HEDNA Appendices Leicester and Leicestershire Authorities and the Leicester and Leicestershire Enterprise Partnership January 2017 Prepared by GL Hearn GL Hearn Limited 280 High Holborn London WC1V 7EE T +44 (0)20 7851 4900 glhearn.com HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 GL Hearn Page 2 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 Contents Section Page 1 DEFINING THE HOUSING MARKET AREA 15 2 DEFINING THE FUNCTIONAL ECONOMIC MARKET AREA 40 3 MARKET SIGNALS OF COMPARABLE AUTHORITIES 49 4 FURTHER AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS 51 5 ANALYSIS OF STARTER HOME HOUSING NEEDS 71 6 LOCAL AUTHORITY LEVEL STARTER HOMES ANALYSIS 82 7 ADDITIONAL LOCAL LEVEL DEMOGRAPHIC FIGURES 106 8 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION 127 9 RESIDENTIAL MARKET PERCEPTIONS FROM ESTATE AND LETTING AGENTS 132 GL Hearn Page 3 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 List of Figures FIGURE 1: CURDS-DEFINED STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET AREAS 18 FIGURE 2: CURDS-DEFINED LOCAL HOUSING MARKET AREAS 19 FIGURE 3: CURDS-DEFINED SILVER STANDARD HOUSING MARKET AREAS 20 FIGURE 4: DTZ-DEFINED SPATIAL BOUNDARIES IN EAST MIDLANDS 21 FIGURE 5: UNDERSTANDING HOUSING DEMAND DRIVERS 22 FIGURE 6: HOUSE PRICE PAID IN 2015 24 FIGURE 7: MEDIAN PRICE BY TYPE OF RESIDENCE 2015 25 FIGURE 8: GROSS WEIGHTED MIGRATION FLOWS 29 FIGURE 9: TRAVEL TO WORK AREAS (2011) 33 FIGURE 10: LOCATION OF WORKPLACE FOR LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE RESIDENTS EXCLUDING SELF-CONTAINED FLOWS (+1,000 PEOPLE) 36 FIGURE 11: BOUNDARY OF THE LEICESTER PRINCIPAL URBAN AREA 38 FIGURE 12: LOCAL ENTERPRISE PARTNERSHIP AREAS 41 FIGURE 13: RETAIL CENTRES IN MIDLANDS (EXPENDITURE IN £MIL) 42 FIGURE 14: LEISURE PROVISION 44 FIGURE 15: TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 47 FIGURE 16: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – HMA 74 FIGURE 17: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – LEICESTER 82 FIGURE 18: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – BLABY 85 FIGURE 19: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – CHARNWOOD 88 FIGURE 20: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – HARBOROUGH 91 FIGURE 21: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – HINCKLEY & BOSWORTH 94 FIGURE 22: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – MELTON 97 GL Hearn Page 4 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 FIGURE 23: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – NWL 100 FIGURE 24: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – OADBY & WIGSTON 103 FIGURE 25: AGE STRUCTURE – LEICESTER CITY (2014) 106 FIGURE 26: AGE STRUCTURE – COUNTY (2014) 106 FIGURE 27: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS 107 FIGURE 28: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – LEICESTER 108 FIGURE 29: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – BLABY 109 FIGURE 30: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – CHARNWOOD110 FIGURE 31: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – HARBOROUGH111 FIGURE 32: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – HINCKLEY & BOSWORTH 112 FIGURE 33: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – MELTON 113 FIGURE 34: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – NWL 114 FIGURE 35: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2015 – OADBY & WIGSTON 115 FIGURE 36: POPULATION AGE PROFILE (2015) 116 GL Hearn Page 5 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 List of Tables TABLE 1: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES AND CHANGES SINCE 2000 26 TABLE 2: SELF-CONTAINMENT OF MIGRATION FLOWS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL AUTHORITIES 2010-11 27 TABLE 3: SELF-CONTAINMENT OF SHORT DISTANCE MIGRATION FLOWS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL AUTHORITIES 2010-11 28 TABLE 4: TOP GROSS FLOWS PER '000 POPULATION FOR EACH AUTHORITY 30 TABLE 5: SELF-CONTAINMENT OF SHORT DISTANCE MIGRATION FLOWS FOR THE TOTAL OF THE STUDY AREA 31 TABLE 6: STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT MIGRATION FLOWS (2011-2014) 32 TABLE 7: SELF-CONTAINMENT IN TRAVEL TO WORK AREAS 34 TABLE 8: SELF-CONTAINMENT IN LOCAL AUTHORITY - MERGED OUTPUT AREAS 35 TABLE 9: STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT COMMUTING FLOWS (2011-2014) 37 TABLE 10: MAIN RETAIL DESTINATIONS IN THE STUDY AREA 43 TABLE 11: COMPARABLE AUTHORITIES 49 TABLE 12: HMA AUTHORITIES BENCHMARKED AGAINST THEIR MOST SIMILAR COMPARATORS 50 TABLE 13: LOWER QUARTILE SALES PRICES BY TYPE (2015) 54 TABLE 14: LOWER QUARTILE PRIVATE RENTS BY SIZE AND LOCATION (YEAR TO MARCH 2016) – PER MONTH 55 TABLE 15: AFFORDABILITY THRESHOLDS 56 TABLE 16: MAIN SOURCES FOR ASSESSING THE CURRENT UNMET NEED FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING 57 TABLE 