on unconventional weapons. These discussions include news articles, papers, and other information sources that address issues pertinent to the U.S. national security community. It is our hope that this information resources will help enhance the overall awareness of these important national security issues and lead to the further discussion of options for dealing with the potential use of unconventional weapons. The CPC is seeking submissions for its annual General Charles A. Horner award, which honors the best original writing on issues relating to Air Force counter-WMD and nuclear enterprise operations. The deadline for submissions is March 31, 2014. For more information, please visit our web-site. The following news articles, papers, and other information sources do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the Air University, U.S. Air Force, or Department of Defense. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. FEATURED ITEM: “Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad: US Strategic Modernization over the Next Thirty Years.” By Jon B. Wolfsthal, Jeffrey Lewis, Marc Quint, January 7, 2014. http://cns.miis.edu/trillion_dollar_nuclear_triad/index.htm The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) announces the release of its latest publication, "The Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad: US Strategic Modernization over the Next Thirty Years." The report concludes that the United States will likely spend over $1 trillion during the next three decades to maintain its current nuclear arsenal and purchase their replacement systems. -
Siloed-Thinking.Pdf
1 siloed thinking: A Closer Look at the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent ABOUT FAS The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that brings together members of the science and policy communities to collaborate on mitigating global catastrophic threats. Founded in November 1945 as the Federation of Atomic Scientists by scientists who built the first atomic bombs during the Manhattan Project, FAS is devoted to the belief that scientists, engineers, and other technically trained people have the ethical obligation to ensure that the technological fruits of their intellect and labor are applied to the benefit of humankind. In 1946, FAS rebranded as the Federation of American Scientists to broaden its focus to prevent global catastrophes. Since its founding, FAS has served as an influential source of information and rigorous, evidence- based analysis of issues related to national security. Specifically, FAS works to reduce the spread and number of nuclear weapons, prevent nuclear and radiological terrorism, promote high standards for the safety and security of nuclear energy, illuminate government secrecy practices, and prevent the use of biological and chemical weapons. The Nuclear Information Project provides the public with reliable information about the status and trends of the nuclear weapons arsenals of the world’s nuclear-armed countries. The project, which according to the Washington Post is “one of the most widely sourced agencies for nuclear warhead counts,” uses open sources such as official documents, testimonies, previously undisclosed information obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, as well as independent analysis of commercial satellite imagery as the basis for developing the best available unclassified estimates of the status and trends of nuclear weapons worldwide. -
Uncorrected Panel 2 Transcript
NUCLEAR-2010/05/05 1 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION FALK AUDITORIUM LOOKING FORWARD ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL: Panel 2: The Challenges of Moving Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons Washington, D.C. Wednesday, May 5, 2010 Moderator: FIONA HILL Senior Fellow and Director Center on the United States and Europe The Brookings Institution PARTICIPANTS (CONT’D): Panelists: RICHARD BURT United States Chair Global Zero DARYL KIMBALL Executive Director The Arms Control Association DEEPTI CHOUBEY Deputy Director, Nuclear Policy Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace * * * * * ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 NUCLEAR-2010/05/05 2 MS. HILL: Well, I think we’ll get started on the final session of today’s conference. I had also people who were rushing from the building as I came back in. He said that they wanted to stay, but, unfortunately, he’d been pulled away for other things and we’re passing on apologies. So I don’t think the fact that we now have slightly less people in the audience than we had earlier is reflective at all of the interest in this topic. MR. TALBOTT: How gracious of you to say that. MS. HILL: Well, I know it’s not. Look, Strobe’s still with us at the back here still, too. This final panel for the day is going to push us even further forward than where we’ve been over the last two sessions. We started off with the most recent issue with START and, obviously, the focal point of the bilateral nuclear relationship between the United States and Russia. -
National Perspectives on Nuclear Disarmament
NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT EDITED BY: Barry M. Blechman Alexander K. Bollfrass March 2010 Copyright ©2010 The Henry L. Stimson Center Cover design by Shawn Woodley All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Henry L. Stimson Center. The Henry L. Stimson Center 1111 19th Street, NW 12th Floor Washington, DC 20036 phone: 202-223-5956 fax: 202-238-9604 www.stimson.org TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface .....................................................................................................................v Introduction ...........................................................................................................vii BRAZIL | A Brazilian Perspective on Nuclear Disarmament Marcos C. de Azambuja.....................................................................1 CHINA | China’s Nuclear Strategy in a Changing World Stategic Situation Major General Pan Zhenqiang (Retired)........................................13 FRANCE | French Perspectives on Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Disarmament Bruno Tertrais ..................................................................................37 INDIA | Indian Perspectives on the Global Elimination of Nuclear Weapons Rajesh M. Basrur .............................................................................59 IRAN | Iranian Perspectives on the Global Elimination of Nuclear Weapons Anoush Ehteshami............................................................................87 -
