Increasing Transit Ridership: Lessons from the Most Successful Transit Systems in the 1990S
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MTI Report 01-22 Norman Y. Mineta International Institute for Surface Transportation Policy Studies Created by Congress in 1991 Increasing Transit Ridership: Lessons from the Most Successful Transit Systems in the 1990s Mineta Transportation Institute San Jos é State University San Jose, CA 95192-0219 MTI Report 01-22 Increasing Transit Ridership: Lessons from the Most Successful Transit Systems in the 1990s June 2002 Brian Taylor Peter Haas and Brent Boyd Daniel Baldwin Hess Hiroyuki Iseki Allison Yoh a publication of the The Mineta Transportation Institute College of Business San José State University San Jose, CA 95192-0219 Created by Congress in 1991 Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. FHWA/CA/TO-2002/22 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Increasing Transit Ridership: Lessons from the Most Successful June 2002 Transit Systems in the 1990s 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Authors 8. Performing Organization Report No. Brian Taylor, Peter Haas, B. Boyd, D. B. Haas, H. Iseki, A Yoh 01-22 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. Mineta Transportation Institute College of Business—BT500 San José State University 11. Contract or Grant No. San Jose, CA 95129-0219 65W136 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered California Department of Transportation U.S. Department of Transportation Final Report Sacramento, CA 95819 Research and Special Programs Administration 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 400 7th Street, SW Washington, DC 20590-0001 15. Supplementary Notes This research project was financially sponsored by the U.S Department of Transportation's Research and Special Programs Administration and by the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). 16. Abstract This study systematically examines recent trends in public transit ridership in the U.S. during the 1990s. Specifically, this analysis focuses on agencies that increased ridership during the latter half of the decade. While transit ridership increased steadily by 13 percent nationwide between 1995 and 1999, not all systems experienced ridership growth equally. While some agencies increased ridership dramatically, some did so only minimally, and still others lost riders. What sets these agencies apart from each other? What explains the uneven growth in ridership? 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Transit, ridership, transit fares, No restrictions. This document is available to the public transit buses through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 180 $20.00 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Copyright © 2002 by MTI All rights reserved Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 99-201098507 To order this publication, please contact the following: Mineta Transportation Institute College of Business BT-550 San José State University San Jose, CA 95192-0219 Tel (408) 924-7560 Fax (408) 924-7565 e-mail: [email protected] http://transweb.sjsu.edu a publication of the The Mineta Transportation Institute College of Business San José State University San Jose, CA 95192-0219 Created by Congress in 1991 Table of Contents i TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE . 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 3 OVERVIEW: UNDERSTANDING TRANSIT RIDERSHIP GROWTH . 7 PREVIOUS RESEARCH: WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE FACTORS AFFECTING TRANSIT USE? . 9 LITERATURE REVIEWS AND CASE STUDIES . 10 SURVEYS OF AND INTERVIEWS WITH TRANSIT MANAGERS . 11 STATISTICAL ANALYSES OF A TRANSIT AGENCY OR REGION . 13 CROSS-SECTIONAL STATISTICAL ANALYSES . 18 SUMMARY . 21 THE BIG PICTURE: RECENT TRENDS IN TRANSIT PATRONAGE . 25 EFFECTS OF INTERNAL FACTORS ON TRANSIT RIDERSHIP . 28 Changes in the Price Charged for Transit Service . 28 Changes in the Level of Service Provided . 29 EFFECTS OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON TRANSIT RIDERSHIP . 