17: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN UNSUITABLE HOUSING 58 TABLE 18: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN UNSUITABLE HOUSING 59 TABLE 19: UNSUITABLE HOUSING BY TENURE AND NUMBERS TO TAKE FORWARD INTO AFFORDABILITY MODELLING 59 TABLE 20: ESTIMATED CURRENT AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED 60 TABLE 21: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED FROM NEWLY FORMING HOUSEHOLDS (PER ANNUM) 62 GL Hearn Page 6 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 TABLE 22: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS (PER ANNUM) 63 TABLE 23: ANALYSIS OF PAST SOCIAL/AFFORDABLE RENTED HOUSING SUPPLY (PER ANNUM – BASED ON DATA FOR THE 2012-15 PERIOD) 64 TABLE 24: SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING 64 TABLE 25: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED– HMA 65 TABLE 26: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED PER ANNUM – BY HMA AND LOCAL AUTHORITY - (2011-36) 65 TABLE 27: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED PER ANNUM – BY HMA AND LOCAL AUTHORITY - (2011-31) 66 TABLE 28: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (COMPARING THE HEDNA WITH THE 2014 SHMA) 66 TABLE 29: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (HOUSEHOLDS) – HMA 72 TABLE 30: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS AGED UNDER 35) – HMA 73 TABLE 31: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – HMA 74 TABLE 32: ESTIMATED CURRENT TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES – HMA 75 TABLE 33: ESTIMATED PROJECTED TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – HMA 75 TABLE 34: INCOME REQUIRED TO PURCHASE STARTER HOME – HMA 76 TABLE 35: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE (UNITED KINGDOM) 77 TABLE 36: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE FOR STARTER HOMES TARGET GROUP – HMA 78 TABLE 37: AFFORDABILITY OF STARTER HOMES BY AGE BAND 78 TABLE 38: ESTIMATED CURRENT NEED FOR STARTER HOMES 79 TABLE 39: ESTIMATED FUTURE NEED FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) 79 TABLE 40: TOTAL NEED FOR STARTER HOMES OVER DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS 80 TABLE 41: TOTAL ANNUAL NEED FOR STARTER HOMES OVER DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS – BY LOCAL AUTHORITY 81 TABLE 42: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS) – LEICESTER 82 TABLE 43: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS AGED UNDER 35) – LEICESTER 82 GL Hearn Page 7 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 TABLE 44: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – LEICESTER 83 TABLE 45: ESTIMATED CURRENT TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES – LEICESTER 83 TABLE 46: ESTIMATED PROJECTED TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – LEICESTER 83 TABLE 47: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVEL REQUIRED TO ACCESS STARTER HOMES – LEICESTER 83 TABLE 48: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE FOR STARTER HOMES TARGET GROUP – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 49: AFFORDABILITY OF STARTER HOMES BY AGE BAND – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 50: ESTIMATED CURRENT NEED FOR STARTER HOMES – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 51: ESTIMATED FUTURE NEED FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 52: TOTAL NEED FOR STARTER HOMES OVER DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS – LEICESTER 84 TABLE 53: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS) – BLABY 85 TABLE 54: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS AGED UNDER 35) – BLABY 85 TABLE 55: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – BLABY 86 TABLE 56: ESTIMATED CURRENT TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES – BLABY 86 TABLE 57: ESTIMATED PROJECTED TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – BLABY 86 TABLE 58: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVEL REQUIRED TO ACCESS STARTER HOMES – BLABY 86 TABLE 59: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE FOR STARTER HOMES TARGET GROUP – BLABY 86 TABLE 60: AFFORDABILITY OF STARTER HOMES BY AGE BAND – BLABY 87 TABLE 61: ESTIMATED CURRENT NEED FOR STARTER HOMES – BLABY 87 TABLE 62: ESTIMATED FUTURE NEED FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) – BLABY 87 TABLE 63: TOTAL NEED FOR STARTER HOMES OVER DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS – BLABY 87 TABLE 64: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS) – CHARNWOOD 87 GL Hearn Page 8 of 134 F :\Documents\Temporary Files\HEDNA Final Documents\HEDNA Appendices (January 2017) (Final for Publication).docx HEDNA Appendices, January 2017 TABLE 65: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS AGED UNDER 35) – CHARNWOOD 88 TABLE 66: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE –