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Housing and Economic Development Needs HEDNA Appendices Leicester and Leicestershire Authorities and the Leicester and Leicestershire Enterprise Partnership January 2017 Prepared by GL Hearn GL Hearn Limited 280 High Holborn London WC1V 7EE T +44 (0)20 7851 4900 glhearn.com HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 GL Hearn Page 2 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 Contents Section Page 1 DEFINING THE HOUSING MARKET AREA 15 2 DEFINING THE FUNCTIONAL ECONOMIC MARKET AREA 40 3 MARKET SIGNALS OF COMPARABLE AUTHORITIES 49 4 FURTHER AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS 51 5 ANALYSIS OF STARTER HOME HOUSING NEEDS 71 6 LOCAL AUTHORITY LEVEL STARTER HOMES ANALYSIS 82 7 ADDITIONAL LOCAL LEVEL DEMOGRAPHIC FIGURES 106 8 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION 127 9 RESIDENTIAL MARKET PERCEPTIONS FROM ESTATE AND LETTING AGENTS 132 GL Hearn Page 3 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 List of Figures FIGURE 1: CURDS-DEFINED STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET AREAS 18 FIGURE 2: CURDS-DEFINED LOCAL HOUSING MARKET AREAS 19 FIGURE 3: CURDS-DEFINED SILVER STANDARD HOUSING MARKET AREAS 20 FIGURE 4: DTZ-DEFINED SPATIAL BOUNDARIES IN EAST MIDLANDS 21 FIGURE 5: UNDERSTANDING HOUSING DEMAND DRIVERS 22 FIGURE 6: HOUSE PRICE PAID IN 2015 24 FIGURE 7: MEDIAN PRICE BY TYPE OF RESIDENCE 2015 25 FIGURE 8: GROSS WEIGHTED MIGRATION FLOWS 29 FIGURE 9: TRAVEL TO WORK AREAS (2011) 33 FIGURE 10: LOCATION OF WORKPLACE FOR LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE RESIDENTS EXCLUDING SELF-CONTAINED FLOWS (+1,000 PEOPLE) 36 FIGURE 11: BOUNDARY OF THE LEICESTER PRINCIPAL URBAN AREA 38 FIGURE 12: LOCAL ENTERPRISE PARTNERSHIP AREAS 41 FIGURE 13: RETAIL CENTRES IN MIDLANDS (EXPENDITURE IN £MIL) 42 FIGURE 14: LEISURE PROVISION 44 FIGURE 15: TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 47 FIGURE 16: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – HMA 74 FIGURE 17: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – LEICESTER 82 FIGURE 18: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – BLABY 85 FIGURE 19: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – CHARNWOOD 88 FIGURE 20: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – HARBOROUGH 91 FIGURE 21: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – HINCKLEY & BOSWORTH 94 FIGURE 22: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – MELTON 97 GL Hearn Page 4 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 FIGURE 23: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – NWL 100 FIGURE 24: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – OADBY & WIGSTON 103 FIGURE 25: AGE STRUCTURE – LEICESTER CITY (2014) 106 FIGURE 26: AGE STRUCTURE – COUNTY (2014) 106 FIGURE 27: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS 107 FIGURE 28: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – LEICESTER 108 FIGURE 29: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – BLABY 109 FIGURE 30: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – CHARNWOOD110 FIGURE 31: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – HARBOROUGH111 FIGURE 32: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – HINCKLEY & BOSWORTH 112 FIGURE 33: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – MELTON 113 FIGURE 34: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – NWL 114 FIGURE 35: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – OADBY & WIGSTON 115 FIGURE 36: POPULATION AGE PROFILE (2015) 116 GL Hearn Page 5 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 List of Tables TABLE 1: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES AND CHANGES SINCE 2000 26 TABLE 2: SELF-CONTAINMENT OF MIGRATION FLOWS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL AUTHORITIES 2010-11 27 TABLE 3: SELF-CONTAINMENT OF SHORT DISTANCE MIGRATION FLOWS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL AUTHORITIES 2010-11 28 TABLE 4: TOP GROSS FLOWS PER '000 POPULATION FOR EACH AUTHORITY 30 TABLE 5: SELF-CONTAINMENT OF SHORT DISTANCE MIGRATION FLOWS FOR THE TOTAL OF THE STUDY AREA 31 TABLE 6: STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT MIGRATION FLOWS (2011-2014) 32 TABLE 7: SELF-CONTAINMENT IN TRAVEL TO WORK AREAS 34 TABLE 8: SELF-CONTAINMENT IN LOCAL AUTHORITY - MERGED OUTPUT AREAS 35 TABLE 9: STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT COMMUTING FLOWS (2011-2014) 37 TABLE 10: MAIN RETAIL DESTINATIONS IN THE STUDY AREA 43 TABLE 11: COMPARABLE AUTHORITIES 49 TABLE 12: HMA AUTHORITIES BENCHMARKED AGAINST THEIR MOST SIMILAR COMPARATORS 50 TABLE 13: LOWER QUARTILE SALES PRICES BY TYPE (2015) 54 TABLE 14: LOWER QUARTILE PRIVATE RENTS BY SIZE AND LOCATION (YEAR TO MARCH 2016) – PER MONTH 55 TABLE 15: AFFORDABILITY THRESHOLDS 56 TABLE 16: MAIN SOURCES FOR ASSESSING THE CURRENT UNMET