30 Employment Levels and Transit Ridership . 31 Gross Domestic Product and Transit Ridership Levels . 32 Wage Levels and Ridership . 33 SUMMARY OF EFFECTS OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS ON RIDERSHIP . 34 Mineta Transportation Institute ii Table of Contents THE BRIGHT PICTURE: ANALYZING TRANSIT SYSTEMS WITH SIGNIFICANT RIDERSHIP GAINS DURING THE 1990S . 37 SUMMARY OF AGENCIES THAT INCREASED RIDERSHIP . 38 Transit Modes Operated . 38 Agency Size . 40 Geographical Dispersion . 42 CHANGES IN FARES AND SERVICE LEVELS AMONG TRANSIT AGENCIES THAT INCREASED RIDERSHIP . 44 Fares . 44 Service Level Changes . 46 EFFECT OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON TRANSIT RIDERSHIP . 49 Unemployment Rate . 49 Total Employment . 50 SUMMARY . 53 SURVEY OF SUCCESSFUL TRANSIT SYSTEMS: WHAT DO THE EXPERTS THINK EXPLAINS RIDERSHIP GROWTH? . 55 SURVEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS . 56 INTERNAL FACTORS . 57 Service Improvements . 59 Marketing . 65 Partnerships and Community Collaborations . 67 Service Quality and Amenities . 69 EXTERNAL FACTORS . 73 SUMMARY . 77 EXPLAINING TRANSIT RIDERSHIP INCREASES: CASE STUDIES OF NATIONAL LEADERS . 79 INTRODUCTION . 79 PROFILES OF RESPONDING AGENCIES . 81 ATC (Las Vegas, NV) . 81 Autoridad Metropolitana de Autobuses (Metropolitan Bus Company, San Juan, Puerto Rico) . 82 Caltrain (San Francisco Bay Area, CA) . 83 Gainesville Regional Transit System (Gainesville, FL) . 85 Green Bus Line (Brooklyn, NY) . 86 Mineta Transportation Institute Table of Contents iii Long Beach Transit (Long Beach, CA) . 88 Metro Atlanta . 89 Milwaukee County Transit System (Milwaukee, WI) . 90 NYC Transit (New York, NY) . 92 OMNITRANS (Riverside, CA) . 95 Pace Suburban Bus Division (Chicago, IL) . 96 Portland Tri-Met (Portland, OR) . 97 SYNTHESIS OF CASE STUDY DATA . 98 Fare Structures Changes . 100 Coordination With Employers . 101 Use of Market Research . 101 Economic and Demographic Change . 102 Route Restructuring . 102 SUMMARY . 102 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . 105 APPX. A. LITERATURE REVIEW . 109 APPX. B. DATA TABLES . 149 APPX. C. AGENCIES THAT INCREASED FIXED- ROUTE RIDERSHIP BETWEEN 1995 AND 1999 . 155 APPX. D. SAMPLE SURVEY . 169 END NOTES . 173 ACRONYMS. 175 BIBLIOGRAPHY . 177 Mineta Transportation Institute Table of Contents iv Mineta Transportation Institute List of Figures v LIST OF FIGURES 1 Total Unlinked Trips (1907-1999) . 25 2 Total Unlinked Trips (1980-1999) . 26 3 Unlinked Trips per Person . 27 4 Average Fare per Unlinked Trip . 28 5 Unlinked Trips vs. Average Fare per Trip . 29 6 Unlinked Trips per Person vs. Average Fare per Trip . 29 7 Revenue Vehicle Miles (1991-1999) . 29 8 Revenue Vehicle Miles per Person (1991-1999) . 29 9 Unlinked Trips vs. Revenue Vehicle Miles . 30 10 Unlinked Trips per Person vs. Revenue Vehicle Miles per Person . 30 11 Unemployment Rate (1991-1999) . 31 12 Unlinked Trips vs. Unemployment Rate . 31 13 Gross Domestic Product (1991-1999) . 32 14 Gross Domestic Product per Person (1991-1999) . 32 15 Gross Domestic Product vs. Unlinked Trips . 33 16 Average Hourly Wage (1991-1999) . 33 17 Unlinked Trips vs. Average Hourly Wage . 34 18 Trips per Person vs. Average Hourly Wage ($2001) . 34 19 Scatterplot of Fare and Ridership Changes . 46 20 Scatterplot of Revenue-Hour Increase and Ridership Increase . 48 21 Scatterplot of Ridership Increase and Unemployment Rate Change (by MSA) . 50 22 Scatterplot of Ridership Increase and Absolute Employment Changes . 52 23 Scatterplot of Increase in Ridership and Growth in Per Capita Income by MSA . 53 Mineta Transportation Institute vi List of Figures Mineta Transportation Institute List of Tables vii LIST OF TABLES 1 Correlation Coefficients of External Factors and Transit Ridership: 1995-1999 . 4 2 Direct and Indirect Strategies for the Evaluation of the Successes of Transit Ridership Project in the Study by European Commission Transportation Research (1996) . 11 3 Statistical Results of Kohn’s Model (2000) . ..