Realism, Idealism, Deterrence, and Disarmament
STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY – FEATURE ARTICLE Realism, Idealism, Deterrence, and Disarmament KEITH B. PAYNE* Abstract he general concepts of idealism and realism appear to have cap‑ tured truths about what should be and what is, respectively. The idealist’s contemporary focus on the humanitarian consequences Tof nuclear war surely is valid: the risks to humanity of the employment of nuclear weapons are simply so extreme in so many scenarios that nuclear war must be prevented. However, the contention that nuclear disarmament is the answer—and correspondingly nuclear deterrence must be demoted— presumes that the cooperative transformation of the interstate system nec‑ essary for disarmament is likely within a meaningful timeframe. Yet de‑ grading nuclear deterrence now in favor of transformation and disar ma‑ ment risks “waiting for Godot” because also valid is the realist’s basic contention that the timely transformation of the interstate system needed for cooperative global nuclear disarmament appears implausible in the extreme. The apparent tranquility of the immediate post–Cold War period that led many to optimism in this regard no longer exists, and the premature demotion of nuclear deterrence could unintentionally precipitate its failure. ***** In 1962 renowned realist academic Hans Morgenthau observed that “the history of modern political thought is the story of a contest between two schools that differ fundamentally in their conceptions of the nature of man, society, and politics.”1 Arnold Wolfers, another highly regarded twentieth‑ century political theorist noted similarly, “In international rela‑ tions, two opposing schools of thought have fought each other throughout the modern age. Ever since Machiavelli published The Prince, his ‘realistic’ views have shocked ‘idealist’ thinkers. -
The End of Nuclear Warfighting: Moving to a Deterrence-Only Posture
The End of Nuclear Warfighting: Moving to a Deterrence-Only Posture an alternative u.s. nuclear posture review Bruce G. Blair with Jessica Sleight and Emma Claire Foley Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University Global Zero, Washington, DC September 2018 Copyright © 2018 Bruce G. Blair published by the program on science and global security, princeton university This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License; to view a copy of this license, visit www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0 typesetting in LATEX with tufte document class First printing, September 2018 Contents Abstract 5 Executive Summary 6 I. Introduction 15 II. The Value of U.S. Nuclear Capabilities and Enduring National Objectives 21 III. Maximizing Strategic Stability 23 IV. U.S. Objectives if Deterrence Fails 32 V. Modernization of Nuclear C3 40 VI. Near-Term Guidance for Reducing the Risks of Prompt Launch 49 VII. Moving the U.S. Strategic Force Toward a Deterrence-Only Strategy 53 VIII.Nuclear Modernization Program 70 IX. Nuclear-Weapon Infrastructure: The “Complex” 86 X. Countering Nuclear Terrorism 89 XI. Nonproliferation and Strategic-Arms Control 91 XII. Conclusion 106 Authors 109 Abstract The United States should adopt a deterrence-only policy based on no first use of nuclear weapons, no counterforce against opposing nuclear forces in second use, and no hair-trigger response. This pol- icy requires only a small highly survivable second-strike force and resilient nuclear command, control, and communications (C3). Five new strategic submarines (SSBNs) backed by a small reserve fleet of 40 strategic bombers would fully support the policy, which requires a robust capability to destroy a nuclear aggressor’s key elements of state control and sources of its power and wealth. -
2021 Doomsday Clock Statement
This is your COVID wake-up call: It is 100 seconds to midnight 2021 Doomsday Clock Statement Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Editor, John Mecklin It is 100 seconds to midnight Editor’s note: Founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The Doomsday Clock is set every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 13 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains. To: Leaders and citizens of the world Accelerating nuclear programs in multiple Re: This is your COVID wake-up call: It is countries moved the world into less stable and 100 seconds to midnight manageable territory last year. Development of hypersonic glide vehicles, ballistic missile Date: January 27, 2021 defenses, and weapons-delivery systems that can flexibly use conventional or nuclear Humanity continues to sufer as the COVID-19 warheads may raise the probability of pandemic spreads around the world. In 2020 miscalculation in times of tension. Events like alone, this novel disease killed 1.7 million the deadly assault earlier this month on the US people and sickened at least 70 million more. -
Changing Nuclear Weapons Policy in the Trump Era
DECEMBER 2017 Changing Nuclear Weapons Policy in the Trump Era Implications for Europe Maxwell Downman w The British American Security Information Council (BASIC) 3 Whitehall Court Westminster London SQ1A 2EL © The British American Security Information Council (BASIC), Charity Registration No. 1001081 and European Leadership Network (ELN), 2017 T: +44 (0) 20 77663465 The opinions expressed in this publication are the www.basicint.org responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of BASIC or ELN. European Leadership Network (ELN) Southbank House All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be Black Prince Road reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, London SE1 7SJ electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without the Company Registration No. 07521896 prior written permission of the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publishers. The Author The British American Security Maxwell Downman is an Analyst at the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) Information Council, where he works primarily on issues relating The British American Security Information Council (BASIC) is a to disarmament and arms control. His research interests include think tank based in Whitehall in London, taking a non-partisan, the role of nuclear weapons in US alliance dynamics, the politics inclusive and dialogue-based approach to encourage stable of UK nuclear weapons, and the role of nuclear weapons in global nuclear disarmament, arms control and non- Chinese strategic thinking. Maxwell is also a freelance writer for proliferation. The organization works to facilitate constructive Asian Affairs, and holds a MA in Japanese at the University of engagement between siloed communities on traditionally Edinburgh and a MA in International Studies and Diplomacy at sensitive or complex issues of nuclear policy, to create space for The School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of new and diverse perspectives to grow from those interactions. -
Orienting the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review
The Washington Quarterly ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rwaq20 Orienting the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review Brad Roberts To cite this article: Brad Roberts (2021) Orienting the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review, The Washington Quarterly, 44:2, 123-142, DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933740 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933740 Published online: 17 Jun 2021. Submit your article to this journal View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=rwaq20 Brad Roberts Orienting the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review With its March 2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, the Biden administration set down its first markers on nuclear policy. On inter- national nuclear diplomacy, it committed to “head off costly arms races and re- establish our credibility as a leader in arms control,”“pursue new arms control arrangements”“where possible,”“engage in meaningful dialogue with Russia and China on a range of emerging military technological developments that implicate strategic stability,” and “renew” US leadership of international nonpro- liferation diplomacy. This was in the context of a commitment “to elevate diplo- macy as our tool of first resort.”1 On deterrence strategy, the administration committed to “reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strat- egy, while ensuring our strategic deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective and that our extended -
Blundering Toward Nuclear Chaos: the Trump Administration After Three Years
+1 202.525.5962 [email protected] @globalzero 1342 Florida Avenue NW Washington, DC 20009 USA www.globalzero.org blundering toward nuclear chaos The Trump administration after 3 years American Nuclear Policy Initiative Jon Wolfsthal, ed. May 2020 Copyright © 2020 by Global Zero We welcome redistribution and reuse with attribution for widest possi- ble dissemination. !is work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. Table of Contents Introduction II The Trump Administration After Three Years: Blunder- IV ing Toward Nuclear Chaos American Nuclear Policy Initiative members US-Russian Nuclear Stability and Deterrence 1 Jon Wolfsthal Nuclear Policy and Modernization 12 Kingston Reif Response to the Iranian Nuclear Challenge 25 Richard Nephew Approach to North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program 35 Kelsey Davenport Global Nonproliferation Regime 52 Alexandra Bell Preventing Nuclear Terrorism 64 Nickolas Roth Making America’s Nuclear Energy Great Again 76 Sharon Squassoni Author Biographies 85 I Introduction The world has changed considerably since this assessment of the nuclear policies of the Trump administration was written in 2019. The coronavirus pandemic of 2020 has thrown the entire world into uncertainty, and tested the US government and President Donald Trump’s ability to handle a global crisis of unprecedented proportions. The demands of managing this crisis, and repairing the damage done to our societies, economies and populations rightfully demand our priority attention. However, even a pandemic does not erase the persistent and even systemic challenges facing the United States in other areas. -
The War That Must Never Be Fought
Praise for The War That Must Never Be Fought “This important book is a collection of thoughtful papers written by a stellar cast of experienced students of today’s dilemma posed by nuclear weapons and deterrence policy. Recognizing the unimaginable devasta- tion to humanity and the planet we all inhabit in the event of a failure of this policy, either by deliberate action or human error, the authors add valuable insights into policies and initiatives that nations should pursue in a global effort to reduce existing dangers of entering into The War That Must Never Be Fought.” —Sidney D. Drell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and a professor emeritus of theoretical physics at Stanford’s SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, where he served as deputy director. “More than an assertion, The War That Must Never Be Fought calls for a robust public debate of the dilemmas of nuclear deterrence. It challenges us all to decide what kind of a world we want and to participate in getting there. The articles included provide a balanced and thoughtful catalyst for beginning that discussion.” —William J. Perry was the 19th secretary of defense, and is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies at Stanford University. ”In 2007, I joined with George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, and Bill Perry in warning that ‘unless urgent new actions are taken, the U.S. soon will be compelled to enter a new nuclear era that will be more precarious, psychologically disorienting, and economically even more costly than was Cold War deterrence.’ That new nuclear era is fast approaching.