(CPC) Outreach Journal #1097
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USAF Counterproliferation Center (CPC) Outreach Journal Issue No. 1097, 10 January 2014 Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal! As part of the CPC’s mission to develop Air Force, DoD, and other USG leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions on unconventional weapons. These discussions include news articles, papers, and other information sources that address issues pertinent to the U.S. national security community. It is our hope that this information resources will help enhance the overall awareness of these important national security issues and lead to the further discussion of options for dealing with the potential use of unconventional weapons. The CPC is seeking submissions for its annual General Charles A. Horner award, which honors the best original writing on issues relating to Air Force counter-WMD and nuclear enterprise operations. The deadline for submissions is March 31, 2014. For more information, please visit our web-site. The following news articles, papers, and other information sources do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the Air University, U.S. Air Force, or Department of Defense. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. FEATURED ITEM: “Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad: US Strategic Modernization over the Next Thirty Years.” By Jon B. Wolfsthal, Jeffrey Lewis, Marc Quint, January 7, 2014. http://cns.miis.edu/trillion_dollar_nuclear_triad/index.htm The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) announces the release of its latest publication, "The Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad: US Strategic Modernization over the Next Thirty Years." The report concludes that the United States will likely spend over $1 trillion during the next three decades to maintain its current nuclear arsenal and purchase their replacement systems. The necessary level of procurement spending, as a percentage of the defense budget, will peak at levels comparable to the Reagan-era build-up of nuclear forces. Outreach Journal Feedback or sign-up request: [email protected] U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS 1. U.S. to Start Cutting Submarine Missile-Launchers Next Year 2. US to Spend $1 Trillion on Nukes 3. U.S. Needs Modern Nuclear Deterrent Despite High Price Tag -Hagel 4. Embarrassing Air Force Revelation Caps Hagel's Nuclear Tour U.S. COUNTER-WMD 1. Military Looks to Shield Its Satellites from Electromagnetic Attacks HOMELAND SECURITY/THE AMERICAS 1. US Military Satellites Vulnerable in Future Space War – Space Command Chief ASIA/PACIFIC 1. No Joint Command: MOD 2. U.S., South Korea Vow to Face DPRK Threat 3. N. Korea still Worst in Nuclear Material Security 4. Six-Party Talks still Useful Tool to Denuclearize N. Korea: Seoul EUROPE/RUSSIA 1. Russian Strategic Rocket Forces to Modernize Security Systems in 2014 2. Russian Military to Strengthen Radar Defenses in 2014 Issue No.1097, 10 January 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama MIDDLE EAST 1. IAEA Cannot Overlook Military Component in Iranian Nuclear Program - Russian Diplomat 2. Rouhani Defends Iran Nuclear Deal against Hardliners 3. 1st Batch of Chemical Weapons Leaves Syria 4. Iran’s Khamenei: Deterring Evil Worth Talking to Satan 5. Araqchi-Schmid-Sherman’s Trilateral Meeting Ends INDIA/PAKISTAN 1. India Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Prithvi-II Missile COMMENTARY 1. Opposition to B61 Threatens Nuclear Reductions, Deterrence 2. Why the Air Force Should Be Abolished 3. Whatever Happened to Minimum, Credible Deterrence? 4. B-61 Remains Relevant for U.S. Security 5. Hagel’s Nuclear Site Tour Is a Good Start 6. Nuclear Death, Warmed Over 7. Only Nuclear Weapons Can Guarantee Russia's Security 8. US Nuclear Forces, 2014 Global Security Newswire U.S. to Start Cutting Submarine Missile-Launchers Next Year By Rachel Oswald, Global Security Newswire January 6, 2014 The United States next year is slated to begin reducing launch tubes on each of its Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, a new independent report states. The elimination of four operational launch tubes on each of the 14 submarines that make up the Navy's Ohio submarine fleet will be the first substantial reduction in U.S. strategic weapon delivery capability since the 2011 New START accord went into effect, according to Hans Kristensen, who co-authored an assessment on the current status of U.S. nuclear forces. The report was published in the January/February edition of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Nearly three years after the New START pact with Russia entered into force, implementation of the treaty has "been going very slowly," Kristensen said in a brief Monday phone interview. The treaty requires Russia and the United States by 2018 to each reduce their fielded stockpiles of strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 and to cut their arsenals of long-range delivery vehicles down to 700 apiece, with an additional 100 systems allowed in reserve on each side. "The way that the U.S. military has approached implementation of the New START treaty so far has not done anything that has actually affected the actual number of nuclear [delivery vehicles] that are in the war plan," said Kristensen, who directs the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Instead, the Pentagon has focused on reducing the nuclear-delivery capability of selected vehicles, such as heavy bombers, that have already been retired, he said. The Defense Department has the latitude to pursue that approach because the treaty allows so many years -- seven, specifically -- before each side must carry out all mandated reductions, Kristensen said. Once all of the Ohio-class submarines have had their launch tubes capped at 20 each -- a project that is to take place in the 2015-to-2016 time frame -- the United States will be able to deploy no more than 240 submarine- Issue No.1097, 10 January 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 2 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama launched ballistic missiles at any time, according to the report written by Kristensen and Robert Norris, who is also with the Federation of American Scientists. The submarine set to replace aging Ohio-class vessels -- dubbed "SSBN(X)" -- is expected to have only 16 missile tubes, which will reduce further the number of sea-launched ballistic missiles that the United States can deploy. The replacement fleet is also envisioned to be smaller -- only 12 submarines instead of the current 14. The Navy is not expected to begin building the first boat before 2021, and could field the vessel a decade later, according to the Bulletin report. http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/us-2015-begin-reducing-ballistic-missile-launch-tubes/ Return to Top The Diplomat – Japan US to Spend $1 Trillion on Nukes The U.S. will spend $1 trillion over the next 30 years maintaining and modernizing its nukes, according to a new report. By Zachary Keck for The Diplomat January 08, 2014 The United States will spend $1 trillion maintaining and modernizing its nuclear arsenal over the next thirty years, according to a new report from an independent think tank. “Over the next thirty years, the United States plans to spend approximately $1 trillion maintaining the current arsenal, buying replacement systems, and upgrading existing nuclear bombs and warheads,” according to the report, Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad: US Strategic Modernization over the Next 30 Years, which was released by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) on Tuesday. These costs will not be spread out evenly over the long time period. Instead, the authors of the report — Jon B. Wolfsthal, Jeffrey Lewis and Marc Quint — conclude that “Procurement of replacement platforms and associated warheads will peak during a four to six year window, sometime after 2020.” During this peak period, the United States will have to devote as much as three percent of its annual defense budgets to its nuclear arsenal. This is similar to the percentage of the defense budget that was devoted to modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal during Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, according to the report. The CNS figures are roughly consistent with those of the Congressional Budget Office, which projected last month that the U.S. will spend $355 billion over the next decade on its nuclear arsenal. The new report is based on a year-long study CNS undertook to estimate the cost of maintaining and modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal. As the author’s note in the report, “The United States government does not know with any accuracy how much it spends annually on its nuclear deterrent, or how much it will cost to replace the current [nuclear] triad.” Because of this, the authors contend, U.S. lawmakers and policymakers have been able to avoid a robust debate on the strategic utility of maintaining and modernizing the nuclear triad amid an increasingly tight fiscal climate. According to the newly published figures of the Federation of Atomic Scientists (FAS), the U.S. currently has a stockpile of 4,650 nuclear warheads,