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(CPC) Outreach Journal #1104 USAF Counterproliferation Center (CPC) Outreach Journal Issue No. 1104, 28 February 2014 Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal! As part of the CPC’s mission to develop Air Force, DoD, and other USG leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions on unconventional weapons. These discussions include news articles, papers, and other information sources that address issues pertinent to the U.S. national security community. It is our hope that this information resources will help enhance the overall awareness of these important national security issues and lead to the further discussion of options for dealing with the potential use of unconventional weapons. The CPC is seeking submissions for its annual General Charles A. Horner award, which honors the best original writing on issues relating to Air Force counter-WMD and nuclear enterprise operations. The deadline for submissions is March 31, 2014. For more information, please visit our web-site. The following news articles, papers, and other information sources do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the Air University, U.S. Air Force, or Department of Defense. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. FEATURED ITEM: Defense Intelligence Agency: “ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT”. Statement Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, United States Senate, 11 February 2014, by Michael T. Flynn, Lieutenant General, U.S. Army, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency. 34 pages http://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/2014_DIA_SFR_SASC_ATA_FINAL.pdf Gen Flynn’s testimony begins first with an assessment of Afghanistan, where the Department of Defense (DoD), the IC, DIA, and our coalition partners remain actively engaged supporting military operations against the threat of al‐ Qa’ida and other anti‐government of Afghanistan forces, transition to global threats, and conclude with an overview of other regional challenges. Outreach Journal Feedback or sign-up request: [email protected] Return to Top U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS 1. Missile Officers' Nuke Test Scores Fell Flat during Alleged Cheating 2. Nuclear Triad to Survive Hagel Cuts in Pentagon Spending U.S. ARMS CONTROL 1. Silo Reduction Impact Study to START, Despite Warnings 2. Ex-Russian Officer: U.S. Has Violated Arms Control Pact 'Numerous' Times HOMELAND SECURITY/THE AMERICAS 1. Budget Seeks Missile Fixes, Future Technology 2. US Must Closely Watch China's Defence Technology: David Shear 3. Faster Anthrax Detection Could Speed Bioterror Response and Save Millions in Decontamination Costs, MU Study Finds ASIA/PACIFIC 1. China: 'Shuttle Diplomacy' with Koreas Aimed at Denuclearization 2. Chinese Influence Over North Korea Waning 3. Japan to Return Weapons-Grade Plutonium U.S. Provided during Cold War 4. N. Korea Fires 4 Short-Range Ballistic Missiles 5. China Wants Explanation of Japan Nuclear Stockpile Issue No.1104, 28 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama EUROPE/RUSSIA 1. Updated Strategic Missile Troops to Protect Russia from possible Nuclear Wars 2. Russia Plans $55.3Bln Expenditure On Aerospace Defense by 2020 MIDDLE EAST 1. Final Nuclear Deal with Iran by July, top US Negotiator Says 2. Chemical Arms Watchdog Split on Syria Delays 3. Discussing Iran’s Ballistic Missiles Could Undermine N. Talks 4. Steinitz after Meeting US’s Top Iran Negotiator: Israel Reserves Right to Act Independently 5. Iran Needs Missiles to Deter Enemies: Leader’s Advisor 6. Syria Agrees New April Target to Remove Chemicals: Diplomats 7. Iran Has Resumed Work at Suspicious Military Base 8. Sources: UN Nuclear Agency Opted Against Sensitive Iran Report 9. Arak Heavy Water Reactor 85 Percent Completed, Iranian MP Says 10. FM: Iran’s Nuclear Program to Remain Intact 11. Iranian Missile Capacity Remains Expected for Next Year: U.S. Commander INDIA/PAKISTAN 1. Hydraulic Snags Led to Night Trial Failure of Agni-I Missile 2. Senior Official: Pakistani Leaders to Retain Nuclear-Arms Authority in Crises COMMENTARY 1. Preventing Nuclear Terrorism 2. The Threat to America’s Nukes 3. Chuck Hagel's Nuclear Exemption 4. Iran Missile Progress, US New Bête Noire 5. The Dangerous Degradation of the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal The Omaha World Herald – Omaha, NE Missile Officers' Nuke Test Scores Fell Flat during Alleged Cheating By Robert Burns, Associated Press (AP) February 22, 2014 WASHINGTON (AP) -- Last summer, when dozens of nuclear missile officers allegedly cheated on exams, test scores were among the lowest of the year, according to Air Force records obtained by The Associated Press. That is the opposite of what might be expected if answers were being shared as widely as officials allege. Body Copy: Were they inept cheaters? Was there, in fact, no sharing of answers during that period? Were test questions so difficult that even the cheating by some failed to produce higher-than-usual scores for the group as a whole? The Air Force isn't saying. It notes that tests are not identical each month, and thus score "variances can be expected." The facts of the tainted testing are still under investigation by the Air Force Office of Special Investigations. It ranks as the worst such scandal in the history of the intercontinental ballistic missile force and is among a series of security lapses and slip-ups that have plagued the ICBM corps over the past year. The missteps prompted Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel to launch two probes of the entire nuclear force to find root causes for leadership lapses and other problems steps Hagel deemed necessary to restore public confidence. Issue No.1104, 28 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 2 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Hagel says he believes the nuclear force remains secure and reliable but says "something is wrong." The alleged cheating has been described as a symptom of mismanagement by commanders who have given too much weight to monthly test scores in determining which launch officers get promoted. More broadly, it reflects a degree of turmoil inside a force responsible for 450 nuclear-tipped Minuteman 3 missiles that stand launch-ready in underground silos in Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado and Nebraska. The alleged cheating was uncovered in January during an Air Force investigation of illegal drug use. Two officers questioned in that probe happened to be members of the 341st Missile Wing at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont., and at least one stands accused of having transmitted test answers to colleagues via text message. The exam in question, known as a T-1, is given monthly and is meant to test knowledge of classified procedures for targeting and launching the Minuteman 3s, the nation's only land-based nuclear missile. Over the course of a year, the tests cover different segments of a long list of launch tasks. In addition to these and other written proficiency tests, missile launch officers undergo classroom instruction and routine training on launch simulators; most do 24-hour shifts "on alert" in underground launch control centers about eight times a month with a team of two officers responsible for 10 missiles. The Air Force has focused its investigation on Malmstrom, where officials say the cheating took place during late summer. Notably, in the months after the cheating allegedly ended, scores at Malmstrom improved dramatically. Neither of these patterns relatively weaker scores during the period of alleged cheating, and much improved results later seems to fit with the scenario described by Air Force officials in January when they announced the cheating investigation. Brian Weeden, who served on Minuteman 3 crews at Malmstrom in 2000-04, said that while he is not privy to inside information about the investigation, one possible explanation for weaker overall scores in August and September is that the test questions for cheaters and noncheaters alike may have been more difficult than usual. "I saw that happen in my time," he said. Or, Weeden said, the weaker-than-expected results might reflect a slump in the quality of instruction prior to those tests. Initially the Air Force said 34 officers assigned to the 341st Missile Wing at Malmstrom were implicated; that later was raised to 92. All have been taken off launch duty, creating a shortage that has been filled in part by temporarily augmenting Malmstrom with 10 launch officers each from ICBM bases in North Dakota and Wyoming. About 40 of the 92 are alleged to have transmitted or received test answers; the rest are accused of knowing but not reporting it. Gen. Mark Welsh, the Air Force's top general, told reporters on Jan. 15 that "the indications are that this compromise that we're aware of happened in the August-September timeframe." A spokesman, Lt. Col. Brett Ashworth, said it's not clear whether the cheating was only in August or only in September, or in both months. Test results obtained by the Associated Press under the Freedom of Information Act suggest a different scenario. All three of the squadrons that operate the Minuteman 3 force at Malmstrom had average or weaker-than-usual T- 1 test scores in August-September. Of the 44 members of the 10th Missile Squadron tested in August, for example, 79 percent recorded perfect scores. That was about the norm during the spring and summer months of 2013 but well below most other months. In September the squadron had 42 percent perfect scores the weakest of any month in 2013.
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