NEED FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING 57 TABLE 17: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN UNSUITABLE HOUSING 58 TABLE 18: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN UNSUITABLE HOUSING 59 TABLE 19: UNSUITABLE HOUSING BY TENURE AND NUMBERS TO TAKE FORWARD INTO AFFORDABILITY MODELLING 59 TABLE 20: ESTIMATED CURRENT AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED 60 TABLE 21: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED FROM NEWLY FORMING HOUSEHOLDS (PER ANNUM) 62 GL Hearn Page 6 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 TABLE 22: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS (PER ANNUM) 63 TABLE 23: ANALYSIS OF PAST SOCIAL/AFFORDABLE RENTED HOUSING SUPPLY (PER ANNUM – BASED ON DATA FOR THE 2012-15 PERIOD) 64 TABLE 24: SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING 64 TABLE 25: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED– HMA 65 TABLE 26: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED PER ANNUM – BY HMA AND LOCAL AUTHORITY - (2011-36) 65 TABLE 27: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED PER ANNUM – BY HMA AND LOCAL AUTHORITY - (2011-31) 66 TABLE 28: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (COMPARING THE HEDNA WITH THE 2014 SHMA) 66 TABLE 29: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (HOUSEHOLDS) – HMA 72 TABLE 30: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS AGED UNDER 35) – HMA 73 TABLE 31: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – HMA 74 TABLE 32: ESTIMATED CURRENT TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES – HMA 75 TABLE 33: ESTIMATED PROJECTED TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – HMA 75 TABLE 34: INCOME REQUIRED TO PURCHASE STARTER HOME – HMA 76 TABLE 35: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE (UNITED KINGDOM) 77 TABLE 36: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE FOR STARTER HOMES TARGET GROUP – HMA 78 TABLE 37: AFFORDABILITY OF STARTER HOMES BY AGE BAND 78 TABLE 38: ESTIMATED CURRENT NEED FOR STARTER HOMES 79 TABLE 39: ESTIMATED FUTURE NEED FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) 79 TABLE 40: TOTAL NEED FOR STARTER HOMES OVER DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS 80 TABLE 41: TOTAL ANNUAL NEED FOR STARTER HOMES OVER DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS – BY LOCAL AUTHORITY 81 TABLE 42: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS) – LEICESTER 82 TABLE 43: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS AGED UNDER 35) – LEICESTER 82 GL Hearn Page 7 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 TABLE 44: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – LEICESTER 83 TABLE 45: ESTIMATED CURRENT TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES – LEICESTER 83 TABLE 46: ESTIMATED PROJECTED TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – LEICESTER 83 TABLE 47: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVEL REQUIRED TO ACCESS STARTER HOMES – LEICESTER 83 TABLE 48: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE FOR STARTER HOMES TARGET GROUP – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 49: AFFORDABILITY OF STARTER HOMES BY AGE BAND – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 50: ESTIMATED CURRENT NEED FOR STARTER HOMES – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 51: ESTIMATED FUTURE NEED FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 52: TOTAL NEED FOR STARTER HOMES OVER DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 53: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS) – BLABY 85 TABLE 54: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS AGED UNDER 35) – BLABY 85 TABLE 55: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – BLABY 86 TABLE 56: ESTIMATED CURRENT TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES – BLABY 86 TABLE 57: ESTIMATED PROJECTED TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – BLABY 86 TABLE 58: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVEL REQUIRED TO ACCESS STARTER HOMES – BLABY 86 TABLE 59: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE FOR STARTER HOMES TARGET GROUP – BLABY 86 TABLE 60: AFFORDABILITY OF STARTER HOMES BY AGE BAND – BLABY 87 TABLE 61: ESTIMATED CURRENT NEED FOR STARTER HOMES – BLABY 87 TABLE 62: ESTIMATED FUTURE NEED FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – BLABY 87 TABLE 63: TOTAL NEED FOR STARTER HOMES OVER DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS – BLABY 87 TABLE 64: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS) – CHARNWOOD 87 GL Hearn Page 8 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 TABLE 65: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS AGED UNDER 35) – CHARNWOOD 88 TABLE 66: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE –
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